[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222134 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-222330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN MO/WCNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222134Z - 222330Z

CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ANY ISOLD DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN MO AND PERHAPS WCNTRL IL. GIVEN
EXPECTED RATHER ISOLD NATURE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...A SEVERE WATCH IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

CONTINUING TO MONITOR GRADUALLY EVOLVING/DEEPENING CU FIELD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN MO/WCNTRL IL...WITH ONE ISOLD
STORM HAVING ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SE IA INTO IOWA AND KEOKUK
COUNTIES AS OF 2115Z. AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
ALONG/WEST OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE AIRMASS IS
HOT/MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE. RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR 21Z AMBIENT
CONDITIONS SUGGEST MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG -- HIGHEST
ACROSS IA -- AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CONV INHIBITION. LATHROP MO/SLATER IA
PROFILERS SUGGESTS APPROX 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. IN SPITE
OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY/WEAK INHIBITION AND ADEQUATE
ORGANIZATIONAL SHEAR...PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE/WEAK BACKGROUND
DYNAMIC ASCENT SHOULD KEEP DEVELOPMENT RATHER ISOLD IN NATURE.

..GUYER.. 06/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

41959500 42419370 42529207 42069153 40559046 38989114
39729399 40939475 

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