[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220032 
MTZ000-220200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 220032Z - 220200Z

STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT CONTINUE
SPREADING NEWD TOWARD ERN MT. SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AS THE
STORMS CONTINUE NEWD. PORTIONS OF ERN MT ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
WW.

LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAVE ADVECTED INTO ERN MT N OF A
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN THROUGH ERN MT. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THE 00Z RAOB
FROM GLASGOW SHOWS AROUND 4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WEAK CAP AND 40 KT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SUGGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS ERN MT. WARM ADVECTION IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER ERN
MT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND STRENGTHENS...WHICH MIGHT PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE STORMS. A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION MID-LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...ONCE STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED
AS SUPERCELLS AND OR BOW ECHOES...THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE DESPITE THE INCREASING INHIBITION.

..DIAL.. 06/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

45610546 46140680 46590838 48200893 48870807 48320620
46950476 45940464 

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