[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201239 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-201415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1399
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND / W CENTRAL MN / NERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503...

VALID 201239Z - 201415Z

STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW.

WELL-DEVELOPED BOW ECHO CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SERN ND AT 45
KT...WHILE ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS -- INCLUDING A SPLIT SUPERCELL
PAIR -- ARE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE BOWING MCS.  EXPECT SEVERE
THREAT TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION.  

EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT NRN PORTIONS OF BOW MAY AFFECT COUNTIES
JUST N OF WW -- ACROSS E CENTRAL ND AND NWRN MN -- IN THE NEXT 1 1/2
TO 2 HOURS OR SO.  HOWEVER...AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS
WELL WITHIN WW...THUS EXPECT THAT A SLIGHTLY MORE EWD MOVEMENT OF
BOW MAY EVOLVE WITH TIME -- KEEPING MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITHIN WW. 
EITHER WAY...ANY THREAT N OF WW WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO ONLY A
TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES...AND THUS NEW WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
ATTM.  SHOULD THREAT INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY N OF WW WITH
TIME...A REPLACEMENT WW COULD BECOME MORE LIKELY.

..GOSS.. 06/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

46799942 47059869 47569711 47699602 47259499 45709493
45699867 46309893 

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