[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 132243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132242 
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-140015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SRN INTO ECNTRL MN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 471...

VALID 132242Z - 140015Z

...TORNADO WATCH 471 CONTINUES AND AREA EAST OF WATCH ACROSS SRN MN
IS BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AND ADDITIONAL WW...

DESPITE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN
AN AIRMASS THAT IS ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON
THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...UPPER LOW IS STILL UPSTREAM...AND
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED.
RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY INCREASES
THROUGH 00Z...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO AROUND 1800 J/KG. BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MODESTLY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
AND LCL HEIGHTS ARE RATHER HIGH. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A
LARGE HAIL THREAT...AND SHOULD SFC WINDS BECOME BACKED...AN
INCREASED TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST.

..TAYLOR.. 06/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

43229677 44449784 46079669 46079430 45629294 44869270
44159287 43629378 43399540 

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