[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130429 
KSZ000-OKZ000-130630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 130429Z - 130630Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

STRONG JET CONTINUES TO DIG INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER
REGION...WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREADING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  PERSISTENT VIGOROUS CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING EAST OF DODGE CITY TOWARD THE WICHITA AREA APPEARS TO BE
ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS COOLING.  ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO COOLING/ STABILIZATION OF
SUPPORTING INFLOW SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT.

HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND IS ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION IN
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  THIS FORCING
WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF NEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. 
EARLY EVENING CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS.  IN ITS
WAKE...LATEST MODELS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW OF RICHER MOISTURE INTO VICINITY
OF SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS POSSIBLE.

THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME...BUT
INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...
ACROSS THE WICHITA/EMPORIA/CHANUTE AREAS.

..KERR.. 06/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

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