[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121738 
OKZ000-KSZ000-121845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN OK INTO SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121738Z - 121845Z

TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL OK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN OK AND
SERN KS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

AS OF 1724Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
TSTMS FROM MAJOR INTO NOBLE COUNTIES OF N-CNTRL OK. INSPECTION OF
VANCE AFB REFLECTIVITY DATA SUGGESTS THAT STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH LARGER TSTM COMPLEX
CURRENTLY FROM THE NERN TX PNHDL INTO CNTRL KS. INFLUX OF A WARM AND
MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INTO THESE STORMS COUPLED WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.

THOUGH CURRENT LAMONT OK PROFILER INDICATES INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE FRESH WITH A NOTABLE SEWD MOTION. SHOULD THIS
BOUNDARY BECOME MORE STATIONARY AND MODIFY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ANY STORMS INTERACTING WITH THIS FEATURE WOULD POSE A
HIGHER RISK OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.

..MEAD.. 06/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

36379784 37289748 37899681 37919579 37479532 36759523
36279573 35979620 35849665 35959766 

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