[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 100242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100241 
KSZ000-NEZ000-100445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN NEB...NCENTRAL/NERN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 444...

VALID 100241Z - 100445Z

THREAT FOR TORNADOES OVER WW 444 APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST HOUR. SCENTRAL NEB PORTIONS OF WW 444
WILL BE CLEARED IN THE NEXT WW STATUS MESSAGE. SVR THREAT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD INTO WW 446/NERN KS.
OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER NCENTRAL/NERN KS
BEYOND WW 444 EXPIRATION TIME /04Z/. THUS A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED BEFORE THEN THAT WILL REPLACE WW 444 AND MAY ALSO REPLACE WW
446.

SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS STRONG LIFT INTO E-W
ORIENTED CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG INFLOW WITH
35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED ISOLATED SVR
THREAT WITH CONVECTION OVER NCENTRAL KS AS IT MOVES GRADUALLY INTO
NERN KS.

FARTHER NORTH...GIVEN OUTFLOW MOVING EAST OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER
SERN NEB...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHING OVER THIS
AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

39419903 39969824 40259695 40049573 39689526 39169503
38719800 

WWWW