[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091652
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091651 
OKZ000-091845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH W CNTRL AND SW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091651Z - 091845Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
CNTRL OK...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WWD AND SWWD DEVELOPMENT INTO WRN
OK. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW
STORM MOTIONS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATE THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN AR JUST N OF
FORT SMITH WNWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY THEN NWWD TO
NEAR GAGE. DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN THROUGH WRN OK AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. RICH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING
WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...15 TO 20 KT SLY FLOW
IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE CAP WEAKENS.
BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY N OF THE BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW IS
RELATIVELY WEAK. IF ENOUGH STORMS DEVELOP TO ORGANIZE A COLD
POOL...SOME SLOW SWWD DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE
STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED.

..DIAL.. 06/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

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