[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 072329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072328 
TXZ000-080130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1230
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX NWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072328Z - 080130Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM THE PERMIAN
BASIN NNEWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 01Z. ANTICIPATED
ISOLATED NATURE OF SVR THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF MDT/TOWERING CU ALONG THE
DRYLINE FROM SW OF MAF TO SOUTH OF LBB. 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS FOR THE
AREA SUGGEST THAT VERY LITTLE CINH REMAINS DESPITE THE LACK OF
GREATER STORM COVERAGE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...BACKED SELY WINDS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN WAS ENHANCING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THIS REGION. THIS IS THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH 01Z.
FARTHER NORTH OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE IT IS UNCLEAR IF STORM
DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVERGENCE.
FARTHER SOUTH...AND ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER PECOS COUNTY SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD INTO TERRELL COUNTY THROUGH 01Z.  RELATIVELY
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION FROM LASTING
WELL AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT OVER THE BIG BEND REGION WHERE STRONGER
BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT A
LONGER LIVED ALBEIT SPATIALLY SMALL SVR THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

35580049 35330135 34590167 33470203 32250235 31320288
30300295 29840262 29880197 32250088 35080033 

WWWW