[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 072153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072153 
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-072230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1229
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN MN NRN AND CENTRAL WI...SWRN U.P OF
MI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 427...

VALID 072153Z - 072230Z

SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL
WI IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS EAST OF WW 427 WITH THREAT DEVELOPING INTO
SWRN U.P OF MI AFTER 00Z. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY
2230Z. 

AIRMASS OVER NRN/CENTRAL WI WAS DESTABILIZING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION THAT RECENTLY DIMINISHED OVER ECENTRAL WI. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NRN WI THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. THUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
IN WARM AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME NE OF SLOWLY NEWD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING NW-SE OVER WRN WI AT 21Z. IN ADDITION
GIVEN CURRENT STORM MOTIONS ISO SVR STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF ERN
PORTIONS OF WW 427 AND BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NCENTRAL/WCENTRAL
 WI BY 23Z. GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...SVR HAIL
AND WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. STRENGTH OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150 J/KG BASED ON THE GRB VWP/ AND
LOWER LCL HEIGHTS ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN WI WILL FAVOR AN
ISOLATED TOR THREAT AS WELL.

..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

46368995 46389250 46279320 44439368 43719334 43899006
44478791 46248817 

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