[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060716 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-060845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 060716Z - 060845Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN KS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY
THREAT.

CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN NRN OK SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS SRN KS. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F ARE HELPING TO CREATE A
MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AS OF 06Z BUT THIS
IS MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW. 500 MB WIND SPEEDS
ARE ONLY ABOUT 20 KT BASED ON PROFILER DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. STILL...ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 06/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

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