[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060220 
MIZ000-WIZ000-060345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0920 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI AND NWRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 411...

VALID 060220Z - 060345Z

TORNADO WATCH 411 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI
AND NWRN LOWER MI. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE
CELLS...WILL CONTINUE ENEWD AT 25KT ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF THE U.P. AND NWRN LOWER MI.

MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER ACROSS NWRN WI WILL CONTINUE ENEWD REACHING
CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 06/06Z. LEADING EDGE OF UPPER FORCING AND
COINCIDENT BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WW 411
AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LAKE BREEZE HAS STABILIZED
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN LOWER MI WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE MID 60S. DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKEWISE
GRADUALLY DECREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS NWRN LOWER MI. AT 02Z...0-1KM
SRH VALUES REMAIN CLOSE TO 200 M2/S2 ACROSS NWRN LOWER MI WITH
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS /40-45KT/. THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE...HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN A
FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY
TRACK FROM CENTRAL/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WRN LOWER MI...AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE U.P.

..BANACOS.. 06/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

44518433 44228544 44188708 45558754 46918757 47208723
47418544 47108484 45918415