[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 050323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050323 COR
MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-050415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 050323Z - 050415Z

CORRECTED FOR STATES/WATCHES

TORNADO WATCHES 391/393/394/398 EXPIRE AT 04Z...BUT READJUSTMENTS/
EXTENSIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MAINLY N TX NEWD ACROSS OK INTO WRN AR AND
WRN MO.

A COMPLEX SCENARIO HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING.
EARLIER SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX HAVE
DEVELOPED NEWD ACROSS SRN OK.  WHILE A FEW STORMS HAVE REMAINED
DISCRETE...ERN PORTIONS OF THE ORIGINAL MARLOW SUPERCELL HAS BECOME
A BOW ECHO WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND REPORTS.

A BRANCH OF THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AIMED INTO OK/SERN
KS...LIKELY FEEDING THE LINE OF TSTMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  CELLS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ATOP COLD POOLS ACROSS
SWRN/CNTRL OK AS WELL. THE VERTICAL/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE
WEAKER SOUTH OF I-40 AND SUGGESTS THAT MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE SEVERE THREATS HERE.

FARTHER NORTH...SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE HAS YET TO MOVE
THROUGH SERN KS/MO/NERN OK.  RECENTLY THE COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING
TO IGNITE STORMS OVER SERN KS AND NCNTRL OK.  GIVEN INCREASED LARGE
SCALE FORCING/SHEAR...DOWNSTREAM 70S DEW POINTS AND MORE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR THAN FARTHER S...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO THREATS. 
THE ONLY NEGATIVE...PERHAPS...WOULD BE IF THE STORMS ALONG THE RED
RIVER CAN INTERCEPT THE FLOW FOR THE STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER N. 
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS AT HAND...HOWEVER...THERE ARE REASONS
TO BELIEVE THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER AN
EXPANSIVE AREA.

..RACY.. 06/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...MAF...

37759825 40709569 41109271 38919280 38289332 35689450
34029629 31189901 31160141 34499950 

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