[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 022243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022242 
OKZ000-KSZ000-030015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS AND NWRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 377...

VALID 022242Z - 030015Z

INITIAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCURRED WEST OF LIBERAL KS AS OF
2230Z. THIS STORM APPEARED TO DEVELOP WITHIN N-S CONVERGENCE ZONE
NOTED IN THE CU FIELD AND N OF A DRYLINE BULGE WHERE THE AIR MASS
HAS HEATED TO NEAR 90F.  THE STORM IS EVIDENTIALLY INGESTING HIGHER
THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS GIVEN SATL PRESENTATION.

OTHERWISE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS
INTO A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WERE
COOLER.  TSTMS WILL PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME INITIATING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. BUT...IT MIGHT SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTMS
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ ACCELERATES AFTER DARK.

IF THE TSTM DEVELOPING VCNTY LIBERAL CAN CONTINUE TO INGEST BOUNDARY
LAYER PARCELS...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GROW STRONGER GIVEN MLCAPES
OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.  VERY LARGE HAIL MAY
RESULT AND THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
JUST NORTH OF THE DRYLINE BULGE HAS TURNED SELY AT AROUND 20 KTS AND
MAY AUGMENT THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY.  ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURE-DEW
POINT SPREADS AT THE SURFACE ARE AOB 25F AND SHOULD LOWER THROUGH
THE EVENING.  ACTIVITY...SHOULD IT BE SUSTAINED...WILL MOVE ESEWD
ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TORNADO WATCH THROUGH MID-EVENING.

..RACY.. 06/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...

37630181 39840184 37979696 36059706 

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