[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010346 
TXZ000-010545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 364...365...

VALID 010346Z - 010545Z

VERY INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF NW AND NCNTRL TX
LATE THIS EVENING AS SEVERE MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
REGION. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AS STORMS MOVE GENERALLY SSEWD AT 10-20KT.

ONE VERY LARGE CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE
OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION FROM MITCHELL AND NOLAN COUNTIES EAST
ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS RUNNELS AND COLEMAN COUNTIES IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

MORE DISCRETE CELLS EXIST ON OR EAST OF THE N-S STATIONARY/REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WAS SITUATED ROUGHLY FROM COKE COUNTY ACROSS
TOM GREEN...SCHLEICHER... AND SUTTON COUNTIES. ESELY CELL MOTION
APPEARS TO RESULT IN REMOVING THE UPDRAFTS FROM THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL SHEAR LOCATED IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THIS
PROCESS..IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...MAY BE
SLOWLY LIMITING SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY FEEDING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NEAR THE BOUNDARY STILL
SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.

AS COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN COMPLEX DEEPENS...SYSTEM MAY
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND EVOLVE INTO LARGER-SCALE BOWING COMPLEX WITH
A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

..CARBIN.. 06/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

30629864 30500077 31980080 32050223 33550222 33479898
32059893 32029872 

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