From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 02:06:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 21:06:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506010216.j512GZiv013903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010215 TXZ000-010345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1095 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010215Z - 010345Z A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS THE DFW METRO AREA TO THE SOUTH OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 363 AND TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 364. LONG-TRACK BOWING MCS APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING ACROSS KNOX... HASKELL...STONEWALL...AND KENT COUNTIES IN NWRN TX. THIS COMPLEX WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MATURE CONVECTIVE COLD POOL WITH 40KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX DIRECTED INTO THE BACK OF THE BOW. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WAS MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH EVENING FWD RAOB INDICATING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INHIBITION/CAP. ADDITIONALLY... LOW LEVEL ELY INFLOW AND LARGER SCALE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVERLAYING THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING SEWD ALONG THE NW-SW INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 31849891 33489892 33509792 33509659 31879659 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 02:20:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 21:20:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506010230.j512UTPU020348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010229 FLZ000-010430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1096 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0929 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010229Z - 010430Z TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND WRN FL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. OFFSHORE MCS WAS MOVING EAST WITH WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTH OF TPA/TBW AREA NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE PENINSULA. STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITHIN VERY MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF MOVES SLOWLY EAST. LATEST VWP FROM TBW WAS SHOWING STRENGTHENING FLOW AND BACKED WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 BASED ON LATEST CELL MOTIONS. THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS MOVE ASHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27308208 27068242 27828285 29158241 29748141 29438116 28888133 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 02:39:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 21:39:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506010249.j512nSMC029624@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010248 TXZ000-OKZ000-010345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0948 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX/SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363... VALID 010248Z - 010345Z MOST INTENSE STORMS ACROSS THE SRN PART OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 363 APPEAR TO BE CONSOLIDATING ALONG FRONTAL/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. ONE OR TWO OF THESE CELLS COULD STILL PRODUCE HAIL OR A BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUST AS LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS STORMS IN A MARGINALLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A NEW WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE DFW AREA...BUT MOST OF WATCH 363 WILL PROBABLY BE CLEARED PRIOR TO 05Z EXPIRATION. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... 33789689 33539998 34009995 34289795 34779724 34889679 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 03:37:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 22:37:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506010347.j513lcsZ021729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010347 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010346 TXZ000-010545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1046 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND CNTRL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 364...365... VALID 010346Z - 010545Z VERY INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF NW AND NCNTRL TX LATE THIS EVENING AS SEVERE MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER THE REGION. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS STORMS MOVE GENERALLY SSEWD AT 10-20KT. ONE VERY LARGE CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION FROM MITCHELL AND NOLAN COUNTIES EAST ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS RUNNELS AND COLEMAN COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MORE DISCRETE CELLS EXIST ON OR EAST OF THE N-S STATIONARY/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WAS SITUATED ROUGHLY FROM COKE COUNTY ACROSS TOM GREEN...SCHLEICHER... AND SUTTON COUNTIES. ESELY CELL MOTION APPEARS TO RESULT IN REMOVING THE UPDRAFTS FROM THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOCATED IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THIS PROCESS..IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...MAY BE SLOWLY LIMITING SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY FEEDING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NEAR THE BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. AS COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN COMPLEX DEEPENS...SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND EVOLVE INTO LARGER-SCALE BOWING COMPLEX WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 30629864 30500077 31980080 32050223 33550222 33479898 32059893 32029872 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 04:19:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 23:19:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506010429.j514TFqA004065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010428 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010428 FLZ000-010600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 366... VALID 010428Z - 010600Z BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUES PROGRESSING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA TONIGHT. ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. SEVERAL LONG-TRACK ROTATING STORMS ARE EVIDENT IN LOCAL RADAR SRM LOOPS LATE TONIGHT. ONE CELL WAS MOVING ACROSS MARION COUNTY... ANOTHER WILL MOVE FROM ERN PASCO INTO SUMTER COUNTY SHORTLY. THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS SSWWD ACROSS ERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY AND INTERSECTS ANOTHER STRONG CELL MOVING ACROSS MANATEE COUNTY. LIGHT SELY SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORMS STRENGTHENS AND VEERS TO SSWLY WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM AND THIS WAS CONTRIBUTING TO 0-1KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 150-200 M2/S2 BASED ON LATEST CELL MOTION. THUS POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES OR STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN LOW INHIBITION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 26478172 26768294 29658203 29268080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 04:40:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 23:40:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506010450.j514oeZu012522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010450 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010450 TXZ000-OKZ000-010615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367... VALID 010450Z - 010615Z WELL-DEFINED BOWING MCS WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS WATCH 367 AT ABOUT 35KT. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE TO SFC-BASED PARCELS ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL INHIBITION IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SFC TEMPS COOL A MORE FEW DEGREES. NONETHELESS...CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE BOW INTO FAVORABLE ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG...SUGGEST THAT NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF BETWEEN 35-50KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE APEX OF THE BOW...WHICH SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE FT. WORTH AREA AROUND 1AM. NRN SEGMENT OF THE BOW INTERSECTS DEEP CONVECTION LINED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OK. A COUPLE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS IN THIS AREA COULD STILL PRODUCE HAIL AND BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS. THE FORMATION OF A WAKE LOW WITH STRENGTHENING POST-TSTM WINDS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THIS PATTERN. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS MIGHT BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN REGION ACROSS NW TX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 31539744 31509891 32689889 33119863 33869776 33849730 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 07:14:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 02:14:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506010724.j517Obod003858@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010723 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010723 FLZ000-010930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF FL PENINSULA EXCEPT NWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366... VALID 010723Z - 010930Z CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND...EVIDENT AT 7Z FROM WRN CHARLOTTE/SRN SARASOTA COUNTIES NEWD TOWARD DAB. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN FL THROUGH 10Z WW EXPIRATION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND/OR TORNADOES...ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH MESOCIRCULATIONS IN LEWPS/BOWS. PRIND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST BEYOND 10Z TO SUSTAIN THIS POTENTIAL OVER MORE OF SRN/ERN FL. THEREFORE AREA S AND E OF WW WILL BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW...WHICH IF NECESSARY WOULD BE ISSUED BEFORE 10Z. 7Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BACKED SFC WINDS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ALTHOUGH SOME DIABATICALLY FORCED DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVIDENT OVER INTERIOR OF PENINSULA...MODIFIED MIA RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE LIFTED LAYER REACHES DOWN TO AT OR JUST ABOVE SFC. MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG ARE EVIDENT OVER KISSIMMEE VALLEY WITH HIGHER VALUES FARTHER SW AND E. ANY ACTIVITY SURVIVING RELATIVE SFC THETAE MIN OVER CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING SBCAPE AND WEAKENING SBCIN AS IT APCHS E COAST. PRONOUNCED THERMAL/MOIST AXES ARE ANALYZED FROM MIA NWD TO JUST OFFSHORE DAB. ..EDWARDS.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 26398173 26758296 29688204 29318076 28988087 28818075 28468051 28438055 28318060 28098056 27798039 27338023 26698035 25878097 25668130 25788142 25848154 25858162 25838168 26098180 26278183 26428187 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 08:01:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 03:01:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506010811.j518BRBV022598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010809 TXZ000-010945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SOUTH TX...SRN HILL COUNTRY TO RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MIDDLE-LOWER TX COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368...369... VALID 010809Z - 010945Z PRIND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL BE S OF WW 369 BY 9Z...THEREFORE WW 368 WILLEXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. SEVERAL STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS BETWEEN JCT-SAT AND ELEVATED SUPERCELL SW JCT AS OF 8Z -- WILL POSE RISK OF DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS AS THEY MOVE SEWD. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO MCS WITH DAMAGING BOW ECHO POSSIBLE...AS WIND BECOMES MORE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE FROM SAT METRO AREA TOWARD UVA...THEN SSEWD ACROSS COT AND ALONG I-37. AREAS SE OF WW 368 MAY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WW BY 12Z. SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM COT AREA SEWD TOWARD JIM HOGG COUNTY APPEAR ROOTED ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER ATTM. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS IN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL. ELEVATED MUCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG AND 60-80 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ARE PRESENT IN RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP S TX. FARTHER NE...1500-2500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE IS EVIDENT E OF WW 368...BUT DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT AS CINH INCREASES. THIS AREA IS E OF LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS...WHICH RUNS ROUGHLY SAT-CRP. SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FROM CLL AREA SWD TO MIDDLE TX COAST BUT LESS WELL ORGANIZED THAN WITH CONVECTION APCHG SAT. ..EDWARDS.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT... 28160025 30400043 30220117 31380116 31989847 30829847 30410041 30350040 30579739 28379729 30599739 31079691 28809553 28259650 27779709 27409732 26959737 26419718 26079714 25969714 25959720 25969727 25949729 25939734 25839734 25839738 25869745 25909753 26039765 26049808 26119832 26249857 26259872 26379881 26409908 26559916 26889929 26939941 27099948 27289946 27609955 27739978 28180010 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 10:09:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 05:09:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506011019.j51AJWa6010401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011017 TXZ000-011145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1103 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF S TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368... VALID 011017Z - 011145Z MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE ARC. LARGE MCS WITH BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS TX COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN SAT AND MID/LOWER TX COAST. ACTIVITY PRIMARILY WILL AFFECT REGION BETWEEN CRP-HOU...INCLUDING PSX AND VCT AREAS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE TENDENCY IS WEAKENING...HOWEVER SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SEVERE GUSTS IN A FEW LOCALES. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADDITIONAL WW WOULD NOT BE REQUIRED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MARGINAL AROUND BOW AND SOMEWHAT GREATER WITH STORMS ON W END OF MCS -- WHERE IR CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE COLDER AND WHERE LARGER LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY ARE EVIDENT. RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE ALONG MID TX COAST BY 12Z...STRENGTHENING TO 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE INVOF LRD. FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEARS WILL CONTINUE OVER REGION -- IN 55-75 KT RANGE GIVEN STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT OF LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS. 2-3 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES WILL REMAIN COMMON. VERY EFFICIENT AND ABUNDANT PRECIP PROCESSING IS LIKELY WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS 15-18 DEG C...PW 1.75-2 INCHES AND VWPS INDICATING 35-50 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. ECHO TRAINING POTENTIAL ALSO IS GREATEST ALONG W EDGE OF MCS...ENHANCING HEAVY RAIN HAZARD. ..EDWARDS.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT... 28160024 30360041 30549741 29409736 29839687 29669635 28959566 28759561 28289652 27949699 27409733 26919736 25959714 25969730 25909734 25849735 25859742 26009763 26059814 26239871 26369877 26409910 26909937 27119947 27539948 27799987 28180017 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 12:22:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 07:22:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506011232.j51CWBfL001794@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011231 FLZ000-011400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 370... VALID 011231Z - 011400Z MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND -- INDICATED AT 1215Z ROUGHLY FROM APF-VRB. BEST ORGANIZED PORTION OF CONVECTIVE BAND ATTM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM VRB AREA NWD. THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCED SUBSEVERE GUST OF 43 KT AT A BREVARD COUNTY BEACH WITHIN PAST HOUR. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS FAVORABLY BUOYANT AND WEAKLY CAPPED...SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN LINE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF ACTIVITY WITHIN IT. STRONG TSTMS OVER GULF SW APF ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE COLLIER COUNTY WITHIN NEXT HOUR AS WELL. 12Z MFL RAOB INDICATES MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH SFC HEATING INTO LOWER 80S F. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES WITH NWD/WWD EXTENT FROM THAT RAOB...BASED ON PRE-STORM VWP AND RUC GUIDANCE ACROSS SWRN AND CENTRAL FL. ..EDWARDS.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 25978062 25988205 28468135 28477991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 14:06:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 09:06:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506011416.j51EG1rN031923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011415 FLZ000-011515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1105 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 370... VALID 011415Z - 011515Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z. CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE COLD POOL HAS STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 370. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL UPSTREAM...STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER PALM BEACH /BROWARD/DADE AND COLLIER COUNTIES COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS SEA BREEZES ENHANCE CONVERGENCE BY 16-18Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COASTAL AREAS...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS. ..KERR.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 28558128 28457989 26058057 25968204 28478137 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 14:37:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 09:37:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506011447.j51ElBIL019081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011446 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011446 TXZ000-011545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1106 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 371... VALID 011446Z - 011545Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16Z. WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOL HAVE PROGRESSED OFF LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ...NOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE BROWNSVILLE AREA AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE RIVER BEFORE STALLING/WEAKENING LATER THIS MORNING. GIVEN STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AXIS...RISK FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. ..KERR.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BRO... 26819926 26729832 26639735 26249687 25949734 26039850 26069900 26289936 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 15:46:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 10:46:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506011556.j51Fu7sJ001388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011555 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011554 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-011800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AL AND GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011554Z - 011800Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE GULF STATES...NOW APPEARS TO BE CENTERED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF MERIDIAN MS. ALONG/EAST OF THIS LOW...A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA. EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS BENEATH THIS REGIME IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...AND COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F. THIS AIR MASS IS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ROUGHLY NEAR/SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM AL AND MACON GA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN/BECOME SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY WARMS AND CAPE INCREASE UP TO 1000 J/KG. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS WITH TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ..KERR.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 30778171 30328265 30128361 30478424 31108409 31758475 31938591 32298696 33078744 33668673 33098524 32438320 32758200 32468119 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 17:58:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 12:58:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506011808.j51I86Zj024183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011807 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011807 MTZ000-WYZ000-012000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WY...PARTS EXTREME SRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011807Z - 012000Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ...AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING /500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BELOW -20C/ IN EXIT REGION OF 90-100 KT HIGH LEVEL JET IS NOW NOSING INTO THE YELLOWSTONE PARK AREA. DESTABILIZATION HAS ALREADY BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS PAST FEW HOURS NORTHEAST OF IDAHO FALLS ID. AS THIS FORCING SPREADS EAST OF YELLOWSTONE TOWARD THE BIG HORNS...INITIATION OF MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 21Z. STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE ALREADY EVIDENT NEAR/NORTHWEST OF WORLAND WY...WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME HAS DEVELOPED AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW NEAR 50F. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S...BUT ADDITIONAL HEATING COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG WITH ANTICIPATED MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...STORMS LIKELY WILL PRODUCE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXPANDS/SPREADS TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. ..KERR.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW... 44480902 45090882 45620586 45210445 44290457 44010594 43640748 43880799 43900852 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 19:57:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 14:57:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506012007.j51K7brC006541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012003 NDZ000-012200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1109 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH DAKOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012003Z - 012200Z SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. THOUGH ONE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS PIVOTED NORTH/ NORTHWESTWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE...STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS UNDERWAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR BOTTINEAU. NEW VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...ACROSS MINOT INTO AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK ...BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING MID/UPPER JET. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO BECOME BASED IN BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS DESTABILIZING WITH SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY STRONG AND...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES FURTHER...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY. ..KERR.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46770319 47380262 47790188 48490151 48740048 47939908 47019949 46610069 46150161 46200236 46480291 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 20:28:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 15:28:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506012038.j51KcQAF026987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012037 SCZ000-GAZ000-012200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1110 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/SRN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 372... VALID 012037Z - 012200Z LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW NEAR COLUMBUS MS SEWD ACROSS CNTRL AL AND SRN GA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POOR LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTUAL SFC INSTABILITY IS STRONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH OBSERVED THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS INDICATE THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF TORNADOES...THOUGH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT...WHERE FLOW IS BACKED TO THE E/SE PER SOUTH CAROLINA VAD WIND DATA. ..TAYLOR.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31297991 30898330 31858330 32648309 32918164 33038003 31837986 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 21:08:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 16:08:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506012118.j51LI8rd020112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012117 SDZ000-NEZ000-012245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0417 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW SD/NW NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012117Z - 012245Z ...WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SW SD SOUTH OF WW 374 AND POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE NEB PANHANDLE... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE NEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF OF CUSTER CO SD. 19Z SPECIAL SOUNDING FROM RAPID CITY SHOWED NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-45 KT. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE BIG HORN MTNS WILL FURTHER INCREASE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ONLY IMPROVE THE ALREADY FAVORABLE SHEAR. ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE...INITIAL TSTM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ..TAYLOR.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42180207 41990381 44160405 44340050 42860053 42260067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 23:02:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 18:02:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506012312.j51NCbt8012856@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012311 MTZ000-WYZ000-020045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT AND EXTREME NERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 373... VALID 012311Z - 020045Z LINE OF STRONG TSTMS...ALONG A POTENT WIND SHIFT...CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD AT 35 KTS ACROSS SERN MT AND NERN WY. SATL SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER POWDER RIVER COUNTY MT WHERE LINE SEEMS TO BE BOWING MORE THAN THE REST OF THE LINE. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY NOTED FROM NWRN SD INTO SERN MT. THUS...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED AS THE STRONG FORCING SPREADS NEWD AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH BROADUS AND TOWARD THE SD/ND BORDER THROUGH 0100Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE TSTM LINE SEGMENT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS COOLED AND STABILIZED VCNTY BIG HORN MTNS WWD. THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. ..RACY.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW... 44280615 45130620 46590711 47670426 44710432 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 23:26:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 18:26:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506012336.j51NaNG5021840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012335 SCZ000-GAZ000-020030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE GA/SRN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 372... VALID 012335Z - 020030Z ...POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND WW 372 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z... ALTHOUGH SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING WITH ONSET OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. VAD WIND DATA FROM COLUMBIA SC LOOKS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION...BUT THIS IS ALSO LOCATED IN AN AREA WHICH DID NOT DESTABILIZE AS STRONGLY TODAY...REMAINING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. RECENT LIGHTNING TRENDS SHOW ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO OVER EVANS/BULLOCH CO IN SE GA...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS TRYING TO CONSOLIDATE WITH SYSTEM OVER MS/AL...PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED STRENGTHENING FROM AUGUSTA/SAVANNAH...NEWD TO SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TRENDS FOR SEVERE APPEAR TO BE DECREASING. ..TAYLOR.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 31277971 31038130 32798279 33297975 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 00:52:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 19:52:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506020102.j5212NYp024666@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020101 MTZ000-WYZ000-020200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MT AND CROOK/WESTON COUNTIES IN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 373... VALID 020101Z - 020200Z VSBL SATL CONTINUES TO SHOW A LINE OF TSTMS ARCING ALONG A VIGOROUS FRONT FROM ERN CUSTER-WRN CARTER COUNTIES IN MT INTO NRN CROOK COUNTY WY. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN A NARROW AXIS WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER FALLON/ERN CARTER COUNTIES. TSTMS APPEAR TO BE CONGLOMERATING INTO A SMALL MCS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD INTO WRN ND/NWRN SD THROUGH THE EVENING WHERE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE TSTMS LARGELY OUT OF SERN MT/NERN WY BY 02-0230Z. AS SUCH... ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS...BUT RATHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKS. DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS PRIOR TO MOVING INTO WWS DOWNSTREAM. ..RACY.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 44390506 46060535 47050588 47460428 44570428 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 01:54:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 20:54:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506020204.j5224iUT020191@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020203 NDZ000-SDZ000-020300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0903 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL ND AND NWRN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 374... VALID 020203Z - 020300Z TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REARRANGED/REPLACED WITH ANOTHER WW BY 03Z. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO NWRN SD AND ND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG THE NOSE OF A 70 KT H5 JET. LLJ HAS ALREADY RESPONDED TO INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS AND RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A RAPID INCREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY/NUMBER SINCE 00Z...MAINLY ALONG/N OF THE SD/ND BORDER. GIVEN THAT STRONGEST MASS FLUX/WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ND THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE MORE CONCENTRATED THAN EARLIER IN THE EVENING. 00Z BIS SOUNDING SHOWED SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL TURNING IN THE EVENING VWP/HODOGRAPHS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR. BUT...GIVEN COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SINCE IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA...THE CURRENT WATCH WILL BE REARRANGED BY 03Z. ..RACY.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 44500367 48870269 48899911 44450046 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 04:30:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 23:30:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506020440.j524e6an018127@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020439 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020439 NDZ000-020545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 375... VALID 020439Z - 020545Z STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS BEEN SHIFTING FARTHER NWD WITH TIME THIS EVENING AS THE NOSE OF H5 JET SHIFTS NEWD INTO CNTRL ND. AS A RESULT...TSTM INTENSITY HAS DECREASED ACROSS ND...WITH STRONGEST CELLS APPROACHING THE MANITOBA BORDER ALONG A N-S ORIENTED FRONT. BUBBLE HIGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER SWRN ND WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHIFTING TOWARD THE KBIS AREA. IT APPEARS INHIBITION HAS INCREASED IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ND. GIVEN STRONGER MASS CONVERGENCE SHIFTING NWD AND INCREASING CAP FARTHER E/S...PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION ACROSS CNTRL ND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SEEM TO BE LESSENING. UPDRAFTS ROOTED ATOP THE COLD DOME FARTHER N/W MAY GROW INTO ORGANIZED CELLS OVERNIGHT AND MOVE NEWD INTO NCNTRL ND OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL THREATS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY AND/OR REPLACED WITH A SEVERE TSTM WATCH. ..RACY.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46110287 48780133 48799786 46069960 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 06:31:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 01:31:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506020641.j526fGLV031185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020640 NDZ000-SDZ000-020815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 375... VALID 020640Z - 020815Z SFC AND REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING EWD ABOUT 20 KT INTO WRN PORTIONS TOWNER/BENSON/WELLS COUNTIES AS OF 630Z. PRESENCE OF ALL CONVECTION BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND DIABATIC SFC COOLING ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY...INDICATES TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE BECOME NEGLIGIBLE. ISOLATED POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS MOVING NWD ACROSS WRN MCHENRY COUNTY ARE ELEVATED ATOP COLD POOL...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND APPROXIMATELY 8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT IN MODIFIED BIS/RUC SOUNDINGS. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALONG AND W OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE SFC AIR GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF BOUNDARY. SUCH ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO CANADA...AND WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. THEREFORE ANY REMAINING PORTIONS WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9Z...UNLESS CANCELED IN MEANTIME. ..EDWARDS.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45919946 45920321 48970144 48999752 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 08:20:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 03:20:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506020830.j528UFd4010353@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020827 FLZ000-021000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020827Z - 021000Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT WATERS BETWEEN FMY-SRQ AS BOW ECHO -- LOCATED ROUGHLY 3 W SANIBEL ISLAND AS OF 8Z -- MOVES NEWD. AFTER MOVING INLAND AROUND 9-930Z...ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN INLAND AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM HIGHER THETAE MARINE AIR INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE SFC-BASED PARCEL ENVIRONMENT. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF LIMITED SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WSWWD ACROSS NRN LEE COUNTY THEN OFFSHORE...INTERSECTING APEX OF BOW. COOLING CLOUD TOPS EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES MOVING NEWD -- ROUGHLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED. ALTHOUGH SFC COOLING ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS HAS STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT...EFFECTIVE PARCELS STILL INCLUDE SFC GIVEN TEMPS MID 70S F S OF BOUNDARY. ACCORDINGLY...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE...WHICH DIMINISHES INLAND....AND ANY SUBSTANTIAL GUSTS GENERATED BY CONVECTION ARE LIKELY TO REACH SFC OVER COASTAL AREAS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW... 27328262 27368252 27428235 27408218 27348204 27158193 26888176 26738181 26578194 26478218 26538235 26848254 27238270  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 15:42:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 10:42:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506021552.j52FqRPO012087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021551 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021551 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-021745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...CNTRL/SRN AL AND GA/SRN SC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 021551Z - 021745Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH PEAK HEATING...BUT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LINGERING SURFACE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM MYRTLE BEACH SC THROUGH THE AUGUSTA/MACON GA AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF TROY AL. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...AND BEGINNING TO WARM INTO THE 80S. WITH FURTHER HEATING...MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING...WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHWEST GEORGIA/AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH. BY 18-20Z...STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS LIKELY IN BAND FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF MACON GA...WHERE GROWING CLUSTER OF LINE OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MITIGATED BY GENERALLY WEAK FLOW...AS LOW- LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...25 TO 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGER CELLS...SOMEWHAT ENHANCING RISK FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..KERR.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 29908812 31018745 31728668 31598552 32118410 33158240 33188148 33118079 33028001 32937976 32458081 31718158 30788210 30438253 30078298 29738334 29658362 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 16:44:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 11:44:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506021654.j52GsH0q020483@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021653 OKZ000-KSZ000-021900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS...NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021653Z - 021900Z UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT LONG TERM EVOLUTION OF ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW. VIGOROUS CLUSTER OF STORMS PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SALINA AREA THROUGH THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT....ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...NOW APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ACTIVITY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT STRENGTH OF FORCING TO FURTHER MAINTAIN CONVECTION...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY SLOWLY CONTINUE INTO AREAS EAST OF WICHITA THROUGH CHANUTE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO MID/UPPER FLOW EAST OF SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WILL ENHANCE SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND PROFILES...WHICH WOULD COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND INCREASING SEVERE THREAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD POOL. REGARDLESS...GIVEN NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG EASTERN FRINGE OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 38729819 38759768 39089709 38829601 38009495 37409468 36819471 36249553 36319654 36629709 37539787 37759810 38039833 38469844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 17:30:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 12:30:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506021739.j52HdmqR018306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021738 COZ000-021945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021738Z - 021945Z DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED WITH INITIAL STORMS...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW. LAPSE RATES ARE BECOMING VERY STEEP WITH STRONG HEATING ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...AND IT APPEARS AREA OF STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD AND ZONE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN LATEST OBSERVATION DATA/OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...SPREADING INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS WILL AID INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTH OF COLORADO SPRINGS THROUGH THE DENVER/FORT COLLINS AREA...LIKELY DURING THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...BUT CAPE IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN COLORADO HIGH PLAINS. ..KERR.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT... 39430637 39930596 40470572 40640472 39750408 38930427 38410474 38300547 38900612 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 19:17:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 14:17:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506021927.j52JRAdu020129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021925 OKZ000-KSZ000-022000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1123 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL KS...PARTS OF N CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021925Z - 022000Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. INTENSIFICATION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES NORTH OF WICHITA...AND NEW/DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF TRAILING OUTFLOW UPSTREAM TOWARD GOODLAND. THIS IS ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET...JUST NORTH OF MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD... 39810149 39349990 38339752 36849656 36169772 36779896 38000070 38660192 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 19:45:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 14:45:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506021955.j52JtC3i004062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021954 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-022200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MN/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021954Z - 022200Z ...POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH DEVELOPING STORMS... SFC FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW NEAR MANITOBA/SASK BORDER THROUGH EXTREME ERN ND AND THEN SE OF A HURON/WINNER SD LINE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A NARROW CONFLUENCE ZONE...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK...GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IMPROVES ACROSS ERN ND/NW MN...SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD LEWP SIGNATURES AS STORMS TRACK NEWD. COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING...WILL BE SLOW MOVING THIS AFTN AND THUS EWD PROGRESSION OF STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. ..TAYLOR.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR... 47509399 42799668 43019861 45659695 47169669 48259626 48339534 48369439 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 20:34:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 15:34:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506022044.j52Kir30001632@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022043 COZ000-022245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1125 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN COLORADO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 376... VALID 022043Z - 022245Z CONTINUE WW. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE TAKEN ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE AREA...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. MOISTENING UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS FROM THE DENVER VICINITY EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR NOW THROUGH 03/00Z. 40+ KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS EAST OF DENVER INTO THE FORT MORGAN/YUMA/LIMON/BURLINGTON CO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS STORMS APPROACH THE COLORADO/ KANSAS BORDER...STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU... 39820456 40730408 40680283 40300220 39890207 39370240 39160291 39290375 39430433 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 22:34:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 17:34:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506022243.j52MhvRD001375@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022242 OKZ000-KSZ000-030015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS AND NWRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 377... VALID 022242Z - 030015Z INITIAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCURRED WEST OF LIBERAL KS AS OF 2230Z. THIS STORM APPEARED TO DEVELOP WITHIN N-S CONVERGENCE ZONE NOTED IN THE CU FIELD AND N OF A DRYLINE BULGE WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS HEATED TO NEAR 90F. THE STORM IS EVIDENTIALLY INGESTING HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS GIVEN SATL PRESENTATION. OTHERWISE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS INTO A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME INITIATING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. BUT...IT MIGHT SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTMS LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ ACCELERATES AFTER DARK. IF THE TSTM DEVELOPING VCNTY LIBERAL CAN CONTINUE TO INGEST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GROW STRONGER GIVEN MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY RESULT AND THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST NORTH OF THE DRYLINE BULGE HAS TURNED SELY AT AROUND 20 KTS AND MAY AUGMENT THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS AT THE SURFACE ARE AOB 25F AND SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY...SHOULD IT BE SUSTAINED...WILL MOVE ESEWD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TORNADO WATCH THROUGH MID-EVENING. ..RACY.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD... 37630181 39840184 37979696 36059706 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 22:48:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 17:48:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506022258.j52MwSVn008174@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022257 COZ000-030030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 376... VALID 022257Z - 030030Z A COUPLE OF SUPERCELL TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD OFF THE FRONT RANGE ONTO THE CO PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN WITH LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE REPORTS OF TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SUSTAINED AND THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT A MCS IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE. PREFERENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IS APT TO OCCUR SEWD INTO ECNTRL CO/WCNTRL KS /WT 377/ THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. OTHER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN SERN CO AND JOIN THE CELLS FARTHER N LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY STILL PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AFTER DARK. TO THE WEST...SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND RESULTANT NNELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROBABLY AID ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ..RACY.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38820507 40870514 40860231 38780230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 23:19:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 18:19:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506022329.j52NTRmn020928@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022328 SDZ000-NEZ000-030130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL NEB/SCNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022328Z - 030130Z ...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DEVELOPING STORMS... STORMS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SCNTRL SD. NEBRASKA PROFILER DATA SUGGEST AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /NEAR -12C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A LOCALIZED LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS INDICATE BETTER LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY HELPING CURRENT STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS. FOR THE NEAR TERM...STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..TAYLOR.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 42979815 41820136 42460258 43260231 43760173 44179939 44349773 43899655 43009672 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 00:17:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 19:17:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506030027.j530RVEM012110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030026 TXZ000-030200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030026Z - 030200Z STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF THE AZ UPPER WAVE...MARKED BY WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CONVECTION OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA AND FAR W TX. HEATING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SINCE 2330Z AND THIS MAY BE A SIGN OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING. BEFORE THE ENHANCED UVV REACHES THE AREA...ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD FORT STOCKTON WITH VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW BENEATH INCREASING H7 FLOW AND 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS STRONGER UVV MOVES EWD...CELLS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LOOPY SQUALL LINE LATER TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES ACROSS SWRN TX. A WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... 30410379 30930401 31810340 32330203 32120123 31120129 30460141 30070289 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 00:50:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 19:50:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506030059.j530xodJ024765@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030059 OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-030230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...KS AND NRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 376...377... VALID 030059Z - 030230Z SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS ERN CO WITH ADDITIONAL INITIATION OCCURRING UPSTREAM VCNTY KCOS...SEEDING DOWNSTREAM STORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID-EVENING TRANSITION INTO A MCS WILL OCCUR WITH STRENGTHENING COLD POOL. THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH 03Z AS THE COLD POOL ACCELERATES ESEWD. ELSEWHERE...A FEW SHORT-LIVED TCU/CBS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE MOVING SWWD INTO WRN KS AND NCNTRL OK. BUT...CAP HAS HELD AND PROBABILITIES FOR INITIATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ARE DECREASING WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. SCENARIO FROM MID-EVENING ONWARD IS A LITTLE COMPLICATED GIVEN APPROACH OF THE SWRN STATES UPPER LOW. PREFERRED TRACK OF THE MCS SHOULD BE ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST CAP/UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WAVE...MAINLY FROM ECNTRL CO EWD THROUGH WCNTRL KS AND TOWARD THE SALINA AREA OVERNIGHT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS THE CONVECTION EVOLVES AND EXPIRATION TIMES OF THE TORNADO WATCHES APPROACH...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF ECNTRL CO INTO CNTRL/NRN KS. ..RACY.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38770514 40860517 40910242 40110220 39389862 39089711 38559672 38079681 35879688 37570178 38680200 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 03:52:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 22:52:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506030401.j5341pYA001798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030401 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030401 COZ000-030430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 378... VALID 030401Z - 030430Z COLD OUTFLOW HAS PENETRATED WELL SOUTH INTO SERN CO WITH ONE REMAIN CELL APPROACHING THE KIT CARSON AREA. THIS STORM IS LIKELY ROOTED ATOP THE COLDER DOME AND WILL MAINLY BE A HAIL THREAT AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE KS BORDER. IT APPEARS THE SEVERE...AND IN PARTICULAR...THE TORNADO THREAT IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY. TORNADO WATCH 378 EXPIRES AT 0500Z AND NO EXTENSION TO THIS WATCH IS PLANNED. ..RACY.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38560478 39330217 38520214 37740466 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 04:05:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 23:05:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506030415.j534F3TD006511@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030414 TXZ000-NMZ000-030545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/WCNTRL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 379... VALID 030414Z - 030545Z IMPRESSIVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S HAVE REACHED EXTREME SERN NM AND THE SW TX MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY. MID-LEVEL CONVECTION THAT HAS PERCOLATED MOST OF THE EVENING HAS CLEARLY ROOTED INTO THIS INSTABILITY WITH STRONG- SEVERE TSTMS ALSO EVOLVING WEST OF WINK. COOLING CLOUD TOPS WERE ALSO NOTED EAST OF THE BIG BEND REGION. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER A LARGE PART OF SWRN TX...EVENTUALLY SPREADING NEWD INTO THE S PLAINS AND TOWARD THE SAN ANGELO AREA LATER TONIGHT. AS THE STRONGER FORCING SPREADS EWD...TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO SEVERAL SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. IN THE SHORT TERM...CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE THE LONGEST WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ACROSS SWRN TX. OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS THE STORMS MOVE NEWD OVERNIGHT. AS THE TSTMS DEVELOP NEWD...ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TOWARD THE LUBBOCK AREA. ..RACY.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 29490445 32900399 33090227 33020096 33009999 29400090 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 07:04:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 02:04:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506030714.j537EH4W008325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030713 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030713 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-030845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS/SRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 380... VALID 030713Z - 030845Z AN MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN NEB AND NRN KS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A HAIL AND A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT A NEW WW EAST OF WW 380 WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW IN SW KS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH NRN KS AND THEN SEWD INTO NE OK. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH IS SUSTAINING THE SRN END OF THE LINE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR AND LIFT TO KEEP STORMS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS FOR AT LEAST AT FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION IS STRENGTHENING AND THIS MAY CAUSE THE LINE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS IT MOVES INTO ERN NEB AND NE KS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME WEAKENING IN THE LINE AND THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ONLY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE. ..BROYLES.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 40869791 40919636 40599479 39369542 38459662 38569940 39059977 39799919 40589847 40709824 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 08:08:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 03:08:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506030818.j538ITar031615@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030816 TXZ000-NMZ000-030945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379...381... VALID 030816Z - 030945Z SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 379 AND WW 381 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW SEVERE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 379. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE POSITIONED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SSWWD ACROSS WEST TX TO NEAR BIG BEND N.P. THE ORIGINAL LINE OF STORMS IS LOCATED FROM LUBBOCK SSWWD TO NEAR MIDLAND WITH STORMS ALSO REDEVELOPING NEAR THE DRYLINE TO THE WEST. THE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND A VORTICITY MAX ANALYZED BY THE RUC. THE VORTICITY MAX IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION WHICH IS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FROM 45 TO 55 KT AND THE INSTABILITY...A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 29780236 29660327 29990371 30920358 33340298 34220291 34530234 34470067 33770012 32280025 30630073 29880149 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 11:37:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 06:37:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506031146.j53BkkGH013256@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031145 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-031315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1135 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN OK...SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031145Z - 031315Z SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE NEWD WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NM WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG LIFT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED CAPE WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG MOSTLY ABOVE 700 MB. AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMES OUT IN INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KT AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 33599888 33809980 34300027 35759965 37439827 37549730 37089671 36599655 35599716 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 13:48:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 08:48:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506031358.j53DwRNM013382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031357 TXZ000-031500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0857 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031357Z - 031500Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW. MODELS SUGGEST...THAT AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...STRONG DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL SPREAD OUT OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS AREA. HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL DEVELOP EAST NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS MAY MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LIFT TO OVERCOME LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC INHIBITION...AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO INTO THE COLLEGE STATION AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...THUS CONVECTION LIKELY WILL REMAIN BASED ABOVE CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY...BUT VERY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST... WITH A LOCALIZED DOWNBURST OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30510022 31309929 31709779 31439676 30159656 29359830 29629943 29889990 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 15:11:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 10:11:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506031520.j53FKq8n032608@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031519 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031519 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-031715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383... VALID 031519Z - 031715Z CONTINUE WW. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO ENHANCEMENT OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD OUT OF WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EVOLUTION OF GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER LIKELY WILL CONTINUE. CONVECTION CURRENTLY IS BASED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER...BUT AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME ROOTED IN DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. AS SHEAR PROFILES STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH GREATER RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36750016 36129978 35279876 34149760 34089623 35079511 37139564 37689854 37739971 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 16:50:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 11:50:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506031659.j53GxnNx000970@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031658 OKZ000-TXZ000-031900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1138 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS SRN TX PNHDL/NW TX INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031658Z - 031900Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF NEW WW. CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH NOW LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS EVIDENT OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE HAS SUPPORTED NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK... WHERE LOW LEVELS REMAIN WARM BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL...SUPPORTING STEEP LAPSE RATES. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG RETREATING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY INTO THE CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. HAIL POTENTIAL IS ALREADY INCREASING WITH STORMS...AND SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE 18-21Z TIME PERIOD...AS ACTIVITY BECOMES ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 34000162 34480085 34810019 35139904 35029764 34479718 33339800 32849879 33059986 33520068 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 17:12:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 12:12:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506031722.j53HM7AT015662@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031721 OKZ000-KSZ000-031815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1139 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS AND EXTREME NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 031721Z - 031815Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN KS/EXTREME NRN OK THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY. NO WW IS ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK VORT MAX WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF END MOVING NE AT 30-40 KT. STRONG STORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. OTHER STORMS THAT REMAINED FROM LAST NIGHTS MCS WERE LOCATED OVER EASTERN KS...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING NW-SE TO THE NORTH OF ICT. THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE STORMS IN NRN OK ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE STORMS IN KS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE UPDRAFTS TO THE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE STRONG LIFT OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. ..IMY.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38259574 38589782 38009922 37209920 36749773 36459719 36479612 36669495 37659462 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 17:31:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 12:31:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506031741.j53Hf30N028005@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031740 COZ000-031945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1140 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031740Z - 031945Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INVOF THE CO FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH NOT INITIALLY EXPECTED...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING PORTRAYS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS UT. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING ELY UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES OWING TO DEEPENING SCNTRL CO SFC LOW...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INVOF THE CO FRONT RANGE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS OR GREATER WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION...WILL ALSO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING DENVER CYCLONE/ISOLD TORNADOES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REMNANT LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS...AND WAKE IMPACT OF UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SUGGESTS THE INITIAL THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CO HIGHER TERRAIN/FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU... 39400583 40710632 40890472 40810427 39910415 38250413 37430433 37380531 39030565 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 17:59:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 12:59:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506031809.j53I9NHI012065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031808 SDZ000-NDZ000-032015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF ND/SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031808Z - 032015Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF ND/SD. WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLD HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE WATCH. ON PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER AND MCV MOVING INTO SW MN...HAIL/WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF ND AND SD INVOF OCCLUDED FRONT AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT. CONSISTENT WITH DEEPENING CU FIELD IN VIS IMAGERY...MODIFIED 12Z BIS/ABR RAOBS IN CONJUNCTION WITH OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION -- INITIALLY CENTERED ALONG A HURON SD-ABERDEEN SD-JAMESTOWN ND CORRIDOR. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /35 KTS OR HIGHER/ WILL BE STRONGEST OVER ND/NRN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLD THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..GUYER.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 48670221 48799786 47929731 43709678 43179763 43319994 43790130 46670125 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 18:26:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 13:26:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506031835.j53IZpwd027374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031834 TXZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1142 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384... VALID 031834Z - 032030Z CONTINUE WW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. COOLING ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS WEAKENED INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS. STRONGEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY EASTWARD THROUGH MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION AND INFLUX OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO STORMS NOW APPROACHING THE TEMPLE/WACO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TEMPLE/WACO VICINITY. ..KERR.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31379890 32079748 32279721 32759699 32419570 31709513 30909569 30509615 30359674 30379806 30099850 30099871 30529924 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 20:15:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 15:15:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506032025.j53KP8SN028566@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032023 OKZ000-TXZ000-032230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1143 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX INTO CNTRL OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 385... VALID 032023Z - 032230Z CONTINUE WW. SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP WEST SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE...ASSOCIATED WITH ZONE OF STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION EAST OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LINE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY EVIDENT SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS...WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RECOVER IN WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY WILL APPROACH 2000 J/KG...NEAR/SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS...SHORTLY. AS 40+ KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY AHEAD OF DRY LINE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE LINE. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...IN ADDITION TO RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 34439952 35159928 35829943 35959881 35169752 33759757 33059830 32919936 33180002 33680013 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 21:02:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 16:02:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506032112.j53LC3dG023556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032111 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-032315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0411 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR/SW MO/SE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032111Z - 032315Z ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS ERN OK/SE KS AND WRN AR/SW MO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WATCH. EAST OF OK PANHANDLE CYCLONE/VORTICITY MAXIMA...ARCING LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS EXISTS ACROSS ERN OK...WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING CU INVOF THIS FEATURE...WHILE MESOHIGH/COLD POOL EXISTS ACROSS SE KS. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF THESE FEATURES IS RATHER UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 ACROSS FAR SE KS/SW MO TO 2500-3000 J/KG INTO ECNTRL OK/WCNTRL AR. INITIALLY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS MAY TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER SE KS COLD POOL AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WET MICROBURST THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN... 35239547 36409626 36739737 37559729 37669520 38479355 38079242 36639249 34479333 34469490 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 22:05:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 17:05:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506032214.j53MElGR021610@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032213 TXZ000-032345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032213Z - 032345Z PARTS OF CNTRL TX COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THE TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. TSTMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER ERN CORYELL COUNTY...AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE STORMS MAY BE BACKBUILDING SSWWD INTO AREAS N OF KAUS. THE INFLOW LAYER OF THE STORMS IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND STORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO FEED ON THROUGH THE EVENING. PROFILERS SHOW AT LEAST 35 KTS OF H5 FLOW ATOP SELY FLOW 10-15KT... SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN AVAILABLE CAPE. THE HEARNE OBSERVATION SITE SHOWED A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENELY FLOW AND THERE MAY BE ADJUSTMENTS ONGOING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER W. THIS COULD AUGMENT THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY TO SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE SSEWD. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. ADJUSTMENTS/POSSIBLE UPGRADES TO THE SEVERE TSTM WATCH 384 MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29429934 31099810 32009690 31969544 31239537 30259625 29349732 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 22:39:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 17:39:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506032248.j53Mmr4T005625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032247 OKZ000-TXZ000-032345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1146 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK AND WRN N TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 385... VALID 032247Z - 032345Z TORNADO WATCH 385 EXPIRES AT 00Z. MAJORITY OF PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE WAS TRANSLATING QUICKLY INTO SCNTRL KS AND NERN OK EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...TSTMS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME INITIATING ALONG COLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER WRN OK...DESPITE TEMPERATURES HAVING WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. SATL DOES SHOW SOME AGITATED CUMULUS VCNTY LAWTON... VERY NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. UNLESS THIS CUMULUS BEGINS TO SPROUT...ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED. ..RACY.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... 33599966 36069837 36029672 35089682 33579771 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 23:01:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 18:01:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506032310.j53NAu1t014424@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032309 KSZ000-040045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032309Z - 040045Z TSTMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS SWRN KS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES THIS EVENING. AIR MASS HEATED SUFFICIENTLY LATE THIS AFTN TO SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS ACROSS SWRN KS. VWP/PROFILERS DEPICT A MODEST DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING BENEATH SLY FLOW ALOFT. TYPICALLY PROFILES SUCH AS THIS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES EARLY IN THE STORM LIFE-CYCLES. STORMS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND CONFINED TO SWRN KS THIS EVENING. A WW DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED. ..RACY.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... 37120103 38120159 38590112 38500001 37819928 37129954 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 00:15:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 19:15:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506040025.j540P1kI010081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040024 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386... VALID 040024Z - 040200Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED/CONTINUALLY DIMINISHING IN SEVERE WATCH 386 ACROSS ERN ND. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 386 MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 03Z. SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO INDICATIVE OF TSTMS STRUGGLING ACROSS ERN ND...PERHAPS NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY AREA BEING ON WRN PERIPHERY OF NRN/CNTRL MN MCV. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MEAGER DYNAMIC ASCENT...UPSWING OF CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINDER OF THE EVENING APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS ERN ND. 00Z OBSERVED ABR/BIS RAOBS PORTRAY MARGINAL INSTABILITY/RELATIVELY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF MEAGER CONVECTIVE TRENDS PERSIST...WW 386 MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 03Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION. ..GUYER.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN... 35239547 36409626 36739737 37559729 37669520 38479355 38079242 36639249 34479333 34469490 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 00:18:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 19:18:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506040028.j540S5DZ011583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040027 COR MNZ000-NDZ000-040200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386... VALID 040027Z - 040200Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED/CONTINUALLY DIMINISHING IN SEVERE WATCH 386 ACROSS ERN ND. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 386 MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 03Z. SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO INDICATIVE OF TSTMS STRUGGLING ACROSS ERN ND...PERHAPS NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY AREA BEING ON WRN PERIPHERY OF NRN/CNTRL MN MCV. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MEAGER DYNAMIC ASCENT...UPSWING OF CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINDER OF THE EVENING APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS ERN ND. 00Z OBSERVED ABR/BIS RAOBS PORTRAY MARGINAL INSTABILITY/RELATIVELY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF MEAGER CONVECTIVE TRENDS PERSIST...WW 386 MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 03Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION. ..GUYER.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48889969 49049854 48949704 46509691 46089701 46029888 46169942 47489957 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 02:10:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 21:10:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506040220.j542KRKD020223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040219 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...EXTREME NWRN AR...EXTREME SWRN MO AND SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387... VALID 040219Z - 040245Z SEVERE TSTM WATCH 387 EXPIRES AT 03Z. BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER SWRN KS. STRONGEST STORMS HAVE APPEARED TO FAVOR A ZONE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATED STRONGLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS THE STORMS TRAVEL FARTHER N AND E...THEY ARE LIKELY BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FEEDING OFF OF INCREASING LLJ EMANATING FROM N TX/CNTRL OK. THOUGH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE CHAOTIC AND ARE CHANGING RAPIDLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS IS THE LIMITED AVAILABLE CAPE...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY OCCUR AS THE LLJ INCREASES. AS A RESULT...A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY STILL CONTAIN HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. UNLESS THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY BY 03Z...AN EXTENSION IN THE CURRENT WATCH MAY NOT BE REQUIRED. ..RACY.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 36129690 37409807 38689634 38689556 36069350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 06:36:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 01:36:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506040646.j546k8Jg017648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040645 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040645 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK...SE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388... VALID 040645Z - 040815Z A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 388 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A REPLACEMENT WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. THE WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY EAST OF WW 388. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NW OK INTO SE KS. STRONG CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHICH COMBINED WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS HELPING SUSTAIN THE STORMS IN WW 338. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS KS AND WRN MO WITH STRONG ASCENT FOCUSED ACROSS SE KS. THE MID-LEVEL JET IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SUPERCELL THREAT GOING FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS IN SE KS AND NE OK. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. ALSO...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS IN WW 338. ..BROYLES.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 36739382 36729461 36689592 36529680 36809710 37649699 37869663 38079544 37939389 37779361 37169371 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 11:22:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 06:22:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506041131.j54BVwf6032592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041131 MOZ000-KSZ000-041300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041131Z - 041300Z AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STORMS ACROSS WRN MO. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NRN OK EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL MO. A LINE OF STORMS IS ONGOING ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM WSW TO ENE FROM SRN KS ACROSS MO WHICH IS ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE LINE. THE SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT) WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE MAY CAUSE THE STORMS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. THE SHOULD MAKE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS THAT ROTATE MAY HAVE A BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..BROYLES.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX... 40249327 39009465 38549463 38009428 38529361 39479251 39879256 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 15:28:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 10:28:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506041538.j54Fc7PR009794@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041537 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041537 ILZ000-IAZ000-041730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1152 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041537Z - 041730Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD THROUGH WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE IN WAKE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES RAPIDLY AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS FORCING IS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD...AND COULD APPROACH THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA...AND AREAS SOUTHWARD TO AROUND CHAMPAIGN BY 19-20Z. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS ALREADY POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF LINE...AND WITH PROGRESSION INTO PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BASED IN DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...WITH ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED SOUTHERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING APPEARS POSSIBLE TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT SURFACE COLD POOL... AND MODELS DO SUGGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS WILL INCREASE WITH CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 41089056 42079054 42268915 41778829 41018785 39968781 39328907 39238972 39639052 40079043 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 17:05:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 12:05:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506041715.j54HFC8B019487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041714 NEZ000-041915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041714Z - 041915Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. FORCING NORTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR SIDNEY NEBRASKA...WHICH LIKELY WILL SPREAD INTO/ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BETWEEN NOW AND 21Z. WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY ADVANCED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS... PRECLUDING RETURN OF BETTER GULF RETURN FLOW...SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR SURFACE LOW VICINITY OF NORTH PLATTE REMAIN IN THE MID 50S. THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. GIVEN DESTABILIZATION... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THOUGH AREA IS GENERALLY REMOVED FROM CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY ALREADY PRESENT NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE. ..KERR.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 41270184 41740099 41740001 41499928 40879884 40489929 40560015 40240070 40500182 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 17:56:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 12:56:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506041806.j54I6AkA008947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041805 KSZ000-MOZ000-042000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041805Z - 042000Z TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH. IT APPEARS SUPERCELLS COULD INITIATE AS EARLY AS 20-21Z. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARMING IS ONGOING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MIGRATING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS...ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. BUILDING/ DEEPENING CUMULUS ARE ALREADY BECOMING INCREASINGLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION. CAP IS STILL SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BY PEAK HEATING...THIS SHOULD BE BROKEN...AS EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET NOSING OUT OF THE TEAS PANHANDLE OVERSPREADS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP VERY RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER IS BECOMING VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW NEAR 70F ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS. MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL APPROACH 4000 J/KG WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS... SUPPORTIVE OF VERY INTENSE UPDRAFTS. HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS LIKELY IN STRONGEST CELLS...AND TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...MOSTLY LIKELY IN AREA AROUND SALINA/MANHATTAN/EMPORIA. ..KERR.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38959790 39629745 39919647 39919541 39779508 39259497 38889496 38209545 37849635 37469730 37689844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 19:03:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 14:03:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506041913.j54JD76x004710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041912 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-042115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL KS/N CNTRL OK INTO W CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041912Z - 042115Z TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ISSUANCE OF ONE OR MORE WWS ...WHICH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED BY THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME. AREAS ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MIGRATING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGHING LINGERS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST UPSTREAM OF DRY LINE...AND...AS THIS DEVELOPS EASTWARD NEXT FEW HOURS...FORCING LIKELY WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING.. ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. HOWEVER...VERY UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. INITIATION OF ACTIVITY BY AROUND 21Z APPEARS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS MOST LIKELY IN AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY INTO THE VICINITY OF WICHITA...BEFORE FURTHER SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE THROUGH THE WICHITA FALLS/ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO AREAS. ..KERR.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT... 36319856 37169812 37689732 37229674 35419696 33959751 32619852 31879930 31610023 32180062 34039891 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 19:14:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 14:14:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506041924.j54JOBpr009716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041923 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041923 WIZ000-MIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-042130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WI INTO SE MN/FAR NE IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041923Z - 042130Z WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN WI...AND POSSIBLY SE MN/FAR NE IA. IN ERN WI...LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER PROGRESSING ENE AT 40-45 KTS TOWARD W/NW PORTIONS OF THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN NEXT HOUR OR TWO NORTH/WEST OF WW 389 AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ON PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SRN MN. ACROSS FAR WRN WI/SE MN ALONG SHARPENING WARM FRONT...WAKE EFFECTS OF MCS TO THE SE AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER/LESSER DEGREE OF INSTABILITY -- 18Z OBSERVED DVN AND MPX RAOBS -- SUGGESTS MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE THREAT IS LESS CERTAIN WITH WESTWARD EXTENT. NEVERTHELESS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH PROGRESSIVELY CELLULAR CU FIELD ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS THE REGION WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN FORWARD PROPAGATION/MAGNITUDE OF WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE /REF BLUE RIVER WI PROFILER/ AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...IN ADDITION TO A FEW TORNADOES OWING TO BACKED SELY FLOW/ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS INVOF WARM FRONT. ..GUYER.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43619279 44729312 45349210 45699106 45868877 45378761 43868746 43788752 43159117 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 19:39:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 14:39:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506041949.j54JnUOt019511@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041948 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-042045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1157 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389... VALID 041948Z - 042045Z FORWARD PROPAGATING SEVERE CLUSTER...WITH HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CHICAGO METRO/NORTH SUBURBS IN THE SHORT TERM. ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD AT 40-45 KTS ACROSS SE WI...AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PRIMARY THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE ACROSS SE WI. ACROSS THE SRN EXTENT OF WW 389...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NRN IL GIVEN EXITING DYNAMIC SUPPORT/MCS STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 389 MAY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WATCH FURTHER N/NW ACROSS WI. ..GUYER.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX... 43698951 43778731 40458763 40458797 41918824 42628940 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 20:33:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 15:33:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506042043.j54KhZkG007983@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042042 NEZ000-042245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW INTO CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 390... VALID 042042Z - 042245Z CONTINUE WW. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTH PLATTE...SUPPORTED BY STRONG FORCING NORTHEAST OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER. UPPER FEATURE MAY REDEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTH PLATTE WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH STRONGER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS AREA...AND INCREASES EASTWARD TOWARD BROKEN BOW... WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW AROUND 60F. GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/ ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... 41550114 41720076 41720007 41179950 40869980 40680048 40880080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 20:37:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 15:37:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506042046.j54KkoQN009542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042046 NEZ000-042245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW INTO CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 390... VALID 042046Z - 042245Z CONTINUE WW. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTH PLATTE...SUPPORTED BY STRONG FORCING NORTHEAST OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER. UPPER FEATURE MAY REDEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTH PLATTE WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH STRONGER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS AREA...AND INCREASES EASTWARD TOWARD BROKEN BOW... WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW AROUND 60F. GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/ ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... 41550114 41720076 41720007 41179950 40869980 40680048 40880080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 20:38:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 15:38:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506042048.j54KmFUq009976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042042 NEZ000-042245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW INTO CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 390... VALID 042042Z - 042245Z CONTINUE WW. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTH PLATTE...SUPPORTED BY STRONG FORCING NORTHEAST OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER. UPPER FEATURE MAY REDEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTH PLATTE WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH STRONGER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS AREA...AND INCREASES EASTWARD TOWARD BROKEN BOW... WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW AROUND 60F. GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/ ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... 41550114 41720076 41720007 41179950 40869980 40680048 40880080  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 20:43:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 15:43:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506042053.j54Kr8rT012075@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042046 NEZ000-042245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW INTO CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 390... VALID 042046Z - 042245Z CONTINUE WW. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTH PLATTE...SUPPORTED BY STRONG FORCING NORTHEAST OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER. UPPER FEATURE MAY REDEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTH PLATTE WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH STRONGER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS AREA...AND INCREASES EASTWARD TOWARD BROKEN BOW... WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW AROUND 60F. GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/ ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... 41550114 41720076 41720007 41179950 40869980 40680048 40880080  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 02:08:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 21:08:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050219.j552JK3p025147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050218 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-050345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1168 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB...NERN KS...EXTREME SRN IA AND NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 391... VALID 050218Z - 050345Z DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND SHOULD INCREASE AS UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL WAVE TURNS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VLY LATER TONIGHT. ON THE MESOSCALE...E-W BAND OF TSTMS THAT FORMED LATE IN THE AFTN HAVE GENERATED A COLD POOL WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS ACROSS NWRN/NCNTRL MO LIKELY ELEVATED. N-S ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS ACROSS ERN KS IS BEING AUGMENTED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS LINE IS APT TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND LOCALIZED BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ECNTRL KS AND WCNTRL MO. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS... HOWEVER...SHOULD TRANSITION INTO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE STORMS MOVE ENEWD INTO WRN/NRN MO. TORNADO WATCH 391 EXPIRES AT 04Z...BUT READJUSTMENTS AND EXTENSIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. ..RACY.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 38289618 40709617 41169266 38639254 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 02:49:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 21:49:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050301.j5531AeO008293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050300 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-050430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NERN MO...WRN/NWRN IL...SWRN WI...AND FAR SERN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 397... VALID 050300Z - 050430Z TORNADO WATCH 397 CONTINUES IN EFFECT. ISOLATED TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ARC OF FORWARD PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORMS FROM JASPER COUNTY IA TO SULLIVAN COUNTY MO AT 0240Z WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 35-40KT. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 50KT AT DSM AND CNC AT 2Z. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED LONG-LIVED CELLS. SEPARATE CLUSTER OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CONTINUES NWD OUT OF FAR NERN MO INTO SERN IA. HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...HOWEVER...CURRENT NWD STORM MOTIONS ARE LIMITING 0-1KM SRH. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS...AS AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE LINE...AND EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SHOULD MAINTAIN/FOCUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS NERN MO AND MUCH OF E-CENTRAL IA THROUGH 6Z. ..BANACOS.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 40169269 42109268 43389240 43609074 42878899 39318931 39068987 39029222 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 02:52:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 21:52:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050303.j5533VkX008775@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050301 TXZ000-050400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050301Z - 050400Z TSTMS THAT EVOLVED FROM A COMPLEX OF MEXICAN PLATEAU STORMS HAVE SURVIVED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED INTO SCNTRL TX THIS EVENING. THEY APPEAR TO BE THRIVING ON THE DIURNAL INCREASE IN THE 925-850 MB JET CONTAINING UNSTABLE PARCELS. DEL RIO VWP SHOWS A VEERING/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW BETWEEN 2-5KM. THIS SUGGESTS THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE BRIEFLY...BUT LIKELY NOT THRIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME. DURING THEIR PEAK...HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY RESULT. ATTM...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WEATHER WATCH. ..RACY.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 28060012 28969983 29149809 28169764 27269909  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 03:10:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 22:10:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050321.j553LkPH015462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050320 MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-050415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR AND OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050320Z - 050415Z TORNADO WATCHES 393/394/398 EXPIRE AT 04Z...BUT READJUSTMENTS/ EXTENSIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MAINLY N TX NEWD ACROSS OK INTO WRN AR AND WRN MO. A COMPLEX SCENARIO HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING. EARLIER SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX HAVE DEVELOPED NEWD ACROSS SRN OK. WHILE A FEW STORMS HAVE REMAINED DISCRETE...ERN PORTIONS OF THE ORIGINAL MARLOW SUPERCELL HAS BECOME A BOW ECHO WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND REPORTS. A BRANCH OF THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AIMED INTO OK/SERN KS...LIKELY FEEDING THE LINE OF TSTMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CELLS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ATOP COLD POOLS ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL OK AS WELL. THE VERTICAL/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WEAKER SOUTH OF I-40 AND SUGGESTS THAT MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE SEVERE THREATS HERE. FARTHER NORTH...SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE HAS YET TO MOVE THROUGH SERN KS/MO/NERN OK. RECENTLY THE COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO IGNITE STORMS OVER SERN KS AND NCNTRL OK. GIVEN INCREASED LARGE SCALE FORCING/SHEAR...DOWNSTREAM 70S DEW POINTS AND MORE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THAN FARTHER S...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO THREATS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE...PERHAPS...WOULD BE IF THE STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER CAN INTERCEPT THE FLOW FOR THE STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER N. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS AT HAND...HOWEVER...THERE ARE REASONS TO BELIEVE THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA. ..RACY.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...MAF... 37759825 40709569 41109271 38919280 38289332 35689450 34029629 31189901 31160141 34499950 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 03:12:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 22:12:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050323.j553Nliu016155@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050323 COR MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-050415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050323Z - 050415Z CORRECTED FOR STATES/WATCHES TORNADO WATCHES 391/393/394/398 EXPIRE AT 04Z...BUT READJUSTMENTS/ EXTENSIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MAINLY N TX NEWD ACROSS OK INTO WRN AR AND WRN MO. A COMPLEX SCENARIO HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING. EARLIER SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX HAVE DEVELOPED NEWD ACROSS SRN OK. WHILE A FEW STORMS HAVE REMAINED DISCRETE...ERN PORTIONS OF THE ORIGINAL MARLOW SUPERCELL HAS BECOME A BOW ECHO WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND REPORTS. A BRANCH OF THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AIMED INTO OK/SERN KS...LIKELY FEEDING THE LINE OF TSTMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CELLS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ATOP COLD POOLS ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL OK AS WELL. THE VERTICAL/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WEAKER SOUTH OF I-40 AND SUGGESTS THAT MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE SEVERE THREATS HERE. FARTHER NORTH...SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE HAS YET TO MOVE THROUGH SERN KS/MO/NERN OK. RECENTLY THE COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO IGNITE STORMS OVER SERN KS AND NCNTRL OK. GIVEN INCREASED LARGE SCALE FORCING/SHEAR...DOWNSTREAM 70S DEW POINTS AND MORE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THAN FARTHER S...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO THREATS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE...PERHAPS...WOULD BE IF THE STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER CAN INTERCEPT THE FLOW FOR THE STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER N. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS AT HAND...HOWEVER...THERE ARE REASONS TO BELIEVE THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA. ..RACY.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...MAF... 37759825 40709569 41109271 38919280 38289332 35689450 34029629 31189901 31160141 34499950 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 04:47:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 23:47:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050458.j554wLHR013875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050457 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050457 MOZ000-ARZ000-050600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1172 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MO AND NCNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050457Z - 050600Z A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF SCNTRL MO AND NCNTRL AR. BOW ECHO OVER NERN OK IS MOVING ENEWD AT 50 KTS AND WILL MOVE INTO AREAS NEAR HARRISON AND SPRINGFIELD BY 06Z...AUGMENTED BY LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS SUITABLE TO SUSTAIN TSTMS. THOUGH WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BOW HEAD TORNADOES AND HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR. ..RACY.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37349317 38209251 38159113 36509147 35229253 35399389 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 05:45:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 00:45:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050556.j555uLJd031976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050555 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050555 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-050730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1173 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO...ERN IA...WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 397... VALID 050555Z - 050730Z THE STRONGER STORMS IN A LINE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WW 397 WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS WCNTRL IL WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH A BROAD 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LINE IS SUSTAINING THE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD. A MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED FROM KS EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS MO AND IA. THIS JET IS CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT ALONG THE LINE WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT CONSIDERING THE LINE IS MOVING INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE LINEAR ORIENTATION OF THE STORMS SUGGESTS A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE. THE LINE SHOULD REMAIN STRONG AS LIFT AHEAD OF A VORTICITY MAX SHOWN BY THE RUC...MOVES NEWD ACROSS MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42459245 43269229 43589186 43659005 43398943 42888905 40188907 39398936 39069005 39099132 39499211 40799230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 07:44:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 02:44:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050755.j557tBFF005351@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050752 WIZ000-ILZ000-050915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1174 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...ERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 397...401... VALID 050752Z - 050915Z WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN A LINE ORIENTED FROM SERN WI SWD ACROSS WRN IL. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE MIDDLE TO NRN END OF THE LINE ACROSS NE IL AND FAR SERN WI. FARTHER SOUTH...THE LINE HAS WEAKENED AND ANOTHER WW FARTHER EAST IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED FROM MO EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS IL AND SERN WI. A CONVECTIVE LINE IS LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS OF THE JET WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS NOSING INTO WI WHICH IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS WI AND FAR NRN IL. THIS MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT WWS WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..BROYLES.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX... 44478991 45148939 44738806 43578742 41658758 39288920 39188978 39439039 41828912 43158877 43768904 43928927  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 08:11:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 03:11:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050822.j558Mcdh015439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050817 ARZ000-050945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1175 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403... VALID 050817Z - 050945Z A WEAKENING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AR. INITIALLY...THE LINE MAY HAVE A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE BUT SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY EAST OF WW 403. A CONVECTIVE LINE IN WRN AR IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. THE INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HELP SUSTAIN THE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD INTO CNTRL AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE LINE MOVING AWAY FROM THE MID-LEVEL JET INTO WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW. IN ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DUE TO A VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD AWAY FROM AR. THE DECREASING ASCENT COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF WW 403. ..BROYLES.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK... 34309310 34379369 34659369 35669313 36339278 36379156 35619144 34379222  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 09:07:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 04:07:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050918.j559IQDi003692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050913 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050912 TXZ000-OKZ000-051045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1176 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK/NORTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050912Z - 051045Z A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS SW OK AND NORTH TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD ONLY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. A WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED FROM MO EXTENDING SWWD INTO OK AND NORTH TX. DUE TO A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DECOUPLED AND THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SW OK AND NE TX IS LIKELY ELEVATED IN NATURE AND IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND THIS COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..BROYLES.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... 33189566 32539607 32369682 33849902 34659853 34759782  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 16:47:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 11:47:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506051658.j55GwbNO023293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051655 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-051800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1177 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INDIANA...LOWER MI...PARTS OF NW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051655Z - 051800Z SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UNIMPEDED SURFACE HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA/OHIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS EXCEEDED 2000 J/KG...WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION REMAINING ACROSS THIS REGION. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOW- LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA NORTHWEST OF EVANSVILLE THROUGH THE LAFAYETTE IN/KALAMAZOO MI AREA. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED NOW LIFTING FROM ILLINOIS TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 18-20Z. IF THIS OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BY PEAK HEATING HOURS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES...WITH STORMS ENHANCED BY MODERATELY SHEARED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX... 44858561 44198583 43308539 42608552 41778660 39848734 38668756 37848739 38828517 40588419 41488384 42048309  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 17:11:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 12:11:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506051722.j55HMGZe032753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051719 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-051845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1178 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SCNTRL MN INTO NRN IA AND WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051719Z - 051845Z SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 18Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NEWD OVER MN...WITH -14C 500 MB COLD POCKET CENTERED OVER NW MN PER UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS. MCV ALSO NOTED OVER NE IA. COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT...MODEST INSOLATION OVER ERN/SRN MN AND NRN IA HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED OBSERVED 12Z MPX RAOB FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS...WITH MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. INITIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS ERN/SCNTRL MN INTO NRN IA GIVEN UPPER COLD POCKET AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD LIKELY INCREASE AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD INTO WRN WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 45909419 47879318 47679096 45029053 42689070 42729464 43739528 44219502  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 18:34:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 13:34:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506051845.j55IjdjX032122@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051842 MTZ000-052045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1179 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MT CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 051842Z - 052045Z LOCALIZED MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH 21-22Z. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED. THIS IS MAINLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MONTANA...WHERE WEAK BUT MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS BENEATH DIFLUENT REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SHEAR PROFILES ARE STILL WEAK...BUT AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/DEEPEN WITH MIXING...CAPE MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG UPDRAFTS IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. A FEW STORMS MAY SLOWLY DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR/WEST OF GREAT FALLS...WHERE SYNOPTIC FORCING/SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. ..KERR.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47141230 47931287 48311239 48371031 48290880 47770751 46630658 45690664 45410807 45681004 45881099 46301140 46661191  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 19:25:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 14:25:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506051936.j55JaF1g019835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051933 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-052130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1180 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN INDIANA INTO LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051933Z - 052130Z CONTINUE TORNADO WW 404 AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW 406. RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH HAS LIFTED INTO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ACTIVITY HAS BECOME CLUSTERED SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CHICAGO AREA...WITH FURTHER EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NEXT FEW HOURS. MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS LIKELY NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES. THIS MAY SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD POOL WITH INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT WEST THROUGH NORTH OF FORT WAYNE INTO THE LANSING AND...PERHAPS...ANN ARBOR AREAS BY 23Z. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUST ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. ..KERR.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 41408683 41958615 42508592 42888497 42768444 42448388 41778414 41058505 40218637 40188722 40718722  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 19:32:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 14:32:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506051943.j55Jhe6Q022719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051940 LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-052115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1181 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 051940Z - 052115Z PULSE-TYPE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH DEVELOPING TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LA. LATEST WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES MCV NEARING THE SABINE RIVER AROUND/EAST OF THE LUFKIN TX AREA. IN SPITE OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS PER AREA WSR-88D VADS/WINNFIELD LA PROFILER...EWD PROGRESSION OF MCV WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN ORGANIZATION FOCUS ACROSS LA. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS LA IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE -- MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG -- SUCH THAN AN EPISODIC SEVERE THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS/DOWNBURSTS APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 32419397 32479359 32439113 30979086 30259094 30029252 30329373 30849397  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 20:16:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 15:16:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506052027.j55KRNXB007976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052021 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-052145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1182 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN/NE IA INTO WI/U.P. OF MICH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405... VALID 052021Z - 052145Z TORNADO WATCH UPGRADE/REPLACEMENT OF WW 405 MAY BE REQUIRED SOON EWD INTO WI AND U.P OF MICH. AHEAD OF WRN MN UPPER TROUGH AND REMNANT MCV MOVING INTO SW WI... AIRMASS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE FROM ERN MN INTO MUCH OF WI AND THE U.P. OF MICH. MODIFIED OBSERVED 18Z GRB SOUNDING...IN ACCORDANCE WITH 18Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...PORTRAY AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE -- CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED INVOF MISS RIVER -- AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENE AND/OR DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL/ERN WI AND WRN U.P OF MICH...WITH CU FIELD CURRENTLY DEEPENING INTO ERN WI/U.P. MICH AHEAD OF ONGOING WRN WI TSTMS. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS GRADUALLY BACKED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL WI...SUCH THAT TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN/CNTRL WI INTO U.P OF MICH. TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO BE FURTHER AUGMENTED BY AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY/LOW LEVEL CAPE CONCENTRATION INVOF NE MN/NW WI/FAR WRN U.P. OF MICH. ADDITIONALLY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL EXISTS...IN ADDITION TO AN INCREASING THREAT WITH TIME FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS VIA ORGANIZATION LINEAR CLUSTERS/LEWPS. ..GUYER.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 47999246 47818943 47248826 45548740 43298782 42618926 42529018 42589314  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 20:21:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 15:21:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506052033.j55KX5eu009981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052028 MTZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-052200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MT/ERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052028Z - 052200Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO...WHERE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF APPROACHING VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND 23Z. WITH SHEAR ALSO STRENGTHENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS EXIT REGION OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS REGION...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CAPE LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE MONTANA ROCKIES...NEAR/WEST OF GREAT FALLS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT BETTER...AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... 46641509 48461399 48551227 47181095 45841148 42901171 41811395 42011451 43301426 44741434  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 20:46:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 15:46:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506052057.j55KvG7V019747@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052050 OKZ000-TXZ000-052215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRWN TX NEWD ACROSS SWRN AND CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052050Z - 052215Z MONITORING PORTIONS OF NWRN TX NEWD INTO SWRN/CENTRAL OK FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH. WEAK WARM FRONT...WHICH IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING SLOWLY NWD... STRETCHED FROM NEAR LBB NEWD TO BETWEEN OKC AND END. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS TO INITIATE SHORTLY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS RICHER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND THIS WAS RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM 3500 TO 4500 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND 30 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW...ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ..IMY.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32950012 32680162 32750184 33410219 34869949 35259850 35389715 34999633 34589641 33659762  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 22:07:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 17:07:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506052218.j55MIRYw014884@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052213 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-052315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052213Z - 052315Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY... MODERATE SWLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE TO ADVECT ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW406 INTO WRN OH OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS QUITE WARM WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 F. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT ONGOING CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THIS REGION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX... 41468124 39628270 38998519 41688368  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 22:58:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 17:58:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506052309.j55N9iD5032063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052307 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-060000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN/NE IA AND WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405... VALID 052307Z - 060000Z AN ISOLD SEVERE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT MAY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HOWEVER CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT WW 405 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSITION ENE OVER ERN MN TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT HAVING ALREADY SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO CNTRL/ERN WI AND U.P. OF MICH. WITH ALREADY MARGINAL INSTABILITY FROM ERN MN/NE IA INTO WRN WI PER RUC SOUNDINGS/LATEST MESOANALYSIS...STORM MERGERS/CLUSTERING AND MORE SO LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING. ..GUYER.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 47579287 47869104 45089049 43709020 42719035 42679242 42909273 44619305  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 23:57:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 18:57:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506060008.j5608aIw020235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060005 MIZ000-WIZ000-060130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI/U.P. OF MICHIGAN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 407... VALID 060005Z - 060130Z PRIMARY THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF WW 407 ACROSS ERN WI/U.P. OF MICH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR NECESSITY OF ADDITIONAL WATCH ACROSS U.P. OF MICH DOWNSTREAM OF WW 407...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED BY 01Z. ALTHOUGH A FEW EMBEDDED LEWP TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW/25 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR PER GRB WSR-88D VAD... DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH LINEAR CLUSTERS CURRENTLY MOVING ENE AT 35-40 KTS ACROSS ERN WI/WRN U.P. OF MICH. SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MAGNITUDE OF SWLY WINDS OF 40 KTS OR GREATER ABOVE 1 KM...REF BLUE RIVER WI PROFILER AND AREA WSR-88D VADS. ALTHOUGH SEEMINGLY LESS QUALITY AIRMASS EXISTS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE ERN U.P. OF MICH...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX... 46729044 47248829 46848521 45758529 44158703 43208763 43778962  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 00:03:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 19:03:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506060014.j560Ew9R021969@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060011 OKZ000-TXZ000-060145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 408... VALID 060011Z - 060145Z ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS NWRN TX/SWRN OK... AN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS EVOLVED OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS THAT ARE MEANDERING IN RESPONSE TO OUTFLOW FORCING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR SOME TIME GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE IN LLJ ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THIS COMPLEX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER DOWNSTREAM STATIONARY STORM OVER KIOWA COUNTY OK WILL SURVIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING OR SIMPLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LARGE HAIL CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34160238 35539834 34659782 32250122  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 02:11:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 21:11:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506060222.j562MuDL005215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060220 MIZ000-WIZ000-060345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0920 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI AND NWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 411... VALID 060220Z - 060345Z TORNADO WATCH 411 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI AND NWRN LOWER MI. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE CELLS...WILL CONTINUE ENEWD AT 25KT ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE U.P. AND NWRN LOWER MI. MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER ACROSS NWRN WI WILL CONTINUE ENEWD REACHING CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 06/06Z. LEADING EDGE OF UPPER FORCING AND COINCIDENT BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WW 411 AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LAKE BREEZE HAS STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN LOWER MI WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE MID 60S. DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKEWISE GRADUALLY DECREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS NWRN LOWER MI. AT 02Z...0-1KM SRH VALUES REMAIN CLOSE TO 200 M2/S2 ACROSS NWRN LOWER MI WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS /40-45KT/. THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO STABILIZE...HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY TRACK FROM CENTRAL/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WRN LOWER MI...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE U.P. ..BANACOS.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... 44518433 44228544 44188708 45558754 46918757 47208723 47418544 47108484 45918415  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 02:18:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 21:18:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506060229.j562TxI5008011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060228 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-060400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1190 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409... VALID 060228Z - 060400Z ...SQUALL LINE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS ERN OH INTO WRN PA... CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW AS CONVECTION MOVES TOWARD WRN PA AT ROUGHLY 35KT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY...LIKELY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF UPSTREAM TROUGH INTO THIS REGION. MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY...LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AT PIT...AND WEAKENING LAPSE RATES SUGGEST WIND THREAT WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS WELL. ..DARROW.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39618370 40818191 42118144 42258000 40847998 39648219  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 03:32:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 22:32:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506060343.j563hQBw004829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060341 OKZ000-TXZ000-060515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1191 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK/NCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 408... VALID 060341Z - 060515Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AREAS ALONG THE RED RIVER... COMPLEX ARRAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MERGED OVER SWRN OK/NWRN TX WITH A DEVELOPING MVC OVER TILLMAN COUNTY OK. AN ARCING LINE OF TSTMS NOW EXTENDS SWD FROM THIS DEVELOPING MCS INTO ARCHER COUNTY TX. LEADING EDGE OF SQUALL LINE IS SURGING EWD AT 35-40KT AND WILL EXIT THE SERN CORNER OF WW BY 05Z...IF CURRENT SPEED CONTINUES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS UPWARD EVOLUTION MAY REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THIS LEADING LINE...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. ..DARROW.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34729862 34979631 33819570 33279712 33289869 34079856  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 07:10:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 02:10:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506060721.j567LjdF017396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060716 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-060845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1192 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060716Z - 060845Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT. CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN NRN OK SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN KS. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F ARE HELPING TO CREATE A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AS OF 06Z BUT THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW. 500 MB WIND SPEEDS ARE ONLY ABOUT 20 KT BASED ON PROFILER DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. STILL...ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37649536 37139455 36649468 35999537 36389753 37099929 37919924 38299794  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 12:25:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 07:25:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061236.j56CaQnD016894@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061235 PAZ000-061430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1193 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061235Z - 061430Z SCATTERED STRONG CELLS ARE MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS WRN PA. THE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO CNTRL PA THIS MORNING...THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTING EWD ACROSS ERN OH AND WRN PA. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THIS BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG AN AXIS OF RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. VAD WIND PROFILES IN WRN PA SHOW 35 TO 40 KT AT 6 KM SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE AS THE CELLS MOVE INTO CNTRL PA LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAST ELY MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AT 40 KT. OTHERWISE...HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THE STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 41067681 40657685 40397743 40227921 40438043 41298036 41637972 41667712 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 14:18:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 09:18:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061429.j56ETbRx020299@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061428 MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-061530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN PA/CENTRAL-ERN NY/NRN NJ/WRN CT/WRN MA/WRN VT CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 061428Z - 061530Z THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE DAY 1 OUTLOOK WILL UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE NERN STATES TO A MODERATE RISK. THIS MODERATE RISK INCLUDES CENTRAL AND ERN PA...CENTRAL AND ERN NY...NRN NJ...WRN CT...WRN MA AND WRN VT. FOR METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 39737844 41097830 42517701 43737539 44427444 44587287 43277282 41717294 40717410 39847567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 14:49:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 09:49:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061500.j56F0gMp007331@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061500 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061459 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-061630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0959 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN INTO MIDDLE TN/FAR NW AL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 061459Z - 061630Z SOME THREAT FOR PULSE-TYPE/EPISODIC MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY DEVELOP OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS WRN TN INTO MIDDLE TN/FAR NW AL. SURFACE MESOANALYSIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE DRIVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NNE ACROSS FAR NRN MS AT THIS TIME. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS WRN TN INTO MIDDLE TN ALREADY WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 80S/70S SFC TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS RESPECTIVELY. IN SPITE OF WEAK AMBIENT/VERTICAL SHEAR SEEN IN MEMPHIS AND NASHVILLE WSR-88D VADS...COLD POOL ORGANIZATION MAY LEAD TO PULSE-TYPE SEVERE EPISODES ACROSS WRN TN INTO MIDDLE TN/FAR NW AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG... 35009013 35629025 36098956 36238757 35868650 35208627 34588667 34438759 34808798 35078881 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 15:09:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 10:09:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061521.j56FL3G0021227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061520 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061520 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-061615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS/SWRN INTO CENTRAL AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061520Z - 061615Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SERN MS TO WRN FL PANHANDLE AND NNEWD INTO CENTRAL AL. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NWRN GA TO SWRN AL. THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDED WSWWD ACROSS FAR SERN MS/LA AS A SEA BREEZE. MARITIME AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...AS INDICATED BY DEVELOPING CU ACROSS AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...VAD WIND DATA INDICATED A BAND OF 25-30 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE MS MCV. THESE WINDS MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION. ..PETERS.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... 30768888 31098861 31578847 32258824 32498816 32798753 32418668 31368629 30498622 30068699 29598821 29458921 29798951 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 16:35:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 11:35:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061647.j56Gl6ms010136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061646 PAZ000-MDZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-061745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN-SERN OH/WRN PA INTO NRN WV/PORTIONS OF WRN MD PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413... VALID 061646Z - 061745Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF ERN-SERN OH INTO WRN PA AND NRN WV/ WRN MD PANHANDLE. GIVEN THIS NEW THREAT AND ITS POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 413...COUNTIES ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW 413 WILL NOT BE REMOVED IN UPCOMING SPC STATUS MESSAGES. 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NERN OH TO NEAR CMH TO SRN IND...WITH VIS IMAGERY SHOWING CU DEVELOPING ALONG/E OF THIS FRONT WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. SURFACE HEATING HAS ELIMINATED THE LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND IS RESULTING IN CURRENT MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG. THUS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OH VALLEY IS SUPPORTING AT LEAST 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN PA...LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER STORMS...WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD ELSEWHERE WITH 40 KT WSWLY WINDS BETWEEN 2-3 KM PER VAD WIND DATA AT CLE/ILN/PBZ WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... 37688301 39418292 41748078 42817817 39717833 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 17:19:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 12:19:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061730.j56HUw99003958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061729 SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-061930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1198 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN WYOMING CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061729Z - 061930Z A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED IN THIS REGION WITHIN THE HOUR. WITH AIR MASS NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS NRN WY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WRN WY. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN WY IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. SURFACE LOW VICINITY RIW WILL DEEPEN NEWD AND COUPLED WITH APPROACHING STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPWARD MOTION AND SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..HALES.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 43530849 44570891 45450851 45620716 45500502 45400410 43810339 42970368 42780435 42660512 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 17:23:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 12:23:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061735.j56HZ07H005712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061734 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061734 PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-061830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1199 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL-ERN VA/MD AND PORTIONS OF SERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061734Z - 061830Z WW WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL-ERN VA TO SERN PA. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LEE TROUGH OVER WRN VA FROM ABOUT 40 S ROA TO LYH TO CHO TO 30 SE MRB. VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WV INTO WRN VA AND NWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA...WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/NRN VA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE REGIONS AND MOVE EWD. AIR MASS ALONG/E OF HIGHER TERRAIN HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 2500+ J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL BE PULSE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE PA BORDER WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WITHIN MOIST AXIS WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN SFC-3 KM LAPSE RATES TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE EWD. ..PETERS.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 37957937 39147831 39727747 40127583 38997631 37437694 36937773 36797897 37097985 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 17:28:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 12:28:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061739.j56HdJ0w008853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061738 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061738 ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-061945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN OK INTO AR/FAR SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061738Z - 061945Z THREAT FOR ISOLD PULSE-TYPE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/MICROBURSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PROGRESSING EWD OVER FAR ERN OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE /AND INVOF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/ AMIDST WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. 15Z RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR REPRESENTIVE WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE AMIDST ALREADY NEGLIGIBLE CINH ACROSS WRN/CNTRL AR INTO FAR SRN MO...WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER DEQUEEN AR PROFILER /LIKELY AUGMENTED BY THE MCV/ SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THEREFORE AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR PULSE-TYPE/EPISODIC MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM FAR ERN OKLAHOMA INTO WRN/CNTRL AR AND FAR SRN MO. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 35539482 37139468 37209298 36539091 35379101 33909208 33539238 33479379 33739451 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 18:24:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 13:24:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061835.j56IZICJ008002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061834 TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-062100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1201 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO/NE AR/SRN IL INTO WRN/CNTRL KY AND SRN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061834Z - 062100Z THREAT FOR PULSE-TYPE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FROM SE MO/NE AR/SRN IL INTO WRN/CNTRL KY AND SRN IN. SEVERE WATCH NOT ANTICIPATED. PLENTIFUL INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED AIRMASS THAT IS 1) DOWNSTREAM OF ERN MO MCV 2) ALONG/SOUTH OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN IL/SRN IN AND 3) NORTH OF WRN TN COLD POOL TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE. RELATIVELY MODEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /20-30 KTS PER REGIONAL PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VADS/ AND AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY. HOT/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE...HOWEVER REGION WILL BE UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IN UPCOMING 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 35658603 36188726 36139004 36239094 36849066 37598993 38278984 39138872 39188729 38388537 36458455 35998498 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 19:10:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 14:10:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061921.j56JLklS004229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061920 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-062015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN NM INTO WRN TX/WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061920Z - 062015Z WW WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF ERN NM INTO WRN TX/ WRN OK PANHANDLE. AIR MASS ACROSS ERN NM INTO WRN TX HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY 21-00Z. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU/CBS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND FAR WEST TX. THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. SFC-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT OVER SERN NM SWD INTO FAR WEST/SWRN TX IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. FURTHER N...DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AS WELL...GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 29210377 31170425 32430519 33730538 35430474 36840396 36900198 33520217 31320219 29140300 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 19:12:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 14:12:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061923.j56JNCJR005487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061922 SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-062115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD/WRN NEB AND ECNTRL/SE WY INTO ERN CO/FAR WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061922Z - 062115Z SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE WY/CO HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS. MONITORING TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WATCH/ES. AHEAD OF LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN ID/NRN UT INTO WRN WY...CUMULUS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY/CO THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO INTO FAR WRN KS. ALTHOUGH SOME CINH REMAINS ACROSS THE WRN SD/WRN NEB/WRN KS HIGH PLAINS...MODIFIED 18Z SPECIAL RAOBS FROM RAP/LBF PORTRAY POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OF 2000 J/KG OR GREATER. RELATIVELY GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30-40 KTS/ FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS/LONGER DURATION SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS ERN WY/WRN SD/WRN NEB...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 20 KTS PROGRESSIVELY SWD ACROSS ERN CO/FAR WRN KS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS...HOWEVER WW APPEARS LIKELY AT LEAST ACROSS ERN WY/WRN SD/WRN NEB BY 21Z. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 45590333 45630141 42920050 40340058 38790055 37790097 37780288 39060402 41300532 43270544 43380369 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 20:05:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 15:05:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062016.j56KGdjq007065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062015 NDZ000-MTZ000-062215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MT/WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062015Z - 062215Z THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/ISOLD TORNADOES TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NE MT INTO WRN ND. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWWD INTO ERN MT/WRN ND...WHILE STRONG DYNAMIC ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON OWING TO EJECTING SRN ID/NRN UT/WRN WY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH INITIALLY HAMPERED BY CLOUD COVER...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS NE MT PER VIS SATELLITE TRENDS/MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS/INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KTS OR GREATER -- PER GLASGOW WSR-88D VAD AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS -- WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/ISOLD TORNADOES. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 48760816 48650218 47830125 46040128 46110325 46870713 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 20:25:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 15:25:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062036.j56KaRVj019658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062035 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-062130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN PA/NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 416...418... VALID 062035Z - 062130Z BOW ECHO PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOVE INTO SRN VT TO WRN CT THROUGH 21Z...WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS ERN PA INTO CENTRAL/NRN NJ AND WRN LONG ISLAND. ...ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND... REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS INDICATED THE FASTEST PORTION OF A BOW ECHO...WHICH EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL TO SERN NY...AT 30-45 KT.. WITH THE 45 KT SPEED EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SRN VT THROUGH 21Z. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHICH WILL SUSTAIN EWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOW...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ...ERN PA INTO NJ/WRN LONG ISLAND... MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG SWD ACROSS ERN PA INTO NJ AND AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER WRN LONG ISLAND WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS OVER ERN PA CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS OVER THESE REGIONS. ..PETERS.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...CTP... 39897730 40837449 41777373 43247304 43797379 44237278 44027080 41357183 40757300 40217365 39827557 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 20:50:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 15:50:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062101.j56L1ACf004753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062100 PAZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-062230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA/NRN WV/NRN VA/NRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413...416... VALID 062100Z - 062230Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF WW 413 AND 416. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE ACROSS SERN PA...NRN VA/WV/MD. A SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN PA AT 30 KT AND WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A DEVELOPING COLD POOL... WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF HGR-ILG-TTN LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ALONG THE LINE. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN SWRN PA WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED INTO THE MID 80S WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS. ..IMY.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... 40438001 40167786 40407511 40077512 39597549 38687646 38477749 38437837 38597936 39848047 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 21:22:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 16:22:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062133.j56LXPTL022758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062132 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-062300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0432 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE OH/WRN PA INTO NRN/CNTRL WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415... VALID 062132Z - 062300Z CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF SEVERE WATCH 415 ACROSS SE OH/WRN PA INTO NRN/CNTRL WV. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS WW 415. ASIDE FROM ONGOING SEVERE TSTMS IN SW PA...DEVELOPMENT HAS STRUGGLED PROGRESSIVELY SWWD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH SE OH/NW WV AMIDST MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND HOT/MOIST AIRMASS...SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS AS ADDITIONAL TSTMS COULD YET DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PRIMARY THREAT WILL REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... 39908273 42107904 39577915 37458275 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 21:24:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 16:24:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062135.j56LZPfa024204@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062100 PAZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-062230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA/NRN WV/NRN VA/NRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413...416... VALID 062100Z - 062230Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF WW 413 AND 416. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE ACROSS SERN PA...NRN VA/WV/MD. A SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN PA AT 30 KT AND WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A DEVELOPING COLD POOL... WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF HGR-ILG-TTN LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ALONG THE LINE. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN SWRN PA WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED INTO THE MID 80S WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS. ..IMY.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... 40438001 40167786 40407511 40077512 39597549 38687646 38477749 38437837 38597936 39848047 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 21:39:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 16:39:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062151.j56Lp7xQ032052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062132 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-062300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0432 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE OH/WRN PA INTO NRN/CNTRL WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415... VALID 062132Z - 062300Z CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF SEVERE WATCH 415 ACROSS SE OH/WRN PA INTO NRN/CNTRL WV. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS WW 415. ASIDE FROM ONGOING SEVERE TSTMS IN SW PA...DEVELOPMENT HAS STRUGGLED PROGRESSIVELY SWWD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH SE OH/NW WV AMIDST MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND HOT/MOIST AIRMASS...SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS AS ADDITIONAL TSTMS COULD YET DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PRIMARY THREAT WILL REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... 39908273 42107904 39577915 37458275  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 21:54:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 16:54:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062206.j56M654L008082@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062204 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-062330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1208 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA/FAR SRN MN CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 062204Z - 062330Z DEVELOPING TSTMS MAY POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS ISOLD LARGE HAIL...ACROSS NE IA INTO FAR SRN MN. TOWERING CU/ISOLD TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NE IA NORTH OF I-80 INVOF WEAK WARM FRONT/CONFLUENCE AXIS. AMBIENT AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1500 J/KG MLCAPE/NEGLIGIBLE CINH PER MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. AMIDST SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SLATER IA/BLUE RIVER WI PROFILERS PORTRAY AROUND 30 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLD IN NATURE PER RISING UPPER HEIGHTS/WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND HOT/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43949297 43529112 42398978 41839000 41819198 42119350 42849419 43409442 43579429 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 22:24:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 17:24:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062235.j56MZJVh022577@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062234 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-070000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1209 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 416... VALID 062234Z - 070000Z ...DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DELMARVA... EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF PA HAS APPARENTLY AIDED CONVECTIVE SURGE ALONG PA/MD BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DELMARVA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...TRAILING TSTMS INTO SWRN PA/WV MAY POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY LESSONS THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39257754 40057604 40237423 39007486 38937635 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 22:47:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 17:47:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062259.j56Mx5Km032434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062258 KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-070030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1210 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD/WRN NEB/NW KS INTO CNTRL SD/CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 420... VALID 062258Z - 070030Z TORNADO WATCH 420 CONTINUES THROUGH 04Z ACROSS WRN SD/WRN NEB/NW KS. MONITORING TRENDS FOR ADDITIONAL WATCH INTO CNTRL SD/CNTRL NEB AND POSSIBLY NCNTRL KS...WHICH MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. ISOLD SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW KS/WRN NEB INTO WRN SD. AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE...WITH 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS/RUC SOUNDINGS. SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN PRIMARY MODE OWING TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...RANGING FROM 35-40 KTS ACROSS WRN SD TO AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS NW KS. AS STORMS CONTINUALLY MOVE INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AMIDST BACKED SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN WITH PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY HIGH CLOUD BASES/MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR...RELATIVELY GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES SEEMINGLY EXISTS FROM WCNTRL/NCNTRL NEB INTO WRN SD. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 45830270 45230036 42449819 39369784 38919971 38910181 42870341 45370385 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 23:18:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 18:18:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062330.j56NU25D013303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062328 MTZ000-WYZ000-070030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE WY INTO SE MT CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 417... VALID 062328Z - 070030Z APPEARS TORNADO WATCH 417 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z...WITH SEVERE/ISOLD TORNADO THREAT REMAINING ACROSS SE MT EAST OF BILLINGS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PRIMARY SEVERE/ISOLD TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT NEWD OUT OF NE WY/FAR SE MT COINCIDENT WITH PROGRESSION OF LEADING VORTICITY MAXIMA EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND STORM MERGERS/GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A DOWNWARD SEVERE TREND REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. NEVERTHELESS POSSIBILITIES FOR SEVERE/ISOLD TORNADO WILL PERSIST EAST OF BILLINGS ACROSS SE MT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ... 46420719 46670614 46320413 44730410 45420683 45680692 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 00:08:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 19:08:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506070019.j570JY6o031864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070018 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-070145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1212 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/WEST TX INTO FAR SW KS/WRN OK/FAR NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419... VALID 070018Z - 070145Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE WATCH 419 CONTINUES THROUGH 03Z. AN ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT SEVERE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 01Z INTO FAR SW KS/WRN OK AND THE REMAINDER OF THE TX PANHANDLE/WEST TX. DEVELOPING LINEAR CLUSTER OF MULTICELLS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE/PROPAGATE EWD AT 25-30 KTS ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST TX. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY PER 00Z DDC/AMA/MAF OBSERVED RAOBS...WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG OR GREATER. EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT EWD OUT OF WW 419 IS UNCLEAR GIVEN EVENTUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/LIMITED BACKGROUND DYNAMIC ASCENT. NEVERTHELESS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND EXISTENT COLD POOLS/FORWARD PROPAGATION MAY SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT ENE INTO FAR SW KS/WRN OK AND THE REMAINDER OF WEST TX...SUCH THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. ..GUYER.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 36900398 38090029 37999941 36779890 33819922 31020112 30500265 30960403 31930454 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 01:27:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 20:27:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506070138.j571cF7H029277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070137 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070137 SDZ000-NDZ000-070300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1213 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0837 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND...CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070137Z - 070300Z ...WW WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS... LLJ IS IN THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING FROM NRN NEB INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SCATTERED SUPERCELLS HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS WRN SD/SWRN MT INTO SWRN ND WHERE AN AXIS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR CURRENTLY EXIST. AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. CURRENT THINKING IS TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY ELEVATE AS DECOUPLING OCCURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INHIBITION OBSERVED AT BIS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WITHIN BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME COMPLICATES THE SEVERE EVOLUTION...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WITH TIME...ONE OR MORE MCS/S MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 43550111 47830171 47420006 43599831 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 02:25:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 21:25:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506070236.j572ah7b022293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070235 NEZ000-070400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1214 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0935 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420...422... VALID 070235Z - 070400Z ...SEVERE THREAT IS BECOMING FOCUSED TO TWO MAIN CLUSTERS ACROSS NEB... HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION HAS MOVED NEWD INTO CENTRAL NEB BENEATH STRENGTHENING LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY IN ALL LIKLIHOOD HAS LIFTED SOMEWHAT...BECOMING MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. SEVERE THREAT MAY GRADUALLY WANE...OR AT LEAST BE LIMITED TO MAINLY LARGE HAIL AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES TOWARD THE ERN EDGE OF WW422. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 42819932 40279876 40300054 42450077 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 03:02:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 22:02:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506070313.j573DjCX005135@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070312 NDZ000-070445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1215 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH DAKOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070312Z - 070445Z ...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL ND. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... NRN HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION HAS PROGRESSED DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS...HAVING EVOLVED INTO AN ARCING SQUALL LINE FROM DUNN COUNTY ND TO ADAMS COUNTY ND. THIS ACTIVITY IS SURGING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED...WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS DEVELOPING MCS WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...DESPITE BEING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR DOWNSTREAM PORTIONS OF ND FOR THIS SCENARIO. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 47670260 48999901 46719743 45940122 46860203 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 03:34:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 22:34:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506070345.j573jMx2018302@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070344 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-070515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1216 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN HIGH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423... VALID 070344Z - 070515Z ...STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL PROGRESS INTO WRN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NEARING THE NERN EDGE OF WW423. THIS ACTIVITY HAS YET TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THREE NOTABLE STRONG UPDRAFTS NEAR PVW...40 E OF AMA...AND WEST OF GAG. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE STRONG VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...WHILE 03Z PROFILERS STILL DISPLAY ROUGHLY 35-40KT 6KM FLOW ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN 00Z DATA OF A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION. IF SO...STORMS MAY PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS INTO WRN PORTIONS OF OK BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 34390333 35490113 37599953 36509900 33830114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 06:38:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 01:38:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506070649.j576nS4E020292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070647 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070646 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-070815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424... VALID 070646Z - 070815Z A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ERN ND AND ERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A NEW WW ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT IN PLACE EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NE SD INTO SCNTRL MN. A CONVECTIVE LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN ND WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND ELEVATED CAPE DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE LINE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN SD...MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS BUT A CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...PROFILERS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW...SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL NOT BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN ERN SD. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BECOME MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY DROPS OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 48019990 45899981 43679955 43429860 43529730 44119689 45939677 48619715 48939861 48759978  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 09:59:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 04:59:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506071010.j57AANZ0030338@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071008 MNZ000-071215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071008Z - 071215Z A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN A LINE MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MN THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN MN WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH IS NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INCREASING DUE TO AN APPROACHING VORTICITY MAX ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER SRN SD. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOCATED ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MN. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS MAY REDUCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MN THIS MORNING. ..BROYLES.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 44279455 45459564 46939566 47119458 45929334 44549337 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 14:26:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 09:26:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506071437.j57EbMHp004844@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071436 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071436 WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-071600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN UT/SWRN WY/NWRN CO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 071436Z - 071600Z ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM NERN UT INTO SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL WY AND NWRN CO. HAIL...LOCALLY APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES...IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT DURING THE MORNING. AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT ACROSS SWRN-SRN WY INTO NWRN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-25 C AT EKO/ ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN UT AT 14Z. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED ON THE 12Z SLC SOUNDING...THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESULTED IN A FEW SEVERE HAIL REPORTS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND 700 MB THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL INTO SWRN WY/ NWRN CO TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EXIT REGION OF A 55 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO NWRN CO/SRN WY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...WHILE VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH... 40591136 43061134 43300934 43150748 42000678 41270671 40660719 39520944 39581114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 14:43:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 09:43:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506071455.j57Et3tq017340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071454 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071454 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-071700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1220 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA/SE MN/WRN INTO CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071454Z - 071700Z ...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS ONGOING STORMS BECOME SFC BASED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL... A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SE MN INTO SW WI THIS MORNING...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM OWATONNA TO WINONA. STORMS NOW W OF EAU CLAIRE WI ARE ELEVATED GIVEN WARM LAYER AROUND 850MB NOTED ON 12Z MINNEAPOLIS SOUNDING. HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH...MORE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN AN INSTABILITY AXIS...EXTENDING NORTH FROM IA. SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS NE IA AND THE SRN HALF OF WI WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S OR HIGHER. STORMS WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED THE ROCHESTER MN AREA HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF 1 INCH HAIL...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME SFC BASED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF EJECTING WAVE IN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. WHILE STORMS ARE STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 18-19Z SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BE COMPLETELY ERODED ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI. ..TAYLOR.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 42139189 42319258 42699285 44059266 45239212 45299130 45319075 45278966 44938944 44168922 43428933 42968974 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 17:55:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 12:55:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506071806.j57I6kXB019864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071806 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-072000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1221 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425... VALID 071806Z - 072000Z SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WW 425 THROUGH 21Z. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE OVER WRN WI REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG. WEAKENING INHIBITION IS EVIDENT BY RECENT TRENDS OF REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/ISOLATED SVR STORMS ALONG GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW OVER CENTRAL WI. WELL DEFINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SWRN WI ENEWD INTO CENTRAL WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GREATEST SVR HAIL POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OVER SWRN PORTIONS OF WW 425...WHERE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER MID LVL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER CENTRAL/ERN WI...FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE LINE AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... 44798773 44968902 45088992 43929104 43629128 43429120 43118800 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 18:43:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 13:43:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506071854.j57IsRIf017926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071853 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-072100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL VA SWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC...CENTRAL/ERN SC AND ERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071853Z - 072100Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SERN GA NWD TO SCENTRAL VA. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA...MID LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -9 TO -10 DEG AT 500 MB WILL SUPPORT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL. IN ADDITION...STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 DEG C/KM WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTIVE STORM MERGERS OCCUR GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY. LACK OF STRONGER FOCUSING MECHANISM AT MID LEVELS AND WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 36907873 35828042 34228262 33098339 32528313 32578209 33877991 35437758 36597715 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 19:10:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 14:10:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506071922.j57JM0Ix003286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071920 WIZ000-MNZ000-072015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SERN MN AND WCENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071920Z - 072015Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR. STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT. A WW MAY BE NEED SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW NEAR STC SEWD TO NEAR LSE. 18Z MPX SOUNDING INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 DEG C/KM. SWLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH WERE AIDING IN MIXING DOWN OF DRIER 850 MB AIR AND DEWPTS HAVE SLOWLY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S. GIVEN FOCUSED LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL /100-150 J/KG FROM 0-1 KM/ SHEAR ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE SEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44259113 45159205 45969315 46409425 44969424 43929249 43549143 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 19:18:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 14:18:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506071929.j57JTjNh008567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071929 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071928 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-072130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN OK/FAR NWRN AR...SERN KS...WRN AND NCENTRAL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071928Z - 072130Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIMITED NATURE OF THE THREAT EXPECTED ATTM WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM FAR NERN OK INTO NCENTRAL MO. SEVERAL SFC/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL INTERACT TO AID IN CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/ INTENSIFICATION. 1) AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER SCENTRAL MO WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CONVERGENCE WHILE MOVING NWWD OVER WRN/CENTRAL MO. 2) AN MCV OVER SERN KS WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER LIFT WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WWD INTO SWRN/WCENTRAL MO. DESPITE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KTS...MODERATE DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY...3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE...OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 40309342 40389475 39119520 37549552 36919564 36499576 35849519 36209369 36839304 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 19:43:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 14:43:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506071954.j57JsJD1023306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071953 SDZ000-NEZ000-072030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL SD INTO NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071953Z - 072030Z WW WILL BE REQUIRED SOON. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER SRN WY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS WY. A SECOND LOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE WITH TWO ZONES OF CONVERGENCE EXTENDING EWD AND NEWD FROM THE NEB LOW. ONE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER...AND THE SECOND EXTENDED NEWD INTO CENTRAL...THEN NERN SD. SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE WNWWD INTO WRN SD/WRN NEB WITH THE 60 F SURFACE ISODROSOTHERM NOW EXTENDING FROM FAITH SD SWD INTO NEB AT CDR TO OGA. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS AIDING IN DESTABILIZATION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING WWD INTO SWRN SD/NWRN NEB. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU/TCU CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN SD AND ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WRN SD...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO NWRN-NRN NEB AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 44830382 45360380 45640314 45520110 44710028 43789971 43539930 42879918 42339981 42210110 41920236 42070373 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 20:18:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 15:18:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506072029.j57KTXQ7013852@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072028 WIZ000-MNZ000-072100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425... VALID 072028Z - 072100Z SVR WW 425 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 21Z. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT SVR THREAT MAY BE TEMPORARILY WANING ACROSS WW 425 /CENTRAL AND SRN WI/. ISOLATED SVR STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EITHER WITH REINTENSIFICATION OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...OR NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. EWD STORM MOTIONS WOULD QUICKLY AID IN A RAPID DEMISE OF ANY BRIEF SVR THREAT THAT WOULD OCCUR WITH THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTION AS ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY STABLE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER WEST...NEW SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE BY 23Z OVER PORTIONS OF WRN WI NEAR WW 427. THUS A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE SVR THREAT MAY BECOME GREATER. ..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... 44948832 44238937 44159066 44039130 43549138 43138800 44828769 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 20:42:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 15:42:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506072053.j57Krg9v028261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072052 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072052 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-072145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1227 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN WY INTO FAR SRN/SERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426... VALID 072052Z - 072145Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NRN-NERN WY AND SERN MT. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW OVER CENTRAL WY...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING TO DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO SRN WY IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW. SURFACE WINDS AIDED IN STRENGTH BY THIS ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WERE RANGING FROM 25-40 KT ACROSS SRN WY. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO NRN-NERN WY AND SERN MT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE...BUT STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 42820875 43060919 44520971 45450938 45900883 45980706 46030473 45680396 44480399 42290413 42280532 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 21:30:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 16:30:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506072141.j57LfUo8026322@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072140 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-072245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NWRN SD...SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072140Z - 072245Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED... STRONG EXIT REGION OF SRN WY SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE NNEWD ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION INTO SERN MT/WRN ND THIS EVENING. MODELS INSIST THIS REGION WILL EXPERIENCE EXPANDING CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...SFC DEW POINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S INTO SERN MT...MAY SUPPORT TORNADO THREAT FARTHER WEST THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46180565 47640077 46179887 44970024 44780414 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 21:43:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 16:43:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506072154.j57LsZ1Z001692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072153 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-072230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0453 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN MN NRN AND CENTRAL WI...SWRN U.P OF MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 427... VALID 072153Z - 072230Z SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL WI IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS EAST OF WW 427 WITH THREAT DEVELOPING INTO SWRN U.P OF MI AFTER 00Z. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 2230Z. AIRMASS OVER NRN/CENTRAL WI WAS DESTABILIZING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION THAT RECENTLY DIMINISHED OVER ECENTRAL WI. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NRN WI THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN WARM AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME NE OF SLOWLY NEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING NW-SE OVER WRN WI AT 21Z. IN ADDITION GIVEN CURRENT STORM MOTIONS ISO SVR STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF ERN PORTIONS OF WW 427 AND BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NCENTRAL/WCENTRAL WI BY 23Z. GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...SVR HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150 J/KG BASED ON THE GRB VWP/ AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN WI WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED TOR THREAT AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46368995 46389250 46279320 44439368 43719334 43899006 44478791 46248817 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 21:47:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 16:47:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506072159.j57Lx43j003392@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072140 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-072245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NWRN SD...SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072140Z - 072245Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED... STRONG EXIT REGION OF SRN WY SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE NNEWD ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION INTO SERN MT/WRN ND THIS EVENING. MODELS INSIST THIS REGION WILL EXPERIENCE EXPANDING CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...SFC DEW POINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S INTO SERN MT...MAY SUPPORT TORNADO THREAT FARTHER WEST THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46180565 47640077 46179887 44970024 44780414  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 21:57:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 16:57:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506072208.j57M87Yo008264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072153 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-072230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0453 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN MN NRN AND CENTRAL WI...SWRN U.P OF MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 427... VALID 072153Z - 072230Z SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL WI IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS EAST OF WW 427 WITH THREAT DEVELOPING INTO SWRN U.P OF MI AFTER 00Z. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 2230Z. AIRMASS OVER NRN/CENTRAL WI WAS DESTABILIZING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION THAT RECENTLY DIMINISHED OVER ECENTRAL WI. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NRN WI THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN WARM AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME NE OF SLOWLY NEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING NW-SE OVER WRN WI AT 21Z. IN ADDITION GIVEN CURRENT STORM MOTIONS ISO SVR STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF ERN PORTIONS OF WW 427 AND BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NCENTRAL/WCENTRAL WI BY 23Z. GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...SVR HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150 J/KG BASED ON THE GRB VWP/ AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN WI WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED TOR THREAT AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46368995 46389250 46279320 44439368 43719334 43899006 44478791 46248817  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 23:18:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 18:18:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506072329.j57NThQj013701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072328 TXZ000-080130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX NWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072328Z - 080130Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN NNEWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 01Z. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF SVR THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF MDT/TOWERING CU ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SW OF MAF TO SOUTH OF LBB. 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA SUGGEST THAT VERY LITTLE CINH REMAINS DESPITE THE LACK OF GREATER STORM COVERAGE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...BACKED SELY WINDS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN WAS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THIS REGION. THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH 01Z. FARTHER NORTH OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE IT IS UNCLEAR IF STORM DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVERGENCE. FARTHER SOUTH...AND ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER PECOS COUNTY SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD INTO TERRELL COUNTY THROUGH 01Z. RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION FROM LASTING WELL AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT OVER THE BIG BEND REGION WHERE STRONGER BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT A LONGER LIVED ALBEIT SPATIALLY SMALL SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 35580049 35330135 34590167 33470203 32250235 31320288 30300295 29840262 29880197 32250088 35080033 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 00:04:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 19:04:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506080015.j580FNsH031256@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080014 NDZ000-SDZ000-080145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1231 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL DAKOTAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428...429... VALID 080014Z - 080145Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW428 AND WW429... MULTIPLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN BROADER ZONE OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM WRN SD INTO SCNTRL ND. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE BUOYANT...SBCAPES OF 3000-4000J/KG...AND STRONGLY SHEARED...FAVORING CONTINUED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. APPROACHING UPPER SPEED MAX APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING DEEPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN PROXIMITY TO SW-NE CONVECTIVE ORIENTATION. WITH TIME SUFFICIENT COLD POOL GENERATION WILL FORCE EXPANDING MCS EWD WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO VEER INTO BACK SIDE OF MCS. ..DARROW.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 43180303 44640262 46750053 46059885 43410062 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 00:33:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 19:33:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506080044.j580iCR7010552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080043 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-080215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1232 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL WI AND SWRN U.P OF MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 427...430... VALID 080043Z - 080215Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE WANING ACROSS WW 427 AS HIGH LCL/S WERE PRESENT AND LINEAR MODE WAS BECOMING DOMINANT OVER SCENTRAL/SERN MN. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BECOME LINEAR...DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THIS AREA THROUGH WW EXPIRATION TIME /02Z/. FARTHER EAST OVER NRN/CENTRAL WI AND FAR SWRN U.P OF MI...MORE ISOLATED STORMS...LOWER LCL HEIGHTS AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PER THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING INDICATE THAT THEIR REMAINS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER MUCH OF WW 430. HOWEVER...SEVERAL RECENT STORM MERGERS OVER WCENTRAL WI AND A 30-35 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL SPEED PER THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MODE WITH A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT AFTER 02Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45908712 45968927 45379134 44649302 43989407 43619430 43649276 43679177 43848778 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 02:09:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 21:09:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506080220.j582KMon022744@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080218 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-080315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1233 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN/NERN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 428...429... VALID 080218Z - 080315Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED SHORTLY... WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS. THIS APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AS DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS MN HAS STALLED AND BECOME ORIENTED IN AN E-W FASHION. MOIST...DEEP ELY FLOW INTO THE EXPANDING MCS SUGGESTS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST FOR SOME TIME. ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... 42790048 47319843 46969595 43319724 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 03:24:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 22:24:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506080336.j583a03k024782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080335 MIZ000-WIZ000-080500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080335Z - 080500Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING... UPPER RIDGE IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING LLJ TO BECOME DECIDEDLY WLY ACROSS MI AS IT FOCUSES INTO SWRN ONTARIO. EVEN SO...PROFILES STILL EXHIBIT SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT...SUGGESTING WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THIS REGION. AS A RESULT...SQUALL LINE OVER WI REMAINS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SEWD AT ROUGHLY 30KT TOWARD THE NRN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI. IT APPEARS GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER BOW-LIKE STRUCTURES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS CONSIDERABLY LESS INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS MI. ..DARROW.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB... 44748775 45608520 44678349 43968710 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 03:28:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 22:28:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506080339.j583dYcG026563@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080339 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080338 WIZ000-MNZ000-080515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL MN INTO CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080338Z - 080515Z ...NEW WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL MN INTO CNTRL WI... LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRANCH INTO TWO STREAMS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ERN STREAM ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. THE WRN STREAM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS SRN MN BETWEEN 06-09Z. SFC ANALYSES FROM THE LAST FEW HOURS SHOW TIGHTENING BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN MN. MASS INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AND A WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FROM PORTIONS OF WCNTRL MN WHERE RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST NEW CONVECTION...INTO CNTRL WI WHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SFC BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY SURGED SOUTH OF ONGOING STORMS...SO MAIN THREAT WITH ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ..TAYLOR.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...FSD... 44919170 45079516 44189550 43779291 43879062 44068962 44538942 44868939 44978965 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 04:35:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 23:35:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506080446.j584kuOS021331@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080446 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080446 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-080545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1236 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...ERN SD...WRN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 432... VALID 080446Z - 080545Z ...DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SURGING SQUALL LINE ACROSS NERN SD INTO WCNTRL MN... EXPANSIVE MCS HAS EMERGED OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING WITH A NOTABLE SURGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS NERN SD. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SQUALL LINE IS RACING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 50KT TOWARD WCNTRL PORTIONS OF MN...INVOF TRAVERSE/BIG STONE COUNTIES. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES REMAIN CAPABLE OF GENERATING SHORTLIVED TORNADOES. SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS WRN MN OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ..DARROW.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 43519811 45159722 46419794 46339467 43979606 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 05:28:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 00:28:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506080540.j585e2Fq010259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080539 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080539 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-080715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432... VALID 080539Z - 080715Z A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO WILL HAVE A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS MN OVERNIGHT. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY EAST OF WW 432. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NEWD AROUND AN LARGE UPPER-LOW CENTER OVER THE NWRN STATES. THIS WILL DRIVE THE CONVECTIVE LINE EWD ACROSS MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM NE SD ACROSS SCNTRL MN. THE MOST SEVERE STORMS SHOULD TRAVEL EWD AND NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AXIS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION....WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE PROBABLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 44009382 43799502 43969630 45189662 46289655 46679623 46869514 46609376 44859340 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 08:36:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 03:36:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506080847.j588lkhF020325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080847 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080846 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-081015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1238 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN/WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434... VALID 080846Z - 081015Z A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING ACROSS ERN MN. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP OFF AS THE LINE MOVES EWD AND A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN WI INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SW MN INTO ERN NEB. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE SFC LOW WITH ABOUT 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND A HAIL THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THE LINE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOWN BY THE RUC OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN. IN ADDITION...THE LINE SHOULD MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR IN WI ALLOWING IT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 45939003 43879048 43309137 43499360 44319430 46169386 46749307 46679119 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 13:45:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 08:45:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081356.j58DuUu2005121@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081355 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-081500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0855 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN-CENTRAL MO/ERN KS/SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081355Z - 081500Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS MUCH OF WRN-CENTRAL MO INTO ERN KS AND SRN IA. WV IMAGERY/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS TO THE KS/NEB BORDER. REGIONAL RADARS/ LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE/ INTENSITY ACROSS NWRN MO...WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN SWRN IA ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF MCS MOVING ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY ATTM. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED TCU DEVELOPING RAPIDLY SWWD INTO EAST CENTRAL KS. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY SUGGEST THE NEW STORMS AND TCU ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THE AIR MASS CAPPED ATTM...BUT STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS ERN KS INTO MUCH OF MO/SRN IA AND WRN IL WILL WEAKEN THIS CAP AS INDICATED BY CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES OF CINH AROUND -100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ATTM...THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEING FED INTO THIS REGION PER 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO COMPENSATE FOR THE SHEAR TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE NAM/RUC INDICATE THIS LLJ WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT. HOWEVER...THESE SPEEDS COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS CAP WEAKENS...PRIND SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT... 40229470 40829445 41179351 40829241 39089193 37629228 36939285 36979436 37159556 37439598 39229510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 14:37:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 09:37:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081448.j58EmGoW007284@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081447 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081447 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-081515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0947 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN IA AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081447Z - 081515Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SRN IA AND NRN MO. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG SRN/SWRN PORTION OF MCS MOVING ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONG WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH THIS ACTIVITY SUGGESTS PROPAGATION WILL CONTINUE TO THE ESE WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO. DESPITE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WEAKENING CAP WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 39059437 40419412 41229348 41509273 41609181 41369111 40639100 39779105 39029133 39119321 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 16:36:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 11:36:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081647.j58GlTnU022647@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081646 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-081715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MO INTO WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435... VALID 081646Z - 081715Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF ERN MO INTO WRN IL. WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE COLD POOL TO MID 80S DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH EXTENDED FROM SERN IA TO NWRN MO /JUST EAST OF KANSAS CITY/ WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 39829378 40579344 41259263 41269104 40888961 39348923 38328966 38299076 38549381 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 16:52:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 11:52:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081703.j58H3dfD000572@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081703 OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-081800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN IND SWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KY TO MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081703Z - 081800Z ISOLATED WIND GUSTS APPROACHING AND/OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN IND SWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KY TO MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL. SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK ZONE OF CONFLUENCE AND INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING N-S ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN. THESE STORMS...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY...APPEAR TO BE AIDED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. PULSE TYPE STORMS ARE EXPECTED... GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS /AROUND 12 KFT/ SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE... WHILE THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...PAH... 37008769 39588732 39988679 39818463 39368417 37478466 35338533 34078568 33938630 34008728 34378803 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 16:56:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 11:56:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081707.j58H7og4003726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081646 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-081715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MO INTO WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435... VALID 081646Z - 081715Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF ERN MO INTO WRN IL. WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE COLD POOL TO MID 80S DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH EXTENDED FROM SERN IA TO NWRN MO /JUST EAST OF KANSAS CITY/ WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 39829378 40579344 41259263 41269104 40888961 39348923 38328966 38299076 38549381  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 17:15:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 12:15:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081726.j58HQoC5016366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081703 OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-081800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN IND SWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KY TO MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081703Z - 081800Z ISOLATED WIND GUSTS APPROACHING AND/OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN IND SWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KY TO MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL. SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK ZONE OF CONFLUENCE AND INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING N-S ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN. THESE STORMS...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY...APPEAR TO BE AIDED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. PULSE TYPE STORMS ARE EXPECTED... GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS /AROUND 12 KFT/ SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE... WHILE THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...PAH... 37008769 39588732 39988679 39818463 39368417 37478466 35338533 34078568 33938630 34008728 34378803  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 17:51:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 12:51:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081802.j58I2wsi007436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081802 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-082000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN LA...CENTRAL/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081802Z - 082000Z STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 12Z UA ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL AN MCV WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT /- 10 TO -11 DEG C AT 500 MB/ LOCATED OVER SWRN LA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A SFC BOUNDARY AND VERY WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG HAS ALREADY AIDED IN STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/WCENTRAL MS. ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCV OVER PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL AND ERN LA DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. DESPITE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DWPTS...MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SOME MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS EVIDENT BY THE 12Z JAN AND LIX SOUNDINGS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ESPECIALLY IF COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT/STORM MERGERS OCCUR. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 33059040 32469117 31999237 31539331 31159363 30399343 30129304 30429105 30679030 30998977 31908918 32868934 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 17:53:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 12:53:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081804.j58I4SEJ008570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081803 MOZ000-KSZ000-081830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN KS INTO WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435... VALID 081803Z - 081830Z TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO REPLACE WW 435 AND EXTEND INTO ERN KS TO CENTRAL MO. EARLY AFTERNOON MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED THE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDED FROM FAR SERN NEB TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR MEDICINE LODGE AND THEN WSWWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AT 1730Z. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED TCU DEVELOPING OVER NWRN MO NEAR STJ...WITH THIS NEW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LOCATED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN MO INTO FAR SERN NEB. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 4000+ J/KG AND LITTLE TO NO CAP LEFT ACROSS THIS REGION. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SWWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOWARD SRN KS. DESPITE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARIES...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39689602 39939543 39759366 40069178 38069179 37349290 37049453 37129664 37069742 38009692 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 18:02:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 13:02:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081813.j58IDVwK014898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081802 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-082000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN LA...CENTRAL/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081802Z - 082000Z STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 12Z UA ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL AN MCV WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT /- 10 TO -11 DEG C AT 500 MB/ LOCATED OVER SWRN LA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A SFC BOUNDARY AND VERY WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG HAS ALREADY AIDED IN STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/WCENTRAL MS. ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCV OVER PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL AND ERN LA DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. DESPITE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DWPTS...MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SOME MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS EVIDENT BY THE 12Z JAN AND LIX SOUNDINGS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ESPECIALLY IF COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT/STORM MERGERS OCCUR. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 33059040 32469117 31999237 31539331 31159363 30399343 30129304 30429105 30679030 30998977 31908918 32868934  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 18:03:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 13:03:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081814.j58IEKp8015847@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081803 MOZ000-KSZ000-081830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN KS INTO WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435... VALID 081803Z - 081830Z TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO REPLACE WW 435 AND EXTEND INTO ERN KS TO CENTRAL MO. EARLY AFTERNOON MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED THE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDED FROM FAR SERN NEB TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR MEDICINE LODGE AND THEN WSWWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AT 1730Z. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED TCU DEVELOPING OVER NWRN MO NEAR STJ...WITH THIS NEW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LOCATED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN MO INTO FAR SERN NEB. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 4000+ J/KG AND LITTLE TO NO CAP LEFT ACROSS THIS REGION. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SWWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOWARD SRN KS. DESPITE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARIES...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39689602 39939543 39759366 40069178 38069179 37349290 37049453 37129664 37069742 38009692  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 18:42:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 13:42:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081853.j58IrIgf010892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081852 ILZ000-MOZ000-081915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1245 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IL INTO EAST CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436... VALID 081852Z - 081915Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO LIKELY REPLACE WW 436. WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH LEADING EDGE BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE INTO IL AND NERN-ERN MO ATTM. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE NRN PART OF THE BOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MERCER COUNTY IL...AND NEWD TO FAR SERN WI. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THIS BOW MOVES ESEWD INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS IL INTO ERN MO. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND BOW ECHO...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ENHANCED. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39339137 40229118 41269053 41858941 41938874 41018813 39668821 38688845 38218915 38209018 38409109 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 19:12:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 14:12:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081923.j58JNli5031973@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081923 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081922 NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-082115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1246 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECENTRAL NY...SRN VT/SRN NH AND NWRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081922Z - 082115Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NRN NY AS IT MOVES ESEWD INTO SRN VT/NH AND ECENTRAL NY. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NRN NY WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. AREA REMAINS ON THE SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE CANADA. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES FAVORS LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS MAY ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL GIVEN AMT OF INSTABILITY. LIMITED WIND STRENGTH /AOB 20 KTS/ IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER ORGANIZED WIND THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43787193 44077364 44027481 43907514 43457539 43087528 42787417 42747258 42817168 43607147 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 19:48:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 14:48:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081959.j58JxRDZ023334@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081958 MIZ000-082200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1247 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081958Z - 082200Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER NRN LOWER MI. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS OVER NCENTRAL LOWER MI HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF BEING IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH PULSE TYPE NATURE OBSERVED WHILE CONVECTION IS BEING UNDERCUT BY LAKE BREEZE FRONT. VIS SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING N-S OVER WRN LOWER MI IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. IN THE SHORT TERM /NEXT 1-2 HOURS/...WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...AS EVIDENT BY 18Z DTX SOUNDING WILL LIKELY MITIGATE A GREATER SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS IN THE GRB VWP SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED TO OVER 40 KTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCV MOVING EWD OVER ERN WI. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING ORGANIZED SVR THREAT AND POSSIBLE WW GIVEN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH MUCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF LOWER MI. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 44938436 44728518 43838588 42968593 42478580 42488444 43128287 43968278 44758366 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 20:39:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 15:39:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506082051.j58Kp0AE024986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082049 WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-082245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1248 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN ND...NWRN AND NCENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082049Z - 082245Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER FAR NERN ND TO THE NW OF GFK. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW INTO WCENTRAL/SWRN MN. WEST OF THIS TROUGH...DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S. ATTM...ENOUGH CINH REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE AREA LIMITING STORM DEVELOPMENT TO PORTIONS OF NERN ND WHERE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS OVER NWRN/NCENTRAL MN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEWPTS SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN ENVIRONMENT OF MUCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND LITTLE REMAINING CINH. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH SHEAR THAT LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A WW WILL BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL WARMING GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER NRN AND CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH DESPITE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS... 47759369 48759499 48879811 48289869 48029928 47609867 47249616 46669582 46089541 45389487 45369345 45629253 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 20:51:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 15:51:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506082102.j58L2HWi031405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082100 MOZ000-KSZ000-082200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN-CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 437... VALID 082100Z - 082200Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF WW 437. SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTINUED WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S/ RESULTING IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-5000 J/KG. REGIONAL RADARS/VIS IMAGERY INDICATED TCU DEVELOPING ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THIS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT THE PRESENT TIME BETWEEN EMP-STJ. DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PER MODIFIED OLATHE KANSAS WIND PROFILER FOR CURRENT OJC SURFACE WIND HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO...GIVEN /SFC-6 KM SHEAR AT 32 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH AROUND 150 M2/S2. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH STORMS OVER THE ERN PORTION OF WW 437 AS WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IN WAKE OF E-W ORIENTED SQUALL LINE OVER CENTRAL MO MOVES SWD. SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN COLD POOL AND PRE-CONVECTIVE AIR MASS RANGES FROM 25-30 DEGREES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PORTION OF WW THIS AFTERNOON...AS SQUALL LINE MOVES INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500-4000 J/KG/. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39339712 39819158 37829157 37299712 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 20:53:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 15:53:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506082104.j58L4QrC000988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082049 WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-082245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1248 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN ND...NWRN AND NCENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082049Z - 082245Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER FAR NERN ND TO THE NW OF GFK. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW INTO WCENTRAL/SWRN MN. WEST OF THIS TROUGH...DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S. ATTM...ENOUGH CINH REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE AREA LIMITING STORM DEVELOPMENT TO PORTIONS OF NERN ND WHERE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS OVER NWRN/NCENTRAL MN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEWPTS SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN ENVIRONMENT OF MUCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND LITTLE REMAINING CINH. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH SHEAR THAT LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A WW WILL BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL WARMING GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER NRN AND CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH DESPITE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS... 47759369 48759499 48879811 48289869 48029928 47609867 47249616 46669582 46089541 45389487 45369345 45629253  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 20:59:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 15:59:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506082110.j58LA7Yd004658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082100 MOZ000-KSZ000-082200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN-CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 437... VALID 082100Z - 082200Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF WW 437. SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTINUED WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S/ RESULTING IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-5000 J/KG. REGIONAL RADARS/VIS IMAGERY INDICATED TCU DEVELOPING ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THIS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT THE PRESENT TIME BETWEEN EMP-STJ. DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PER MODIFIED OLATHE KANSAS WIND PROFILER FOR CURRENT OJC SURFACE WIND HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO...GIVEN /SFC-6 KM SHEAR AT 32 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH AROUND 150 M2/S2. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH STORMS OVER THE ERN PORTION OF WW 437 AS WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IN WAKE OF E-W ORIENTED SQUALL LINE OVER CENTRAL MO MOVES SWD. SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN COLD POOL AND PRE-CONVECTIVE AIR MASS RANGES FROM 25-30 DEGREES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PORTION OF WW THIS AFTERNOON...AS SQUALL LINE MOVES INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500-4000 J/KG/. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39339712 39819158 37829157 37299712  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 21:02:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 16:02:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506082113.j58LDEJV005984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082112 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082112 ILZ000-MOZ000-082315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IL AND PORTIONS OF ERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438... VALID 082112Z - 082315Z WELL DEFINED COLD POOL EVIDENT OVER WCENTRAL IL/NERN MO WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SEWD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH MUCH OF WW 438 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NERN/ECENTRAL IL...HOWEVER CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SVR THREAT IN THIS AREA MAY BE WANING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A GUST FRONT MOVING SEWD AT 35 KTS ACROSS ECENTRAL MO/WCENTRAL IL NEAR THE STL METRO AREA. NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS GUST FRONT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED SVR THREAT WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS THE STL METRO AREA AND INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW 438 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND STRENGTH OF LINE...A NEW WW OVER SERN MO/SRN IL MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...THE GUST FRONT WAS SURGING EAST OF CONVECTION OVER ERN IL. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...SVR THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE MITIGATED OVER THIS REGION BEFORE 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF... 41608879 40938922 39998955 39099069 39149158 37919157 37349158 39408761 42008759 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 22:10:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 17:10:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506082221.j58MLZgV011071@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082220 KSZ000-OKZ000-090015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS...FAR NWRN/NCENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082220Z - 090015Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE INTERSECTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR ICT SWWD TO NEAR WOODWARD OK OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WINDS WERE BECOMING MORE CONVERGENT OVER SCENTRAL KS/NWRN OK ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE INTERSECTION. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WAS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES FROM 5000-6000 J/KG. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CORRIDOR FROM NEAR ICT SWWD TO JUST NW OF WOODWARD IN THE NEXT HOUR. DESPITE WEAKENING CINH...MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND STILL MARGINAL CONVERGENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. IF A STORM OR TWO DOES FORM...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY WOULD FAVOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO THREAT EARLY IN SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38009756 37649854 37369922 37149982 36669982 36299967 36439905 36779838 37289709 37689696 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 22:53:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 17:53:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506082304.j58N4ELN031729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082303 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-090030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082303Z - 090030Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTH OF CDS TO NEAR LBB SWD INTO THE DAVID MTNS. ISOLATED NATURE SUGGESTS THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR CDS SWWD TO SOUTH OF INK. CONVERGENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THUS ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT MOST ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM AND ROOT INTO HIGHER DEWPT AIR WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 34530034 33990159 33520236 33180290 31800341 30570301 30070262 30300199 32130144 32999990 33969907 34569948 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 23:12:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 18:12:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506082323.j58NN35k008138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082322 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-090045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1253 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IL...E CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438... VALID 082322Z - 090045Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM NERN IL SSWWD INTO CENTRAL / SRN IL AND THEN WWD INTO E CENTRAL MO. ONLY THE EXTREME ERN AND FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF WW REMAIN AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT WEAKER INSTABILITY / SHEAR ACROSS INDIANA SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING TREND ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT / LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL MO -- IN AND NEAR ERN PORTIONS OF WW 437 -- WHERE COMBINATION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED. ..GOSS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF... 41468792 41318726 40348702 39568699 38188791 37298942 36979132 37499243 38319270 39099231 39398982 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 00:15:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 19:15:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506090026.j590Qo1G002529@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090026 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-090200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1254 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK / CENTRAL AND ERN KS / WRN MO... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437... VALID 090026Z - 090200Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW...WITH SOME THREAT EXTENDING WSWWD FROM WRN PORTIONS OF WATCH INTO NWRN OK. NEW / REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. WIDESPREAD STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NERN KS SWWD INTO NWRN OK...WITHIN MOIST / EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MO / IL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING WWD ACROSS W CENTRAL MO. AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFY ACROSS SRN KS / SWRN MO...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE / INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME INVOF BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES. WITH DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET / ENHANCED SHEAR AND VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WITH TIME HOWEVER...EXPECT STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR-TYPE MCS...ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. WITH WW SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 09/02Z AND SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL BEYOND THIS TIME...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 39579616 39649461 38629354 37909315 36899588 36189908 37439961 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 00:52:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 19:52:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506090103.j5913nCi016870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090102 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-090200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1255 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / NERN KS / SWRN IA / NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 439... VALID 090102Z - 090200Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS WW AS WATCH NEARS ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION. GENERALLY WEAK / SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW. THOUGH STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN S OF THIS REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS NERN KS. THOUGH A FEW OF THESE NERN KS COUNTIES MAY BE INCLUDED IN A NEW WW OVER PARTS OF KS / MO REPLACING WW 437...WW 439 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 09/02Z. ..GOSS.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 41079700 41379425 39669399 39249661 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 04:28:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 23:28:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506090439.j594djZR011031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090439 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090438 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-090615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1256 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN KS / W CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440... VALID 090438Z - 090615Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WW. THOUGH STORMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW -- INTO WRN MO...STRONG / SEVERE STORMS PERSIST ACROSS S CENTRAL / SERN KS AS COLD POOL CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AIMED INTO SRN KS AND EXTREME INSTABILITY PERSISTING ACROSS THIS REGION...CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD / LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT ATTM EXISTS JUST N OF ICT...WHERE A CLUSTER OF LARGE / INTENSE STORMS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL ALSO APPEARS LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HAIL / WIND THREAT CONTINUES...AND SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY SWD AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD NRN OK. ..GOSS.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37039937 39079789 39169671 37999561 37989490 38249426 37979327 37419327 36759929 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 16:41:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 11:41:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506091652.j59GqmVd004060@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091652 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091651 OKZ000-091845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH W CNTRL AND SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091651Z - 091845Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS OVER CNTRL OK...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WWD AND SWWD DEVELOPMENT INTO WRN OK. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATE THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN AR JUST N OF FORT SMITH WNWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY THEN NWWD TO NEAR GAGE. DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN THROUGH WRN OK AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...15 TO 20 KT SLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE CAP WEAKENS. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY N OF THE BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. IF ENOUGH STORMS DEVELOP TO ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...SOME SLOW SWWD DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36069905 35919826 35959704 35689602 34919601 34509683 34559818 35039922 35979969 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 16:44:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 11:44:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506091655.j59Gt4uK006285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091654 COR OKZ000-091845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH W CNTRL AND SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091654Z - 091845Z CORRECTED FOR 6TH SENTENCE IN SECOND PARAGRAPH STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS OVER CNTRL OK...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WWD AND SWWD DEVELOPMENT INTO WRN OK. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATE THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN AR JUST N OF FORT SMITH WNWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY THEN NWWD TO NEAR GAGE. DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN THROUGH WRN OK AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...15 TO 20 KT SLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE CAP WEAKENS. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY N OF THE BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. IF ENOUGH STORMS DEVELOP TO ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...SOME SLOW SWWD DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36069905 35919826 35959704 35689602 34919601 34509683 34559818 35039922 35979969 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 16:46:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 11:46:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506091657.j59GvcIS007789@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091652 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091651 OKZ000-091845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH W CNTRL AND SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091651Z - 091845Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS OVER CNTRL OK...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WWD AND SWWD DEVELOPMENT INTO WRN OK. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATE THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN AR JUST N OF FORT SMITH WNWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY THEN NWWD TO NEAR GAGE. DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN THROUGH WRN OK AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...15 TO 20 KT SLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE CAP WEAKENS. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY N OF THE BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. IF ENOUGH STORMS DEVELOP TO ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...SOME SLOW SWWD DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36069905 35919826 35959704 35689602 34919601 34509683 34559818 35039922 35979969  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 16:48:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 11:48:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506091659.j59GxBuD009289@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091654 COR OKZ000-091845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH W CNTRL AND SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091654Z - 091845Z CORRECTED FOR 6TH SENTENCE IN SECOND PARAGRAPH STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS OVER CNTRL OK...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WWD AND SWWD DEVELOPMENT INTO WRN OK. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATE THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN AR JUST N OF FORT SMITH WNWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY THEN NWWD TO NEAR GAGE. DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN THROUGH WRN OK AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...15 TO 20 KT SLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE CAP WEAKENS. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY N OF THE BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. IF ENOUGH STORMS DEVELOP TO ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...SOME SLOW SWWD DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36069905 35919826 35959704 35689602 34919601 34509683 34559818 35039922 35979969  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 18:05:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 13:05:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506091816.j59IGAAG024869@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091815 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-092015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1258 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL NY...VT/NH AND WRN ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091815Z - 092015Z TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA POSES A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL RISK APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. FCST SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OVER THE AREA SUGGESTS THAT MUCAPES WERE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG OVER THE REGION. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN ONTARIO EWD ACROSS NRN NY...NRN VT/NRN NH INTO SWRN ME. AN UPPER WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER ERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AFOREMENTIONED E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK /AOB 30 KTS/ THUS...GIVEN VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW...OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR TYPE STORM STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR TYPE STRUCTURES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FURTHER SUPPORT CONVECTION EVENTUALLY BECOMING LINEAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ESEWD AROUND 20 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTIONS WITHIN INDIVIDUAL LINE SEGMENTS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 44767143 45097330 44757519 44267574 43877574 43257448 43337273 43227153 43577051 44017015 44627062 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 18:22:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 13:22:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506091834.j59IY5T3003593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091832 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-092100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS THROUGH ERN OK PANHANDLE...NERN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091832Z - 092100Z WRN KS THROUGH THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES INTO NWRN OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS BY 21Z. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY 21Z. THIS AFTERNOON A LARGE NEARLY STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OK NWWD THROUGH NWRN OK THEN NWD INTO WRN KS. A SURFACE LOW EXIST OVER SWRN KS WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN KS AND IS ADVECTING RICHER MOISTURE NWD WHERE IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONTRIBUTE TO RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RECOVERED INTO THE MID 60S OVER MUCH OF WRN KS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE 18Z RAOB FROM AMA SHOWED LITTLE CAP REMAINING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE DRYLINE SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX EWD AND MIGHT EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE AND OR ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED AS STORMS MOVE EWD AND OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE BACKED SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN LARGER LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... 36319909 35430021 35840098 39000134 39320044 37689995 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 19:27:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 14:27:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506091938.j59JcIcc010407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091935 MIZ000-WIZ000-092130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI WWD INTO ERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091935Z - 092130Z TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN LOWER MI ALONG LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY BEGIN TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THERE IS ALSO SOME CHANCE THAT ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER ERN WI/PORTIONS OF WCENTRAL/NWRN LOWER MI IN THE SAME TIME FRAME. WELL DEFINED MCV OVER ERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO WI THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BLR PROFILER SHOWS MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 40 KTS. APX VWP DATA SHOWS 5 KM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KTS. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS OVER THE AREA...COMBINED WITH ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI. FARTHER WEST OVER ERN WI IF THE CIRRUS SHIELD DOES NOT ADVANCE TOO RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH 21Z...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE PRESENT FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE CASE ONLY IF REMAINING CINH IS REMOVED AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX... 44698667 43698912 43158944 42558886 42528876 42548629 43158473 43658364 44848361 45508411 45288502 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 19:33:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 14:33:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506091944.j59Jip8B014397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091943 TXZ000-NMZ000-092145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NM THROUGH W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091943Z - 092145Z SERN NM THROUGH PARTS OF WRN TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. IF STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST INITIATION IS IMMINENT...A WW WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE JUST W OF AMARILLO SWWD INTO EXTREME SERN NM THEN SWD TO JUST E OF FORT STOCKTON. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE E OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE FROM 3500 TO 4000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF AND W OF THE DRYLINE WHERE DEEP MIXING IS OCCURRING. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD MOVE EWD AND INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERCEPT THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KT AND MODERATE WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT GIVEN SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 32210283 33230326 33840310 34860225 35590154 34900087 33180163 31080174 31010242 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 20:01:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 15:01:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506092012.j59KCcdn032503@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092011 OKZ000-092215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH WRN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441... VALID 092011Z - 092215Z GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE TORNADO WATCH OVER WRN OK. SOME POTENTIAL...THOUGH SOMEWHAT REDUCED...STILL EXISTS FOR A STORM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP OVER CNTRL OK. THIS AFTERNOON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WRN AR NEAR FORT SMITH WWD TO NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY THEN NW TO E OF GAGE. PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL OK HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED...AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. ALSO THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS BECOME MORE FOCUSED FARTHER W FROM NWRN OK INTO WRN KS. GIVEN THESE LIMITING FACTORS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CNTRL OK. HOWEVER...THE CAP HAS UNDERGONE SOME WEAKENING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 90 S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE MLCAPE NEAR 4000 J/KG EXISTS. IF A STORM OR TWO MANAGES TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD LIKELY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34839600 34759796 35439816 36249721 35649562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 20:48:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 15:48:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506092059.j59KxaO7032270@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092058 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-092300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1263 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB...SCENTRAL/SERN SD...NWRN IA AND SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092058Z - 092300Z WE ARE MONITORING THE AREA FOR INCREASING TRENDS AND A POTENTIAL FOR A WW BY 22Z. INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION IN ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NCENTRAL NEB/SCENTRAL SD. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES RISING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY MOVE ENEWD INTO SCENTRAL SD. FARTHER EAST...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NERN NEB/NWRN IA AND FAR SERN SD ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY SUPPORT SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 15 KTS/ IN THIS AREA AS EVIDENT BY 20Z MRR PROFILER AND FSD VWP DATA SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN DEVELOP/INTENSIFY GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 44009819 44059522 43389400 42799364 41949570 41849665 41979856 42159989 42540053 43560042 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 21:38:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 16:38:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506092148.j59Lmx8S028792@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092148 OKZ000-092215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0448 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441... VALID 092148Z - 092215Z WW 441 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 22Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE LEFT TO FOCUS NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL/SCENTRAL OK. ISOLATED NEW SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA COUNTY ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...GIVEN WWD MOTION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND MODERATE CINH EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SVR THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN ERN PORTIONS OF WW 442 NORTH OF KIOWA COUNTY AND WEST OF MAJOR AND BLAINE COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34999876 36419843 35669607 34219620 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 22:18:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 17:18:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506092229.j59MTJcM017898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092228 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-100000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1265 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S CENTRAL NEB / WRN AND N CENTRAL KS... CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 442... VALID 092228Z - 100000Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WW. NEW WW WILL BE NECESSARY SHORTLY INTO N CENTRAL KS / S CENTRAL NEB JUST E OF WW 442. SEVERAL SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE ERN HALF OF WW 442...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM NOW AFFECTING PARTS OF GRAHAM AND ROOKS COUNTIES IN NWRN KS. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. THOUGH INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH ERN EXTENT ACROSS NEB / KS...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO RECOVER ACROSS N CENTRAL KS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AFOREMENTIONED GRAHAM / ROOKS COUNTY STORM TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED E OF TORNADO WATCH 442 SHORTLY. ..GOSS.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA... 41170152 41189786 38689746 36930042 39290061 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 22:20:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 17:20:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506092231.j59MVLAE018759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092230 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-100000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1266 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092230Z - 100000Z TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF NRN CO SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE SHORTLY. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG/ EXTENDING WWD FROM SWRN NEB/NWRN KS INTO NERN CO ON THE NORTH SIDE OF SFC LOW OVER WCENTRAL KS. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWS MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ATOP NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING AROUND 50 KTS OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OVER NERN CO MORE THAN AMPLE FOR SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OVER NERN CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE. ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AS STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVEN NELY SFC WIND FIELDS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41180234 41330315 41020406 40660462 40270459 39500411 39130341 39150190 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 22:23:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 17:23:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506092234.j59MYA65020410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092228 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-100000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1265 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S CENTRAL NEB / WRN AND N CENTRAL KS... CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 442... VALID 092228Z - 100000Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WW. NEW WW WILL BE NECESSARY SHORTLY INTO N CENTRAL KS / S CENTRAL NEB JUST E OF WW 442. SEVERAL SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE ERN HALF OF WW 442...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM NOW AFFECTING PARTS OF GRAHAM AND ROOKS COUNTIES IN NWRN KS. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. THOUGH INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH ERN EXTENT ACROSS NEB / KS...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO RECOVER ACROSS N CENTRAL KS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AFOREMENTIONED GRAHAM / ROOKS COUNTY STORM TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED E OF TORNADO WATCH 442 SHORTLY. ..GOSS.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA... 41170152 41189786 38689746 36930042 39290061  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 22:23:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 17:23:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506092234.j59MYrLp020710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092230 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-100000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1266 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092230Z - 100000Z TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF NRN CO SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE SHORTLY. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG/ EXTENDING WWD FROM SWRN NEB/NWRN KS INTO NERN CO ON THE NORTH SIDE OF SFC LOW OVER WCENTRAL KS. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWS MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ATOP NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING AROUND 50 KTS OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OVER NERN CO MORE THAN AMPLE FOR SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OVER NERN CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE. ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AS STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVEN NELY SFC WIND FIELDS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41180234 41330315 41020406 40660462 40270459 39500411 39130341 39150190  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 23:18:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 18:18:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506092329.j59NTMdM015380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092328 OKZ000-TXZ000-100100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1267 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 443... VALID 092328Z - 100100Z STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE / WITHIN WRN HALF OF WW. LATEST VISIBLE / RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF DRYLINE NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR AMA SWD TO NEAR FST. AIRMASS E OF DRYLINE REMAINS MOIST / UNSTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND MEAN-LAYER CAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. ALONG WITH FAVORABLY MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS...SELY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 KT VEER TO VEER TO WSWLY AT 40 KT AT MID-LEVELS...RESULTING IN FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT. EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST -- AND PERHAPS INCREASE WITH TIME...AS INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SFC-1 KM SHEAR...POSSIBLY ENHANCING TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..GOSS.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 35500195 35509949 30230088 30250343 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 10 00:32:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 19:32:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506100043.j5A0hNkG012743@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100042 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-100215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND ERN NEB / N CENTRAL AND NERN KS / WRN IA / NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 444... VALID 100042Z - 100215Z SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD WITH TIME LIKELY REQUIRING NEW WW ISSUANCE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NEB AND POSSIBLY NERN KS INTO WRN IA / NWRN MO. THOUGH TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW -- PARTICULARLY IN SWRN PORTIONS OF WATCH BOX OVER N CENTRAL KS...STORMS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NE APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING INTO A LINEAR / BOWING MCS AS THEY SHIFT EWD ALONG THE KS / NEB BORDER. THOUGH AIRMASS FURTHER E REMAINS LESS MOIST / UNSTABLE...ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED EWD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EWD ACROSS NERN KS / NEB AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY INTO WRN IA / NWRN MO. ..GOSS.. 06/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC... 41899830 42209745 42459555 41549483 40349472 39629539 38849903 39739914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 10 01:24:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 20:24:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506100135.j5A1ZYaP002681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100134 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-100330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1269 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0834 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO/SRN NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445... VALID 100134Z - 100330Z THREAT FOR SVR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF WW 445. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 50S OVER THE FRONT RANGE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDING INDICATES THAT SUFFICIENT MUCINH /50-100 J/KG/ NOW EXISTS THAT FURTHER SVR THREAT OVER THE FRONT RANGE APPEARS LIMITED. CONVECTION THAT AIDED IN RAIN COOLED AIR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION WAS GRADUALLY STABILIZING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW THROUGH 03-04Z WHERE CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO GREATER INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG/ OVER NERN CO/SRN NEB PANHANDLE AS EVIDENT BY 00Z LBF SOUNDING. ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 41420239 39180187 39120486 41010528 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 10 02:17:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 21:17:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506100228.j5A2SRLA023763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100227 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100227 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-100400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB / WRN KS / WRN OK / THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS / TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 442...443... VALID 100227Z - 100400Z TORNADO / SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF WW 442...AND MOST OF THE SRN 2/3 OF WW 443. SRN PORTIONS OF WW 442 AND NRN PORTIONS OF WW 443 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY A NEW TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY. SEVERAL SEVERE -- AND COUPLE OF POTENTIALLY TORNADIC -- SUPERCELLS CONTINUE FROM SWRN KS SSWWD TOWARD LBB...AHEAD OF RETREATING DRYLINE. STRONGEST STORM CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SUPERCELL NOW ACROSS FLOYD / NRN CROSBY COUNTIES IN THE TX SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THIS STORM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY SEWD...AND MAY MOVE INTO DICKENS COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS / ERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR / INSTABILITY EXISTS. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING EWD ACROSS SWRN OK...E OF WW 443. WILL LIKELY REPLACE THESE TWO WATCHES SHORTLY WITH A SINGLE TORNADO WATCH COVERING PARTS OF WRN KS THE ERN TX / OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK AND WRN N TX / THE TX S PLAINS. ..GOSS.. 06/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32780084 32900230 35890160 37830022 37999805 35819826 34029872 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 10 02:31:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 21:31:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506100242.j5A2gaDT029973@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100241 KSZ000-NEZ000-100445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1271 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0941 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN NEB...NCENTRAL/NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 444... VALID 100241Z - 100445Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES OVER WW 444 APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST HOUR. SCENTRAL NEB PORTIONS OF WW 444 WILL BE CLEARED IN THE NEXT WW STATUS MESSAGE. SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD INTO WW 446/NERN KS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER NCENTRAL/NERN KS BEYOND WW 444 EXPIRATION TIME /04Z/. THUS A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BEFORE THEN THAT WILL REPLACE WW 444 AND MAY ALSO REPLACE WW 446. SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS STRONG LIFT INTO E-W ORIENTED CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG INFLOW WITH 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED ISOLATED SVR THREAT WITH CONVECTION OVER NCENTRAL KS AS IT MOVES GRADUALLY INTO NERN KS. FARTHER NORTH...GIVEN OUTFLOW MOVING EAST OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SERN NEB...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHING OVER THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39419903 39969824 40259695 40049573 39689526 39169503 38719800 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 11 20:43:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 15:43:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506112054.j5BKsNuP018372@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112038 WIZ000-MIZ000-112215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE WI/UPPER PENINSULA OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112038Z - 112215Z ...WATCH WILL BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 459 SHORTLY... AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AS FULL SUN HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS EXTENDING SE OF DULUTH TO THE NORTHWEST OF MADISON CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KT PER AREA VWP DATA WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. ..TAYLOR.. 06/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX... 46368998 46189057 44118938 43038851 42948783 43918754 45498738 46638806 46778852  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 11 21:54:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 16:54:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506112205.j5BM5OaV014774@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112204 WIZ000-MNZ000-112330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW WI/ERN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459... VALID 112204Z - 112330Z ...ISOLD SHORT TERM THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT BUT OVERALL THREAT SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING WITHIN WW 459 AND IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY... SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SW OF FARGO THROUGH CNTRL MN/NRN WI FROM NEAR AXN TO RPD. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MAJORITY OF SVR STORMS NOW MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 461...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE CELLS SW OF DULUTH. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF LOW LEVEL MESOS/TORNADOES...BUT AS THEY MOVE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND INTERACT WITH COOL STABLE LAKE BREEZE INVOF SUPERIOR...THEY WILL WEAKEN. FARTHER SOUTH OVER SRN WI...WHILE ISOLD SVR WX IS POSSIBLE...THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NRN MN AND THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A LONG TERM SVR THREAT. THEREFORE...WW 459 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 00Z. ..TAYLOR.. 06/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... 45769082 45809337 46439339 46689218 46669107 46099026 45889029 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 11 22:17:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 17:17:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506112229.j5BMTArS024337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112228 TXZ000-120030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112228Z - 120030Z WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AS STORMS MAY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND SLOW TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY NEAR/EAST OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...WHERE HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING HAVE OVERCOME INHIBITION. INFLUENCE OF FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF JET SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS...AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS FROM WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MID/UPPER FLOW FIELDS APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH AT LEAST LATE EVENING...BUT STRONG TURNING FROM LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO UPPER WESTERLIES IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. IN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG...VERY LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF FORT STOCKTON. ..KERR.. 06/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... 29360290 30220353 31270288 31830269 31580194 30610178 30000193 29830215 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 11 22:43:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 17:43:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506112254.j5BMsqrZ002239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112254 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-120100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW..N CNTRL OK AND PARTS OF SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112254Z - 120100Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...IS COMING FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ZONE OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT APPEARS TO EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS JUST SOUTH OF GAGE OK INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF PONCA CITY...WHERE INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASING FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS CLUSTER BEGINS TO EXPAND...EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RISK OF DOWNBURSTS AND FORMATION OF BROADER SCALE OUTFLOWS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..KERR.. 06/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37069931 37419804 37639692 37539602 36549598 36089689 35899777 35569879 35459951 35750001 36689997 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 11 23:24:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 18:24:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506112335.j5BNZUCe016612@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112334 MIZ000-WIZ000-120100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1301 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER PENINSULA OF MI/NERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461... VALID 112334Z - 120100Z ...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AHEAD OF SEVERE SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS UPPER PENINSULA AND NERN WI... SQUALL LINE NORTHWEST OF GREEN BAY WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE CNTRL UPPER PENINSULA...AND THE REMAINDER OF NERN WI WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT PER GREEN BAY VWP DATA HAS SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING STRUCTURES WITHIN LINE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...WHICH HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE. RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GUSTS TO 54 KT AT CLINTONVILLE /CLI/ SO THERE IS CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR 50-60 MPH GUSTS AHEAD OF STRONGEST STORMS. LAKE BREEZE MOVING W/NW FROM GREEN BAY MAY INTERFERE WITH SRN STORM...BUT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LINE MAY REMAIN INTACT BEFORE REACHING THE UP OF MICHIGAN. ..TAYLOR.. 06/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB... 44688719 44058792 44258883 45298888 46608988 46838940 46878854 46618784 46128707 45398685 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 11 23:42:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 18:42:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506112354.j5BNs7KV022720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112352 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-120145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...TX PNHDL...WRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 460...462... VALID 112352Z - 120145Z CONTINUE WWS. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...IS BECOMING CLUSTERED NEAR AMARILLO. THIS APPEARS TO BE NEAR INTERSECTION OF DRY LINE AND REMNANT SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALREADY APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT...WITH EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS LIKELY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED TORNADO/LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH 01-02Z...BEFORE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT. SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF EVOLVING CLUSTER OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WHILE ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS. ..KERR.. 06/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 33530209 34340191 34910196 35040269 36120241 36400121 36819997 37509802 37639663 36259723 35589900 34800046 34060085 33310176  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 01:17:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 20:17:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506120128.j5C1SlV3022589@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120127 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-120200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0827 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/TX PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 460... VALID 120127Z - 120200Z PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS DEVELOPING EAST OF WW 460...AND PLANS ARE TO ALLOW MUCH OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW TO EXPIRE. WW MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY ACROSS THE AMARILLO VICINITY. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE NEAR THE AMARILLO AREA. SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS NOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF AMARILLO...BUT VIGOROUS CONVECTION FORMING ABOVE/NORTH OF TRAILING SURFACE COLD POOL MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...BEFORE DIMINISHING/SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ..KERR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 33530209 34340191 34910196 35150241 35790203 36400121 36819997 37509802 37639663 36259723 35589900 34800046 34060085 33310176 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 03:01:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 22:01:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506120312.j5C3CZXt024083@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120311 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-120415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...TX PNHDL...WRN OK...SRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 462... VALID 120311Z - 120415Z NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 04Z...PRIMARILY FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...POSSIBLY PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS VERY STRONG MID/UPPER JET CONTINUES TO DIG INTO BASE OF BROADER SCALE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH OVERNIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE ON INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION... PIVOTING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THUS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...AS HEAVIER RAIN CORES BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNSATURATED MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR DOWNBURST AND EASTWARD SURGING OUTFLOW INTO/ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING. OTHER VIGOROUS STORMS NOW APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST ABOVE SURFACE COLD POOL NEAR THE AMARILLO AREA A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO FORM ON STALLING SYNOPTIC EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ROCKIES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL APPEARS PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..KERR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 35880516 36300445 36370255 36660128 36770073 37239979 37599924 37669798 36979751 36309794 35389856 34279993 34120046 34150165 34480158 34750168 34700229 34680271 35030294 35460241 35960232 35860312 35630438 35660522 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 09:53:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 04:53:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506121004.j5CA4RRY006247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121003 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-121230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NM....PANHANDLES OF TX/OK...EXTREME NWRN OK AND SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121003Z - 121230Z ACARS/WATER VAPOR SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO EJECT NEWD FROM SRN CO/CNTRL NM TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE REFLECTION/COLD FRONT PASSED CLINES CORNERS NM AROUND 08Z AND APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING EWD INTO ECNTRL NM ATTM. RECENT RADAR SHOWS A FEW RETURNS DEVELOPING VCNTY THIS FRONT WEST OF CLOVIS NM. OTHER STORMS...BEING AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KT LLJ...EXTEND EWD INTO THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES...ALONG/N OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/SPREAD EWD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE 00Z RAOBS AND CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED BUOYANCY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MUCAPE VALUES. GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE ASCENT...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT TSTMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM ECNTRL NM NEWD TOWARD EXTREME NWRN OK AND SWRN KS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EWD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY TEND TO TRAIN NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS CURRENTLY WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MID-LEVEL ROTATION WITH THE DEVELOPING STORMS. BUT...LATER THIS MORNING...INCREASING MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS /ALREADY NOTED ON THE TCU PROFILER/ AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION IN THE STRONGER STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO BE A FACTOR...MAINLY LATER THIS MORNING. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED IF TSTMS SHOW SIGNS OF SUSTAINED ORGANIZATION. ..RACY.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 34000429 35250348 37050178 37710056 37339999 36779957 34360057 33640284 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 13:52:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 08:52:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506121404.j5CE48EL005489@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121403 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121403 TXZ000-OKZ000-121500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0903 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/N TX INTO SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121403Z - 121500Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY AS THEY BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED LATER THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 1350Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF INTENSIFYING STORMS BETWEEN ABI AND MWL NWD TO S OF SPS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM NRN MEXICO...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE. 12Z FWD SOUNDING WOULD INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OBSERVED CURRENTLY ON DYESS AFB VWP IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE W. THEREFORE...EXPECT ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL AND INHERENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS N TX INTO SRN OK AS BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMS AND THESE STORMS BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED. SHOULD ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 33250008 34509931 34329758 33499728 32539800 32049848 32009936 32450004 32820021 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 14:58:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 09:58:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506121509.j5CF9dTV001620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121509 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121508 OKZ000-TXZ000-121615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX PNHDL INTO NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121508Z - 121615Z POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS MAY TEND TO INCREASE FROM THE FAR ERN TX PNHDL INTO NWRN OK LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. A COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION EXISTS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TX PNHDL/WRN TX INTO WRN OK. ELEVATED TSTMS WHICH DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY OVER THE TX PNHDL APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING A COLD POOL WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE LINEAR FROM OCHILTREE SWD INTO DONLEY COUNTIES OF THE ERN TX PNHDL. WHILE IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX PNHDL INTO NWRN OK LIKELY REMAINS SOMEWHAT STABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS W-CNTRL/SWRN AND CNTRL OK INDICATE A NWWD SURGE IN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS WITH AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM N OF CDS TO N OF HBR TO NEAR PNC. AS ONGOING LINE OF STORMS ENCOUNTERS NWRN EDGE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN INTO N-CNTRL OK. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... 35180057 35910049 36579938 36739792 36569721 35989723 35509805 35239885 34790003 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 16:24:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 11:24:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506121636.j5CGa90i004194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121635 OKZ000-TXZ000-121800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PNHDL/TX S PLAINS/LOW ROLLING PLAINS/ NRN PERMIAN BASIN NEWD INTO SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121635Z - 121800Z SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO ACT ON UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PER OBSERVED DEEPENING CONVECTION FROM ARMSTRONG COUNTY SSWWD TO HALE COUNTY. 15Z REESE AFB SOUNDING INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP MOIST LAYER BENEATH A CAP IN THE 750-700 MB LAYER. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM...AIR MASS IS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. ACCOMPANYING REESE HODOGRAPH EXHIBITED VEERING/BACKING PATTERN BELOW 700 MB AND THEN PRONOUNCED BACKING ABOVE 500 MB. NONETHELESS...ENOUGH VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND SUSTAINED LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD OUT OF ERN NM SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON FROM THE ERN CAPROCK/LOW ROLLING PLAINS NEWD INTO SWRN OK AND NWRN TX. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. GIVEN MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /ESPECIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY - WARM FRONT COMPOSITE/ AND MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 33550207 34560169 35090133 35200038 35349987 35099937 34149947 32750067 32090170 32930224 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 17:15:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 12:15:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506121726.j5CHQHKr026831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121725 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121725 TNZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-INZ000-121930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN/SRN OH/CNTRL AND ERN KY/MIDDLE AND ERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121725Z - 121930Z ...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH ISOLD TORNADOES IS INCREASING AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH... SFC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS CENTERED JUST SW OF CKV PER LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS/VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ALREADY IN PLACE...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT OBSERVED ON AREA VWP DATA. SHARPLY CURVED HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO SR HELICITY VALUES ABOVE 200 M2/S2. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ATTM ACROSS CNTRL KY INTO THE SRN OH VALLEY WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS SRN IN/OH. SFC TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S...WITHIN A SEMI-TROPICAL AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN AND THEREFORE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. ..TAYLOR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN... 39408513 38658637 35808651 35038575 34918487 35318374 35778318 36168258 37308232 38488258 39338333 39438413 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 17:28:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 12:28:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506121739.j5CHdm23001052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121738 OKZ000-KSZ000-121845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1310 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN OK INTO SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121738Z - 121845Z TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL OK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN OK AND SERN KS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS OF 1724Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS FROM MAJOR INTO NOBLE COUNTIES OF N-CNTRL OK. INSPECTION OF VANCE AFB REFLECTIVITY DATA SUGGESTS THAT STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH LARGER TSTM COMPLEX CURRENTLY FROM THE NERN TX PNHDL INTO CNTRL KS. INFLUX OF A WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INTO THESE STORMS COUPLED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH CURRENT LAMONT OK PROFILER INDICATES INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE FRESH WITH A NOTABLE SEWD MOTION. SHOULD THIS BOUNDARY BECOME MORE STATIONARY AND MODIFY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ANY STORMS INTERACTING WITH THIS FEATURE WOULD POSE A HIGHER RISK OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36379784 37289748 37899681 37919579 37479532 36759523 36279573 35979620 35849665 35959766 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 17:44:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 12:44:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506121755.j5CHtpBL008295@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121754 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-121930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA/NWRN IL AND NERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121754Z - 121930Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS. NO WW IS ANTICIPATED. TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM MONROE/APPANOOSE COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL IA SWD INTO SCHUYLER COUNTY IN NERN MO WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW BOUNDARY-LAYER TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE ALONG/S OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NEAR IRK NEWD INTO SWRN WI /NEAR LNR/. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND NO WW IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40869318 41749257 42639139 42469046 41898977 40889028 39919130 39589201 39399277 39629327 40299350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 18:34:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 13:34:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506121845.j5CIjmuE029439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121843 KSZ000-COZ000-122015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121843Z - 122015Z POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY BRIEF TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO WRN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 1830Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF TSTMS FROM ADAMS/ARAPAHOE COUNTIES SSEWD INTO LINCOLN COUNTY IN ERN CO. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT EMERGING FROM THE FRONT RANGE AND WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. DIABATIC HEATING HAS ALLOWED DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER ERN CO TO BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. WHILE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS SERN CO...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY ALONG/E OF TROUGH AXIS OVER E-CNTRL INTO NERN CO. GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMBIENT VORTICITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38160393 39430450 40410476 40770412 40880323 40590268 40060217 39400193 38570192 37820224 37500264 37500306 37500328 37580366 37810382 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 19:51:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 14:51:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122003.j5CK3GcQ031713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122002 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-122100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1313 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL/SWRN MO INTO NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122002Z - 122100Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP E/SE OF WW 465 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 1947Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS FROM LYON AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES IN E-CNTRL/SERN KS SWWD INTO OSAGE...KAY AND NOBLE COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL OK. SERN KS STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG/ CURRENTLY EXIST OVER ERN OK INTO FAR SERN KS...TO THE S OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR EMP ESEWD INTO W-CNTRL MO APPROXIMATELY 40S SZL. VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NWRN QUARTER OF MO IS COMPARABLY MORE STABLE...THOUGH CUMULUS FIELD IS INCREASING IN A NARROW N-S AXIS FROM SW OF OJC TO E OF FNB. EXTRAPOLATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE MOVEMENT SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP E/SE OF WW 465 PRIOR TO 21Z. APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED AND ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE FROM AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SWD ACROSS FAR SWRN MO INTO NERN OK WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA... 38809504 39009486 39029408 38589333 37779334 36759376 36069463 35649566 35689637 36039647 36539577 37009502 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 20:19:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 15:19:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122031.j5CKVBpu011180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122029 OKZ000-TXZ000-122200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS INTO NWRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 464... VALID 122029Z - 122200Z THROUGH 22-23Z...APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM THE ERN S PLAINS OF TX INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS ALONG AND W OF U.S. 83. AS OF 2025Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE FROM BRISCOE SWD THROUGH CROSBY COUNTIES IN W TX WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 3000 J/KG. DESPITE A PERSISTENT VEERING TO BACKING WIND PATTERN BELOW 2 KM AGL ON THE JAYTON PROFILER...FLOW IN THE 4-7 KM AGL LAYER HAS STEADILY INCREASED WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE. FARTHER TO THE N...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN AND W-CNTRL OK WHICH IN TURN IS REINFORCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING SWD THROUGH I-40 CORRIDOR OF WRN OK/ERN TX PNHDL. THROUGH 22-23Z...APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE FROM E OF LBB INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WELL REMOVED FROM MCS COLD POOL. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 35150173 36369815 33869820 32650175 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 20:38:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 15:38:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122049.j5CKndQ9020161@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122047 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO/SW KS/NRN TX PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122047Z - 122215Z THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LAMAR TO NORTH OF DALHART WHICH HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND PROFILES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THIS REGION...SO THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE STORM MODES. BUBBLE HIGH OVER SW KS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD POOL IS STABILIZING THE REGION. HOWEVER STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING TROUGH COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG/SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE CO. MAIN THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO GIVEN FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SMALL AREA AFFECTED...AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS TO THE EAST. ..TAYLOR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 35240202 36130295 38280298 38280110 36900061 35630042 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 22:31:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 17:31:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122242.j5CMgwX1028400@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122241 OKZ000-TXZ000-130045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OK...NW/N CNTRL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 464...465... VALID 122241Z - 130045Z CONTINUE WWS. ADDITIONAL WWS MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF 464 AND 465 WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SURGE INTO THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FRONT IS STALLING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 44...JUST AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW SHIFTING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WITH 30 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEXT FEW HOURS...EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL. AS HEAVY RAIN CORE GROWS...INCREASING EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT DEEPENING EASTWARD SURGING COLD POOL ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. WAVE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST AHEAD OF EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE BEST FOCUS/SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. OTHER INTENSE STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG DRY LINE...JUST AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF LUBBOCK INTO THE CHILDRESS AREA. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT LIKELY WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH DAMAGING WINDS INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...POSSIBLY MERGING WITH OKLAHOMA STORM CLUSTER...FORMING MORE EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE BY 02-03Z. ..KERR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32480095 33210094 33950067 34270019 34669953 35099874 35789806 35979772 36079685 35939614 35539603 34939655 34639697 33839810 33259841 33189889 32249956 31950026 32140078 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 22:59:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 17:59:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122310.j5CNAtLg005553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122309 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-130045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 466... VALID 122309Z - 130045Z LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND PROFILER DATA INDICATE MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM JUST SW OF CVS NWWD TO NEAR COS WITH ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE MOVING OVER THE CNTRL CO MTNS. INITIALLY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED ACROSS SE CO IN ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT LATEST RADAR SHOW CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO A LINE IN SW KS. CHARACTER OF CLOUDS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRONG INHIBITION TO SFC BASED PARCELS EAST OF THE ONGOING LINE OF STORMS. WHILE STORMS MAY BE MAINTAINED INTO PORTIONS OF WCNTRL KS VIS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO BECOME ELEVATED. REGARDING AREAS IN ERN CO WITHIN WW 466...SVR THREAT IS DIMINISHING. STORMS HAVE ALMOST EXITED NE CO...AND THE STORMS DEVELOPING FROM ITR TO LAA ARE FORMING IN THE COOLER OUTFLOW AIR. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT...AND IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO CANCEL WW 466 PRIOR TO 02Z. ..TAYLOR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...PUB... 37150219 38150323 39560258 39320042 38629952 37349950 36999946 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 23:03:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 18:03:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122314.j5CNESX9006809@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122313 MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/WRN MO AND SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467... VALID 122313Z - 130115Z CONTINUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467. DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...ONGOING SQUALL LINE IS OCCURRING ON LEADING EDGE OF 30 KT MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO FORWARD PROPAGATION OF SQUALL LINE...AND ENHANCING SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND PEAK WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE WITH LINE THROUGH AT LEAST 01-02Z...AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE SPRINGFIELD/COLUMBIA/KIRKSVILLE MO AREAS...AND AREAS OF IOWA SOUTH OF DES MOINES. DUE TO SOMEWHAT MARGINAL NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT...AND LIKELIHOOD OF WEAKENING TRENDS AFTER 02-03Z...NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA. TRENDS WITH EVOLVING SQUALL LINE OVER OKLAHOMA/TEXAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATER THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA... 37299481 38439422 39749411 40259451 41299330 40439164 39079161 37899194 37219274 36799324 36379382 36159533 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 23:03:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 18:03:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122314.j5CNEY9k006838@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122309 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-130045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 466... VALID 122309Z - 130045Z LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND PROFILER DATA INDICATE MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM JUST SW OF CVS NWWD TO NEAR COS WITH ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE MOVING OVER THE CNTRL CO MTNS. INITIALLY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED ACROSS SE CO IN ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT LATEST RADAR SHOW CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO A LINE IN SW KS. CHARACTER OF CLOUDS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRONG INHIBITION TO SFC BASED PARCELS EAST OF THE ONGOING LINE OF STORMS. WHILE STORMS MAY BE MAINTAINED INTO PORTIONS OF WCNTRL KS VIS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO BECOME ELEVATED. REGARDING AREAS IN ERN CO WITHIN WW 466...SVR THREAT IS DIMINISHING. STORMS HAVE ALMOST EXITED NE CO...AND THE STORMS DEVELOPING FROM ITR TO LAA ARE FORMING IN THE COOLER OUTFLOW AIR. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT...AND IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO CANCEL WW 466 PRIOR TO 02Z. ..TAYLOR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...PUB... 37150219 38150323 39560258 39320042 38629952 37349950 36999946  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 23:06:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 18:06:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122317.j5CNHeuJ007466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122313 MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/WRN MO AND SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467... VALID 122313Z - 130115Z CONTINUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467. DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...ONGOING SQUALL LINE IS OCCURRING ON LEADING EDGE OF 30 KT MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO FORWARD PROPAGATION OF SQUALL LINE...AND ENHANCING SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND PEAK WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE WITH LINE THROUGH AT LEAST 01-02Z...AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE SPRINGFIELD/COLUMBIA/KIRKSVILLE MO AREAS...AND AREAS OF IOWA SOUTH OF DES MOINES. DUE TO SOMEWHAT MARGINAL NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT...AND LIKELIHOOD OF WEAKENING TRENDS AFTER 02-03Z...NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA. TRENDS WITH EVOLVING SQUALL LINE OVER OKLAHOMA/TEXAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATER THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA... 37299481 38439422 39749411 40259451 41299330 40439164 39079161 37899194 37219274 36799324 36379382 36159533  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 23:48:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 18:48:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122359.j5CNxIhu021883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122358 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122358 KYZ000-INZ000-130130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KY/SRN IN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 468... VALID 122358Z - 130130Z ...THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER AND EAST OF LOUISVILLE. MAIN THREAT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE ACROSS SRN IN... MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW NORTH OF THE OH RIVER. SFC OBS INDICATE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST AT BMG WITH HIGHEST SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS CNTRL IND/SW OH. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. AIRMASS WILL BE STABILIZING NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR STILL REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES...AND LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY FROM INDIANAPOLIS SHOWS SEVERAL STRONG LINES OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL ROTATION SIGNATURES. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED EARLIER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAIN THREAT CONTINUES MAINLY EAST OF A BMG/SDF LINE. ..TAYLOR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND... 39828637 38998618 37918506 38148449 39638506 40168531 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 01:06:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 20:06:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506130117.j5D1HMoQ015697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130116 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130116 OKZ000-130315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1320 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OKLAHOMA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 464...469... VALID 130116Z - 130315Z CONTINUE WWS TIL RESPECTIVE EXPIRATIONS. ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ACROSS/WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA...MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EAST OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS JUST NOW PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND IS ONLY PROGGED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY 06Z. SLOWLY VEERING 30+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR ALONG STALLING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN/CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF FRONT RELATIVE TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND PRODUCING SQUALL LINE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE SOUTH/EAST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA...BUT HEAVY RAIN/HAIL MAY BECOME PRIMARY THREAT SHORTLY. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34939947 35759945 36149826 36099755 36969665 36619472 35599456 34499628 34329756 34329824 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 02:22:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 21:22:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506130233.j5D2Xc5l010627@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130232 TXZ000-130300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 470... VALID 130232Z - 130300Z WW LIKELY WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME ISOLATED AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS AWAY FROM DRY LINE. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST/NORTH OF ABILENE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS... WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB... 33060039 33380001 33189923 32579914 32530010 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 04:19:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 23:19:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506130430.j5D4Uc27020181@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130429 KSZ000-OKZ000-130630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130429Z - 130630Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. STRONG JET CONTINUES TO DIG INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER REGION...WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREADING EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PERSISTENT VIGOROUS CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING EAST OF DODGE CITY TOWARD THE WICHITA AREA APPEARS TO BE ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS COOLING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO COOLING/ STABILIZATION OF SUPPORTING INFLOW SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND IS ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION IN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT...AND MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF NEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. EARLY EVENING CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS. IN ITS WAKE...LATEST MODELS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW OF RICHER MOISTURE INTO VICINITY OF SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME...BUT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS... ACROSS THE WICHITA/EMPORIA/CHANUTE AREAS. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37250020 38249875 38349784 38979619 38839526 37539490 36719612 36899732 37009931 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 04:22:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 23:22:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506130433.j5D4Xxct021248@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130433 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130433 KSZ000-OKZ000-130630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130433Z - 130630Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. STRONG JET CONTINUES TO DIG INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER REGION...WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREADING EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PERSISTENT VIGOROUS CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING EAST OF DODGE CITY TOWARD THE WICHITA AREA APPEARS TO BE ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS COOLING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO COOLING/ STABILIZATION OF SUPPORTING INFLOW SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND IS ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION IN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT...AND MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF NEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. EARLY EVENING CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS. IN ITS WAKE...LATEST MODELS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW OF RICHER MOISTURE INTO VICINITY OF SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME...BUT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS... ACROSS THE WICHITA/EMPORIA/CHANUTE AREAS. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37250020 38249875 38349784 38979619 38839526 37539490 36719612 36899732 37009931 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 04:26:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 23:26:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506130437.j5D4bMSk021883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130429 KSZ000-OKZ000-130630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130429Z - 130630Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. STRONG JET CONTINUES TO DIG INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER REGION...WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREADING EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PERSISTENT VIGOROUS CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING EAST OF DODGE CITY TOWARD THE WICHITA AREA APPEARS TO BE ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS COOLING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO COOLING/ STABILIZATION OF SUPPORTING INFLOW SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND IS ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION IN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT...AND MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF NEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. EARLY EVENING CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS. IN ITS WAKE...LATEST MODELS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW OF RICHER MOISTURE INTO VICINITY OF SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME...BUT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS... ACROSS THE WICHITA/EMPORIA/CHANUTE AREAS. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37250020 38249875 38349784 38979619 38839526 37539490 36719612 36899732 37009931  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 04:28:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 23:28:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506130439.j5D4dEJC023222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130433 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130433 KSZ000-OKZ000-130630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130433Z - 130630Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. STRONG JET CONTINUES TO DIG INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER REGION...WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREADING EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PERSISTENT VIGOROUS CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING EAST OF DODGE CITY TOWARD THE WICHITA AREA APPEARS TO BE ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS COOLING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO COOLING/ STABILIZATION OF SUPPORTING INFLOW SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND IS ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION IN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT...AND MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF NEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. EARLY EVENING CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS. IN ITS WAKE...LATEST MODELS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW OF RICHER MOISTURE INTO VICINITY OF SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME...BUT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS... ACROSS THE WICHITA/EMPORIA/CHANUTE AREAS. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37250020 38249875 38349784 38979619 38839526 37539490 36719612 36899732 37009931  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 06:42:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 01:42:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506130653.j5D6rSCk003400@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130652 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130652 MOZ000-130815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1323 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL-SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130652Z - 130815Z BOW ECHO IS MOVING ENEWD THROUGH SWRN MO AT 40 KTS AND HAS PRODUCED 80 MPH WINDS VCNTY KSGF SINCE 0630Z. APEX OF THIS BOW APPEARS TO BE LINKED UP WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOVED SWD TO AROUND KVIH-KSGF. THIS MAY CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL NEWD INTO SCNTRL MO THROUGH 09Z. BUT...THERMODYNAMIC DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THAT BUOYANCY DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE MS RVR AND THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT. IF STORMS DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING...A WW MIGHT BE REQUIRED. ATTM...THOUGH...ONE IS NOT EXPECTED. ..RACY.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 36539302 38119306 38569078 37189051 36599117 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 09:04:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 04:04:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506130915.j5D9Fbvo004572@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130913 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130913 ILZ000-WIZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-131115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1324 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0413 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SERN MN...SRN WI...MUCH OF IL AND NERN/ECNTRL MO CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 130913Z - 131115Z THE 13Z DAY ONE OUTLOOK UPDATE /WHICH WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11Z WITH ATTENDANT PWO/ WILL INCLUDE A MODERATE RISK BASED ON AFTERNOON TORNADO/EVENING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IA...SERN MN...SRN WI...MUCH OF IL AND NERN/ECNTRL MO. TORNADO RISKS: SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN THE 65-70F DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY TODAY. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF BUOYANCY AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY. BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...LOW LCL/S AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. DAMAGING WIND RISKS: A SECONDARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS NERN/ECNTRL MO INTO IL DURING THE EVENING. H5 WIND MAX AOA 65 KTS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID MO VLY UPPER LOW. AS A RESULT...TSTM CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP SWWD FROM THE AFTERNOON UPPER MS VLY CONVECTION IS APT TO DEVELOP INTO BOW ECHOES AND RAPIDLY MOVE ENEWD ACROSS MUCH OF IL WITH POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS AOA 65 KTS. ..RACY.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX... 43789324 44309222 44078998 43398906 41308798 39938761 38938809 38558942 38489076 40049257 40789307 42099328 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 15:51:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 10:51:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506131602.j5DG2Dh0028304@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131601 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131601 WIZ000-131800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1325 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131601Z - 131800Z DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS WI COULD HAVE A HAIL AND/OR MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS IN SRN AND CNTRL WI WHICH IS LOCALLY ENHANCING INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAPPING INVERSION NEARLY GONE ACROSS SRN AND CNTR WI. IN ADDITION...A VORTICITY LOBE IS ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER ERN IA AND NRN IL. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO WI...LIFT WILL INCREASE AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. THE PROFILER IN SW WI CURRENTLY SHOWS 25 KT AT 6 KM AND THIS MAY INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. HAIL AND A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43688754 42858785 42618868 42758951 43469052 44359156 45089184 45719050 45338911 44588795 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 16:23:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 11:23:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506131634.j5DGYIIt017726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131633 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131633 MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-131830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1326 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD/NRN NEB/SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131633Z - 131830Z HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS DEVELOP ACROSS SERN SD AND NRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW IN NRN NEB WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ECNTRL NEB. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS SERN SD INTO SW MN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IS HELPING NEW SFC-BASED CELLS TO INITIATE IN SERN SD. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING BENEATH AN UPPER-LOW WITH A DRY SLOT PUNCHING NWWD INTO SE SD AROUND THE UPPER-LOW. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY SLOT WITH 500 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -16 TO -18C. THIS IS CREATING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 42810033 43549995 44569811 44799633 44529413 43639402 43619591 43349753 42449917 42330012 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 17:31:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 12:31:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506131742.j5DHgN5G030884@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131741 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-131945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1327 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN AND ERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131741Z - 131945Z AS STORMS INITIATE AND DEVELOP ACROSS SE MO...ERN AND SRN IL...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT MAY EXPAND EWD INTO WRN KY AND FAR WRN IND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS SRN AND ERN IL WHERE 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SERN MO EXTENDING NWD INTO NERN IL. STORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN SE MO AND FROM ROCKFORD IL EXTENDING SSEWD TO NEAR JOLIET. ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR ERN IL AND SE MO...THE CELLS ARE INITIATING IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WITH HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39658749 37828802 36718893 36819025 37409029 39148973 41098973 41888933 42118882 41928787 41028752 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 20:39:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 15:39:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506132051.j5DKpEtf027665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132049 INZ000-ILZ000-132215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1331 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132049Z - 132215Z ...WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY... STRONG/SVR TSTMS FROM COU TO UIN ARE MOVING INTO WCNTRL IL. LACK OF CUMULUS NOTED OVER ECNTRL IL SUGGESTS THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT IS MINIMAL ATTM...BUT AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 2000 J PER KG. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...AND CELLS MOVING OUT OF MO WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED OR EVEN STRENGTHEN. SMALL WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED NORTH OF SEVERE WATCH 472...WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. ..TAYLOR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 40508738 39549062 39879137 40839104 40939034 41268921 41278804 41008752 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 22:05:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 17:05:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506132216.j5DMGXJG017691@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132215 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-140015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO INTO CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...476... VALID 132215Z - 140015Z CONTINUE WWS. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED FROM THE CHICAGO AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...PERHAPS PARTS OF WESTERN INDIANA...WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA. THIS IS WHERE STEEPEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT... ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW EAST OF MID MISSOURI VALLEY CLOSED LOW...IS FORCING MOIST PARCELS TO LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. INHIBITION APPEARS STRONGER ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44/64...WITH STRONGER FORCING LIKELY TO SHIFT ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS MO/SPRINFIELD IL AREAS SHORTLY...INTO DECATUR/MATTOON/ CHAMPAIGN VICINITIES BY 01-03Z. EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD FORM A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT SURGES INTO MOIST/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY WITH STRONGER STORMS IN NEAR TERM...AND POTENTIAL FOR BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND EVENT SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE NORTHEAST OF ST. LOUIS INTO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 39059092 39909054 40499004 40838818 40538734 39708695 38908741 38408833 38438945 38409029 38419092 38629115 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 22:30:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 17:30:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506132242.j5DMg1cq030889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132241 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-140045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1333 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132241Z - 140045Z CONTINUE TORNADO WW 473 AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW 477. BAND OF FORCING ON SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY APPEARS FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 4000 J/KG. MODERATE CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES...NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO FAVOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS/SURGING OUTFLOWS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH 00-02Z. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 33500005 34509820 35369686 36209533 36899403 36469349 35849393 34639520 33319794 32939934 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 22:31:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 17:31:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506132242.j5DMgNN6031015@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132215 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-140015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO INTO CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...476... VALID 132215Z - 140015Z CONTINUE WWS. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED FROM THE CHICAGO AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...PERHAPS PARTS OF WESTERN INDIANA...WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA. THIS IS WHERE STEEPEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT... ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW EAST OF MID MISSOURI VALLEY CLOSED LOW...IS FORCING MOIST PARCELS TO LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. INHIBITION APPEARS STRONGER ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44/64...WITH STRONGER FORCING LIKELY TO SHIFT ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS MO/SPRINFIELD IL AREAS SHORTLY...INTO DECATUR/MATTOON/ CHAMPAIGN VICINITIES BY 01-03Z. EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD FORM A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT SURGES INTO MOIST/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY WITH STRONGER STORMS IN NEAR TERM...AND POTENTIAL FOR BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND EVENT SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE NORTHEAST OF ST. LOUIS INTO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 39059092 39909054 40499004 40838818 40538734 39708695 38908741 38408833 38438945 38409029 38419092 38629115  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 22:33:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 17:33:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506132244.j5DMiPOT032295@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132242 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-140015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1334 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SRN INTO ECNTRL MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 471... VALID 132242Z - 140015Z ...TORNADO WATCH 471 CONTINUES AND AREA EAST OF WATCH ACROSS SRN MN IS BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AND ADDITIONAL WW... DESPITE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN AN AIRMASS THAT IS ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...UPPER LOW IS STILL UPSTREAM...AND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED. RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH 00Z...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO AROUND 1800 J/KG. BOUNDARY LAYER IS MODESTLY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND LCL HEIGHTS ARE RATHER HIGH. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT...AND SHOULD SFC WINDS BECOME BACKED...AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST. ..TAYLOR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 43229677 44449784 46079669 46079430 45629294 44869270 44159287 43629378 43399540 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 22:51:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 17:51:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506132303.j5DN322b007948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132241 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-140045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1333 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132241Z - 140045Z CONTINUE TORNADO WW 473 AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW 477. BAND OF FORCING ON SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY APPEARS FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 4000 J/KG. MODERATE CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES...NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO FAVOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS/SURGING OUTFLOWS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH 00-02Z. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 33500005 34509820 35369686 36209533 36899403 36469349 35849393 34639520 33319794 32939934  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 22:52:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 17:52:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506132304.j5DN49oS008901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132242 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-140015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1334 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SRN INTO ECNTRL MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 471... VALID 132242Z - 140015Z ...TORNADO WATCH 471 CONTINUES AND AREA EAST OF WATCH ACROSS SRN MN IS BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AND ADDITIONAL WW... DESPITE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN AN AIRMASS THAT IS ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...UPPER LOW IS STILL UPSTREAM...AND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED. RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH 00Z...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO AROUND 1800 J/KG. BOUNDARY LAYER IS MODESTLY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND LCL HEIGHTS ARE RATHER HIGH. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT...AND SHOULD SFC WINDS BECOME BACKED...AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST. ..TAYLOR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 43229677 44449784 46079669 46079430 45629294 44869270 44159287 43629378 43399540  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 23:11:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 18:11:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506132322.j5DNMh7O016892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132321 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-140045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1335 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS/NW MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 475... VALID 132321Z - 140045Z ...SEVERE THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHING AND WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS NRN MO HAS NOT DEVELOPED INTO DEEPER CONVECTION. IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN NRN SECTIONS OF WW. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 80 KT JET AT AROUND 300 MB EXTENDING FROM DES MOINES TO KANSAS CITY. THIS PLACES MUCH OF AREA SOUTH OF THE MAIN JET AXIS. SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER ERN NEB/NW IA AND MOVING NORTHEAST...THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY FROM NW MO. IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP...SO PORTIONS OF WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..TAYLOR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... 39959272 39619502 40479501 40599237 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 00:09:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 19:09:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506140020.j5E0KDnA010500@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140018 INZ000-ILZ000-140215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL INTO NR/CNTRL INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476...479... VALID 140018Z - 140215Z CONTINUE WWS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL JET IS STILL NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 30 KT IN ANTICYCLONIC ARC ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND THREAT NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CHAMPAIGN/MATTOON AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... POSSIBLY THROUGH THE LAFAYETTE IND AREA AS EARLY AS 02-03Z. ..KERR.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... 40598908 40668894 41158796 41578634 41278532 40098553 39568686 39218804 38778891 38418993 39418923 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 00:25:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 19:25:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506140036.j5E0aSYk016853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140035 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-140230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SRN INTO E CNTRL MO...NW AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 473... VALID 140035Z - 140230Z DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS IN WAKE OF SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA. THIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND IS FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY BAND OF FORCING ON SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF MID MISSOURI VALLEY CLOSED LOW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY 03Z...BUT WILL PERSIST IN SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING BAND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. AFTER 04Z...STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT. ..KERR.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 35749574 36549489 37249391 38009225 38319137 37989061 37389025 36669057 36159207 35899295 34979399 34649506 35189596 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 00:33:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 19:33:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506140044.j5E0iUQm020585@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140042 IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-140215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1338 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 474... VALID 140042Z - 140215Z MAIN AREA OF STORMS NOW EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL IA FROM NEAR MCW TO DSM TO WEST OF LWD. IT APPEARS MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE FROM HAIL AND STRONG WINDS GIVEN STORM STRUCTURES OBSERVED FROM DES MOINES RADAR. CLARION IA IN WRIGHT CO RECENTLY GUSTED TO 41 KT...AND THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE. WIND DATA FROM THE SLATER IA PROFILER AND VWP DATA FROM DES MOINES IN ADDITION TO THE 00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM OMAHA AND DAVENPORT ALL INDICATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH VEERING WINDS. MAIN CONCERN NOW WILL BE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT/BOW ECHO POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY ACROSS NERN IA. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...AND MCS VECTORS WOULD SHIFT SYSTEM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST EVENTUALLY AFFECTING SW INTO CNTRL WI. ANOTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS FOR SRN IA...ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS MOVING NORTH OUT OF MO. STORM MODE IS SUPERCELLULAR...WHICH CARRIES A BIGGER RISK OF LARGE HAIL OR EVEN ISOLD TORNADOES. THESE CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE BUT AS LONG AS THEY REMAIN DISCRETE...THEY WILL POSE A TORNADO THREAT. ..TAYLOR.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX... 40569323 40649450 41519408 43539437 43609228 43299167 42849144 41779178 40919196 40639223 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 00:49:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 19:49:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506140101.j5E116PV026775@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140058 TXZ000-OKZ000-140300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL OK INTO NORTHERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... VALID 140058Z - 140300Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW TIL EXPIRATION. NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WW THIS EVENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ENHANCED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH OF SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW. COUPLED WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING/INCREASING INHIBITION FOR PARCELS BASED IN BOUNDARY LAYER...AND BAND OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH LIFTING AWAY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING BY 02-03Z. STORMS MAY BE SLOWEST TO DIMINISH NEAR/SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS...WHERE THERMAL SURFACE LOW IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ..KERR.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... 34009896 34349792 34569671 34829621 35259564 34669506 33909527 33739667 33439798 33259903 33799931  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 01:38:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 20:38:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506140149.j5E1ndus015839@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140148 WIZ000-MNZ000-140315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1340 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0848 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 478... VALID 140148Z - 140315Z THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE ERN/NRN PORTIONS OF WW 478 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN WI AND THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR EITHER A NEW WW OR REPLACEMENT WW THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS PARTS OF ERN MN. RECENT MPX SOUNDING INDICATES THAT LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION OVER ECENTRAL/SERN MN. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF SWRN/SCENTRAL MN AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED IN THE NEXT STATUS REPORT. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY END BY 02-03Z OVER WCENTRAL/CENTRAL MN AS COLD OUTFLOW AIR WILL UNDERCUT CONVECTION THAT FLARED UP OVER THE REGION SINCE 00Z. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT AS CONVECTION OVER SERN/ECENTRAL MN CONTINUES TO BECOME ORGANIZED IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A MARGINAL SVR HAIL THREAT AS IT MOVES INTO WCENTRAL/NWRN WI IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO INSTABILITY AXIS. THUS A NEW WW OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 03Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43639262 43689129 44459073 45469105 46039193 46449272 46249354 46079471 45929536 45539594 45029586 44949579 45299500 45089403 43649340 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 02:54:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 21:54:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506140305.j5E35qEQ016692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140304 ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-140400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1341 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW AR INTO SRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 473... VALID 140304Z - 140400Z ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MAY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 04Z. LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE PERSISTS NEAR INTERSTATE 44 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND HAS BEEN A FOCUS FOR NEWER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS BAND OF STRONG FORCING ON SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY LIFTS ACROSS THE OZARKS. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. WITH LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING WARM/MOIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/ SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...UNAFFECTED BY PRIOR CONVECTION...ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS EVOLVING EAST OF SPRINGFIELD MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. GIVEN MODERATE FLOW FIELDS...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AS IT SPREADS NEAR/NORTH OF WEST PLAINS INTO THE FARMINGTON/POPLAR BLUFF AREAS BY 06Z. ..KERR.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36529267 37029241 37559168 37999135 37939009 38088897 36758979 36369071 36169180 36169255 36259297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 03:14:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 22:14:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506140325.j5E3PIcI025607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140324 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-140530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1342 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...SRN MI...NW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479... VALID 140324Z - 140530Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...AND WW LIKELY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 04Z. STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ...DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE BY 06-09Z. DESTABILIZATION LIKELY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD POOL IS REDUCING CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. COUPLED WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...FURTHER SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME LIMITED TO ISOLATED LARGE...PERHAPS VERY LOCALIZED/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...ILX... 39828657 40548636 41178650 41708595 41668459 41168385 40508359 39898374 39378438 39158646 38648774 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 03:18:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 22:18:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506140330.j5E3U8Xs027363@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140329 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-140430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1343 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND SRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 474... VALID 140329Z - 140430Z WW 474 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT HOUR OVER ERN IA /WW 474/ AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO STABILIZE. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SVR HAIL MAY PERSIST BEYOND WW EXPIRATION TIME AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES INTO FAR ERN IA AND NEW DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER SWRN WI AND NWRN IL ALONG AXIS OF A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASING OVER THE REGION SOUTH OF UPPER LOW /PER 00Z OMA AND DVN SOUNDINGS/...LAPSE RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN AND ONLY MARGINAL HAIL IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. THUS WW 474 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43618863 43289079 42369186 41649242 41269258 40979246 40979081 41938898 42728780 43548780 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 14:24:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 09:24:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506141435.j5EEZGjf015386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141434 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141434 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-141600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1344 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0934 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OH AND SERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 141434Z - 141600Z THE UPCOMING DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AT 1630Z WILL EXTEND THE MODERATE SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA WWD AND NWD TO INCLUDE NWRN OH AND SERN LOWER MI. DESTABILIZATION INTO THIS REGION WITH DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP-LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GIVEN FORCING FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROJECTED CELL MOTIONS NEWD AT 35-45KT. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41538482 41948478 42558462 43168419 43388364 43278289 42918264 42348280 41568300 40958318 40668334 40348343 40308411 40368479 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 14:32:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 09:32:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506141443.j5EEhHuU021056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141442 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141442 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-141645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1345 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0942 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IND...OH AND FAR NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141442Z - 141645Z A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL IND. THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER MN WITH STRONG ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT MOVES ACROSS WRN IND LATE THIS MORNING...A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS IND INTO WRN OH. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM WRN KY INTO IND WHERE 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY WHICH IS CREATING A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. OTHERWISE...A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE PRESENT WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 38588516 38598598 38978664 39598692 40758657 41528497 41728356 41428294 40658251 39548303 38908387 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 16:47:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 11:47:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506141658.j5EGwvOh031219@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141658 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-141900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1346 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...KY/MIDDLE TN/NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141658Z - 141900Z AS STORMS INITIATE AND EXPAND OVER KY AND TN THIS AFTERNOON...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NE MS TO WRN KY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAKENED CAP AND INCREASING ASCENT DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IS HELPING STORMS TO INITIATE ACROSS WRN KY. AS ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD ACROSS WRN TN AND POSSIBLY INTO NRN MS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES...HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MORE PERSISTENT CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 35008980 35978947 38558580 38598418 37878373 36498503 34468842 34708945 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 18:24:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 13:24:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506141835.j5EIZwqI032216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141834 MIZ000-WIZ000-142030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1347 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MI...ERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141834Z - 142030Z HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS ERN WI AND UPPER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LOW ACROSS ERN MN WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING NWD INTO UPPER MI. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AS ASCENT INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. SFC TEMPS IN THE 70S F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ARE RESULTING IN SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. 500 MB TEMPS BELOW -10C AND MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX... 45948678 45478683 43728760 43328843 43548937 44118986 46128928 46408860 46318737 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 19:38:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 14:38:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506141949.j5EJnh35017433@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141948 TXZ000-NMZ000-142145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1348 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141948Z - 142145Z ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED ACROSS SWRN TX AND PERHAPS FAR SERN NM THROUGH REMAINDER OF DAYLIGHT HOURS. A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ADDED TO THE 20Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER OVERALL RISK IS LIKELY TOO MARGINAL FOR WATCH ISSUANCE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM MORNING MCS OVER NWRN TX HAS CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE SWWD. AT 1930Z...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM 15W HOB TO 30S MAF TO 20S SJT. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SWRN TX HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DURING PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ...FOCUSED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW...IS PROCESSING MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK /LESS THAN 20KT/ AND CONTINUED SWWD PROPAGATION OF BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS...LIMITING CELL LONGEVITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD MIGRATE SWWD TO ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR AROUND 2130Z. ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30169905 29769992 30220258 31280388 32660400 32650311 31730226 31330127 31099965 30599923 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 19:59:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 14:59:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506142010.j5EKAiF8031683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142009 PAZ000-MDZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-142145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1349 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA...ERN OH...WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 480... VALID 142009Z - 142145Z LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN A LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES EWD INTO WRN PA AND WV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED EAST OF WW 480 WITHIN THE HOUR. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WHICH RUNS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EXTENDING FROM KY TO OH. AT MID-LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH PRESENT OVER WRN WI WITH A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT MOVING EWD ACROSS OH AND KY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE LINE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PA AND WV. THE EXIT REGION OF A 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...PROVIDING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... 37598191 38238299 39278236 40988150 41868066 42147972 41827866 41447841 40847836 38138029 37668087 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 22:02:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 17:02:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506142213.j5EMDqsr017665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142212 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-142345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1350 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483... VALID 142212Z - 142345Z SQUALL LINE LIKELY TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW...NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED FARTHER EAST. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE...FROM THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO INITIATION OF LINE...IS NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN LOSS OF UPPER SUPPORT...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF LINE...AND COMMENCEMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING....SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE CREST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH ALONG COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION AS IT ADVANCES DOWN THE LEE SLOPES DURING THE 15/00-02Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX... 36168504 36918454 37138402 37578302 38218232 38648195 39038083 39798046 40488028 41307962 42077922 42777828 42877694 41457694 40137756 38777851 37787949 37138017 36208194 36068304 35758385 35898481 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 22:29:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 17:29:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506142240.j5EMev8f030851@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142240 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-150015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1351 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY AND TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482... VALID 142240Z - 150015Z NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT 00Z...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01-02Z. BULK OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS NOW SHIFTING EAST OF WW AREA INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE/CENTRAL KENTUCKY...IN WAKE OF SQUALL LINE...AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IS WEAK...AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE IN INSTABILITY AXIS NEXT FEW HOURS...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE PIVOTS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE FORCING STRONGEST...ACROSS KENTUCKY ALONG/EAST OF A LOUISVILLE/BOWLING GREEN LINE...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE EXCEEDS 2000 J/KG. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..KERR.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH... 36808720 37478670 38138633 38148536 37598525 36868556 36188659 35648746 35598777 35978811 36338765 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 23:31:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 18:31:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506142342.j5ENgZOx025247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142341 MTZ000-150145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1352 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND W-CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142341Z - 150145Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS WRN/W-CENTRAL MT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL EXTENT OF THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO REQUIRE WATCH ISSUANCE. MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS FAR NRN ID/NWRN MT. EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED 50-60KT 500MB JET HAS REACHED WRN MT...AND WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO WRN/W-CENTRAL MT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S AT LOWER ELEVATION SITES ACROSS SWRN MT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS LIMITED OWING TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KT ON SERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS DESPITE LOW INSTABILITY VALUES. COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL EXISTS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG VIL CORES. ALSO...35-40F SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXIST FROM THE ERN SLOPES OF THE WRN MT MOUNTAINS EWD INTO W-CENTRAL MT. EVAPORATIVELY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AS WELL AS RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS CONVECTION TRACKS ENEWD AT 40KT. ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO... 45111188 45391267 46661355 47311393 47711397 47891355 48091300 48351154 48291066 47840989 46670926 45810926 45520964 45301097 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 16:03:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 11:03:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506151614.j5FGEPOr000451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151613 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151613 OKZ000-151815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1353 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151613Z - 151815Z A HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN OK. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL OK WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F. SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING JUST UPSTREAM OF THE MOIST AXIS ALONG A BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHICH SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL OK BY MIDDAY SHOW SBCAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 06/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 34599653 34099664 34009747 34299830 34869866 35459882 35999869 36059832 36099749 35399666 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 18:41:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 13:41:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506151852.j5FIq7Yn004596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151851 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-152045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1354 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM/SE CO/NW TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151851Z - 152045Z DEVELOPING STORMS OVER NE NM AND SE CO WILL LIKELY HAVE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THE STORMS APPROACH WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NNWWD FROM WRN OK ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN NEB. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F ALONG THIS AXIS WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS ERN CO AND KS SUGGESTING ENOUGH SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY ENHANCE SHEAR JUST ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 06/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35700370 36300498 37410511 38160428 38160258 37090167 35950212 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 19:40:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 14:40:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506151952.j5FJpvBL011306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151950 KSZ000-COZ000-152145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1355 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151950Z - 152145Z STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE AND MOVE ESEWD INTO WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD THROUGH WRN KS INTO WRN NEB. A FEW STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING IN ERN CO ALONG A BOUNDARY ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS KIT CARSON COUNTY. A CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SFC-BASED AS THEY MOVE ESEWD INTO NW KS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 37649984 38740217 39300254 39820187 39750002 38399844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 23:51:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 18:51:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506160002.j5G02HS3020031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160001 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-160130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1356 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 484... VALID 160001Z - 160130Z THROUGH 03-04Z...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD/SEWD FROM WRN KS INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS AND NWRN OK. ADDITIONAL WW/S MAY BECOME NECESSARY E OR SE OF WW 484 LATER THIS EVENING. CLUSTER OF TSTMS WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOL CONTINUES TO MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD ACROSS WRN KS AS OF 2343Z...WITH LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT FROM WALLACE AND WICHITA COUNTIES SWD INTO TEXAS COUNTY OK. ADDITIONAL STORMS /SEVERAL OF WHICH ARE UNDERGOING SPLITS/ HAVE ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER GOVE...TREGO AND ROOKS COUNTIES...IN CLOSE VICINITY TO NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY /MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY/ EXTENDING FROM E OF MCK SEWD THROUGH HYS AND EVENTUALLY INTO CNTRL OK. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS E OF WRN KS COLD POOL AND W OF AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. MOREOVER...LOCAL PROFILERS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY LONG HODOGRAPHS OWING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND MODEST TO STRONG HIGH-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR GOVE...TREGO AND ROOKS COUNTY STORMS TO MAINTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH TSTM CLUSTERS FARTHER TO THE W. GIVEN OBSERVED STORM SPLITS ASSOCIATED WITH TREGO AND ROOKS COUNTY STORMS...ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO W OF WW 484. AS LLJ INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...EXPECT ONGOING ACTIVITY TO MERGE INTO 1 OR MORE LARGE CLUSTERS OR MCS/S WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO SPREAD SEWD INTO NWRN OK...POSSIBLY REQUIRING AN ADDITIONAL WW. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 37070146 38250156 39250133 39640080 39989979 39829826 39209767 37879745 36849789 36439867 36229966 36470115 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 00:05:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 19:05:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506160016.j5G0GLR7025872@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160015 NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-160215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...WRN SD...SERN MT...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160015Z - 160215Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN WY...FAR WRN SD...SERN MT...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT IS FOR LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT OVERALL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TOO MARGINAL FOR WATCH ISSUANCE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM NEAR THE BIG HORN MTNS SEWD ACROSS ERN/SERN SECTIONS OF WY. ISOLATED CELLS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR NERN WY AT 2345Z. SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURES A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. UPSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...IT APPEARS FROM WV AND IR IMAGERY THAT A SRN EXTENTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN EXTENDS SSWWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL MT AND CENTRAL WY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH EWD INTO THE RIDGE AXIS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SURFACE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE NNWWD THROUGH NERN WY AND SERN MT. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS ERN WY/SERN MT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS SWRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY INTERACT WITH RICHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LATER THIS EVENING. MAINTENANCE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AIDED BY WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE OVER ERN WY AND UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM AND MARGINAL SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG...LONG-LIVED CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL. A FEW STORM CLUSTERS ORGANIZED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY ALSO CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY TRANSLATES GENERALLY ENEWD AT 20-25KT. ..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW... 45140321 44260269 43590231 42980224 42440221 41810224 41270232 41070258 41050300 41050355 41090446 41100519 42110536 42890565 43910636 44800702 45590746 46120754 46570722 46860676 47020586 46850507 46460459 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 03:04:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 22:04:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506160315.j5G3FLPf006694@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160314 OKZ000-KSZ000-160445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS INTO NWRN AND N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160314Z - 160445Z THROUGH 05Z...POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL KS/NWRN OK...POSSIBLY INTO N-CNTRL OK. CONDITIONS OVER NRN OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 03Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVY CONVECTIVE LINE FROM RICE...STAFFORD AND KIOWA COUNTIES IN CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO THE TX PNHDL NEAR AMA. NRN PORTION OF THIS MCS HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE SEWD AT AROUND 50 KTS OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR...SUGGESTING AN INCREASED LIKLIHOOD OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER RENO...PRATT AND KINGMAN COUNTIES THROUGH 04Z. FARTHER SW...PORTION OF MCS OVER NWRN OK IS JUST BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER AXIS OF LOCALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM S OF P28 TO SW OF END WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN 1500-2500 J/KG. LOCAL PROFILERS INDICATE THAT STRENGTHENING LLJ IS LIKELY ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...WHICH SUGGESTS ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED AND CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AS IT PROGRESSES EWD. MCS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL OK LATER TONIGHT. PRIMARY QUESTION IS WHETHER CIRCULATION ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM GUST FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS...GIVEN INCREASING CAP ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36439942 37259918 37759909 37979858 37939797 37349733 36829695 36339721 35939812 35999925 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 05:53:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 00:53:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506160604.j5G64M9k010791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160601 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160601 OKZ000-KSZ000-160730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1359 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...CNTRL/NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160601Z - 160730Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486 WILL BE CANCELLED EARLY AS THE LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVES OUT OF THE WW. ANOTHER WW DOWNSTREAM IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WAVY LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN KS AND NRN OK THIS EVENING. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LINE /BOWING LINE SEGMENTS/ FROM SERN KS INTO NERN OK WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED ACROSS NERN OK AND EXTREME SERN KS SHORTLY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THIS PORTION OF THE LINE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NWRN TX INTO CNTRL OK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE INTEGRITY OF THE LINE ACROSS NCNTRL INTO CNTRL OK DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRESENCE OF INCREASING INHIBITION MAY ALLOW THE GUST FRONT TO SURGE FARTHER FROM THE UPDRAFTS WITH TIME AND THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH. UNTIL THEN...ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. ..RACY.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 35919846 37239645 37939605 37819509 36899465 35809470 34869806 34849851  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 18:18:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 13:18:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506161829.j5GITvdU024228@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161829 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-162030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1360 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX AND NRN/CNTRL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161829Z - 162030Z SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DOWNBURST AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX AND CNTRL LA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND CELL DURATION. WHILE A WATCH DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR NECESSARY...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. MOST INTENSE CELLS INITIATED EARLIER ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION NW OF IER. ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DE SOTO TO JACKSON PARISHES IN NRN LA. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA SUGGESTING MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. AT PRESENT...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS LIKELY LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION AND EXPECT MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION TO POSE PRIMARILY AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE RED RIVER/NRN TX AREA...SPREADS ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHERMORE...IF ENOUGH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COINCIDENT WITH THIS INCREASE IN FLOW...A LARGER COLD POOL COULD ALLOW UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT TO A MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND/HAIL SITUATION. IF IT BECOMES CLEARER THAT THIS SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. ..CARBIN.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 30859136 30839224 30899433 30979563 31559630 31969638 32389588 32329506 32319440 32399365 32349298 32259218 32229184 31989113 31569078 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 18:33:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 13:33:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506161844.j5GIiX3o002220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161843 MTZ000-WYZ000-162045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1361 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WY AND MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL/NERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161843Z - 162045Z INCREASING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN MT. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MT. WV IMAGERY AT 1830Z CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS LEADING TO LARGE-SCALE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS ERN ID/SWRN MT...AND NW-SE ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE SWRN MTNS OF MT AT THE PRESENT TIME. DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THESE STORMS GIVEN AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL MT AND FAR NRN WY. A N-S SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PHILLIPS AND GARFIELD COUNTIES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S ALONG AND EWD TO NEAR GGW. THE 18Z GGW SOUNDING INDICATES MUCAPE OF 2300 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR LONG-LIVED CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL. MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM HLN TO COD AS IT ENCOUNTERS GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS S-CENTRAL MT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS ORGANIZED ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 45240807 44750790 44440855 44320982 45371150 45981213 46291235 46781207 47341125 48330983 48860872 48950799 48840704 48050683 47320712 45560775 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 19:44:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 14:44:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506161955.j5GJtxsx017074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161955 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161954 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-162230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1362 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...WRN OK....TX/OK PNHDLS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161954Z - 162230Z TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND A WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION SHORTLY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH REBOUNDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A RAPID INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FROM SERN CO/NERN NM ESEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN KS AND NWRN OK. WHILE MUCH OF THIS VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PROBABLY STILL CAPPED BY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /700MB TEMPS OF 12-14C/...A NARROW AXIS OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FOCUS FOR MOISTURE EXISTS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAP ACROSS WRN/NWRN OK. THIS AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MCS AND EXTENDS NWWD TO INTERSECT LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SERN CO AND THE OK/TX PNHDLS. ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF HEATING SHOULD SUFFICIENTLY ERODE THE CAP TO RESULT IN RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THESE FEATURES. FURTHER SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY COME FROM LOW-AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA AT THIS TIME. BAND OF ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35KT ATOP WEAKER SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. SPC HAIL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT MIGHT SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR...BUT MAY BE ENHANCED FOR SUPERCELLS TRACKING EWD/SEWD ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARY WHERE LFC IS LIKELY TO BE LOCALLY LOWER. ..CARBIN.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB... 35840079 35970171 36790279 37900277 38120184 37530042 36969770 36489722 35499751 35129824 35439920 35700016 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 19:58:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 14:58:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506162009.j5GK9s9T025571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162008 NEZ000-KSZ000-162215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1363 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB AND FAR NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162008Z - 162215Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB AND FAR NRN KS. EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. WELL-DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...WITH EYE-LIKE FEATURE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...WAS CENTERED OVER BLAINE COUNTY IN N-CENTRAL NEB AT 1950Z. TRAILING SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS AROUND THE ERN AND SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV...WITH POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS IN THE GRAND ISLAND AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS E-W ACROSS FAR SRN NEB...WHERE IT INTERSECTS NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. THE 100MB MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER. MODEST LOW-TO-MID LEVEL VEERING ON HASTINGS VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. SUFFICIENT SFC-6KM SHEAR /AROUND 35KT/ AND INSTABILITY EXIST FOR A LOCALIZED THREAT OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER CELLS. TRAINING EWD CELL MOTIONS OF ONLY AROUND 10 KT MAY ALSO RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN S-CENTRAL NEB DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD... 40870140 41040041 40999975 40969859 41249823 41349790 41179682 40669640 40259622 39849629 39759666 39790041 40040085 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 21:39:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 16:39:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506162150.j5GLoZ2c021352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162149 TXZ000-NMZ000-162315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM INTO WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162149Z - 162315Z DEVELOPING TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS ACTIVITY CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. AS OF 2138Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM QUAY/DE BACA SWD INTO EDDY COUNTIES IN ERN NM EWD INTO BAILEY AND COCHRAN COUNTIES IN WRN TX. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENT LBB VWP AND JAYTON PROFILER INDICATE SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY ABOVE 4-5 KM AGL WHICH IS RESULTING IN 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HIGH-BASED TSTMS /INCLUDING POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER SHOULD STORMS MERGE INTO CLUSTERS AND ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...POSSIBLY REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 32590450 34070448 35060371 35120273 35060239 34300156 33090140 32230158 31610193 31250252 31090344 31930431 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 21:44:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 16:44:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506162155.j5GLtP2M024478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162154 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-162330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN WY AND CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487... VALID 162154Z - 162330Z CONTINUE WW. BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES 245/20KT ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF MT. LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WWD INTO THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN IMPROVED INFLOW TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE WITH STORMS ENCOUNTERING MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER 35KT SWLY SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED CELLS INTO E-CENTRAL/NERN MT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH 17/00Z. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN WITH CONTINUED UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN UPPER JET. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...IN EXCESS OF 40F...SUGGEST STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH... 43580742 43570937 43571156 46921101 49031056 49090882 49070743 49010601 47780633 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 21:45:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 16:45:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506162156.j5GLur6G025194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162149 TXZ000-NMZ000-162315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM INTO WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162149Z - 162315Z DEVELOPING TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS ACTIVITY CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. AS OF 2138Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM QUAY/DE BACA SWD INTO EDDY COUNTIES IN ERN NM EWD INTO BAILEY AND COCHRAN COUNTIES IN WRN TX. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENT LBB VWP AND JAYTON PROFILER INDICATE SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY ABOVE 4-5 KM AGL WHICH IS RESULTING IN 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HIGH-BASED TSTMS /INCLUDING POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER SHOULD STORMS MERGE INTO CLUSTERS AND ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...POSSIBLY REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 32590450 34070448 35060371 35120273 35060239 34300156 33090140 32230158 31610193 31250252 31090344 31930431  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 21:50:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 16:50:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506162201.j5GM1GhC027984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162154 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-162330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN WY AND CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487... VALID 162154Z - 162330Z CONTINUE WW. BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES 245/20KT ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF MT. LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WWD INTO THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN IMPROVED INFLOW TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE WITH STORMS ENCOUNTERING MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER 35KT SWLY SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED CELLS INTO E-CENTRAL/NERN MT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH 17/00Z. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN WITH CONTINUED UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN UPPER JET. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...IN EXCESS OF 40F...SUGGEST STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH... 43580742 43570937 43571156 46921101 49031056 49090882 49070743 49010601 47780633  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 23:11:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 18:11:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506162322.j5GNMAq7002718@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162321 KSZ000-NEZ000-170115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1366 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN NEB AND NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162321Z - 170115Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SERN NEB AND NERN KS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. OVERALL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AT 23Z...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL NEB PER LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE ERN THROUGH SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER JUST NORTH OF CNK. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AXIS...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG...INTERSECTS THE EAST-WEST PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA. LIMITED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUATION OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. PROFILERS INDICATE THAT SFC-3KM WINDS ARE LIGHT...WITH 30-40KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED CORES CONTAINING LARGE HAIL...WITH CELLS MOVING SLOWLY ESEWD AT 5-10KT WITH MOTION OF MCV AND ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY. ..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39599866 40039859 40479694 40439643 40299575 39419516 39039534 38789566 38619629 38579712 38669771 38899829 39169850 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 23:23:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 18:23:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506162334.j5GNYoUO008390@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162334 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162333 OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-170100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS INTO NRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 488... VALID 162333Z - 170100Z THROUGH 01Z...POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST OVER SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK. THEREAFTER...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF A DAMAGING WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL OK...POSSIBLY INTO CNTRL OK. AS OF 2312Z...DDC VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA SHOWED RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS OVER HASKELL AND MEADE COUNTIES IN SWRN KS...AS WELL AS NRN HARPER COUNTY IN NWRN OK. MEANWHILE...LEFT-MOVING STORM SPLITS WERE OBSERVED OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CLARK AND COMANCHE COUNTIES IN SWRN KS. BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INVOF NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SWRN KS INTO CNTRL OK REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING OWING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MLCAPES AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CURRENT HAVILAND KS PROFILER INDICATES STRONG VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL WITH STRONG ANVIL LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS RESULTING IN LONG HODOGRAPHS ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MARGINALLY STRONG...THE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER AND LOW LFC HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH CYCLONIC SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL TO SOFTBALL SIZE OR LARGER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A SEWD-MOVING MCS LATER TONIGHT AS INDIVIDUAL CELL COLD POOL/S MERGE AND ORGANIZE. GIVEN OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...INCLUDING DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OK...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PROGRESSIVE DERECHO/BOW ECHO. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 38750201 36849563 35159562 37110206 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 00:52:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 19:52:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506170103.j5H13P33012070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170102 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-170230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1368 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170102Z - 170230Z IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING OVER WRN AND CNTRL OK OVERNIGHT. AS OF 0048Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT INTENSE STORMS OVER SWRN KS...THE ERN OK PNHDL AND NWRN OK ARE ORGANIZING A COLD POOL FROM JUST E OF LBL SEWD TO N OF GAG TO NEAR ALVA OK. 00Z OUN SOUNDING INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER CNTRL OK IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM AND MLCAPES OF AROUND 4000 J/KG. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SEWD WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LARGELY ALONG OR JUST ON COOL SIDE OF BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH ONGOING STORMS /NE OF GAG/ TO W OF THE OKC METRO TO THE RED RIVER OVER S-CNTRL OK/N-CNTRL TX. MODEST-STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW /PER 00Z AMA AND OUN SOUNDINGS/ COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE FLOW /VIA DEVELOPING LLJ OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK/ AND THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID FORWARD-PROPAGATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND/DERECHO EVENT. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS S OF WW 488. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36140031 37060049 37230041 36889838 35339687 34099679 33939768 34139874 34779990 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 01:45:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 20:45:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506170156.j5H1uKug002595@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170155 MTZ000-170330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0855 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT...NRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487... VALID 170155Z - 170330Z THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN/ERN PORTIONS OF WW 487 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER CENTRAL/ERN MT AHEAD OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN MT. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE DOWNWARD MOTION AND CANOPY OF CIRRUS CLOUDS/OUTFLOW COOLED AIR OVER SCENTRAL MT/NCENTRAL WY SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE LINES MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MT APPEARS LIMITED. ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINES SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS/MUCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG/ OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 04Z. NEWD COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE SVR THREAT FROM MOVING MUCH EAST OF WW 487 BEFORE INHIBITION INCREASES AND SVR THREAT DIMINISHES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING /AROUND 04Z...WW 487 EXPIRATION TIME/. ..CROSBIE.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 46910642 49080625 48971034 48631143 47101127 45030720 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 03:45:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 22:45:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506170356.j5H3uIYU022384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170355 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-170530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491... VALID 170355Z - 170530Z CORRIDORS OF 60-70 MPH WINDS WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIKELY WITH ONGOING MCS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS OF 0330Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH EMBEDDED HP SUPERCELLS FROM CNTRL LOGAN COUNTY WWD INTO ROGER MILLS COUNTY GENERALLY MOVING S AT 40 MPH. 75 MPH WINDS WERE RECENTLY OBSERVED IN LOGAN COUNTY WITHIN REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT /RFD/ REGION OF LONG-LIVED HP SUPERCELL WHERE AMBIENT WINDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY MESOCYCLONE CIRCULATION. RUC ANALYSES AND MODIFICATION OF 00Z OUN SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER CNTRL/SRN OK REMAINS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OF 45-55 KTS /PER MODIFICATION OF TWIN LAKES VWP FOR OBSERVED STORM MOTION/...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE FOR CONTINUATION OF THIS DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS /POSSIBLY LASTING UPWARDS OF 10 MINUTES/ WITHIN RFD REGIONS OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 37240008 36939549 33889552 34120011 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 05:17:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 00:17:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506170528.j5H5S8ZN028518@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170527 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170527 TXZ000-OKZ000-170700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1371 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N TX / NWRN LA / SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170527Z - 170700Z LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS OK...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO N TX WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED. MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS S OK / N TX TO THE S AND E OF MCS...PARTICULARLY IN A NW-SE AXIS FROM S CENTRAL / SERN OK ACROSS N TX AND INTO SERN TX ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY. MCS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED...AND GIVEN FAVORABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO SPREAD RAPIDLY SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...REQUIRING NEW WW ISSUANCE INTO TX AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NWRN LA / SERN LA. ..GOSS.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... 33909577 33479502 31939446 31269560 31449765 31959818 33349871 34099877 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 08:29:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 03:29:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506170840.j5H8e5RF005008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170839 ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-171015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491... VALID 170839Z - 171015Z MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WITHIN MCS NOW MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SERN OK / THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARD WRN AR / THE ARKLATEX. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN OK PORTION OF WW. STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN MCS HAVE TAKEN ON A DECIDEDLY MORE ESEWD MOTION OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...AS INTERSECTION OF AN EWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER N TX ASSOCIATED WITH AN EARLIER STORM AND SWD-MOVING BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MCS MARKS THE WRN EDGE OF STRONGEST CONVECTION. UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS SERN OK / NERN TX. HOWEVER...STRATIFORM-TYPE RAIN NOW EVIDENT AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS OK MAY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE DEGREE THAT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AT THE SURFACE DECREASES WITH TIME ACROSS REMAINING FEW COUNTIES WITHIN WW. FURTHERMORE...MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS WRN AR ALSO CASTS DOUBT ON THE NEED FOR NEW WW FURTHER E. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE HOUR. FINALLY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ABOVE COLD POOL ACROSS WRN OK...AS LOW-LEVEL JET PERSISTS ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MARGINAL HAIL GIVEN STABILIZED / RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER. ..GOSS.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... 35339558 35689492 34669445 34029448 33919550 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 15:06:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 10:06:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506171517.j5HFH42g023277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171516 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171516 MSZ000-LAZ000-171715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LA...WRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493... VALID 171516Z - 171715Z A LINE OF STORMS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS LA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WW SOUTH OF WW 493 MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED SOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX IN ERN OK MOVING SEWD INTO THE AR AND LA WITH STRONG ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS LA. THIS IS DRIVING A CONVECTIVE LINE SEWD ACROSS LA AND WRN MS. THE LINE IS MOVING INTO 70 TO 75 F DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 80 F WHICH IS HELPING TO CREATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE LINE SHOULD REMAIN STRONG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND THE LINE MOVES INTO THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30129114 30909281 31519272 32219205 31819059 30988956 30019008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 18:16:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 13:16:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506171827.j5HIRDmI014884@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171826 MTZ000-171930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1374 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171826Z - 171930Z SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE REQUIRED. CONTINUED HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ALONG WITH BROAD AREA OF 55-60+ SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR MDT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF FORCING AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE...STORM MOTIONS WILL BE QUITE FAST WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL WITHIN SURFACE MOIST AXIS WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKED AND LCL HEIGHTS LOWEST. ..JEWELL.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO... 48960855 46890846 45100943 45031200 45721230 46351248 48931338 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 18:27:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 13:27:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506171838.j5HIc7Dj022500@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171837 FLZ000-172030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171837Z - 172030Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL WILL HAVE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW ATTM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE SERN US WITH A MOISTURE PLUME DRIFTING EWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MOIST PLUME PARTIALLY DUE TO SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON IN FL SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER THE STORMS SHOULD BE PULSE IN NATURE DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE DUE TO WARMING SFC TEMPS. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A ISOLATED MARGINAL WIND THREAT ACROSS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF FL THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 25128057 26968223 28388240 28718149 28348069 26668008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 20:32:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 15:32:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506172043.j5HKh2Vb007392@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172041 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-172245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1376 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...SRN MS AND SRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494... VALID 172041Z - 172245Z A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS ACROSS SRN LA...SRN MS AND SRN AL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST AND SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL WW ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS LA INTO FAR SRN MS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S F WITH SBCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD FUEL THE CONVECTION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER EAST TX NOSING INTO LA WHICH MAY INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO SUSTAIN A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES REMAINING BELOW 30 KT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH... 30798882 31608817 31608766 31218734 30128803 29378917 28899021 29029093 29649241 30189190 29809051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 21:51:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 16:51:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506172202.j5HM2jQu020508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172201 LAZ000-TXZ000-172300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N TX INTO NWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172201Z - 172300Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM 30 N MWL TO THE DAL/FTW METROPLEX TO NEAR GGG INTO NWRN LA JUST S OF SHV. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THIS FEATURE. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA IS IN A REGION OF NEGLIGIBLE FORCING FOR ASCENT /POSSIBLY EVEN SUBSIDENCE ZONE/ IN WAKE OF MCV TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA. THUS...MESOSCALE LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY WILL BE PRIMARY MECHANISM INITIATING DEEP CONVECTION. MODIFYING PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LOCALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY YIELDS MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL ON CURRENT PALESTINE PROFILER...PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND MODEST /I.E. 40-45 KT/ NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD... 33279839 33319812 33129669 32939535 32319356 31899336 31459389 31479474 31699624 32249815 32629856 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 21:58:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 16:58:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506172209.j5HM9hbu024339@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172209 MTZ000-WYZ000-180015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495... VALID 172209Z - 180015Z LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MT...SUGGESTING STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INGEST STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WHERE CIN HAS ERODED. MODIFIED 18Z GGW SOUNDING CONFIRMS LITTLE INHIBITION IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN VERY STRONG STORM RELATIVE INFLOW / INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET / AND CONTINUED HEATING...STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF A LIBERTY TO STILLWATER COUNTY LINE. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN MT...AS STORMS MOVE QUICKLY NERN OUT OF WW 495. ..JEWELL.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO... 44980807 45001198 48951331 48980911 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 02:04:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 21:04:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506180215.j5I2F7j6030441@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180212 MTZ000-180315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0912 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496... VALID 180212Z - 180315Z THROUGH 03Z...APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS VALLEY COUNTY. AS OF 0200Z...GGW RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF INTENSIFYING TSTMS OVER NERN PHILLIPS COUNTY MOVING 235/40-45 KTS. IT APPEARS THAT STRONG ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COLD POOL IS ALLOWING PARCELS TO REACH THE LFC AND REALIZE AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE 2000-3000 MLCAPES OBSERVED ON THE 00Z GGW SOUNDING. COLLISION OF THIS GUST FRONT WITH WWD MOVING BOUNDARY/MOISTURE SURGE MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL VALLEY COUNTY. GIVEN OUTFLOW DOMINANT CHARACTER OF ONGOING CONVECTION...EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ..MEAD.. 06/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 49070894 49070541 46680493 46680829  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 03:47:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 22:47:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506180358.j5I3w1TZ003044@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180356 MTZ000-180500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1380 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496... VALID 180356Z - 180500Z THROUGH 05Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST OVER VALLEY...WRN ROOSEVELT AND DANIELS COUNTIES IN NERN MT. AS OF 0345Z...GGW RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS MERGING INTO A WAVY LINE FROM NWRN DANIELS COUNTY SSWWD TO SRN VALLEY COUNTY. SRN PORTION OF LINE HAS EVOLVED INTO A BOWING STRUCTURE WITH A MOTION OF 220/45-50 KTS...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 70 MPH ALONG/N OF THE FT. PECK RESERVOIR. EXTRAPOLATION OF ONGOING TSTMS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL TO SPREAD E OF WW 496 INTO DANIELS...WRN ROOSEVELT AND PERHAPS WRN SHERIDAN COUNTIES THROUGH 05 OR 06Z. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED OWING TO LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT. ..MEAD.. 06/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 49070891 49070538 46690493 46680832 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 16:15:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 11:15:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506181626.j5IGQ7qo019091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181625 SCZ000-GAZ000-181830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1381 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181625Z - 181830Z SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN GA AND SC. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE SRN EDGE. AS A RESULT...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG ACROSS ERN GA AND SRN SC. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS NEARLY GONE AND A FEW SFC-BASED STORMS ARE INITIATING IN ERN GA. AS THE CELLS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL EXIST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SHOW LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -11C TO -13C. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS CELLS MATURE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31108259 31918309 33378219 34078093 33917986 33057933 31958090 30788164 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 19:45:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 14:45:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506181956.j5IJubUi012471@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181955 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-182200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1382 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC...WRN SC AND NE GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181955Z - 182200Z THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS WRN NC...WRN SC AND NE GA WILL HAVE A HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW. A LINE OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING ALONG A RIDGE-LINE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NC AND NRN GA DUE TO SFC HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-TROUGH. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNDER THE UPPER-LOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK BUT SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS THE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...THE WEAK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER A COLD POOL ALOFT WHERE 500 MB TEMPS ARE NEAR -15C WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...FFC... 35898010 34978115 33838313 33998358 34598385 35908209 36588089 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 20:24:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 15:24:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506182035.j5IKZsmg028715@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182034 IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-182230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1383 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182034Z - 182230Z HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS WRN AND NRN ID LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW ATTM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW ROTATING JUST OFF THE COAST OF ORE WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A VORTICITY MAX EVIDENT IN SRN ID. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS WRN AND NRN ID CONTINUING TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A BRIEF HAIL THREAT MAY BE PRESENT DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS OF -22C)...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 42961519 43341650 43981690 46451663 46321433 43771419 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 21:06:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 16:06:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506182117.j5ILHcrX014266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182116 NDZ000-SDZ000-182345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0416 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND AND N-CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182116Z - 182345Z INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU ALONG COLD FRONT FROM W-CNTRL ND INTO NRN SD...WITH SFC LOW CLEARLY EVIDENT OVER MOUNTRAIL COUNTY ND. STRONG INSTABILITY IS NOW IN PLACE BUT INITIATION IS BEING RETARDED BY WARM CAPPING LAYER NEAR 700 MB. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WITH COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO FORM. THE MOST LIKELY AREA WILL BE OVER N CENTRAL ND WHERE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS STORMS MOVE FARTHER E INTO LARGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER ON THIS EVENING FARTHER SOUTH...WHEN CAPPING LAYER COOLS JUST ABOVE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ..JEWELL.. 06/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 50369809 49199843 46929968 45369993 44790142 44700274 45290249 45900224 46670216 47360219 47830250 48210276 48740287 49640207 50949951 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 02:06:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 21:06:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506190217.j5J2HGVC025779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190216 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-190415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1385 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0916 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190216Z - 190415Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 03-05Z OVER PARTS OF SERN MT AND SPREAD NEWD INTO WRN ND. A SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCE OF INITIATION EXISTS FARTHER EAST OVER CNTRL ND. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ONCE IT APPEARS INITIATION IS IMMINENT. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH NWRN SD INTO NERN WY. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY EXISTS FROM E CNTRL ND SWWD TO NEAR BISMARK. THE ATMOSPHERE IN VICINITY OF AND E OF THE FRONT OVER ND REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG AND AROUND 1500 J/KG FARTHER SW INTO SE MT WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOLER AND DRYER. THE WRN BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER WRN ND THIS EVENING...AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THETA-E ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE SERN MT PORTION OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE ETA AND THE RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA THIS EVENING...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING OVER SERN MT. STORMS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP NEWD INTO WRN ND. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50+ KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. FARTHER EAST...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL ND...AND THE 00Z BISMARK RAOB SHOWED ONLY A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FORCING FOR INITIATION HAS BEEN MODEST. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IF INITIATION DOES HAPPEN...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO SPREAD INTO THIS REGION FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. ..DIAL.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45320419 44650676 45460771 46500513 48500310 48930120 48619962 46950017 45990171 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 06:25:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 01:25:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506190636.j5J6ankm019231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190636 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190635 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-190800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT / WRN AND CENTRAL ND / NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497... VALID 190635Z - 190800Z STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...AND MAY SHIFT EWD OUT OF WW / INTO CENTRAL AND NRN ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED SOON. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL STRONG STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS OVER SERN MT AND ADJACENT SWRN ND / NWRN SD ATTM...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO SMALL BOW ECHOES WITH TIME. THOUGH STORMS REMAIN ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NNE-SSW ACROSS CENTRAL ND...EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT STORM MOTION SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY CROSS THE FRONT INTO VERY UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS ALONG / E OF FRONT. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO VEER WITH TIME...CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS ACROSS FRONT SEEMS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE. GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS NEAR 70/ AND INSTABILITY ACROSS WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH FAVORABLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD INCREASE ASSUMING STORMS SHIFT EWD INTO AIRMASS OF INCREASINGLY-LESS-ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WW W OF FRONT. ..GOSS.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 47880388 48829895 48779710 47299770 45360157 45160658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 08:23:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 03:23:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506190834.j5J8Y46s031473@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190832 NDZ000-191000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497... VALID 190832Z - 191000Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER NERN CORNER OF WW. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING NEWD / ENEWD ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF WW ATTM...WITH STRONGEST STORM NOW MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 498. WITH MAJORITY OF SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO VACATE THIS WW BY 19/09Z...WATCH 497 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..GOSS.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS... 47880140 47870063 46830176 47300173 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 09:57:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 04:57:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506191008.j5JA8QF7001620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191007 MNZ000-NDZ000-191130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498... VALID 191007Z - 191130Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF WW...AND MAY AFFECT A COUPLE OF ADJACENT COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING NEWD INTO CANADA. NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST RADAR SHOWS ROTATING STORM / STORM CLUSTER MOVING NEWD NEAR 50 KT...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO CANADA BY 19/12Z. THIS STORM / STORM CLUSTER REMAINS THE ONLY SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING ATTM...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE S OR W OF THIS CONVECTION NOT ANTICIPATED. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THOUGH MAJORITY OF SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN CONFINED BY WW...PARTS OF WRN WALSH / WRN PEMBINA COUNTIES MAY BE AFFECTED BY THIS CONVECTION BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CANADA. HOWEVER...SINCE ANY THREAT OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH WOULD BE LIMITED BOTH TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY...NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD STORMS ENTER CANADA BY 12Z AS ANTICIPATED...WW MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION. ..GOSS.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48160001 48979894 49019712 48349772 47639949 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 17:27:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 12:27:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506191738.j5JHcg8F025335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191738 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191737 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-191930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1389 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SC...SE GA...FAR NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191737Z - 191930Z SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN SC AND ERN GA. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW ATTM. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND ACROSS SRN SC AND SERN GA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER SC WITH A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING SWD AROUND THE LOW. THE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND INLAND ACROSS GA AND SC THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS HAS RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F AND LOWER 70S RESULTING MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30228200 30718320 31608326 33128106 32818028 32338057 31308139 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 20:13:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 15:13:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506192024.j5JKOeDC026073@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192023 MNZ000-NDZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1390 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192023Z - 192200Z STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN ERN ND AND SHOULD HAVE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN ND EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS FAR NW MN. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS GONE AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FROM ALONG THE BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE AND DEVELOP BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP...THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 48859719 47579843 46849734 47899445 48739435 48989560 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 20:47:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 15:47:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506192058.j5JKw86Q006464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192057 SDZ000-NDZ000-192300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1391 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SD AND SRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192057Z - 192300Z A LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST IF STORMS CAN INITIATE IN NRN SD AND SRN ND THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM WEST OF MOBRIDGE SD TO NEAR GRAND FORKS ND. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS STRONG ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING. THIS MAY ALLOW TOWERING CUMULUS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF BISMARK TO EXPAND AND DEVELOP INTO A STORM OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF SD. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IF STORMS CAN INITIATE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST DUE TO THE EXTREME INSTABILITY. HOWEVER..LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..BROYLES.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46539837 45329839 43930134 43800228 44560245 45840207 47199916 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 21:53:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 16:53:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506192204.j5JM4jI1032529@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192203 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1392 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WY...SERN MT AND WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192203Z - 200030Z POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER NRN WY...SERN MT INTO WRN SD. SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH W CNTRL SD INTO SERN WY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE HAS SPREAD THROUGH NRN MT AND ND IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A THERMAL LOW OVER WY IS CONTRIBUTING TO NELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BIG HORNS OF NRN WY...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S CNTRL AND SERN MT AND THE BLACK HILLS OF WRN SD. SURFACE HEATING IS FURTHER ENHANCING OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING. THE ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AS FAR W AS SHERIDAN WY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 J/KG OVER SERN MT/NERN WY TO 2500 J/G OVER WRN SD. A BAND OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW EXIST OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ABOVE THE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. TIMING OF INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ..DIAL.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW... 43590319 43890502 44010687 44840774 45680861 46070774 46120579 45420299 44490219 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 22:07:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 17:07:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506192217.j5JMHuIU005104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192217 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-200015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1393 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY / WRN NEBRASKA / NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192217Z - 200015Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S INTO NERN CO AND ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER. THERE IS LITTLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT...REFLECTED BY THE LACK OF PRESSURE FALLS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE 1-2 KM DEEP ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE MTS / CO FRONT RANGE WHICH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN ERODED CAP...CONTINUED HEATING...AND UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT QUICKLY. IN ADDITION...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD OUT OF CENTRAL SD INTO NWRN NEBRASKA MAY BE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE REGION IS NEARLY UNCAPPED. ..JEWELL.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 39020228 39220399 39560562 40410564 41440547 42070553 42820587 42950245 42520195 41800222 39120215 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 23:53:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 18:53:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506200004.j5K040br011228@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200002 MNZ000-NDZ000-200200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND THROUGH NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499... VALID 200002Z - 200200Z THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER NWRN MN NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE ERN PARTS OF WW 499. A SMALL WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED E OF CURRENT WATCH IF STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO BUILD SWWD INTO ERN ND DURING THE EVENING. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH ERN AND S CNTRL ND THEN FARTHER SW INTO WRN SD. A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN SD...SERN ND INTO NWRN MN. ATMOSPHERE IN VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 J/KG OVER NWRN MN TO 3500 J/KG OVER SERN ND. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS BEEN OVER NWRN MN. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY IS BEING ENHANCED ON NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET THAT APPEARS TO BE COUPLED WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ACROSS SRN CANADA. A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INTENSIFY FARTHER SWWD THROUGH ERN SD THIS EVENING...AND THIS MAY INCREASE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FARTHER SWD INTO SERN ND...NERN SD. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP FARTHER SWWD...THEY MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY THAT RESIDES OVER SERN ND. ..DIAL.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... 48239348 47069509 46059790 46419890 47989735 49419567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 04:33:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 23:33:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506200444.j5K4igSM022262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200444 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200443 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1395 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NERN WY AND WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500... VALID 200443Z - 200645Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NERN WY INTO SERN MT. ACTIVITY IN NERN WY MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO WRN SD. OTHER STORMS MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING FARTHER WWD INTO S CNTRL AND SERN MT. ASIDE FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN NERN WY AND ARE NOW MOVING INTO SERN MT...STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP FARTHER W TOWARD S CNTRL MT. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A VORT MAX MOVING NEWD THROUGH SWRN MT OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS. IN ADDITION...A BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER SERN MT TONIGHT. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES MAY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. A SMALL SUPERCELL RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER ROSEBUD COUNTY WITH OTHER CONVECTION DEVELOPING S OF THIS STORM. ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER NERN WY HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD NWRN SD WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STRONGLY CAPPED. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL...LIFT MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND WOULD PROMOTE ACTIVITY FORWARD PROPAGATING EWD INTO WRN SD. ..DIAL.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW... 44150374 44480692 44870889 46200878 46700800 46580631 45770350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 07:07:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 02:07:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506200718.j5K7IO35010836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200717 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200717 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1396 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / NERN WY / NWRN SD / SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500... VALID 200717Z - 200815Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE IN AND NEAR WW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEW WW UPON SCHEDULED 20/08Z EXPIRATION OF WW 501. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS INCREASING ACROSS E CENTRAL AND SERN MT...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE VORT MAX MOVING NEWD ACROSS NWRN WY / SWRN MT WITHIN FAST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. WITH STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...MAIN SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MARGINAL HAIL. FARTHER SE...CONVECTION OVER FAR SERN MT / FAR NERN WY INTO NWRN SD APPEARS TO BE ATTEMPTING TO ORGANIZE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL. MESOSCALE CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN BUTTE / HARDING / PERKINS COUNTIES SD ATTM...WHICH CONCEIVABLY COULD BECOME THE ROTATING COMMA HEAD OF A BOW-TYPE ECHO. COULD THIS CLUSTER INDEED EVOLVE INTO A BOWING MCS...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD INCREASE...GIVEN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST N OF SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE FACT THAT THIS ORGANIZATION HAS STRUGGLED TO OCCUR THUS FAR SUGGESTS THAT WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...WITH LINGERING SEVERE THREAT CONFINED TO PRIMARILY MARGINAL HAIL. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE STORM ORGANIZATION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HOUR...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED NEED FOR POSSIBLE NEW WW. ..GOSS.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46640734 47540613 47360349 46770130 45930077 44450142 44020320 44430469 45890731 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 09:31:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 04:31:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506200941.j5K9fs9t001417@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200940 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-201115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT / SRN ND / NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502... VALID 200940Z - 201115Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW...AND MAY SPREAD EWD OUT OF WW INTO PORTIONS OF SERN ND / NERN SD. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO COVER POSSIBLE EWD SPREAD OF SEVERE THREAT. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG / SEVERE STORMS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF WW...WHERE AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THOUGH MAJORITY OF THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THIS WW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...STORMS ACROSS NWRN SD HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. THIS CONVECTION -- THOUGH OCCURRING INVOF APPARENT WEAKNESS IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD -- SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS IT MOVES EWD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL. WITH AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO INCREASINGLY-MORE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY...NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED E OF WATCH 502. ..GOSS.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 47130684 47120339 46580002 46969765 46379687 45149860 44880189 45480503 46080687 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 11:18:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 06:18:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506201129.j5KBT6uo013142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201128 SDZ000-NDZ000-201300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1398 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502... VALID 201128Z - 201300Z STORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS MUCH OF WW...THOUGH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN ND. STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS WW ATTM REMAIN WITHIN BOW ECHO NOW EXITING WW 502 / ENTERING WW 503. THESE STORMS SHOULD VACATE EMMONS COUNTY WITHIN THE HOUR -- THE ERN-MOST COUNTY WITHIN WW 502. STORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...THOUGH CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW OVER SWRN ND MAY POSE A LOCAL / LOW-END THREAT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ASSUMING PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 20/13Z EXPIRATION. ..GOSS.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 47240323 47410103 45920100 45920353 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 12:29:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 07:29:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506201240.j5KCehfH014514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201239 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-201415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1399 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND / W CENTRAL MN / NERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503... VALID 201239Z - 201415Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW. WELL-DEVELOPED BOW ECHO CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SERN ND AT 45 KT...WHILE ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS -- INCLUDING A SPLIT SUPERCELL PAIR -- ARE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE BOWING MCS. EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT NRN PORTIONS OF BOW MAY AFFECT COUNTIES JUST N OF WW -- ACROSS E CENTRAL ND AND NWRN MN -- IN THE NEXT 1 1/2 TO 2 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL WITHIN WW...THUS EXPECT THAT A SLIGHTLY MORE EWD MOVEMENT OF BOW MAY EVOLVE WITH TIME -- KEEPING MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITHIN WW. EITHER WAY...ANY THREAT N OF WW WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO ONLY A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES...AND THUS NEW WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. SHOULD THREAT INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY N OF WW WITH TIME...A REPLACEMENT WW COULD BECOME MORE LIKELY. ..GOSS.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46799942 47059869 47569711 47699602 47259499 45709493 45699867 46309893 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 14:10:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 09:10:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506201420.j5KEKopj009723@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201420 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201419 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-201515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1400 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ND AND WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503... VALID 201419Z - 201515Z LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES 27040 AND ABOUT TO CROSS ND/MN BORDER. LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE LINE HAS OVERTAKEN EARLIER SUPERCELLS OVER RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AND OVERALL THERE IS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IN THE LINE ITSELF. THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE AS IT MOVES INTO WRN MN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A COUPLE MORE HOURS BUT WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. PLANS ARE TO ALLOW WW503 TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 15Z WITH SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ..HALES.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46799942 47059869 47569711 47699602 47259499 45709493 45699867 46309893 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 15:32:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 10:32:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506201543.j5KFhIFr000933@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201542 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201542 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-201645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1401 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MINNESOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201542Z - 201645Z LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ONGOING SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS NWRN MN HAS RE-INTENSIFIED. A NEW WATCH COULD BE ISSUED SHORTLY ..HALES.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46799942 47059869 47569711 47699602 47259499 45709493 45699867 46309893 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 17:49:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 12:49:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506201800.j5KI0Mem032468@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201759 MNZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-201930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1402 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201759Z - 201930Z BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING SEVERE STORMS CENTRAL MN TRAILS WSWWD INTO E CENTRAL SD. S OF BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO LOW 70S AND TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90F THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 4000 J/KG. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER SPINK COUNTY SD IN RESPONSE TO LIFT OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. WITH CONTINUED HEATING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ALONG AND N OF THIS E/W BOUNDARY WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY. A WATCH COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FROM ERN SD INTO SRN MN. ..HALES.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR... 45269822 45399714 45439592 45519477 45689324 45519274 44779231 43939253 43819440 43849641 44089792 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 19:04:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 14:04:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506201915.j5KJFB32018686@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201913 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201913 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-202115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND N CENTRAL NEBRASKA / SOUTH CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201913Z - 202115Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED ACROSS SRN SD / NRN AND NWRN NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE APPEARS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD OUT OF SWRN SD INTO NWRN NEBRASKA...WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. BOUNDARY MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED FARTHER E INTO S CENTRAL SD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR FORCING IS QUITE UNFAVORABLE AT THIS TIME...WITH RIDGE ALOFT AND DIFFLUENT 850 MB FLOW. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES STORMS BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH CAPPING REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS EVIDENT BY HORIZONTAL WAVE CLOUDS...CONTINUED HEATING WILL WEAKEN INHIBITION FURTHER WITH LBF AND RAP MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATING UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 NEEDED TO ERASE CIN. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES AND FORCING ARE WEAK...STORMS MAY GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ORGANIZATION. ..JEWELL.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 43150277 43560032 44139912 43839845 42999813 42439891 42090036 41650188 41090249 41040330 41120394 43010416 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 20:59:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 15:59:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506202110.j5KLATAN028195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202109 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-202315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1404 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0409 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL MT / NRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202109Z - 202315Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXCEEDING 60 F WELL INTO CENTRAL MT. MODIFIED 18Z GGW SOUNDING SHOWS AREA IS UNCAPPED...WHILE RAP SOUNDING SUGGESTS AREA WILL REQUIRE SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING BEFORE STORMS CAN SURVIVE AS THEY MOVE OFF THE BLACK HILLS. AREA WIND PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE REGION WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS AND WEAK BUT VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. DUE TO THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...TORNADO THREAT IS NOT HIGH BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SUPERCELLS MORPH INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING. ..JEWELL.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO... 46130705 45250640 44860395 44680307 43910246 43780279 43910348 44160583 44090677 44360726 44880785 45440867 46050978 46431223 47491315 48311350 48941391 48910744 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 22:15:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 17:15:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506202226.j5KMQOm7007998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202225 NEZ000-COZ000-210030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1405 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0525 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202225Z - 210030Z A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THROUGH MID EVENING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS EVENING STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO INCLUDING THE FRONT RANGE W OF DENVER AS WELL AS THE PALMER DIVIDE. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NERN CO ALONG A NE-SW ORIENTED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO NEAR 3000 J/KG NEAR THE CO/NEB BORDER. THIS REGION IS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WITH RESULTING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...WEAK FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS TRANSIENT MULTICELL STRUCTURES SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT STORM TYPE. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..DIAL.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 40380201 39120229 38680381 38000514 40460464 41080266 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 23:28:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 18:28:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506202339.j5KNdEDR010835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202338 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1406 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN IA AND NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506... VALID 202338Z - 210115Z THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH CNTRL AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN IA THIS EVENING. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF SRN IA AND POSSIBLY INTO A SMALL PART OF ERN NEB WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SQUALL LINE CONTINUES MOVING SWD THROUGH NRN IA AT AROUND 30 KT. AT ITS CURRENT SPEED THE LINE WILL APPROACH SRN END OF WW 506 BY 0030Z. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE FROM S CNTRL THROUGH SWRN IA INTO ERN NEB WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500-3500 J/KG. STRONGEST CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE OVER N CNTRL IA WHERE THE COLD POOL IS WELL DEVELOPED AND THE LINE IS SURGING MORE RAPIDLY SWD. DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MORE LIMITED ALONG THE WRN FLANKS OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE IS WEAKER. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES SHOW CUMULUS INCREASING OVER SERN SD INTO NERN NEB...AND SOME WWD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42729689 42499475 42509344 42599246 41049289 40969490 41769655 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 23:51:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 18:51:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506210002.j5L022dq020801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210000 ORZ000-WAZ000-210200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OREGON / SWRN WA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210000Z - 210200Z A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU OVER THE OREGON CASCADES AS WELL AS OVER SRN WA CASCADES. INSTABILITY FIELDS ALONG AND E OF THE MTNS ARE WEAK WITH MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG. ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE MTNS...DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE A BIT HIGHER AND IN THE 50S. INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS IS STRONGER BUT COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WEAK FORCING DUE MAINLY TO UPSLOPE/TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER N CENTRAL OREGON WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE IS MAXIMIZED. STRONG WIND FIELDS IN PLACE ALONG WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT FORECAST STORM MOTIONS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A WLY COMPONENT IF ANY...CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER W OF THE CASCADES APPEARS TO BE LOW. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS THAT MOVE WWD OFF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED ABOVE THE COOLER AIR MASS BELOW AND MAY WEAKEN. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR... 44721852 43712154 43822199 45082223 46642229 47472204 47582091 45521831 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 02:02:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 21:02:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506210213.j5L2DPUS015521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210212 MTZ000-210415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1408 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0912 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507... VALID 210212Z - 210415Z ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH N CNTRL MT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING OCCURRED OVER THIS AREA TODAY WITH MLCAPES 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS IN THIS REGION WITH 50+ KT IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE STORM INITIATION. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM THE RUC SUGGESTS A VORT MAX IS MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO WRN MT. MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME ANCHORED IN THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER E OF HIGHER TERRAIN...THEY SHOULD BECOME SEVERE WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. SOME STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO BOW ECHOES AS THEY SPREAD EWD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47010628 46750978 46681226 47951260 48831123 48970653 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 02:50:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 21:50:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506210301.j5L311Jo003957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210300 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-210400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1409 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...SWRN MN...ERN NB AND WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506... VALID 210300Z - 210400Z WRN PORTIONS OF WW 507 THAT COVERS A PART OF NERN NEB...SERN SD AND NWRN IA WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED THROUGH 05Z. THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS IN THIS GENERAL AREA. LATE THIS EVENING A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN IA NWWD THROUGH NERN NEB...SERN SD AND THEN NEWD INTO SWRN MN. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME SRN SD NWWD INTO SWRN MN WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE IN THE VICINITY OF AND W OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. THIS AREA IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITH NWLY 30 KT AT 5 KM ABOVE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THIS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY SWWD WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS WITH SWD EXTENT INTO NEB...AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN W OF THIS AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THESE LIMITING FACTORS AND A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MUCH FARTHER SWD INTO NEB. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 42659526 41499728 42219863 43849916 44079829 45199524 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 03:51:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 22:51:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506210402.j5L42dav031010@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210402 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210401 NDZ000-MTZ000-210500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1410 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MT THROUGH WRN ND. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507... VALID 210401Z - 210500Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507 WILL BE REPLACED SOON BY ANOTHER WW THAT WILL INCLUDE CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT INTO WRN ND. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS LATER TONIGHT AND SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OVER CNTRL AND NE MT. STORMS MAY REMAIN ISOLATED FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN MT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT IN THIS REGION AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS. SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND SPREAD ESEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH ERN MT AND INTO WRN ND. STRONG MUCAPE AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND EVENTUALLY BOW ECHOES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND LIKELY. ..DIAL.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 46200359 46420659 46460938 47241025 48090930 48880657 48690348 47350259 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 07:48:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 02:48:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506210759.j5L7xEbl021464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210758 NDZ000-MTZ000-210930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT / NWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508... VALID 210758Z - 210930Z CLUSTER OF STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF MT TOWARD NWRN ND ATTM. COMBINATION OF MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SELY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO FUEL PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPROACHING THE NERN MT / NWRN ND BORDER ATTM. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT WLY WINDS AT MID LEVELS AND FAVORABLE SELY INFLOW...STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ORGANIZED / PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED NW-SE FROM ERN MT INTO WRN SD. WITH INCREASINGLY-LESS UNSTABLE AIR WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS NWRN ND...WOULD EXPECT NERN-MOST STORMS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...THUS POSSIBLY PROMOTING AN EFFECTIVE TURN OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION TOWARD THE SE WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... 48110538 48540323 48360223 47840200 47060220 46560262 46510326 47230479 47640536 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 08:41:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 03:41:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506210852.j5L8qZfI012786@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210850 SDZ000-NDZ000-211015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1412 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL ND / N CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210850Z - 211015Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 508...AND SHOULD SPREAD SEWD WITH TIME. NEW WW ISSUANCE ANTICIPATED. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BOW ECHO EVOLVING ACROSS NWRN ND ATTM...WHERE SELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS INDICATED. THOUGH INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT INTO CENTRAL ND...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE A SEWD TURN WITH TIME INTO LOW LEVEL JET / ALONG GRADIENT OF NW-SE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN MT / WRN SD. WITH COLD POOL BECOMING INCREASINGLY-WELL DEVELOPED AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 47680274 48330193 47460041 46379934 44950021 45030165 46040288 46700324 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 11:22:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 06:22:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506211133.j5LBXBIU013264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211132 NDZ000-SDZ000-211300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1413 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S CENTRAL ND / NWRN INTO CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509... VALID 211132Z - 211300Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WW...AND APPEARS TO BE INCREASING S OF WW. NEW WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED INTO PARTS OF NWRN / CENTRAL SD. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NRN PORTION OF BOW ECHO WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL ND. MEANWHILE...UPDRAFTS REMAIN INTENSE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF LINE / ACROSS SWRN ND...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE SE APPARENT OVER THE PAST HOUR. WITH GRADIENT ALONG NERN PORTIONS OF INSTABILITY AXIS EVIDENT ACROSS NWRN AND INTO CENTRAL SD AND SELY LOW-LEVEL JET PERSISTING ACROSS THIS AREA...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE / MOVE SSEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO NWRN AND N CENTRAL SD. WITH STORMS LIKELY TO REMAIN LINEARLY ORGANIZED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46420313 46780192 47330111 46919968 46429903 44659871 43969934 43940074 45330366 46480372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 16:06:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 11:06:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506211617.j5LGHdeT028274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211616 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211615 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-211815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1414 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ALABAMA EWD TO SOUTH CAROLINA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211615Z - 211815Z COOL UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WEAK UPPER LOW SWRN VA SWWD ACROSS NRN GA INTO CENTRAL AL. HEATING OF THE MOIST AIR MASS S AND E OF SRN APPALACHIANS WILL QUICKLY ELIMINATE ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AND RELATIVELY COOL LAPSE RATES...HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE OVERALL SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE HAIL EVENTS AND BRIEF STRONG DOWNBURST. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR WATCH ISSUANCE. ..HALES.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN... 34008641 34338553 34308489 34348446 34568240 35008191 34988047 34748003 34217990 33438012 32658086 32158224 32098498 32638628 33238670 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 18:34:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 13:34:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506211845.j5LIj4Vx025130@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211844 COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-212045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1415 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 211844Z - 212045Z STRONG HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO MID/UPPER 80S ALONG WITH MUCAPES TO 1500 J/KG ALONG FRONT RANGE SUPPORTING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ALSO WWD MOVING BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM VICINITY OF DEN SSEWD TO ERN EL PASO COUNTY IS LEADING EDGE OF A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AS THIS WWD MOVING AIRMASS REACHES FRONT RANGE THE NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A FEW STORMS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH ALSO LOCAL DOWNBURSTS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ..HALES.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 40820539 41270501 41250418 40800350 40380332 39500310 38780326 37910347 37750393 37800432 37780504 39560535 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 19:17:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 14:17:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506211928.j5LJSPwx020363@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211927 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211927 NDZ000-MTZ000-212130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MONTANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211927Z - 212130Z WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR. SELY FLOW IS SPREADING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD ACROSS NRN MT WITH 60 DEWPOINTS HAVING REACHED AS FAR W AS CTB AND GTF. WITH THE STRONG HEATING AS RIDGE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH FROM PAC NW...THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG. WHILE THE EFFECTS OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AN INFLUENCE ON THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO UNTIL LATER...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A SEVERE STORM HAS ALREADY FORMED JUST N OF NERN MT BORDER...LIKELY ON NWD MOVING WARM FRONT. THE MT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WITH 40-50 KTS OF SHEAR ALONG WITH A VEERING PROFILE...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY AS STORMS MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE PLAINS OF NRN MT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL INITIALLY BE VERY LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF THERMODYNAMICS ALONG WITH THE 50KT SHEAR SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASING THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO POSSIBLE BOW/SHORT LINES SEGMENTS. ..HALES.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... 48961326 48981116 48970983 49000807 48980402 46750413 46490714 46370898 46491030 46511220 47561282 48501318 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 20:19:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 15:19:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506212030.j5LKUXD6026042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212029 AZZ000-212300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1417 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 212029Z - 212300Z STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME ACROSS ARIZONA SETTING THE STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF VERY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON 18Z PHX SOUNDING AND T/TD SPREADS OF 60F DEGREES AT THE SURFACE...STRONG/SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE HOT DESERT VALLEYS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS VICINITY OF TUS SHOULD PROPAGATE NWWD INTO DESERT VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY AFFECT AS FAR N AS SALT RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. ..HALES.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 34931360 34731263 34341157 33931087 32951029 32340998 31361009 31421139 32431272 33291367 34301380 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 22:20:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 17:20:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506212230.j5LMUhNm029213@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212229 KSZ000-220000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1418 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 212229Z - 220000Z A THREAT MAY EXIST FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...OVER THE NEW FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KS. WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES REMNANT MCV MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS FAR NCNTRL/NE KS. AMBIENT/DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS ECNTRL KS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE/ONLY WEAKLY INHIBITED PER MODIFIED 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS INCREASE EXHIBITED IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. FAIRBURY NEB PROFILER COUPLED WITH TOPEKA WSR-88D VAD DEPICTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS. IN SPITE OF THIS WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...LIMITED ORGANIZATION OF MCV AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT A FEW PULSE-TYPE STRONG WIND GUST/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EPISODES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 39539890 39749814 39349585 38229577 37839618 37619705 38009844 38299873 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 23:28:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 18:28:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506212338.j5LNch56027592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212337 MTZ000-220130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510... VALID 212337Z - 220130Z DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS MOVING NEWD THROUGH NWRN MT AND EVENTUALLY N CNTRL MT MUCH OF THE EVENING. EARLY THIS EVENING A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN MT NWWD THROUGH NWRN MT E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXISTS N OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TO ITS S. FLOW IN THE 850MB TO 700 MB LAYER IS FORECAST TO VEER AND STRENGTHEN OVER WRN MT LATER THIS EVENING...ENHANCING THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. THE INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE SW...AND THIS MAY ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. ..DIAL.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... 46130927 46041130 46291349 48761407 48870953 47610879 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 00:22:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 19:22:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506220033.j5M0X4Tc018360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220032 MTZ000-220200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 220032Z - 220200Z STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD TOWARD ERN MT. SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AS THE STORMS CONTINUE NEWD. PORTIONS OF ERN MT ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAVE ADVECTED INTO ERN MT N OF A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN THROUGH ERN MT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THE 00Z RAOB FROM GLASGOW SHOWS AROUND 4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WEAK CAP AND 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SUGGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ERN MT. WARM ADVECTION IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER ERN MT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND STRENGTHENS...WHICH MIGHT PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE STORMS. A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MID-LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...ONCE STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED AS SUPERCELLS AND OR BOW ECHOES...THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE DESPITE THE INCREASING INHIBITION. ..DIAL.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 45610546 46140680 46590838 48200893 48870807 48320620 46950476 45940464 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 03:23:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 22:23:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506220333.j5M3Xga8030870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220332 MTZ000-220430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH N CNTRL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510... VALID 220332Z - 220430Z THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MIGHT PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS FROM SWRN THROUGH N CNTRL MT. OVERALL DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER WW. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN MT THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AND STRENGTHEN OVER WRN MT IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED STORMS MIGHT REMAIN SEVERE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND THE EXPIRATION OF WW 510. HOWEVER...INCREASING DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL AND COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR A LONGER TERMED SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO... 47321018 46021288 48321380 48891209 48710947 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 04:17:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 23:17:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506220427.j5M4RgLP018289@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220427 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220426 MTZ000-220530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1422 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511... VALID 220426Z - 220530Z POTENTIAL FOR NEW SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE ON THE DECREASE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...AND WW 511 MIGHT BE CANCELED EARLY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC AND ETA SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNDERGOING SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AND WARMING ABOVE THE SURFACE...INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE 1 TO 3 KM LAYER. THIS AND COOLING NEAR THE SURFACE IS RESULTING IN STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. GIVEN THE RAPID DEMISE OF EARLIER STORMS OVER SERN MT AS THEY MOVED INTO STRONG INSTABILITY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES INDEED APPEAR TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED. MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH WRN MT MIGHT SPREAD INTO NERN MT LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE APPARENT STRONG CAP IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE THAT NEW BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP IS NOT HIGH. ..DIAL.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 46290433 46150620 46250836 48770875 49040680 48830443 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 07:06:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 02:06:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506220716.j5M7GmLD015774@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220715 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-220815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT / WRN ND / NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511... VALID 220715Z - 220815Z STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS WW...AND WITH WATCH SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 21/08Z...NEW WW NOT EXPECTED ATTM AS A RESULT. MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS ERN MT ATTM...WHERE SLY / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAVORABLY STRONG...AND UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING NEWD ACROSS WRN MT BASED ON LATEST WV IMAGERY AND MODEL FORECASTS. DESPITE THESE FACTORS...STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO INITIATE ACROSS WW AREA THIS EVENING. NEW STORM HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ROSEBUD COUNTY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO -- AND BRIEFLY PULSED IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...STORM HAS SINCE WEAKENED...AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS INDICATED ELSEWHERE. SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION...THOUGH CLEARLY STORMS ARE BEING SUPPRESSED -- POSSIBLY DUE TO CAPPING / DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE AS INDICATED BY NAM / RUC PFCS. ATTM...WILL OPT TO ALLOW WW TO EXPIRE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR NEW SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH -- WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW REISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 49030897 48960227 44770308 45760854 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 19:10:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 14:10:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506221921.j5MJLSXG016143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221920 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221920 NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-222115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NJ/CT/SE PA/MD/DE/SE NY AND NYC METRO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221920Z - 222115Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INTO THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY INTENSIFY ACROSS SE PA INTO SRN NJ AND DELMARVA REGION THROUGH 21Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA FEATURES STORM CLUSTERS SPREADING SEWD ACROSS WRN CT/NRN NJ ATTM...WHICH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GREATER NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGESTS AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE AMIDST AMBIENT WARM/RELATIVELY WELL MIXED AIRMASS. IN SPITE OF THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODEST PER LOCAL WSR-88D VADS AS DEPICTED BY 15-20 KTS OF NLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW KM/S. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION GIVEN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AND SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE...IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE PA INTO SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH 21Z. OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MARGINAL/ISOLD SUCH THAT A SEVERE WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 41367469 41527294 40937267 39797448 39127605 39407833 40367833 40967726 41177616 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 19:58:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 14:58:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506222009.j5MK9WtH016660@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222008 NCZ000-VAZ000-222215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1425 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...VA/NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222008Z - 222215Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN VA INTO NC. A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION OF VA/NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS IN ACCORDANCE WITH MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS SUGGESTS AMBIENT AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG. IN SPITE OF ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /20-25 KTS OR LESS/ AMIDST LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. OWING TO MID 80S TO LOW 90S F SFC TEMPS...WELL-MIXED AIRMASS/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NEVERTHELESS SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... 38547865 38247708 35727666 35227737 35187905 35798037 36558044 37727990 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 20:41:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 15:41:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506222052.j5MKqRU6010846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222050 MTZ000-222245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222050Z - 222245Z WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR STRONG HEATING HAS ELIMINATED CAP ACROSS SWRN MT AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER HIGH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F...MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG... STORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE NEWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH 40-50 KT OF SWLY SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT WITH STORMS AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ..HALES.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... 46251279 47101287 47851193 48221138 48840948 48840775 46670647 45670879 45410982 45471156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 21:25:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 16:25:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506222136.j5MLZp9m004328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222134 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-222330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0434 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN MO/WCNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222134Z - 222330Z CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ANY ISOLD DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN MO AND PERHAPS WCNTRL IL. GIVEN EXPECTED RATHER ISOLD NATURE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONTINUING TO MONITOR GRADUALLY EVOLVING/DEEPENING CU FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN MO/WCNTRL IL...WITH ONE ISOLD STORM HAVING ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SE IA INTO IOWA AND KEOKUK COUNTIES AS OF 2115Z. AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG/WEST OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE AIRMASS IS HOT/MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE. RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR 21Z AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG -- HIGHEST ACROSS IA -- AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CONV INHIBITION. LATHROP MO/SLATER IA PROFILERS SUGGESTS APPROX 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY/WEAK INHIBITION AND ADEQUATE ORGANIZATIONAL SHEAR...PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE/WEAK BACKGROUND DYNAMIC ASCENT SHOULD KEEP DEVELOPMENT RATHER ISOLD IN NATURE. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 41959500 42419370 42529207 42069153 40559046 38989114 39729399 40939475 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 22:24:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 17:24:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506222234.j5MMYfCE032563@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222233 WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-222330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1428 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN ID AND FAR NRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222233Z - 222330Z ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD INTO SRN/ERN ID AND FAR NRN UT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ID /TWIN FALLS COUNTY/ SEWD TO NWRN UT /BOX ELDER COUNTY/. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH HAD BEEN REPORTED EARLIER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN/ERN ID INTO NRN UT SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH MLCAPE DOES RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH ONGOING LINE OF STORMS MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD INTO SRN/ ERN ID AND FAR NRN UT THROUGH 23/02Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 45 DEGREES SUGGEST FURTHER ENHANCEMENT TO DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... 42251465 42561482 43621387 44191251 44251152 44201108 42621103 42011122 41451268 41051373 41901403 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 01:48:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 20:48:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506230159.j5N1xL9B021638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230158 NDZ000-MTZ000-230300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT INTO PORTIONS OF WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512... VALID 230158Z - 230300Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 512 THIS EVENING. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE EAST OF 512 INTO PORTIONS OF ERN MT AND WRN ND. 01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SWRN SASKATCHEWAN SWWD TO SWRN MT AND SRN ID...WHILE REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN WW 512 WERE NORTH OF A LINE FROM JUST S OF GTF TO MLS. AIR MASS NORTH OF THIS LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY OBSERVED EWD INTO ND. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MT AND MAY SPREAD INTO WRN ND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE THREAT IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ENEWD OVER THIS REGION AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD FROM ID AND A SECOND TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL INTO NERN MT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..PETERS.. 06/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... 45501311 49011012 48980125 48720084 47630114 46440297 46130481 45480762 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 03:37:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 22:37:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506230348.j5N3m6oB002696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230347 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230347 NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-230445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512... VALID 230347Z - 230445Z THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NERN MT THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING IS RESULTING IN A SLOW STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NERN MT TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL BE GREATEST INTO NERN MT WHERE AN ORGANIZED BOW STRUCTURE WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS PER REGIONAL RADARS EXTENDED FROM NRN PHILLIPS COUNTY TO NWRN VALLEY COUNTY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS BOW WILL REACH THE NERN MT/CANADA BORDER IN DANIEL AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES AROUND 0630Z. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS STORMS OVER THIS REGION MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A NEW WW SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED TO THE EAST OF WW 512. ..PETERS.. 06/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 45481095 46581135 47321156 48981003 48970415 48920372 47300428 46400638 45000721 44991049 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 19:04:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 14:04:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506231915.j5NJFRsi032542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231913 MNZ000-NDZ000-232015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231913Z - 232015Z ...WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND INTO MN... BROAD BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS ND AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS ROOTED ABOVE FAIRLY STRONG CAP THAT IS ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...AND MID LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED FROM WELLS COUNTY ND INTO RAMSEY COUNTY ND...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...YET IT/S NOT APPARENT WHETHER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AIDING THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE OCCURRING...LOCAL WEAKENING OF CAP INVOF THIS CONVECTION MAY ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE UPDRAFTS. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIALLY MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AS LOWER-MID 70S SFC DEW POINTS ARE OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM. ..DARROW.. 06/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48979542 47419639 46749816 47509946 48879844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 20:38:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 15:38:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506232049.j5NKn9bY018948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232048 WYZ000-MTZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MT...NRN/CNTRL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232048Z - 232245Z ...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS... SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN MT INTO NWRN WY. THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING ENEWD WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...NEAR DRY ADIABATIC...TOWARD THE LOWER PLAINS REGION OF NERN WY. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SURVIVE WITHIN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM. AS A RESULT...STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD GENERATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ..DARROW.. 06/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW... 45820831 44710606 42810619 42970840 45251085 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 20:40:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 15:40:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506232051.j5NKpA0Z019920@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232050 NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AZ INTO UT/WRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232050Z - 232245Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR ISOLD DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL AZ...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN AZ/UT/WRN CO. 12Z FGZ RAOB MODIFIED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 1000-1300 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE REGION...WHILE FLAGSTAFF WSR-88D VAD PORTRAYS 20-25 KTS OF SWLY FLOW ABOVE 3 KM. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...ISOLD SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS GIVEN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ..GUYER.. 06/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...VEF... 34371226 36311375 38901367 40021085 39410738 37130690 35410851 33770925 33901081 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 23:02:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 18:02:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506232312.j5NNCqsG028414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232311 MNZ000-NDZ000-240015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN ND INTO NRN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 513... VALID 232311Z - 240015Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR THE REST OF NRN MN. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ALONG WITH HAIL AS A STORM CLUSTER ALONG THE ERN ND/MN BORDER AREA AND FURTHER N OVER NRN MN MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MN. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY WITH BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH AN AREA OF PRONOUNCED DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS ERN ND ATTM. AIR MASS OVER ERN ND AND NRN MN REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...BUT WEAKEST CINH PER OBJECTIVE DATA IS LOCATED ALONG THE NRN TIER OF MN COUNTIES WITH THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A GUST FRONT EXTENDED 10-15 MILES ESEWD AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW LOCATED FROM TRAILL COUNTY ND TO PENNINGTON COUNTY MN. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER ROSEAU AND LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES IN NRN MN. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO NRN-NERN MN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS /70+ F/ AND STRONG LOW- LEVEL SHEAR DOWNSTREAM OVER NRN MN PER DLH VAD SUGGESTS THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. ..PETERS.. 06/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 46849768 48869630 49329490 48659261 48139168 47139268 46679437 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 00:42:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 19:42:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506240053.j5O0rWu1004755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240052 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-240215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1436 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/WCNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514... VALID 240052Z - 240215Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE WATCH 514 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z. ISOLD DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF WW 514...NAMELY ACROSS WRN/WCNTRL NEB. 00Z LBF RAOB DEPICTS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG AMIDST DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO 700 MB...WITH 1500+ J/KG DCAPE AND CORRESPONDING STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER LIMITED VERTICAL SHEAR /25 KTS OR LESS PER RED WILLOW NEB PROFILER/ HAS LEAD TO PROPENSITY FOR STORMS TO CLUSTER. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE WANING ACROSS FAR SW NEB/NW KS. FURTHER NORTH...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW 514 EITHER VIA MODEST CONVERGENCE INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...OR PERHAPS AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES LATER THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU... 42610198 42990048 42999876 40439932 39529997 39740126 40490188 41140248 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 01:08:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 20:08:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506240118.j5O1IYE0015126@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240117 MNZ000-WIZ000-240215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1437 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0817 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 513...515... VALID 240117Z - 240215Z STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE A LIKELY THREAT ACROSS KOOCHICHING COUNTY AND EWD INTO NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY THROUGH 02Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A BOW STRUCTURE EXTENDING FROM ERN KOOCHICHING COUNTY SWWD TO NWRN ITASCA COUNTY AND MOVING TO THE ENE AT 45-55 KT. GIVEN THIS FORWARD SPEED...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY EWD ACROSS NERN MN...ESPECIALLY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY THROUGH 02Z. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NWRN MN FROM BELTRAMI TO BECKER COUNTIES /SERN WW 513/...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENEWD INTO W/SW PORTION OF WW 515 DURING THE NEXT HOUR...WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL. ..PETERS.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 48779505 48799103 48178980 47958961 46969097 46399100 46349472 46519591 47449581 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 04:32:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 23:32:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506240443.j5O4hAvM027213@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240442 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240442 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-240545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TO NERN NEB/SRN-SERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514... VALID 240442Z - 240545Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN VALID PORTION OF WW 514 UNTIL 06Z...THOUGH GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NRN-NERN NEB/SRN-SERN SD OVERNIGHT. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT...IF STORM INTENSITY WITH THIS NEW ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN SD SWWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EARLIER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SWRN NEB WAS TRACKING N/NE INTO CENTRAL NEB. VWP DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INDICATED A 40 KT SLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB. WV IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWED ONE OR TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND SRN SD PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THE CURRENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS NEW CONVECTION WAS LOCATED ALONG/N OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE GIVEN FAVORABLE WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF LLJ. MODERATELY UNSTABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD... 40379921 40300041 41150147 41240202 41150256 42990199 43440059 44539901 44719740 44599589 43569511 42159569 41409831 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 15:28:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 10:28:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506241539.j5OFdwpe018225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241539 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241539 MIZ000-WIZ000-241715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1440 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF WI....NRN LOWER MI AND THE U.P. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516... VALID 241539Z - 241715Z ...ISOLATED STRONG STORM WEAKENING IN NRN WI...WHILE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS... A LONG LIVED SEVERE STORM MOVED THROUGH NRN WI THIS MORNING...BUT HAD WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST HOUR AS IT APPROACHES FOREST COUNTY IN NRN WI. DESPITE THE CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS WI... THIS STORM HAD BEEN ABLE TO FORCE PARCELS THROUGH INVERSION... THOUGH THIS PROCESS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURE WARM TOWARD 90 DEGREES THE INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACED BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE NRN WI STORM...WHERE A CLOUD FREE ENVIRONMENT IS ALLOWING FOR INTENSE HEATING AND MLCAPE VALUES TO CLIMB NEAR 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL BE HAIL...BUT THE WIND THREAT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..IMY.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX... 44369081 44708964 45828920 46158859 46488775 46458691 45648660 44528775 43899087 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 17:44:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 12:44:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506241756.j5OHu3Td004176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241754 MIZ000-WIZ000-241900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1441 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WI...NRN LOWER MI AND THE U.P. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516... VALID 241754Z - 241900Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WI...NRN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER MI PENINSULA UNTIL 22Z. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MI PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN WRN WI AT 17Z...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE FRONT. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES HAS REDUCED THE THREAT FOR SEVERE ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP IN ERN WI ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE SURFACE BASED CU ATTM...SO CAP IS STILL IN PLACE DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. THE CAP IS WEAKER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN... WHICH HAS ALLOWED CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MLCAPES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD AID IN THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE AS THEY SPREAD ENEWD. ..IMY.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...ARX... 46198712 46688607 46858493 46728403 44888408 44428771 43939077 44239092 44538942 45258791 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 18:54:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 13:54:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506241906.j5OJ6KV3011290@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241906 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241905 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-MTZ000-242030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/ERN WY...SCENTRAL/SERN MT...SWRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241905Z - 242030Z ISO-SCT SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SEVERAL BOUNDARIES AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER ERN/NCENTRAL WY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT THAT A WW IS ANTICIPATED BY 20Z. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER ERN/NCENTRAL WY FROM JUST WEST OF CYS TO NEAR DGW. ADDITIONAL CU HAS BEGUN TO FORM ALONG STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE NWWD INTO NERN WY/SERN MT. MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...RELATIVELY HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION...LCL/S GENERALLY OVER 1200 M...SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. CONVECTION OVER NERN/SWRN SD WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A SEWD MOTION TO SUPPORT GREATEST SVR THREAT AS AIRMASS OVER WCENTRAL SD REMAINS COOL/STABLE. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 41010512 42080613 43820841 44010896 45060905 45660807 45640639 45420570 44380415 43990371 42830268 41720287 41120309 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 19:09:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 14:09:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506241920.j5OJKcGI019063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241920 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241919 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-242045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED....IA...NWRN IL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241919Z - 242045Z SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS IN THE IOWA AREA. WW WILL BE REQUIRED ONCE IT BECOMES EVIDENT THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE CLOSE TO DEVELOPING. AT 19Z...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NRN WI SWWD INTO EXTREME SERN MN AND NWRN IA AT 18Z. CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN STRONG HEATING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. OMA 18Z SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 800 MB...BUT THE CAP WAS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER ON THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING. SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN NRN NEB SHIFTING ENEWD TOWARD NWRN IA. LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE PLUS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND NON-CLOUDY AREAS SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE 20-22Z TIME PERIOD WHERE THE CAP APPEARS TO BE WEAK. ALSO...CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ABOUT 30-50 MI NORTH OF DSM. GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF IA...STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IA AND THEN SPREAD ESEWD. ..IMY.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42359586 43059402 43669201 43839023 43438945 42578935 41579022 40999125 40819169 40849331 40869484 41119556 41769635 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 19:29:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 14:29:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506241941.j5OJf1EU031554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241940 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241940 MIZ000-WIZ000-242015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1445 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WI...NRN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516... VALID 241940Z - 242015Z THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE LESSENING ACROSS WW AREA AND COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD ACROSS WI AND THE WRN PORTION OF THE UPPER MI PENINSULA. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS WEAK AS WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. ACROSS NRN MI...THE ALPENA 18Z SOUNDING SHOWED THE LOW LEVELS HAD DRIED OUT AND THE SOUNDING WAS CAPPED. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WW 516 ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA AND SWRN WI AND NORTHEAST IN SWRN ONTARIO...SO WW 516 MAY BE CANCELED SHORTLY. ..IMY.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...ARX... 44468946 46298638 46748406 44838402 43989009 43929099 44309100 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 20:51:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 15:51:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506242103.j5OL3BYV012552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242102 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-242230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1446 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NCENTRAL KS...SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242102Z - 242230Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH MAIN THREATS BEING DMMG WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/TROUGH ACROSS SWRN NEB SWWD INTO WCENTRAL KS/ECENTRAL CO WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. STRENGTHENING TRENDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG/ AND LITTLE CINH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND THUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE. GIVEN HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 40430027 40450151 39730216 38560189 38230179 38200077 38819926 39299886 40159946 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 22:05:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 17:05:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506242216.j5OMGXvX016079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242215 NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-242345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SCENTRAL/SERN MT...NEB PANHANDLE/FAR SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517... VALID 242215Z - 242345Z THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE WW AREA FOR THE 2 HOURS. A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF WRN NEB/SWRN SD IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS NWWD FROM WCENTRAL NEB INTO NCENTRAL/NERN WY...SERN/SCENTRAL MT. CONVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN THE DRIER AIR OVER NWRN WY/SWRN MT SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER ERN WY/SCENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. FARTHER SE...SVR STORMS OVER SERN/ECENTRAL WY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SVR AS THEY MOVE OUT OF WW 517 INTO WRN NEBRASKA/FAR SWRN SD OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND MOVE INTO THETA-E RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A NEW WW MAY BE OVER THIS AREA EAST OF WW 517 BY 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 41020700 45770911 45720478 43630281 41010021 41010128 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 22:11:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 17:11:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506242222.j5OMMxYV018499@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242222 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-242245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI AND IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518... VALID 242222Z - 242245Z NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE REST OF SRN WI. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR GRB SWWD TO SWRN WI AND CENTRAL IA. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...SUFFICIENT SHEAR APPEARS TO EXIST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 518...AND LIKELY EWD INTO THE REST OF SRN WI. ..PETERS.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... 40529521 42549523 44258974 44558797 44298754 42498782 42208980 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 22:16:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 17:16:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506242227.j5OMRfus020629@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242215 NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-242345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SCENTRAL/SERN MT...NEB PANHANDLE/FAR SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517... VALID 242215Z - 242345Z THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE WW AREA FOR THE 2 HOURS. A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF WRN NEB/SWRN SD IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS NWWD FROM WCENTRAL NEB INTO NCENTRAL/NERN WY...SERN/SCENTRAL MT. CONVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN THE DRIER AIR OVER NWRN WY/SWRN MT SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER ERN WY/SCENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. FARTHER SE...SVR STORMS OVER SERN/ECENTRAL WY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SVR AS THEY MOVE OUT OF WW 517 INTO WRN NEBRASKA/FAR SWRN SD OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND MOVE INTO THETA-E RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A NEW WW MAY BE OVER THIS AREA EAST OF WW 517 BY 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 41020700 45770911 45720478 43630281 41010021 41010128  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 22:21:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 17:21:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506242232.j5OMWmvZ022508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242222 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-242245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI AND IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518... VALID 242222Z - 242245Z NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE REST OF SRN WI. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR GRB SWWD TO SWRN WI AND CENTRAL IA. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...SUFFICIENT SHEAR APPEARS TO EXIST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 518...AND LIKELY EWD INTO THE REST OF SRN WI. ..PETERS.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... 40529521 42549523 44258974 44558797 44298754 42498782 42208980  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 00:11:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 19:11:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250023.j5P0N8aF029600@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250022 MIZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1449 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250022Z - 250045Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NRN LAKE MI SWD ALONG THE LAKE AND THEN INLAND OVER SERN WI /25 NW MKE/. MUCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG WAS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI. LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /ABOVE 650 MB/ WILL RESULT IN SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF MID LEVEL JET TO THE NORTH AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI. ..PETERS.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45878502 45688386 45328351 44408341 43418392 43088494 43058630 43788662 44838632 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 00:21:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 19:21:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250033.j5P0XM9r000652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250032 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-250200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1450 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NCENTRAL WY...SCENTRAL/SERN MT...WRN SD...WRN NEB AND FAR NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517...520... VALID 250032Z - 250200Z THREAT FOR SVR WILL BE MOST FOCUSED OVER FAR ERN/NRN PORTIONS OF WW 517 INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 520 THROUGH 02Z. OVERALL THREAT OVER WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF WW 517 APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT AREA WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED IN UPCOMING STATUS MESSAGES. ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF SVR STORMS EXTENDING FROM SERN MT SEWD INTO WRN NEB/FAR NERN CO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EWD FROM 15-20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO THE WRN PORTION OF WW 520. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER ERN WY...BUT AMT OF CIRRUS CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING MUCH OF ERN WY SUGGEST THAT SVR THREAT WAS DIMINISHING IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH...SVR TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE OVER NCENTRAL WY/SCENTRAL MT. WITH THICK CIRRUS SHIELD OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA PRESENTLY...STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DELAYED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REMOVAL FROM WW 517 PRIOR TO WW EXPIRATION TIME /03Z/ IF LACK OF SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES BEYOND 02Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 41040579 42410623 43520674 44360785 44770862 45800904 45790485 45890195 40430022 40360274 41000316 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 01:14:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 20:14:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250125.j5P1PobD020290@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250125 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250125 WIZ000-ILZ000-250230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0825 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 519... VALID 250125Z - 250230Z SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SERN WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A WIND GUST. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A STORM OVER SRN OZAUKEE AND NRN MILWAUKEE COUNTIES IN SERN WI...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAKENING STORMS APPROACHING THE WRN PORTION OF WW 519 FROM SWRN WI. THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED...GIVEN THAT THE GUST FRONT FROM EARLIER STORMS HAS MOVED SWD INTO FAR SERN WI AND FAR NWRN IL. LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE THE AIR MASS ACROSS SERN WI. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS OVER NERN IA/SWRN WI TRACK EWD THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..PETERS.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43868974 43948771 42488773 42378976 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 01:32:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 20:32:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250143.j5P1hnqY027201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250143 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250142 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1452 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0842 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/FAR SERN SD/MUCH OF IA/SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518... VALID 250142Z - 250215Z NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR ERN NEB/FAR SERN SD EWD ACROSS NRN IA. THIS NEW WW WOULD LIKELY REPLACE MUCH OF WW 518. 01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATED STORMS OVER CENTRAL IA MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...GIVEN THAT THEY ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WAS TRACKING SWD THROUGH CENTRAL IA NEAR THE DSM AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NWRN TO NERN IA APPEAR TO BE ALONG/N OF THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER NWRN IA BEING AIDED BY STRENGTHENING LLJ NOSING INTO ERN NEB. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER ERN NEB INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TO NRN IA OVERNIGHT AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST BY SHORT TERM MODELS. MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 35-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..PETERS.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 44238980 42198975 40529521 40619664 41849837 42999859 43459757 43609365 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 03:21:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 22:21:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250332.j5P3WolU002052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250328 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-250530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1453 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / SWRN ND / EXTREME NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250328Z - 250530Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING...BUT AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT EXPECTED. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH 30-35 KT SELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE LIFT ALONG WARM FRONT FROM SERN MT INTO SWRN ND / NWRN SD THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WHILE AIR MASS NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS STABLE...ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS OF 10-12 G/KG OBSERVED ON RAP SOUNDING INDICATE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WITHIN INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NWD. MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT AND RESULTANT 50-60 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS SUGGEST ELEVATED SEVERE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF WARM FRONT ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE STABLE. ..JEWELL.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 47700222 46270198 45650374 45370808 45800847 46850814 47230599 48030398  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 03:58:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 22:58:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250409.j5P49oLp015980@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250409 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250408 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-250515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1454 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD AND WRN//CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 520... VALID 250408Z - 250515Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL NEB BY 05Z. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM SWRN SD TO SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AND THEN ENEWD TO IA. WELL DEFINED BOW STRUCTURE INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADARS EXTENDED FROM SWRN BENNETT COUNTY SD TO NRN BOX BUTTE COUNTY NEB...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO WRN/CENTRAL NEB. 45-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ALSO AID IN MAINTAINING STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FARTHER N ACROSS WRN SD...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH GIVEN INFLOW OF A MORE STABLE AIR MASS INTO THIS AREA. ..PETERS.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ... 45950505 45920211 43120086 42799936 40999930 40870022 40430024 40360280 40480329 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 04:53:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 23:53:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250505.j5P551Ae002681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250504 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250504 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1455 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL IA/NRN AND ERN NEB/SE SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521... VALID 250504Z - 250630Z HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS NRN IA...IN AN AREA 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM SUX TO BREMER COUNTY IA. 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL IA INTO SRN NEB. WAA ALONG NOSE OF 35 KT SSWLY LLJ PER VWP DATA POINTING INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS NERN-ERN NEB/FAR SERN SD AND WRN IA OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INFLOW OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN EWD ACROSS NRN IA...WITH 1.3 TO 1.75 PW VALUES SUPPORTING AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. ..PETERS.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41019919 42799916 43619230 41719231 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 06:58:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 01:58:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250709.j5P79fM5015204@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250708 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-250815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1456 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL KS AND S CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522... VALID 250708Z - 250815Z THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE REMAINING PARTS OF WW 522 DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY GOOD. WW 522 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED SOON. EARLY THIS MORNING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL IA SWWD THROUGH S CNTRL NEB INTO NWRN KS. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY ZONE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PERSIST FROM WRN NEB EWD THROUGH IA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ENHANCING LIFT N OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH PRIMARY ZONE OF LIFT REMAINING N OF WW 522 AND PRESENCE OF ONLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER S CNTRL NEB AND N CNTRL KS APPEARS LOW. ..DIAL.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...BOU... 41839478 41269757 40630083 40930266 41870183 42689512 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 08:12:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 03:12:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250823.j5P8NuNf011118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250823 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1457 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB THROUGH CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521... VALID 250823Z - 250900Z THE PRIMARY THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED TO HEAVY RAIN FROM NERN NEB THROUGH CNTRL IA. WW 521 WILL BE CANCELLED AT 0845Z. A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING...MAINTAINING LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION N OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL IA SWWD THROUGH SERN NEB INTO NWRN KS. LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW 521. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT. HOWEVER...THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME BACKBUILDING ALONG THE SWRN FLANKS OF THE MCS OVER IA...AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN EWD WITH SLOW SWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD POOL. RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN LIKELY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..DIAL.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 42029389 41249826 42069858 42679746 42749356 42429236 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 17:32:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 12:32:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506251744.j5PHiDmH018629@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251743 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-251945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO..SRN/CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL IND...WRN/CENTRAL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251743Z - 251945Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. GIVEN LACK OF ORGANIZED THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG/ AXIS EXTENDING FROM STL METRO AREA/SERN MO ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN IL INTO WRN OH. DESPITE VERY LITTLE DEEP LAYER FLOW DUE TO PROXIMITY OF REGION TO UPPER RIDGE AXIS...MODERATELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-8 TO -9 DEG C AT 500 MB/ WILL FAVOR STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE GREATEST IN COVERAGE ALONG A WEAKLY DEFINED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF STL NEWD TO CENTRAL OH. GIVEN THE MULTICELLULAR NATURE OF CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION EXPECTED ON THE MESO-SCALE AIDING IN A MARGINAL SVR THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 41098287 40888516 40878619 40498829 40048943 39159021 38639074 38219074 37669051 37848925 39188595 39918224 40438179 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 17:45:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 12:45:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506251757.j5PHvI0p024239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251756 MTZ000-251900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1459 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251756Z - 251900Z A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NERN MT THIS AFTERNOON AND AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. HOWEVER... MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. AT 17Z...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR LWT WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SERN MT INTO SD. SELY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE ADVECTING DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWWD WITH MID/UPPER 50S COMMON ACROSS NERN MT. ALSO...THE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND OVERLAID WITH 35-40 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOP WEST OF LWT AND ITS RAPID NEWD MOTION SUGGESTS THE STORM IS ELEVATED. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CAP IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. STORMS THAT DO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS...WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ..IMY.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47661049 48371004 48970942 48950782 48620585 47180592 46850716 46890947 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 17:51:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 12:51:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506251803.j5PI30Tc026264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251802 UTZ000-WYZ000-252000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1460 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UTAH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251802Z - 252000Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SRN UT WHERE HEATING COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING ARE OCCURRING AS STRONG SWLY FLOW SPREADS NEWD ACROSS UT. DEVELOPING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE EVAPORATION FROM THE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS THRU THE AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND DEVELOP INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS THEN A SEVERE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. ..HALES.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... 37741257 40311363 41721291 40781050 38880962 37711060 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 18:23:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 13:23:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506251835.j5PIZMbS008063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251834 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-252000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1461 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ID AND SWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251834Z - 252000Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN ID/SWRN MT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. HIGH LEVEL JET MAX LOCATED OVER ERN NV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SERN ID LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS UT AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. MLCAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY INDICATES SOME HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY. ..IMY.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 45101558 46421497 47431438 47771303 47451142 45021100 42201095 41951221 42621475 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 18:31:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 13:31:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506251842.j5PIgsou011950@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251842 COZ000-NMZ000-252015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1462 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251842Z - 252015Z TSTMS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS OF NERN NM/SCENTRAL CO WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN NM/SERN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF THE FRONT RANGE AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ECENTRAL CO. ISOLATED SVR WINDS/HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS NM. THIS FEATURE WAS SAMPLED BY THE ABQ VWP WHICH IN THE LAST 1-2 HOURS SHOWED 30-35 KTS IN THE 3-5 KM LAYER...AROUND 10 KTS GREATER THAN THE 15Z RUC OR 12Z NAM/GFS. CONVECTION THAT HAD DEVELOPED RELATIVELY EARLY OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVER NERN NM/SERN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS LITTLE CINH REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVELS REMAINS SOMEWHAT BACKED. GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE CLOUD LAYER... AND MODERATE WIND FIELDS...CONVECTION MAY REMAIN LINEARLY ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT. GIVEN ONLY MODERATE INSTABILITY...MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...A MORE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR GREATER ORGANIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 35570539 37030503 38210479 39070429 39870332 39730238 39310208 38310214 37240290 35460376 35340445 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 19:29:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 14:29:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506251941.j5PJf4vJ003504@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251940 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251940 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-252145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1463 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NY...NRN VT/NRN NH AND MUCH OF ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251940Z - 252145Z SCT TSTMS OVER SRN QUEBEC CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD AROUND 25 KTS INTO WRN/NRN ME...AND POSSIBLY NERN NY/NRN VT/NRN NH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL. CONVECTION ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SAMPLED BY BURLINGTON VT...AND CARIBOU MAINE WILL SUPPORT SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE MODERATE WIND FIELDS AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PROBABLE. RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL OFFSET MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL MITIGATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ALTHOUGH WRN/NRN ME IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE ISOLATED SVR THREAT...RECENT TRENDS IN CONVECTIVE LINE MOTION FROM WNW SUGGESTS THAT FAR NERN NY/NRN VT AND NRN NH MAY ALSO HAVE SOME SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... 47506914 46077024 45387090 45097161 45037296 45037339 44977406 44747422 44397387 44157312 44207212 44367110 44417044 44786958 45086881 45446830 45956776 47086781 47326836 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 20:21:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 15:21:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506252032.j5PKWbKd025083@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252031 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-252130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1464 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL UT AND EXTREME SWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 523... VALID 252031Z - 252130Z THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL UT AND EXTREME SWRN WY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD AT 35-40 KT AS UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER ERN NV SHIFTS TOWARD SERN ID. DEEP MIX BOUNDARY LAYER IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE. DELTA UT AT 19Z REPORTED A WIND GUSTS TO 64 MPH FROM ONE OF THESE STORMS. ..IMY.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...VEF...LKN... 41791395 41901068 41690917 38410899 38131056 38121406 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 20:25:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 15:25:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506252036.j5PKaeeq026769@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252035 IAZ000-252230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 252035Z - 252230Z ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER WRN IA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AND MAY BECOME SFC BASED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/NCENTRAL IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. MID LEVEL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MCV OVER ERN NEB WILL MOVE INTO WRN AND CENTRAL IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OMA VWP AND FAIRBURY PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER WRN/CENTRAL IA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG AS SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOTED ON DSM RADAR CONTINUES TO LIFTS NWD NORTH OF I-80. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR AND WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL BE MARGINAL. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODERATE WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...IF SCT TSTMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY THEN WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.90 INCHES...THERE WILL BE A LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42959352 42949486 42489571 42099594 41849591 41489565 41249488 41199388 41209318 41379248 41859189 42279190 42989246 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 20:47:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 15:47:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506252058.j5PKwXUB003352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252057 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-252200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1466 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ID...SWRN MT AND NWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... VALID 252057Z - 252200Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS OVER NRN UT AND NERN NV WILL SHIFT NWD SERN ID INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NERN NV MOVES INTO THE AREA. OTHER STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA..ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN ID WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE PERMITTED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFYING STORMS WITH A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..IMY.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 43421432 45621360 46761270 46831113 46660900 43930997 42081090 42001438 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 20:52:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 15:52:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506252103.j5PL3hof005506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252102 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-252230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1467 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL CO...WRN KS...SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252102Z - 252230Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS OVER ECENTRAL/SERN CO WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD INTO WRN KS AND EVENTUALLY SWRN NEB OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. CONVECTION WAS INTENSIFYING OVER ECENTRAL/SERN CO AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NM. INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS SW-NE ACROSS ECENTRAL CO INTO WCENTRAL/NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD INTO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1200 J/KG...WHILE MAINTAINING THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR/WIND HAIL. OVERALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT LONGEVITY AND A MORE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 40710144 40140265 39700328 39040325 38160284 37810261 37890169 38450113 38870084 39160059 39590051 40490079 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 22:24:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 17:24:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506252236.j5PMaLx2006978@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252235 NDZ000-MTZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-260000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1468 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252235Z - 260000Z STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS EXTREME ERN WY -- SPECIFICALLY GOSHEN/NIOBRARA COUNTIES...ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WHILE MOVING INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS NEB PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SWRN SD. OTHER ACTIVITY OVER CAMPBELL COUNTY WY ALSO MAY BECOME SEVERE...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THOSE AREAS. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY CYCLONE OVER SERN MT BETWEEN SHR-BIL...WARM FRONT ESEWD ACROSS NERN TIP OF WY AND NRN-MOST BLACK HILLS. DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM DEVILS TOWER AREA SWD WITHIN 10-20 NM OF ERN WY BORDER...JUST E OF CYS AND INTO WRN WELD COUNTY CO. SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDS SEWD FROM MT LOW ACROSS JOHNSON AND CONVERSE COUNTIES WY...INTERSECTING DRYLINE JUST SW TOR...THEN SEWD TOWARD AKO. EXPECT PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN... 1. E OF DRYLINE...WHERE SFC DEW POINTS INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT TO LOW 60S F OVER NEB PANHANDLE...AND 2. NE OF SFC TROUGH...WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOST STRONGLY BACKED AND HODOGRAPHS ENLARGED. ALTHOUGH PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATES SOME FLOW WEAKNESSES IN 1-4 KM AGL LAYER...WINDS NE OF TROUGH AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PERMIT AT LEAST INTERMITTENT SUPERCELL MODE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ENHANCING LARGE HAIL THREAT. RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED OVER CENTRAL/NRN NEB PANHANDLE SHOW UP TO ABOUT 2100 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-40 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...WITH ABOUT 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARS. WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SHOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW... 45020888 49000842 48970386 45020451 45030449 45020412 44890376 44200302 42820238 41380219 41040252 40970286 40970416 41580473 42820486 43840556 44560684 44840724 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 22:30:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 17:30:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506252241.j5PMfh2x009267@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252240 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1468 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252240Z - 260015Z STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS EXTREME ERN WY -- SPECIFICALLY GOSHEN/NIOBRARA COUNTIES...ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WHILE MOVING INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS NEB PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SWRN SD. OTHER ACTIVITY OVER CAMPBELL COUNTY WY ALSO MAY BECOME SEVERE...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THOSE AREAS. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY CYCLONE OVER SERN MT BETWEEN SHR-BIL...WARM FRONT ESEWD ACROSS NERN TIP OF WY AND NRN-MOST BLACK HILLS. DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM DEVILS TOWER AREA SWD WITHIN 10-20 NM OF ERN WY BORDER...JUST E OF CYS AND INTO WRN WELD COUNTY CO. SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDS SEWD FROM MT LOW ACROSS JOHNSON AND CONVERSE COUNTIES WY...INTERSECTING DRYLINE JUST SW TOR...THEN SEWD TOWARD AKO. EXPECT PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN... 1. E OF DRYLINE...WHERE SFC DEW POINTS INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT TO LOW 60S F OVER NEB PANHANDLE...AND 2. NE OF SFC TROUGH...WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOST STRONGLY BACKED AND HODOGRAPHS ENLARGED. ALTHOUGH PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATES SOME FLOW WEAKNESSES IN 1-4 KM AGL LAYER...WINDS NE OF TROUGH AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PERMIT AT LEAST INTERMITTENT SUPERCELL MODE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ENHANCING LARGE HAIL THREAT. RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED OVER CENTRAL/NRN NEB PANHANDLE SHOW UP TO ABOUT 2100 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-40 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...WITH ABOUT 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARS. WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SHOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 45030449 45020412 44890376 44200302 42820238 41380219 41040252 40970286 40970416 41580473 42820486 43840556 44560684 44840724 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 22:58:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 17:58:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506252310.j5PNAC9B019162@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252309 NDZ000-MTZ000-260115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1469 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...PORTIONS NWRN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 525... VALID 252309Z - 260115Z LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS -- INDICATED NW OLF AS OF 23Z -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD 30-40 KT ACROSS PORTIONS ROOSEVELT/DANIELS/SHERIDAN COUNTIES MT. ACTIVITY MAY ACCELERATE AND DEVELOP BOW ECHO...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS NOW BEING PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP NWRN ND -- MAINLY FROM ISN AREA NWD -- BEFORE MOVING INTO SRN SK. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SWD ACROSS PORTIONS MCCONE/GARFIELD COUNTIES MT AS WELL...AND ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS WRN ND. CONVECTION MOVING NEWD FROM MUSSELSHELL COUNTY MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TORNADO POTENTIAL AS IT INTERACTS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER WRN ROSEBUD OR S-CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTIES. HOWEVER RELATIVELY FRESHLY PRODUCED...COLD AND PROGRESSIVE CHARACTER OF OUTFLOW SHOULD LIMIT DURATION OF THIS THREAT. OTHER...MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION INVOF MT/WY BORDER MAY ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTER AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS SERN MT...IN ENVIRONMENT OF BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS E-NE OF SFC LOW. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS AREA IS N OF SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT...LIFTED PARCELS REMAIN SFC BASED OVER MOST OF PRE-STORM AIR MASS IN ERN MT. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INVOF MLS APPEAR TO REPRESENT THIS ENVIRONMENT REASONABLY...WITH 50-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND WITH LOW 60S SFC DEW POINT CONTRIBUTING TO ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG MLCAPE. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND LCL SHOULD LOWER WITH TIME AS ANVIL SHADOWING AND LOWER SUN ANGLE CUT SFC HEATING SOMEWHAT. ..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 45020888 49000842 48970386 45020451 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 23:03:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 18:03:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506252314.j5PNEYn1020543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252313 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-260215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1470 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN/NCENTRAL IA AND FAR SERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 252313Z - 260215Z SCT STRONG TSTMS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO 01Z OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA...ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR ONL SEWD TO OMA AND EWD TO NEAR AIO. ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. GREATER COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 02Z...WHEN HVY RNFL WITH HRLY RATES OVER 1 INCH WILL BECOME THE MAIN THREAT. 22Z SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR ONL SEWD TO NEAR OMA AND THEN EWD TO JUST NORTH OF DSM. CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE REMAINING CINH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO INITIATE ISO SVR CONVECTION. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT SOME SVR HAIL AND WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. LACK OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS OVERALL THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPH PER RECENT OMA VWP SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST AS WELL WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY FORM ON THE BOUNDARY PRIOR TO 02Z. IF SFC BASED CONVECTION FAILS TO MATERIALIZE OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA EARLY THIS EVENING THEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES LATER THIS EVENING...MODERATE WAA AND CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE 850 MB BOUNDARY OVER FAR SERN SD...NWRN/NCENTRAL IA WOULD SUPPORT SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY... BUT WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...ONLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IS ANTICIPATED FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT FORMS. RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...AROUND 10 KTS PARALLEL TO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTATION...COMBINED WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.9 INCHES/ WOULD SUPPORT HVY RAINFALL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT AFTER DARK. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41019612 41659744 42419781 43109744 43309604 43509507 43419450 42679396 41599402 40879441 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 00:04:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 19:04:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260016.j5Q0GKuc011139@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260015 WYZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-260215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1471 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN UT...PORTIONS SWRN WY... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 523... VALID 260015Z - 260215Z EXPECT WW WILL NOT BE REISSUED OR EXTENDED EWD INTO CO OR MORE OF SRN WY...AND THAT REMAINING PORTIONS WW 523 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS WITH HISTORY OF STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS -- EVIDENT AT 00Z FROM SRN WASATCH RANGE SWD TOWARD LAKE POWELL REGION -- WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS ERN UT AND PERHAPS PORTIONS SWRN WY NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL...BUT DIMINISH AFTER 02Z WITH LOSS OF INFLOW-LAYER DIABATIC HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT PRODUCED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN GRAND COUNTY UT -- BETWEEN 2337-2350Z -- WILL MOVE NEWD INTO PORTIONS UINTAH COUNTY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AND MLCAPES GENERALLY UNDER 500 J/KG...BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO MAINTAIN WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IN MOST INTENSE CELLS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...LKN... 38081399 41811416 41840917 38090911 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 00:32:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 19:32:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260044.j5Q0iJ2Q019371@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260042 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-260215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1472 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN ID...WRN WY...SWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... VALID 260042Z - 260215Z MAINTAIN BULK OF WW THROUGH SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION EXCEPT STABILIZED AIR MASS OVER NWRN PORTION. THEREAFTER...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING TO REDUCE INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL MT CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH BIL...AND EXTENDS WWD ACROSS PORTIONS STILLWATER/SWEET GRASS/PARK COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE DRIFTING S TOWARD FOOTHILLS OF BEARTOOTH RANGE. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES TCU/STRONGLY SHEARED CB ATTEMPTS IN BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS...AND CELLS ORIGINATING THERE MAY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS AS THEY INTERACT WITH THAT BOUNDARY. FARTHER S...DRY AIR MASS IS PRECLUDING RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS SERN ID. GIVEN FAVORABLE KINEMATIC FIELDS ACROSS REGION...SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. MEANWHILE...AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN MT -- N OF DLN AREA -- HAS STABILIZED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO PRECIP AND MAY BE REMOVED FROM WW. ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 42011443 46701272 46680883 42041086 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 00:34:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 19:34:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260045.j5Q0jR3T019673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260044 NEZ000-COZ000-260245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1473 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260044Z - 260245Z ISOLATED SVR STORM THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OUT OF NWRN KS IN THE NEXT HOUR...AND MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER SWRN/SCENTRAL KS. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RISE/FALL COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING NEWD ACROSS NERN CO/FAR NWRN KS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT INTO SWRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT /PER 00Z LBF SOUNDING/ WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. RECENT TRENDS IN THE GDA PROFILER DATA AND GLD VWP DATA PRIOR TO OUTFLOW SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM GENERATED LOW LEVEL JET HAD DEVELOPED. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID IN SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF 850 WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SCENTRAL NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AMT OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SVR WILL MOVE INTO FAR SERN PORTIONS OF WW 526. ..CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... 40590206 41490187 41920110 41899902 41719845 41379816 40689801 40319832 40039899 40000195 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 02:12:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 21:12:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260223.j5Q2NtqP019505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260223 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-260400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1474 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NEB PANHANDLE...ERN WY...SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526... VALID 260223Z - 260400Z PER COORDINATION WITH CYS/RAP...WY/SD HAVE BEEN CLEARED FROM WW. REMAINDER WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 6Z EXPIRATION GIVEN SUSTAINED WEAKENING TRENDS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REMAINING IS ACTIVITY INVOF CDR...WHICH APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXTENDS WSWWD ACROSS PORTIONS NRN GOSHEN COUNTY WY...WHICH MAY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO SIOUX COUNTY NEB AND INTERACTS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE AIR MASS ACROSS REGION IS BECOMING MORE STABLE WITH COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...AND LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING. LARGE MULTICELL COMPLEX ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN AND CENTRAL NEB WILL REMAIN SE OF VALID WW COUNTIES. ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 41090070 41060383 44990655 44970306 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 02:56:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 21:56:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260307.j5Q37onb001924@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260307 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-260800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1475 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NV / SWRN UT / NWRN AZ CONCERNING...WIND SHIFT VALID 260307Z - 260800Z A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO WLY THEN NWLY LATER THIS EVENING. ABRUPT DIRECTIONAL CHANGE OF 30-40 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY...WITH WINDS FINALLY BECOMING LIGHT NWLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NV WITH CLOUD SHIELD EXPANDING EWD. AT THE SURFACE...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXIST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. GIVEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN COOLER AIR MASS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOUD COVER/VORT MAX AND SFC THERMAL TROUGH OVER ERN NV...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND SPEEDS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE STRONG WITH THIS WIND SHIFT...AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS BEGINS TO DECOUPLE. HOWEVER...VEERING WINDS MAY CAUSE TROUBLE IN VICINITY OF ONGOING FIRES. ..JEWELL.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF... 37961347 36661357 36251442 36801502 37871482 38301458 38181397 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 03:09:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 22:09:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260321.j5Q3LJpo006854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260320 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-260445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1476 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN MT...WRN ND...EXTREME NWRN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 527... VALID 260320Z - 260445Z CONVECTION ACROSS E-CENTRAL/NERN MT HAS EVOLVED INTO MCS THAT WILL MOVE INTO WRN ND DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND DURING PAST 1-2 HORUS. TORNADO WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OR BOW ECHO MESOCYCLONE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS...ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND -- SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION. INCREASING SBCINH IS LOWERING PROBABILITIES FOR ADDITIONAL/DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN SD/SERN MT BUT AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MOIST AXIS NEAR ONL...PIR...DIK..SDY LINE. MODIFIED GGW RAOB...AND RUC SOUNDINGS FROM NWRN SD ACROSS MT/ND BORDER AREA INDICATE LOW 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS 40-50 KT. STORM-RELATIVE INFLOWS 25-35 KT ARE INDICATED FOR VARIOUS EWD-NEWD MOTIONS OBSERVED OVER PAST 1-2 HOURS. SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER WRN PORTIONS WW WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HAVE STABILIZED AIR MASS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 44970295 44980781 48980575 48990045 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 04:27:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 23:27:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260438.j5Q4cogu032427@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260438 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260437 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-260600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1477 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN IL...IA WITHIN ABOUT 80-90 NM N OF I-80. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 260437Z - 260600Z POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO HEAVY PRECIP CHARACTER...WITHIN BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM EXTREME NRN IL WWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND W-CENTRAL IA. BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF THREAT APPEARS TO BECOME MORE SUSTAINED...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST INFLOW WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT PRECIP GENERATION AND LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN RATES LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR...PARTICULARLY IN CORES OF SLOW MOVING HP STORMS. VWP DATA AND RUC HODOGRAPHS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...RESULTING FROM STRONG VEERING IN LOWEST 3 KM AGL WIND PROFILES. SRH VALUES OF AROUND 150 J/KG ARE EVIDENT IN 0-1 KM LAYER...ACCOUNTING FOR BULK OF SRH IN ENTIRE PROFILE. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK -- GENERALLY 15-20 KT AROUND 500 MB -- BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTRIBUTES TO AROUND 40 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHEN USING EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCEL. RIGHTWARD MOVING STORMS -- TURNING GENERALLY SWD IN THIS KINEMATIC PROFILE -- WILL HAVE 20-30 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WITH BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCH PW. MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG ARE EVIDENT BASED ON MODIFIED OAX RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42218880 41878962 41599059 41789320 41789556 42299534 42579446 42879309 42879249 42569185 42279084 42419030 42678859 42388846 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 04:38:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 23:38:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260449.j5Q4nvU4003096@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260449 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260449 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-260645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1478 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 527... VALID 260449Z - 260645Z SQLN WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E ACROSS WRN ND IN WW 527. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REQUIRE A SMALL ADDITIONAL WATCH E OF WW 527 IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. COMPOSITE RADAR DATA SHOW APEX OF BOW-SHAPED MCS MOVING ENE AT 45 KTS INVOF ISN IN NW ND. TRAILING SWRN PART OF COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE. THE SRN PART OF THE LINE HAS UNDERGONE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN THE PAST 1-2 HRS. IN CONTRAST...THE NRN PART OF THE COMPLEX HAS REMAINED VERY STRONG AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERSECT EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTED ENE/WSW ACROSS NW ND. LATEST SURFACE AND VWP DATA SHOW AXIS OF GREATEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ EXTENDING FROM NEAR ISN SEWD TO NEAR BIS. THIS CORRIDOR ALSO CORRESPONDS TO AXIS OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW...WITH 0-1 KM SSELY FLOW OF 25-30 KTS. GIVEN THIS SETUP...PART OF THE WRN ND MCS MAY SOON TURN SOMEWHAT MORE E OR ESE ALONG INSTABILITY/INFLOW GRADIENT TOWARD CNTRL ND. GIVEN THE PREVAILING INSTABILITY/SHEAR...SUCH MOTION MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL E OF WW 527 EARLY SUNDAY. ..CORFIDI.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45900121 45900238 45880342 45940416 46260457 46690474 47440437 48010399 48730348 48930241 48970074 48939953 48489897 47469852 46529890 45980003 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 08:48:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 03:48:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260859.j5Q8xa4I027755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260858 NDZ000-261030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1479 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528... VALID 260858Z - 261030Z THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IN OVERALL INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. UNLESS STORMS REINTENSIFY...ANOTHER WW E OF 528 IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF DEVILS LAKE SWWD TO N OF BISMARK. NRN PORTION OF LINE IS MOVING THE FASTEST AT AROUND 35 KT AND WILL BEGIN MOVING E OF WW 528 BY 0945Z. OVERALL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NWD INTO SRN CANADA DURING THE MORNING WHERE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN SASKATCHEWAN EXISTS. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE WITH TIME WHICH...IN CONCERT WITH THE RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD MAINTAIN A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AS A NON-SEVERE MCS. STORMS ON THE SRN END OF THE MCS MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN ND. ..DIAL.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46960066 47969923 48859862 48759773 47839766 46610018 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 15:39:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 10:39:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506261551.j5QFp8tM023181@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261550 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261550 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-261745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NERN SD...WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261550Z - 261745Z STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN ND AND NERN SD LATE THIS MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION APPEARS SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM GRADUALLY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WITHIN CAPPED AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL MAY INCREASE IF ACTIVITY CAN PERSIST NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SCALE MID LEVEL VORT CENTER APPEARS TO BE DRIVING AN INCREASE IN TSTMS ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN ND INTO NERN SD LATE THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WOULD APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL FROM A FEW OF THESE CELLS. HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE FURTHER AS UPSTREAM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AND FUELS STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45629628 45359753 45369867 45929931 46579935 46859915 47479853 47999781 48159710 48049591 47759518 46689512 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 16:40:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 11:40:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506261652.j5QGq4eg018191@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261651 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-261915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...PARTS OF MA/CT/RI/SRN NH AND SWRN ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261651Z - 261915Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM ERN NY INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF STORM COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE INCREASES. SFC TEMPS HAVE HEATED QUICKLY TO AROUND 90F BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM THE LWR HUDSON VLY ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. THIS HEATING...COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF STALLED/RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH...HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG/. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE WHITE AND GREEN MTNS...ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS HAS ALLOWED WEAK CAP TO BE OVERCOME THESE LOCATIONS WITH STORM INITIATION NOW OCCURRING. IN ADDITION TO THIS CONVECTION DRIFTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...TROUGH...AND NEAR SEA BREEZES SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE WITH A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. STORM AND/OR BOUNDARY MERGERS AND COLLISIONS COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT SPREADING INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER PARTS OF MA AND SRN NH BY LATE AFTERNOON. IF A CORRIDOR OF MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY CAN BE ANTICIPATED...THEN A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED OVER THE PARTS OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... 42077183 41877317 41887376 41927442 42337450 42777429 43147408 43717417 43737415 44187392 44147375 43837319 43737232 44067140 44647028 44776961 44236951 43787033 42927092 42247112 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 17:50:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 12:50:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506261801.j5QI1jHw014747@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261800 COZ000-NMZ000-262000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CO AND NERN/NCENTRAL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261800Z - 262000Z ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN/CENTRAL COLORADO IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY UNDER MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. FURTHER EAST...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO...NERN NM. DMGG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS EXPECTED IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING QUICKLY OVER THE MTNS OF NCENTRAL NM...WRN/CENTRAL CO WHERE MLCAPES WERE FROM 500-700 J/KG. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER ERN UT...AFFECTS OF MODERATE WIND FIELDS /30-40 KTS AT 500 MB PER RECENT AZTEC NM PROFILER/ ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY DEEP MIXED /INVERTED-V/ ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS WITH THIS CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO WIND FIELD OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO AND NERN NM SHOULD INITIALLY LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF STORM MVMNT AND SVR THREAT INTO THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...TRENDS IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DIMINISHING MLCINH OVER THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH BASED STORMS TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA AFTER 20Z. FARTHER EAST...LEE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER FAR ERN CO MAY PROVIDE A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR ISO SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z...WHEN CINH WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY. AGAIN HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION IN THIS AREA DUE TO 30+ DWPT SPREADS AND SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FAVOR DMGG WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT... 40900501 40750649 40290773 39060849 38150861 37080805 36320703 36090689 36110519 36300404 36980309 37710226 38820210 39570225 40230256 40840370 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 18:19:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 13:19:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506261830.j5QIUSgn026098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261829 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-262030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NERN SD...WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261829Z - 262030Z A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN. SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND ABR 18Z RAOB WERE SUGGESTING CAP IS QUICKLY ERODING FROM ABR AREA NWD ACROSS ERN ND...AND ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS WRN MN. CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND ALONG WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR NEAR SFC-BASED STORM INCITATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND WARM FRONT AND 30-45KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL FURTHER PROMOTE INTENSE STORM UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED MESOCYCLONES. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS TRACK NEAR/ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..CARBIN.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46339314 45769634 44890089 47080176 48459334 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 18:27:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 13:27:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506261839.j5QId9q0030138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261838 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261838 NMZ000-262045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/CENTRAL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261838Z - 262045Z CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE GALLINAS AND SAN MATEO MTNS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY...AND ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS BY 20Z. A GREATER SVR THREAT MAY OCCUR AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS EWD INTO THE ERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LAST NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS SENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVER CENTRAL NM. 12Z SOUNDING FROM ABQ INDICATED MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG/ WOULD BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN AS DEEP MIXING CONTINUES TO OCCUR. LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF NM AS PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF WRN NM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AROUND 30 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW...COMBINED WITH SELY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OVER THE ECENTRAL/SERN NM HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER WEST...VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AID IN GREATER MIXING. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD FAVOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AS THE MOST LIKELY SVR THREAT OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. ..CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 35040739 35840718 36500508 36300396 35680322 34450336 33090358 32990409 32960562 33970735 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 19:19:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 14:19:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506261931.j5QJVGak019925@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261930 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-262200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SERN MT...WRN ND/SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261930Z - 262200Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF ERN WY/MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS MAY NEED TO BE COVERED WITH A WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RADAR AND LIGHTNING TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM WY INTO SERN MT THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF A SFC LOW OVER NWRN SD WILL CONTINUE TO AID AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FROM NWRN SD TO NEAR MT/ND BORDER. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WY/MT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AS CAPPING IS OVERCOME BY SFC HEATING AND FORCING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. A S-N BAND OF 30-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT CELLS AND STORM CLUSTERS. HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A LARGER-SCALE MCS LATER THIS EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW... 45090257 44350506 44620666 46250572 46830509 47930386 48240245 47920140 47290172 46290209 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 20:21:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 15:21:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506262033.j5QKX1dH013259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262030 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-262230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ID...SMALL PARTS OF WRN MT/WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262030Z - 262230Z MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/SERN ID...WRN MT AND WRN WY THROUGH THE EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY BEING PLANNED. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BENEATH MID LEVEL COLD POOL FROM SRN ID INTO WRN WY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...PERSISTENT ASCENT WITHIN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/DESTABILIZATION...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS. A FEW CELLS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN LOWER FREEZING LEVELS UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL. IN ADDITION...STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ..CARBIN.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... 42141117 42101309 42021397 41981519 42131576 42511630 42791650 43311639 43701579 43951536 44691387 45111253 45081101 44351012 42671034 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 20:37:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 15:37:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506262048.j5QKmrGJ020430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262048 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-262215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS...WRN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 529... VALID 262048Z - 262215Z ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 529 AND MAY REMAIN A THREAT INTO NERN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. FARTHER WEST...NEW CG LTG STRIKE WAS NOTED WITHIN BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING NORTH ACROSS EDMUNDS AND MCPHERSON COUNTIES IN NCNTRL SD. THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY CLOSE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FOCUSED NEAR THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN STORMS WAS TRAILING WWD INTO EXTREME SERN ND. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPUR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA INTO THE EVENING. SITUATION APPEARS QUITE VOLATILE WITH LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL POTENTIAL UNFOLDING GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. ..CARBIN.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46449472 44580151 47190169 48359741 48879484 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 20:48:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 15:48:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506262059.j5QKxstr024843@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262059 KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-262300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1488 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...NERN CO...WRN NEB AND SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262059Z - 262300Z HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF LEE TROUGH MAY INTENSIFY AND POSE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT AS IT MOVES EWD INTO GREATER INSTABILITY OVER NWRN KS NWD INTO SWRN SD. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG LEE TROUGH. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 23Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL SD. A SFC LEE TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS SWRN SD...WRN NEB/INTO FAR NWRN KS AND ECENTRAL CO. CONVECTION IN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER NERN CO AND ERN WY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 25-30 KTS INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN WY/NERN CO. DESPITE SOMEWHAT VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW...EVEN EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH...MODERATE MID LVL WIND FIELDS FROM 30-40 KTS PER REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION AS STORMS ENCOUNTER HIGHER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG/ EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH OVER WRN KS....WRN NEB AND SWRN SD. THUS LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 44130388 44390168 42530093 41130049 40180016 38919994 38770130 38730196 40430254 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 22:18:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 17:18:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506262230.j5QMUEkC027278@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262229 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-270030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO..SWRN KS...WRN OK PANHANDLE...NERN/ECENTRAL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 530... VALID 262229Z - 270030Z SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WW 530 THROUGH 00Z. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE GREATEST OVER ECENTRAL NM...WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT HIGHEST OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS...WRN OK PANHANDLE AND NERN NM. CONVECTION OVER NERN NM/SERN CO WAS MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE AND GIVEN VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEVELOPING COLD POOL OVER NERN NM WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER ECENTRAL/SERN NM. ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM GUADALUPE COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO DE BACA COUNTY AND OUT OF WW 530 IN THE NEXT HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STG-SVR STORM MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS EWD INTO WRN CHAVES COUNTY THROUGH 00Z. DESPITE SOME SVR THREAT SOUTH OF WW 530...OVERALL LIMITED SPATIAL THREAT DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE A NEW WW ISSUANCE. ADDITIONAL SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DRY LINE INTERSECTION OVER SWRN PORTION OF WW 530 TO THE ESE OF ABQ /TORRANCE COUNTY/. ..CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 38320307 35060687 34800715 34810447 38330035 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 02:48:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 21:48:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506270259.j5R2xSKX030793@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270258 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-270430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0958 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN ND...N-CENTRAL/EXTREME NERN SD... CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533... VALID 270258Z - 270430Z MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...EVIDENT AT 230Z FROM CORSON COUNTY SD NNEWD THROUGH ROLETTE COUNTY ND AND INTO SWRN MB. ADDITIONALLY...PORTIONS NWRN MN E OF WW 533 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR WW IN ADVANCE OF SEVERE CONVECTION MOVING NEWD FROM SARGENT/RANSOM COUNTIES IN SERN ND. SQUALL LINE THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER SERN MT/NWRN SD HAS MERGED WITH EARLIER SUPERCELLS ACROSS GRANT COUNTY ND...FORMING BOW ECHO THAT SHOULD CROSS SRN PORTIONS BIS AREA MOVING 40-45 KT. ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY EXTEND DOWNSHEAR ACROSS A CORRIDOR EXTENDING ENEWD TOWARD JMS...DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS. AIR MASS OVER ERN ND IS GRADUALLY BECOMING DECOUPLED AT SFC BECAUSE OF DIABATIC COOLING...BUT STABLE LAYER WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW TO ALLOW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH SFC RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS OVER PRE-STORM AIR MASS IN ND...NERN SD AND NWRN MN INDICATE 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG SUPPORTED BY RICH MOISTURE IN SFC 850 MB LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45309641 44660148 48430154 49049641 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 03:10:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 22:10:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506270321.j5R3LgZp006804@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270320 MNZ000-270515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270320Z - 270515Z SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z ACROSS NRN MN...PRIMARILY FROM E OF FAR NEWD TOWARD WRN BOUNDARY WATERS REGION AND NWD TOWARD MB BORDER. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. RICHLAND COUNTY SD TSTMS ARE SHOWING DECREASING TREND...BUT FOREGOING AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE OVER ERN PORTIONS WW 533 AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF NWRN MN NOT IN WW. WELL ORGANIZED LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS ALSO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD FROM RED RIVER REGION AFTER 5Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THAT ACTIVITY. ZONALLY ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION -- EVIDENT AT 315Z FROM E-CENTRAL ND ACROSS BJI AREA...MAY FILL IN AND EXPAND EWD AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD CANADIAN BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING N OF SFC WARM FRONT...IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WAA...AND ATOP INCREASINGLY DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT MOIST 30-40 KT LLJ TO SUPPORT STRENGTHENING OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE EVIDENT IN 00Z MPX RAOB SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED MUCAPES INCREASING TO 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE...WITH 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 48319244 47839251 47359320 47289358 46709417 46509595 46659641 49019644 48989512 49389510 49359493 49329482 48919469 48799467 48729451 48719435 48689423 48659417 48619381 48529379 48529348 48609345 48629322 48619299 48519262 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 03:14:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 22:14:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506270325.j5R3PUcv008143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270324 COR MNZ000-270515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270324Z - 270515Z CORRECTED FOR TYPO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z ACROSS NRN MN...PRIMARILY FROM E OF FAR NEWD TOWARD WRN BOUNDARY WATERS REGION AND NWD TOWARD MB BORDER. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. RICHLAND COUNTY ND TSTMS ARE SHOWING DECREASING TREND...BUT FOREGOING AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE OVER ERN PORTIONS WW 533 AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF NWRN MN NOT IN WW. WELL ORGANIZED LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS ALSO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD FROM RED RIVER REGION AFTER 5Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THAT ACTIVITY. ZONALLY ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION -- EVIDENT AT 315Z FROM E-CENTRAL ND ACROSS BJI AREA...MAY FILL IN AND EXPAND EWD AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD CANADIAN BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING N OF SFC WARM FRONT...IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WAA...AND ATOP INCREASINGLY DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT MOIST 30-40 KT LLJ TO SUPPORT STRENGTHENING OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE EVIDENT IN 00Z MPX RAOB SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED MUCAPES INCREASING TO 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE...WITH 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 48319244 47839251 47359320 47289358 46709417 46509595 46659641 49019644 48989512 49389510 49359493 49329482 48919469 48799467 48729451 48719435 48689423 48659417 48619381 48529379 48529348 48609345 48629322 48619299 48519262 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 06:41:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 01:41:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506270652.j5R6qbZm013874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270652 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270651 MNZ000-NDZ000-270745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN ND THROUGH EXTREME WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533... VALID 270651Z - 270745Z STORMS CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH EXTREME WRN MN AND WILL MOVE E OF THE REMAINING PARTS OF 533 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEREFORE WW 533 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 08Z. ..DIAL.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF... 46199678 47769687 48909723 48799619 46289633 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 07:50:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 02:50:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506270802.j5R827Uu005564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270759 MNZ000-270900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534... VALID 270759Z - 270900Z THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH SQUALL LINE OVER NRN MN...BUT OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN MOVING E OF WW 534 AROUND 0930Z... BUT IT APPEARS MOST OF THE STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO SRN CANADA AFTER THIS TIME. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WW E OF 534 WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. EARLY THIS MORNING...SQUALL LINE OVER NWRN MN CONTINUES ENEWD AT 45 KT. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST HOUR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN END OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN LIMITED DUE TO PRESENCE OF A STRONGER CAP. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME OVER CNTRL AND SWRN MN AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT LIFTING NEWD INTO CANADA...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MUCH FARTHER SWD. THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS STORMS LIFT NEWD TOWARD A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DIAL.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 47019519 47739487 48659479 48689415 48369321 46939468 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 15:24:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 10:24:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506271535.j5RFZY6r002337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271534 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271534 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-271730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 271534Z - 271730Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS. LITTLE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY. THIS APPEARS TO BE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...NOW ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. WITH FURTHER HEATING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND CATSKILLS...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COULD ENHANCE ISOLATED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES. ..KERR.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... 43227523 43517404 44527337 44807254 44877123 43347131 42467217 41907282 41727376 41797474 42247547 42647551 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 17:18:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 12:18:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506271730.j5RHUGng013591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271729 MNZ000-271930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1499 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271729Z - 271930Z THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKELY TO INCREASE/INTENSIFY NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN NARROW TONGUE. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE NOW ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG...WITH INHIBITION GRADUALLY WEAKENING. MODELS SUGGEST DEFORMATION OF WEAK CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...FORCING MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL AREA...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 19-21Z. OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP/BECOME FOCUSED ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...NORTH OF BRAINERD INTO AREAS EAST OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS. THOUGH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 48039104 46949221 45429345 44469437 44039455 44579595 45369620 46539563 47989383 48599291 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 17:25:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 12:25:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506271736.j5RHaj9D017321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271735 GAZ000-SCZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-271930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY...ERN/MIDDLE TN...ERN/NRN AL...NRN GA...FAR SWRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271735Z - 271930Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS/MERGERS THAT OCCUR OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SVR EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 20Z. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS EXISTED OVER THE AREA TODAY THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED SVR WET MICROBURSTS. ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED DRY AIR POCKET FROM 700-500 MB THAT HAS BEEN BROUGHT NWD INTO THE REGION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WRN TN BEGINS TO LIFTS NWD. AXIS OF LOW-MID 70S DEWPTS EXTENDING NNW FROM CENTRAL/SRN GA INTO THE SCENTRAL KY BENEATH THIS DRY AIR LAYER SUPPORTED DELTA THETA-E VALUES FROM 25-30 DEGREES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS FROM NRN GA...NRN/ERN AL NWD INTO CENTRAL KY. IN ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES/1000 MUCAPE IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER ABOVE THE DRY AIR SHOULD FAVOR STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AS WELL. KINEMATICALLY...A UNIDIRECTIONAL AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE OVER THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL FAVOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 15-20 KT OF 1-2 KM WINDS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL VWPS IN ADDITION TO DOWNDRAFT GENERATED WINDS. WHERE CELL MERGERS OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF NWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP...WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH... 37168462 35988407 35158346 33788267 32938324 33008457 33648697 34718720 36038720 37118730 37438564 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 17:42:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 12:42:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506271754.j5RHs9h1027897@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271753 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-272000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN NEB INTO WRN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271753Z - 272000Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. IN THE WAKE OF WEAK IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...ZONE OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE OMAHA AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD WITH FORCING EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...AND ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WITH FURTHER HEATING/WEAKENING INHIBITION...CAPE FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS GRADUALLY BECOME ROOTED IN THIS LAYER. SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID... 41359737 42069679 43329574 43299384 42419310 41419371 40669488 40219646 40349753 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 18:04:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 13:04:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506271815.j5RIFmPi008753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271814 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-272015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL WI INTO UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271814Z - 272015Z AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. SURFACE HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKENING CAP/INCREASING CAPE...WHICH WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG ACROSS MOST AREAS BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD IS EVIDENT IN CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC NEXT FEW HOURS...INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY. AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET...NOW SHIFTING INTO ONTARIO...BUT 20 TO 30 KT FLOW FIELDS WILL ENHANCE STORM PROPAGATION...AND POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX... 46598737 46068765 45378808 44328869 43668918 43198977 43039132 44539033 45189001 45759025 46818957 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 18:57:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 13:57:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506271909.j5RJ98HW012938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271908 ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-272115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1503 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...CENTRAL/SERN MO AND SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271908Z - 272115Z ISOLATED WET MICRORBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAKLY ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP 0-1 KM LAPSE RATES FROM 8-9 DEG C...BENEATH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG/ WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR MICROBURST WINDS MOST LIKELY WHERE STORM MERGERS OCCUR. DESPITE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAINS COOL /-8 TO -9 DEG C AT 500 MB/ AND COOL SFC DOWNDRAFT AIR IN THE LOWER 70S MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. ..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 38829244 37039350 35869356 35069284 35059161 35589057 37048921 38098910 39348999 39339186 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 19:50:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 14:50:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506272002.j5RK2FgS015447@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272001 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-272200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/NERN CO....NWRN KS SWD INTO SERN NM/SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272001Z - 272200Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE BY 22Z. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE AND GENERALLY UNORGANIZED SVR THREAT EXPECTED. BROAD SWLY FLOW WILL AID IN CONTINUED SLOW EWD SHIFT OF DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH TO AN AXIS FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE NERN CO/NWRN KS BORDER SSWWD TO NEAR CIMARRON COUNTY OK THEN SWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM FROM CAO TO THE SACRAMENTO MTN FOOTHILLS OF SERN NM BY 22Z. AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH...MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG /HIGHEST VALUES OVER WRN KS AND THE WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES/ WILL EXIST. MLCINH SHOULD DECREASE SUFFICIENTLY BY 21-22Z...THAT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF ALREADY DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER SERN NM HIGH PLAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST...GIVEN GENERALLY SLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH AND 20-30 KTS OF MID WLY FLOW. ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SERN NM WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED AND MID LEVEL FLOW WAS WNWLY. THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE FARTHER NORTH OVER NWRN KS/NERN CO...WHERE BACKED FLOW EXISTS NORTH OF SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER THAN FARTHER SOUTH /30 KTS PER RECENT PLT PROFILER DATA/. IN BOTH THESE AREAS...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...EPZ... 34880447 34250492 33020520 32460487 32110382 32110331 35610164 37320019 38999965 39730014 40060200 40410267 39980325 38410173 36910257 36250343 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 19:58:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 14:58:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506272009.j5RK9ZQg021250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272008 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-272215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SW SD...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272008Z - 272215Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL BACK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS BECOMING FOCUSED FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO EAST CENTRAL/ NORTHEAST WYOMING. THIS IS IN WAKE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE IMPULSE ALREADY LIFTING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND NOT WELL HANDLED BY 12Z NAM/GFS. AS LEAD SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON... INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MOISTENING AND HEATING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS. AS LEADING EDGE OF MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 21-23Z. ..KERR.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... 44070599 44640591 44900450 44520366 43700287 42980225 42590147 41900161 41610223 41670346 41990423 42810530 43410571 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 20:27:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 15:27:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506272039.j5RKdJ1q007464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272037 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-272200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MN...IA...WRN WI...IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 535...536... VALID 272037Z - 272200Z RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS WWS 535 AND 536. NEW WW MAY STILL BE NEEDED TO THE EAST...ACROSS WISCONSIN/PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. EVOLUTION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH INTENSE LEADING EDGE OF STORMS JUST EAST OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM NEAR BRAINERD INTO AREAS EAST OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS. PROXIMITY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO 35-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO ONTARIO WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS WEST THROUGH NORTH OF DULUTH INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FOCUSED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SUPPORTS CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE. BEST POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE IN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NOW SPREADING EAST OF OMAHA INTO THE DES MOINES AREA THROUGH 22-23Z. HOWEVER...INCREASING CONVECTION IS EVIDENT WEST OF MINNEAPOLIS MN...WHERE AIR MASS IS MODIFYING IN WAKE OF EARLY BAND OF STORMS. ..KERR.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX... 41869638 43439650 45599543 47059428 48259328 48069053 47098774 43549071 41549227 40779497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 21:00:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 16:00:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506272111.j5RLBaDp027134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272110 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272110 MTZ000-WYZ000-272315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN SEWD INTO SERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272110Z - 272315Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ARE POSSIBLE OVER NWRN/WCENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED AMPLE HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER CENTRAL/SCENTRAL/SERN MT MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE SCT SVR THREAT. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER WRN MT AS IT MOVES INTO INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW WBZ HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER SE...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SERN ID...SWRN MT AND NWRN WY MTNS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ID WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SCENTRAL MT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG/ DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GREATER WLY COMPONENT TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS OVER SCENTRAL/CENTRAL MT GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. ..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... 44930621 45210954 46241248 47291405 47681418 48381380 48801326 48931174 48541002 46740638 45250509 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 21:37:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 16:37:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506272148.j5RLmPjU015455@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272147 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-272345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...NERN CO AND SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272147Z - 272345Z ISOLATED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA BY 23Z. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING ALONG LEE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTION /NOTED ON GLD RADAR NEAR BURLINGTON CO/ NWD TO JUST EAST OF AKRON AND CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY. AREA REMAINS ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WITH PLT PROFILER INDICATING 35 KTS AT 5-6 KM. EAST OF THE DRYLINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL AUGMENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO OVER 40 KTS THUS SUPPORTING SUPERCELL STORM TYPE. EVEN IF NO OTHER STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...IT IS LIKELY THAT ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER BANNER COUNTY NEB IN THE PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SEWD OUT OF WW 537 IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS INTO INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS SWRN NEB/FAR NERN CO. RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... 40830339 39960314 39490317 39140238 39130110 39290019 40319987 40970000 40990290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 22:49:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 17:49:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506272301.j5RN14Ri018120@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272300 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-280030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1509 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0600 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...WRN SD...FAR ERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537... VALID 272300Z - 280030Z ALL OF WW 537 WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z. ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER BANNER/MORRILL COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD AROUND 15 KTS INTO CHEYENNE COUNTY THROUGH 00Z. BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS STORM...BUT VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY. ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS OVER THE NWRN NEB PANHANDLE WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER NORTH...THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER ECENTRAL/NERN WY AHEAD OF DRYLINE. CLUSTER OF STG STORMS OVER CAMPBELL/WESTON AND CROOK COUNTIES WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THREAT FOR SVR OVER WRN SD MAY BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO THIS AREA AFTER 00Z...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS MAINTAINED OVER 100 J/KG OF MLCINH. ..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... 40830339 39960314 39490317 39140238 39130110 39290019 40319987 40970000 40990290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 22:52:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 17:52:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506272303.j5RN3fsA019451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272302 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1510 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN MN...IA...W-CENTRAL/SWRN WI...EXTREME NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536... VALID 272302Z - 280100Z CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF IA CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY AHEAD OF SFC FRONT OVER MN. CONVECTIVE/OUTFLOW TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR EXTENSION OF THREAT EWD OVER ERN IA AND ACROSS MS RIVER...AND NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LATTER AREA IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE IS ANALYZED FROM MEEKER COUNTY CONVECTION SEWD THROUGH FARIBAULT COUNTY AT 23Z. MOST MN ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS LINE...W OF WHICH SFC FLOW VEERS AND CONVERGENCE WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY. CLUSTERS OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS OVER NRN AND SRN EXTREMES OF WW WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH REMAINDER LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND...AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. SRN CLUSTER IS WELL DEFINED AS BOW ECHO INVOF DSM...MOVING EWD 30-35 KT. INFLOW-LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY DISTANCE FROM SFC-BASED INFLOW...SINCE LATEST REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE GUST FRONT CONSISTENTLY 10-15 NM AHEAD OF REFLECTIVITY CORES. ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- FROM ACTIVITY ACROSS HARDIN/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IA...INTERSECTS SRN GUST FRONT OVER STORY COUNTY AS OF 23Z. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z INVOF THAT BOUNDARY INTERSECTION AS IT PROPAGATES EWD/ESEWD OVER PORTIONS MARSHALL/TAMA COUNTIES. AIR MASS AHEAD OF GUST FRONTS REMAINS FAVORABLY UNSTABLE -- WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING MLCAPES APCHG 3000 J/KG AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS SUPPORTING BOTH INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW SURGES MAY RESULT IN WEAKENING OF EXISTING CONVECTION...AND NECESSITY OF NEW DEVELOPMENT BEFORE ANOTHER WW IS NECESSARY. ..EDWARDS.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 40969507 41359480 41509437 41539417 41969416 42249395 42619398 44439529 45479409 45449154 45159131 43339046 42449018 41999007 40959074 40669217 40869459 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 00:18:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 19:18:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280029.j5S0TlEh022294@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280028 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN MN...NRN WI...WRN/CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...SRN/CENTRAL LS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538...540... VALID 280028Z - 280230Z MAINTAIN WWS ALONG/E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH TSTM COMPLEX OVER SERN MN/NWRN WI. AREA S OF WW 538 IN WI MAY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WW BEFORE 02Z EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 540. GUST FRONT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION NW OF MSP METRO HAS SURGED SEWD AND UNDERCUT MUCH OF PREVIOUSLY SEVERE ACTIVITY OVER METRO AREA. MEANWHILE SEVERE BOWING SEGMENT CONTINUES TO SURGE NEWD INTO WRN WI...AFTER PRODUCING MEASURED SEVERE GUST OF 51 KT AT STATION OEO. PORTIONS WASHBURN/BARRON/SAWYER/RUSK COUNTIES WI MAY EXPERIENCE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS BOW PASSES DURING NEXT COUPLE HOURS. DISCRETE TSTMS E AND S OF BOW AND GUST FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH VERY FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F SUPPORTING ROUGHLY 3000 J/KG MLCAPES...USING MODIFIED 00Z MPX RAOB. ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN PORTIONS WW 540 INTO WRN WW 538...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION INCREASING FROM ONTONAGON COUNTY MI SWWD ACROSS NRN WI. OVER LS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADATE FROM MIXTURE OF WIND AND HAIL TO JUST HAIL...WITH NWD EXTENT. COLD/STABLE AIR MASS DEEPENS WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS LAKE...REDUCING DCAPE AND LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS GENERATED ALOFT TO BE MAINTAINED TO SFC. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA ATOP MARINE LAYER WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED CONVECTION -- SOME WITH STRONG GUSTS SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL -- AMIDST 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44709325 45529290 46179198 46989085 47678891 47708782 46968573 45228574 45288833 44368925 43298948 42809091 44279172 44699166 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 00:19:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 19:19:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280030.j5S0UrWU022714@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280030 MTZ000-280230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539... VALID 280030Z - 280230Z BROKEN LINE OF SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT THROUGH 02Z...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SVR THREAT OVER SERN MT APPEARS TO BE WANING...AND THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WW 539 EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENEWD INTO CENTRAL/NCENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MT. A 50-75 MILE WIDE NW-SE ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY ACROSS NCENTRAL/CENTRAL INTO SERN MT THROUGH THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SVR THREAT WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY POSE A BRIEF SVR THREAT NORTH OF WW 539 NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OF NCENTRAL MT...00Z GGW SOUNDING INDICATES THAT LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER NERN MT SHOULD PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT SPATIAL AREA FOR A NEW WW NNE OF WW 539. FARTHER SE...CIRRUS CANOPY OF SERN MT MAY LIMIT ANY SVR THREAT IN THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED...AND IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS PRIOR TO 02Z...THEN THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED FROM WW 539. ..CROSBIE.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47881197 48991064 48850922 48260808 47440802 45060427 45020878 46590973 47511110 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 00:19:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 19:19:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280030.j5S0Uw9v022767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280028 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN MN...NRN WI...WRN/CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...SRN/CENTRAL LS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538...540... VALID 280028Z - 280230Z MAINTAIN WWS ALONG/E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH TSTM COMPLEX OVER SERN MN/NWRN WI. AREA S OF WW 538 IN WI MAY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WW BEFORE 02Z EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 540. GUST FRONT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION NW OF MSP METRO HAS SURGED SEWD AND UNDERCUT MUCH OF PREVIOUSLY SEVERE ACTIVITY OVER METRO AREA. MEANWHILE SEVERE BOWING SEGMENT CONTINUES TO SURGE NEWD INTO WRN WI...AFTER PRODUCING MEASURED SEVERE GUST OF 51 KT AT STATION OEO. PORTIONS WASHBURN/BARRON/SAWYER/RUSK COUNTIES WI MAY EXPERIENCE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS BOW PASSES DURING NEXT COUPLE HOURS. DISCRETE TSTMS E AND S OF BOW AND GUST FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH VERY FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F SUPPORTING ROUGHLY 3000 J/KG MLCAPES...USING MODIFIED 00Z MPX RAOB. ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN PORTIONS WW 540 INTO WRN WW 538...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION INCREASING FROM ONTONAGON COUNTY MI SWWD ACROSS NRN WI. OVER LS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADATE FROM MIXTURE OF WIND AND HAIL TO JUST HAIL...WITH NWD EXTENT. COLD/STABLE AIR MASS DEEPENS WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS LAKE...REDUCING DCAPE AND LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS GENERATED ALOFT TO BE MAINTAINED TO SFC. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA ATOP MARINE LAYER WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED CONVECTION -- SOME WITH STRONG GUSTS SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL -- AMIDST 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44709325 45529290 46179198 46989085 47678891 47708782 46968573 45228574 45288833 44368925 43298948 42809091 44279172 44699166  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 00:21:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 19:21:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280033.j5S0XEwd023905@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280030 MTZ000-280230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539... VALID 280030Z - 280230Z BROKEN LINE OF SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT THROUGH 02Z...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SVR THREAT OVER SERN MT APPEARS TO BE WANING...AND THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WW 539 EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENEWD INTO CENTRAL/NCENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MT. A 50-75 MILE WIDE NW-SE ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY ACROSS NCENTRAL/CENTRAL INTO SERN MT THROUGH THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SVR THREAT WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY POSE A BRIEF SVR THREAT NORTH OF WW 539 NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OF NCENTRAL MT...00Z GGW SOUNDING INDICATES THAT LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER NERN MT SHOULD PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT SPATIAL AREA FOR A NEW WW NNE OF WW 539. FARTHER SE...CIRRUS CANOPY OF SERN MT MAY LIMIT ANY SVR THREAT IN THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED...AND IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS PRIOR TO 02Z...THEN THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED FROM WW 539. ..CROSBIE.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47881197 48991064 48850922 48260808 47440802 45060427 45020878 46590973 47511110  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 00:42:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 19:42:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280053.j5S0rpDM032728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280053 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-280300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCENTRAL SD...ERN WY AND WRN NEB....NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537... VALID 280053Z - 280300Z ISOLATED SUPERCELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF WW 537 AND ACROSS LOGAN COUNTY IN NERN CO THROUGH 02Z WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAINING POSSIBLE. A NEW WW SOUTH OF WW 537 IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED TO ONE OR TWO COUNTIES SOUTH OF WW 537 BEFORE STORM DISSIPATES. FARTHER NORTH...CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER SWRN SD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS SCENTRAL SD AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. GIVEN LIMITED INFLOW EXPECTED INTO SCENTRAL SD THIS EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL JET AXIS PROGGED TO REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH INTO SERN NEB...AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING CINH...A NEW WW EAST OF WW 537 DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SVR THREAT AND ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER FAR ECENTRAL/NERN WY AND FAR SWRN SD ALONG OUTFLOW AND DRYLINE BOUNDARIES AND AHEAD OF WRN WY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ..CROSBIE.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 45010199 42210053 41069997 40770316 41150366 44930591 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 01:05:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 20:05:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280117.j5S1HIJc009736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280116 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280116 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-280315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1514 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NEB...S-CENTRAL/SERN SD...WRN IA. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280116Z - 280315Z SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA DURING NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SEVERAL SOURCES. WW LIKELY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCHING SWWD FROM ERN IA MCS ACROSS EXTREME N-CENTRAL MO TO CASS COUNTY NEB. THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS TO WARM FRONT AND WIND SHIFT LINE WWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL NEB TO NEAR GRI...THEN SWWD TO NEAR MCK. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS QUITE STRONGLY HEATED WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SUITABLE FOR MAINTAINING DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL IN ANY ACTIVITY WHICH USES THAT AIR MASS FOR INFLOW DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS INCLUDES TSTMS DEVELOPING JUST S-SW OMA...AND ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF KS/NEB BORDER BETWEEN MCK-CNK. THEREAFTER...BOUNDARY LAYER ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY WILL DECOUPLE AND THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION N OF BOUNDARY. SUCH CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB...OR WRN NEB/SWRN ND...IN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG OVER WRN PART OF AREA...INCREASING TO 4000 J/KG NEAR MO RIVER WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATER. EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE EVENTUALLY OVER ERN NEB. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 40879507 40419541 40119652 40090002 41109996 43880139 43919900 42969635 41699465 41029456 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 02:31:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 21:31:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280242.j5S2gUq1014172@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280239 NEZ000-SDZ000-280345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1515 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NRN NEB AND SRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537... VALID 280239Z - 280345Z SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS FAR SRN SD AND NRN NEB. A REPLACEMENT SEVERE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON DOWNSTREAM OF WW 537. CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS TODD COUNTY SD/CHERRY CO NEB...HIGHLIGHTED BY SRN EXTENT SUPERCELL APPROX 35 SW OF VALENTINE NEB AT 0230Z. GIVEN EWD PROPAGATION/INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET...NEW REPLACEMENT SEVERE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON DOWNSTREAM ACROSS FAR SRN SD AND NRN NEB. ..GUYER.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43320099 43529927 43599762 42939686 42179698 41859861 41870040  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 03:58:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 22:58:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280409.j5S49dWu019492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280409 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280408 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1516 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN WI...WRN/CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...SRN LS...EXTREME NWRN LM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542... VALID 280408Z - 280545Z MAIN CONVECTIVE CONCERN IS BROADLY ARCHING SQUALL LINE -- EVIDENT AT 4Z FROM EXTREME SERN GOGEBIC COUNTY MI SWWD THROUGH AUW AREA TO ABOUT 50 WNW RST. DAMAGING WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT ACTIVITY GENERALLY IS WEAKENING AS GUST FRONT SURGES AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE CORES. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 8Z EXPIRATION...HOWEVER...SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR TIME BEING ALONG/AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE. AIR MASS AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR SEVERE...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER E-CENTRAL UPPER MI TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN SWRN WI. WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER FLOWS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WITH EWD EXTENT...HOWEVER...INDICATES DIMINISHING PROBABILITY FOR ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG/AHEAD OF GUST FRONT BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN OPTIMALLY UNSTABLE INFLOW WITHOUT BEING UNDERCUT QUICKLY BY OUTFLOW CURRENT. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43439124 45019227 47308738 45688632 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 04:26:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 23:26:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280438.j5S4c64K031348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280437 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280437 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-280600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NEB...EXTREME S-CENTRAL SD...S-CENTRAL/SWRN IA...EXTREME NRN MO...N-CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 541...543... VALID 280437Z - 280600Z WEAKENING TREND NOTED WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ALONG SD/NEB BORDER...AND LACK OF REINTENSIFICATION OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS MAY PROMPT CANCELLATION OF WW 543 BEFORE SCHEDULED 9Z EXPIRATION. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS IN AND NEAR WWS AS OF 415Z...WITH ELEVATED BUOYANCY SUFFICIENT ACROSS MOST OF REGION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SEVERE POTENTIAL. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER IA MCS NOW EXTENDING FROM NWRN IL ACROSS N-CENTRAL MO NWWD INTO VICINITY OF CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER CASS COUNTY NEB FOR SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD REPORTS AS WELL AS AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS WARM FRONT AND WIND SHIFT LINE THERE...WITH FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD ACROSS NWRN KS. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN N OF FRONT WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS STRONGEST ON NRN PORTION OF BROAD/30-40 KT LLJ. THAT REGIME IS RELATIVELY MOIST...SUPPORTING ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AS DETERMINED FROM MODIFIED RAOBS...RUC SOUNDINGS AND PROFILER DATA. MUCAPE DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT INTO SRN IA ATOP OUTFLOW POOL...HOWEVER ELEVATED WAA MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS. ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM OVER SRN IA. STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER PORTIONS N-CENTRAL KS BETWEEN RSL-HLC-CNK...IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS ENTERING WRN PORTIONS WW 541 MAY MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF S-CENTRAL NEB GIVEN FAVORABLE AIR MASS IN FOREGOING INFLOW REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD... 40419522 40249671 39919700 39099743 38889766 38759804 38799875 39469966 40060028 40660142 41130114 41800087 43450070 43459815 41969832 42159520 42119437 41909337 41559286 40979259 40369278 40319422 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 07:47:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 02:47:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280758.j5S7wo5P011587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280757 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-280930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1518 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB THROUGH WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 541...544... VALID 280757Z - 280930Z THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS FROM ERN NEB INTO WRN IA...BUT OVERALL TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN MN SWWD THROUGH NERN AND SWRN NEB. A MYRIAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXISTS S OF THE FRONT INCLUDING A STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN IA NWWD THROUGH ERN NEB. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SURGING EWD THROUGH S CNTRL NEB. ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLY NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THESE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS RESERVOIR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY FROM NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA IS EXHAUSTED NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID... 41779506 40529566 40309702 40379799 41179780 42269751 42979616 43419491 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 16:58:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 11:58:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281710.j5SH9x4f019457@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281708 MIZ000-281915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1519 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MICHIGAN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 281708Z - 281915Z SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH ISSUANCE. COLD FRONT NEAR APN WSWWD ACROSS LWR MI PENINSULA TO VICINITY MBL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE S. AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT HAS NOW BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE REMAINING CIN AS MLCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WITH ABOUT 20KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVOLVE INTO MULTI-CLUSTER CONVECTION. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. ADDITIONALLY THE STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH THAT SOME TRAINING COULD OCCUR WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..HALES.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 43898631 44388564 45098365 44608339 42958339 42228465 42548627 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 16:59:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 11:59:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281710.j5SHAfxf019800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281710 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281709 NDZ000-MTZ000-281915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1520 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MT...NW/N CNTRL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281709Z - 281915Z WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST THROUGH NORTH OF WOLF POINT MT APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO ZONE OF STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT... ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FORCING WILL DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 21Z. CAPE FOR PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WEAK...BUT BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DEW POINTS NEAR 60F...HAS BEEN ADVECTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MONTANA BORDER AREA PAST FEW HOURS. CONTINUED NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THIS AIR MASS APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. STORMS WILL BE BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...BUT RISK FOR AT LEAST LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... 48330586 48920472 48700313 48790153 48710087 48080021 47320062 47250211 47480404 47540521 47770582 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 17:38:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 12:38:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281749.j5SHnjCY012291@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281749 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281748 COZ000-WYZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-281815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1521 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN UT...WRN CO...NE AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281748Z - 281815Z WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER REMAINS STRONG AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES 50+ KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ON SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF JET... AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS...HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LEE OF THE WASATCH PAST FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO INCREASINGLY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN UTAH...WHERE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS. WITH FURTHER HEATING AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...POTENTIAL FOR BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE AS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND APPROACHES THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER AREA BY AROUND 21Z. ..KERR.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC... 37821267 38711258 40661072 40980978 41100888 40530805 39570849 38180868 37150912 36580967 36491054 37131098 37181165 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 17:38:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 12:38:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281750.j5SHo7X9012517@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281708 MIZ000-281915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1519 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MICHIGAN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 281708Z - 281915Z SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH ISSUANCE. COLD FRONT NEAR APN WSWWD ACROSS LWR MI PENINSULA TO VICINITY MBL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE S. AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT HAS NOW BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE REMAINING CIN AS MLCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WITH ABOUT 20KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVOLVE INTO MULTI-CLUSTER CONVECTION. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. ADDITIONALLY THE STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH THAT SOME TRAINING COULD OCCUR WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..HALES.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 43898631 44388564 45098365 44608339 42958339 42228465 42548627  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 17:39:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 12:39:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281750.j5SHoZov012822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281710 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281709 NDZ000-MTZ000-281915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1520 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MT...NW/N CNTRL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281709Z - 281915Z WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST THROUGH NORTH OF WOLF POINT MT APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO ZONE OF STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT... ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FORCING WILL DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 21Z. CAPE FOR PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WEAK...BUT BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DEW POINTS NEAR 60F...HAS BEEN ADVECTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MONTANA BORDER AREA PAST FEW HOURS. CONTINUED NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THIS AIR MASS APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. STORMS WILL BE BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...BUT RISK FOR AT LEAST LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... 48330586 48920472 48700313 48790153 48710087 48080021 47320062 47250211 47480404 47540521 47770582  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 18:05:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 13:05:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281817.j5SIH8fM030563@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281749 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281748 COZ000-WYZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-281815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1521 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN UT...WRN CO...NE AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281748Z - 281815Z WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER REMAINS STRONG AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES 50+ KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ON SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF JET... AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS...HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LEE OF THE WASATCH PAST FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO INCREASINGLY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN UTAH...WHERE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS. WITH FURTHER HEATING AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...POTENTIAL FOR BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE AS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND APPROACHES THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER AREA BY AROUND 21Z. ..KERR.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC... 37821267 38711258 40661072 40980978 41100888 40530805 39570849 38180868 37150912 36580967 36491054 37131098 37181165  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 18:25:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 13:25:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281837.j5SIbGnV011298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281836 MTZ000-WYZ000-282030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1522 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL MT/N CNTRL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281836Z - 282030Z ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING SOUTH/EAST OF LEWISTOWN...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITHIN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT CAPPING MID- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MORE SPECIFICALLY NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THE BIG HORNS. THIS IS WHERE STRONG DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW IS BECOMING FOCUSED...DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. OROGRAPHIC FORCING SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL STORMS BY 20-21Z...WHEN MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG. GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 46471005 47030939 47140812 46230660 45430601 44500623 44300706 44360803 44700890 45200976 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 19:17:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 14:17:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281929.j5SJTEKj015723@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281918 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-282115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1523 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IND/OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281918Z - 282115Z ...TSTMS MAY PERIODICALLY PRODUCE PULSE TYPE SEVERE WEATHER...BUT MORE ORGANIZED THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED... CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS IND/OH SO FAR HAS BEEN RATHER DISORGANIZED AS EVIDENCED BY PULSE NATURE OF STORMS NOTED ON LOCAL RADARS AND MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THERE IS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE RATHER COOL...AROUND -9C FROM THE 12Z WILMINGTON SOUNDING...WHICH SUPPORTS STEEP LAPSE RATES. FLOW ALOFT THOUGH IS WEAK...WHICH WILL TEND TO DISCOURAGE STORM ORGANIZATION. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-2500 J/KG...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS...THOUGH SHORT LIVED...UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A COLD POOL...THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WOULD DEVELOP...AND A WATCH WOULD BE CONSIDERED. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. ..TAYLOR.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 39628660 40578705 41138670 40478455 40708272 41008082 39968056 39138156 38568260 38908441 38728531  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 19:22:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 14:22:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281933.j5SJXibd019049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281932 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281932 NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-282130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1524 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281932Z - 282130Z TIMING OF INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WWS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG... WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. INHIBITION APPEARS WEAKEST WHERE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE IS ENHANCED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...AND THIS TERRAIN FEATURE MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. JETLET IN BELT OF FLOW EXTENDING OUT OF TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS ALREADY PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE BLACK HILLS AREA...WITH ANOTHER JET STREAK UPSTREAM NOSING ACROSS THE WYOMING/COLORADO FRONT RANGE. FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES COULD SUPPORT INITIATION OF ACTIVITY AS EARLY AS 21-22Z. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 45270390 44500203 43830091 43380028 43000201 42490258 41860251 41570341 43070393 44620455 44980445 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 19:51:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 14:51:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506282002.j5SK2cPa005137@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282001 KSZ000-COZ000-282100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282001Z - 282100Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. ZONE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/ASCENT EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT BASIN TROUGH. THIS ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...NEAR CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FORCING HAS SUPPORTED RECENT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...TO THE NORTHWEST OF LIBERAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND DEVELOP NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME. CAPE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS MAY LIMIT VIGOR OF UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100F...VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...AND POSSIBLY EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF LARGER SCALE COLD POOL WITH STRONG WIND THREAT. ..KERR.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... 37800191 38200122 39280125 39900066 39749940 38839896 37919957 37430016 37090107 37060253 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 21:40:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 16:40:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506282151.j5SLpNRJ012287@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282150 COZ000-WYZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-282315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1526 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AZ...WRN CO...CENTRAL/ERN UT...PORTIONS EXTREME SRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 545... VALID 282150Z - 282315Z CONVECTIVE WIND DAMAGE THREAT HAS SPREAD EWD INTO PORTIONS WRN CO ...ACROSS ERN COUNTIES OF WW 545. AREA FARTHER NE OVER W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL CO IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NOW OVER PORTIONS W-CENTRAL AND SERN CO WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OVER MORE OF N-CENTRAL AND W-CENTRAL CO DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINTAINING DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL. MEASURED SEVERE GUST OF 54 KT HIT GJT WITHIN PAST HOUR...WITH DAMAGE AND HIGHER PUBLIC ESTIMATES NEARBY...AND 48 KT GUST WAS CLOCKED AT CNY. BROAD PLUME OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW EJECTING NEWD FROM AZ. AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...PRIOR STRONG SFC INSOLATION HAS RESULTED IN WEAK CINH AND FAVORABLY STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS REGION. VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW...ALONG WITH WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS. THIS WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLY DAMAGING GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FROM VALLEY BOTTOMS UP WWD OR SWWD FACING SLOPES. MEANWHILE...SYNOPTIC DRYING HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF NRN AZ...AND THAT AREA HAS BEEN CLEARED FROM WW PER COORDINATION W/FGZ. OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS DRYING WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION INTO SERN UT/SWRN CO...REDUCING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC... 39331211 40791181 41201098 41720824 41670678 41030606 39990561 38330623 37150797 36970902 36780995 37051193 38681214 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 22:05:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 17:05:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506282216.j5SMGp5C027314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282213 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-282345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN CO...SERN WY...SRN NEB PANHANDLE...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282213Z - 282345Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRYLINE FROM WRN-MOST NEB PANHANDLE TO BETWEEN SNY-AKO...THEN SWD ALONG KS/CO BORDER AREA...THROUGH HEAT LOW OVER SERN CO. QUASISTATIONARY CONFLUENCE LINE IS EVIDENT IN SFC WINDS AND GLD REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY...FROM INVOF SCOTT/WALLACE COUNTIES KS NWWD...CROSSING DRYLINE OVER KIT CARSON COUNTY CO AND EXTENDING FARTHER NW TO NEAR AKO. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED BOTH OVER SERN WY INVOF CYS...AND BETWEEN AKO-GXY OVER NERN CO. AS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS DRYLINE AND INTO LARGER SBCAPE...INTENSIFICATION TO SEVERE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE. DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY OCCUR ALONG CONFLUENCE/DRY LINES. HOT SFC TEMPS AND VERY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE EVIDENT E OF DRYLINE -- BOTH N AND S OF CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY...THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS GREATEST N OF LATTER BOUNDARY WHERE SFC FLOW IS ELY-NELY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...AND BACKED FLOW FROM EXTREME NWRN KS NNWWD OVER NEB PANHANDLE IS CONTRIBUTING TO 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR. THIS INDICATES SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS SUSTAINED TO SFC THROUGH SUCH A WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42020085 41200074 40180095 38650095 39130275 40080431 41360486 41950427 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 23:16:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 18:16:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506282327.j5SNRxHT030188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282326 SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-290100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1528 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SD...N-CENTRAL NEB AND NRN NEB PANHANDLE...SWRN ND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 547... VALID 282326Z - 290100Z CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN SD...PRIMARILY IN BROKEN LINE FROM ERN BUTTE COUNTY SEWD TO NEAR PHP...THEN SWD THROUGH JACKSON COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH FULL RANGE OF SEVERE POSSIBLE. ALSO...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING INVOF SFC WARM FRONT/CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDING SEWD FROM W-CENTRAL SD ACROSS CHARLES MIX COUNTY REGION. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM SHERIDAN COUNTY NEB NEWD TO PORTIONS BENNETT COUNTY SD SHOULD MOVE EWD OVER CHERRY COUNTY AND AREAS JUST N OF NEB/SD BORDER. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR BOTH BOW AND SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FROM MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS N-CENTRAL NEB AND CENTRAL/SRN SD SHOW WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUITABLE FOR MAINTAINING SEVERE HAIL/DOWNDRAFTS TO SFC...BENEATH 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. CINH MIN IS EVIDENT INVOF BOUNDARY OVER SRN SD. ACCORDINGLY...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE TSTMS IS POSSIBLE FROM PHP ESEWD ACROSS CHARLES MIX COUNTY...WHERE TCU ARE EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY. MID 60S TO LOW 70S DEW POINTS IN FROM MO RIVER EWD CONTRIBUTE TO NEARLY 4000 J/KG MLCAPE. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ALONG AND N OF BOUNDARY BY BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...RESULTING IN 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM AGL LAYER...AS WELL AS 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...GGW... 42040083 42030335 47050411 47030147 46110101 45079895 44299694 42919685 42749838 42139961 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 23:39:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 18:39:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506282350.j5SNonU0006164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282349 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-290145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 546... VALID 282349Z - 290145Z PRIND CONVECTION NOW OVER E-CENTRAL/SERN MT WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF REMAINDER LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE STILL IN MT. THEREFORE REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION OF WW 546. BROKEN BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 2345Z FROM ERN PETROLEUM/GARFIELD COUNTIES SSEWD ACROSS TREASURE/ERN BIG HORN COUNTIES -- WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEVERE GUSTS/HAIL AND RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES. SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES EACH ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCH DIAMETER IN BIG HORN COUNTY DURING PAST HOUR. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGER WITH ACTIVITY OVER SRN PORTION OF BAND...WHERE COMBINATION OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS GREATEST. ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEE-SIDE SFC LOW -- ANALYZED OVER N-CENTRAL WY -- WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN STRONG ELY SFC WND COMPONENT OVER SERN MT...ENLARGING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 25-35 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES 2500-3000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF E-CENTRAL/SERN MT INVOF SFC MOIST AXIS...WHERE DEW POINTS REACH INTO MID 60S F. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 45240397 45040846 48790848 49020395 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 00:34:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 19:34:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506290046.j5T0k3k0030486@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290044 COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-290145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1530 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN UT AND WRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 545... VALID 290044Z - 290145Z DEEP-LAYER DRYING HAD MOVED ACROSS MORE OF SRN UT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION INTO SWRN CO AND SERN UT. THIS PROCESS WILL END SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM SW-NE. AHEAD OF DRYING...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE STABILIZED BY CLOUDS/PRECIP FROM PAST AND PRESENT CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS FACING SW...SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY OVER ERN UT AND WRN CO FROM REMAINING ACTIVITY. THEREFORE...WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION. ..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...SLC... 40720669 40080627 39410612 38340614 37290665 36960748 37250948 38591020 40431063 40900930 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 01:38:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 20:38:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506290149.j5T1nrWp027321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290148 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-290345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1531 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0848 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...NRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290148Z - 290345Z TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SWATH FROM W-CENTRAL KS TO NWRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE EVENING. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM SRN ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES...PRIND LARGEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE WITH TSTMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS WRN KS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ACTIVITY IS FCST TO SPREAD/MOVE NEWD INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...AND INTO STRENGTHENING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SUPPORTED BY 30-40 KT LLJ. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES 7.5-8.5 DEG C/KM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER REGION. INFLOW-LAYER BUOYANCY WILL TRANSITION FROM SFC-BASED WITH CONSIDERABLE CINH -- AS EVIDENT IN 00Z DDC RAOB -- TO ELEVATED MUCAPES APCHG 1500 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RAOB AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. DEEP-LAYER ABSOLUTE SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER WEAK - I.E. 25-30 KT 0-6 KM LAYER SHEAR...HOWEVER EFFECTIVE SHEARS MAY REACH INTO 30-40 KT RANGE. PRESENCE OF LARGE CINH INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE SOON...PERHAPS CONSOLIDATING INTO DOMINANT MULTICELL CLUSTER. ..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35630302 36480269 37230176 38130149 39050172 39390172 39890116 39980050 39939991 39349934 38889891 38469887 37939887 37249936 36879977 36310046 35470247 35270277 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 03:05:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 22:05:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506290317.j5T3HA83003375@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290315 SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-290415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL SD...N-CENTRAL/NWRN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547...549... VALID 290315Z - 290415Z REPLACEMENT SEVERE TSTM WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT HOUR FOR MUCH OF AREA COVERED BY WW 547...AS WELL AS WRN PORTIONS WW 549 -- GENERALLY W OF MO RIVER. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING...AND RESULTANT FORMATION/DEEPENING OF NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER. SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING GUST THREAT CONTINUES WITH ANY NEW CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER WW AREA. SAME WITH EXISTING CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN NEB PANHANDLE...AND WITH ISOLATED CLUSTER OF TSTMS BACKBUILDING ACROSS PORTIONS ZIEBACH COUNTY. SFC AND 850 MB ANALYSES INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS REMAINING ALIGNED SE-NW...DIAGONALLY ACROSS SD FROM YKN-2WX. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE...RICH MOISTURE AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BUOYANCY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES COMMONLY 2000-3000 J/KG. ROUGHLY 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INDICATED AS WELL...BASED ON MODIFIED LBF/RAP RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL CINH OVER AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF FORCED ASCENT ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SURGES. ..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42060262 42720288 43300244 43730215 44860243 45270315 45410348 45710370 45920326 45980183 45940114 45550028 44889908 44279868 43619825 43089856 42599968 42210056 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 03:23:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 22:23:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506290335.j5T3Z20e011618@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290334 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290334 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-290500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN NEB...NERN CO...SERN PANHANDLE OF NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 548... VALID 290334Z - 290500Z INITIAL SEVERE TSTMS OVER LOGAN COUNTY CO DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO MORE UNSTABLE/MOIST AIR MASS...BUT ALSO MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MODIFIED LBF RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 2000-3000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT ALSO STRONG CINH. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUSLY SEVERE FRONT RANGE CONVECTION IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS KIMBALL COUNTY NEB...EXTREME WRN LOGAN/ERN MORGAN COUNTIES CO AS OF 315Z. GLACIATING CONVECTIVE TOWERS HAVE BEEN INDICATED OVER MORGAN COUNTY ON IR IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN WW IS NONEXISTENT ATTM...HOWEVER AIR MASS ACROSS WW AREA REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE FROM ANY CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THEREFORE WRN PORTION WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR TIME BEING. HOWEVER...SUCH CONVECTION WOULD NOT REACH ERN COUNTIES OF WW BEFORE SCHEDULED 5Z EXPIRATION...FROM HITCHCOCK NWD TO MCPHERSON AND FARTHER E...AND THOSE AREAS MAY BE CLEARED FROM THIS WW. ..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 39979988 39960273 41900318 41890028 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 04:02:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 23:02:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506290414.j5T4E0eR028325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290411 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-290545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1534 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN/CENTRAL ND...EXTREME NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550... VALID 290411Z - 290545Z MAINTAIN CURRENT WW ALONG/AHEAD OF SERN MT MCS. ADDITIONALLY...PORTIONS ND E OF WW 550 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ANOTHER SEVERE TSTM WW. ARCHING BAND OF TSTMS WITH HISTORY OF NUMEROUS SEVERE WIND/HAIL REPORTS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOVING NEWD ACROSS SERN MT INTO SWRN ND. NRN PORTION OF COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS OVER NERN MT/NWRN ND. HOWEVER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE ACROSS REMAINDER SERN MT AND WRN/CENTRAL ND...BOTH FOR MCS AND FOR NEWER DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC FORCING ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN ND. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN ID/WRN MT -- HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE EWD. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES...FOREGOING PRESSURE/HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE...NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN PORTIONS WY/MT BORDER...LIFTING NEWD INTO SWRN ND. ASSOCIATED BACKING/STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL YIELD STRONG STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR...ABOVE STABLE SFC LAYER. LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS -- INITIALLY ALIGNED FROM SERN SD NWWD TO SERN MT -- SHOULD SHIFT NWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL ND NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WAA/MOIST ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BOOST ELEVATED MUCAPES INTO 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE OVER MUCH OF SRN/WRN ND. THEREFORE...EXPECT MCS TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF THAT REGION...WITH THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 49010006 48669967 47639931 46889934 46619951 46269996 46080044 46020111 45540283 45280408 45130494 45270548 45480557 45810499 46270480 47140495 47890545 48990674 48980404 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 06:20:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 01:20:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506290631.j5T6Vg9l017707@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290630 NEZ000-SDZ000-290800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1535 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB AND SRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290630Z - 290800Z THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH STORMS MOVING THROUGH CHERRY COUNTY NEB...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO EXTREME SRN SD. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO GRADUAL WEAKENING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NEXT HOUR OR SO AS STORMS MOVE EWD THROUGH CHERRY COUNTY. EARLY THIS MORNING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CHERRY COUNTY IN WRN NEB SSWWD INTO NERN CO. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ON THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER CHERRY COUNTY MOVING EWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. STRONG INSTABILITY PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS WITH MUCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC AND NAM OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML EXISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS AND SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE PROLONGED SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...UNR... 41920124 43210116 43199938 42359897 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 07:37:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 02:37:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506290748.j5T7mH27013657@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290747 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290747 SDZ000-290915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1536 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 551... VALID 290747Z - 290915Z CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER N CNTRL SD MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE NEWD NEXT HOUR OR TWO. STORMS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING E OF WW 551 INTO NERN SD...BUT ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION N OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL SD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. WITH A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP E OF WW 551 INTO PARTS OF NERN SD NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS SUGGESTS A WW E OF WW 551 WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED. ..DIAL.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... 44439842 45020070 45670062 45939871 45329774 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 08:52:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 03:52:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506290904.j5T940IE017464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290903 NDZ000-291030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0403 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 552... VALID 290903Z - 291030Z MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS PERSISTS WITH LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL ND. OTHER STORMS MAY MOVE INTO SERN ND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH A THREAT OF PRODUCING MAINLY LARGE HAIL. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS TROUGH CNTRL ND FROM MINOT SWD TO BISMARK. THE PORTION OF THE LINE OVER CNTRL ND IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 25 KT. THE LINE REMAINS SEMI-ORGANIZED WITH A ROTATING COMMA HEAD OBSERVED NEAR MINOT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY PRESENCE OF A COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION OVER NERN SD AND WILL LIKELY LIFT NEWD INTO SERN ND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 47709897 46169787 46009972 46220063 47320022 48150044 48600036 48819967 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 15:51:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 10:51:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506291602.j5TG2M7U021600@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291601 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291601 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-291700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291601Z - 291700Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. WARM SECTOR SOUTHEAST OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IS VERY MOIST AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE HEATING. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRENGTH OF CAP FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS IS STILL A CONCERN...BUT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF DEEPENING LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THIS. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF ABERDEEN...JUST AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DRYING...NOSING INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THAT...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD THE JAMESTOWN/FARGO ND AND ALEXANDRIA MN AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS...STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 18-20Z...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS LIKELY. ..KERR.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 45789932 46659878 46599685 46319535 45459513 44789539 44219632 44439752 44619827 44999910 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 16:04:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 11:04:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506291615.j5TGFUVm031019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291614 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291614 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-291815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1539 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO CNTRL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291614Z - 291815Z ...STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO CNTRL PA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN...ISOLD SVR THREAT PERSISTS AND A WATCH MAY BE POSSIBLE... CURRENT WV IMAGES SUGGEST MCV APPROACHING SRN VT WITH A MORE WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL OH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOW/MID 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/ . THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT NOW EXTENDING ACROSS SERN ONTARIO/NRN NY WILL BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR STORMS THIS AFTN. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM GRAY ME AND ALBANY INDICATE ABOUT 20-25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 IN...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH TRAINING/MERGING CELLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT...SO DOWNDRAFT CAPE WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THOSE AREAS WHERE INSOLATION IS GREATEST. WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH ONGOING STORMS DEVELOPING FROM ERN PA THROUGH SERN NY...OR POSSIBLY LATER THIS AFTN IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH IN OH VALLEY REGION. ..TAYLOR.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 43916979 41977098 40537433 39637755 41167766 42687600 43747360 44057268 44507105 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 17:46:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 12:46:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506291757.j5THvN3W001681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291756 INZ000-ILZ000-292000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1540 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN IL INTO CNTRL IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291756Z - 292000Z ...THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NRN/ERN IL INTO CNTRL IND... DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF DBQ NEAR FEP/JOT IN NRN IL AND THEN INTO NRN IND WITH A LAKE BREEZE EVIDENT ACROSS EXTREME NERN IL WEST OF ORD. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NERN IL AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH VERY MOIST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 18Z SOUNDING FROM DAVENPORT IA SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 25 KT...SO ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE FAVORED GIVEN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ..TAYLOR.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 39148503 39438823 41528976 42068972 42068886 41398730 40958517 39878492 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 18:42:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 13:42:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506291853.j5TIrgFL005380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291852 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1541 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND...ERN SD...WRN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 553... VALID 291852Z - 292045Z CONTINUE WW. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...IS ONGOING NEAR ABERDEEN SD. THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN. STRONGER 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOW FOCUSED ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF LOW INTO AREAS OF MINNESOTA EAST OF FARGO. ...AND NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATION OF SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. WARM FRONT...JUST EAST OF LOW...WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. NEW STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY 20-21Z...ALONG PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHEAST OF LOW...AS IT SHIFTS INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MINNESOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS PIVOTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...WITH STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 45489922 46089865 46199760 46039662 44809578 43909640 43959716 44539786 44619836 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 19:35:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 14:35:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506291946.j5TJkiIZ008636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291946 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291945 MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1542 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...KS/SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291945Z - 292145Z ...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BEING MONITORED ACROSS KS AND SERN NEB. WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY WITHIN AN HOUR... LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM GARDEN CITY TO JUST NORTH OF HAYS AND THEN INTO SERN NEB. FIRST SIGNS OF SFC BASED CUMULUS ARE NOTED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...COINCIDENT WITH DEEPER MIXING. AIRMASS IS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S TO AROUND 100 AT RUSSELL. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 KT OF FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE TSTMS ONCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS COMPLETELY ERODED. IN ADDITION 18Z NAM SUGGESTS A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..TAYLOR.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 37349826 37000191 38290198 38680070 39229934 40869681 40539568 38319628 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 20:27:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 15:27:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506292038.j5TKck9V012902@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292037 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1543 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 553... VALID 292037Z - 292130Z SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING NORTHEAST/EAST OF WW 553. WW 553 IS BEING REPLACED WITH NEW TORNADO WW 554. CONSOLIDATION OF ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...CONTINUES FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER SYSTEM IS NOW UNDERWAY...WITH LOW CENTER NOW BELOW 1000 MB EAST/NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN SD. SHEAR PROFILES ALONG STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET EAST OF CYCLONE HAVE BECOME STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF MINNESOTA...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY AS MOIST WARM SECTOR ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF SURFACE LOW...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT INCREASING/INTENSIFYING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER. GIVEN FAVORABLE FORCING...LARGE SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE THIS EVENING ACROSS MINNESOTA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING HOW FAST TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FROM ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT...BUT THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT RISK FOR TORNADOES...BEFORE BROADER SCALE WIND THREAT BECOMES PREDOMINANT LATER THIS EVENING ..KERR.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 46299765 47429702 47429473 45969404 44219478 43539602 43909664 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 23:26:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 18:26:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506292337.j5TNbsHe011235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292337 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-300100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1544 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MN/NWRN IA/WRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 554... VALID 292337Z - 300100Z PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN PARTS OF MN...WITH MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EVIDENT OVER SWRN MN COUNTIES OF RENVILLE...REDWOOD...COTTONWOOD...JACKSON. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WHERE FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ PERSISTS. THE WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...AND FAVORABLE CLOCKWISE TURNING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH AT MPX WITH 0-1 KM SRH GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2 SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD AT 30-40 KT REACHING THE ERN EDGE OF WW 554 IN THE 0030-0130Z TIME FRAME. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE COOL TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE STRONG EAST/WEST THERMAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF DLH. THUS...NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF MN AND WRN WI WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO EAST OF CURRENT WW. ..WEISS.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... 47029411 47119356 46559234 45639192 43809123 43499193 43529311 43849367 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 23:39:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 18:39:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506292351.j5TNp67H016959@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292350 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/WRN IA/CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 555... VALID 292350Z - 300115Z ...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN... A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST OF FORT DODGE IA SWWD TO HAYS KS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 60-70 MPH. SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH PERIODIC LARGE HAIL. THE AIRMASS ACROSS IA AND SERN NEB IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S/70S. FARTHER SOUTHWEST...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DEEPLY MIXED WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S. WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS FAR SOUTHWEST...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ACROSS SE NEB WHERE ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. ..TAYLOR.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 39099568 37879843 37789970 38570020 39479798 41529693 41719589 41709396 41619410 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 01:50:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 20:50:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506300201.j5U21wdo005088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300159 IAZ000-300330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1546 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0859 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 300159Z - 300330Z MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE INTO REMAINDER OF CNTRL/ERN IA EAST OF EXISTING WW 555...WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. PRIMARY HAZARD EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. MULTIPLE SEVERE TSTM CLUSTERS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE ONGOING AT 0145Z FROM NEAR WEBSTER CITY/FORT DODGE VICINITIES...INTO SW IA NEAR SHENANDOAH/RED OAK AREAS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE /REF 00Z DVN OBSERVED RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS/. WITH CONTINUAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...IT APPEARS STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD INTO ERN IA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FROM I-80 NORTHWARD. DES MOINES WSR-88D VAD/SLATER IA PROFILER FEATURE VERY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED/ISOLD TORNADOES /0-1 KM BULK SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KTS/. WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. ..GUYER.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43399261 43399173 43349131 42269143 40729243 40709330 40689439 41539398 42529347 43229314 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 02:13:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 21:13:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506300224.j5U2OKNP014995@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300223 MNZ000-IAZ000-300430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1547 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL IA/S CNTRL MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 554... VALID 300223Z - 300430Z A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN MN WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING INTO N CNTRL IA. MN STORMS HAVE OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITED SIGNS OF ROTATION...AND LATEST MPX VAD PROFILE MAINTAINS WELL-DEFINED CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPH WITH SRH EXCEEDING 400 M2/S2 IN THE LOWEST 1-3 KM. CONTINUED FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD ACROSS SRN MN SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT /INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES/ WILL PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ENEWD 35 KT INTO THE WRN PARTS OF WW 557 IN THE 03-04Z PERIOD INDICATING WW 554 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 04Z. ..WEISS.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX... 42959460 43669478 44719479 45709458 46319410 45719388 44599364 43659361 42949382 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 03:18:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 22:18:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506300330.j5U3U65Z011053@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300328 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1548 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE NEB/NE KS/FAR NW MO INTO WCNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 555... VALID 300328Z - 300430Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF SEVERE WATCH 555 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 04Z. ONGOING CONVECTION /AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT/ IN SW IA/WCNTRL IA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT EWD OUT OF WW 555 AT THIS TIME...WHILE STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR NW MO SHORTLY. FURTHER SW ACROSS FAR SE NEB/NE KS...TSTMS ONGOING NORTH OF CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT. IN THIS AREA...COMBINATION OF LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/GLANCING DYNAMIC ASCENT SUGGESTS DOWNWARD CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TREND WILL CONTINUE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH EPISODIC LARGE HAIL MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN NE KS. ..GUYER.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39819791 40099613 41319533 41349488 40639449 39909440 39139535 39089841 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 04:12:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 23:12:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506300424.j5U4O47C031912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300423 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300423 WIZ000-300530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1549 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 300423Z - 300530Z SMALL BOW ECHO SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OVER EXTREME NERN IA MOVING ENEWD 50-60 KT TOWARD VERNON AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN WI...WITH SEPARATE BOWING SEGMENTS INDICATED OVER EXTREME WEST CENTRAL WI. THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST OF WWS 557 AND 558 WITHIN THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES...AND A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF THIS AREA INTO CNTRL WI. ..WEISS.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43699061 44859109 45609111 46039040 46058960 45528901 43988882 43088889 42608935 42539006 42809042 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 04:44:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 23:44:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506300455.j5U4tqAU010939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300455 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300454 WIZ000-MNZ000-300700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN/NWRN WI/WRN ALS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 556... VALID 300454Z - 300700Z CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING NEWD INTO NWRN WI IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. EAST/WEST QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM SRN AITKIN COUNTY MN INTO BAYFIELD COUNTY WI IS EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE NRN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT...WITH STORMS GENERALLY WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER/STABLE AIR MASS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO NWRN WI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..WEISS.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... 45929318 46389296 46729217 47079170 47169116 46759062 46029064 45679085 45649204 45799283 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 12:17:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 07:17:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506301228.j5UCSd1G032149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301227 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-301430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LOWER MI...NRN IND THROUGH NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301227Z - 301430Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND IF A GENERAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS OBSERVED...A WW MIGHT BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MORNING A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM WRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO NWRN IND. THE LINE IS MOVING EWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. STORMS WITHIN THE LINE APPEAR TO BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...AND LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FROM ERN LOWER MI INTO OH. THEREFORE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING...AND STORMS MIGHT UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. ..DIAL.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41438614 42528502 43528402 42928288 41218402 41008554 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 15:23:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 10:23:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506301535.j5UFZ8Kq020677@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301534 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301533 MIZ000-OHZ000-301730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1552 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561... VALID 301533Z - 301730Z LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ADVANCED EWD EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM WRN OAKLAND COUNTY SWWD INTO WRN LENAWEE COUNTY IN MI...THRU FULTON...HENRY...PUTNAM...NWRN ALLEN AND MERCER COUNTIES IN OH. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG. SLIGHT PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS NRN OHIO. THUS...WITH CONTINUED HEATING AHEAD OF THE LINE...THE AREA EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STEEPENING LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THEREFORE WILL NEED TO MONITOR NRN HALF OF OHIO FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41158474 41378468 41598459 41908458 42168453 42558404 42748376 42808363 42828322 42818294 42828244 42698240 42438257 41828284 41488302 40978323 40758333 40778357 40758420 40758476 40938478 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 17:38:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 12:38:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506301750.j5UHo7gL013214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301747 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301746 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-301945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1553 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...KS/NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301746Z - 301945Z ...AREA OF STORMS ACROSS NERN KS/NRN MO IS BEING MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION... SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW IN ERN OK PANHANDLE THROUGH CNTRL KS AND SRN IA. HOWEVER...AREA OF CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS NE KS/NRN MO HAS RESULTED IN A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...WHICH LIES IN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION JUST NORTH OF SALINA AND EMPORIA. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING. SOUTH OF THE KS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 90S...CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. RECENT VAD WIND DATA FROM TOPEKA AS WELL AS KS PROFILER DATA SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 35-40 KT. INITIAL THREAT WITH ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT AS STORMS BECOME MORE DEEPLY ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. WATCH WILL BE LIKELY BY AROUND 21Z. ..TAYLOR.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 38939168 38259446 37869805 38799865 40079858 40839735 40979505 41019281 40819146 40439110 39629099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 18:17:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 13:17:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506301828.j5UISUfI006107@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301827 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-302030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN OH INTO NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562... VALID 301827Z - 302030Z LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTEND FROM THE CLE AREA SWWD ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...THEN SWD THRU THE CMH AREA THEN JUST N OF CINCINNATI. ACTIVITY IS WITHIN AREA OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...AND RAIN-COOLED AIR IS PRESSING ACTIVITY SEWD THRU CENTRAL OH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39818373 40118339 40738279 41398207 41838140 41898076 41907976 41737979 41258001 40888018 40328051 39918069 39628085 39668212 39598283 39618347 39638380 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 18:59:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 13:59:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506301910.j5UJAYUa031539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301909 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301909 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-302045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MI SWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL INDIANA AND EAST CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301909Z - 302045Z MONITORING SWRN LOWER MI...NRN/CENTRAL INDIANA AND EAST CENTRAL IL FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SKIES CLEARED BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 90 DEGREES...RESULTING IN MLCAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LAKE MI SWD INTO EXTREME NWRN INDIANA AND THEN SWD INTO CENTRAL. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS EWD MOVING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS SPEED MAX IN IA SHIFTS EWD AND STRENGTHENS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH AREA MAY STILL BE EXPERIENCING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MCS IN OH...EXPECT SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...WW WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ..IMY.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX... 39488884 41198724 43008608 42898510 42088459 41578462 38188526 37918665 38548819 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 19:33:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 14:33:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506301944.j5UJirF0021504@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301943 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301943 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-302045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1556 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO AND SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301943Z - 302045Z ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ACROSS SRN MO/SRN IL MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND/HAIL...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME DOWNDRAFT DOMINATED...WITH SHORT LIVED WIND/HAIL THREATS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION STRETCHED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR 50 S SZL TO TBN TO MVN. THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. WEAK NLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND SLY TO THE SOUTH HAS RESULTED IN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. GIVEN WEAK CAP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD STORMS TO DEVELOP NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AN ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD MERGE...REDUCING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..IMY.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 37919423 37719245 37819079 38348910 38398833 37778737 36748926 36369137 36669331 37189439 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 20:18:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 15:18:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506302029.j5UKTYKL016591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302028 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-302230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1557 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS/NW OK/EXTREME NERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302028Z - 302230Z ...AREA BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE WW... SFC LOW IS DEEPENING ACROSS SW KS BETWEEN PTT AND DDC...WITH SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD TO GUYMON AND FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EWD FROM GCK TO NORTH OF EMP. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INDICATIVE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/DEEPER MIXING. STORMS SOUTH OF P28 ARE STILL ELEVATED ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST STRONG UPDRAFTS. AIRMASS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. 18Z SOUNDING FROM LAMONT OK SHOWED JUST A WEAK CAP AROUND 700 MB...AND WITH SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE INHIBITION IS ERODED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GETTING STRONGER AS WELL...WITH KS PROFILERS INDICATING VALUES AROUND 40 KT. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS LIKELY TO FORM LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. ..TAYLOR.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36329762 35889975 35980080 36810135 37930107 38500013 38649892 38149799 37299746 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 20:37:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 15:37:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506302048.j5UKmBvm027813@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302047 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-302215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1558 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KY/EXTREME SRN OH AND WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564... VALID 302047Z - 302215Z STRONG/SEVERE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SSEWD AT 30 KT THROUGH WW 564. AT 2045Z...STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM 30 E LEX TO 30 NW CRW TO PKB. ALTHOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED DURING THE PAST HOUR...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH A HOT AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GIVEN THE ORGANIZED COLD POOL/BUBBLE HIGH... DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..IMY.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 38748412 39558099 39668015 38368032 37688166 36998350 37258411 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 21:04:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 16:04:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506302115.j5ULFhvq013571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302114 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-302315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0414 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302114Z - 302315Z ...STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO FOOTHILLS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING... UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME HAS BEGUN ACROSS ERN CO/NERN NM...WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 50S IN SE CO. SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING OUT OF NERN MN IS INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO AROUND 40-50 KT PER ERN CO PROFILER DATA. WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT...SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS DEWPOINTS AND WIND FIELDS RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS AFTN...WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE CO FOOTHILLS/ERN PLAINS. ..TAYLOR.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36300280 36520496 39490591 40660540 40840450 40680310 39610262 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 22:35:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 17:35:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506302246.j5UMkecq032020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302245 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-010015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1560 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...KS/WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 563... VALID 302245Z - 010015Z INSTABILITY AXIS NOW EXTENDS FROM MEDICINE LODGE TO NEAR TOPEKA WHERE MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO NEARLY 3000 J/KG. SFC BOUNDARY NOTED ON WICHITA RADAR IS MOVING SWD...AND RECENTLY HELPED TRIGGER SFC BASED STORMS EAST OF HUTCHINSON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY...AS BOTH VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS AND COMPOSITE RADAR SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER ROLLS MOVING NWD INTO SCNTRL KS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FARTHER NORTH...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS...WITH GOLFBALL HAIL RECENTLY REPORTED IN SHAWNEE COUNTY KS. UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TOWARD MANHATTAN...WHILE IT ALSO MOVES SEWD ON THE ERN FLANK ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SCNTRL MO. ..TAYLOR.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36379747 36489930 38189898 39219608 39299385 38409347 37919412 36999587 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 22:55:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 17:55:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506302306.j5UN6MTs008168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302305 VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-010030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1561 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV / PARTS OF NERN KY INTO FAR SWRN OH / WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564... VALID 302305Z - 010030Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW...THOUGH A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN AN ARC ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WRN PA SWD INTO SRN WV AND THEN WWD ACROSS ERN KY. IN THE PAST HOUR...NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG WRN EXTENSION OF THIS OUTFLOW...FROM CENTRAL KY NWD INTO FAR SWRN OH JUST W OF WW. ASIDE FROM NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WRN EXTENTION OF OUTFLOW...STORMS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. THOUGH THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...A LIMITED / LOW-END SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS AS CONVECTION MOVES SWD ACROSS ERN KY / SEWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF VA. THOUGH STORMS ALONG WRN EXTENSION OF OUTFLOW MAY ALSO POSE A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT...STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY DRIFT EWD / BECOME FURTHER UNDERCUT BY COOL OUTFLOW AIR. ATTM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ONGOING STORMS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION...WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL WW 564 PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 01/03Z EXPIRATION AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGES THROUGH REMAINING COUNTIES WITHIN WW. ..GOSS.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 39318434 38458401 37598287 37578199 38128130 39008037 39237992 38637930 38167947 37318029 36758161 36688264 36848387 37248425 38048474 39038489 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 23:05:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 18:05:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506302316.j5UNGoGK013112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302316 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-010045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI / NRN AND CENTRAL INDIANA / WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 565... VALID 302316Z - 010045Z STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WW...ACCOMPANIED BY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP / MOVE EWD ACROSS E CENTRAL AND NERN INDIANA ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS...THUS EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. WITH CONVECTION NEARING ERN PORTIONS OF WW...NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED E OF CURRENT WW INTO WRN OH. THOUGH LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS E OF WWD-MOVING OUTFLOW WHICH NOW EXTENDS N-S ACROSS THE ERN-MOST TIER OF INDIANA COUNTIES...SEVERE THREAT -- AT LEAST IN TERMS OF HAIL -- MAY EXTEND AS FAR EWD AS THE WRN THIRD OF OH. ..GOSS.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...ILX... 42908461 42748400 41668359 40908336 39708369 39208447 39418761 40798596 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 02:06:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 21:06:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506010216.j512GZiv013903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010215 TXZ000-010345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1095 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010215Z - 010345Z A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS THE DFW METRO AREA TO THE SOUTH OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 363 AND TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 364. LONG-TRACK BOWING MCS APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING ACROSS KNOX... HASKELL...STONEWALL...AND KENT COUNTIES IN NWRN TX. THIS COMPLEX WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MATURE CONVECTIVE COLD POOL WITH 40KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX DIRECTED INTO THE BACK OF THE BOW. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WAS MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH EVENING FWD RAOB INDICATING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INHIBITION/CAP. ADDITIONALLY... LOW LEVEL ELY INFLOW AND LARGER SCALE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVERLAYING THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING SEWD ALONG THE NW-SW INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 31849891 33489892 33509792 33509659 31879659 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 02:20:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 21:20:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506010230.j512UTPU020348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010229 FLZ000-010430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1096 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0929 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010229Z - 010430Z TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND WRN FL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. OFFSHORE MCS WAS MOVING EAST WITH WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTH OF TPA/TBW AREA NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE PENINSULA. STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITHIN VERY MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF MOVES SLOWLY EAST. LATEST VWP FROM TBW WAS SHOWING STRENGTHENING FLOW AND BACKED WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 BASED ON LATEST CELL MOTIONS. THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS MOVE ASHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27308208 27068242 27828285 29158241 29748141 29438116 28888133 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 02:39:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 21:39:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506010249.j512nSMC029624@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010248 TXZ000-OKZ000-010345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0948 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX/SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363... VALID 010248Z - 010345Z MOST INTENSE STORMS ACROSS THE SRN PART OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 363 APPEAR TO BE CONSOLIDATING ALONG FRONTAL/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. ONE OR TWO OF THESE CELLS COULD STILL PRODUCE HAIL OR A BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUST AS LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS STORMS IN A MARGINALLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A NEW WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE DFW AREA...BUT MOST OF WATCH 363 WILL PROBABLY BE CLEARED PRIOR TO 05Z EXPIRATION. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... 33789689 33539998 34009995 34289795 34779724 34889679 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 03:37:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 22:37:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506010347.j513lcsZ021729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010347 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010346 TXZ000-010545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1046 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND CNTRL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 364...365... VALID 010346Z - 010545Z VERY INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF NW AND NCNTRL TX LATE THIS EVENING AS SEVERE MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER THE REGION. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS STORMS MOVE GENERALLY SSEWD AT 10-20KT. ONE VERY LARGE CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION FROM MITCHELL AND NOLAN COUNTIES EAST ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS RUNNELS AND COLEMAN COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MORE DISCRETE CELLS EXIST ON OR EAST OF THE N-S STATIONARY/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WAS SITUATED ROUGHLY FROM COKE COUNTY ACROSS TOM GREEN...SCHLEICHER... AND SUTTON COUNTIES. ESELY CELL MOTION APPEARS TO RESULT IN REMOVING THE UPDRAFTS FROM THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOCATED IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THIS PROCESS..IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...MAY BE SLOWLY LIMITING SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY FEEDING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NEAR THE BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. AS COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN COMPLEX DEEPENS...SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND EVOLVE INTO LARGER-SCALE BOWING COMPLEX WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 30629864 30500077 31980080 32050223 33550222 33479898 32059893 32029872 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 04:19:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 23:19:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506010429.j514TFqA004065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010428 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010428 FLZ000-010600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 366... VALID 010428Z - 010600Z BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUES PROGRESSING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA TONIGHT. ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. SEVERAL LONG-TRACK ROTATING STORMS ARE EVIDENT IN LOCAL RADAR SRM LOOPS LATE TONIGHT. ONE CELL WAS MOVING ACROSS MARION COUNTY... ANOTHER WILL MOVE FROM ERN PASCO INTO SUMTER COUNTY SHORTLY. THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS SSWWD ACROSS ERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY AND INTERSECTS ANOTHER STRONG CELL MOVING ACROSS MANATEE COUNTY. LIGHT SELY SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORMS STRENGTHENS AND VEERS TO SSWLY WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM AND THIS WAS CONTRIBUTING TO 0-1KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 150-200 M2/S2 BASED ON LATEST CELL MOTION. THUS POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES OR STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN LOW INHIBITION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 26478172 26768294 29658203 29268080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 04:40:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 23:40:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506010450.j514oeZu012522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010450 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010450 TXZ000-OKZ000-010615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367... VALID 010450Z - 010615Z WELL-DEFINED BOWING MCS WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS WATCH 367 AT ABOUT 35KT. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE TO SFC-BASED PARCELS ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL INHIBITION IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SFC TEMPS COOL A MORE FEW DEGREES. NONETHELESS...CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE BOW INTO FAVORABLE ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG...SUGGEST THAT NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF BETWEEN 35-50KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE APEX OF THE BOW...WHICH SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE FT. WORTH AREA AROUND 1AM. NRN SEGMENT OF THE BOW INTERSECTS DEEP CONVECTION LINED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OK. A COUPLE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS IN THIS AREA COULD STILL PRODUCE HAIL AND BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS. THE FORMATION OF A WAKE LOW WITH STRENGTHENING POST-TSTM WINDS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THIS PATTERN. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS MIGHT BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN REGION ACROSS NW TX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 31539744 31509891 32689889 33119863 33869776 33849730 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 07:14:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 02:14:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506010724.j517Obod003858@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010723 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010723 FLZ000-010930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF FL PENINSULA EXCEPT NWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366... VALID 010723Z - 010930Z CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND...EVIDENT AT 7Z FROM WRN CHARLOTTE/SRN SARASOTA COUNTIES NEWD TOWARD DAB. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN FL THROUGH 10Z WW EXPIRATION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND/OR TORNADOES...ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH MESOCIRCULATIONS IN LEWPS/BOWS. PRIND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST BEYOND 10Z TO SUSTAIN THIS POTENTIAL OVER MORE OF SRN/ERN FL. THEREFORE AREA S AND E OF WW WILL BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW...WHICH IF NECESSARY WOULD BE ISSUED BEFORE 10Z. 7Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BACKED SFC WINDS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ALTHOUGH SOME DIABATICALLY FORCED DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVIDENT OVER INTERIOR OF PENINSULA...MODIFIED MIA RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE LIFTED LAYER REACHES DOWN TO AT OR JUST ABOVE SFC. MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG ARE EVIDENT OVER KISSIMMEE VALLEY WITH HIGHER VALUES FARTHER SW AND E. ANY ACTIVITY SURVIVING RELATIVE SFC THETAE MIN OVER CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING SBCAPE AND WEAKENING SBCIN AS IT APCHS E COAST. PRONOUNCED THERMAL/MOIST AXES ARE ANALYZED FROM MIA NWD TO JUST OFFSHORE DAB. ..EDWARDS.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 26398173 26758296 29688204 29318076 28988087 28818075 28468051 28438055 28318060 28098056 27798039 27338023 26698035 25878097 25668130 25788142 25848154 25858162 25838168 26098180 26278183 26428187 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 08:01:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 03:01:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506010811.j518BRBV022598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010809 TXZ000-010945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SOUTH TX...SRN HILL COUNTRY TO RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MIDDLE-LOWER TX COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368...369... VALID 010809Z - 010945Z PRIND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL BE S OF WW 369 BY 9Z...THEREFORE WW 368 WILLEXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. SEVERAL STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS BETWEEN JCT-SAT AND ELEVATED SUPERCELL SW JCT AS OF 8Z -- WILL POSE RISK OF DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS AS THEY MOVE SEWD. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO MCS WITH DAMAGING BOW ECHO POSSIBLE...AS WIND BECOMES MORE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE FROM SAT METRO AREA TOWARD UVA...THEN SSEWD ACROSS COT AND ALONG I-37. AREAS SE OF WW 368 MAY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WW BY 12Z. SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM COT AREA SEWD TOWARD JIM HOGG COUNTY APPEAR ROOTED ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER ATTM. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS IN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL. ELEVATED MUCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG AND 60-80 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ARE PRESENT IN RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP S TX. FARTHER NE...1500-2500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE IS EVIDENT E OF WW 368...BUT DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT AS CINH INCREASES. THIS AREA IS E OF LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS...WHICH RUNS ROUGHLY SAT-CRP. SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FROM CLL AREA SWD TO MIDDLE TX COAST BUT LESS WELL ORGANIZED THAN WITH CONVECTION APCHG SAT. ..EDWARDS.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT... 28160025 30400043 30220117 31380116 31989847 30829847 30410041 30350040 30579739 28379729 30599739 31079691 28809553 28259650 27779709 27409732 26959737 26419718 26079714 25969714 25959720 25969727 25949729 25939734 25839734 25839738 25869745 25909753 26039765 26049808 26119832 26249857 26259872 26379881 26409908 26559916 26889929 26939941 27099948 27289946 27609955 27739978 28180010 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 10:09:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 05:09:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506011019.j51AJWa6010401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011017 TXZ000-011145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1103 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF S TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368... VALID 011017Z - 011145Z MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE ARC. LARGE MCS WITH BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS TX COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN SAT AND MID/LOWER TX COAST. ACTIVITY PRIMARILY WILL AFFECT REGION BETWEEN CRP-HOU...INCLUDING PSX AND VCT AREAS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE TENDENCY IS WEAKENING...HOWEVER SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SEVERE GUSTS IN A FEW LOCALES. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADDITIONAL WW WOULD NOT BE REQUIRED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MARGINAL AROUND BOW AND SOMEWHAT GREATER WITH STORMS ON W END OF MCS -- WHERE IR CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE COLDER AND WHERE LARGER LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY ARE EVIDENT. RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE ALONG MID TX COAST BY 12Z...STRENGTHENING TO 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE INVOF LRD. FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEARS WILL CONTINUE OVER REGION -- IN 55-75 KT RANGE GIVEN STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT OF LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS. 2-3 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES WILL REMAIN COMMON. VERY EFFICIENT AND ABUNDANT PRECIP PROCESSING IS LIKELY WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS 15-18 DEG C...PW 1.75-2 INCHES AND VWPS INDICATING 35-50 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. ECHO TRAINING POTENTIAL ALSO IS GREATEST ALONG W EDGE OF MCS...ENHANCING HEAVY RAIN HAZARD. ..EDWARDS.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT... 28160024 30360041 30549741 29409736 29839687 29669635 28959566 28759561 28289652 27949699 27409733 26919736 25959714 25969730 25909734 25849735 25859742 26009763 26059814 26239871 26369877 26409910 26909937 27119947 27539948 27799987 28180017 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 12:22:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 07:22:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506011232.j51CWBfL001794@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011231 FLZ000-011400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 370... VALID 011231Z - 011400Z MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND -- INDICATED AT 1215Z ROUGHLY FROM APF-VRB. BEST ORGANIZED PORTION OF CONVECTIVE BAND ATTM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM VRB AREA NWD. THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCED SUBSEVERE GUST OF 43 KT AT A BREVARD COUNTY BEACH WITHIN PAST HOUR. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS FAVORABLY BUOYANT AND WEAKLY CAPPED...SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN LINE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF ACTIVITY WITHIN IT. STRONG TSTMS OVER GULF SW APF ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE COLLIER COUNTY WITHIN NEXT HOUR AS WELL. 12Z MFL RAOB INDICATES MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH SFC HEATING INTO LOWER 80S F. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES WITH NWD/WWD EXTENT FROM THAT RAOB...BASED ON PRE-STORM VWP AND RUC GUIDANCE ACROSS SWRN AND CENTRAL FL. ..EDWARDS.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 25978062 25988205 28468135 28477991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 14:06:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 09:06:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506011416.j51EG1rN031923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011415 FLZ000-011515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1105 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 370... VALID 011415Z - 011515Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z. CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE COLD POOL HAS STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 370. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL UPSTREAM...STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER PALM BEACH /BROWARD/DADE AND COLLIER COUNTIES COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS SEA BREEZES ENHANCE CONVERGENCE BY 16-18Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COASTAL AREAS...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS. ..KERR.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 28558128 28457989 26058057 25968204 28478137 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 14:37:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 09:37:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506011447.j51ElBIL019081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011446 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011446 TXZ000-011545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1106 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 371... VALID 011446Z - 011545Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16Z. WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOL HAVE PROGRESSED OFF LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ...NOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE BROWNSVILLE AREA AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE RIVER BEFORE STALLING/WEAKENING LATER THIS MORNING. GIVEN STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AXIS...RISK FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. ..KERR.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BRO... 26819926 26729832 26639735 26249687 25949734 26039850 26069900 26289936 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 15:46:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 10:46:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506011556.j51Fu7sJ001388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011555 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011554 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-011800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AL AND GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011554Z - 011800Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE GULF STATES...NOW APPEARS TO BE CENTERED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF MERIDIAN MS. ALONG/EAST OF THIS LOW...A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA. EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS BENEATH THIS REGIME IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...AND COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F. THIS AIR MASS IS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ROUGHLY NEAR/SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM AL AND MACON GA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN/BECOME SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY WARMS AND CAPE INCREASE UP TO 1000 J/KG. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS WITH TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ..KERR.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 30778171 30328265 30128361 30478424 31108409 31758475 31938591 32298696 33078744 33668673 33098524 32438320 32758200 32468119 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 17:58:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 12:58:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506011808.j51I86Zj024183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011807 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011807 MTZ000-WYZ000-012000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WY...PARTS EXTREME SRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011807Z - 012000Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ...AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING /500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BELOW -20C/ IN EXIT REGION OF 90-100 KT HIGH LEVEL JET IS NOW NOSING INTO THE YELLOWSTONE PARK AREA. DESTABILIZATION HAS ALREADY BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS PAST FEW HOURS NORTHEAST OF IDAHO FALLS ID. AS THIS FORCING SPREADS EAST OF YELLOWSTONE TOWARD THE BIG HORNS...INITIATION OF MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 21Z. STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE ALREADY EVIDENT NEAR/NORTHWEST OF WORLAND WY...WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME HAS DEVELOPED AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW NEAR 50F. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S...BUT ADDITIONAL HEATING COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG WITH ANTICIPATED MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...STORMS LIKELY WILL PRODUCE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXPANDS/SPREADS TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. ..KERR.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW... 44480902 45090882 45620586 45210445 44290457 44010594 43640748 43880799 43900852 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 19:57:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 14:57:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506012007.j51K7brC006541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012003 NDZ000-012200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1109 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH DAKOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012003Z - 012200Z SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. THOUGH ONE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS PIVOTED NORTH/ NORTHWESTWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE...STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS UNDERWAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR BOTTINEAU. NEW VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...ACROSS MINOT INTO AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK ...BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING MID/UPPER JET. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO BECOME BASED IN BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS DESTABILIZING WITH SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY STRONG AND...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES FURTHER...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY. ..KERR.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46770319 47380262 47790188 48490151 48740048 47939908 47019949 46610069 46150161 46200236 46480291 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 20:28:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 15:28:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506012038.j51KcQAF026987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012037 SCZ000-GAZ000-012200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1110 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/SRN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 372... VALID 012037Z - 012200Z LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW NEAR COLUMBUS MS SEWD ACROSS CNTRL AL AND SRN GA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POOR LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTUAL SFC INSTABILITY IS STRONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH OBSERVED THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS INDICATE THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF TORNADOES...THOUGH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT...WHERE FLOW IS BACKED TO THE E/SE PER SOUTH CAROLINA VAD WIND DATA. ..TAYLOR.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31297991 30898330 31858330 32648309 32918164 33038003 31837986 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 21:08:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 16:08:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506012118.j51LI8rd020112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012117 SDZ000-NEZ000-012245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0417 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW SD/NW NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012117Z - 012245Z ...WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SW SD SOUTH OF WW 374 AND POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE NEB PANHANDLE... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE NEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF OF CUSTER CO SD. 19Z SPECIAL SOUNDING FROM RAPID CITY SHOWED NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-45 KT. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE BIG HORN MTNS WILL FURTHER INCREASE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ONLY IMPROVE THE ALREADY FAVORABLE SHEAR. ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE...INITIAL TSTM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ..TAYLOR.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42180207 41990381 44160405 44340050 42860053 42260067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 23:02:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 18:02:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506012312.j51NCbt8012856@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012311 MTZ000-WYZ000-020045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT AND EXTREME NERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 373... VALID 012311Z - 020045Z LINE OF STRONG TSTMS...ALONG A POTENT WIND SHIFT...CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD AT 35 KTS ACROSS SERN MT AND NERN WY. SATL SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER POWDER RIVER COUNTY MT WHERE LINE SEEMS TO BE BOWING MORE THAN THE REST OF THE LINE. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY NOTED FROM NWRN SD INTO SERN MT. THUS...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED AS THE STRONG FORCING SPREADS NEWD AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH BROADUS AND TOWARD THE SD/ND BORDER THROUGH 0100Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE TSTM LINE SEGMENT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS COOLED AND STABILIZED VCNTY BIG HORN MTNS WWD. THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. ..RACY.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW... 44280615 45130620 46590711 47670426 44710432 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 23:26:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 18:26:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506012336.j51NaNG5021840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012335 SCZ000-GAZ000-020030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE GA/SRN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 372... VALID 012335Z - 020030Z ...POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND WW 372 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z... ALTHOUGH SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING WITH ONSET OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. VAD WIND DATA FROM COLUMBIA SC LOOKS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION...BUT THIS IS ALSO LOCATED IN AN AREA WHICH DID NOT DESTABILIZE AS STRONGLY TODAY...REMAINING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. RECENT LIGHTNING TRENDS SHOW ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO OVER EVANS/BULLOCH CO IN SE GA...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS TRYING TO CONSOLIDATE WITH SYSTEM OVER MS/AL...PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED STRENGTHENING FROM AUGUSTA/SAVANNAH...NEWD TO SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TRENDS FOR SEVERE APPEAR TO BE DECREASING. ..TAYLOR.. 06/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 31277971 31038130 32798279 33297975 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 00:52:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 19:52:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506020102.j5212NYp024666@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020101 MTZ000-WYZ000-020200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MT AND CROOK/WESTON COUNTIES IN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 373... VALID 020101Z - 020200Z VSBL SATL CONTINUES TO SHOW A LINE OF TSTMS ARCING ALONG A VIGOROUS FRONT FROM ERN CUSTER-WRN CARTER COUNTIES IN MT INTO NRN CROOK COUNTY WY. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN A NARROW AXIS WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER FALLON/ERN CARTER COUNTIES. TSTMS APPEAR TO BE CONGLOMERATING INTO A SMALL MCS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD INTO WRN ND/NWRN SD THROUGH THE EVENING WHERE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE TSTMS LARGELY OUT OF SERN MT/NERN WY BY 02-0230Z. AS SUCH... ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS...BUT RATHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKS. DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS PRIOR TO MOVING INTO WWS DOWNSTREAM. ..RACY.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 44390506 46060535 47050588 47460428 44570428 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 01:54:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 20:54:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506020204.j5224iUT020191@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020203 NDZ000-SDZ000-020300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0903 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL ND AND NWRN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 374... VALID 020203Z - 020300Z TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REARRANGED/REPLACED WITH ANOTHER WW BY 03Z. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO NWRN SD AND ND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG THE NOSE OF A 70 KT H5 JET. LLJ HAS ALREADY RESPONDED TO INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS AND RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A RAPID INCREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY/NUMBER SINCE 00Z...MAINLY ALONG/N OF THE SD/ND BORDER. GIVEN THAT STRONGEST MASS FLUX/WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ND THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE MORE CONCENTRATED THAN EARLIER IN THE EVENING. 00Z BIS SOUNDING SHOWED SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL TURNING IN THE EVENING VWP/HODOGRAPHS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR. BUT...GIVEN COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SINCE IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA...THE CURRENT WATCH WILL BE REARRANGED BY 03Z. ..RACY.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 44500367 48870269 48899911 44450046 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 04:30:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 23:30:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506020440.j524e6an018127@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020439 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020439 NDZ000-020545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 375... VALID 020439Z - 020545Z STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS BEEN SHIFTING FARTHER NWD WITH TIME THIS EVENING AS THE NOSE OF H5 JET SHIFTS NEWD INTO CNTRL ND. AS A RESULT...TSTM INTENSITY HAS DECREASED ACROSS ND...WITH STRONGEST CELLS APPROACHING THE MANITOBA BORDER ALONG A N-S ORIENTED FRONT. BUBBLE HIGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER SWRN ND WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHIFTING TOWARD THE KBIS AREA. IT APPEARS INHIBITION HAS INCREASED IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ND. GIVEN STRONGER MASS CONVERGENCE SHIFTING NWD AND INCREASING CAP FARTHER E/S...PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION ACROSS CNTRL ND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SEEM TO BE LESSENING. UPDRAFTS ROOTED ATOP THE COLD DOME FARTHER N/W MAY GROW INTO ORGANIZED CELLS OVERNIGHT AND MOVE NEWD INTO NCNTRL ND OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL THREATS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY AND/OR REPLACED WITH A SEVERE TSTM WATCH. ..RACY.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46110287 48780133 48799786 46069960 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 06:31:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 01:31:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506020641.j526fGLV031185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020640 NDZ000-SDZ000-020815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 375... VALID 020640Z - 020815Z SFC AND REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING EWD ABOUT 20 KT INTO WRN PORTIONS TOWNER/BENSON/WELLS COUNTIES AS OF 630Z. PRESENCE OF ALL CONVECTION BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND DIABATIC SFC COOLING ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY...INDICATES TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE BECOME NEGLIGIBLE. ISOLATED POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS MOVING NWD ACROSS WRN MCHENRY COUNTY ARE ELEVATED ATOP COLD POOL...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND APPROXIMATELY 8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT IN MODIFIED BIS/RUC SOUNDINGS. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALONG AND W OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE SFC AIR GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF BOUNDARY. SUCH ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO CANADA...AND WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. THEREFORE ANY REMAINING PORTIONS WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9Z...UNLESS CANCELED IN MEANTIME. ..EDWARDS.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45919946 45920321 48970144 48999752 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 08:20:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 03:20:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506020830.j528UFd4010353@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020827 FLZ000-021000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020827Z - 021000Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT WATERS BETWEEN FMY-SRQ AS BOW ECHO -- LOCATED ROUGHLY 3 W SANIBEL ISLAND AS OF 8Z -- MOVES NEWD. AFTER MOVING INLAND AROUND 9-930Z...ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN INLAND AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM HIGHER THETAE MARINE AIR INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE SFC-BASED PARCEL ENVIRONMENT. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF LIMITED SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WSWWD ACROSS NRN LEE COUNTY THEN OFFSHORE...INTERSECTING APEX OF BOW. COOLING CLOUD TOPS EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES MOVING NEWD -- ROUGHLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED. ALTHOUGH SFC COOLING ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS HAS STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT...EFFECTIVE PARCELS STILL INCLUDE SFC GIVEN TEMPS MID 70S F S OF BOUNDARY. ACCORDINGLY...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE...WHICH DIMINISHES INLAND....AND ANY SUBSTANTIAL GUSTS GENERATED BY CONVECTION ARE LIKELY TO REACH SFC OVER COASTAL AREAS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW... 27328262 27368252 27428235 27408218 27348204 27158193 26888176 26738181 26578194 26478218 26538235 26848254 27238270  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 15:42:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 10:42:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506021552.j52FqRPO012087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021551 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021551 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-021745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...CNTRL/SRN AL AND GA/SRN SC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 021551Z - 021745Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH PEAK HEATING...BUT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LINGERING SURFACE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM MYRTLE BEACH SC THROUGH THE AUGUSTA/MACON GA AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF TROY AL. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...AND BEGINNING TO WARM INTO THE 80S. WITH FURTHER HEATING...MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING...WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHWEST GEORGIA/AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH. BY 18-20Z...STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS LIKELY IN BAND FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF MACON GA...WHERE GROWING CLUSTER OF LINE OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MITIGATED BY GENERALLY WEAK FLOW...AS LOW- LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...25 TO 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGER CELLS...SOMEWHAT ENHANCING RISK FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..KERR.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 29908812 31018745 31728668 31598552 32118410 33158240 33188148 33118079 33028001 32937976 32458081 31718158 30788210 30438253 30078298 29738334 29658362 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 16:44:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 11:44:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506021654.j52GsH0q020483@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021653 OKZ000-KSZ000-021900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS...NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021653Z - 021900Z UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT LONG TERM EVOLUTION OF ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW. VIGOROUS CLUSTER OF STORMS PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SALINA AREA THROUGH THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT....ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...NOW APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ACTIVITY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT STRENGTH OF FORCING TO FURTHER MAINTAIN CONVECTION...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY SLOWLY CONTINUE INTO AREAS EAST OF WICHITA THROUGH CHANUTE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO MID/UPPER FLOW EAST OF SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WILL ENHANCE SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND PROFILES...WHICH WOULD COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND INCREASING SEVERE THREAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD POOL. REGARDLESS...GIVEN NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG EASTERN FRINGE OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 38729819 38759768 39089709 38829601 38009495 37409468 36819471 36249553 36319654 36629709 37539787 37759810 38039833 38469844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 17:30:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 12:30:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506021739.j52HdmqR018306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021738 COZ000-021945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021738Z - 021945Z DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED WITH INITIAL STORMS...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW. LAPSE RATES ARE BECOMING VERY STEEP WITH STRONG HEATING ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...AND IT APPEARS AREA OF STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD AND ZONE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN LATEST OBSERVATION DATA/OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...SPREADING INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS WILL AID INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTH OF COLORADO SPRINGS THROUGH THE DENVER/FORT COLLINS AREA...LIKELY DURING THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...BUT CAPE IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN COLORADO HIGH PLAINS. ..KERR.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT... 39430637 39930596 40470572 40640472 39750408 38930427 38410474 38300547 38900612 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 19:17:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 14:17:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506021927.j52JRAdu020129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021925 OKZ000-KSZ000-022000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1123 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL KS...PARTS OF N CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021925Z - 022000Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. INTENSIFICATION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES NORTH OF WICHITA...AND NEW/DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF TRAILING OUTFLOW UPSTREAM TOWARD GOODLAND. THIS IS ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET...JUST NORTH OF MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD... 39810149 39349990 38339752 36849656 36169772 36779896 38000070 38660192 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 19:45:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 14:45:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506021955.j52JtC3i004062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021954 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-022200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MN/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021954Z - 022200Z ...POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH DEVELOPING STORMS... SFC FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW NEAR MANITOBA/SASK BORDER THROUGH EXTREME ERN ND AND THEN SE OF A HURON/WINNER SD LINE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A NARROW CONFLUENCE ZONE...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK...GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IMPROVES ACROSS ERN ND/NW MN...SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD LEWP SIGNATURES AS STORMS TRACK NEWD. COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING...WILL BE SLOW MOVING THIS AFTN AND THUS EWD PROGRESSION OF STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. ..TAYLOR.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR... 47509399 42799668 43019861 45659695 47169669 48259626 48339534 48369439 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 20:34:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 15:34:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506022044.j52Kir30001632@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022043 COZ000-022245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1125 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN COLORADO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 376... VALID 022043Z - 022245Z CONTINUE WW. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE TAKEN ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE AREA...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. MOISTENING UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS FROM THE DENVER VICINITY EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR NOW THROUGH 03/00Z. 40+ KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS EAST OF DENVER INTO THE FORT MORGAN/YUMA/LIMON/BURLINGTON CO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS STORMS APPROACH THE COLORADO/ KANSAS BORDER...STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU... 39820456 40730408 40680283 40300220 39890207 39370240 39160291 39290375 39430433 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 22:34:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 17:34:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506022243.j52MhvRD001375@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022242 OKZ000-KSZ000-030015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS AND NWRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 377... VALID 022242Z - 030015Z INITIAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCURRED WEST OF LIBERAL KS AS OF 2230Z. THIS STORM APPEARED TO DEVELOP WITHIN N-S CONVERGENCE ZONE NOTED IN THE CU FIELD AND N OF A DRYLINE BULGE WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS HEATED TO NEAR 90F. THE STORM IS EVIDENTIALLY INGESTING HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS GIVEN SATL PRESENTATION. OTHERWISE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS INTO A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME INITIATING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. BUT...IT MIGHT SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTMS LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ ACCELERATES AFTER DARK. IF THE TSTM DEVELOPING VCNTY LIBERAL CAN CONTINUE TO INGEST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GROW STRONGER GIVEN MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY RESULT AND THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST NORTH OF THE DRYLINE BULGE HAS TURNED SELY AT AROUND 20 KTS AND MAY AUGMENT THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS AT THE SURFACE ARE AOB 25F AND SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY...SHOULD IT BE SUSTAINED...WILL MOVE ESEWD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TORNADO WATCH THROUGH MID-EVENING. ..RACY.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD... 37630181 39840184 37979696 36059706 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 22:48:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 17:48:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506022258.j52MwSVn008174@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022257 COZ000-030030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 376... VALID 022257Z - 030030Z A COUPLE OF SUPERCELL TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD OFF THE FRONT RANGE ONTO THE CO PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN WITH LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE REPORTS OF TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SUSTAINED AND THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT A MCS IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE. PREFERENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IS APT TO OCCUR SEWD INTO ECNTRL CO/WCNTRL KS /WT 377/ THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. OTHER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN SERN CO AND JOIN THE CELLS FARTHER N LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY STILL PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AFTER DARK. TO THE WEST...SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND RESULTANT NNELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROBABLY AID ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ..RACY.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38820507 40870514 40860231 38780230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 23:19:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 18:19:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506022329.j52NTRmn020928@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022328 SDZ000-NEZ000-030130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL NEB/SCNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022328Z - 030130Z ...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DEVELOPING STORMS... STORMS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SCNTRL SD. NEBRASKA PROFILER DATA SUGGEST AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /NEAR -12C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A LOCALIZED LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS INDICATE BETTER LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY HELPING CURRENT STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS. FOR THE NEAR TERM...STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..TAYLOR.. 06/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 42979815 41820136 42460258 43260231 43760173 44179939 44349773 43899655 43009672 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 00:17:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 19:17:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506030027.j530RVEM012110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030026 TXZ000-030200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030026Z - 030200Z STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF THE AZ UPPER WAVE...MARKED BY WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CONVECTION OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA AND FAR W TX. HEATING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SINCE 2330Z AND THIS MAY BE A SIGN OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING. BEFORE THE ENHANCED UVV REACHES THE AREA...ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD FORT STOCKTON WITH VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW BENEATH INCREASING H7 FLOW AND 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS STRONGER UVV MOVES EWD...CELLS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LOOPY SQUALL LINE LATER TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES ACROSS SWRN TX. A WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... 30410379 30930401 31810340 32330203 32120123 31120129 30460141 30070289 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 00:50:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 19:50:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506030059.j530xodJ024765@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030059 OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-030230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...KS AND NRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 376...377... VALID 030059Z - 030230Z SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS ERN CO WITH ADDITIONAL INITIATION OCCURRING UPSTREAM VCNTY KCOS...SEEDING DOWNSTREAM STORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID-EVENING TRANSITION INTO A MCS WILL OCCUR WITH STRENGTHENING COLD POOL. THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH 03Z AS THE COLD POOL ACCELERATES ESEWD. ELSEWHERE...A FEW SHORT-LIVED TCU/CBS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE MOVING SWWD INTO WRN KS AND NCNTRL OK. BUT...CAP HAS HELD AND PROBABILITIES FOR INITIATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ARE DECREASING WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. SCENARIO FROM MID-EVENING ONWARD IS A LITTLE COMPLICATED GIVEN APPROACH OF THE SWRN STATES UPPER LOW. PREFERRED TRACK OF THE MCS SHOULD BE ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST CAP/UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WAVE...MAINLY FROM ECNTRL CO EWD THROUGH WCNTRL KS AND TOWARD THE SALINA AREA OVERNIGHT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS THE CONVECTION EVOLVES AND EXPIRATION TIMES OF THE TORNADO WATCHES APPROACH...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF ECNTRL CO INTO CNTRL/NRN KS. ..RACY.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38770514 40860517 40910242 40110220 39389862 39089711 38559672 38079681 35879688 37570178 38680200 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 03:52:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 22:52:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506030401.j5341pYA001798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030401 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030401 COZ000-030430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 378... VALID 030401Z - 030430Z COLD OUTFLOW HAS PENETRATED WELL SOUTH INTO SERN CO WITH ONE REMAIN CELL APPROACHING THE KIT CARSON AREA. THIS STORM IS LIKELY ROOTED ATOP THE COLDER DOME AND WILL MAINLY BE A HAIL THREAT AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE KS BORDER. IT APPEARS THE SEVERE...AND IN PARTICULAR...THE TORNADO THREAT IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY. TORNADO WATCH 378 EXPIRES AT 0500Z AND NO EXTENSION TO THIS WATCH IS PLANNED. ..RACY.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38560478 39330217 38520214 37740466 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 04:05:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 23:05:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506030415.j534F3TD006511@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030414 TXZ000-NMZ000-030545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/WCNTRL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 379... VALID 030414Z - 030545Z IMPRESSIVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S HAVE REACHED EXTREME SERN NM AND THE SW TX MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY. MID-LEVEL CONVECTION THAT HAS PERCOLATED MOST OF THE EVENING HAS CLEARLY ROOTED INTO THIS INSTABILITY WITH STRONG- SEVERE TSTMS ALSO EVOLVING WEST OF WINK. COOLING CLOUD TOPS WERE ALSO NOTED EAST OF THE BIG BEND REGION. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER A LARGE PART OF SWRN TX...EVENTUALLY SPREADING NEWD INTO THE S PLAINS AND TOWARD THE SAN ANGELO AREA LATER TONIGHT. AS THE STRONGER FORCING SPREADS EWD...TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO SEVERAL SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. IN THE SHORT TERM...CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE THE LONGEST WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ACROSS SWRN TX. OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS THE STORMS MOVE NEWD OVERNIGHT. AS THE TSTMS DEVELOP NEWD...ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TOWARD THE LUBBOCK AREA. ..RACY.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 29490445 32900399 33090227 33020096 33009999 29400090 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 07:04:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 02:04:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506030714.j537EH4W008325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030713 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030713 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-030845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS/SRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 380... VALID 030713Z - 030845Z AN MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN NEB AND NRN KS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A HAIL AND A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT A NEW WW EAST OF WW 380 WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW IN SW KS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH NRN KS AND THEN SEWD INTO NE OK. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH IS SUSTAINING THE SRN END OF THE LINE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR AND LIFT TO KEEP STORMS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS FOR AT LEAST AT FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION IS STRENGTHENING AND THIS MAY CAUSE THE LINE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS IT MOVES INTO ERN NEB AND NE KS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME WEAKENING IN THE LINE AND THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ONLY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE. ..BROYLES.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 40869791 40919636 40599479 39369542 38459662 38569940 39059977 39799919 40589847 40709824 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 08:08:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 03:08:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506030818.j538ITar031615@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030816 TXZ000-NMZ000-030945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379...381... VALID 030816Z - 030945Z SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 379 AND WW 381 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW SEVERE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 379. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE POSITIONED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SSWWD ACROSS WEST TX TO NEAR BIG BEND N.P. THE ORIGINAL LINE OF STORMS IS LOCATED FROM LUBBOCK SSWWD TO NEAR MIDLAND WITH STORMS ALSO REDEVELOPING NEAR THE DRYLINE TO THE WEST. THE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND A VORTICITY MAX ANALYZED BY THE RUC. THE VORTICITY MAX IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION WHICH IS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FROM 45 TO 55 KT AND THE INSTABILITY...A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 29780236 29660327 29990371 30920358 33340298 34220291 34530234 34470067 33770012 32280025 30630073 29880149 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 11:37:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 06:37:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506031146.j53BkkGH013256@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031145 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-031315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1135 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN OK...SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031145Z - 031315Z SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE NEWD WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NM WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG LIFT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED CAPE WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG MOSTLY ABOVE 700 MB. AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMES OUT IN INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KT AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 33599888 33809980 34300027 35759965 37439827 37549730 37089671 36599655 35599716 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 13:48:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 08:48:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506031358.j53DwRNM013382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031357 TXZ000-031500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0857 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031357Z - 031500Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW. MODELS SUGGEST...THAT AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...STRONG DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL SPREAD OUT OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS AREA. HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL DEVELOP EAST NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS MAY MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LIFT TO OVERCOME LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC INHIBITION...AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO INTO THE COLLEGE STATION AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...THUS CONVECTION LIKELY WILL REMAIN BASED ABOVE CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY...BUT VERY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST... WITH A LOCALIZED DOWNBURST OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30510022 31309929 31709779 31439676 30159656 29359830 29629943 29889990 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 15:11:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 10:11:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506031520.j53FKq8n032608@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031519 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031519 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-031715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383... VALID 031519Z - 031715Z CONTINUE WW. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO ENHANCEMENT OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD OUT OF WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EVOLUTION OF GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER LIKELY WILL CONTINUE. CONVECTION CURRENTLY IS BASED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER...BUT AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME ROOTED IN DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. AS SHEAR PROFILES STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH GREATER RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36750016 36129978 35279876 34149760 34089623 35079511 37139564 37689854 37739971 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 16:50:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 11:50:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506031659.j53GxnNx000970@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031658 OKZ000-TXZ000-031900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1138 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS SRN TX PNHDL/NW TX INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031658Z - 031900Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF NEW WW. CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH NOW LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS EVIDENT OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE HAS SUPPORTED NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK... WHERE LOW LEVELS REMAIN WARM BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL...SUPPORTING STEEP LAPSE RATES. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG RETREATING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY INTO THE CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. HAIL POTENTIAL IS ALREADY INCREASING WITH STORMS...AND SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE 18-21Z TIME PERIOD...AS ACTIVITY BECOMES ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 34000162 34480085 34810019 35139904 35029764 34479718 33339800 32849879 33059986 33520068 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 17:12:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 12:12:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506031722.j53HM7AT015662@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031721 OKZ000-KSZ000-031815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1139 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS AND EXTREME NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 031721Z - 031815Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN KS/EXTREME NRN OK THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY. NO WW IS ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK VORT MAX WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF END MOVING NE AT 30-40 KT. STRONG STORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. OTHER STORMS THAT REMAINED FROM LAST NIGHTS MCS WERE LOCATED OVER EASTERN KS...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING NW-SE TO THE NORTH OF ICT. THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE STORMS IN NRN OK ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE STORMS IN KS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE UPDRAFTS TO THE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE STRONG LIFT OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. ..IMY.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38259574 38589782 38009922 37209920 36749773 36459719 36479612 36669495 37659462 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 17:31:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 12:31:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506031741.j53Hf30N028005@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031740 COZ000-031945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1140 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031740Z - 031945Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INVOF THE CO FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH NOT INITIALLY EXPECTED...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING PORTRAYS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS UT. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING ELY UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES OWING TO DEEPENING SCNTRL CO SFC LOW...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INVOF THE CO FRONT RANGE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS OR GREATER WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION...WILL ALSO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING DENVER CYCLONE/ISOLD TORNADOES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REMNANT LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS...AND WAKE IMPACT OF UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SUGGESTS THE INITIAL THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CO HIGHER TERRAIN/FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU... 39400583 40710632 40890472 40810427 39910415 38250413 37430433 37380531 39030565 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 17:59:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 12:59:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506031809.j53I9NHI012065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031808 SDZ000-NDZ000-032015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF ND/SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031808Z - 032015Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF ND/SD. WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLD HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE WATCH. ON PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER AND MCV MOVING INTO SW MN...HAIL/WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF ND AND SD INVOF OCCLUDED FRONT AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT. CONSISTENT WITH DEEPENING CU FIELD IN VIS IMAGERY...MODIFIED 12Z BIS/ABR RAOBS IN CONJUNCTION WITH OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION -- INITIALLY CENTERED ALONG A HURON SD-ABERDEEN SD-JAMESTOWN ND CORRIDOR. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /35 KTS OR HIGHER/ WILL BE STRONGEST OVER ND/NRN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLD THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..GUYER.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 48670221 48799786 47929731 43709678 43179763 43319994 43790130 46670125 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 18:26:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 13:26:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506031835.j53IZpwd027374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031834 TXZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1142 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384... VALID 031834Z - 032030Z CONTINUE WW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. COOLING ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS WEAKENED INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS. STRONGEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY EASTWARD THROUGH MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION AND INFLUX OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO STORMS NOW APPROACHING THE TEMPLE/WACO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TEMPLE/WACO VICINITY. ..KERR.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31379890 32079748 32279721 32759699 32419570 31709513 30909569 30509615 30359674 30379806 30099850 30099871 30529924 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 20:15:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 15:15:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506032025.j53KP8SN028566@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032023 OKZ000-TXZ000-032230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1143 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX INTO CNTRL OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 385... VALID 032023Z - 032230Z CONTINUE WW. SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP WEST SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE...ASSOCIATED WITH ZONE OF STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION EAST OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LINE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY EVIDENT SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS...WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RECOVER IN WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY WILL APPROACH 2000 J/KG...NEAR/SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS...SHORTLY. AS 40+ KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY AHEAD OF DRY LINE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE LINE. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...IN ADDITION TO RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 34439952 35159928 35829943 35959881 35169752 33759757 33059830 32919936 33180002 33680013 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 21:02:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 16:02:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506032112.j53LC3dG023556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032111 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-032315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0411 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR/SW MO/SE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032111Z - 032315Z ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS ERN OK/SE KS AND WRN AR/SW MO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WATCH. EAST OF OK PANHANDLE CYCLONE/VORTICITY MAXIMA...ARCING LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS EXISTS ACROSS ERN OK...WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING CU INVOF THIS FEATURE...WHILE MESOHIGH/COLD POOL EXISTS ACROSS SE KS. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF THESE FEATURES IS RATHER UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 ACROSS FAR SE KS/SW MO TO 2500-3000 J/KG INTO ECNTRL OK/WCNTRL AR. INITIALLY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS MAY TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER SE KS COLD POOL AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WET MICROBURST THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN... 35239547 36409626 36739737 37559729 37669520 38479355 38079242 36639249 34479333 34469490 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 22:05:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 17:05:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506032214.j53MElGR021610@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032213 TXZ000-032345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032213Z - 032345Z PARTS OF CNTRL TX COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THE TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. TSTMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER ERN CORYELL COUNTY...AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE STORMS MAY BE BACKBUILDING SSWWD INTO AREAS N OF KAUS. THE INFLOW LAYER OF THE STORMS IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND STORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO FEED ON THROUGH THE EVENING. PROFILERS SHOW AT LEAST 35 KTS OF H5 FLOW ATOP SELY FLOW 10-15KT... SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN AVAILABLE CAPE. THE HEARNE OBSERVATION SITE SHOWED A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENELY FLOW AND THERE MAY BE ADJUSTMENTS ONGOING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER W. THIS COULD AUGMENT THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY TO SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE SSEWD. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. ADJUSTMENTS/POSSIBLE UPGRADES TO THE SEVERE TSTM WATCH 384 MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29429934 31099810 32009690 31969544 31239537 30259625 29349732 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 22:39:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 17:39:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506032248.j53Mmr4T005625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032247 OKZ000-TXZ000-032345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1146 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK AND WRN N TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 385... VALID 032247Z - 032345Z TORNADO WATCH 385 EXPIRES AT 00Z. MAJORITY OF PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE WAS TRANSLATING QUICKLY INTO SCNTRL KS AND NERN OK EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...TSTMS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME INITIATING ALONG COLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER WRN OK...DESPITE TEMPERATURES HAVING WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. SATL DOES SHOW SOME AGITATED CUMULUS VCNTY LAWTON... VERY NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. UNLESS THIS CUMULUS BEGINS TO SPROUT...ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED. ..RACY.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... 33599966 36069837 36029672 35089682 33579771 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 23:01:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 18:01:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506032310.j53NAu1t014424@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032309 KSZ000-040045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032309Z - 040045Z TSTMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS SWRN KS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES THIS EVENING. AIR MASS HEATED SUFFICIENTLY LATE THIS AFTN TO SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS ACROSS SWRN KS. VWP/PROFILERS DEPICT A MODEST DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING BENEATH SLY FLOW ALOFT. TYPICALLY PROFILES SUCH AS THIS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES EARLY IN THE STORM LIFE-CYCLES. STORMS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND CONFINED TO SWRN KS THIS EVENING. A WW DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED. ..RACY.. 06/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... 37120103 38120159 38590112 38500001 37819928 37129954 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 00:15:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 19:15:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506040025.j540P1kI010081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040024 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386... VALID 040024Z - 040200Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED/CONTINUALLY DIMINISHING IN SEVERE WATCH 386 ACROSS ERN ND. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 386 MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 03Z. SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO INDICATIVE OF TSTMS STRUGGLING ACROSS ERN ND...PERHAPS NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY AREA BEING ON WRN PERIPHERY OF NRN/CNTRL MN MCV. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MEAGER DYNAMIC ASCENT...UPSWING OF CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINDER OF THE EVENING APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS ERN ND. 00Z OBSERVED ABR/BIS RAOBS PORTRAY MARGINAL INSTABILITY/RELATIVELY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF MEAGER CONVECTIVE TRENDS PERSIST...WW 386 MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 03Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION. ..GUYER.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN... 35239547 36409626 36739737 37559729 37669520 38479355 38079242 36639249 34479333 34469490 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 00:18:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 19:18:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506040028.j540S5DZ011583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040027 COR MNZ000-NDZ000-040200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386... VALID 040027Z - 040200Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED/CONTINUALLY DIMINISHING IN SEVERE WATCH 386 ACROSS ERN ND. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 386 MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 03Z. SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO INDICATIVE OF TSTMS STRUGGLING ACROSS ERN ND...PERHAPS NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY AREA BEING ON WRN PERIPHERY OF NRN/CNTRL MN MCV. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MEAGER DYNAMIC ASCENT...UPSWING OF CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINDER OF THE EVENING APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS ERN ND. 00Z OBSERVED ABR/BIS RAOBS PORTRAY MARGINAL INSTABILITY/RELATIVELY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF MEAGER CONVECTIVE TRENDS PERSIST...WW 386 MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 03Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION. ..GUYER.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48889969 49049854 48949704 46509691 46089701 46029888 46169942 47489957 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 02:10:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 21:10:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506040220.j542KRKD020223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040219 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...EXTREME NWRN AR...EXTREME SWRN MO AND SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387... VALID 040219Z - 040245Z SEVERE TSTM WATCH 387 EXPIRES AT 03Z. BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER SWRN KS. STRONGEST STORMS HAVE APPEARED TO FAVOR A ZONE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATED STRONGLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS THE STORMS TRAVEL FARTHER N AND E...THEY ARE LIKELY BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FEEDING OFF OF INCREASING LLJ EMANATING FROM N TX/CNTRL OK. THOUGH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE CHAOTIC AND ARE CHANGING RAPIDLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS IS THE LIMITED AVAILABLE CAPE...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY OCCUR AS THE LLJ INCREASES. AS A RESULT...A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY STILL CONTAIN HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. UNLESS THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY BY 03Z...AN EXTENSION IN THE CURRENT WATCH MAY NOT BE REQUIRED. ..RACY.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 36129690 37409807 38689634 38689556 36069350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 06:36:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 01:36:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506040646.j546k8Jg017648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040645 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040645 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK...SE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388... VALID 040645Z - 040815Z A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 388 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A REPLACEMENT WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. THE WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY EAST OF WW 388. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NW OK INTO SE KS. STRONG CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHICH COMBINED WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS HELPING SUSTAIN THE STORMS IN WW 338. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS KS AND WRN MO WITH STRONG ASCENT FOCUSED ACROSS SE KS. THE MID-LEVEL JET IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SUPERCELL THREAT GOING FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS IN SE KS AND NE OK. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. ALSO...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS IN WW 338. ..BROYLES.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 36739382 36729461 36689592 36529680 36809710 37649699 37869663 38079544 37939389 37779361 37169371 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 11:22:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 06:22:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506041131.j54BVwf6032592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041131 MOZ000-KSZ000-041300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041131Z - 041300Z AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STORMS ACROSS WRN MO. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NRN OK EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL MO. A LINE OF STORMS IS ONGOING ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM WSW TO ENE FROM SRN KS ACROSS MO WHICH IS ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE LINE. THE SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT) WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE MAY CAUSE THE STORMS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. THE SHOULD MAKE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS THAT ROTATE MAY HAVE A BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..BROYLES.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX... 40249327 39009465 38549463 38009428 38529361 39479251 39879256 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 15:28:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 10:28:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506041538.j54Fc7PR009794@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041537 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041537 ILZ000-IAZ000-041730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1152 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041537Z - 041730Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD THROUGH WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE IN WAKE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES RAPIDLY AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS FORCING IS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD...AND COULD APPROACH THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA...AND AREAS SOUTHWARD TO AROUND CHAMPAIGN BY 19-20Z. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS ALREADY POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF LINE...AND WITH PROGRESSION INTO PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BASED IN DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...WITH ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED SOUTHERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING APPEARS POSSIBLE TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT SURFACE COLD POOL... AND MODELS DO SUGGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS WILL INCREASE WITH CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 41089056 42079054 42268915 41778829 41018785 39968781 39328907 39238972 39639052 40079043 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 17:05:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 12:05:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506041715.j54HFC8B019487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041714 NEZ000-041915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041714Z - 041915Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. FORCING NORTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR SIDNEY NEBRASKA...WHICH LIKELY WILL SPREAD INTO/ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BETWEEN NOW AND 21Z. WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY ADVANCED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS... PRECLUDING RETURN OF BETTER GULF RETURN FLOW...SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR SURFACE LOW VICINITY OF NORTH PLATTE REMAIN IN THE MID 50S. THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. GIVEN DESTABILIZATION... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THOUGH AREA IS GENERALLY REMOVED FROM CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY ALREADY PRESENT NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE. ..KERR.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 41270184 41740099 41740001 41499928 40879884 40489929 40560015 40240070 40500182 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 17:56:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 12:56:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506041806.j54I6AkA008947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041805 KSZ000-MOZ000-042000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041805Z - 042000Z TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH. IT APPEARS SUPERCELLS COULD INITIATE AS EARLY AS 20-21Z. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARMING IS ONGOING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MIGRATING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS...ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. BUILDING/ DEEPENING CUMULUS ARE ALREADY BECOMING INCREASINGLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION. CAP IS STILL SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BY PEAK HEATING...THIS SHOULD BE BROKEN...AS EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET NOSING OUT OF THE TEAS PANHANDLE OVERSPREADS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP VERY RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER IS BECOMING VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW NEAR 70F ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS. MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL APPROACH 4000 J/KG WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS... SUPPORTIVE OF VERY INTENSE UPDRAFTS. HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS LIKELY IN STRONGEST CELLS...AND TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...MOSTLY LIKELY IN AREA AROUND SALINA/MANHATTAN/EMPORIA. ..KERR.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38959790 39629745 39919647 39919541 39779508 39259497 38889496 38209545 37849635 37469730 37689844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 19:03:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 14:03:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506041913.j54JD76x004710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041912 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-042115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL KS/N CNTRL OK INTO W CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041912Z - 042115Z TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ISSUANCE OF ONE OR MORE WWS ...WHICH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED BY THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME. AREAS ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MIGRATING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGHING LINGERS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST UPSTREAM OF DRY LINE...AND...AS THIS DEVELOPS EASTWARD NEXT FEW HOURS...FORCING LIKELY WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING.. ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. HOWEVER...VERY UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. INITIATION OF ACTIVITY BY AROUND 21Z APPEARS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS MOST LIKELY IN AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY INTO THE VICINITY OF WICHITA...BEFORE FURTHER SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE THROUGH THE WICHITA FALLS/ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO AREAS. ..KERR.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT... 36319856 37169812 37689732 37229674 35419696 33959751 32619852 31879930 31610023 32180062 34039891 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 19:14:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 14:14:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506041924.j54JOBpr009716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041923 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041923 WIZ000-MIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-042130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WI INTO SE MN/FAR NE IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041923Z - 042130Z WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN WI...AND POSSIBLY SE MN/FAR NE IA. IN ERN WI...LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER PROGRESSING ENE AT 40-45 KTS TOWARD W/NW PORTIONS OF THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN NEXT HOUR OR TWO NORTH/WEST OF WW 389 AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ON PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SRN MN. ACROSS FAR WRN WI/SE MN ALONG SHARPENING WARM FRONT...WAKE EFFECTS OF MCS TO THE SE AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER/LESSER DEGREE OF INSTABILITY -- 18Z OBSERVED DVN AND MPX RAOBS -- SUGGESTS MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE THREAT IS LESS CERTAIN WITH WESTWARD EXTENT. NEVERTHELESS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH PROGRESSIVELY CELLULAR CU FIELD ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS THE REGION WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN FORWARD PROPAGATION/MAGNITUDE OF WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE /REF BLUE RIVER WI PROFILER/ AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...IN ADDITION TO A FEW TORNADOES OWING TO BACKED SELY FLOW/ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS INVOF WARM FRONT. ..GUYER.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43619279 44729312 45349210 45699106 45868877 45378761 43868746 43788752 43159117 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 19:39:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 14:39:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506041949.j54JnUOt019511@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041948 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-042045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1157 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389... VALID 041948Z - 042045Z FORWARD PROPAGATING SEVERE CLUSTER...WITH HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CHICAGO METRO/NORTH SUBURBS IN THE SHORT TERM. ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD AT 40-45 KTS ACROSS SE WI...AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PRIMARY THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE ACROSS SE WI. ACROSS THE SRN EXTENT OF WW 389...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NRN IL GIVEN EXITING DYNAMIC SUPPORT/MCS STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 389 MAY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WATCH FURTHER N/NW ACROSS WI. ..GUYER.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX... 43698951 43778731 40458763 40458797 41918824 42628940 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 20:33:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 15:33:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506042043.j54KhZkG007983@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042042 NEZ000-042245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW INTO CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 390... VALID 042042Z - 042245Z CONTINUE WW. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTH PLATTE...SUPPORTED BY STRONG FORCING NORTHEAST OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER. UPPER FEATURE MAY REDEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTH PLATTE WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH STRONGER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS AREA...AND INCREASES EASTWARD TOWARD BROKEN BOW... WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW AROUND 60F. GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/ ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... 41550114 41720076 41720007 41179950 40869980 40680048 40880080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 20:37:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 15:37:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506042046.j54KkoQN009542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042046 NEZ000-042245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW INTO CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 390... VALID 042046Z - 042245Z CONTINUE WW. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTH PLATTE...SUPPORTED BY STRONG FORCING NORTHEAST OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER. UPPER FEATURE MAY REDEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTH PLATTE WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH STRONGER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS AREA...AND INCREASES EASTWARD TOWARD BROKEN BOW... WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW AROUND 60F. GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/ ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... 41550114 41720076 41720007 41179950 40869980 40680048 40880080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 20:38:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 15:38:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506042048.j54KmFUq009976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042042 NEZ000-042245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW INTO CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 390... VALID 042042Z - 042245Z CONTINUE WW. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTH PLATTE...SUPPORTED BY STRONG FORCING NORTHEAST OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER. UPPER FEATURE MAY REDEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTH PLATTE WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH STRONGER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS AREA...AND INCREASES EASTWARD TOWARD BROKEN BOW... WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW AROUND 60F. GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/ ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... 41550114 41720076 41720007 41179950 40869980 40680048 40880080  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 20:43:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 15:43:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506042053.j54Kr8rT012075@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042046 NEZ000-042245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW INTO CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 390... VALID 042046Z - 042245Z CONTINUE WW. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTH PLATTE...SUPPORTED BY STRONG FORCING NORTHEAST OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER. UPPER FEATURE MAY REDEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTH PLATTE WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH STRONGER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS AREA...AND INCREASES EASTWARD TOWARD BROKEN BOW... WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW AROUND 60F. GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/ ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... 41550114 41720076 41720007 41179950 40869980 40680048 40880080  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 02:08:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 21:08:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050219.j552JK3p025147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050218 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-050345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1168 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB...NERN KS...EXTREME SRN IA AND NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 391... VALID 050218Z - 050345Z DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND SHOULD INCREASE AS UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL WAVE TURNS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VLY LATER TONIGHT. ON THE MESOSCALE...E-W BAND OF TSTMS THAT FORMED LATE IN THE AFTN HAVE GENERATED A COLD POOL WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS ACROSS NWRN/NCNTRL MO LIKELY ELEVATED. N-S ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS ACROSS ERN KS IS BEING AUGMENTED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS LINE IS APT TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND LOCALIZED BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ECNTRL KS AND WCNTRL MO. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS... HOWEVER...SHOULD TRANSITION INTO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE STORMS MOVE ENEWD INTO WRN/NRN MO. TORNADO WATCH 391 EXPIRES AT 04Z...BUT READJUSTMENTS AND EXTENSIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. ..RACY.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 38289618 40709617 41169266 38639254 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 02:49:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 21:49:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050301.j5531AeO008293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050300 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-050430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NERN MO...WRN/NWRN IL...SWRN WI...AND FAR SERN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 397... VALID 050300Z - 050430Z TORNADO WATCH 397 CONTINUES IN EFFECT. ISOLATED TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ARC OF FORWARD PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORMS FROM JASPER COUNTY IA TO SULLIVAN COUNTY MO AT 0240Z WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 35-40KT. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 50KT AT DSM AND CNC AT 2Z. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED LONG-LIVED CELLS. SEPARATE CLUSTER OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CONTINUES NWD OUT OF FAR NERN MO INTO SERN IA. HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...HOWEVER...CURRENT NWD STORM MOTIONS ARE LIMITING 0-1KM SRH. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS...AS AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE LINE...AND EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SHOULD MAINTAIN/FOCUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS NERN MO AND MUCH OF E-CENTRAL IA THROUGH 6Z. ..BANACOS.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 40169269 42109268 43389240 43609074 42878899 39318931 39068987 39029222 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 02:52:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 21:52:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050303.j5533VkX008775@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050301 TXZ000-050400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050301Z - 050400Z TSTMS THAT EVOLVED FROM A COMPLEX OF MEXICAN PLATEAU STORMS HAVE SURVIVED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED INTO SCNTRL TX THIS EVENING. THEY APPEAR TO BE THRIVING ON THE DIURNAL INCREASE IN THE 925-850 MB JET CONTAINING UNSTABLE PARCELS. DEL RIO VWP SHOWS A VEERING/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW BETWEEN 2-5KM. THIS SUGGESTS THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE BRIEFLY...BUT LIKELY NOT THRIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME. DURING THEIR PEAK...HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY RESULT. ATTM...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WEATHER WATCH. ..RACY.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 28060012 28969983 29149809 28169764 27269909  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 03:10:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 22:10:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050321.j553LkPH015462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050320 MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-050415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR AND OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050320Z - 050415Z TORNADO WATCHES 393/394/398 EXPIRE AT 04Z...BUT READJUSTMENTS/ EXTENSIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MAINLY N TX NEWD ACROSS OK INTO WRN AR AND WRN MO. A COMPLEX SCENARIO HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING. EARLIER SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX HAVE DEVELOPED NEWD ACROSS SRN OK. WHILE A FEW STORMS HAVE REMAINED DISCRETE...ERN PORTIONS OF THE ORIGINAL MARLOW SUPERCELL HAS BECOME A BOW ECHO WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND REPORTS. A BRANCH OF THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AIMED INTO OK/SERN KS...LIKELY FEEDING THE LINE OF TSTMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CELLS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ATOP COLD POOLS ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL OK AS WELL. THE VERTICAL/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WEAKER SOUTH OF I-40 AND SUGGESTS THAT MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE SEVERE THREATS HERE. FARTHER NORTH...SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE HAS YET TO MOVE THROUGH SERN KS/MO/NERN OK. RECENTLY THE COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO IGNITE STORMS OVER SERN KS AND NCNTRL OK. GIVEN INCREASED LARGE SCALE FORCING/SHEAR...DOWNSTREAM 70S DEW POINTS AND MORE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THAN FARTHER S...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO THREATS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE...PERHAPS...WOULD BE IF THE STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER CAN INTERCEPT THE FLOW FOR THE STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER N. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS AT HAND...HOWEVER...THERE ARE REASONS TO BELIEVE THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA. ..RACY.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...MAF... 37759825 40709569 41109271 38919280 38289332 35689450 34029629 31189901 31160141 34499950 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 03:12:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 22:12:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050323.j553Nliu016155@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050323 COR MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-050415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050323Z - 050415Z CORRECTED FOR STATES/WATCHES TORNADO WATCHES 391/393/394/398 EXPIRE AT 04Z...BUT READJUSTMENTS/ EXTENSIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MAINLY N TX NEWD ACROSS OK INTO WRN AR AND WRN MO. A COMPLEX SCENARIO HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING. EARLIER SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX HAVE DEVELOPED NEWD ACROSS SRN OK. WHILE A FEW STORMS HAVE REMAINED DISCRETE...ERN PORTIONS OF THE ORIGINAL MARLOW SUPERCELL HAS BECOME A BOW ECHO WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND REPORTS. A BRANCH OF THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AIMED INTO OK/SERN KS...LIKELY FEEDING THE LINE OF TSTMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CELLS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ATOP COLD POOLS ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL OK AS WELL. THE VERTICAL/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WEAKER SOUTH OF I-40 AND SUGGESTS THAT MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE SEVERE THREATS HERE. FARTHER NORTH...SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE HAS YET TO MOVE THROUGH SERN KS/MO/NERN OK. RECENTLY THE COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO IGNITE STORMS OVER SERN KS AND NCNTRL OK. GIVEN INCREASED LARGE SCALE FORCING/SHEAR...DOWNSTREAM 70S DEW POINTS AND MORE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THAN FARTHER S...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO THREATS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE...PERHAPS...WOULD BE IF THE STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER CAN INTERCEPT THE FLOW FOR THE STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER N. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS AT HAND...HOWEVER...THERE ARE REASONS TO BELIEVE THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA. ..RACY.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...MAF... 37759825 40709569 41109271 38919280 38289332 35689450 34029629 31189901 31160141 34499950 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 04:47:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 23:47:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050458.j554wLHR013875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050457 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050457 MOZ000-ARZ000-050600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1172 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MO AND NCNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050457Z - 050600Z A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF SCNTRL MO AND NCNTRL AR. BOW ECHO OVER NERN OK IS MOVING ENEWD AT 50 KTS AND WILL MOVE INTO AREAS NEAR HARRISON AND SPRINGFIELD BY 06Z...AUGMENTED BY LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS SUITABLE TO SUSTAIN TSTMS. THOUGH WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BOW HEAD TORNADOES AND HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR. ..RACY.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37349317 38209251 38159113 36509147 35229253 35399389 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 05:45:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 00:45:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050556.j555uLJd031976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050555 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050555 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-050730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1173 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO...ERN IA...WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 397... VALID 050555Z - 050730Z THE STRONGER STORMS IN A LINE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WW 397 WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS WCNTRL IL WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH A BROAD 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LINE IS SUSTAINING THE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD. A MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED FROM KS EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS MO AND IA. THIS JET IS CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT ALONG THE LINE WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT CONSIDERING THE LINE IS MOVING INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE LINEAR ORIENTATION OF THE STORMS SUGGESTS A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE. THE LINE SHOULD REMAIN STRONG AS LIFT AHEAD OF A VORTICITY MAX SHOWN BY THE RUC...MOVES NEWD ACROSS MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42459245 43269229 43589186 43659005 43398943 42888905 40188907 39398936 39069005 39099132 39499211 40799230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 07:44:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 02:44:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050755.j557tBFF005351@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050752 WIZ000-ILZ000-050915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1174 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...ERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 397...401... VALID 050752Z - 050915Z WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN A LINE ORIENTED FROM SERN WI SWD ACROSS WRN IL. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE MIDDLE TO NRN END OF THE LINE ACROSS NE IL AND FAR SERN WI. FARTHER SOUTH...THE LINE HAS WEAKENED AND ANOTHER WW FARTHER EAST IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED FROM MO EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS IL AND SERN WI. A CONVECTIVE LINE IS LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS OF THE JET WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS NOSING INTO WI WHICH IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS WI AND FAR NRN IL. THIS MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT WWS WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..BROYLES.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX... 44478991 45148939 44738806 43578742 41658758 39288920 39188978 39439039 41828912 43158877 43768904 43928927  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 08:11:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 03:11:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050822.j558Mcdh015439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050817 ARZ000-050945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1175 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403... VALID 050817Z - 050945Z A WEAKENING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AR. INITIALLY...THE LINE MAY HAVE A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE BUT SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY EAST OF WW 403. A CONVECTIVE LINE IN WRN AR IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. THE INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HELP SUSTAIN THE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD INTO CNTRL AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE LINE MOVING AWAY FROM THE MID-LEVEL JET INTO WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW. IN ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DUE TO A VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD AWAY FROM AR. THE DECREASING ASCENT COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF WW 403. ..BROYLES.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK... 34309310 34379369 34659369 35669313 36339278 36379156 35619144 34379222  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 09:07:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 04:07:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506050918.j559IQDi003692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050913 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050912 TXZ000-OKZ000-051045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1176 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK/NORTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050912Z - 051045Z A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS SW OK AND NORTH TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD ONLY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. A WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED FROM MO EXTENDING SWWD INTO OK AND NORTH TX. DUE TO A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DECOUPLED AND THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SW OK AND NE TX IS LIKELY ELEVATED IN NATURE AND IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND THIS COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..BROYLES.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... 33189566 32539607 32369682 33849902 34659853 34759782  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 16:47:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 11:47:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506051658.j55GwbNO023293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051655 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-051800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1177 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INDIANA...LOWER MI...PARTS OF NW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051655Z - 051800Z SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UNIMPEDED SURFACE HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA/OHIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS EXCEEDED 2000 J/KG...WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION REMAINING ACROSS THIS REGION. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOW- LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA NORTHWEST OF EVANSVILLE THROUGH THE LAFAYETTE IN/KALAMAZOO MI AREA. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED NOW LIFTING FROM ILLINOIS TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 18-20Z. IF THIS OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BY PEAK HEATING HOURS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES...WITH STORMS ENHANCED BY MODERATELY SHEARED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX... 44858561 44198583 43308539 42608552 41778660 39848734 38668756 37848739 38828517 40588419 41488384 42048309  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 17:11:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 12:11:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506051722.j55HMGZe032753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051719 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-051845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1178 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SCNTRL MN INTO NRN IA AND WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051719Z - 051845Z SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 18Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NEWD OVER MN...WITH -14C 500 MB COLD POCKET CENTERED OVER NW MN PER UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS. MCV ALSO NOTED OVER NE IA. COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT...MODEST INSOLATION OVER ERN/SRN MN AND NRN IA HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED OBSERVED 12Z MPX RAOB FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS...WITH MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. INITIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS ERN/SCNTRL MN INTO NRN IA GIVEN UPPER COLD POCKET AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD LIKELY INCREASE AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD INTO WRN WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 45909419 47879318 47679096 45029053 42689070 42729464 43739528 44219502  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 18:34:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 13:34:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506051845.j55IjdjX032122@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051842 MTZ000-052045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1179 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MT CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 051842Z - 052045Z LOCALIZED MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH 21-22Z. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED. THIS IS MAINLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MONTANA...WHERE WEAK BUT MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS BENEATH DIFLUENT REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SHEAR PROFILES ARE STILL WEAK...BUT AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/DEEPEN WITH MIXING...CAPE MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG UPDRAFTS IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. A FEW STORMS MAY SLOWLY DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR/WEST OF GREAT FALLS...WHERE SYNOPTIC FORCING/SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. ..KERR.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47141230 47931287 48311239 48371031 48290880 47770751 46630658 45690664 45410807 45681004 45881099 46301140 46661191  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 19:25:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 14:25:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506051936.j55JaF1g019835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051933 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-052130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1180 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN INDIANA INTO LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051933Z - 052130Z CONTINUE TORNADO WW 404 AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW 406. RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH HAS LIFTED INTO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ACTIVITY HAS BECOME CLUSTERED SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CHICAGO AREA...WITH FURTHER EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NEXT FEW HOURS. MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS LIKELY NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES. THIS MAY SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD POOL WITH INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT WEST THROUGH NORTH OF FORT WAYNE INTO THE LANSING AND...PERHAPS...ANN ARBOR AREAS BY 23Z. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUST ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. ..KERR.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 41408683 41958615 42508592 42888497 42768444 42448388 41778414 41058505 40218637 40188722 40718722  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 19:32:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 14:32:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506051943.j55Jhe6Q022719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051940 LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-052115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1181 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 051940Z - 052115Z PULSE-TYPE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH DEVELOPING TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LA. LATEST WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES MCV NEARING THE SABINE RIVER AROUND/EAST OF THE LUFKIN TX AREA. IN SPITE OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS PER AREA WSR-88D VADS/WINNFIELD LA PROFILER...EWD PROGRESSION OF MCV WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN ORGANIZATION FOCUS ACROSS LA. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS LA IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE -- MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG -- SUCH THAN AN EPISODIC SEVERE THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS/DOWNBURSTS APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 32419397 32479359 32439113 30979086 30259094 30029252 30329373 30849397  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 20:16:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 15:16:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506052027.j55KRNXB007976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052021 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-052145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1182 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN/NE IA INTO WI/U.P. OF MICH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405... VALID 052021Z - 052145Z TORNADO WATCH UPGRADE/REPLACEMENT OF WW 405 MAY BE REQUIRED SOON EWD INTO WI AND U.P OF MICH. AHEAD OF WRN MN UPPER TROUGH AND REMNANT MCV MOVING INTO SW WI... AIRMASS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE FROM ERN MN INTO MUCH OF WI AND THE U.P. OF MICH. MODIFIED OBSERVED 18Z GRB SOUNDING...IN ACCORDANCE WITH 18Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...PORTRAY AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE -- CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED INVOF MISS RIVER -- AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENE AND/OR DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL/ERN WI AND WRN U.P OF MICH...WITH CU FIELD CURRENTLY DEEPENING INTO ERN WI/U.P. MICH AHEAD OF ONGOING WRN WI TSTMS. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS GRADUALLY BACKED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL WI...SUCH THAT TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN/CNTRL WI INTO U.P OF MICH. TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO BE FURTHER AUGMENTED BY AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY/LOW LEVEL CAPE CONCENTRATION INVOF NE MN/NW WI/FAR WRN U.P. OF MICH. ADDITIONALLY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL EXISTS...IN ADDITION TO AN INCREASING THREAT WITH TIME FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS VIA ORGANIZATION LINEAR CLUSTERS/LEWPS. ..GUYER.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 47999246 47818943 47248826 45548740 43298782 42618926 42529018 42589314  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 20:21:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 15:21:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506052033.j55KX5eu009981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052028 MTZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-052200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MT/ERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052028Z - 052200Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO...WHERE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF APPROACHING VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND 23Z. WITH SHEAR ALSO STRENGTHENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS EXIT REGION OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS REGION...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CAPE LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE MONTANA ROCKIES...NEAR/WEST OF GREAT FALLS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT BETTER...AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... 46641509 48461399 48551227 47181095 45841148 42901171 41811395 42011451 43301426 44741434  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 20:46:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 15:46:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506052057.j55KvG7V019747@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052050 OKZ000-TXZ000-052215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRWN TX NEWD ACROSS SWRN AND CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052050Z - 052215Z MONITORING PORTIONS OF NWRN TX NEWD INTO SWRN/CENTRAL OK FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH. WEAK WARM FRONT...WHICH IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING SLOWLY NWD... STRETCHED FROM NEAR LBB NEWD TO BETWEEN OKC AND END. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS TO INITIATE SHORTLY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS RICHER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND THIS WAS RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM 3500 TO 4500 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND 30 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW...ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ..IMY.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32950012 32680162 32750184 33410219 34869949 35259850 35389715 34999633 34589641 33659762  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 22:07:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 17:07:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506052218.j55MIRYw014884@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052213 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-052315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052213Z - 052315Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY... MODERATE SWLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE TO ADVECT ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW406 INTO WRN OH OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS QUITE WARM WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 F. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT ONGOING CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THIS REGION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX... 41468124 39628270 38998519 41688368  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 22:58:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 17:58:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506052309.j55N9iD5032063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052307 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-060000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN/NE IA AND WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405... VALID 052307Z - 060000Z AN ISOLD SEVERE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT MAY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HOWEVER CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT WW 405 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSITION ENE OVER ERN MN TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT HAVING ALREADY SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO CNTRL/ERN WI AND U.P. OF MICH. WITH ALREADY MARGINAL INSTABILITY FROM ERN MN/NE IA INTO WRN WI PER RUC SOUNDINGS/LATEST MESOANALYSIS...STORM MERGERS/CLUSTERING AND MORE SO LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING. ..GUYER.. 06/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 47579287 47869104 45089049 43709020 42719035 42679242 42909273 44619305  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 23:57:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 18:57:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506060008.j5608aIw020235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060005 MIZ000-WIZ000-060130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI/U.P. OF MICHIGAN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 407... VALID 060005Z - 060130Z PRIMARY THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF WW 407 ACROSS ERN WI/U.P. OF MICH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR NECESSITY OF ADDITIONAL WATCH ACROSS U.P. OF MICH DOWNSTREAM OF WW 407...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED BY 01Z. ALTHOUGH A FEW EMBEDDED LEWP TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW/25 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR PER GRB WSR-88D VAD... DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH LINEAR CLUSTERS CURRENTLY MOVING ENE AT 35-40 KTS ACROSS ERN WI/WRN U.P. OF MICH. SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MAGNITUDE OF SWLY WINDS OF 40 KTS OR GREATER ABOVE 1 KM...REF BLUE RIVER WI PROFILER AND AREA WSR-88D VADS. ALTHOUGH SEEMINGLY LESS QUALITY AIRMASS EXISTS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE ERN U.P. OF MICH...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX... 46729044 47248829 46848521 45758529 44158703 43208763 43778962  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 00:03:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 19:03:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506060014.j560Ew9R021969@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060011 OKZ000-TXZ000-060145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 408... VALID 060011Z - 060145Z ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS NWRN TX/SWRN OK... AN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS EVOLVED OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS THAT ARE MEANDERING IN RESPONSE TO OUTFLOW FORCING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR SOME TIME GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE IN LLJ ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THIS COMPLEX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER DOWNSTREAM STATIONARY STORM OVER KIOWA COUNTY OK WILL SURVIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING OR SIMPLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LARGE HAIL CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34160238 35539834 34659782 32250122  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 02:11:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 21:11:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506060222.j562MuDL005215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060220 MIZ000-WIZ000-060345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0920 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI AND NWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 411... VALID 060220Z - 060345Z TORNADO WATCH 411 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI AND NWRN LOWER MI. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE CELLS...WILL CONTINUE ENEWD AT 25KT ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE U.P. AND NWRN LOWER MI. MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER ACROSS NWRN WI WILL CONTINUE ENEWD REACHING CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 06/06Z. LEADING EDGE OF UPPER FORCING AND COINCIDENT BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WW 411 AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LAKE BREEZE HAS STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN LOWER MI WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE MID 60S. DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKEWISE GRADUALLY DECREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS NWRN LOWER MI. AT 02Z...0-1KM SRH VALUES REMAIN CLOSE TO 200 M2/S2 ACROSS NWRN LOWER MI WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS /40-45KT/. THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO STABILIZE...HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY TRACK FROM CENTRAL/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WRN LOWER MI...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE U.P. ..BANACOS.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... 44518433 44228544 44188708 45558754 46918757 47208723 47418544 47108484 45918415  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 02:18:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 21:18:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506060229.j562TxI5008011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060228 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-060400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1190 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409... VALID 060228Z - 060400Z ...SQUALL LINE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS ERN OH INTO WRN PA... CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW AS CONVECTION MOVES TOWARD WRN PA AT ROUGHLY 35KT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY...LIKELY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF UPSTREAM TROUGH INTO THIS REGION. MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY...LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AT PIT...AND WEAKENING LAPSE RATES SUGGEST WIND THREAT WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS WELL. ..DARROW.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39618370 40818191 42118144 42258000 40847998 39648219  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 03:32:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 22:32:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506060343.j563hQBw004829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060341 OKZ000-TXZ000-060515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1191 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK/NCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 408... VALID 060341Z - 060515Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AREAS ALONG THE RED RIVER... COMPLEX ARRAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MERGED OVER SWRN OK/NWRN TX WITH A DEVELOPING MVC OVER TILLMAN COUNTY OK. AN ARCING LINE OF TSTMS NOW EXTENDS SWD FROM THIS DEVELOPING MCS INTO ARCHER COUNTY TX. LEADING EDGE OF SQUALL LINE IS SURGING EWD AT 35-40KT AND WILL EXIT THE SERN CORNER OF WW BY 05Z...IF CURRENT SPEED CONTINUES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS UPWARD EVOLUTION MAY REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THIS LEADING LINE...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. ..DARROW.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34729862 34979631 33819570 33279712 33289869 34079856  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 07:10:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 02:10:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506060721.j567LjdF017396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060716 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-060845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1192 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060716Z - 060845Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT. CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN NRN OK SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN KS. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F ARE HELPING TO CREATE A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AS OF 06Z BUT THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW. 500 MB WIND SPEEDS ARE ONLY ABOUT 20 KT BASED ON PROFILER DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. STILL...ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37649536 37139455 36649468 35999537 36389753 37099929 37919924 38299794  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 12:25:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 07:25:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061236.j56CaQnD016894@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061235 PAZ000-061430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1193 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061235Z - 061430Z SCATTERED STRONG CELLS ARE MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS WRN PA. THE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO CNTRL PA THIS MORNING...THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTING EWD ACROSS ERN OH AND WRN PA. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THIS BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG AN AXIS OF RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. VAD WIND PROFILES IN WRN PA SHOW 35 TO 40 KT AT 6 KM SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE AS THE CELLS MOVE INTO CNTRL PA LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAST ELY MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AT 40 KT. OTHERWISE...HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THE STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 41067681 40657685 40397743 40227921 40438043 41298036 41637972 41667712 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 14:18:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 09:18:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061429.j56ETbRx020299@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061428 MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-061530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN PA/CENTRAL-ERN NY/NRN NJ/WRN CT/WRN MA/WRN VT CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 061428Z - 061530Z THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE DAY 1 OUTLOOK WILL UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE NERN STATES TO A MODERATE RISK. THIS MODERATE RISK INCLUDES CENTRAL AND ERN PA...CENTRAL AND ERN NY...NRN NJ...WRN CT...WRN MA AND WRN VT. FOR METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 39737844 41097830 42517701 43737539 44427444 44587287 43277282 41717294 40717410 39847567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 14:49:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 09:49:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061500.j56F0gMp007331@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061500 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061459 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-061630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0959 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN INTO MIDDLE TN/FAR NW AL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 061459Z - 061630Z SOME THREAT FOR PULSE-TYPE/EPISODIC MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY DEVELOP OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS WRN TN INTO MIDDLE TN/FAR NW AL. SURFACE MESOANALYSIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE DRIVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NNE ACROSS FAR NRN MS AT THIS TIME. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS WRN TN INTO MIDDLE TN ALREADY WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 80S/70S SFC TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS RESPECTIVELY. IN SPITE OF WEAK AMBIENT/VERTICAL SHEAR SEEN IN MEMPHIS AND NASHVILLE WSR-88D VADS...COLD POOL ORGANIZATION MAY LEAD TO PULSE-TYPE SEVERE EPISODES ACROSS WRN TN INTO MIDDLE TN/FAR NW AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG... 35009013 35629025 36098956 36238757 35868650 35208627 34588667 34438759 34808798 35078881 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 15:09:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 10:09:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061521.j56FL3G0021227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061520 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061520 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-061615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS/SWRN INTO CENTRAL AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061520Z - 061615Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SERN MS TO WRN FL PANHANDLE AND NNEWD INTO CENTRAL AL. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NWRN GA TO SWRN AL. THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDED WSWWD ACROSS FAR SERN MS/LA AS A SEA BREEZE. MARITIME AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...AS INDICATED BY DEVELOPING CU ACROSS AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...VAD WIND DATA INDICATED A BAND OF 25-30 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE MS MCV. THESE WINDS MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION. ..PETERS.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... 30768888 31098861 31578847 32258824 32498816 32798753 32418668 31368629 30498622 30068699 29598821 29458921 29798951 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 16:35:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 11:35:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061647.j56Gl6ms010136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061646 PAZ000-MDZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-061745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN-SERN OH/WRN PA INTO NRN WV/PORTIONS OF WRN MD PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413... VALID 061646Z - 061745Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF ERN-SERN OH INTO WRN PA AND NRN WV/ WRN MD PANHANDLE. GIVEN THIS NEW THREAT AND ITS POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 413...COUNTIES ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW 413 WILL NOT BE REMOVED IN UPCOMING SPC STATUS MESSAGES. 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NERN OH TO NEAR CMH TO SRN IND...WITH VIS IMAGERY SHOWING CU DEVELOPING ALONG/E OF THIS FRONT WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. SURFACE HEATING HAS ELIMINATED THE LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND IS RESULTING IN CURRENT MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG. THUS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OH VALLEY IS SUPPORTING AT LEAST 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN PA...LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER STORMS...WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD ELSEWHERE WITH 40 KT WSWLY WINDS BETWEEN 2-3 KM PER VAD WIND DATA AT CLE/ILN/PBZ WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... 37688301 39418292 41748078 42817817 39717833 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 17:19:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 12:19:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061730.j56HUw99003958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061729 SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-061930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1198 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN WYOMING CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061729Z - 061930Z A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED IN THIS REGION WITHIN THE HOUR. WITH AIR MASS NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS NRN WY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WRN WY. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN WY IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. SURFACE LOW VICINITY RIW WILL DEEPEN NEWD AND COUPLED WITH APPROACHING STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPWARD MOTION AND SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..HALES.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 43530849 44570891 45450851 45620716 45500502 45400410 43810339 42970368 42780435 42660512 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 17:23:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 12:23:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061735.j56HZ07H005712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061734 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061734 PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-061830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1199 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL-ERN VA/MD AND PORTIONS OF SERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061734Z - 061830Z WW WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL-ERN VA TO SERN PA. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LEE TROUGH OVER WRN VA FROM ABOUT 40 S ROA TO LYH TO CHO TO 30 SE MRB. VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WV INTO WRN VA AND NWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA...WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/NRN VA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE REGIONS AND MOVE EWD. AIR MASS ALONG/E OF HIGHER TERRAIN HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 2500+ J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL BE PULSE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE PA BORDER WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WITHIN MOIST AXIS WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN SFC-3 KM LAPSE RATES TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE EWD. ..PETERS.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 37957937 39147831 39727747 40127583 38997631 37437694 36937773 36797897 37097985 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 17:28:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 12:28:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061739.j56HdJ0w008853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061738 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061738 ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-061945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN OK INTO AR/FAR SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061738Z - 061945Z THREAT FOR ISOLD PULSE-TYPE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/MICROBURSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PROGRESSING EWD OVER FAR ERN OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE /AND INVOF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/ AMIDST WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. 15Z RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR REPRESENTIVE WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE AMIDST ALREADY NEGLIGIBLE CINH ACROSS WRN/CNTRL AR INTO FAR SRN MO...WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER DEQUEEN AR PROFILER /LIKELY AUGMENTED BY THE MCV/ SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THEREFORE AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR PULSE-TYPE/EPISODIC MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM FAR ERN OKLAHOMA INTO WRN/CNTRL AR AND FAR SRN MO. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 35539482 37139468 37209298 36539091 35379101 33909208 33539238 33479379 33739451 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 18:24:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 13:24:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061835.j56IZICJ008002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061834 TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-062100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1201 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO/NE AR/SRN IL INTO WRN/CNTRL KY AND SRN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061834Z - 062100Z THREAT FOR PULSE-TYPE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FROM SE MO/NE AR/SRN IL INTO WRN/CNTRL KY AND SRN IN. SEVERE WATCH NOT ANTICIPATED. PLENTIFUL INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED AIRMASS THAT IS 1) DOWNSTREAM OF ERN MO MCV 2) ALONG/SOUTH OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN IL/SRN IN AND 3) NORTH OF WRN TN COLD POOL TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE. RELATIVELY MODEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /20-30 KTS PER REGIONAL PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VADS/ AND AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY. HOT/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE...HOWEVER REGION WILL BE UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IN UPCOMING 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 35658603 36188726 36139004 36239094 36849066 37598993 38278984 39138872 39188729 38388537 36458455 35998498 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 19:10:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 14:10:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061921.j56JLklS004229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061920 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-062015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN NM INTO WRN TX/WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061920Z - 062015Z WW WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF ERN NM INTO WRN TX/ WRN OK PANHANDLE. AIR MASS ACROSS ERN NM INTO WRN TX HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY 21-00Z. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU/CBS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND FAR WEST TX. THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. SFC-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT OVER SERN NM SWD INTO FAR WEST/SWRN TX IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. FURTHER N...DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AS WELL...GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 29210377 31170425 32430519 33730538 35430474 36840396 36900198 33520217 31320219 29140300 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 19:12:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 14:12:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506061923.j56JNCJR005487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061922 SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-062115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD/WRN NEB AND ECNTRL/SE WY INTO ERN CO/FAR WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061922Z - 062115Z SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE WY/CO HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS. MONITORING TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WATCH/ES. AHEAD OF LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN ID/NRN UT INTO WRN WY...CUMULUS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY/CO THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO INTO FAR WRN KS. ALTHOUGH SOME CINH REMAINS ACROSS THE WRN SD/WRN NEB/WRN KS HIGH PLAINS...MODIFIED 18Z SPECIAL RAOBS FROM RAP/LBF PORTRAY POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OF 2000 J/KG OR GREATER. RELATIVELY GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30-40 KTS/ FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS/LONGER DURATION SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS ERN WY/WRN SD/WRN NEB...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 20 KTS PROGRESSIVELY SWD ACROSS ERN CO/FAR WRN KS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS...HOWEVER WW APPEARS LIKELY AT LEAST ACROSS ERN WY/WRN SD/WRN NEB BY 21Z. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 45590333 45630141 42920050 40340058 38790055 37790097 37780288 39060402 41300532 43270544 43380369 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 20:05:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 15:05:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062016.j56KGdjq007065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062015 NDZ000-MTZ000-062215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MT/WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062015Z - 062215Z THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/ISOLD TORNADOES TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NE MT INTO WRN ND. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWWD INTO ERN MT/WRN ND...WHILE STRONG DYNAMIC ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON OWING TO EJECTING SRN ID/NRN UT/WRN WY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH INITIALLY HAMPERED BY CLOUD COVER...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS NE MT PER VIS SATELLITE TRENDS/MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS/INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KTS OR GREATER -- PER GLASGOW WSR-88D VAD AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS -- WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/ISOLD TORNADOES. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 48760816 48650218 47830125 46040128 46110325 46870713 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 20:25:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 15:25:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062036.j56KaRVj019658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062035 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-062130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN PA/NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 416...418... VALID 062035Z - 062130Z BOW ECHO PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOVE INTO SRN VT TO WRN CT THROUGH 21Z...WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS ERN PA INTO CENTRAL/NRN NJ AND WRN LONG ISLAND. ...ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND... REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS INDICATED THE FASTEST PORTION OF A BOW ECHO...WHICH EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL TO SERN NY...AT 30-45 KT.. WITH THE 45 KT SPEED EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SRN VT THROUGH 21Z. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHICH WILL SUSTAIN EWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOW...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ...ERN PA INTO NJ/WRN LONG ISLAND... MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG SWD ACROSS ERN PA INTO NJ AND AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER WRN LONG ISLAND WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS OVER ERN PA CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS OVER THESE REGIONS. ..PETERS.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...CTP... 39897730 40837449 41777373 43247304 43797379 44237278 44027080 41357183 40757300 40217365 39827557 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 20:50:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 15:50:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062101.j56L1ACf004753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062100 PAZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-062230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA/NRN WV/NRN VA/NRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413...416... VALID 062100Z - 062230Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF WW 413 AND 416. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE ACROSS SERN PA...NRN VA/WV/MD. A SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN PA AT 30 KT AND WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A DEVELOPING COLD POOL... WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF HGR-ILG-TTN LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ALONG THE LINE. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN SWRN PA WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED INTO THE MID 80S WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS. ..IMY.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... 40438001 40167786 40407511 40077512 39597549 38687646 38477749 38437837 38597936 39848047 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 21:22:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 16:22:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062133.j56LXPTL022758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062132 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-062300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0432 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE OH/WRN PA INTO NRN/CNTRL WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415... VALID 062132Z - 062300Z CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF SEVERE WATCH 415 ACROSS SE OH/WRN PA INTO NRN/CNTRL WV. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS WW 415. ASIDE FROM ONGOING SEVERE TSTMS IN SW PA...DEVELOPMENT HAS STRUGGLED PROGRESSIVELY SWWD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH SE OH/NW WV AMIDST MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND HOT/MOIST AIRMASS...SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS AS ADDITIONAL TSTMS COULD YET DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PRIMARY THREAT WILL REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... 39908273 42107904 39577915 37458275 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 21:24:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 16:24:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062135.j56LZPfa024204@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062100 PAZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-062230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA/NRN WV/NRN VA/NRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413...416... VALID 062100Z - 062230Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF WW 413 AND 416. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE ACROSS SERN PA...NRN VA/WV/MD. A SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN PA AT 30 KT AND WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A DEVELOPING COLD POOL... WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF HGR-ILG-TTN LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ALONG THE LINE. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN SWRN PA WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED INTO THE MID 80S WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS. ..IMY.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... 40438001 40167786 40407511 40077512 39597549 38687646 38477749 38437837 38597936 39848047 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 21:39:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 16:39:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062151.j56Lp7xQ032052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062132 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-062300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0432 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE OH/WRN PA INTO NRN/CNTRL WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415... VALID 062132Z - 062300Z CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF SEVERE WATCH 415 ACROSS SE OH/WRN PA INTO NRN/CNTRL WV. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS WW 415. ASIDE FROM ONGOING SEVERE TSTMS IN SW PA...DEVELOPMENT HAS STRUGGLED PROGRESSIVELY SWWD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH SE OH/NW WV AMIDST MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND HOT/MOIST AIRMASS...SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS AS ADDITIONAL TSTMS COULD YET DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PRIMARY THREAT WILL REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... 39908273 42107904 39577915 37458275  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 21:54:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 16:54:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062206.j56M654L008082@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062204 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-062330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1208 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA/FAR SRN MN CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 062204Z - 062330Z DEVELOPING TSTMS MAY POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS ISOLD LARGE HAIL...ACROSS NE IA INTO FAR SRN MN. TOWERING CU/ISOLD TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NE IA NORTH OF I-80 INVOF WEAK WARM FRONT/CONFLUENCE AXIS. AMBIENT AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1500 J/KG MLCAPE/NEGLIGIBLE CINH PER MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. AMIDST SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SLATER IA/BLUE RIVER WI PROFILERS PORTRAY AROUND 30 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLD IN NATURE PER RISING UPPER HEIGHTS/WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND HOT/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43949297 43529112 42398978 41839000 41819198 42119350 42849419 43409442 43579429 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 22:24:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 17:24:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062235.j56MZJVh022577@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062234 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-070000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1209 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 416... VALID 062234Z - 070000Z ...DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DELMARVA... EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF PA HAS APPARENTLY AIDED CONVECTIVE SURGE ALONG PA/MD BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DELMARVA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...TRAILING TSTMS INTO SWRN PA/WV MAY POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY LESSONS THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39257754 40057604 40237423 39007486 38937635 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 22:47:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 17:47:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062259.j56Mx5Km032434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062258 KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-070030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1210 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD/WRN NEB/NW KS INTO CNTRL SD/CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 420... VALID 062258Z - 070030Z TORNADO WATCH 420 CONTINUES THROUGH 04Z ACROSS WRN SD/WRN NEB/NW KS. MONITORING TRENDS FOR ADDITIONAL WATCH INTO CNTRL SD/CNTRL NEB AND POSSIBLY NCNTRL KS...WHICH MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. ISOLD SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW KS/WRN NEB INTO WRN SD. AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE...WITH 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS/RUC SOUNDINGS. SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN PRIMARY MODE OWING TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...RANGING FROM 35-40 KTS ACROSS WRN SD TO AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS NW KS. AS STORMS CONTINUALLY MOVE INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AMIDST BACKED SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN WITH PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY HIGH CLOUD BASES/MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR...RELATIVELY GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES SEEMINGLY EXISTS FROM WCNTRL/NCNTRL NEB INTO WRN SD. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 45830270 45230036 42449819 39369784 38919971 38910181 42870341 45370385 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 23:18:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 18:18:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506062330.j56NU25D013303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062328 MTZ000-WYZ000-070030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE WY INTO SE MT CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 417... VALID 062328Z - 070030Z APPEARS TORNADO WATCH 417 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z...WITH SEVERE/ISOLD TORNADO THREAT REMAINING ACROSS SE MT EAST OF BILLINGS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PRIMARY SEVERE/ISOLD TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT NEWD OUT OF NE WY/FAR SE MT COINCIDENT WITH PROGRESSION OF LEADING VORTICITY MAXIMA EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND STORM MERGERS/GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A DOWNWARD SEVERE TREND REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. NEVERTHELESS POSSIBILITIES FOR SEVERE/ISOLD TORNADO WILL PERSIST EAST OF BILLINGS ACROSS SE MT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ... 46420719 46670614 46320413 44730410 45420683 45680692 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 00:08:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 19:08:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506070019.j570JY6o031864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070018 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-070145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1212 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/WEST TX INTO FAR SW KS/WRN OK/FAR NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419... VALID 070018Z - 070145Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE WATCH 419 CONTINUES THROUGH 03Z. AN ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT SEVERE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 01Z INTO FAR SW KS/WRN OK AND THE REMAINDER OF THE TX PANHANDLE/WEST TX. DEVELOPING LINEAR CLUSTER OF MULTICELLS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE/PROPAGATE EWD AT 25-30 KTS ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST TX. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY PER 00Z DDC/AMA/MAF OBSERVED RAOBS...WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG OR GREATER. EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT EWD OUT OF WW 419 IS UNCLEAR GIVEN EVENTUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/LIMITED BACKGROUND DYNAMIC ASCENT. NEVERTHELESS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND EXISTENT COLD POOLS/FORWARD PROPAGATION MAY SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT ENE INTO FAR SW KS/WRN OK AND THE REMAINDER OF WEST TX...SUCH THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. ..GUYER.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 36900398 38090029 37999941 36779890 33819922 31020112 30500265 30960403 31930454 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 01:27:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 20:27:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506070138.j571cF7H029277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070137 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070137 SDZ000-NDZ000-070300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1213 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0837 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND...CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070137Z - 070300Z ...WW WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS... LLJ IS IN THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING FROM NRN NEB INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SCATTERED SUPERCELLS HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS WRN SD/SWRN MT INTO SWRN ND WHERE AN AXIS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR CURRENTLY EXIST. AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. CURRENT THINKING IS TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY ELEVATE AS DECOUPLING OCCURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INHIBITION OBSERVED AT BIS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WITHIN BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME COMPLICATES THE SEVERE EVOLUTION...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WITH TIME...ONE OR MORE MCS/S MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 43550111 47830171 47420006 43599831 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 02:25:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 21:25:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506070236.j572ah7b022293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070235 NEZ000-070400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1214 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0935 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420...422... VALID 070235Z - 070400Z ...SEVERE THREAT IS BECOMING FOCUSED TO TWO MAIN CLUSTERS ACROSS NEB... HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION HAS MOVED NEWD INTO CENTRAL NEB BENEATH STRENGTHENING LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY IN ALL LIKLIHOOD HAS LIFTED SOMEWHAT...BECOMING MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. SEVERE THREAT MAY GRADUALLY WANE...OR AT LEAST BE LIMITED TO MAINLY LARGE HAIL AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES TOWARD THE ERN EDGE OF WW422. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 42819932 40279876 40300054 42450077 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 03:02:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 22:02:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506070313.j573DjCX005135@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070312 NDZ000-070445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1215 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH DAKOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070312Z - 070445Z ...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL ND. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... NRN HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION HAS PROGRESSED DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS...HAVING EVOLVED INTO AN ARCING SQUALL LINE FROM DUNN COUNTY ND TO ADAMS COUNTY ND. THIS ACTIVITY IS SURGING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED...WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS DEVELOPING MCS WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...DESPITE BEING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR DOWNSTREAM PORTIONS OF ND FOR THIS SCENARIO. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 47670260 48999901 46719743 45940122 46860203 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 03:34:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 22:34:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506070345.j573jMx2018302@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070344 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-070515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1216 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN HIGH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423... VALID 070344Z - 070515Z ...STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL PROGRESS INTO WRN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NEARING THE NERN EDGE OF WW423. THIS ACTIVITY HAS YET TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THREE NOTABLE STRONG UPDRAFTS NEAR PVW...40 E OF AMA...AND WEST OF GAG. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE STRONG VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...WHILE 03Z PROFILERS STILL DISPLAY ROUGHLY 35-40KT 6KM FLOW ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN 00Z DATA OF A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION. IF SO...STORMS MAY PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS INTO WRN PORTIONS OF OK BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 34390333 35490113 37599953 36509900 33830114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 06:38:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 01:38:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506070649.j576nS4E020292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070647 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070646 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-070815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424... VALID 070646Z - 070815Z A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ERN ND AND ERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A NEW WW ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT IN PLACE EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NE SD INTO SCNTRL MN. A CONVECTIVE LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN ND WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND ELEVATED CAPE DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE LINE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN SD...MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS BUT A CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...PROFILERS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW...SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL NOT BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN ERN SD. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BECOME MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY DROPS OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 48019990 45899981 43679955 43429860 43529730 44119689 45939677 48619715 48939861 48759978  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 09:59:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 04:59:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506071010.j57AANZ0030338@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071008 MNZ000-071215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071008Z - 071215Z A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN A LINE MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MN THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN MN WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH IS NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INCREASING DUE TO AN APPROACHING VORTICITY MAX ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER SRN SD. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOCATED ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MN. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS MAY REDUCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MN THIS MORNING. ..BROYLES.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 44279455 45459564 46939566 47119458 45929334 44549337 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 14:26:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 09:26:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506071437.j57EbMHp004844@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071436 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071436 WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-071600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN UT/SWRN WY/NWRN CO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 071436Z - 071600Z ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM NERN UT INTO SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL WY AND NWRN CO. HAIL...LOCALLY APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES...IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT DURING THE MORNING. AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT ACROSS SWRN-SRN WY INTO NWRN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-25 C AT EKO/ ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN UT AT 14Z. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED ON THE 12Z SLC SOUNDING...THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESULTED IN A FEW SEVERE HAIL REPORTS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND 700 MB THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL INTO SWRN WY/ NWRN CO TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EXIT REGION OF A 55 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO NWRN CO/SRN WY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...WHILE VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH... 40591136 43061134 43300934 43150748 42000678 41270671 40660719 39520944 39581114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 14:43:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 09:43:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506071455.j57Et3tq017340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071454 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071454 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-071700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1220 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA/SE MN/WRN INTO CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071454Z - 071700Z ...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS ONGOING STORMS BECOME SFC BASED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL... A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SE MN INTO SW WI THIS MORNING...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM OWATONNA TO WINONA. STORMS NOW W OF EAU CLAIRE WI ARE ELEVATED GIVEN WARM LAYER AROUND 850MB NOTED ON 12Z MINNEAPOLIS SOUNDING. HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH...MORE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN AN INSTABILITY AXIS...EXTENDING NORTH FROM IA. SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS NE IA AND THE SRN HALF OF WI WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S OR HIGHER. STORMS WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED THE ROCHESTER MN AREA HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF 1 INCH HAIL...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME SFC BASED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF EJECTING WAVE IN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. WHILE STORMS ARE STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 18-19Z SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BE COMPLETELY ERODED ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI. ..TAYLOR.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 42139189 42319258 42699285 44059266 45239212 45299130 45319075 45278966 44938944 44168922 43428933 42968974 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 17:55:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 12:55:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506071806.j57I6kXB019864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071806 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-072000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1221 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425... VALID 071806Z - 072000Z SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WW 425 THROUGH 21Z. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE OVER WRN WI REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG. WEAKENING INHIBITION IS EVIDENT BY RECENT TRENDS OF REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/ISOLATED SVR STORMS ALONG GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW OVER CENTRAL WI. WELL DEFINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SWRN WI ENEWD INTO CENTRAL WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GREATEST SVR HAIL POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OVER SWRN PORTIONS OF WW 425...WHERE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER MID LVL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER CENTRAL/ERN WI...FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE LINE AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... 44798773 44968902 45088992 43929104 43629128 43429120 43118800 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 18:43:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 13:43:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506071854.j57IsRIf017926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071853 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-072100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL VA SWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC...CENTRAL/ERN SC AND ERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071853Z - 072100Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SERN GA NWD TO SCENTRAL VA. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA...MID LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -9 TO -10 DEG AT 500 MB WILL SUPPORT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL. IN ADDITION...STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 DEG C/KM WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTIVE STORM MERGERS OCCUR GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY. LACK OF STRONGER FOCUSING MECHANISM AT MID LEVELS AND WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 36907873 35828042 34228262 33098339 32528313 32578209 33877991 35437758 36597715 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 19:10:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 14:10:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506071922.j57JM0Ix003286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071920 WIZ000-MNZ000-072015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SERN MN AND WCENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071920Z - 072015Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR. STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT. A WW MAY BE NEED SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW NEAR STC SEWD TO NEAR LSE. 18Z MPX SOUNDING INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 DEG C/KM. SWLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH WERE AIDING IN MIXING DOWN OF DRIER 850 MB AIR AND DEWPTS HAVE SLOWLY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S. GIVEN FOCUSED LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL /100-150 J/KG FROM 0-1 KM/ SHEAR ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE SEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44259113 45159205 45969315 46409425 44969424 43929249 43549143 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 19:18:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 14:18:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506071929.j57JTjNh008567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071929 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071928 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-072130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN OK/FAR NWRN AR...SERN KS...WRN AND NCENTRAL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071928Z - 072130Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIMITED NATURE OF THE THREAT EXPECTED ATTM WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM FAR NERN OK INTO NCENTRAL MO. SEVERAL SFC/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL INTERACT TO AID IN CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/ INTENSIFICATION. 1) AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER SCENTRAL MO WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CONVERGENCE WHILE MOVING NWWD OVER WRN/CENTRAL MO. 2) AN MCV OVER SERN KS WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER LIFT WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WWD INTO SWRN/WCENTRAL MO. DESPITE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KTS...MODERATE DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY...3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE...OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 40309342 40389475 39119520 37549552 36919564 36499576 35849519 36209369 36839304 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 19:43:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 14:43:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506071954.j57JsJD1023306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071953 SDZ000-NEZ000-072030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL SD INTO NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071953Z - 072030Z WW WILL BE REQUIRED SOON. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER SRN WY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS WY. A SECOND LOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE WITH TWO ZONES OF CONVERGENCE EXTENDING EWD AND NEWD FROM THE NEB LOW. ONE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER...AND THE SECOND EXTENDED NEWD INTO CENTRAL...THEN NERN SD. SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE WNWWD INTO WRN SD/WRN NEB WITH THE 60 F SURFACE ISODROSOTHERM NOW EXTENDING FROM FAITH SD SWD INTO NEB AT CDR TO OGA. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS AIDING IN DESTABILIZATION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING WWD INTO SWRN SD/NWRN NEB. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU/TCU CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN SD AND ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WRN SD...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO NWRN-NRN NEB AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 44830382 45360380 45640314 45520110 44710028 43789971 43539930 42879918 42339981 42210110 41920236 42070373 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 20:18:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 15:18:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506072029.j57KTXQ7013852@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072028 WIZ000-MNZ000-072100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425... VALID 072028Z - 072100Z SVR WW 425 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 21Z. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT SVR THREAT MAY BE TEMPORARILY WANING ACROSS WW 425 /CENTRAL AND SRN WI/. ISOLATED SVR STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EITHER WITH REINTENSIFICATION OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...OR NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. EWD STORM MOTIONS WOULD QUICKLY AID IN A RAPID DEMISE OF ANY BRIEF SVR THREAT THAT WOULD OCCUR WITH THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTION AS ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY STABLE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER WEST...NEW SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE BY 23Z OVER PORTIONS OF WRN WI NEAR WW 427. THUS A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE SVR THREAT MAY BECOME GREATER. ..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... 44948832 44238937 44159066 44039130 43549138 43138800 44828769 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 20:42:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 15:42:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506072053.j57Krg9v028261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072052 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072052 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-072145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1227 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN WY INTO FAR SRN/SERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426... VALID 072052Z - 072145Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NRN-NERN WY AND SERN MT. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW OVER CENTRAL WY...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING TO DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO SRN WY IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW. SURFACE WINDS AIDED IN STRENGTH BY THIS ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WERE RANGING FROM 25-40 KT ACROSS SRN WY. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO NRN-NERN WY AND SERN MT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE...BUT STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 42820875 43060919 44520971 45450938 45900883 45980706 46030473 45680396 44480399 42290413 42280532 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 21:30:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 16:30:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506072141.j57LfUo8026322@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072140 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-072245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NWRN SD...SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072140Z - 072245Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED... STRONG EXIT REGION OF SRN WY SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE NNEWD ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION INTO SERN MT/WRN ND THIS EVENING. MODELS INSIST THIS REGION WILL EXPERIENCE EXPANDING CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...SFC DEW POINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S INTO SERN MT...MAY SUPPORT TORNADO THREAT FARTHER WEST THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46180565 47640077 46179887 44970024 44780414 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 21:43:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 16:43:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506072154.j57LsZ1Z001692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072153 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-072230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0453 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN MN NRN AND CENTRAL WI...SWRN U.P OF MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 427... VALID 072153Z - 072230Z SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL WI IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS EAST OF WW 427 WITH THREAT DEVELOPING INTO SWRN U.P OF MI AFTER 00Z. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 2230Z. AIRMASS OVER NRN/CENTRAL WI WAS DESTABILIZING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION THAT RECENTLY DIMINISHED OVER ECENTRAL WI. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NRN WI THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN WARM AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME NE OF SLOWLY NEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING NW-SE OVER WRN WI AT 21Z. IN ADDITION GIVEN CURRENT STORM MOTIONS ISO SVR STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF ERN PORTIONS OF WW 427 AND BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NCENTRAL/WCENTRAL WI BY 23Z. GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...SVR HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150 J/KG BASED ON THE GRB VWP/ AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN WI WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED TOR THREAT AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46368995 46389250 46279320 44439368 43719334 43899006 44478791 46248817 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 21:47:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 16:47:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506072159.j57Lx43j003392@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072140 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-072245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NWRN SD...SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072140Z - 072245Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED... STRONG EXIT REGION OF SRN WY SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE NNEWD ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION INTO SERN MT/WRN ND THIS EVENING. MODELS INSIST THIS REGION WILL EXPERIENCE EXPANDING CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...SFC DEW POINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S INTO SERN MT...MAY SUPPORT TORNADO THREAT FARTHER WEST THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46180565 47640077 46179887 44970024 44780414  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 21:57:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 16:57:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506072208.j57M87Yo008264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072153 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-072230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0453 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN MN NRN AND CENTRAL WI...SWRN U.P OF MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 427... VALID 072153Z - 072230Z SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL WI IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS EAST OF WW 427 WITH THREAT DEVELOPING INTO SWRN U.P OF MI AFTER 00Z. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 2230Z. AIRMASS OVER NRN/CENTRAL WI WAS DESTABILIZING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION THAT RECENTLY DIMINISHED OVER ECENTRAL WI. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NRN WI THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN WARM AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME NE OF SLOWLY NEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING NW-SE OVER WRN WI AT 21Z. IN ADDITION GIVEN CURRENT STORM MOTIONS ISO SVR STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF ERN PORTIONS OF WW 427 AND BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NCENTRAL/WCENTRAL WI BY 23Z. GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...SVR HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150 J/KG BASED ON THE GRB VWP/ AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN WI WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED TOR THREAT AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46368995 46389250 46279320 44439368 43719334 43899006 44478791 46248817  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 23:18:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 18:18:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506072329.j57NThQj013701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072328 TXZ000-080130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX NWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072328Z - 080130Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN NNEWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 01Z. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF SVR THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF MDT/TOWERING CU ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SW OF MAF TO SOUTH OF LBB. 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA SUGGEST THAT VERY LITTLE CINH REMAINS DESPITE THE LACK OF GREATER STORM COVERAGE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...BACKED SELY WINDS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN WAS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THIS REGION. THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH 01Z. FARTHER NORTH OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE IT IS UNCLEAR IF STORM DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVERGENCE. FARTHER SOUTH...AND ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER PECOS COUNTY SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD INTO TERRELL COUNTY THROUGH 01Z. RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION FROM LASTING WELL AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT OVER THE BIG BEND REGION WHERE STRONGER BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT A LONGER LIVED ALBEIT SPATIALLY SMALL SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 35580049 35330135 34590167 33470203 32250235 31320288 30300295 29840262 29880197 32250088 35080033 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 00:04:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 19:04:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506080015.j580FNsH031256@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080014 NDZ000-SDZ000-080145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1231 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL DAKOTAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428...429... VALID 080014Z - 080145Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW428 AND WW429... MULTIPLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN BROADER ZONE OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM WRN SD INTO SCNTRL ND. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE BUOYANT...SBCAPES OF 3000-4000J/KG...AND STRONGLY SHEARED...FAVORING CONTINUED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. APPROACHING UPPER SPEED MAX APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING DEEPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN PROXIMITY TO SW-NE CONVECTIVE ORIENTATION. WITH TIME SUFFICIENT COLD POOL GENERATION WILL FORCE EXPANDING MCS EWD WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO VEER INTO BACK SIDE OF MCS. ..DARROW.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 43180303 44640262 46750053 46059885 43410062 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 00:33:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 19:33:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506080044.j580iCR7010552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080043 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-080215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1232 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL WI AND SWRN U.P OF MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 427...430... VALID 080043Z - 080215Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE WANING ACROSS WW 427 AS HIGH LCL/S WERE PRESENT AND LINEAR MODE WAS BECOMING DOMINANT OVER SCENTRAL/SERN MN. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BECOME LINEAR...DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THIS AREA THROUGH WW EXPIRATION TIME /02Z/. FARTHER EAST OVER NRN/CENTRAL WI AND FAR SWRN U.P OF MI...MORE ISOLATED STORMS...LOWER LCL HEIGHTS AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PER THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING INDICATE THAT THEIR REMAINS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER MUCH OF WW 430. HOWEVER...SEVERAL RECENT STORM MERGERS OVER WCENTRAL WI AND A 30-35 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL SPEED PER THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MODE WITH A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT AFTER 02Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45908712 45968927 45379134 44649302 43989407 43619430 43649276 43679177 43848778 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 02:09:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 21:09:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506080220.j582KMon022744@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080218 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-080315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1233 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN/NERN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 428...429... VALID 080218Z - 080315Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED SHORTLY... WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS. THIS APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AS DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS MN HAS STALLED AND BECOME ORIENTED IN AN E-W FASHION. MOIST...DEEP ELY FLOW INTO THE EXPANDING MCS SUGGESTS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST FOR SOME TIME. ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... 42790048 47319843 46969595 43319724 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 03:24:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 22:24:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506080336.j583a03k024782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080335 MIZ000-WIZ000-080500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080335Z - 080500Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING... UPPER RIDGE IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING LLJ TO BECOME DECIDEDLY WLY ACROSS MI AS IT FOCUSES INTO SWRN ONTARIO. EVEN SO...PROFILES STILL EXHIBIT SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT...SUGGESTING WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THIS REGION. AS A RESULT...SQUALL LINE OVER WI REMAINS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SEWD AT ROUGHLY 30KT TOWARD THE NRN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI. IT APPEARS GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER BOW-LIKE STRUCTURES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS CONSIDERABLY LESS INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS MI. ..DARROW.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB... 44748775 45608520 44678349 43968710 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 03:28:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 22:28:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506080339.j583dYcG026563@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080339 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080338 WIZ000-MNZ000-080515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL MN INTO CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080338Z - 080515Z ...NEW WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL MN INTO CNTRL WI... LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRANCH INTO TWO STREAMS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ERN STREAM ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. THE WRN STREAM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS SRN MN BETWEEN 06-09Z. SFC ANALYSES FROM THE LAST FEW HOURS SHOW TIGHTENING BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN MN. MASS INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AND A WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FROM PORTIONS OF WCNTRL MN WHERE RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST NEW CONVECTION...INTO CNTRL WI WHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SFC BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY SURGED SOUTH OF ONGOING STORMS...SO MAIN THREAT WITH ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ..TAYLOR.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...FSD... 44919170 45079516 44189550 43779291 43879062 44068962 44538942 44868939 44978965 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 04:35:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 23:35:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506080446.j584kuOS021331@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080446 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080446 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-080545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1236 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...ERN SD...WRN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 432... VALID 080446Z - 080545Z ...DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SURGING SQUALL LINE ACROSS NERN SD INTO WCNTRL MN... EXPANSIVE MCS HAS EMERGED OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING WITH A NOTABLE SURGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS NERN SD. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SQUALL LINE IS RACING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 50KT TOWARD WCNTRL PORTIONS OF MN...INVOF TRAVERSE/BIG STONE COUNTIES. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES REMAIN CAPABLE OF GENERATING SHORTLIVED TORNADOES. SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS WRN MN OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ..DARROW.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 43519811 45159722 46419794 46339467 43979606 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 05:28:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 00:28:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506080540.j585e2Fq010259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080539 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080539 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-080715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432... VALID 080539Z - 080715Z A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO WILL HAVE A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS MN OVERNIGHT. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY EAST OF WW 432. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NEWD AROUND AN LARGE UPPER-LOW CENTER OVER THE NWRN STATES. THIS WILL DRIVE THE CONVECTIVE LINE EWD ACROSS MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM NE SD ACROSS SCNTRL MN. THE MOST SEVERE STORMS SHOULD TRAVEL EWD AND NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AXIS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION....WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE PROBABLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 44009382 43799502 43969630 45189662 46289655 46679623 46869514 46609376 44859340 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 08:36:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 03:36:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506080847.j588lkhF020325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080847 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080846 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-081015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1238 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN/WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434... VALID 080846Z - 081015Z A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING ACROSS ERN MN. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP OFF AS THE LINE MOVES EWD AND A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN WI INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SW MN INTO ERN NEB. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE SFC LOW WITH ABOUT 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND A HAIL THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THE LINE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOWN BY THE RUC OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN. IN ADDITION...THE LINE SHOULD MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR IN WI ALLOWING IT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 45939003 43879048 43309137 43499360 44319430 46169386 46749307 46679119 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 13:45:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 08:45:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081356.j58DuUu2005121@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081355 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-081500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0855 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN-CENTRAL MO/ERN KS/SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081355Z - 081500Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS MUCH OF WRN-CENTRAL MO INTO ERN KS AND SRN IA. WV IMAGERY/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS TO THE KS/NEB BORDER. REGIONAL RADARS/ LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE/ INTENSITY ACROSS NWRN MO...WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN SWRN IA ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF MCS MOVING ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY ATTM. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED TCU DEVELOPING RAPIDLY SWWD INTO EAST CENTRAL KS. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY SUGGEST THE NEW STORMS AND TCU ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THE AIR MASS CAPPED ATTM...BUT STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS ERN KS INTO MUCH OF MO/SRN IA AND WRN IL WILL WEAKEN THIS CAP AS INDICATED BY CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES OF CINH AROUND -100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ATTM...THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEING FED INTO THIS REGION PER 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO COMPENSATE FOR THE SHEAR TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE NAM/RUC INDICATE THIS LLJ WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT. HOWEVER...THESE SPEEDS COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS CAP WEAKENS...PRIND SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT... 40229470 40829445 41179351 40829241 39089193 37629228 36939285 36979436 37159556 37439598 39229510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 14:37:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 09:37:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081448.j58EmGoW007284@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081447 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081447 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-081515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0947 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN IA AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081447Z - 081515Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SRN IA AND NRN MO. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG SRN/SWRN PORTION OF MCS MOVING ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONG WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH THIS ACTIVITY SUGGESTS PROPAGATION WILL CONTINUE TO THE ESE WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO. DESPITE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WEAKENING CAP WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 39059437 40419412 41229348 41509273 41609181 41369111 40639100 39779105 39029133 39119321 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 16:36:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 11:36:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081647.j58GlTnU022647@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081646 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-081715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MO INTO WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435... VALID 081646Z - 081715Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF ERN MO INTO WRN IL. WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE COLD POOL TO MID 80S DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH EXTENDED FROM SERN IA TO NWRN MO /JUST EAST OF KANSAS CITY/ WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 39829378 40579344 41259263 41269104 40888961 39348923 38328966 38299076 38549381 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 16:52:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 11:52:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081703.j58H3dfD000572@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081703 OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-081800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN IND SWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KY TO MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081703Z - 081800Z ISOLATED WIND GUSTS APPROACHING AND/OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN IND SWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KY TO MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL. SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK ZONE OF CONFLUENCE AND INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING N-S ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN. THESE STORMS...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY...APPEAR TO BE AIDED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. PULSE TYPE STORMS ARE EXPECTED... GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS /AROUND 12 KFT/ SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE... WHILE THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...PAH... 37008769 39588732 39988679 39818463 39368417 37478466 35338533 34078568 33938630 34008728 34378803 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 16:56:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 11:56:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081707.j58H7og4003726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081646 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-081715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MO INTO WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435... VALID 081646Z - 081715Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF ERN MO INTO WRN IL. WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE COLD POOL TO MID 80S DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH EXTENDED FROM SERN IA TO NWRN MO /JUST EAST OF KANSAS CITY/ WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 39829378 40579344 41259263 41269104 40888961 39348923 38328966 38299076 38549381  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 17:15:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 12:15:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081726.j58HQoC5016366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081703 OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-081800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN IND SWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KY TO MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081703Z - 081800Z ISOLATED WIND GUSTS APPROACHING AND/OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN IND SWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KY TO MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL. SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK ZONE OF CONFLUENCE AND INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING N-S ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN. THESE STORMS...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY...APPEAR TO BE AIDED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. PULSE TYPE STORMS ARE EXPECTED... GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS /AROUND 12 KFT/ SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE... WHILE THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...PAH... 37008769 39588732 39988679 39818463 39368417 37478466 35338533 34078568 33938630 34008728 34378803  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 17:51:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 12:51:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081802.j58I2wsi007436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081802 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-082000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN LA...CENTRAL/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081802Z - 082000Z STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 12Z UA ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL AN MCV WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT /- 10 TO -11 DEG C AT 500 MB/ LOCATED OVER SWRN LA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A SFC BOUNDARY AND VERY WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG HAS ALREADY AIDED IN STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/WCENTRAL MS. ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCV OVER PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL AND ERN LA DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. DESPITE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DWPTS...MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SOME MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS EVIDENT BY THE 12Z JAN AND LIX SOUNDINGS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ESPECIALLY IF COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT/STORM MERGERS OCCUR. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 33059040 32469117 31999237 31539331 31159363 30399343 30129304 30429105 30679030 30998977 31908918 32868934 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 17:53:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 12:53:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081804.j58I4SEJ008570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081803 MOZ000-KSZ000-081830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN KS INTO WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435... VALID 081803Z - 081830Z TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO REPLACE WW 435 AND EXTEND INTO ERN KS TO CENTRAL MO. EARLY AFTERNOON MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED THE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDED FROM FAR SERN NEB TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR MEDICINE LODGE AND THEN WSWWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AT 1730Z. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED TCU DEVELOPING OVER NWRN MO NEAR STJ...WITH THIS NEW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LOCATED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN MO INTO FAR SERN NEB. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 4000+ J/KG AND LITTLE TO NO CAP LEFT ACROSS THIS REGION. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SWWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOWARD SRN KS. DESPITE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARIES...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39689602 39939543 39759366 40069178 38069179 37349290 37049453 37129664 37069742 38009692 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 18:02:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 13:02:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081813.j58IDVwK014898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081802 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-082000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN LA...CENTRAL/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081802Z - 082000Z STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 12Z UA ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL AN MCV WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT /- 10 TO -11 DEG C AT 500 MB/ LOCATED OVER SWRN LA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A SFC BOUNDARY AND VERY WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG HAS ALREADY AIDED IN STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/WCENTRAL MS. ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCV OVER PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL AND ERN LA DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. DESPITE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DWPTS...MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SOME MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS EVIDENT BY THE 12Z JAN AND LIX SOUNDINGS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ESPECIALLY IF COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT/STORM MERGERS OCCUR. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 33059040 32469117 31999237 31539331 31159363 30399343 30129304 30429105 30679030 30998977 31908918 32868934  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 18:03:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 13:03:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081814.j58IEKp8015847@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081803 MOZ000-KSZ000-081830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN KS INTO WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435... VALID 081803Z - 081830Z TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO REPLACE WW 435 AND EXTEND INTO ERN KS TO CENTRAL MO. EARLY AFTERNOON MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED THE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDED FROM FAR SERN NEB TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR MEDICINE LODGE AND THEN WSWWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AT 1730Z. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED TCU DEVELOPING OVER NWRN MO NEAR STJ...WITH THIS NEW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LOCATED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN MO INTO FAR SERN NEB. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 4000+ J/KG AND LITTLE TO NO CAP LEFT ACROSS THIS REGION. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SWWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOWARD SRN KS. DESPITE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARIES...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39689602 39939543 39759366 40069178 38069179 37349290 37049453 37129664 37069742 38009692  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 18:42:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 13:42:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081853.j58IrIgf010892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081852 ILZ000-MOZ000-081915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1245 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IL INTO EAST CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436... VALID 081852Z - 081915Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO LIKELY REPLACE WW 436. WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH LEADING EDGE BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE INTO IL AND NERN-ERN MO ATTM. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE NRN PART OF THE BOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MERCER COUNTY IL...AND NEWD TO FAR SERN WI. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THIS BOW MOVES ESEWD INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS IL INTO ERN MO. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND BOW ECHO...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ENHANCED. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39339137 40229118 41269053 41858941 41938874 41018813 39668821 38688845 38218915 38209018 38409109 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 19:12:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 14:12:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081923.j58JNli5031973@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081923 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081922 NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-082115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1246 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECENTRAL NY...SRN VT/SRN NH AND NWRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081922Z - 082115Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NRN NY AS IT MOVES ESEWD INTO SRN VT/NH AND ECENTRAL NY. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NRN NY WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. AREA REMAINS ON THE SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE CANADA. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES FAVORS LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS MAY ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL GIVEN AMT OF INSTABILITY. LIMITED WIND STRENGTH /AOB 20 KTS/ IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER ORGANIZED WIND THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43787193 44077364 44027481 43907514 43457539 43087528 42787417 42747258 42817168 43607147 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 19:48:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 14:48:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506081959.j58JxRDZ023334@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081958 MIZ000-082200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1247 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081958Z - 082200Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER NRN LOWER MI. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS OVER NCENTRAL LOWER MI HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF BEING IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH PULSE TYPE NATURE OBSERVED WHILE CONVECTION IS BEING UNDERCUT BY LAKE BREEZE FRONT. VIS SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING N-S OVER WRN LOWER MI IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. IN THE SHORT TERM /NEXT 1-2 HOURS/...WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...AS EVIDENT BY 18Z DTX SOUNDING WILL LIKELY MITIGATE A GREATER SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS IN THE GRB VWP SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED TO OVER 40 KTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCV MOVING EWD OVER ERN WI. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING ORGANIZED SVR THREAT AND POSSIBLE WW GIVEN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH MUCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF LOWER MI. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 44938436 44728518 43838588 42968593 42478580 42488444 43128287 43968278 44758366 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 20:39:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 15:39:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506082051.j58Kp0AE024986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082049 WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-082245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1248 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN ND...NWRN AND NCENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082049Z - 082245Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER FAR NERN ND TO THE NW OF GFK. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW INTO WCENTRAL/SWRN MN. WEST OF THIS TROUGH...DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S. ATTM...ENOUGH CINH REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE AREA LIMITING STORM DEVELOPMENT TO PORTIONS OF NERN ND WHERE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS OVER NWRN/NCENTRAL MN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEWPTS SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN ENVIRONMENT OF MUCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND LITTLE REMAINING CINH. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH SHEAR THAT LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A WW WILL BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL WARMING GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER NRN AND CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH DESPITE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS... 47759369 48759499 48879811 48289869 48029928 47609867 47249616 46669582 46089541 45389487 45369345 45629253 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 20:51:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 15:51:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506082102.j58L2HWi031405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082100 MOZ000-KSZ000-082200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN-CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 437... VALID 082100Z - 082200Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF WW 437. SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTINUED WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S/ RESULTING IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-5000 J/KG. REGIONAL RADARS/VIS IMAGERY INDICATED TCU DEVELOPING ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THIS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT THE PRESENT TIME BETWEEN EMP-STJ. DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PER MODIFIED OLATHE KANSAS WIND PROFILER FOR CURRENT OJC SURFACE WIND HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO...GIVEN /SFC-6 KM SHEAR AT 32 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH AROUND 150 M2/S2. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH STORMS OVER THE ERN PORTION OF WW 437 AS WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IN WAKE OF E-W ORIENTED SQUALL LINE OVER CENTRAL MO MOVES SWD. SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN COLD POOL AND PRE-CONVECTIVE AIR MASS RANGES FROM 25-30 DEGREES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PORTION OF WW THIS AFTERNOON...AS SQUALL LINE MOVES INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500-4000 J/KG/. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39339712 39819158 37829157 37299712 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 20:53:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 15:53:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506082104.j58L4QrC000988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082049 WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-082245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1248 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN ND...NWRN AND NCENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082049Z - 082245Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER FAR NERN ND TO THE NW OF GFK. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW INTO WCENTRAL/SWRN MN. WEST OF THIS TROUGH...DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S. ATTM...ENOUGH CINH REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE AREA LIMITING STORM DEVELOPMENT TO PORTIONS OF NERN ND WHERE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS OVER NWRN/NCENTRAL MN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEWPTS SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN ENVIRONMENT OF MUCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND LITTLE REMAINING CINH. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH SHEAR THAT LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A WW WILL BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL WARMING GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER NRN AND CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH DESPITE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS... 47759369 48759499 48879811 48289869 48029928 47609867 47249616 46669582 46089541 45389487 45369345 45629253  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 20:59:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 15:59:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506082110.j58LA7Yd004658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082100 MOZ000-KSZ000-082200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN-CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 437... VALID 082100Z - 082200Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF WW 437. SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTINUED WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S/ RESULTING IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-5000 J/KG. REGIONAL RADARS/VIS IMAGERY INDICATED TCU DEVELOPING ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THIS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT THE PRESENT TIME BETWEEN EMP-STJ. DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PER MODIFIED OLATHE KANSAS WIND PROFILER FOR CURRENT OJC SURFACE WIND HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO...GIVEN /SFC-6 KM SHEAR AT 32 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH AROUND 150 M2/S2. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH STORMS OVER THE ERN PORTION OF WW 437 AS WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IN WAKE OF E-W ORIENTED SQUALL LINE OVER CENTRAL MO MOVES SWD. SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN COLD POOL AND PRE-CONVECTIVE AIR MASS RANGES FROM 25-30 DEGREES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PORTION OF WW THIS AFTERNOON...AS SQUALL LINE MOVES INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500-4000 J/KG/. ..PETERS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39339712 39819158 37829157 37299712  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 21:02:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 16:02:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506082113.j58LDEJV005984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082112 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082112 ILZ000-MOZ000-082315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IL AND PORTIONS OF ERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438... VALID 082112Z - 082315Z WELL DEFINED COLD POOL EVIDENT OVER WCENTRAL IL/NERN MO WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SEWD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH MUCH OF WW 438 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NERN/ECENTRAL IL...HOWEVER CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SVR THREAT IN THIS AREA MAY BE WANING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A GUST FRONT MOVING SEWD AT 35 KTS ACROSS ECENTRAL MO/WCENTRAL IL NEAR THE STL METRO AREA. NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS GUST FRONT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED SVR THREAT WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS THE STL METRO AREA AND INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW 438 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND STRENGTH OF LINE...A NEW WW OVER SERN MO/SRN IL MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...THE GUST FRONT WAS SURGING EAST OF CONVECTION OVER ERN IL. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...SVR THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE MITIGATED OVER THIS REGION BEFORE 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF... 41608879 40938922 39998955 39099069 39149158 37919157 37349158 39408761 42008759 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 22:10:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 17:10:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506082221.j58MLZgV011071@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082220 KSZ000-OKZ000-090015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS...FAR NWRN/NCENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082220Z - 090015Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE INTERSECTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR ICT SWWD TO NEAR WOODWARD OK OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WINDS WERE BECOMING MORE CONVERGENT OVER SCENTRAL KS/NWRN OK ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE INTERSECTION. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WAS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES FROM 5000-6000 J/KG. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CORRIDOR FROM NEAR ICT SWWD TO JUST NW OF WOODWARD IN THE NEXT HOUR. DESPITE WEAKENING CINH...MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND STILL MARGINAL CONVERGENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. IF A STORM OR TWO DOES FORM...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY WOULD FAVOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO THREAT EARLY IN SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38009756 37649854 37369922 37149982 36669982 36299967 36439905 36779838 37289709 37689696 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 22:53:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 17:53:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506082304.j58N4ELN031729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082303 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-090030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082303Z - 090030Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTH OF CDS TO NEAR LBB SWD INTO THE DAVID MTNS. ISOLATED NATURE SUGGESTS THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR CDS SWWD TO SOUTH OF INK. CONVERGENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THUS ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT MOST ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM AND ROOT INTO HIGHER DEWPT AIR WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. ..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 34530034 33990159 33520236 33180290 31800341 30570301 30070262 30300199 32130144 32999990 33969907 34569948 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 23:12:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 18:12:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506082323.j58NN35k008138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082322 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-090045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1253 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IL...E CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438... VALID 082322Z - 090045Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM NERN IL SSWWD INTO CENTRAL / SRN IL AND THEN WWD INTO E CENTRAL MO. ONLY THE EXTREME ERN AND FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF WW REMAIN AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT WEAKER INSTABILITY / SHEAR ACROSS INDIANA SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING TREND ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT / LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL MO -- IN AND NEAR ERN PORTIONS OF WW 437 -- WHERE COMBINATION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED. ..GOSS.. 06/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF... 41468792 41318726 40348702 39568699 38188791 37298942 36979132 37499243 38319270 39099231 39398982 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 00:15:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 19:15:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506090026.j590Qo1G002529@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090026 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-090200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1254 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK / CENTRAL AND ERN KS / WRN MO... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437... VALID 090026Z - 090200Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW...WITH SOME THREAT EXTENDING WSWWD FROM WRN PORTIONS OF WATCH INTO NWRN OK. NEW / REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. WIDESPREAD STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NERN KS SWWD INTO NWRN OK...WITHIN MOIST / EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MO / IL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING WWD ACROSS W CENTRAL MO. AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFY ACROSS SRN KS / SWRN MO...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE / INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME INVOF BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES. WITH DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET / ENHANCED SHEAR AND VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WITH TIME HOWEVER...EXPECT STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR-TYPE MCS...ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. WITH WW SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 09/02Z AND SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL BEYOND THIS TIME...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 39579616 39649461 38629354 37909315 36899588 36189908 37439961 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 00:52:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 19:52:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506090103.j5913nCi016870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090102 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-090200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1255 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / NERN KS / SWRN IA / NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 439... VALID 090102Z - 090200Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS WW AS WATCH NEARS ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION. GENERALLY WEAK / SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW. THOUGH STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN S OF THIS REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS NERN KS. THOUGH A FEW OF THESE NERN KS COUNTIES MAY BE INCLUDED IN A NEW WW OVER PARTS OF KS / MO REPLACING WW 437...WW 439 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 09/02Z. ..GOSS.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 41079700 41379425 39669399 39249661 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 04:28:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 23:28:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506090439.j594djZR011031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090439 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090438 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-090615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1256 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN KS / W CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440... VALID 090438Z - 090615Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WW. THOUGH STORMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW -- INTO WRN MO...STRONG / SEVERE STORMS PERSIST ACROSS S CENTRAL / SERN KS AS COLD POOL CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AIMED INTO SRN KS AND EXTREME INSTABILITY PERSISTING ACROSS THIS REGION...CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD / LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT ATTM EXISTS JUST N OF ICT...WHERE A CLUSTER OF LARGE / INTENSE STORMS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL ALSO APPEARS LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HAIL / WIND THREAT CONTINUES...AND SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY SWD AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD NRN OK. ..GOSS.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37039937 39079789 39169671 37999561 37989490 38249426 37979327 37419327 36759929 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 16:41:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 11:41:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506091652.j59GqmVd004060@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091652 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091651 OKZ000-091845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH W CNTRL AND SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091651Z - 091845Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS OVER CNTRL OK...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WWD AND SWWD DEVELOPMENT INTO WRN OK. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATE THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN AR JUST N OF FORT SMITH WNWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY THEN NWWD TO NEAR GAGE. DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN THROUGH WRN OK AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...15 TO 20 KT SLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE CAP WEAKENS. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY N OF THE BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. IF ENOUGH STORMS DEVELOP TO ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...SOME SLOW SWWD DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36069905 35919826 35959704 35689602 34919601 34509683 34559818 35039922 35979969 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 16:44:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 11:44:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506091655.j59Gt4uK006285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091654 COR OKZ000-091845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH W CNTRL AND SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091654Z - 091845Z CORRECTED FOR 6TH SENTENCE IN SECOND PARAGRAPH STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS OVER CNTRL OK...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WWD AND SWWD DEVELOPMENT INTO WRN OK. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATE THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN AR JUST N OF FORT SMITH WNWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY THEN NWWD TO NEAR GAGE. DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN THROUGH WRN OK AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...15 TO 20 KT SLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE CAP WEAKENS. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY N OF THE BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. IF ENOUGH STORMS DEVELOP TO ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...SOME SLOW SWWD DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36069905 35919826 35959704 35689602 34919601 34509683 34559818 35039922 35979969 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 16:46:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 11:46:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506091657.j59GvcIS007789@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091652 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091651 OKZ000-091845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH W CNTRL AND SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091651Z - 091845Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS OVER CNTRL OK...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WWD AND SWWD DEVELOPMENT INTO WRN OK. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATE THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN AR JUST N OF FORT SMITH WNWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY THEN NWWD TO NEAR GAGE. DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN THROUGH WRN OK AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...15 TO 20 KT SLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE CAP WEAKENS. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY N OF THE BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. IF ENOUGH STORMS DEVELOP TO ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...SOME SLOW SWWD DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36069905 35919826 35959704 35689602 34919601 34509683 34559818 35039922 35979969  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 16:48:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 11:48:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506091659.j59GxBuD009289@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091654 COR OKZ000-091845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH W CNTRL AND SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091654Z - 091845Z CORRECTED FOR 6TH SENTENCE IN SECOND PARAGRAPH STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS OVER CNTRL OK...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WWD AND SWWD DEVELOPMENT INTO WRN OK. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATE THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN AR JUST N OF FORT SMITH WNWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY THEN NWWD TO NEAR GAGE. DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN THROUGH WRN OK AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...15 TO 20 KT SLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE CAP WEAKENS. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY N OF THE BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. IF ENOUGH STORMS DEVELOP TO ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...SOME SLOW SWWD DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36069905 35919826 35959704 35689602 34919601 34509683 34559818 35039922 35979969  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 18:05:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 13:05:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506091816.j59IGAAG024869@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091815 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-092015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1258 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL NY...VT/NH AND WRN ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091815Z - 092015Z TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA POSES A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL RISK APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. FCST SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OVER THE AREA SUGGESTS THAT MUCAPES WERE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG OVER THE REGION. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN ONTARIO EWD ACROSS NRN NY...NRN VT/NRN NH INTO SWRN ME. AN UPPER WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER ERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AFOREMENTIONED E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK /AOB 30 KTS/ THUS...GIVEN VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW...OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR TYPE STORM STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR TYPE STRUCTURES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FURTHER SUPPORT CONVECTION EVENTUALLY BECOMING LINEAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ESEWD AROUND 20 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTIONS WITHIN INDIVIDUAL LINE SEGMENTS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 44767143 45097330 44757519 44267574 43877574 43257448 43337273 43227153 43577051 44017015 44627062 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 18:22:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 13:22:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506091834.j59IY5T3003593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091832 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-092100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS THROUGH ERN OK PANHANDLE...NERN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091832Z - 092100Z WRN KS THROUGH THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES INTO NWRN OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS BY 21Z. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY 21Z. THIS AFTERNOON A LARGE NEARLY STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OK NWWD THROUGH NWRN OK THEN NWD INTO WRN KS. A SURFACE LOW EXIST OVER SWRN KS WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN KS AND IS ADVECTING RICHER MOISTURE NWD WHERE IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONTRIBUTE TO RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RECOVERED INTO THE MID 60S OVER MUCH OF WRN KS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE 18Z RAOB FROM AMA SHOWED LITTLE CAP REMAINING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE DRYLINE SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX EWD AND MIGHT EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE AND OR ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED AS STORMS MOVE EWD AND OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE BACKED SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN LARGER LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... 36319909 35430021 35840098 39000134 39320044 37689995 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 19:27:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 14:27:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506091938.j59JcIcc010407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091935 MIZ000-WIZ000-092130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI WWD INTO ERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091935Z - 092130Z TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN LOWER MI ALONG LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY BEGIN TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THERE IS ALSO SOME CHANCE THAT ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER ERN WI/PORTIONS OF WCENTRAL/NWRN LOWER MI IN THE SAME TIME FRAME. WELL DEFINED MCV OVER ERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO WI THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BLR PROFILER SHOWS MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 40 KTS. APX VWP DATA SHOWS 5 KM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KTS. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS OVER THE AREA...COMBINED WITH ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI. FARTHER WEST OVER ERN WI IF THE CIRRUS SHIELD DOES NOT ADVANCE TOO RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH 21Z...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE PRESENT FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE CASE ONLY IF REMAINING CINH IS REMOVED AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX... 44698667 43698912 43158944 42558886 42528876 42548629 43158473 43658364 44848361 45508411 45288502 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 19:33:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 14:33:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506091944.j59Jip8B014397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091943 TXZ000-NMZ000-092145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NM THROUGH W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091943Z - 092145Z SERN NM THROUGH PARTS OF WRN TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. IF STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST INITIATION IS IMMINENT...A WW WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE JUST W OF AMARILLO SWWD INTO EXTREME SERN NM THEN SWD TO JUST E OF FORT STOCKTON. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE E OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE FROM 3500 TO 4000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF AND W OF THE DRYLINE WHERE DEEP MIXING IS OCCURRING. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD MOVE EWD AND INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERCEPT THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KT AND MODERATE WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT GIVEN SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 32210283 33230326 33840310 34860225 35590154 34900087 33180163 31080174 31010242 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 20:01:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 15:01:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506092012.j59KCcdn032503@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092011 OKZ000-092215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH WRN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441... VALID 092011Z - 092215Z GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE TORNADO WATCH OVER WRN OK. SOME POTENTIAL...THOUGH SOMEWHAT REDUCED...STILL EXISTS FOR A STORM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP OVER CNTRL OK. THIS AFTERNOON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WRN AR NEAR FORT SMITH WWD TO NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY THEN NW TO E OF GAGE. PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL OK HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED...AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. ALSO THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS BECOME MORE FOCUSED FARTHER W FROM NWRN OK INTO WRN KS. GIVEN THESE LIMITING FACTORS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CNTRL OK. HOWEVER...THE CAP HAS UNDERGONE SOME WEAKENING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 90 S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE MLCAPE NEAR 4000 J/KG EXISTS. IF A STORM OR TWO MANAGES TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD LIKELY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. ..DIAL.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34839600 34759796 35439816 36249721 35649562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 20:48:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 15:48:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506092059.j59KxaO7032270@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092058 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-092300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1263 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB...SCENTRAL/SERN SD...NWRN IA AND SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092058Z - 092300Z WE ARE MONITORING THE AREA FOR INCREASING TRENDS AND A POTENTIAL FOR A WW BY 22Z. INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION IN ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NCENTRAL NEB/SCENTRAL SD. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES RISING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY MOVE ENEWD INTO SCENTRAL SD. FARTHER EAST...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NERN NEB/NWRN IA AND FAR SERN SD ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY SUPPORT SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 15 KTS/ IN THIS AREA AS EVIDENT BY 20Z MRR PROFILER AND FSD VWP DATA SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN DEVELOP/INTENSIFY GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 44009819 44059522 43389400 42799364 41949570 41849665 41979856 42159989 42540053 43560042 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 21:38:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 16:38:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506092148.j59Lmx8S028792@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092148 OKZ000-092215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0448 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441... VALID 092148Z - 092215Z WW 441 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 22Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE LEFT TO FOCUS NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL/SCENTRAL OK. ISOLATED NEW SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA COUNTY ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...GIVEN WWD MOTION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND MODERATE CINH EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SVR THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN ERN PORTIONS OF WW 442 NORTH OF KIOWA COUNTY AND WEST OF MAJOR AND BLAINE COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34999876 36419843 35669607 34219620 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 22:18:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 17:18:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506092229.j59MTJcM017898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092228 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-100000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1265 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S CENTRAL NEB / WRN AND N CENTRAL KS... CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 442... VALID 092228Z - 100000Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WW. NEW WW WILL BE NECESSARY SHORTLY INTO N CENTRAL KS / S CENTRAL NEB JUST E OF WW 442. SEVERAL SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE ERN HALF OF WW 442...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM NOW AFFECTING PARTS OF GRAHAM AND ROOKS COUNTIES IN NWRN KS. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. THOUGH INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH ERN EXTENT ACROSS NEB / KS...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO RECOVER ACROSS N CENTRAL KS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AFOREMENTIONED GRAHAM / ROOKS COUNTY STORM TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED E OF TORNADO WATCH 442 SHORTLY. ..GOSS.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA... 41170152 41189786 38689746 36930042 39290061 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 22:20:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 17:20:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506092231.j59MVLAE018759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092230 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-100000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1266 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092230Z - 100000Z TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF NRN CO SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE SHORTLY. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG/ EXTENDING WWD FROM SWRN NEB/NWRN KS INTO NERN CO ON THE NORTH SIDE OF SFC LOW OVER WCENTRAL KS. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWS MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ATOP NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING AROUND 50 KTS OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OVER NERN CO MORE THAN AMPLE FOR SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OVER NERN CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE. ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AS STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVEN NELY SFC WIND FIELDS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41180234 41330315 41020406 40660462 40270459 39500411 39130341 39150190 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 22:23:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 17:23:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506092234.j59MYA65020410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092228 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-100000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1265 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S CENTRAL NEB / WRN AND N CENTRAL KS... CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 442... VALID 092228Z - 100000Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WW. NEW WW WILL BE NECESSARY SHORTLY INTO N CENTRAL KS / S CENTRAL NEB JUST E OF WW 442. SEVERAL SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE ERN HALF OF WW 442...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM NOW AFFECTING PARTS OF GRAHAM AND ROOKS COUNTIES IN NWRN KS. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. THOUGH INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH ERN EXTENT ACROSS NEB / KS...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO RECOVER ACROSS N CENTRAL KS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AFOREMENTIONED GRAHAM / ROOKS COUNTY STORM TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED E OF TORNADO WATCH 442 SHORTLY. ..GOSS.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA... 41170152 41189786 38689746 36930042 39290061  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 22:23:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 17:23:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506092234.j59MYrLp020710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092230 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-100000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1266 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092230Z - 100000Z TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF NRN CO SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE SHORTLY. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG/ EXTENDING WWD FROM SWRN NEB/NWRN KS INTO NERN CO ON THE NORTH SIDE OF SFC LOW OVER WCENTRAL KS. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWS MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ATOP NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING AROUND 50 KTS OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OVER NERN CO MORE THAN AMPLE FOR SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OVER NERN CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE. ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AS STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVEN NELY SFC WIND FIELDS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41180234 41330315 41020406 40660462 40270459 39500411 39130341 39150190  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 23:18:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 18:18:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506092329.j59NTMdM015380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092328 OKZ000-TXZ000-100100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1267 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 443... VALID 092328Z - 100100Z STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE / WITHIN WRN HALF OF WW. LATEST VISIBLE / RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF DRYLINE NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR AMA SWD TO NEAR FST. AIRMASS E OF DRYLINE REMAINS MOIST / UNSTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND MEAN-LAYER CAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. ALONG WITH FAVORABLY MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS...SELY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 KT VEER TO VEER TO WSWLY AT 40 KT AT MID-LEVELS...RESULTING IN FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT. EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST -- AND PERHAPS INCREASE WITH TIME...AS INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SFC-1 KM SHEAR...POSSIBLY ENHANCING TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..GOSS.. 06/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 35500195 35509949 30230088 30250343 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 10 00:32:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 19:32:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506100043.j5A0hNkG012743@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100042 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-100215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND ERN NEB / N CENTRAL AND NERN KS / WRN IA / NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 444... VALID 100042Z - 100215Z SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD WITH TIME LIKELY REQUIRING NEW WW ISSUANCE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NEB AND POSSIBLY NERN KS INTO WRN IA / NWRN MO. THOUGH TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW -- PARTICULARLY IN SWRN PORTIONS OF WATCH BOX OVER N CENTRAL KS...STORMS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NE APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING INTO A LINEAR / BOWING MCS AS THEY SHIFT EWD ALONG THE KS / NEB BORDER. THOUGH AIRMASS FURTHER E REMAINS LESS MOIST / UNSTABLE...ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED EWD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EWD ACROSS NERN KS / NEB AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY INTO WRN IA / NWRN MO. ..GOSS.. 06/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC... 41899830 42209745 42459555 41549483 40349472 39629539 38849903 39739914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 10 01:24:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 20:24:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506100135.j5A1ZYaP002681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100134 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-100330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1269 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0834 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO/SRN NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445... VALID 100134Z - 100330Z THREAT FOR SVR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF WW 445. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 50S OVER THE FRONT RANGE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDING INDICATES THAT SUFFICIENT MUCINH /50-100 J/KG/ NOW EXISTS THAT FURTHER SVR THREAT OVER THE FRONT RANGE APPEARS LIMITED. CONVECTION THAT AIDED IN RAIN COOLED AIR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION WAS GRADUALLY STABILIZING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW THROUGH 03-04Z WHERE CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO GREATER INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG/ OVER NERN CO/SRN NEB PANHANDLE AS EVIDENT BY 00Z LBF SOUNDING. ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 41420239 39180187 39120486 41010528 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 10 02:17:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 21:17:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506100228.j5A2SRLA023763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100227 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100227 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-100400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB / WRN KS / WRN OK / THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS / TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 442...443... VALID 100227Z - 100400Z TORNADO / SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF WW 442...AND MOST OF THE SRN 2/3 OF WW 443. SRN PORTIONS OF WW 442 AND NRN PORTIONS OF WW 443 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY A NEW TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY. SEVERAL SEVERE -- AND COUPLE OF POTENTIALLY TORNADIC -- SUPERCELLS CONTINUE FROM SWRN KS SSWWD TOWARD LBB...AHEAD OF RETREATING DRYLINE. STRONGEST STORM CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SUPERCELL NOW ACROSS FLOYD / NRN CROSBY COUNTIES IN THE TX SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THIS STORM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY SEWD...AND MAY MOVE INTO DICKENS COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS / ERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR / INSTABILITY EXISTS. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING EWD ACROSS SWRN OK...E OF WW 443. WILL LIKELY REPLACE THESE TWO WATCHES SHORTLY WITH A SINGLE TORNADO WATCH COVERING PARTS OF WRN KS THE ERN TX / OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK AND WRN N TX / THE TX S PLAINS. ..GOSS.. 06/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32780084 32900230 35890160 37830022 37999805 35819826 34029872 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 10 02:31:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 21:31:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506100242.j5A2gaDT029973@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100241 KSZ000-NEZ000-100445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1271 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0941 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN NEB...NCENTRAL/NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 444... VALID 100241Z - 100445Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES OVER WW 444 APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST HOUR. SCENTRAL NEB PORTIONS OF WW 444 WILL BE CLEARED IN THE NEXT WW STATUS MESSAGE. SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD INTO WW 446/NERN KS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER NCENTRAL/NERN KS BEYOND WW 444 EXPIRATION TIME /04Z/. THUS A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BEFORE THEN THAT WILL REPLACE WW 444 AND MAY ALSO REPLACE WW 446. SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS STRONG LIFT INTO E-W ORIENTED CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG INFLOW WITH 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED ISOLATED SVR THREAT WITH CONVECTION OVER NCENTRAL KS AS IT MOVES GRADUALLY INTO NERN KS. FARTHER NORTH...GIVEN OUTFLOW MOVING EAST OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SERN NEB...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHING OVER THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39419903 39969824 40259695 40049573 39689526 39169503 38719800 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 11 20:43:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 15:43:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506112054.j5BKsNuP018372@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112038 WIZ000-MIZ000-112215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE WI/UPPER PENINSULA OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112038Z - 112215Z ...WATCH WILL BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 459 SHORTLY... AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AS FULL SUN HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS EXTENDING SE OF DULUTH TO THE NORTHWEST OF MADISON CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KT PER AREA VWP DATA WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. ..TAYLOR.. 06/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX... 46368998 46189057 44118938 43038851 42948783 43918754 45498738 46638806 46778852  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 11 21:54:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 16:54:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506112205.j5BM5OaV014774@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112204 WIZ000-MNZ000-112330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW WI/ERN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459... VALID 112204Z - 112330Z ...ISOLD SHORT TERM THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT BUT OVERALL THREAT SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING WITHIN WW 459 AND IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY... SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SW OF FARGO THROUGH CNTRL MN/NRN WI FROM NEAR AXN TO RPD. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MAJORITY OF SVR STORMS NOW MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 461...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE CELLS SW OF DULUTH. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF LOW LEVEL MESOS/TORNADOES...BUT AS THEY MOVE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND INTERACT WITH COOL STABLE LAKE BREEZE INVOF SUPERIOR...THEY WILL WEAKEN. FARTHER SOUTH OVER SRN WI...WHILE ISOLD SVR WX IS POSSIBLE...THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NRN MN AND THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A LONG TERM SVR THREAT. THEREFORE...WW 459 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 00Z. ..TAYLOR.. 06/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... 45769082 45809337 46439339 46689218 46669107 46099026 45889029 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 11 22:17:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 17:17:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506112229.j5BMTArS024337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112228 TXZ000-120030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112228Z - 120030Z WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AS STORMS MAY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND SLOW TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY NEAR/EAST OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...WHERE HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING HAVE OVERCOME INHIBITION. INFLUENCE OF FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF JET SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS...AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS FROM WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MID/UPPER FLOW FIELDS APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH AT LEAST LATE EVENING...BUT STRONG TURNING FROM LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO UPPER WESTERLIES IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. IN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG...VERY LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF FORT STOCKTON. ..KERR.. 06/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... 29360290 30220353 31270288 31830269 31580194 30610178 30000193 29830215 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 11 22:43:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 17:43:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506112254.j5BMsqrZ002239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112254 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-120100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW..N CNTRL OK AND PARTS OF SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112254Z - 120100Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...IS COMING FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ZONE OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT APPEARS TO EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS JUST SOUTH OF GAGE OK INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF PONCA CITY...WHERE INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASING FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS CLUSTER BEGINS TO EXPAND...EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RISK OF DOWNBURSTS AND FORMATION OF BROADER SCALE OUTFLOWS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..KERR.. 06/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37069931 37419804 37639692 37539602 36549598 36089689 35899777 35569879 35459951 35750001 36689997 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 11 23:24:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 18:24:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506112335.j5BNZUCe016612@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112334 MIZ000-WIZ000-120100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1301 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER PENINSULA OF MI/NERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461... VALID 112334Z - 120100Z ...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AHEAD OF SEVERE SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS UPPER PENINSULA AND NERN WI... SQUALL LINE NORTHWEST OF GREEN BAY WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE CNTRL UPPER PENINSULA...AND THE REMAINDER OF NERN WI WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT PER GREEN BAY VWP DATA HAS SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING STRUCTURES WITHIN LINE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...WHICH HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE. RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GUSTS TO 54 KT AT CLINTONVILLE /CLI/ SO THERE IS CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR 50-60 MPH GUSTS AHEAD OF STRONGEST STORMS. LAKE BREEZE MOVING W/NW FROM GREEN BAY MAY INTERFERE WITH SRN STORM...BUT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LINE MAY REMAIN INTACT BEFORE REACHING THE UP OF MICHIGAN. ..TAYLOR.. 06/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB... 44688719 44058792 44258883 45298888 46608988 46838940 46878854 46618784 46128707 45398685 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 11 23:42:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 18:42:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506112354.j5BNs7KV022720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112352 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-120145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...TX PNHDL...WRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 460...462... VALID 112352Z - 120145Z CONTINUE WWS. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...IS BECOMING CLUSTERED NEAR AMARILLO. THIS APPEARS TO BE NEAR INTERSECTION OF DRY LINE AND REMNANT SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALREADY APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT...WITH EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS LIKELY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED TORNADO/LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH 01-02Z...BEFORE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT. SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF EVOLVING CLUSTER OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WHILE ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS. ..KERR.. 06/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 33530209 34340191 34910196 35040269 36120241 36400121 36819997 37509802 37639663 36259723 35589900 34800046 34060085 33310176  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 01:17:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 20:17:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506120128.j5C1SlV3022589@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120127 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-120200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0827 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/TX PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 460... VALID 120127Z - 120200Z PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS DEVELOPING EAST OF WW 460...AND PLANS ARE TO ALLOW MUCH OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW TO EXPIRE. WW MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY ACROSS THE AMARILLO VICINITY. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE NEAR THE AMARILLO AREA. SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS NOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF AMARILLO...BUT VIGOROUS CONVECTION FORMING ABOVE/NORTH OF TRAILING SURFACE COLD POOL MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...BEFORE DIMINISHING/SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ..KERR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 33530209 34340191 34910196 35150241 35790203 36400121 36819997 37509802 37639663 36259723 35589900 34800046 34060085 33310176 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 03:01:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 22:01:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506120312.j5C3CZXt024083@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120311 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-120415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...TX PNHDL...WRN OK...SRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 462... VALID 120311Z - 120415Z NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 04Z...PRIMARILY FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...POSSIBLY PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS VERY STRONG MID/UPPER JET CONTINUES TO DIG INTO BASE OF BROADER SCALE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH OVERNIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE ON INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION... PIVOTING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THUS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...AS HEAVIER RAIN CORES BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNSATURATED MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR DOWNBURST AND EASTWARD SURGING OUTFLOW INTO/ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING. OTHER VIGOROUS STORMS NOW APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST ABOVE SURFACE COLD POOL NEAR THE AMARILLO AREA A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO FORM ON STALLING SYNOPTIC EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ROCKIES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL APPEARS PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..KERR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 35880516 36300445 36370255 36660128 36770073 37239979 37599924 37669798 36979751 36309794 35389856 34279993 34120046 34150165 34480158 34750168 34700229 34680271 35030294 35460241 35960232 35860312 35630438 35660522 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 09:53:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 04:53:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506121004.j5CA4RRY006247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121003 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-121230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NM....PANHANDLES OF TX/OK...EXTREME NWRN OK AND SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121003Z - 121230Z ACARS/WATER VAPOR SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO EJECT NEWD FROM SRN CO/CNTRL NM TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE REFLECTION/COLD FRONT PASSED CLINES CORNERS NM AROUND 08Z AND APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING EWD INTO ECNTRL NM ATTM. RECENT RADAR SHOWS A FEW RETURNS DEVELOPING VCNTY THIS FRONT WEST OF CLOVIS NM. OTHER STORMS...BEING AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KT LLJ...EXTEND EWD INTO THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES...ALONG/N OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/SPREAD EWD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE 00Z RAOBS AND CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED BUOYANCY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MUCAPE VALUES. GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE ASCENT...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT TSTMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM ECNTRL NM NEWD TOWARD EXTREME NWRN OK AND SWRN KS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EWD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY TEND TO TRAIN NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS CURRENTLY WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MID-LEVEL ROTATION WITH THE DEVELOPING STORMS. BUT...LATER THIS MORNING...INCREASING MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS /ALREADY NOTED ON THE TCU PROFILER/ AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION IN THE STRONGER STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO BE A FACTOR...MAINLY LATER THIS MORNING. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED IF TSTMS SHOW SIGNS OF SUSTAINED ORGANIZATION. ..RACY.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 34000429 35250348 37050178 37710056 37339999 36779957 34360057 33640284 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 13:52:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 08:52:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506121404.j5CE48EL005489@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121403 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121403 TXZ000-OKZ000-121500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0903 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/N TX INTO SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121403Z - 121500Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY AS THEY BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED LATER THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 1350Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF INTENSIFYING STORMS BETWEEN ABI AND MWL NWD TO S OF SPS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM NRN MEXICO...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE. 12Z FWD SOUNDING WOULD INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OBSERVED CURRENTLY ON DYESS AFB VWP IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE W. THEREFORE...EXPECT ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL AND INHERENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS N TX INTO SRN OK AS BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMS AND THESE STORMS BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED. SHOULD ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 33250008 34509931 34329758 33499728 32539800 32049848 32009936 32450004 32820021 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 14:58:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 09:58:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506121509.j5CF9dTV001620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121509 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121508 OKZ000-TXZ000-121615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX PNHDL INTO NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121508Z - 121615Z POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS MAY TEND TO INCREASE FROM THE FAR ERN TX PNHDL INTO NWRN OK LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. A COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION EXISTS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TX PNHDL/WRN TX INTO WRN OK. ELEVATED TSTMS WHICH DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY OVER THE TX PNHDL APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING A COLD POOL WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE LINEAR FROM OCHILTREE SWD INTO DONLEY COUNTIES OF THE ERN TX PNHDL. WHILE IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX PNHDL INTO NWRN OK LIKELY REMAINS SOMEWHAT STABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS W-CNTRL/SWRN AND CNTRL OK INDICATE A NWWD SURGE IN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS WITH AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM N OF CDS TO N OF HBR TO NEAR PNC. AS ONGOING LINE OF STORMS ENCOUNTERS NWRN EDGE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN INTO N-CNTRL OK. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... 35180057 35910049 36579938 36739792 36569721 35989723 35509805 35239885 34790003 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 16:24:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 11:24:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506121636.j5CGa90i004194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121635 OKZ000-TXZ000-121800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PNHDL/TX S PLAINS/LOW ROLLING PLAINS/ NRN PERMIAN BASIN NEWD INTO SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121635Z - 121800Z SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO ACT ON UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PER OBSERVED DEEPENING CONVECTION FROM ARMSTRONG COUNTY SSWWD TO HALE COUNTY. 15Z REESE AFB SOUNDING INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP MOIST LAYER BENEATH A CAP IN THE 750-700 MB LAYER. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM...AIR MASS IS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. ACCOMPANYING REESE HODOGRAPH EXHIBITED VEERING/BACKING PATTERN BELOW 700 MB AND THEN PRONOUNCED BACKING ABOVE 500 MB. NONETHELESS...ENOUGH VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND SUSTAINED LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD OUT OF ERN NM SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON FROM THE ERN CAPROCK/LOW ROLLING PLAINS NEWD INTO SWRN OK AND NWRN TX. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. GIVEN MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /ESPECIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY - WARM FRONT COMPOSITE/ AND MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 33550207 34560169 35090133 35200038 35349987 35099937 34149947 32750067 32090170 32930224 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 17:15:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 12:15:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506121726.j5CHQHKr026831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121725 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121725 TNZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-INZ000-121930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN/SRN OH/CNTRL AND ERN KY/MIDDLE AND ERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121725Z - 121930Z ...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH ISOLD TORNADOES IS INCREASING AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH... SFC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS CENTERED JUST SW OF CKV PER LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS/VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ALREADY IN PLACE...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT OBSERVED ON AREA VWP DATA. SHARPLY CURVED HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO SR HELICITY VALUES ABOVE 200 M2/S2. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ATTM ACROSS CNTRL KY INTO THE SRN OH VALLEY WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS SRN IN/OH. SFC TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S...WITHIN A SEMI-TROPICAL AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN AND THEREFORE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. ..TAYLOR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN... 39408513 38658637 35808651 35038575 34918487 35318374 35778318 36168258 37308232 38488258 39338333 39438413 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 17:28:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 12:28:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506121739.j5CHdm23001052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121738 OKZ000-KSZ000-121845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1310 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN OK INTO SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121738Z - 121845Z TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL OK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN OK AND SERN KS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS OF 1724Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS FROM MAJOR INTO NOBLE COUNTIES OF N-CNTRL OK. INSPECTION OF VANCE AFB REFLECTIVITY DATA SUGGESTS THAT STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH LARGER TSTM COMPLEX CURRENTLY FROM THE NERN TX PNHDL INTO CNTRL KS. INFLUX OF A WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INTO THESE STORMS COUPLED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH CURRENT LAMONT OK PROFILER INDICATES INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE FRESH WITH A NOTABLE SEWD MOTION. SHOULD THIS BOUNDARY BECOME MORE STATIONARY AND MODIFY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ANY STORMS INTERACTING WITH THIS FEATURE WOULD POSE A HIGHER RISK OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36379784 37289748 37899681 37919579 37479532 36759523 36279573 35979620 35849665 35959766 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 17:44:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 12:44:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506121755.j5CHtpBL008295@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121754 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-121930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA/NWRN IL AND NERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121754Z - 121930Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS. NO WW IS ANTICIPATED. TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM MONROE/APPANOOSE COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL IA SWD INTO SCHUYLER COUNTY IN NERN MO WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW BOUNDARY-LAYER TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE ALONG/S OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NEAR IRK NEWD INTO SWRN WI /NEAR LNR/. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND NO WW IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40869318 41749257 42639139 42469046 41898977 40889028 39919130 39589201 39399277 39629327 40299350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 18:34:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 13:34:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506121845.j5CIjmuE029439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121843 KSZ000-COZ000-122015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121843Z - 122015Z POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY BRIEF TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO WRN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 1830Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF TSTMS FROM ADAMS/ARAPAHOE COUNTIES SSEWD INTO LINCOLN COUNTY IN ERN CO. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT EMERGING FROM THE FRONT RANGE AND WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. DIABATIC HEATING HAS ALLOWED DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER ERN CO TO BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. WHILE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS SERN CO...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY ALONG/E OF TROUGH AXIS OVER E-CNTRL INTO NERN CO. GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMBIENT VORTICITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38160393 39430450 40410476 40770412 40880323 40590268 40060217 39400193 38570192 37820224 37500264 37500306 37500328 37580366 37810382 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 19:51:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 14:51:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122003.j5CK3GcQ031713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122002 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-122100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1313 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL/SWRN MO INTO NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122002Z - 122100Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP E/SE OF WW 465 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 1947Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS FROM LYON AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES IN E-CNTRL/SERN KS SWWD INTO OSAGE...KAY AND NOBLE COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL OK. SERN KS STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG/ CURRENTLY EXIST OVER ERN OK INTO FAR SERN KS...TO THE S OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR EMP ESEWD INTO W-CNTRL MO APPROXIMATELY 40S SZL. VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NWRN QUARTER OF MO IS COMPARABLY MORE STABLE...THOUGH CUMULUS FIELD IS INCREASING IN A NARROW N-S AXIS FROM SW OF OJC TO E OF FNB. EXTRAPOLATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE MOVEMENT SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP E/SE OF WW 465 PRIOR TO 21Z. APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED AND ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE FROM AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SWD ACROSS FAR SWRN MO INTO NERN OK WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA... 38809504 39009486 39029408 38589333 37779334 36759376 36069463 35649566 35689637 36039647 36539577 37009502 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 20:19:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 15:19:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122031.j5CKVBpu011180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122029 OKZ000-TXZ000-122200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS INTO NWRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 464... VALID 122029Z - 122200Z THROUGH 22-23Z...APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM THE ERN S PLAINS OF TX INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS ALONG AND W OF U.S. 83. AS OF 2025Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE FROM BRISCOE SWD THROUGH CROSBY COUNTIES IN W TX WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 3000 J/KG. DESPITE A PERSISTENT VEERING TO BACKING WIND PATTERN BELOW 2 KM AGL ON THE JAYTON PROFILER...FLOW IN THE 4-7 KM AGL LAYER HAS STEADILY INCREASED WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE. FARTHER TO THE N...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN AND W-CNTRL OK WHICH IN TURN IS REINFORCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING SWD THROUGH I-40 CORRIDOR OF WRN OK/ERN TX PNHDL. THROUGH 22-23Z...APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE FROM E OF LBB INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WELL REMOVED FROM MCS COLD POOL. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 35150173 36369815 33869820 32650175 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 20:38:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 15:38:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122049.j5CKndQ9020161@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122047 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO/SW KS/NRN TX PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122047Z - 122215Z THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LAMAR TO NORTH OF DALHART WHICH HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND PROFILES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THIS REGION...SO THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE STORM MODES. BUBBLE HIGH OVER SW KS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD POOL IS STABILIZING THE REGION. HOWEVER STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING TROUGH COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG/SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE CO. MAIN THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO GIVEN FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SMALL AREA AFFECTED...AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS TO THE EAST. ..TAYLOR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 35240202 36130295 38280298 38280110 36900061 35630042 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 22:31:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 17:31:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122242.j5CMgwX1028400@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122241 OKZ000-TXZ000-130045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OK...NW/N CNTRL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 464...465... VALID 122241Z - 130045Z CONTINUE WWS. ADDITIONAL WWS MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF 464 AND 465 WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SURGE INTO THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FRONT IS STALLING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 44...JUST AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW SHIFTING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WITH 30 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEXT FEW HOURS...EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL. AS HEAVY RAIN CORE GROWS...INCREASING EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT DEEPENING EASTWARD SURGING COLD POOL ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. WAVE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST AHEAD OF EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE BEST FOCUS/SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. OTHER INTENSE STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG DRY LINE...JUST AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF LUBBOCK INTO THE CHILDRESS AREA. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT LIKELY WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH DAMAGING WINDS INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...POSSIBLY MERGING WITH OKLAHOMA STORM CLUSTER...FORMING MORE EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE BY 02-03Z. ..KERR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32480095 33210094 33950067 34270019 34669953 35099874 35789806 35979772 36079685 35939614 35539603 34939655 34639697 33839810 33259841 33189889 32249956 31950026 32140078 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 22:59:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 17:59:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122310.j5CNAtLg005553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122309 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-130045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 466... VALID 122309Z - 130045Z LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND PROFILER DATA INDICATE MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM JUST SW OF CVS NWWD TO NEAR COS WITH ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE MOVING OVER THE CNTRL CO MTNS. INITIALLY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED ACROSS SE CO IN ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT LATEST RADAR SHOW CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO A LINE IN SW KS. CHARACTER OF CLOUDS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRONG INHIBITION TO SFC BASED PARCELS EAST OF THE ONGOING LINE OF STORMS. WHILE STORMS MAY BE MAINTAINED INTO PORTIONS OF WCNTRL KS VIS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO BECOME ELEVATED. REGARDING AREAS IN ERN CO WITHIN WW 466...SVR THREAT IS DIMINISHING. STORMS HAVE ALMOST EXITED NE CO...AND THE STORMS DEVELOPING FROM ITR TO LAA ARE FORMING IN THE COOLER OUTFLOW AIR. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT...AND IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO CANCEL WW 466 PRIOR TO 02Z. ..TAYLOR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...PUB... 37150219 38150323 39560258 39320042 38629952 37349950 36999946 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 23:03:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 18:03:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122314.j5CNESX9006809@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122313 MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/WRN MO AND SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467... VALID 122313Z - 130115Z CONTINUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467. DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...ONGOING SQUALL LINE IS OCCURRING ON LEADING EDGE OF 30 KT MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO FORWARD PROPAGATION OF SQUALL LINE...AND ENHANCING SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND PEAK WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE WITH LINE THROUGH AT LEAST 01-02Z...AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE SPRINGFIELD/COLUMBIA/KIRKSVILLE MO AREAS...AND AREAS OF IOWA SOUTH OF DES MOINES. DUE TO SOMEWHAT MARGINAL NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT...AND LIKELIHOOD OF WEAKENING TRENDS AFTER 02-03Z...NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA. TRENDS WITH EVOLVING SQUALL LINE OVER OKLAHOMA/TEXAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATER THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA... 37299481 38439422 39749411 40259451 41299330 40439164 39079161 37899194 37219274 36799324 36379382 36159533 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 23:03:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 18:03:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122314.j5CNEY9k006838@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122309 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-130045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 466... VALID 122309Z - 130045Z LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND PROFILER DATA INDICATE MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM JUST SW OF CVS NWWD TO NEAR COS WITH ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE MOVING OVER THE CNTRL CO MTNS. INITIALLY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED ACROSS SE CO IN ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT LATEST RADAR SHOW CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO A LINE IN SW KS. CHARACTER OF CLOUDS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRONG INHIBITION TO SFC BASED PARCELS EAST OF THE ONGOING LINE OF STORMS. WHILE STORMS MAY BE MAINTAINED INTO PORTIONS OF WCNTRL KS VIS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO BECOME ELEVATED. REGARDING AREAS IN ERN CO WITHIN WW 466...SVR THREAT IS DIMINISHING. STORMS HAVE ALMOST EXITED NE CO...AND THE STORMS DEVELOPING FROM ITR TO LAA ARE FORMING IN THE COOLER OUTFLOW AIR. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT...AND IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO CANCEL WW 466 PRIOR TO 02Z. ..TAYLOR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...PUB... 37150219 38150323 39560258 39320042 38629952 37349950 36999946  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 23:06:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 18:06:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122317.j5CNHeuJ007466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122313 MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/WRN MO AND SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467... VALID 122313Z - 130115Z CONTINUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467. DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...ONGOING SQUALL LINE IS OCCURRING ON LEADING EDGE OF 30 KT MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO FORWARD PROPAGATION OF SQUALL LINE...AND ENHANCING SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND PEAK WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE WITH LINE THROUGH AT LEAST 01-02Z...AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE SPRINGFIELD/COLUMBIA/KIRKSVILLE MO AREAS...AND AREAS OF IOWA SOUTH OF DES MOINES. DUE TO SOMEWHAT MARGINAL NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT...AND LIKELIHOOD OF WEAKENING TRENDS AFTER 02-03Z...NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA. TRENDS WITH EVOLVING SQUALL LINE OVER OKLAHOMA/TEXAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATER THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA... 37299481 38439422 39749411 40259451 41299330 40439164 39079161 37899194 37219274 36799324 36379382 36159533  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 23:48:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 18:48:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506122359.j5CNxIhu021883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122358 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122358 KYZ000-INZ000-130130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KY/SRN IN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 468... VALID 122358Z - 130130Z ...THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER AND EAST OF LOUISVILLE. MAIN THREAT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE ACROSS SRN IN... MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW NORTH OF THE OH RIVER. SFC OBS INDICATE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST AT BMG WITH HIGHEST SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS CNTRL IND/SW OH. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. AIRMASS WILL BE STABILIZING NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR STILL REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES...AND LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY FROM INDIANAPOLIS SHOWS SEVERAL STRONG LINES OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL ROTATION SIGNATURES. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED EARLIER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAIN THREAT CONTINUES MAINLY EAST OF A BMG/SDF LINE. ..TAYLOR.. 06/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND... 39828637 38998618 37918506 38148449 39638506 40168531 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 01:06:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 20:06:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506130117.j5D1HMoQ015697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130116 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130116 OKZ000-130315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1320 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OKLAHOMA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 464...469... VALID 130116Z - 130315Z CONTINUE WWS TIL RESPECTIVE EXPIRATIONS. ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ACROSS/WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA...MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EAST OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS JUST NOW PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND IS ONLY PROGGED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY 06Z. SLOWLY VEERING 30+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR ALONG STALLING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN/CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF FRONT RELATIVE TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND PRODUCING SQUALL LINE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE SOUTH/EAST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA...BUT HEAVY RAIN/HAIL MAY BECOME PRIMARY THREAT SHORTLY. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34939947 35759945 36149826 36099755 36969665 36619472 35599456 34499628 34329756 34329824 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 02:22:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 21:22:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506130233.j5D2Xc5l010627@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130232 TXZ000-130300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 470... VALID 130232Z - 130300Z WW LIKELY WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME ISOLATED AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS AWAY FROM DRY LINE. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST/NORTH OF ABILENE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS... WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB... 33060039 33380001 33189923 32579914 32530010 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 04:19:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 23:19:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506130430.j5D4Uc27020181@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130429 KSZ000-OKZ000-130630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130429Z - 130630Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. STRONG JET CONTINUES TO DIG INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER REGION...WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREADING EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PERSISTENT VIGOROUS CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING EAST OF DODGE CITY TOWARD THE WICHITA AREA APPEARS TO BE ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS COOLING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO COOLING/ STABILIZATION OF SUPPORTING INFLOW SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND IS ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION IN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT...AND MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF NEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. EARLY EVENING CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS. IN ITS WAKE...LATEST MODELS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW OF RICHER MOISTURE INTO VICINITY OF SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME...BUT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS... ACROSS THE WICHITA/EMPORIA/CHANUTE AREAS. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37250020 38249875 38349784 38979619 38839526 37539490 36719612 36899732 37009931 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 04:22:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 23:22:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506130433.j5D4Xxct021248@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130433 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130433 KSZ000-OKZ000-130630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130433Z - 130630Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. STRONG JET CONTINUES TO DIG INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER REGION...WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREADING EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PERSISTENT VIGOROUS CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING EAST OF DODGE CITY TOWARD THE WICHITA AREA APPEARS TO BE ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS COOLING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO COOLING/ STABILIZATION OF SUPPORTING INFLOW SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND IS ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION IN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT...AND MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF NEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. EARLY EVENING CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS. IN ITS WAKE...LATEST MODELS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW OF RICHER MOISTURE INTO VICINITY OF SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME...BUT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS... ACROSS THE WICHITA/EMPORIA/CHANUTE AREAS. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37250020 38249875 38349784 38979619 38839526 37539490 36719612 36899732 37009931 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 04:26:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 23:26:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506130437.j5D4bMSk021883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130429 KSZ000-OKZ000-130630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130429Z - 130630Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. STRONG JET CONTINUES TO DIG INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER REGION...WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREADING EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PERSISTENT VIGOROUS CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING EAST OF DODGE CITY TOWARD THE WICHITA AREA APPEARS TO BE ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS COOLING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO COOLING/ STABILIZATION OF SUPPORTING INFLOW SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND IS ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION IN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT...AND MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF NEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. EARLY EVENING CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS. IN ITS WAKE...LATEST MODELS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW OF RICHER MOISTURE INTO VICINITY OF SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME...BUT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS... ACROSS THE WICHITA/EMPORIA/CHANUTE AREAS. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37250020 38249875 38349784 38979619 38839526 37539490 36719612 36899732 37009931  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 04:28:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 23:28:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506130439.j5D4dEJC023222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130433 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130433 KSZ000-OKZ000-130630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130433Z - 130630Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. STRONG JET CONTINUES TO DIG INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER REGION...WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREADING EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PERSISTENT VIGOROUS CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING EAST OF DODGE CITY TOWARD THE WICHITA AREA APPEARS TO BE ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS COOLING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO COOLING/ STABILIZATION OF SUPPORTING INFLOW SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND IS ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION IN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT...AND MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF NEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. EARLY EVENING CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS. IN ITS WAKE...LATEST MODELS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW OF RICHER MOISTURE INTO VICINITY OF SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME...BUT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS... ACROSS THE WICHITA/EMPORIA/CHANUTE AREAS. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37250020 38249875 38349784 38979619 38839526 37539490 36719612 36899732 37009931  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 06:42:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 01:42:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506130653.j5D6rSCk003400@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130652 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130652 MOZ000-130815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1323 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL-SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130652Z - 130815Z BOW ECHO IS MOVING ENEWD THROUGH SWRN MO AT 40 KTS AND HAS PRODUCED 80 MPH WINDS VCNTY KSGF SINCE 0630Z. APEX OF THIS BOW APPEARS TO BE LINKED UP WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOVED SWD TO AROUND KVIH-KSGF. THIS MAY CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL NEWD INTO SCNTRL MO THROUGH 09Z. BUT...THERMODYNAMIC DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THAT BUOYANCY DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE MS RVR AND THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT. IF STORMS DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING...A WW MIGHT BE REQUIRED. ATTM...THOUGH...ONE IS NOT EXPECTED. ..RACY.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 36539302 38119306 38569078 37189051 36599117 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 09:04:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 04:04:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506130915.j5D9Fbvo004572@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130913 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130913 ILZ000-WIZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-131115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1324 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0413 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SERN MN...SRN WI...MUCH OF IL AND NERN/ECNTRL MO CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 130913Z - 131115Z THE 13Z DAY ONE OUTLOOK UPDATE /WHICH WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11Z WITH ATTENDANT PWO/ WILL INCLUDE A MODERATE RISK BASED ON AFTERNOON TORNADO/EVENING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IA...SERN MN...SRN WI...MUCH OF IL AND NERN/ECNTRL MO. TORNADO RISKS: SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN THE 65-70F DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY TODAY. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF BUOYANCY AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY. BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...LOW LCL/S AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. DAMAGING WIND RISKS: A SECONDARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS NERN/ECNTRL MO INTO IL DURING THE EVENING. H5 WIND MAX AOA 65 KTS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID MO VLY UPPER LOW. AS A RESULT...TSTM CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP SWWD FROM THE AFTERNOON UPPER MS VLY CONVECTION IS APT TO DEVELOP INTO BOW ECHOES AND RAPIDLY MOVE ENEWD ACROSS MUCH OF IL WITH POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS AOA 65 KTS. ..RACY.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX... 43789324 44309222 44078998 43398906 41308798 39938761 38938809 38558942 38489076 40049257 40789307 42099328 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 15:51:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 10:51:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506131602.j5DG2Dh0028304@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131601 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131601 WIZ000-131800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1325 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131601Z - 131800Z DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS WI COULD HAVE A HAIL AND/OR MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS IN SRN AND CNTRL WI WHICH IS LOCALLY ENHANCING INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAPPING INVERSION NEARLY GONE ACROSS SRN AND CNTR WI. IN ADDITION...A VORTICITY LOBE IS ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER ERN IA AND NRN IL. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO WI...LIFT WILL INCREASE AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. THE PROFILER IN SW WI CURRENTLY SHOWS 25 KT AT 6 KM AND THIS MAY INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. HAIL AND A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43688754 42858785 42618868 42758951 43469052 44359156 45089184 45719050 45338911 44588795 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 16:23:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 11:23:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506131634.j5DGYIIt017726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131633 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131633 MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-131830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1326 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD/NRN NEB/SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131633Z - 131830Z HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS DEVELOP ACROSS SERN SD AND NRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW IN NRN NEB WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ECNTRL NEB. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS SERN SD INTO SW MN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IS HELPING NEW SFC-BASED CELLS TO INITIATE IN SERN SD. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING BENEATH AN UPPER-LOW WITH A DRY SLOT PUNCHING NWWD INTO SE SD AROUND THE UPPER-LOW. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY SLOT WITH 500 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -16 TO -18C. THIS IS CREATING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 42810033 43549995 44569811 44799633 44529413 43639402 43619591 43349753 42449917 42330012 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 17:31:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 12:31:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506131742.j5DHgN5G030884@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131741 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-131945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1327 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN AND ERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131741Z - 131945Z AS STORMS INITIATE AND DEVELOP ACROSS SE MO...ERN AND SRN IL...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT MAY EXPAND EWD INTO WRN KY AND FAR WRN IND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS SRN AND ERN IL WHERE 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SERN MO EXTENDING NWD INTO NERN IL. STORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN SE MO AND FROM ROCKFORD IL EXTENDING SSEWD TO NEAR JOLIET. ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR ERN IL AND SE MO...THE CELLS ARE INITIATING IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WITH HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39658749 37828802 36718893 36819025 37409029 39148973 41098973 41888933 42118882 41928787 41028752 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 20:39:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 15:39:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506132051.j5DKpEtf027665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132049 INZ000-ILZ000-132215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1331 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132049Z - 132215Z ...WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY... STRONG/SVR TSTMS FROM COU TO UIN ARE MOVING INTO WCNTRL IL. LACK OF CUMULUS NOTED OVER ECNTRL IL SUGGESTS THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT IS MINIMAL ATTM...BUT AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 2000 J PER KG. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...AND CELLS MOVING OUT OF MO WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED OR EVEN STRENGTHEN. SMALL WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED NORTH OF SEVERE WATCH 472...WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. ..TAYLOR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 40508738 39549062 39879137 40839104 40939034 41268921 41278804 41008752 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 22:05:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 17:05:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506132216.j5DMGXJG017691@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132215 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-140015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO INTO CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...476... VALID 132215Z - 140015Z CONTINUE WWS. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED FROM THE CHICAGO AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...PERHAPS PARTS OF WESTERN INDIANA...WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA. THIS IS WHERE STEEPEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT... ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW EAST OF MID MISSOURI VALLEY CLOSED LOW...IS FORCING MOIST PARCELS TO LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. INHIBITION APPEARS STRONGER ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44/64...WITH STRONGER FORCING LIKELY TO SHIFT ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS MO/SPRINFIELD IL AREAS SHORTLY...INTO DECATUR/MATTOON/ CHAMPAIGN VICINITIES BY 01-03Z. EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD FORM A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT SURGES INTO MOIST/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY WITH STRONGER STORMS IN NEAR TERM...AND POTENTIAL FOR BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND EVENT SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE NORTHEAST OF ST. LOUIS INTO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 39059092 39909054 40499004 40838818 40538734 39708695 38908741 38408833 38438945 38409029 38419092 38629115 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 22:30:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 17:30:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506132242.j5DMg1cq030889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132241 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-140045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1333 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132241Z - 140045Z CONTINUE TORNADO WW 473 AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW 477. BAND OF FORCING ON SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY APPEARS FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 4000 J/KG. MODERATE CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES...NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO FAVOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS/SURGING OUTFLOWS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH 00-02Z. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 33500005 34509820 35369686 36209533 36899403 36469349 35849393 34639520 33319794 32939934 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 22:31:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 17:31:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506132242.j5DMgNN6031015@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132215 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-140015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO INTO CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...476... VALID 132215Z - 140015Z CONTINUE WWS. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED FROM THE CHICAGO AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...PERHAPS PARTS OF WESTERN INDIANA...WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA. THIS IS WHERE STEEPEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT... ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW EAST OF MID MISSOURI VALLEY CLOSED LOW...IS FORCING MOIST PARCELS TO LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. INHIBITION APPEARS STRONGER ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44/64...WITH STRONGER FORCING LIKELY TO SHIFT ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS MO/SPRINFIELD IL AREAS SHORTLY...INTO DECATUR/MATTOON/ CHAMPAIGN VICINITIES BY 01-03Z. EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD FORM A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT SURGES INTO MOIST/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY WITH STRONGER STORMS IN NEAR TERM...AND POTENTIAL FOR BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND EVENT SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE NORTHEAST OF ST. LOUIS INTO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 39059092 39909054 40499004 40838818 40538734 39708695 38908741 38408833 38438945 38409029 38419092 38629115  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 22:33:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 17:33:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506132244.j5DMiPOT032295@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132242 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-140015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1334 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SRN INTO ECNTRL MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 471... VALID 132242Z - 140015Z ...TORNADO WATCH 471 CONTINUES AND AREA EAST OF WATCH ACROSS SRN MN IS BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AND ADDITIONAL WW... DESPITE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN AN AIRMASS THAT IS ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...UPPER LOW IS STILL UPSTREAM...AND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED. RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH 00Z...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO AROUND 1800 J/KG. BOUNDARY LAYER IS MODESTLY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND LCL HEIGHTS ARE RATHER HIGH. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT...AND SHOULD SFC WINDS BECOME BACKED...AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST. ..TAYLOR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 43229677 44449784 46079669 46079430 45629294 44869270 44159287 43629378 43399540 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 22:51:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 17:51:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506132303.j5DN322b007948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132241 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-140045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1333 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132241Z - 140045Z CONTINUE TORNADO WW 473 AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW 477. BAND OF FORCING ON SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY APPEARS FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 4000 J/KG. MODERATE CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES...NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO FAVOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS/SURGING OUTFLOWS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH 00-02Z. ..KERR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 33500005 34509820 35369686 36209533 36899403 36469349 35849393 34639520 33319794 32939934  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 22:52:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 17:52:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506132304.j5DN49oS008901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132242 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-140015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1334 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SRN INTO ECNTRL MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 471... VALID 132242Z - 140015Z ...TORNADO WATCH 471 CONTINUES AND AREA EAST OF WATCH ACROSS SRN MN IS BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AND ADDITIONAL WW... DESPITE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN AN AIRMASS THAT IS ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...UPPER LOW IS STILL UPSTREAM...AND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED. RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH 00Z...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO AROUND 1800 J/KG. BOUNDARY LAYER IS MODESTLY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND LCL HEIGHTS ARE RATHER HIGH. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT...AND SHOULD SFC WINDS BECOME BACKED...AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST. ..TAYLOR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 43229677 44449784 46079669 46079430 45629294 44869270 44159287 43629378 43399540  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 23:11:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 18:11:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506132322.j5DNMh7O016892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132321 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-140045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1335 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS/NW MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 475... VALID 132321Z - 140045Z ...SEVERE THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHING AND WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS NRN MO HAS NOT DEVELOPED INTO DEEPER CONVECTION. IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN NRN SECTIONS OF WW. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 80 KT JET AT AROUND 300 MB EXTENDING FROM DES MOINES TO KANSAS CITY. THIS PLACES MUCH OF AREA SOUTH OF THE MAIN JET AXIS. SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER ERN NEB/NW IA AND MOVING NORTHEAST...THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY FROM NW MO. IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP...SO PORTIONS OF WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..TAYLOR.. 06/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... 39959272 39619502 40479501 40599237 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 00:09:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 19:09:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506140020.j5E0KDnA010500@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140018 INZ000-ILZ000-140215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL INTO NR/CNTRL INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476...479... VALID 140018Z - 140215Z CONTINUE WWS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL JET IS STILL NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 30 KT IN ANTICYCLONIC ARC ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND THREAT NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CHAMPAIGN/MATTOON AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... POSSIBLY THROUGH THE LAFAYETTE IND AREA AS EARLY AS 02-03Z. ..KERR.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... 40598908 40668894 41158796 41578634 41278532 40098553 39568686 39218804 38778891 38418993 39418923 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 00:25:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 19:25:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506140036.j5E0aSYk016853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140035 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-140230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SRN INTO E CNTRL MO...NW AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 473... VALID 140035Z - 140230Z DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS IN WAKE OF SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA. THIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND IS FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY BAND OF FORCING ON SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF MID MISSOURI VALLEY CLOSED LOW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY 03Z...BUT WILL PERSIST IN SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING BAND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. AFTER 04Z...STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT. ..KERR.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 35749574 36549489 37249391 38009225 38319137 37989061 37389025 36669057 36159207 35899295 34979399 34649506 35189596 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 00:33:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 19:33:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506140044.j5E0iUQm020585@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140042 IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-140215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1338 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 474... VALID 140042Z - 140215Z MAIN AREA OF STORMS NOW EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL IA FROM NEAR MCW TO DSM TO WEST OF LWD. IT APPEARS MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE FROM HAIL AND STRONG WINDS GIVEN STORM STRUCTURES OBSERVED FROM DES MOINES RADAR. CLARION IA IN WRIGHT CO RECENTLY GUSTED TO 41 KT...AND THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE. WIND DATA FROM THE SLATER IA PROFILER AND VWP DATA FROM DES MOINES IN ADDITION TO THE 00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM OMAHA AND DAVENPORT ALL INDICATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH VEERING WINDS. MAIN CONCERN NOW WILL BE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT/BOW ECHO POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY ACROSS NERN IA. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...AND MCS VECTORS WOULD SHIFT SYSTEM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST EVENTUALLY AFFECTING SW INTO CNTRL WI. ANOTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS FOR SRN IA...ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS MOVING NORTH OUT OF MO. STORM MODE IS SUPERCELLULAR...WHICH CARRIES A BIGGER RISK OF LARGE HAIL OR EVEN ISOLD TORNADOES. THESE CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE BUT AS LONG AS THEY REMAIN DISCRETE...THEY WILL POSE A TORNADO THREAT. ..TAYLOR.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX... 40569323 40649450 41519408 43539437 43609228 43299167 42849144 41779178 40919196 40639223 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 00:49:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 19:49:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506140101.j5E116PV026775@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140058 TXZ000-OKZ000-140300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL OK INTO NORTHERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... VALID 140058Z - 140300Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW TIL EXPIRATION. NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WW THIS EVENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ENHANCED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH OF SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW. COUPLED WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING/INCREASING INHIBITION FOR PARCELS BASED IN BOUNDARY LAYER...AND BAND OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH LIFTING AWAY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING BY 02-03Z. STORMS MAY BE SLOWEST TO DIMINISH NEAR/SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS...WHERE THERMAL SURFACE LOW IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ..KERR.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... 34009896 34349792 34569671 34829621 35259564 34669506 33909527 33739667 33439798 33259903 33799931  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 01:38:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 20:38:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506140149.j5E1ndus015839@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140148 WIZ000-MNZ000-140315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1340 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0848 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 478... VALID 140148Z - 140315Z THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE ERN/NRN PORTIONS OF WW 478 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN WI AND THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR EITHER A NEW WW OR REPLACEMENT WW THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS PARTS OF ERN MN. RECENT MPX SOUNDING INDICATES THAT LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION OVER ECENTRAL/SERN MN. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF SWRN/SCENTRAL MN AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED IN THE NEXT STATUS REPORT. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY END BY 02-03Z OVER WCENTRAL/CENTRAL MN AS COLD OUTFLOW AIR WILL UNDERCUT CONVECTION THAT FLARED UP OVER THE REGION SINCE 00Z. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT AS CONVECTION OVER SERN/ECENTRAL MN CONTINUES TO BECOME ORGANIZED IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A MARGINAL SVR HAIL THREAT AS IT MOVES INTO WCENTRAL/NWRN WI IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO INSTABILITY AXIS. THUS A NEW WW OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 03Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43639262 43689129 44459073 45469105 46039193 46449272 46249354 46079471 45929536 45539594 45029586 44949579 45299500 45089403 43649340 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 02:54:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 21:54:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506140305.j5E35qEQ016692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140304 ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-140400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1341 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW AR INTO SRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 473... VALID 140304Z - 140400Z ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MAY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 04Z. LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE PERSISTS NEAR INTERSTATE 44 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND HAS BEEN A FOCUS FOR NEWER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS BAND OF STRONG FORCING ON SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY LIFTS ACROSS THE OZARKS. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. WITH LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING WARM/MOIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/ SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...UNAFFECTED BY PRIOR CONVECTION...ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS EVOLVING EAST OF SPRINGFIELD MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. GIVEN MODERATE FLOW FIELDS...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AS IT SPREADS NEAR/NORTH OF WEST PLAINS INTO THE FARMINGTON/POPLAR BLUFF AREAS BY 06Z. ..KERR.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36529267 37029241 37559168 37999135 37939009 38088897 36758979 36369071 36169180 36169255 36259297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 03:14:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 22:14:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506140325.j5E3PIcI025607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140324 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-140530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1342 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...SRN MI...NW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479... VALID 140324Z - 140530Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...AND WW LIKELY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 04Z. STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ...DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE BY 06-09Z. DESTABILIZATION LIKELY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD POOL IS REDUCING CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. COUPLED WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...FURTHER SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME LIMITED TO ISOLATED LARGE...PERHAPS VERY LOCALIZED/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...ILX... 39828657 40548636 41178650 41708595 41668459 41168385 40508359 39898374 39378438 39158646 38648774 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 03:18:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 22:18:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506140330.j5E3U8Xs027363@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140329 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-140430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1343 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND SRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 474... VALID 140329Z - 140430Z WW 474 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT HOUR OVER ERN IA /WW 474/ AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO STABILIZE. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SVR HAIL MAY PERSIST BEYOND WW EXPIRATION TIME AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES INTO FAR ERN IA AND NEW DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER SWRN WI AND NWRN IL ALONG AXIS OF A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASING OVER THE REGION SOUTH OF UPPER LOW /PER 00Z OMA AND DVN SOUNDINGS/...LAPSE RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN AND ONLY MARGINAL HAIL IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. THUS WW 474 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43618863 43289079 42369186 41649242 41269258 40979246 40979081 41938898 42728780 43548780 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 14:24:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 09:24:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506141435.j5EEZGjf015386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141434 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141434 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-141600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1344 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0934 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OH AND SERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 141434Z - 141600Z THE UPCOMING DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AT 1630Z WILL EXTEND THE MODERATE SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA WWD AND NWD TO INCLUDE NWRN OH AND SERN LOWER MI. DESTABILIZATION INTO THIS REGION WITH DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP-LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GIVEN FORCING FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROJECTED CELL MOTIONS NEWD AT 35-45KT. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41538482 41948478 42558462 43168419 43388364 43278289 42918264 42348280 41568300 40958318 40668334 40348343 40308411 40368479 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 14:32:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 09:32:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506141443.j5EEhHuU021056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141442 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141442 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-141645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1345 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0942 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IND...OH AND FAR NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141442Z - 141645Z A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL IND. THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER MN WITH STRONG ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT MOVES ACROSS WRN IND LATE THIS MORNING...A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS IND INTO WRN OH. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM WRN KY INTO IND WHERE 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY WHICH IS CREATING A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. OTHERWISE...A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE PRESENT WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 38588516 38598598 38978664 39598692 40758657 41528497 41728356 41428294 40658251 39548303 38908387 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 16:47:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 11:47:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506141658.j5EGwvOh031219@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141658 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-141900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1346 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...KY/MIDDLE TN/NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141658Z - 141900Z AS STORMS INITIATE AND EXPAND OVER KY AND TN THIS AFTERNOON...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NE MS TO WRN KY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAKENED CAP AND INCREASING ASCENT DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IS HELPING STORMS TO INITIATE ACROSS WRN KY. AS ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD ACROSS WRN TN AND POSSIBLY INTO NRN MS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES...HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MORE PERSISTENT CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 35008980 35978947 38558580 38598418 37878373 36498503 34468842 34708945 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 18:24:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 13:24:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506141835.j5EIZwqI032216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141834 MIZ000-WIZ000-142030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1347 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MI...ERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141834Z - 142030Z HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS ERN WI AND UPPER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LOW ACROSS ERN MN WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING NWD INTO UPPER MI. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AS ASCENT INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. SFC TEMPS IN THE 70S F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ARE RESULTING IN SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. 500 MB TEMPS BELOW -10C AND MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX... 45948678 45478683 43728760 43328843 43548937 44118986 46128928 46408860 46318737 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 19:38:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 14:38:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506141949.j5EJnh35017433@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141948 TXZ000-NMZ000-142145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1348 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141948Z - 142145Z ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED ACROSS SWRN TX AND PERHAPS FAR SERN NM THROUGH REMAINDER OF DAYLIGHT HOURS. A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ADDED TO THE 20Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER OVERALL RISK IS LIKELY TOO MARGINAL FOR WATCH ISSUANCE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM MORNING MCS OVER NWRN TX HAS CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE SWWD. AT 1930Z...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM 15W HOB TO 30S MAF TO 20S SJT. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SWRN TX HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DURING PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ...FOCUSED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW...IS PROCESSING MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK /LESS THAN 20KT/ AND CONTINUED SWWD PROPAGATION OF BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS...LIMITING CELL LONGEVITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD MIGRATE SWWD TO ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR AROUND 2130Z. ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30169905 29769992 30220258 31280388 32660400 32650311 31730226 31330127 31099965 30599923 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 19:59:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 14:59:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506142010.j5EKAiF8031683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142009 PAZ000-MDZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-142145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1349 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA...ERN OH...WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 480... VALID 142009Z - 142145Z LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN A LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES EWD INTO WRN PA AND WV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED EAST OF WW 480 WITHIN THE HOUR. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WHICH RUNS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EXTENDING FROM KY TO OH. AT MID-LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH PRESENT OVER WRN WI WITH A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT MOVING EWD ACROSS OH AND KY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE LINE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PA AND WV. THE EXIT REGION OF A 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...PROVIDING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... 37598191 38238299 39278236 40988150 41868066 42147972 41827866 41447841 40847836 38138029 37668087 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 22:02:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 17:02:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506142213.j5EMDqsr017665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142212 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-142345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1350 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483... VALID 142212Z - 142345Z SQUALL LINE LIKELY TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW...NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED FARTHER EAST. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE...FROM THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO INITIATION OF LINE...IS NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN LOSS OF UPPER SUPPORT...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF LINE...AND COMMENCEMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING....SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE CREST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH ALONG COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION AS IT ADVANCES DOWN THE LEE SLOPES DURING THE 15/00-02Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX... 36168504 36918454 37138402 37578302 38218232 38648195 39038083 39798046 40488028 41307962 42077922 42777828 42877694 41457694 40137756 38777851 37787949 37138017 36208194 36068304 35758385 35898481 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 22:29:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 17:29:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506142240.j5EMev8f030851@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142240 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-150015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1351 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY AND TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482... VALID 142240Z - 150015Z NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT 00Z...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01-02Z. BULK OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS NOW SHIFTING EAST OF WW AREA INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE/CENTRAL KENTUCKY...IN WAKE OF SQUALL LINE...AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IS WEAK...AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE IN INSTABILITY AXIS NEXT FEW HOURS...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE PIVOTS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE FORCING STRONGEST...ACROSS KENTUCKY ALONG/EAST OF A LOUISVILLE/BOWLING GREEN LINE...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE EXCEEDS 2000 J/KG. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..KERR.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH... 36808720 37478670 38138633 38148536 37598525 36868556 36188659 35648746 35598777 35978811 36338765 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 23:31:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 18:31:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506142342.j5ENgZOx025247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142341 MTZ000-150145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1352 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND W-CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142341Z - 150145Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS WRN/W-CENTRAL MT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL EXTENT OF THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO REQUIRE WATCH ISSUANCE. MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS FAR NRN ID/NWRN MT. EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED 50-60KT 500MB JET HAS REACHED WRN MT...AND WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO WRN/W-CENTRAL MT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S AT LOWER ELEVATION SITES ACROSS SWRN MT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS LIMITED OWING TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KT ON SERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS DESPITE LOW INSTABILITY VALUES. COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL EXISTS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG VIL CORES. ALSO...35-40F SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXIST FROM THE ERN SLOPES OF THE WRN MT MOUNTAINS EWD INTO W-CENTRAL MT. EVAPORATIVELY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AS WELL AS RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS CONVECTION TRACKS ENEWD AT 40KT. ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO... 45111188 45391267 46661355 47311393 47711397 47891355 48091300 48351154 48291066 47840989 46670926 45810926 45520964 45301097 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 16:03:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 11:03:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506151614.j5FGEPOr000451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151613 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151613 OKZ000-151815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1353 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151613Z - 151815Z A HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN OK. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL OK WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F. SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING JUST UPSTREAM OF THE MOIST AXIS ALONG A BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHICH SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL OK BY MIDDAY SHOW SBCAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 06/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 34599653 34099664 34009747 34299830 34869866 35459882 35999869 36059832 36099749 35399666 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 18:41:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 13:41:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506151852.j5FIq7Yn004596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151851 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-152045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1354 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM/SE CO/NW TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151851Z - 152045Z DEVELOPING STORMS OVER NE NM AND SE CO WILL LIKELY HAVE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THE STORMS APPROACH WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NNWWD FROM WRN OK ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN NEB. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F ALONG THIS AXIS WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS ERN CO AND KS SUGGESTING ENOUGH SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY ENHANCE SHEAR JUST ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 06/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35700370 36300498 37410511 38160428 38160258 37090167 35950212 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 19:40:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 14:40:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506151952.j5FJpvBL011306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151950 KSZ000-COZ000-152145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1355 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151950Z - 152145Z STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE AND MOVE ESEWD INTO WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD THROUGH WRN KS INTO WRN NEB. A FEW STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING IN ERN CO ALONG A BOUNDARY ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS KIT CARSON COUNTY. A CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SFC-BASED AS THEY MOVE ESEWD INTO NW KS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 37649984 38740217 39300254 39820187 39750002 38399844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 23:51:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 18:51:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506160002.j5G02HS3020031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160001 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-160130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1356 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 484... VALID 160001Z - 160130Z THROUGH 03-04Z...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD/SEWD FROM WRN KS INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS AND NWRN OK. ADDITIONAL WW/S MAY BECOME NECESSARY E OR SE OF WW 484 LATER THIS EVENING. CLUSTER OF TSTMS WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOL CONTINUES TO MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD ACROSS WRN KS AS OF 2343Z...WITH LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT FROM WALLACE AND WICHITA COUNTIES SWD INTO TEXAS COUNTY OK. ADDITIONAL STORMS /SEVERAL OF WHICH ARE UNDERGOING SPLITS/ HAVE ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER GOVE...TREGO AND ROOKS COUNTIES...IN CLOSE VICINITY TO NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY /MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY/ EXTENDING FROM E OF MCK SEWD THROUGH HYS AND EVENTUALLY INTO CNTRL OK. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS E OF WRN KS COLD POOL AND W OF AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. MOREOVER...LOCAL PROFILERS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY LONG HODOGRAPHS OWING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND MODEST TO STRONG HIGH-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR GOVE...TREGO AND ROOKS COUNTY STORMS TO MAINTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH TSTM CLUSTERS FARTHER TO THE W. GIVEN OBSERVED STORM SPLITS ASSOCIATED WITH TREGO AND ROOKS COUNTY STORMS...ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO W OF WW 484. AS LLJ INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...EXPECT ONGOING ACTIVITY TO MERGE INTO 1 OR MORE LARGE CLUSTERS OR MCS/S WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO SPREAD SEWD INTO NWRN OK...POSSIBLY REQUIRING AN ADDITIONAL WW. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 37070146 38250156 39250133 39640080 39989979 39829826 39209767 37879745 36849789 36439867 36229966 36470115 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 00:05:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 19:05:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506160016.j5G0GLR7025872@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160015 NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-160215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...WRN SD...SERN MT...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160015Z - 160215Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN WY...FAR WRN SD...SERN MT...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT IS FOR LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT OVERALL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TOO MARGINAL FOR WATCH ISSUANCE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM NEAR THE BIG HORN MTNS SEWD ACROSS ERN/SERN SECTIONS OF WY. ISOLATED CELLS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR NERN WY AT 2345Z. SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURES A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. UPSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...IT APPEARS FROM WV AND IR IMAGERY THAT A SRN EXTENTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN EXTENDS SSWWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL MT AND CENTRAL WY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH EWD INTO THE RIDGE AXIS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SURFACE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE NNWWD THROUGH NERN WY AND SERN MT. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS ERN WY/SERN MT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS SWRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY INTERACT WITH RICHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LATER THIS EVENING. MAINTENANCE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AIDED BY WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE OVER ERN WY AND UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM AND MARGINAL SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG...LONG-LIVED CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL. A FEW STORM CLUSTERS ORGANIZED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY ALSO CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY TRANSLATES GENERALLY ENEWD AT 20-25KT. ..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW... 45140321 44260269 43590231 42980224 42440221 41810224 41270232 41070258 41050300 41050355 41090446 41100519 42110536 42890565 43910636 44800702 45590746 46120754 46570722 46860676 47020586 46850507 46460459 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 03:04:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 22:04:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506160315.j5G3FLPf006694@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160314 OKZ000-KSZ000-160445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS INTO NWRN AND N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160314Z - 160445Z THROUGH 05Z...POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL KS/NWRN OK...POSSIBLY INTO N-CNTRL OK. CONDITIONS OVER NRN OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 03Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVY CONVECTIVE LINE FROM RICE...STAFFORD AND KIOWA COUNTIES IN CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO THE TX PNHDL NEAR AMA. NRN PORTION OF THIS MCS HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE SEWD AT AROUND 50 KTS OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR...SUGGESTING AN INCREASED LIKLIHOOD OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER RENO...PRATT AND KINGMAN COUNTIES THROUGH 04Z. FARTHER SW...PORTION OF MCS OVER NWRN OK IS JUST BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER AXIS OF LOCALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM S OF P28 TO SW OF END WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN 1500-2500 J/KG. LOCAL PROFILERS INDICATE THAT STRENGTHENING LLJ IS LIKELY ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...WHICH SUGGESTS ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED AND CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AS IT PROGRESSES EWD. MCS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL OK LATER TONIGHT. PRIMARY QUESTION IS WHETHER CIRCULATION ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM GUST FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS...GIVEN INCREASING CAP ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36439942 37259918 37759909 37979858 37939797 37349733 36829695 36339721 35939812 35999925 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 05:53:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 00:53:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506160604.j5G64M9k010791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160601 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160601 OKZ000-KSZ000-160730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1359 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...CNTRL/NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160601Z - 160730Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486 WILL BE CANCELLED EARLY AS THE LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVES OUT OF THE WW. ANOTHER WW DOWNSTREAM IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WAVY LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN KS AND NRN OK THIS EVENING. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LINE /BOWING LINE SEGMENTS/ FROM SERN KS INTO NERN OK WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED ACROSS NERN OK AND EXTREME SERN KS SHORTLY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THIS PORTION OF THE LINE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NWRN TX INTO CNTRL OK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE INTEGRITY OF THE LINE ACROSS NCNTRL INTO CNTRL OK DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRESENCE OF INCREASING INHIBITION MAY ALLOW THE GUST FRONT TO SURGE FARTHER FROM THE UPDRAFTS WITH TIME AND THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH. UNTIL THEN...ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. ..RACY.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 35919846 37239645 37939605 37819509 36899465 35809470 34869806 34849851  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 18:18:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 13:18:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506161829.j5GITvdU024228@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161829 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-162030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1360 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX AND NRN/CNTRL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161829Z - 162030Z SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DOWNBURST AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX AND CNTRL LA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND CELL DURATION. WHILE A WATCH DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR NECESSARY...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. MOST INTENSE CELLS INITIATED EARLIER ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION NW OF IER. ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DE SOTO TO JACKSON PARISHES IN NRN LA. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA SUGGESTING MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. AT PRESENT...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS LIKELY LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION AND EXPECT MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION TO POSE PRIMARILY AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE RED RIVER/NRN TX AREA...SPREADS ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHERMORE...IF ENOUGH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COINCIDENT WITH THIS INCREASE IN FLOW...A LARGER COLD POOL COULD ALLOW UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT TO A MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND/HAIL SITUATION. IF IT BECOMES CLEARER THAT THIS SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. ..CARBIN.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 30859136 30839224 30899433 30979563 31559630 31969638 32389588 32329506 32319440 32399365 32349298 32259218 32229184 31989113 31569078 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 18:33:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 13:33:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506161844.j5GIiX3o002220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161843 MTZ000-WYZ000-162045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1361 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WY AND MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL/NERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161843Z - 162045Z INCREASING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN MT. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MT. WV IMAGERY AT 1830Z CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS LEADING TO LARGE-SCALE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS ERN ID/SWRN MT...AND NW-SE ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE SWRN MTNS OF MT AT THE PRESENT TIME. DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THESE STORMS GIVEN AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL MT AND FAR NRN WY. A N-S SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PHILLIPS AND GARFIELD COUNTIES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S ALONG AND EWD TO NEAR GGW. THE 18Z GGW SOUNDING INDICATES MUCAPE OF 2300 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR LONG-LIVED CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL. MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM HLN TO COD AS IT ENCOUNTERS GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS S-CENTRAL MT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS ORGANIZED ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 45240807 44750790 44440855 44320982 45371150 45981213 46291235 46781207 47341125 48330983 48860872 48950799 48840704 48050683 47320712 45560775 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 19:44:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 14:44:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506161955.j5GJtxsx017074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161955 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161954 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-162230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1362 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...WRN OK....TX/OK PNHDLS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161954Z - 162230Z TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND A WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION SHORTLY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH REBOUNDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A RAPID INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FROM SERN CO/NERN NM ESEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN KS AND NWRN OK. WHILE MUCH OF THIS VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PROBABLY STILL CAPPED BY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /700MB TEMPS OF 12-14C/...A NARROW AXIS OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FOCUS FOR MOISTURE EXISTS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAP ACROSS WRN/NWRN OK. THIS AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MCS AND EXTENDS NWWD TO INTERSECT LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SERN CO AND THE OK/TX PNHDLS. ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF HEATING SHOULD SUFFICIENTLY ERODE THE CAP TO RESULT IN RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THESE FEATURES. FURTHER SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY COME FROM LOW-AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA AT THIS TIME. BAND OF ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35KT ATOP WEAKER SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. SPC HAIL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT MIGHT SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR...BUT MAY BE ENHANCED FOR SUPERCELLS TRACKING EWD/SEWD ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARY WHERE LFC IS LIKELY TO BE LOCALLY LOWER. ..CARBIN.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB... 35840079 35970171 36790279 37900277 38120184 37530042 36969770 36489722 35499751 35129824 35439920 35700016 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 19:58:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 14:58:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506162009.j5GK9s9T025571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162008 NEZ000-KSZ000-162215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1363 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB AND FAR NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162008Z - 162215Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB AND FAR NRN KS. EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. WELL-DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...WITH EYE-LIKE FEATURE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...WAS CENTERED OVER BLAINE COUNTY IN N-CENTRAL NEB AT 1950Z. TRAILING SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS AROUND THE ERN AND SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV...WITH POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS IN THE GRAND ISLAND AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS E-W ACROSS FAR SRN NEB...WHERE IT INTERSECTS NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. THE 100MB MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER. MODEST LOW-TO-MID LEVEL VEERING ON HASTINGS VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. SUFFICIENT SFC-6KM SHEAR /AROUND 35KT/ AND INSTABILITY EXIST FOR A LOCALIZED THREAT OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER CELLS. TRAINING EWD CELL MOTIONS OF ONLY AROUND 10 KT MAY ALSO RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN S-CENTRAL NEB DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD... 40870140 41040041 40999975 40969859 41249823 41349790 41179682 40669640 40259622 39849629 39759666 39790041 40040085 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 21:39:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 16:39:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506162150.j5GLoZ2c021352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162149 TXZ000-NMZ000-162315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM INTO WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162149Z - 162315Z DEVELOPING TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS ACTIVITY CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. AS OF 2138Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM QUAY/DE BACA SWD INTO EDDY COUNTIES IN ERN NM EWD INTO BAILEY AND COCHRAN COUNTIES IN WRN TX. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENT LBB VWP AND JAYTON PROFILER INDICATE SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY ABOVE 4-5 KM AGL WHICH IS RESULTING IN 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HIGH-BASED TSTMS /INCLUDING POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER SHOULD STORMS MERGE INTO CLUSTERS AND ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...POSSIBLY REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 32590450 34070448 35060371 35120273 35060239 34300156 33090140 32230158 31610193 31250252 31090344 31930431 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 21:44:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 16:44:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506162155.j5GLtP2M024478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162154 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-162330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN WY AND CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487... VALID 162154Z - 162330Z CONTINUE WW. BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES 245/20KT ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF MT. LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WWD INTO THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN IMPROVED INFLOW TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE WITH STORMS ENCOUNTERING MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER 35KT SWLY SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED CELLS INTO E-CENTRAL/NERN MT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH 17/00Z. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN WITH CONTINUED UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN UPPER JET. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...IN EXCESS OF 40F...SUGGEST STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH... 43580742 43570937 43571156 46921101 49031056 49090882 49070743 49010601 47780633 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 21:45:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 16:45:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506162156.j5GLur6G025194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162149 TXZ000-NMZ000-162315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM INTO WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162149Z - 162315Z DEVELOPING TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS ACTIVITY CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. AS OF 2138Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM QUAY/DE BACA SWD INTO EDDY COUNTIES IN ERN NM EWD INTO BAILEY AND COCHRAN COUNTIES IN WRN TX. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENT LBB VWP AND JAYTON PROFILER INDICATE SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY ABOVE 4-5 KM AGL WHICH IS RESULTING IN 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HIGH-BASED TSTMS /INCLUDING POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER SHOULD STORMS MERGE INTO CLUSTERS AND ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...POSSIBLY REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 32590450 34070448 35060371 35120273 35060239 34300156 33090140 32230158 31610193 31250252 31090344 31930431  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 21:50:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 16:50:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506162201.j5GM1GhC027984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162154 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-162330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN WY AND CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487... VALID 162154Z - 162330Z CONTINUE WW. BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES 245/20KT ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF MT. LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WWD INTO THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN IMPROVED INFLOW TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE WITH STORMS ENCOUNTERING MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER 35KT SWLY SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED CELLS INTO E-CENTRAL/NERN MT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH 17/00Z. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN WITH CONTINUED UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN UPPER JET. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...IN EXCESS OF 40F...SUGGEST STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH... 43580742 43570937 43571156 46921101 49031056 49090882 49070743 49010601 47780633  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 23:11:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 18:11:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506162322.j5GNMAq7002718@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162321 KSZ000-NEZ000-170115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1366 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN NEB AND NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162321Z - 170115Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SERN NEB AND NERN KS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. OVERALL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AT 23Z...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL NEB PER LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE ERN THROUGH SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER JUST NORTH OF CNK. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AXIS...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG...INTERSECTS THE EAST-WEST PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA. LIMITED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUATION OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. PROFILERS INDICATE THAT SFC-3KM WINDS ARE LIGHT...WITH 30-40KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED CORES CONTAINING LARGE HAIL...WITH CELLS MOVING SLOWLY ESEWD AT 5-10KT WITH MOTION OF MCV AND ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY. ..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39599866 40039859 40479694 40439643 40299575 39419516 39039534 38789566 38619629 38579712 38669771 38899829 39169850 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 23:23:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 18:23:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506162334.j5GNYoUO008390@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162334 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162333 OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-170100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS INTO NRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 488... VALID 162333Z - 170100Z THROUGH 01Z...POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST OVER SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK. THEREAFTER...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF A DAMAGING WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL OK...POSSIBLY INTO CNTRL OK. AS OF 2312Z...DDC VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA SHOWED RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS OVER HASKELL AND MEADE COUNTIES IN SWRN KS...AS WELL AS NRN HARPER COUNTY IN NWRN OK. MEANWHILE...LEFT-MOVING STORM SPLITS WERE OBSERVED OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CLARK AND COMANCHE COUNTIES IN SWRN KS. BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INVOF NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SWRN KS INTO CNTRL OK REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING OWING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MLCAPES AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CURRENT HAVILAND KS PROFILER INDICATES STRONG VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL WITH STRONG ANVIL LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS RESULTING IN LONG HODOGRAPHS ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MARGINALLY STRONG...THE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER AND LOW LFC HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH CYCLONIC SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL TO SOFTBALL SIZE OR LARGER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A SEWD-MOVING MCS LATER TONIGHT AS INDIVIDUAL CELL COLD POOL/S MERGE AND ORGANIZE. GIVEN OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...INCLUDING DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OK...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PROGRESSIVE DERECHO/BOW ECHO. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 38750201 36849563 35159562 37110206 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 00:52:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 19:52:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506170103.j5H13P33012070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170102 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-170230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1368 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170102Z - 170230Z IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING OVER WRN AND CNTRL OK OVERNIGHT. AS OF 0048Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT INTENSE STORMS OVER SWRN KS...THE ERN OK PNHDL AND NWRN OK ARE ORGANIZING A COLD POOL FROM JUST E OF LBL SEWD TO N OF GAG TO NEAR ALVA OK. 00Z OUN SOUNDING INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER CNTRL OK IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM AND MLCAPES OF AROUND 4000 J/KG. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SEWD WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LARGELY ALONG OR JUST ON COOL SIDE OF BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH ONGOING STORMS /NE OF GAG/ TO W OF THE OKC METRO TO THE RED RIVER OVER S-CNTRL OK/N-CNTRL TX. MODEST-STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW /PER 00Z AMA AND OUN SOUNDINGS/ COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE FLOW /VIA DEVELOPING LLJ OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK/ AND THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID FORWARD-PROPAGATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND/DERECHO EVENT. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS S OF WW 488. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36140031 37060049 37230041 36889838 35339687 34099679 33939768 34139874 34779990 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 01:45:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 20:45:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506170156.j5H1uKug002595@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170155 MTZ000-170330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0855 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT...NRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487... VALID 170155Z - 170330Z THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN/ERN PORTIONS OF WW 487 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER CENTRAL/ERN MT AHEAD OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN MT. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE DOWNWARD MOTION AND CANOPY OF CIRRUS CLOUDS/OUTFLOW COOLED AIR OVER SCENTRAL MT/NCENTRAL WY SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE LINES MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MT APPEARS LIMITED. ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINES SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS/MUCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG/ OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 04Z. NEWD COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE SVR THREAT FROM MOVING MUCH EAST OF WW 487 BEFORE INHIBITION INCREASES AND SVR THREAT DIMINISHES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING /AROUND 04Z...WW 487 EXPIRATION TIME/. ..CROSBIE.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 46910642 49080625 48971034 48631143 47101127 45030720 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 03:45:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 22:45:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506170356.j5H3uIYU022384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170355 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-170530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491... VALID 170355Z - 170530Z CORRIDORS OF 60-70 MPH WINDS WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIKELY WITH ONGOING MCS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS OF 0330Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH EMBEDDED HP SUPERCELLS FROM CNTRL LOGAN COUNTY WWD INTO ROGER MILLS COUNTY GENERALLY MOVING S AT 40 MPH. 75 MPH WINDS WERE RECENTLY OBSERVED IN LOGAN COUNTY WITHIN REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT /RFD/ REGION OF LONG-LIVED HP SUPERCELL WHERE AMBIENT WINDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY MESOCYCLONE CIRCULATION. RUC ANALYSES AND MODIFICATION OF 00Z OUN SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER CNTRL/SRN OK REMAINS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OF 45-55 KTS /PER MODIFICATION OF TWIN LAKES VWP FOR OBSERVED STORM MOTION/...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE FOR CONTINUATION OF THIS DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS /POSSIBLY LASTING UPWARDS OF 10 MINUTES/ WITHIN RFD REGIONS OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 37240008 36939549 33889552 34120011 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 05:17:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 00:17:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506170528.j5H5S8ZN028518@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170527 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170527 TXZ000-OKZ000-170700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1371 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N TX / NWRN LA / SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170527Z - 170700Z LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS OK...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO N TX WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED. MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS S OK / N TX TO THE S AND E OF MCS...PARTICULARLY IN A NW-SE AXIS FROM S CENTRAL / SERN OK ACROSS N TX AND INTO SERN TX ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY. MCS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED...AND GIVEN FAVORABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO SPREAD RAPIDLY SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...REQUIRING NEW WW ISSUANCE INTO TX AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NWRN LA / SERN LA. ..GOSS.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... 33909577 33479502 31939446 31269560 31449765 31959818 33349871 34099877 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 08:29:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 03:29:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506170840.j5H8e5RF005008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170839 ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-171015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491... VALID 170839Z - 171015Z MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WITHIN MCS NOW MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SERN OK / THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARD WRN AR / THE ARKLATEX. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN OK PORTION OF WW. STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN MCS HAVE TAKEN ON A DECIDEDLY MORE ESEWD MOTION OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...AS INTERSECTION OF AN EWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER N TX ASSOCIATED WITH AN EARLIER STORM AND SWD-MOVING BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MCS MARKS THE WRN EDGE OF STRONGEST CONVECTION. UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS SERN OK / NERN TX. HOWEVER...STRATIFORM-TYPE RAIN NOW EVIDENT AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS OK MAY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE DEGREE THAT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AT THE SURFACE DECREASES WITH TIME ACROSS REMAINING FEW COUNTIES WITHIN WW. FURTHERMORE...MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS WRN AR ALSO CASTS DOUBT ON THE NEED FOR NEW WW FURTHER E. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE HOUR. FINALLY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ABOVE COLD POOL ACROSS WRN OK...AS LOW-LEVEL JET PERSISTS ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MARGINAL HAIL GIVEN STABILIZED / RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER. ..GOSS.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... 35339558 35689492 34669445 34029448 33919550 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 15:06:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 10:06:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506171517.j5HFH42g023277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171516 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171516 MSZ000-LAZ000-171715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LA...WRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493... VALID 171516Z - 171715Z A LINE OF STORMS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS LA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WW SOUTH OF WW 493 MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED SOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX IN ERN OK MOVING SEWD INTO THE AR AND LA WITH STRONG ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS LA. THIS IS DRIVING A CONVECTIVE LINE SEWD ACROSS LA AND WRN MS. THE LINE IS MOVING INTO 70 TO 75 F DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 80 F WHICH IS HELPING TO CREATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE LINE SHOULD REMAIN STRONG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND THE LINE MOVES INTO THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30129114 30909281 31519272 32219205 31819059 30988956 30019008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 18:16:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 13:16:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506171827.j5HIRDmI014884@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171826 MTZ000-171930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1374 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171826Z - 171930Z SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE REQUIRED. CONTINUED HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ALONG WITH BROAD AREA OF 55-60+ SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR MDT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF FORCING AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE...STORM MOTIONS WILL BE QUITE FAST WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL WITHIN SURFACE MOIST AXIS WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKED AND LCL HEIGHTS LOWEST. ..JEWELL.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO... 48960855 46890846 45100943 45031200 45721230 46351248 48931338 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 18:27:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 13:27:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506171838.j5HIc7Dj022500@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171837 FLZ000-172030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171837Z - 172030Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL WILL HAVE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW ATTM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE SERN US WITH A MOISTURE PLUME DRIFTING EWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MOIST PLUME PARTIALLY DUE TO SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON IN FL SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER THE STORMS SHOULD BE PULSE IN NATURE DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE DUE TO WARMING SFC TEMPS. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A ISOLATED MARGINAL WIND THREAT ACROSS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF FL THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 25128057 26968223 28388240 28718149 28348069 26668008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 20:32:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 15:32:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506172043.j5HKh2Vb007392@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172041 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-172245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1376 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...SRN MS AND SRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494... VALID 172041Z - 172245Z A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS ACROSS SRN LA...SRN MS AND SRN AL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST AND SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL WW ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS LA INTO FAR SRN MS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S F WITH SBCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD FUEL THE CONVECTION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER EAST TX NOSING INTO LA WHICH MAY INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO SUSTAIN A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES REMAINING BELOW 30 KT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH... 30798882 31608817 31608766 31218734 30128803 29378917 28899021 29029093 29649241 30189190 29809051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 21:51:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 16:51:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506172202.j5HM2jQu020508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172201 LAZ000-TXZ000-172300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N TX INTO NWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172201Z - 172300Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM 30 N MWL TO THE DAL/FTW METROPLEX TO NEAR GGG INTO NWRN LA JUST S OF SHV. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THIS FEATURE. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA IS IN A REGION OF NEGLIGIBLE FORCING FOR ASCENT /POSSIBLY EVEN SUBSIDENCE ZONE/ IN WAKE OF MCV TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA. THUS...MESOSCALE LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY WILL BE PRIMARY MECHANISM INITIATING DEEP CONVECTION. MODIFYING PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LOCALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY YIELDS MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL ON CURRENT PALESTINE PROFILER...PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND MODEST /I.E. 40-45 KT/ NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED. ..MEAD.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD... 33279839 33319812 33129669 32939535 32319356 31899336 31459389 31479474 31699624 32249815 32629856 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 21:58:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 16:58:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506172209.j5HM9hbu024339@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172209 MTZ000-WYZ000-180015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495... VALID 172209Z - 180015Z LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MT...SUGGESTING STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INGEST STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WHERE CIN HAS ERODED. MODIFIED 18Z GGW SOUNDING CONFIRMS LITTLE INHIBITION IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN VERY STRONG STORM RELATIVE INFLOW / INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET / AND CONTINUED HEATING...STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF A LIBERTY TO STILLWATER COUNTY LINE. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN MT...AS STORMS MOVE QUICKLY NERN OUT OF WW 495. ..JEWELL.. 06/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO... 44980807 45001198 48951331 48980911 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 02:04:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 21:04:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506180215.j5I2F7j6030441@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180212 MTZ000-180315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0912 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496... VALID 180212Z - 180315Z THROUGH 03Z...APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS VALLEY COUNTY. AS OF 0200Z...GGW RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF INTENSIFYING TSTMS OVER NERN PHILLIPS COUNTY MOVING 235/40-45 KTS. IT APPEARS THAT STRONG ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COLD POOL IS ALLOWING PARCELS TO REACH THE LFC AND REALIZE AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE 2000-3000 MLCAPES OBSERVED ON THE 00Z GGW SOUNDING. COLLISION OF THIS GUST FRONT WITH WWD MOVING BOUNDARY/MOISTURE SURGE MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL VALLEY COUNTY. GIVEN OUTFLOW DOMINANT CHARACTER OF ONGOING CONVECTION...EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ..MEAD.. 06/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 49070894 49070541 46680493 46680829  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 03:47:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 22:47:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506180358.j5I3w1TZ003044@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180356 MTZ000-180500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1380 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496... VALID 180356Z - 180500Z THROUGH 05Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST OVER VALLEY...WRN ROOSEVELT AND DANIELS COUNTIES IN NERN MT. AS OF 0345Z...GGW RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS MERGING INTO A WAVY LINE FROM NWRN DANIELS COUNTY SSWWD TO SRN VALLEY COUNTY. SRN PORTION OF LINE HAS EVOLVED INTO A BOWING STRUCTURE WITH A MOTION OF 220/45-50 KTS...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 70 MPH ALONG/N OF THE FT. PECK RESERVOIR. EXTRAPOLATION OF ONGOING TSTMS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL TO SPREAD E OF WW 496 INTO DANIELS...WRN ROOSEVELT AND PERHAPS WRN SHERIDAN COUNTIES THROUGH 05 OR 06Z. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED OWING TO LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT. ..MEAD.. 06/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 49070891 49070538 46690493 46680832 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 16:15:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 11:15:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506181626.j5IGQ7qo019091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181625 SCZ000-GAZ000-181830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1381 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181625Z - 181830Z SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN GA AND SC. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE SRN EDGE. AS A RESULT...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG ACROSS ERN GA AND SRN SC. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS NEARLY GONE AND A FEW SFC-BASED STORMS ARE INITIATING IN ERN GA. AS THE CELLS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL EXIST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SHOW LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -11C TO -13C. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS CELLS MATURE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31108259 31918309 33378219 34078093 33917986 33057933 31958090 30788164 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 19:45:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 14:45:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506181956.j5IJubUi012471@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181955 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-182200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1382 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC...WRN SC AND NE GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181955Z - 182200Z THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS WRN NC...WRN SC AND NE GA WILL HAVE A HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW. A LINE OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING ALONG A RIDGE-LINE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NC AND NRN GA DUE TO SFC HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-TROUGH. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNDER THE UPPER-LOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK BUT SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS THE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...THE WEAK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER A COLD POOL ALOFT WHERE 500 MB TEMPS ARE NEAR -15C WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...FFC... 35898010 34978115 33838313 33998358 34598385 35908209 36588089 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 20:24:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 15:24:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506182035.j5IKZsmg028715@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182034 IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-182230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1383 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182034Z - 182230Z HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS WRN AND NRN ID LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW ATTM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW ROTATING JUST OFF THE COAST OF ORE WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A VORTICITY MAX EVIDENT IN SRN ID. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS WRN AND NRN ID CONTINUING TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A BRIEF HAIL THREAT MAY BE PRESENT DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS OF -22C)...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 42961519 43341650 43981690 46451663 46321433 43771419 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 21:06:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 16:06:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506182117.j5ILHcrX014266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182116 NDZ000-SDZ000-182345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0416 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND AND N-CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182116Z - 182345Z INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU ALONG COLD FRONT FROM W-CNTRL ND INTO NRN SD...WITH SFC LOW CLEARLY EVIDENT OVER MOUNTRAIL COUNTY ND. STRONG INSTABILITY IS NOW IN PLACE BUT INITIATION IS BEING RETARDED BY WARM CAPPING LAYER NEAR 700 MB. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WITH COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO FORM. THE MOST LIKELY AREA WILL BE OVER N CENTRAL ND WHERE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS STORMS MOVE FARTHER E INTO LARGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER ON THIS EVENING FARTHER SOUTH...WHEN CAPPING LAYER COOLS JUST ABOVE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ..JEWELL.. 06/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 50369809 49199843 46929968 45369993 44790142 44700274 45290249 45900224 46670216 47360219 47830250 48210276 48740287 49640207 50949951 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 02:06:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 21:06:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506190217.j5J2HGVC025779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190216 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-190415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1385 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0916 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190216Z - 190415Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 03-05Z OVER PARTS OF SERN MT AND SPREAD NEWD INTO WRN ND. A SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCE OF INITIATION EXISTS FARTHER EAST OVER CNTRL ND. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ONCE IT APPEARS INITIATION IS IMMINENT. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH NWRN SD INTO NERN WY. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY EXISTS FROM E CNTRL ND SWWD TO NEAR BISMARK. THE ATMOSPHERE IN VICINITY OF AND E OF THE FRONT OVER ND REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG AND AROUND 1500 J/KG FARTHER SW INTO SE MT WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOLER AND DRYER. THE WRN BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER WRN ND THIS EVENING...AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THETA-E ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE SERN MT PORTION OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE ETA AND THE RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA THIS EVENING...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING OVER SERN MT. STORMS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP NEWD INTO WRN ND. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50+ KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. FARTHER EAST...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL ND...AND THE 00Z BISMARK RAOB SHOWED ONLY A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FORCING FOR INITIATION HAS BEEN MODEST. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IF INITIATION DOES HAPPEN...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO SPREAD INTO THIS REGION FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. ..DIAL.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45320419 44650676 45460771 46500513 48500310 48930120 48619962 46950017 45990171 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 06:25:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 01:25:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506190636.j5J6ankm019231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190636 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190635 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-190800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT / WRN AND CENTRAL ND / NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497... VALID 190635Z - 190800Z STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...AND MAY SHIFT EWD OUT OF WW / INTO CENTRAL AND NRN ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED SOON. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL STRONG STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS OVER SERN MT AND ADJACENT SWRN ND / NWRN SD ATTM...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO SMALL BOW ECHOES WITH TIME. THOUGH STORMS REMAIN ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NNE-SSW ACROSS CENTRAL ND...EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT STORM MOTION SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY CROSS THE FRONT INTO VERY UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS ALONG / E OF FRONT. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO VEER WITH TIME...CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS ACROSS FRONT SEEMS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE. GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS NEAR 70/ AND INSTABILITY ACROSS WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH FAVORABLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD INCREASE ASSUMING STORMS SHIFT EWD INTO AIRMASS OF INCREASINGLY-LESS-ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WW W OF FRONT. ..GOSS.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 47880388 48829895 48779710 47299770 45360157 45160658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 08:23:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 03:23:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506190834.j5J8Y46s031473@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190832 NDZ000-191000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497... VALID 190832Z - 191000Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER NERN CORNER OF WW. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING NEWD / ENEWD ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF WW ATTM...WITH STRONGEST STORM NOW MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 498. WITH MAJORITY OF SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO VACATE THIS WW BY 19/09Z...WATCH 497 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..GOSS.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS... 47880140 47870063 46830176 47300173 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 09:57:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 04:57:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506191008.j5JA8QF7001620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191007 MNZ000-NDZ000-191130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498... VALID 191007Z - 191130Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF WW...AND MAY AFFECT A COUPLE OF ADJACENT COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING NEWD INTO CANADA. NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST RADAR SHOWS ROTATING STORM / STORM CLUSTER MOVING NEWD NEAR 50 KT...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO CANADA BY 19/12Z. THIS STORM / STORM CLUSTER REMAINS THE ONLY SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING ATTM...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE S OR W OF THIS CONVECTION NOT ANTICIPATED. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THOUGH MAJORITY OF SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN CONFINED BY WW...PARTS OF WRN WALSH / WRN PEMBINA COUNTIES MAY BE AFFECTED BY THIS CONVECTION BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CANADA. HOWEVER...SINCE ANY THREAT OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH WOULD BE LIMITED BOTH TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY...NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD STORMS ENTER CANADA BY 12Z AS ANTICIPATED...WW MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION. ..GOSS.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48160001 48979894 49019712 48349772 47639949 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 17:27:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 12:27:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506191738.j5JHcg8F025335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191738 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191737 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-191930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1389 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SC...SE GA...FAR NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191737Z - 191930Z SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN SC AND ERN GA. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW ATTM. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND ACROSS SRN SC AND SERN GA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER SC WITH A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING SWD AROUND THE LOW. THE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND INLAND ACROSS GA AND SC THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS HAS RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F AND LOWER 70S RESULTING MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30228200 30718320 31608326 33128106 32818028 32338057 31308139 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 20:13:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 15:13:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506192024.j5JKOeDC026073@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192023 MNZ000-NDZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1390 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192023Z - 192200Z STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN ERN ND AND SHOULD HAVE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN ND EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS FAR NW MN. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS GONE AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FROM ALONG THE BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE AND DEVELOP BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP...THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 48859719 47579843 46849734 47899445 48739435 48989560 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 20:47:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 15:47:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506192058.j5JKw86Q006464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192057 SDZ000-NDZ000-192300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1391 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SD AND SRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192057Z - 192300Z A LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST IF STORMS CAN INITIATE IN NRN SD AND SRN ND THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM WEST OF MOBRIDGE SD TO NEAR GRAND FORKS ND. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS STRONG ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING. THIS MAY ALLOW TOWERING CUMULUS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF BISMARK TO EXPAND AND DEVELOP INTO A STORM OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF SD. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IF STORMS CAN INITIATE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST DUE TO THE EXTREME INSTABILITY. HOWEVER..LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..BROYLES.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46539837 45329839 43930134 43800228 44560245 45840207 47199916 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 21:53:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 16:53:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506192204.j5JM4jI1032529@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192203 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1392 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WY...SERN MT AND WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192203Z - 200030Z POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER NRN WY...SERN MT INTO WRN SD. SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH W CNTRL SD INTO SERN WY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE HAS SPREAD THROUGH NRN MT AND ND IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A THERMAL LOW OVER WY IS CONTRIBUTING TO NELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BIG HORNS OF NRN WY...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S CNTRL AND SERN MT AND THE BLACK HILLS OF WRN SD. SURFACE HEATING IS FURTHER ENHANCING OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING. THE ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AS FAR W AS SHERIDAN WY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 J/KG OVER SERN MT/NERN WY TO 2500 J/G OVER WRN SD. A BAND OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW EXIST OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ABOVE THE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. TIMING OF INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ..DIAL.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW... 43590319 43890502 44010687 44840774 45680861 46070774 46120579 45420299 44490219 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 22:07:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 17:07:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506192217.j5JMHuIU005104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192217 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-200015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1393 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY / WRN NEBRASKA / NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192217Z - 200015Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S INTO NERN CO AND ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER. THERE IS LITTLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT...REFLECTED BY THE LACK OF PRESSURE FALLS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE 1-2 KM DEEP ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE MTS / CO FRONT RANGE WHICH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN ERODED CAP...CONTINUED HEATING...AND UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT QUICKLY. IN ADDITION...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD OUT OF CENTRAL SD INTO NWRN NEBRASKA MAY BE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE REGION IS NEARLY UNCAPPED. ..JEWELL.. 06/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 39020228 39220399 39560562 40410564 41440547 42070553 42820587 42950245 42520195 41800222 39120215 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 23:53:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 18:53:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506200004.j5K040br011228@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200002 MNZ000-NDZ000-200200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND THROUGH NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499... VALID 200002Z - 200200Z THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER NWRN MN NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE ERN PARTS OF WW 499. A SMALL WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED E OF CURRENT WATCH IF STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO BUILD SWWD INTO ERN ND DURING THE EVENING. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH ERN AND S CNTRL ND THEN FARTHER SW INTO WRN SD. A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN SD...SERN ND INTO NWRN MN. ATMOSPHERE IN VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 J/KG OVER NWRN MN TO 3500 J/KG OVER SERN ND. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS BEEN OVER NWRN MN. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY IS BEING ENHANCED ON NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET THAT APPEARS TO BE COUPLED WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ACROSS SRN CANADA. A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INTENSIFY FARTHER SWWD THROUGH ERN SD THIS EVENING...AND THIS MAY INCREASE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FARTHER SWD INTO SERN ND...NERN SD. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP FARTHER SWWD...THEY MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY THAT RESIDES OVER SERN ND. ..DIAL.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... 48239348 47069509 46059790 46419890 47989735 49419567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 04:33:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 23:33:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506200444.j5K4igSM022262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200444 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200443 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1395 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NERN WY AND WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500... VALID 200443Z - 200645Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NERN WY INTO SERN MT. ACTIVITY IN NERN WY MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO WRN SD. OTHER STORMS MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING FARTHER WWD INTO S CNTRL AND SERN MT. ASIDE FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN NERN WY AND ARE NOW MOVING INTO SERN MT...STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP FARTHER W TOWARD S CNTRL MT. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A VORT MAX MOVING NEWD THROUGH SWRN MT OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS. IN ADDITION...A BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER SERN MT TONIGHT. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES MAY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. A SMALL SUPERCELL RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER ROSEBUD COUNTY WITH OTHER CONVECTION DEVELOPING S OF THIS STORM. ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER NERN WY HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD NWRN SD WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STRONGLY CAPPED. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL...LIFT MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND WOULD PROMOTE ACTIVITY FORWARD PROPAGATING EWD INTO WRN SD. ..DIAL.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW... 44150374 44480692 44870889 46200878 46700800 46580631 45770350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 07:07:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 02:07:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506200718.j5K7IO35010836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200717 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200717 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1396 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / NERN WY / NWRN SD / SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500... VALID 200717Z - 200815Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE IN AND NEAR WW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEW WW UPON SCHEDULED 20/08Z EXPIRATION OF WW 501. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS INCREASING ACROSS E CENTRAL AND SERN MT...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE VORT MAX MOVING NEWD ACROSS NWRN WY / SWRN MT WITHIN FAST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. WITH STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...MAIN SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MARGINAL HAIL. FARTHER SE...CONVECTION OVER FAR SERN MT / FAR NERN WY INTO NWRN SD APPEARS TO BE ATTEMPTING TO ORGANIZE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL. MESOSCALE CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN BUTTE / HARDING / PERKINS COUNTIES SD ATTM...WHICH CONCEIVABLY COULD BECOME THE ROTATING COMMA HEAD OF A BOW-TYPE ECHO. COULD THIS CLUSTER INDEED EVOLVE INTO A BOWING MCS...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD INCREASE...GIVEN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST N OF SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE FACT THAT THIS ORGANIZATION HAS STRUGGLED TO OCCUR THUS FAR SUGGESTS THAT WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...WITH LINGERING SEVERE THREAT CONFINED TO PRIMARILY MARGINAL HAIL. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE STORM ORGANIZATION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HOUR...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED NEED FOR POSSIBLE NEW WW. ..GOSS.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46640734 47540613 47360349 46770130 45930077 44450142 44020320 44430469 45890731 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 09:31:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 04:31:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506200941.j5K9fs9t001417@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200940 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-201115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT / SRN ND / NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502... VALID 200940Z - 201115Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW...AND MAY SPREAD EWD OUT OF WW INTO PORTIONS OF SERN ND / NERN SD. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO COVER POSSIBLE EWD SPREAD OF SEVERE THREAT. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG / SEVERE STORMS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF WW...WHERE AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THOUGH MAJORITY OF THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THIS WW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...STORMS ACROSS NWRN SD HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. THIS CONVECTION -- THOUGH OCCURRING INVOF APPARENT WEAKNESS IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD -- SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS IT MOVES EWD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL. WITH AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO INCREASINGLY-MORE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY...NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED E OF WATCH 502. ..GOSS.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 47130684 47120339 46580002 46969765 46379687 45149860 44880189 45480503 46080687 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 11:18:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 06:18:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506201129.j5KBT6uo013142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201128 SDZ000-NDZ000-201300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1398 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502... VALID 201128Z - 201300Z STORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS MUCH OF WW...THOUGH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN ND. STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS WW ATTM REMAIN WITHIN BOW ECHO NOW EXITING WW 502 / ENTERING WW 503. THESE STORMS SHOULD VACATE EMMONS COUNTY WITHIN THE HOUR -- THE ERN-MOST COUNTY WITHIN WW 502. STORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...THOUGH CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW OVER SWRN ND MAY POSE A LOCAL / LOW-END THREAT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ASSUMING PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 20/13Z EXPIRATION. ..GOSS.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 47240323 47410103 45920100 45920353 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 12:29:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 07:29:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506201240.j5KCehfH014514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201239 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-201415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1399 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND / W CENTRAL MN / NERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503... VALID 201239Z - 201415Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW. WELL-DEVELOPED BOW ECHO CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SERN ND AT 45 KT...WHILE ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS -- INCLUDING A SPLIT SUPERCELL PAIR -- ARE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE BOWING MCS. EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT NRN PORTIONS OF BOW MAY AFFECT COUNTIES JUST N OF WW -- ACROSS E CENTRAL ND AND NWRN MN -- IN THE NEXT 1 1/2 TO 2 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL WITHIN WW...THUS EXPECT THAT A SLIGHTLY MORE EWD MOVEMENT OF BOW MAY EVOLVE WITH TIME -- KEEPING MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITHIN WW. EITHER WAY...ANY THREAT N OF WW WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO ONLY A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES...AND THUS NEW WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. SHOULD THREAT INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY N OF WW WITH TIME...A REPLACEMENT WW COULD BECOME MORE LIKELY. ..GOSS.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46799942 47059869 47569711 47699602 47259499 45709493 45699867 46309893 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 14:10:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 09:10:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506201420.j5KEKopj009723@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201420 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201419 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-201515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1400 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ND AND WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503... VALID 201419Z - 201515Z LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES 27040 AND ABOUT TO CROSS ND/MN BORDER. LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE LINE HAS OVERTAKEN EARLIER SUPERCELLS OVER RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AND OVERALL THERE IS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IN THE LINE ITSELF. THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE AS IT MOVES INTO WRN MN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A COUPLE MORE HOURS BUT WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. PLANS ARE TO ALLOW WW503 TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 15Z WITH SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ..HALES.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46799942 47059869 47569711 47699602 47259499 45709493 45699867 46309893 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 15:32:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 10:32:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506201543.j5KFhIFr000933@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201542 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201542 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-201645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1401 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MINNESOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201542Z - 201645Z LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ONGOING SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS NWRN MN HAS RE-INTENSIFIED. A NEW WATCH COULD BE ISSUED SHORTLY ..HALES.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46799942 47059869 47569711 47699602 47259499 45709493 45699867 46309893 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 17:49:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 12:49:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506201800.j5KI0Mem032468@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201759 MNZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-201930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1402 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201759Z - 201930Z BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING SEVERE STORMS CENTRAL MN TRAILS WSWWD INTO E CENTRAL SD. S OF BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO LOW 70S AND TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90F THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 4000 J/KG. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER SPINK COUNTY SD IN RESPONSE TO LIFT OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. WITH CONTINUED HEATING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ALONG AND N OF THIS E/W BOUNDARY WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY. A WATCH COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FROM ERN SD INTO SRN MN. ..HALES.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR... 45269822 45399714 45439592 45519477 45689324 45519274 44779231 43939253 43819440 43849641 44089792 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 19:04:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 14:04:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506201915.j5KJFB32018686@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201913 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201913 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-202115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND N CENTRAL NEBRASKA / SOUTH CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201913Z - 202115Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED ACROSS SRN SD / NRN AND NWRN NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE APPEARS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD OUT OF SWRN SD INTO NWRN NEBRASKA...WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. BOUNDARY MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED FARTHER E INTO S CENTRAL SD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR FORCING IS QUITE UNFAVORABLE AT THIS TIME...WITH RIDGE ALOFT AND DIFFLUENT 850 MB FLOW. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES STORMS BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH CAPPING REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS EVIDENT BY HORIZONTAL WAVE CLOUDS...CONTINUED HEATING WILL WEAKEN INHIBITION FURTHER WITH LBF AND RAP MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATING UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 NEEDED TO ERASE CIN. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES AND FORCING ARE WEAK...STORMS MAY GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ORGANIZATION. ..JEWELL.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 43150277 43560032 44139912 43839845 42999813 42439891 42090036 41650188 41090249 41040330 41120394 43010416 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 20:59:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 15:59:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506202110.j5KLATAN028195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202109 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-202315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1404 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0409 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL MT / NRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202109Z - 202315Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXCEEDING 60 F WELL INTO CENTRAL MT. MODIFIED 18Z GGW SOUNDING SHOWS AREA IS UNCAPPED...WHILE RAP SOUNDING SUGGESTS AREA WILL REQUIRE SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING BEFORE STORMS CAN SURVIVE AS THEY MOVE OFF THE BLACK HILLS. AREA WIND PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE REGION WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS AND WEAK BUT VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. DUE TO THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...TORNADO THREAT IS NOT HIGH BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SUPERCELLS MORPH INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING. ..JEWELL.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO... 46130705 45250640 44860395 44680307 43910246 43780279 43910348 44160583 44090677 44360726 44880785 45440867 46050978 46431223 47491315 48311350 48941391 48910744 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 22:15:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 17:15:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506202226.j5KMQOm7007998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202225 NEZ000-COZ000-210030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1405 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0525 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202225Z - 210030Z A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THROUGH MID EVENING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS EVENING STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO INCLUDING THE FRONT RANGE W OF DENVER AS WELL AS THE PALMER DIVIDE. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NERN CO ALONG A NE-SW ORIENTED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO NEAR 3000 J/KG NEAR THE CO/NEB BORDER. THIS REGION IS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WITH RESULTING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...WEAK FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS TRANSIENT MULTICELL STRUCTURES SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT STORM TYPE. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..DIAL.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 40380201 39120229 38680381 38000514 40460464 41080266 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 23:28:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 18:28:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506202339.j5KNdEDR010835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202338 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1406 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN IA AND NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506... VALID 202338Z - 210115Z THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH CNTRL AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN IA THIS EVENING. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF SRN IA AND POSSIBLY INTO A SMALL PART OF ERN NEB WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SQUALL LINE CONTINUES MOVING SWD THROUGH NRN IA AT AROUND 30 KT. AT ITS CURRENT SPEED THE LINE WILL APPROACH SRN END OF WW 506 BY 0030Z. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE FROM S CNTRL THROUGH SWRN IA INTO ERN NEB WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500-3500 J/KG. STRONGEST CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE OVER N CNTRL IA WHERE THE COLD POOL IS WELL DEVELOPED AND THE LINE IS SURGING MORE RAPIDLY SWD. DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MORE LIMITED ALONG THE WRN FLANKS OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE IS WEAKER. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES SHOW CUMULUS INCREASING OVER SERN SD INTO NERN NEB...AND SOME WWD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42729689 42499475 42509344 42599246 41049289 40969490 41769655 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 23:51:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 18:51:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506210002.j5L022dq020801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210000 ORZ000-WAZ000-210200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OREGON / SWRN WA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210000Z - 210200Z A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU OVER THE OREGON CASCADES AS WELL AS OVER SRN WA CASCADES. INSTABILITY FIELDS ALONG AND E OF THE MTNS ARE WEAK WITH MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG. ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE MTNS...DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE A BIT HIGHER AND IN THE 50S. INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS IS STRONGER BUT COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WEAK FORCING DUE MAINLY TO UPSLOPE/TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER N CENTRAL OREGON WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE IS MAXIMIZED. STRONG WIND FIELDS IN PLACE ALONG WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT FORECAST STORM MOTIONS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A WLY COMPONENT IF ANY...CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER W OF THE CASCADES APPEARS TO BE LOW. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS THAT MOVE WWD OFF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED ABOVE THE COOLER AIR MASS BELOW AND MAY WEAKEN. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR... 44721852 43712154 43822199 45082223 46642229 47472204 47582091 45521831 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 02:02:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 21:02:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506210213.j5L2DPUS015521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210212 MTZ000-210415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1408 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0912 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507... VALID 210212Z - 210415Z ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH N CNTRL MT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING OCCURRED OVER THIS AREA TODAY WITH MLCAPES 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS IN THIS REGION WITH 50+ KT IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE STORM INITIATION. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM THE RUC SUGGESTS A VORT MAX IS MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO WRN MT. MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME ANCHORED IN THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER E OF HIGHER TERRAIN...THEY SHOULD BECOME SEVERE WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. SOME STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO BOW ECHOES AS THEY SPREAD EWD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47010628 46750978 46681226 47951260 48831123 48970653 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 02:50:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 21:50:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506210301.j5L311Jo003957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210300 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-210400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1409 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...SWRN MN...ERN NB AND WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506... VALID 210300Z - 210400Z WRN PORTIONS OF WW 507 THAT COVERS A PART OF NERN NEB...SERN SD AND NWRN IA WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED THROUGH 05Z. THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS IN THIS GENERAL AREA. LATE THIS EVENING A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN IA NWWD THROUGH NERN NEB...SERN SD AND THEN NEWD INTO SWRN MN. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME SRN SD NWWD INTO SWRN MN WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE IN THE VICINITY OF AND W OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. THIS AREA IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITH NWLY 30 KT AT 5 KM ABOVE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THIS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY SWWD WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS WITH SWD EXTENT INTO NEB...AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN W OF THIS AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THESE LIMITING FACTORS AND A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MUCH FARTHER SWD INTO NEB. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 42659526 41499728 42219863 43849916 44079829 45199524 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 03:51:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 22:51:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506210402.j5L42dav031010@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210402 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210401 NDZ000-MTZ000-210500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1410 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MT THROUGH WRN ND. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507... VALID 210401Z - 210500Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507 WILL BE REPLACED SOON BY ANOTHER WW THAT WILL INCLUDE CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT INTO WRN ND. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS LATER TONIGHT AND SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OVER CNTRL AND NE MT. STORMS MAY REMAIN ISOLATED FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN MT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT IN THIS REGION AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS. SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND SPREAD ESEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH ERN MT AND INTO WRN ND. STRONG MUCAPE AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND EVENTUALLY BOW ECHOES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND LIKELY. ..DIAL.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 46200359 46420659 46460938 47241025 48090930 48880657 48690348 47350259 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 07:48:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 02:48:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506210759.j5L7xEbl021464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210758 NDZ000-MTZ000-210930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT / NWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508... VALID 210758Z - 210930Z CLUSTER OF STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF MT TOWARD NWRN ND ATTM. COMBINATION OF MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SELY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO FUEL PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPROACHING THE NERN MT / NWRN ND BORDER ATTM. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT WLY WINDS AT MID LEVELS AND FAVORABLE SELY INFLOW...STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ORGANIZED / PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED NW-SE FROM ERN MT INTO WRN SD. WITH INCREASINGLY-LESS UNSTABLE AIR WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS NWRN ND...WOULD EXPECT NERN-MOST STORMS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...THUS POSSIBLY PROMOTING AN EFFECTIVE TURN OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION TOWARD THE SE WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... 48110538 48540323 48360223 47840200 47060220 46560262 46510326 47230479 47640536 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 08:41:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 03:41:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506210852.j5L8qZfI012786@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210850 SDZ000-NDZ000-211015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1412 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL ND / N CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210850Z - 211015Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 508...AND SHOULD SPREAD SEWD WITH TIME. NEW WW ISSUANCE ANTICIPATED. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BOW ECHO EVOLVING ACROSS NWRN ND ATTM...WHERE SELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS INDICATED. THOUGH INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT INTO CENTRAL ND...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE A SEWD TURN WITH TIME INTO LOW LEVEL JET / ALONG GRADIENT OF NW-SE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN MT / WRN SD. WITH COLD POOL BECOMING INCREASINGLY-WELL DEVELOPED AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 47680274 48330193 47460041 46379934 44950021 45030165 46040288 46700324 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 11:22:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 06:22:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506211133.j5LBXBIU013264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211132 NDZ000-SDZ000-211300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1413 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S CENTRAL ND / NWRN INTO CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509... VALID 211132Z - 211300Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WW...AND APPEARS TO BE INCREASING S OF WW. NEW WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED INTO PARTS OF NWRN / CENTRAL SD. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NRN PORTION OF BOW ECHO WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL ND. MEANWHILE...UPDRAFTS REMAIN INTENSE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF LINE / ACROSS SWRN ND...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE SE APPARENT OVER THE PAST HOUR. WITH GRADIENT ALONG NERN PORTIONS OF INSTABILITY AXIS EVIDENT ACROSS NWRN AND INTO CENTRAL SD AND SELY LOW-LEVEL JET PERSISTING ACROSS THIS AREA...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE / MOVE SSEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO NWRN AND N CENTRAL SD. WITH STORMS LIKELY TO REMAIN LINEARLY ORGANIZED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46420313 46780192 47330111 46919968 46429903 44659871 43969934 43940074 45330366 46480372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 16:06:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 11:06:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506211617.j5LGHdeT028274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211616 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211615 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-211815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1414 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ALABAMA EWD TO SOUTH CAROLINA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211615Z - 211815Z COOL UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WEAK UPPER LOW SWRN VA SWWD ACROSS NRN GA INTO CENTRAL AL. HEATING OF THE MOIST AIR MASS S AND E OF SRN APPALACHIANS WILL QUICKLY ELIMINATE ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AND RELATIVELY COOL LAPSE RATES...HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE OVERALL SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE HAIL EVENTS AND BRIEF STRONG DOWNBURST. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR WATCH ISSUANCE. ..HALES.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN... 34008641 34338553 34308489 34348446 34568240 35008191 34988047 34748003 34217990 33438012 32658086 32158224 32098498 32638628 33238670 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 18:34:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 13:34:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506211845.j5LIj4Vx025130@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211844 COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-212045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1415 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 211844Z - 212045Z STRONG HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO MID/UPPER 80S ALONG WITH MUCAPES TO 1500 J/KG ALONG FRONT RANGE SUPPORTING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ALSO WWD MOVING BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM VICINITY OF DEN SSEWD TO ERN EL PASO COUNTY IS LEADING EDGE OF A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AS THIS WWD MOVING AIRMASS REACHES FRONT RANGE THE NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A FEW STORMS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH ALSO LOCAL DOWNBURSTS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ..HALES.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 40820539 41270501 41250418 40800350 40380332 39500310 38780326 37910347 37750393 37800432 37780504 39560535 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 19:17:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 14:17:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506211928.j5LJSPwx020363@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211927 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211927 NDZ000-MTZ000-212130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MONTANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211927Z - 212130Z WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR. SELY FLOW IS SPREADING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD ACROSS NRN MT WITH 60 DEWPOINTS HAVING REACHED AS FAR W AS CTB AND GTF. WITH THE STRONG HEATING AS RIDGE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH FROM PAC NW...THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG. WHILE THE EFFECTS OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AN INFLUENCE ON THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO UNTIL LATER...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A SEVERE STORM HAS ALREADY FORMED JUST N OF NERN MT BORDER...LIKELY ON NWD MOVING WARM FRONT. THE MT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WITH 40-50 KTS OF SHEAR ALONG WITH A VEERING PROFILE...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY AS STORMS MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE PLAINS OF NRN MT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL INITIALLY BE VERY LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF THERMODYNAMICS ALONG WITH THE 50KT SHEAR SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASING THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO POSSIBLE BOW/SHORT LINES SEGMENTS. ..HALES.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... 48961326 48981116 48970983 49000807 48980402 46750413 46490714 46370898 46491030 46511220 47561282 48501318 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 20:19:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 15:19:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506212030.j5LKUXD6026042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212029 AZZ000-212300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1417 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 212029Z - 212300Z STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME ACROSS ARIZONA SETTING THE STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF VERY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON 18Z PHX SOUNDING AND T/TD SPREADS OF 60F DEGREES AT THE SURFACE...STRONG/SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE HOT DESERT VALLEYS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS VICINITY OF TUS SHOULD PROPAGATE NWWD INTO DESERT VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY AFFECT AS FAR N AS SALT RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. ..HALES.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 34931360 34731263 34341157 33931087 32951029 32340998 31361009 31421139 32431272 33291367 34301380 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 22:20:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 17:20:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506212230.j5LMUhNm029213@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212229 KSZ000-220000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1418 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 212229Z - 220000Z A THREAT MAY EXIST FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...OVER THE NEW FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KS. WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES REMNANT MCV MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS FAR NCNTRL/NE KS. AMBIENT/DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS ECNTRL KS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE/ONLY WEAKLY INHIBITED PER MODIFIED 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS INCREASE EXHIBITED IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. FAIRBURY NEB PROFILER COUPLED WITH TOPEKA WSR-88D VAD DEPICTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS. IN SPITE OF THIS WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...LIMITED ORGANIZATION OF MCV AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT A FEW PULSE-TYPE STRONG WIND GUST/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EPISODES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 39539890 39749814 39349585 38229577 37839618 37619705 38009844 38299873 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 23:28:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 18:28:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506212338.j5LNch56027592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212337 MTZ000-220130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510... VALID 212337Z - 220130Z DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS MOVING NEWD THROUGH NWRN MT AND EVENTUALLY N CNTRL MT MUCH OF THE EVENING. EARLY THIS EVENING A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN MT NWWD THROUGH NWRN MT E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXISTS N OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TO ITS S. FLOW IN THE 850MB TO 700 MB LAYER IS FORECAST TO VEER AND STRENGTHEN OVER WRN MT LATER THIS EVENING...ENHANCING THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. THE INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE SW...AND THIS MAY ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. ..DIAL.. 06/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... 46130927 46041130 46291349 48761407 48870953 47610879 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 00:22:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 19:22:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506220033.j5M0X4Tc018360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220032 MTZ000-220200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 220032Z - 220200Z STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD TOWARD ERN MT. SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AS THE STORMS CONTINUE NEWD. PORTIONS OF ERN MT ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAVE ADVECTED INTO ERN MT N OF A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN THROUGH ERN MT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THE 00Z RAOB FROM GLASGOW SHOWS AROUND 4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WEAK CAP AND 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SUGGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ERN MT. WARM ADVECTION IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER ERN MT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND STRENGTHENS...WHICH MIGHT PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE STORMS. A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MID-LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...ONCE STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED AS SUPERCELLS AND OR BOW ECHOES...THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE DESPITE THE INCREASING INHIBITION. ..DIAL.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 45610546 46140680 46590838 48200893 48870807 48320620 46950476 45940464 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 03:23:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 22:23:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506220333.j5M3Xga8030870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220332 MTZ000-220430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH N CNTRL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510... VALID 220332Z - 220430Z THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MIGHT PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS FROM SWRN THROUGH N CNTRL MT. OVERALL DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER WW. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN MT THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AND STRENGTHEN OVER WRN MT IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED STORMS MIGHT REMAIN SEVERE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND THE EXPIRATION OF WW 510. HOWEVER...INCREASING DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL AND COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR A LONGER TERMED SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO... 47321018 46021288 48321380 48891209 48710947 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 04:17:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 23:17:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506220427.j5M4RgLP018289@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220427 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220426 MTZ000-220530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1422 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511... VALID 220426Z - 220530Z POTENTIAL FOR NEW SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE ON THE DECREASE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...AND WW 511 MIGHT BE CANCELED EARLY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC AND ETA SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNDERGOING SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AND WARMING ABOVE THE SURFACE...INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE 1 TO 3 KM LAYER. THIS AND COOLING NEAR THE SURFACE IS RESULTING IN STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. GIVEN THE RAPID DEMISE OF EARLIER STORMS OVER SERN MT AS THEY MOVED INTO STRONG INSTABILITY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES INDEED APPEAR TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED. MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH WRN MT MIGHT SPREAD INTO NERN MT LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE APPARENT STRONG CAP IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE THAT NEW BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP IS NOT HIGH. ..DIAL.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 46290433 46150620 46250836 48770875 49040680 48830443 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 07:06:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 02:06:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506220716.j5M7GmLD015774@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220715 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-220815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT / WRN ND / NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511... VALID 220715Z - 220815Z STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS WW...AND WITH WATCH SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 21/08Z...NEW WW NOT EXPECTED ATTM AS A RESULT. MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS ERN MT ATTM...WHERE SLY / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAVORABLY STRONG...AND UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING NEWD ACROSS WRN MT BASED ON LATEST WV IMAGERY AND MODEL FORECASTS. DESPITE THESE FACTORS...STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO INITIATE ACROSS WW AREA THIS EVENING. NEW STORM HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ROSEBUD COUNTY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO -- AND BRIEFLY PULSED IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...STORM HAS SINCE WEAKENED...AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS INDICATED ELSEWHERE. SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION...THOUGH CLEARLY STORMS ARE BEING SUPPRESSED -- POSSIBLY DUE TO CAPPING / DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE AS INDICATED BY NAM / RUC PFCS. ATTM...WILL OPT TO ALLOW WW TO EXPIRE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR NEW SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH -- WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW REISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 49030897 48960227 44770308 45760854 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 19:10:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 14:10:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506221921.j5MJLSXG016143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221920 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221920 NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-222115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NJ/CT/SE PA/MD/DE/SE NY AND NYC METRO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221920Z - 222115Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INTO THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY INTENSIFY ACROSS SE PA INTO SRN NJ AND DELMARVA REGION THROUGH 21Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA FEATURES STORM CLUSTERS SPREADING SEWD ACROSS WRN CT/NRN NJ ATTM...WHICH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GREATER NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGESTS AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE AMIDST AMBIENT WARM/RELATIVELY WELL MIXED AIRMASS. IN SPITE OF THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODEST PER LOCAL WSR-88D VADS AS DEPICTED BY 15-20 KTS OF NLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW KM/S. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION GIVEN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AND SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE...IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE PA INTO SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH 21Z. OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MARGINAL/ISOLD SUCH THAT A SEVERE WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 41367469 41527294 40937267 39797448 39127605 39407833 40367833 40967726 41177616 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 19:58:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 14:58:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506222009.j5MK9WtH016660@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222008 NCZ000-VAZ000-222215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1425 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...VA/NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222008Z - 222215Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN VA INTO NC. A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION OF VA/NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS IN ACCORDANCE WITH MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS SUGGESTS AMBIENT AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG. IN SPITE OF ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /20-25 KTS OR LESS/ AMIDST LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. OWING TO MID 80S TO LOW 90S F SFC TEMPS...WELL-MIXED AIRMASS/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NEVERTHELESS SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... 38547865 38247708 35727666 35227737 35187905 35798037 36558044 37727990 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 20:41:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 15:41:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506222052.j5MKqRU6010846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222050 MTZ000-222245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222050Z - 222245Z WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR STRONG HEATING HAS ELIMINATED CAP ACROSS SWRN MT AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER HIGH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F...MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG... STORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE NEWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH 40-50 KT OF SWLY SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT WITH STORMS AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ..HALES.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... 46251279 47101287 47851193 48221138 48840948 48840775 46670647 45670879 45410982 45471156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 21:25:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 16:25:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506222136.j5MLZp9m004328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222134 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-222330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0434 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN MO/WCNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222134Z - 222330Z CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ANY ISOLD DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN MO AND PERHAPS WCNTRL IL. GIVEN EXPECTED RATHER ISOLD NATURE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONTINUING TO MONITOR GRADUALLY EVOLVING/DEEPENING CU FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN MO/WCNTRL IL...WITH ONE ISOLD STORM HAVING ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SE IA INTO IOWA AND KEOKUK COUNTIES AS OF 2115Z. AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG/WEST OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE AIRMASS IS HOT/MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE. RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR 21Z AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG -- HIGHEST ACROSS IA -- AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CONV INHIBITION. LATHROP MO/SLATER IA PROFILERS SUGGESTS APPROX 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY/WEAK INHIBITION AND ADEQUATE ORGANIZATIONAL SHEAR...PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE/WEAK BACKGROUND DYNAMIC ASCENT SHOULD KEEP DEVELOPMENT RATHER ISOLD IN NATURE. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 41959500 42419370 42529207 42069153 40559046 38989114 39729399 40939475 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 22:24:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 17:24:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506222234.j5MMYfCE032563@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222233 WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-222330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1428 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN ID AND FAR NRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222233Z - 222330Z ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD INTO SRN/ERN ID AND FAR NRN UT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ID /TWIN FALLS COUNTY/ SEWD TO NWRN UT /BOX ELDER COUNTY/. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH HAD BEEN REPORTED EARLIER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN/ERN ID INTO NRN UT SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH MLCAPE DOES RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH ONGOING LINE OF STORMS MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD INTO SRN/ ERN ID AND FAR NRN UT THROUGH 23/02Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 45 DEGREES SUGGEST FURTHER ENHANCEMENT TO DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... 42251465 42561482 43621387 44191251 44251152 44201108 42621103 42011122 41451268 41051373 41901403 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 01:48:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 20:48:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506230159.j5N1xL9B021638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230158 NDZ000-MTZ000-230300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT INTO PORTIONS OF WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512... VALID 230158Z - 230300Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 512 THIS EVENING. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE EAST OF 512 INTO PORTIONS OF ERN MT AND WRN ND. 01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SWRN SASKATCHEWAN SWWD TO SWRN MT AND SRN ID...WHILE REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN WW 512 WERE NORTH OF A LINE FROM JUST S OF GTF TO MLS. AIR MASS NORTH OF THIS LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY OBSERVED EWD INTO ND. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MT AND MAY SPREAD INTO WRN ND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE THREAT IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ENEWD OVER THIS REGION AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD FROM ID AND A SECOND TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL INTO NERN MT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..PETERS.. 06/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... 45501311 49011012 48980125 48720084 47630114 46440297 46130481 45480762 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 03:37:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 22:37:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506230348.j5N3m6oB002696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230347 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230347 NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-230445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512... VALID 230347Z - 230445Z THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NERN MT THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING IS RESULTING IN A SLOW STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NERN MT TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL BE GREATEST INTO NERN MT WHERE AN ORGANIZED BOW STRUCTURE WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS PER REGIONAL RADARS EXTENDED FROM NRN PHILLIPS COUNTY TO NWRN VALLEY COUNTY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS BOW WILL REACH THE NERN MT/CANADA BORDER IN DANIEL AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES AROUND 0630Z. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS STORMS OVER THIS REGION MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A NEW WW SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED TO THE EAST OF WW 512. ..PETERS.. 06/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 45481095 46581135 47321156 48981003 48970415 48920372 47300428 46400638 45000721 44991049 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 19:04:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 14:04:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506231915.j5NJFRsi032542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231913 MNZ000-NDZ000-232015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231913Z - 232015Z ...WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND INTO MN... BROAD BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS ND AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS ROOTED ABOVE FAIRLY STRONG CAP THAT IS ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...AND MID LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED FROM WELLS COUNTY ND INTO RAMSEY COUNTY ND...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...YET IT/S NOT APPARENT WHETHER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AIDING THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE OCCURRING...LOCAL WEAKENING OF CAP INVOF THIS CONVECTION MAY ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE UPDRAFTS. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIALLY MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AS LOWER-MID 70S SFC DEW POINTS ARE OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM. ..DARROW.. 06/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48979542 47419639 46749816 47509946 48879844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 20:38:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 15:38:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506232049.j5NKn9bY018948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232048 WYZ000-MTZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MT...NRN/CNTRL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232048Z - 232245Z ...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS... SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN MT INTO NWRN WY. THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING ENEWD WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...NEAR DRY ADIABATIC...TOWARD THE LOWER PLAINS REGION OF NERN WY. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SURVIVE WITHIN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM. AS A RESULT...STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD GENERATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ..DARROW.. 06/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW... 45820831 44710606 42810619 42970840 45251085 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 20:40:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 15:40:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506232051.j5NKpA0Z019920@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232050 NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AZ INTO UT/WRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232050Z - 232245Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR ISOLD DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL AZ...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN AZ/UT/WRN CO. 12Z FGZ RAOB MODIFIED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 1000-1300 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE REGION...WHILE FLAGSTAFF WSR-88D VAD PORTRAYS 20-25 KTS OF SWLY FLOW ABOVE 3 KM. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...ISOLD SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS GIVEN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ..GUYER.. 06/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...VEF... 34371226 36311375 38901367 40021085 39410738 37130690 35410851 33770925 33901081 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 23:02:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 18:02:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506232312.j5NNCqsG028414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232311 MNZ000-NDZ000-240015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN ND INTO NRN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 513... VALID 232311Z - 240015Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR THE REST OF NRN MN. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ALONG WITH HAIL AS A STORM CLUSTER ALONG THE ERN ND/MN BORDER AREA AND FURTHER N OVER NRN MN MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MN. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY WITH BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH AN AREA OF PRONOUNCED DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS ERN ND ATTM. AIR MASS OVER ERN ND AND NRN MN REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...BUT WEAKEST CINH PER OBJECTIVE DATA IS LOCATED ALONG THE NRN TIER OF MN COUNTIES WITH THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A GUST FRONT EXTENDED 10-15 MILES ESEWD AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW LOCATED FROM TRAILL COUNTY ND TO PENNINGTON COUNTY MN. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER ROSEAU AND LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES IN NRN MN. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO NRN-NERN MN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS /70+ F/ AND STRONG LOW- LEVEL SHEAR DOWNSTREAM OVER NRN MN PER DLH VAD SUGGESTS THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. ..PETERS.. 06/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 46849768 48869630 49329490 48659261 48139168 47139268 46679437 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 00:42:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 19:42:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506240053.j5O0rWu1004755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240052 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-240215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1436 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/WCNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514... VALID 240052Z - 240215Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE WATCH 514 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z. ISOLD DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF WW 514...NAMELY ACROSS WRN/WCNTRL NEB. 00Z LBF RAOB DEPICTS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG AMIDST DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO 700 MB...WITH 1500+ J/KG DCAPE AND CORRESPONDING STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER LIMITED VERTICAL SHEAR /25 KTS OR LESS PER RED WILLOW NEB PROFILER/ HAS LEAD TO PROPENSITY FOR STORMS TO CLUSTER. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE WANING ACROSS FAR SW NEB/NW KS. FURTHER NORTH...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW 514 EITHER VIA MODEST CONVERGENCE INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...OR PERHAPS AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES LATER THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU... 42610198 42990048 42999876 40439932 39529997 39740126 40490188 41140248 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 01:08:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 20:08:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506240118.j5O1IYE0015126@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240117 MNZ000-WIZ000-240215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1437 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0817 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 513...515... VALID 240117Z - 240215Z STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE A LIKELY THREAT ACROSS KOOCHICHING COUNTY AND EWD INTO NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY THROUGH 02Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A BOW STRUCTURE EXTENDING FROM ERN KOOCHICHING COUNTY SWWD TO NWRN ITASCA COUNTY AND MOVING TO THE ENE AT 45-55 KT. GIVEN THIS FORWARD SPEED...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY EWD ACROSS NERN MN...ESPECIALLY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY THROUGH 02Z. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NWRN MN FROM BELTRAMI TO BECKER COUNTIES /SERN WW 513/...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENEWD INTO W/SW PORTION OF WW 515 DURING THE NEXT HOUR...WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL. ..PETERS.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 48779505 48799103 48178980 47958961 46969097 46399100 46349472 46519591 47449581 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 04:32:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 23:32:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506240443.j5O4hAvM027213@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240442 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240442 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-240545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TO NERN NEB/SRN-SERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514... VALID 240442Z - 240545Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN VALID PORTION OF WW 514 UNTIL 06Z...THOUGH GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NRN-NERN NEB/SRN-SERN SD OVERNIGHT. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT...IF STORM INTENSITY WITH THIS NEW ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN SD SWWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EARLIER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SWRN NEB WAS TRACKING N/NE INTO CENTRAL NEB. VWP DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INDICATED A 40 KT SLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB. WV IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWED ONE OR TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND SRN SD PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THE CURRENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS NEW CONVECTION WAS LOCATED ALONG/N OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE GIVEN FAVORABLE WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF LLJ. MODERATELY UNSTABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD... 40379921 40300041 41150147 41240202 41150256 42990199 43440059 44539901 44719740 44599589 43569511 42159569 41409831 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 15:28:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 10:28:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506241539.j5OFdwpe018225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241539 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241539 MIZ000-WIZ000-241715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1440 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF WI....NRN LOWER MI AND THE U.P. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516... VALID 241539Z - 241715Z ...ISOLATED STRONG STORM WEAKENING IN NRN WI...WHILE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS... A LONG LIVED SEVERE STORM MOVED THROUGH NRN WI THIS MORNING...BUT HAD WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST HOUR AS IT APPROACHES FOREST COUNTY IN NRN WI. DESPITE THE CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS WI... THIS STORM HAD BEEN ABLE TO FORCE PARCELS THROUGH INVERSION... THOUGH THIS PROCESS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURE WARM TOWARD 90 DEGREES THE INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACED BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE NRN WI STORM...WHERE A CLOUD FREE ENVIRONMENT IS ALLOWING FOR INTENSE HEATING AND MLCAPE VALUES TO CLIMB NEAR 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL BE HAIL...BUT THE WIND THREAT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..IMY.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX... 44369081 44708964 45828920 46158859 46488775 46458691 45648660 44528775 43899087 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 17:44:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 12:44:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506241756.j5OHu3Td004176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241754 MIZ000-WIZ000-241900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1441 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WI...NRN LOWER MI AND THE U.P. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516... VALID 241754Z - 241900Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WI...NRN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER MI PENINSULA UNTIL 22Z. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MI PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN WRN WI AT 17Z...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE FRONT. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES HAS REDUCED THE THREAT FOR SEVERE ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP IN ERN WI ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE SURFACE BASED CU ATTM...SO CAP IS STILL IN PLACE DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. THE CAP IS WEAKER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN... WHICH HAS ALLOWED CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MLCAPES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD AID IN THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE AS THEY SPREAD ENEWD. ..IMY.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...ARX... 46198712 46688607 46858493 46728403 44888408 44428771 43939077 44239092 44538942 45258791 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 18:54:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 13:54:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506241906.j5OJ6KV3011290@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241906 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241905 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-MTZ000-242030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/ERN WY...SCENTRAL/SERN MT...SWRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241905Z - 242030Z ISO-SCT SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SEVERAL BOUNDARIES AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER ERN/NCENTRAL WY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT THAT A WW IS ANTICIPATED BY 20Z. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER ERN/NCENTRAL WY FROM JUST WEST OF CYS TO NEAR DGW. ADDITIONAL CU HAS BEGUN TO FORM ALONG STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE NWWD INTO NERN WY/SERN MT. MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...RELATIVELY HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION...LCL/S GENERALLY OVER 1200 M...SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. CONVECTION OVER NERN/SWRN SD WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A SEWD MOTION TO SUPPORT GREATEST SVR THREAT AS AIRMASS OVER WCENTRAL SD REMAINS COOL/STABLE. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 41010512 42080613 43820841 44010896 45060905 45660807 45640639 45420570 44380415 43990371 42830268 41720287 41120309 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 19:09:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 14:09:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506241920.j5OJKcGI019063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241920 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241919 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-242045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED....IA...NWRN IL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241919Z - 242045Z SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS IN THE IOWA AREA. WW WILL BE REQUIRED ONCE IT BECOMES EVIDENT THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE CLOSE TO DEVELOPING. AT 19Z...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NRN WI SWWD INTO EXTREME SERN MN AND NWRN IA AT 18Z. CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN STRONG HEATING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. OMA 18Z SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 800 MB...BUT THE CAP WAS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER ON THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING. SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN NRN NEB SHIFTING ENEWD TOWARD NWRN IA. LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE PLUS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND NON-CLOUDY AREAS SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE 20-22Z TIME PERIOD WHERE THE CAP APPEARS TO BE WEAK. ALSO...CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ABOUT 30-50 MI NORTH OF DSM. GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF IA...STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IA AND THEN SPREAD ESEWD. ..IMY.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42359586 43059402 43669201 43839023 43438945 42578935 41579022 40999125 40819169 40849331 40869484 41119556 41769635 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 19:29:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 14:29:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506241941.j5OJf1EU031554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241940 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241940 MIZ000-WIZ000-242015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1445 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WI...NRN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516... VALID 241940Z - 242015Z THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE LESSENING ACROSS WW AREA AND COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD ACROSS WI AND THE WRN PORTION OF THE UPPER MI PENINSULA. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS WEAK AS WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. ACROSS NRN MI...THE ALPENA 18Z SOUNDING SHOWED THE LOW LEVELS HAD DRIED OUT AND THE SOUNDING WAS CAPPED. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WW 516 ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA AND SWRN WI AND NORTHEAST IN SWRN ONTARIO...SO WW 516 MAY BE CANCELED SHORTLY. ..IMY.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...ARX... 44468946 46298638 46748406 44838402 43989009 43929099 44309100 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 20:51:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 15:51:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506242103.j5OL3BYV012552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242102 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-242230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1446 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NCENTRAL KS...SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242102Z - 242230Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH MAIN THREATS BEING DMMG WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/TROUGH ACROSS SWRN NEB SWWD INTO WCENTRAL KS/ECENTRAL CO WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. STRENGTHENING TRENDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG/ AND LITTLE CINH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND THUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE. GIVEN HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 40430027 40450151 39730216 38560189 38230179 38200077 38819926 39299886 40159946 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 22:05:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 17:05:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506242216.j5OMGXvX016079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242215 NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-242345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SCENTRAL/SERN MT...NEB PANHANDLE/FAR SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517... VALID 242215Z - 242345Z THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE WW AREA FOR THE 2 HOURS. A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF WRN NEB/SWRN SD IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS NWWD FROM WCENTRAL NEB INTO NCENTRAL/NERN WY...SERN/SCENTRAL MT. CONVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN THE DRIER AIR OVER NWRN WY/SWRN MT SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER ERN WY/SCENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. FARTHER SE...SVR STORMS OVER SERN/ECENTRAL WY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SVR AS THEY MOVE OUT OF WW 517 INTO WRN NEBRASKA/FAR SWRN SD OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND MOVE INTO THETA-E RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A NEW WW MAY BE OVER THIS AREA EAST OF WW 517 BY 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 41020700 45770911 45720478 43630281 41010021 41010128 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 22:11:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 17:11:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506242222.j5OMMxYV018499@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242222 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-242245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI AND IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518... VALID 242222Z - 242245Z NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE REST OF SRN WI. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR GRB SWWD TO SWRN WI AND CENTRAL IA. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...SUFFICIENT SHEAR APPEARS TO EXIST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 518...AND LIKELY EWD INTO THE REST OF SRN WI. ..PETERS.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... 40529521 42549523 44258974 44558797 44298754 42498782 42208980 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 22:16:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 17:16:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506242227.j5OMRfus020629@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242215 NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-242345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SCENTRAL/SERN MT...NEB PANHANDLE/FAR SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517... VALID 242215Z - 242345Z THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE WW AREA FOR THE 2 HOURS. A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF WRN NEB/SWRN SD IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS NWWD FROM WCENTRAL NEB INTO NCENTRAL/NERN WY...SERN/SCENTRAL MT. CONVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN THE DRIER AIR OVER NWRN WY/SWRN MT SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER ERN WY/SCENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. FARTHER SE...SVR STORMS OVER SERN/ECENTRAL WY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SVR AS THEY MOVE OUT OF WW 517 INTO WRN NEBRASKA/FAR SWRN SD OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND MOVE INTO THETA-E RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A NEW WW MAY BE OVER THIS AREA EAST OF WW 517 BY 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 41020700 45770911 45720478 43630281 41010021 41010128  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 22:21:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 17:21:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506242232.j5OMWmvZ022508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242222 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-242245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI AND IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518... VALID 242222Z - 242245Z NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE REST OF SRN WI. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR GRB SWWD TO SWRN WI AND CENTRAL IA. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...SUFFICIENT SHEAR APPEARS TO EXIST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 518...AND LIKELY EWD INTO THE REST OF SRN WI. ..PETERS.. 06/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... 40529521 42549523 44258974 44558797 44298754 42498782 42208980  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 00:11:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 19:11:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250023.j5P0N8aF029600@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250022 MIZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1449 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250022Z - 250045Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NRN LAKE MI SWD ALONG THE LAKE AND THEN INLAND OVER SERN WI /25 NW MKE/. MUCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG WAS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI. LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /ABOVE 650 MB/ WILL RESULT IN SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF MID LEVEL JET TO THE NORTH AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI. ..PETERS.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45878502 45688386 45328351 44408341 43418392 43088494 43058630 43788662 44838632 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 00:21:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 19:21:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250033.j5P0XM9r000652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250032 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-250200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1450 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NCENTRAL WY...SCENTRAL/SERN MT...WRN SD...WRN NEB AND FAR NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517...520... VALID 250032Z - 250200Z THREAT FOR SVR WILL BE MOST FOCUSED OVER FAR ERN/NRN PORTIONS OF WW 517 INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 520 THROUGH 02Z. OVERALL THREAT OVER WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF WW 517 APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT AREA WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED IN UPCOMING STATUS MESSAGES. ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF SVR STORMS EXTENDING FROM SERN MT SEWD INTO WRN NEB/FAR NERN CO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EWD FROM 15-20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO THE WRN PORTION OF WW 520. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER ERN WY...BUT AMT OF CIRRUS CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING MUCH OF ERN WY SUGGEST THAT SVR THREAT WAS DIMINISHING IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH...SVR TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE OVER NCENTRAL WY/SCENTRAL MT. WITH THICK CIRRUS SHIELD OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA PRESENTLY...STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DELAYED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REMOVAL FROM WW 517 PRIOR TO WW EXPIRATION TIME /03Z/ IF LACK OF SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES BEYOND 02Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 41040579 42410623 43520674 44360785 44770862 45800904 45790485 45890195 40430022 40360274 41000316 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 01:14:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 20:14:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250125.j5P1PobD020290@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250125 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250125 WIZ000-ILZ000-250230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0825 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 519... VALID 250125Z - 250230Z SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SERN WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A WIND GUST. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A STORM OVER SRN OZAUKEE AND NRN MILWAUKEE COUNTIES IN SERN WI...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAKENING STORMS APPROACHING THE WRN PORTION OF WW 519 FROM SWRN WI. THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED...GIVEN THAT THE GUST FRONT FROM EARLIER STORMS HAS MOVED SWD INTO FAR SERN WI AND FAR NWRN IL. LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE THE AIR MASS ACROSS SERN WI. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS OVER NERN IA/SWRN WI TRACK EWD THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..PETERS.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43868974 43948771 42488773 42378976 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 01:32:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 20:32:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250143.j5P1hnqY027201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250143 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250142 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1452 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0842 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/FAR SERN SD/MUCH OF IA/SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518... VALID 250142Z - 250215Z NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR ERN NEB/FAR SERN SD EWD ACROSS NRN IA. THIS NEW WW WOULD LIKELY REPLACE MUCH OF WW 518. 01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATED STORMS OVER CENTRAL IA MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...GIVEN THAT THEY ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WAS TRACKING SWD THROUGH CENTRAL IA NEAR THE DSM AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NWRN TO NERN IA APPEAR TO BE ALONG/N OF THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER NWRN IA BEING AIDED BY STRENGTHENING LLJ NOSING INTO ERN NEB. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER ERN NEB INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TO NRN IA OVERNIGHT AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST BY SHORT TERM MODELS. MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 35-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..PETERS.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 44238980 42198975 40529521 40619664 41849837 42999859 43459757 43609365 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 03:21:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 22:21:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250332.j5P3WolU002052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250328 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-250530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1453 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / SWRN ND / EXTREME NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250328Z - 250530Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING...BUT AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT EXPECTED. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH 30-35 KT SELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE LIFT ALONG WARM FRONT FROM SERN MT INTO SWRN ND / NWRN SD THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WHILE AIR MASS NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS STABLE...ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS OF 10-12 G/KG OBSERVED ON RAP SOUNDING INDICATE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WITHIN INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NWD. MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT AND RESULTANT 50-60 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS SUGGEST ELEVATED SEVERE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF WARM FRONT ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE STABLE. ..JEWELL.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 47700222 46270198 45650374 45370808 45800847 46850814 47230599 48030398  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 03:58:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 22:58:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250409.j5P49oLp015980@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250409 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250408 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-250515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1454 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD AND WRN//CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 520... VALID 250408Z - 250515Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL NEB BY 05Z. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM SWRN SD TO SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AND THEN ENEWD TO IA. WELL DEFINED BOW STRUCTURE INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADARS EXTENDED FROM SWRN BENNETT COUNTY SD TO NRN BOX BUTTE COUNTY NEB...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO WRN/CENTRAL NEB. 45-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ALSO AID IN MAINTAINING STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FARTHER N ACROSS WRN SD...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH GIVEN INFLOW OF A MORE STABLE AIR MASS INTO THIS AREA. ..PETERS.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ... 45950505 45920211 43120086 42799936 40999930 40870022 40430024 40360280 40480329 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 04:53:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 23:53:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250505.j5P551Ae002681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250504 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250504 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1455 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL IA/NRN AND ERN NEB/SE SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521... VALID 250504Z - 250630Z HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS NRN IA...IN AN AREA 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM SUX TO BREMER COUNTY IA. 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL IA INTO SRN NEB. WAA ALONG NOSE OF 35 KT SSWLY LLJ PER VWP DATA POINTING INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS NERN-ERN NEB/FAR SERN SD AND WRN IA OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INFLOW OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN EWD ACROSS NRN IA...WITH 1.3 TO 1.75 PW VALUES SUPPORTING AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. ..PETERS.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41019919 42799916 43619230 41719231 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 06:58:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 01:58:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250709.j5P79fM5015204@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250708 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-250815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1456 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL KS AND S CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522... VALID 250708Z - 250815Z THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE REMAINING PARTS OF WW 522 DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY GOOD. WW 522 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED SOON. EARLY THIS MORNING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL IA SWWD THROUGH S CNTRL NEB INTO NWRN KS. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY ZONE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PERSIST FROM WRN NEB EWD THROUGH IA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ENHANCING LIFT N OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH PRIMARY ZONE OF LIFT REMAINING N OF WW 522 AND PRESENCE OF ONLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER S CNTRL NEB AND N CNTRL KS APPEARS LOW. ..DIAL.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...BOU... 41839478 41269757 40630083 40930266 41870183 42689512 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 08:12:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 03:12:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506250823.j5P8NuNf011118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250823 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1457 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB THROUGH CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521... VALID 250823Z - 250900Z THE PRIMARY THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED TO HEAVY RAIN FROM NERN NEB THROUGH CNTRL IA. WW 521 WILL BE CANCELLED AT 0845Z. A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING...MAINTAINING LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION N OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL IA SWWD THROUGH SERN NEB INTO NWRN KS. LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW 521. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT. HOWEVER...THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME BACKBUILDING ALONG THE SWRN FLANKS OF THE MCS OVER IA...AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN EWD WITH SLOW SWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD POOL. RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN LIKELY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..DIAL.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 42029389 41249826 42069858 42679746 42749356 42429236 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 17:32:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 12:32:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506251744.j5PHiDmH018629@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251743 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-251945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO..SRN/CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL IND...WRN/CENTRAL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251743Z - 251945Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. GIVEN LACK OF ORGANIZED THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG/ AXIS EXTENDING FROM STL METRO AREA/SERN MO ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN IL INTO WRN OH. DESPITE VERY LITTLE DEEP LAYER FLOW DUE TO PROXIMITY OF REGION TO UPPER RIDGE AXIS...MODERATELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-8 TO -9 DEG C AT 500 MB/ WILL FAVOR STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE GREATEST IN COVERAGE ALONG A WEAKLY DEFINED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF STL NEWD TO CENTRAL OH. GIVEN THE MULTICELLULAR NATURE OF CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION EXPECTED ON THE MESO-SCALE AIDING IN A MARGINAL SVR THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 41098287 40888516 40878619 40498829 40048943 39159021 38639074 38219074 37669051 37848925 39188595 39918224 40438179 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 17:45:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 12:45:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506251757.j5PHvI0p024239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251756 MTZ000-251900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1459 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251756Z - 251900Z A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NERN MT THIS AFTERNOON AND AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. HOWEVER... MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. AT 17Z...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR LWT WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SERN MT INTO SD. SELY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE ADVECTING DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWWD WITH MID/UPPER 50S COMMON ACROSS NERN MT. ALSO...THE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND OVERLAID WITH 35-40 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOP WEST OF LWT AND ITS RAPID NEWD MOTION SUGGESTS THE STORM IS ELEVATED. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CAP IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. STORMS THAT DO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS...WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ..IMY.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47661049 48371004 48970942 48950782 48620585 47180592 46850716 46890947 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 17:51:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 12:51:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506251803.j5PI30Tc026264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251802 UTZ000-WYZ000-252000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1460 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UTAH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251802Z - 252000Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SRN UT WHERE HEATING COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING ARE OCCURRING AS STRONG SWLY FLOW SPREADS NEWD ACROSS UT. DEVELOPING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE EVAPORATION FROM THE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS THRU THE AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND DEVELOP INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS THEN A SEVERE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. ..HALES.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... 37741257 40311363 41721291 40781050 38880962 37711060 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 18:23:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 13:23:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506251835.j5PIZMbS008063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251834 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-252000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1461 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ID AND SWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251834Z - 252000Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN ID/SWRN MT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. HIGH LEVEL JET MAX LOCATED OVER ERN NV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SERN ID LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS UT AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. MLCAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY INDICATES SOME HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY. ..IMY.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 45101558 46421497 47431438 47771303 47451142 45021100 42201095 41951221 42621475 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 18:31:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 13:31:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506251842.j5PIgsou011950@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251842 COZ000-NMZ000-252015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1462 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251842Z - 252015Z TSTMS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS OF NERN NM/SCENTRAL CO WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN NM/SERN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF THE FRONT RANGE AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ECENTRAL CO. ISOLATED SVR WINDS/HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS NM. THIS FEATURE WAS SAMPLED BY THE ABQ VWP WHICH IN THE LAST 1-2 HOURS SHOWED 30-35 KTS IN THE 3-5 KM LAYER...AROUND 10 KTS GREATER THAN THE 15Z RUC OR 12Z NAM/GFS. CONVECTION THAT HAD DEVELOPED RELATIVELY EARLY OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVER NERN NM/SERN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS LITTLE CINH REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVELS REMAINS SOMEWHAT BACKED. GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE CLOUD LAYER... AND MODERATE WIND FIELDS...CONVECTION MAY REMAIN LINEARLY ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT. GIVEN ONLY MODERATE INSTABILITY...MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...A MORE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR GREATER ORGANIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 35570539 37030503 38210479 39070429 39870332 39730238 39310208 38310214 37240290 35460376 35340445 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 19:29:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 14:29:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506251941.j5PJf4vJ003504@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251940 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251940 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-252145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1463 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NY...NRN VT/NRN NH AND MUCH OF ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251940Z - 252145Z SCT TSTMS OVER SRN QUEBEC CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD AROUND 25 KTS INTO WRN/NRN ME...AND POSSIBLY NERN NY/NRN VT/NRN NH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL. CONVECTION ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SAMPLED BY BURLINGTON VT...AND CARIBOU MAINE WILL SUPPORT SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE MODERATE WIND FIELDS AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PROBABLE. RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL OFFSET MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL MITIGATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ALTHOUGH WRN/NRN ME IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE ISOLATED SVR THREAT...RECENT TRENDS IN CONVECTIVE LINE MOTION FROM WNW SUGGESTS THAT FAR NERN NY/NRN VT AND NRN NH MAY ALSO HAVE SOME SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... 47506914 46077024 45387090 45097161 45037296 45037339 44977406 44747422 44397387 44157312 44207212 44367110 44417044 44786958 45086881 45446830 45956776 47086781 47326836 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 20:21:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 15:21:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506252032.j5PKWbKd025083@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252031 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-252130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1464 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL UT AND EXTREME SWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 523... VALID 252031Z - 252130Z THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL UT AND EXTREME SWRN WY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD AT 35-40 KT AS UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER ERN NV SHIFTS TOWARD SERN ID. DEEP MIX BOUNDARY LAYER IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE. DELTA UT AT 19Z REPORTED A WIND GUSTS TO 64 MPH FROM ONE OF THESE STORMS. ..IMY.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...VEF...LKN... 41791395 41901068 41690917 38410899 38131056 38121406 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 20:25:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 15:25:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506252036.j5PKaeeq026769@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252035 IAZ000-252230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 252035Z - 252230Z ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER WRN IA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AND MAY BECOME SFC BASED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/NCENTRAL IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. MID LEVEL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MCV OVER ERN NEB WILL MOVE INTO WRN AND CENTRAL IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OMA VWP AND FAIRBURY PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER WRN/CENTRAL IA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG AS SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOTED ON DSM RADAR CONTINUES TO LIFTS NWD NORTH OF I-80. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR AND WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL BE MARGINAL. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODERATE WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...IF SCT TSTMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY THEN WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.90 INCHES...THERE WILL BE A LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42959352 42949486 42489571 42099594 41849591 41489565 41249488 41199388 41209318 41379248 41859189 42279190 42989246 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 20:47:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 15:47:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506252058.j5PKwXUB003352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252057 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-252200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1466 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ID...SWRN MT AND NWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... VALID 252057Z - 252200Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS OVER NRN UT AND NERN NV WILL SHIFT NWD SERN ID INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NERN NV MOVES INTO THE AREA. OTHER STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA..ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN ID WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE PERMITTED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFYING STORMS WITH A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..IMY.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 43421432 45621360 46761270 46831113 46660900 43930997 42081090 42001438 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 20:52:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 15:52:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506252103.j5PL3hof005506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252102 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-252230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1467 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL CO...WRN KS...SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252102Z - 252230Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS OVER ECENTRAL/SERN CO WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD INTO WRN KS AND EVENTUALLY SWRN NEB OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. CONVECTION WAS INTENSIFYING OVER ECENTRAL/SERN CO AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NM. INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS SW-NE ACROSS ECENTRAL CO INTO WCENTRAL/NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD INTO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1200 J/KG...WHILE MAINTAINING THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR/WIND HAIL. OVERALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT LONGEVITY AND A MORE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 40710144 40140265 39700328 39040325 38160284 37810261 37890169 38450113 38870084 39160059 39590051 40490079 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 22:24:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 17:24:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506252236.j5PMaLx2006978@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252235 NDZ000-MTZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-260000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1468 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252235Z - 260000Z STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS EXTREME ERN WY -- SPECIFICALLY GOSHEN/NIOBRARA COUNTIES...ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WHILE MOVING INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS NEB PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SWRN SD. OTHER ACTIVITY OVER CAMPBELL COUNTY WY ALSO MAY BECOME SEVERE...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THOSE AREAS. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY CYCLONE OVER SERN MT BETWEEN SHR-BIL...WARM FRONT ESEWD ACROSS NERN TIP OF WY AND NRN-MOST BLACK HILLS. DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM DEVILS TOWER AREA SWD WITHIN 10-20 NM OF ERN WY BORDER...JUST E OF CYS AND INTO WRN WELD COUNTY CO. SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDS SEWD FROM MT LOW ACROSS JOHNSON AND CONVERSE COUNTIES WY...INTERSECTING DRYLINE JUST SW TOR...THEN SEWD TOWARD AKO. EXPECT PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN... 1. E OF DRYLINE...WHERE SFC DEW POINTS INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT TO LOW 60S F OVER NEB PANHANDLE...AND 2. NE OF SFC TROUGH...WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOST STRONGLY BACKED AND HODOGRAPHS ENLARGED. ALTHOUGH PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATES SOME FLOW WEAKNESSES IN 1-4 KM AGL LAYER...WINDS NE OF TROUGH AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PERMIT AT LEAST INTERMITTENT SUPERCELL MODE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ENHANCING LARGE HAIL THREAT. RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED OVER CENTRAL/NRN NEB PANHANDLE SHOW UP TO ABOUT 2100 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-40 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...WITH ABOUT 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARS. WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SHOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW... 45020888 49000842 48970386 45020451 45030449 45020412 44890376 44200302 42820238 41380219 41040252 40970286 40970416 41580473 42820486 43840556 44560684 44840724 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 22:30:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 17:30:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506252241.j5PMfh2x009267@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252240 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1468 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252240Z - 260015Z STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS EXTREME ERN WY -- SPECIFICALLY GOSHEN/NIOBRARA COUNTIES...ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WHILE MOVING INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS NEB PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SWRN SD. OTHER ACTIVITY OVER CAMPBELL COUNTY WY ALSO MAY BECOME SEVERE...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THOSE AREAS. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY CYCLONE OVER SERN MT BETWEEN SHR-BIL...WARM FRONT ESEWD ACROSS NERN TIP OF WY AND NRN-MOST BLACK HILLS. DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM DEVILS TOWER AREA SWD WITHIN 10-20 NM OF ERN WY BORDER...JUST E OF CYS AND INTO WRN WELD COUNTY CO. SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDS SEWD FROM MT LOW ACROSS JOHNSON AND CONVERSE COUNTIES WY...INTERSECTING DRYLINE JUST SW TOR...THEN SEWD TOWARD AKO. EXPECT PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN... 1. E OF DRYLINE...WHERE SFC DEW POINTS INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT TO LOW 60S F OVER NEB PANHANDLE...AND 2. NE OF SFC TROUGH...WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOST STRONGLY BACKED AND HODOGRAPHS ENLARGED. ALTHOUGH PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATES SOME FLOW WEAKNESSES IN 1-4 KM AGL LAYER...WINDS NE OF TROUGH AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PERMIT AT LEAST INTERMITTENT SUPERCELL MODE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ENHANCING LARGE HAIL THREAT. RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED OVER CENTRAL/NRN NEB PANHANDLE SHOW UP TO ABOUT 2100 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-40 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...WITH ABOUT 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARS. WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SHOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 45030449 45020412 44890376 44200302 42820238 41380219 41040252 40970286 40970416 41580473 42820486 43840556 44560684 44840724 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 22:58:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 17:58:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506252310.j5PNAC9B019162@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252309 NDZ000-MTZ000-260115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1469 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...PORTIONS NWRN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 525... VALID 252309Z - 260115Z LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS -- INDICATED NW OLF AS OF 23Z -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD 30-40 KT ACROSS PORTIONS ROOSEVELT/DANIELS/SHERIDAN COUNTIES MT. ACTIVITY MAY ACCELERATE AND DEVELOP BOW ECHO...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS NOW BEING PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP NWRN ND -- MAINLY FROM ISN AREA NWD -- BEFORE MOVING INTO SRN SK. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SWD ACROSS PORTIONS MCCONE/GARFIELD COUNTIES MT AS WELL...AND ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS WRN ND. CONVECTION MOVING NEWD FROM MUSSELSHELL COUNTY MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TORNADO POTENTIAL AS IT INTERACTS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER WRN ROSEBUD OR S-CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTIES. HOWEVER RELATIVELY FRESHLY PRODUCED...COLD AND PROGRESSIVE CHARACTER OF OUTFLOW SHOULD LIMIT DURATION OF THIS THREAT. OTHER...MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION INVOF MT/WY BORDER MAY ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTER AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS SERN MT...IN ENVIRONMENT OF BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS E-NE OF SFC LOW. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS AREA IS N OF SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT...LIFTED PARCELS REMAIN SFC BASED OVER MOST OF PRE-STORM AIR MASS IN ERN MT. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INVOF MLS APPEAR TO REPRESENT THIS ENVIRONMENT REASONABLY...WITH 50-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND WITH LOW 60S SFC DEW POINT CONTRIBUTING TO ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG MLCAPE. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND LCL SHOULD LOWER WITH TIME AS ANVIL SHADOWING AND LOWER SUN ANGLE CUT SFC HEATING SOMEWHAT. ..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 45020888 49000842 48970386 45020451 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 23:03:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 18:03:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506252314.j5PNEYn1020543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252313 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-260215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1470 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN/NCENTRAL IA AND FAR SERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 252313Z - 260215Z SCT STRONG TSTMS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO 01Z OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA...ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR ONL SEWD TO OMA AND EWD TO NEAR AIO. ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. GREATER COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 02Z...WHEN HVY RNFL WITH HRLY RATES OVER 1 INCH WILL BECOME THE MAIN THREAT. 22Z SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR ONL SEWD TO NEAR OMA AND THEN EWD TO JUST NORTH OF DSM. CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE REMAINING CINH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO INITIATE ISO SVR CONVECTION. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT SOME SVR HAIL AND WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. LACK OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS OVERALL THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPH PER RECENT OMA VWP SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST AS WELL WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY FORM ON THE BOUNDARY PRIOR TO 02Z. IF SFC BASED CONVECTION FAILS TO MATERIALIZE OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA EARLY THIS EVENING THEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES LATER THIS EVENING...MODERATE WAA AND CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE 850 MB BOUNDARY OVER FAR SERN SD...NWRN/NCENTRAL IA WOULD SUPPORT SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY... BUT WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...ONLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IS ANTICIPATED FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT FORMS. RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...AROUND 10 KTS PARALLEL TO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTATION...COMBINED WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.9 INCHES/ WOULD SUPPORT HVY RAINFALL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT AFTER DARK. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41019612 41659744 42419781 43109744 43309604 43509507 43419450 42679396 41599402 40879441 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 00:04:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 19:04:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260016.j5Q0GKuc011139@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260015 WYZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-260215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1471 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN UT...PORTIONS SWRN WY... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 523... VALID 260015Z - 260215Z EXPECT WW WILL NOT BE REISSUED OR EXTENDED EWD INTO CO OR MORE OF SRN WY...AND THAT REMAINING PORTIONS WW 523 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS WITH HISTORY OF STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS -- EVIDENT AT 00Z FROM SRN WASATCH RANGE SWD TOWARD LAKE POWELL REGION -- WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS ERN UT AND PERHAPS PORTIONS SWRN WY NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL...BUT DIMINISH AFTER 02Z WITH LOSS OF INFLOW-LAYER DIABATIC HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT PRODUCED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN GRAND COUNTY UT -- BETWEEN 2337-2350Z -- WILL MOVE NEWD INTO PORTIONS UINTAH COUNTY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AND MLCAPES GENERALLY UNDER 500 J/KG...BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO MAINTAIN WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IN MOST INTENSE CELLS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...LKN... 38081399 41811416 41840917 38090911 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 00:32:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 19:32:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260044.j5Q0iJ2Q019371@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260042 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-260215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1472 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN ID...WRN WY...SWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... VALID 260042Z - 260215Z MAINTAIN BULK OF WW THROUGH SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION EXCEPT STABILIZED AIR MASS OVER NWRN PORTION. THEREAFTER...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING TO REDUCE INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL MT CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH BIL...AND EXTENDS WWD ACROSS PORTIONS STILLWATER/SWEET GRASS/PARK COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE DRIFTING S TOWARD FOOTHILLS OF BEARTOOTH RANGE. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES TCU/STRONGLY SHEARED CB ATTEMPTS IN BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS...AND CELLS ORIGINATING THERE MAY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS AS THEY INTERACT WITH THAT BOUNDARY. FARTHER S...DRY AIR MASS IS PRECLUDING RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS SERN ID. GIVEN FAVORABLE KINEMATIC FIELDS ACROSS REGION...SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. MEANWHILE...AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN MT -- N OF DLN AREA -- HAS STABILIZED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO PRECIP AND MAY BE REMOVED FROM WW. ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 42011443 46701272 46680883 42041086 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 00:34:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 19:34:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260045.j5Q0jR3T019673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260044 NEZ000-COZ000-260245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1473 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260044Z - 260245Z ISOLATED SVR STORM THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OUT OF NWRN KS IN THE NEXT HOUR...AND MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER SWRN/SCENTRAL KS. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RISE/FALL COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING NEWD ACROSS NERN CO/FAR NWRN KS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT INTO SWRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT /PER 00Z LBF SOUNDING/ WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. RECENT TRENDS IN THE GDA PROFILER DATA AND GLD VWP DATA PRIOR TO OUTFLOW SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM GENERATED LOW LEVEL JET HAD DEVELOPED. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID IN SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF 850 WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SCENTRAL NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AMT OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SVR WILL MOVE INTO FAR SERN PORTIONS OF WW 526. ..CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... 40590206 41490187 41920110 41899902 41719845 41379816 40689801 40319832 40039899 40000195 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 02:12:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 21:12:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260223.j5Q2NtqP019505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260223 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-260400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1474 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NEB PANHANDLE...ERN WY...SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526... VALID 260223Z - 260400Z PER COORDINATION WITH CYS/RAP...WY/SD HAVE BEEN CLEARED FROM WW. REMAINDER WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 6Z EXPIRATION GIVEN SUSTAINED WEAKENING TRENDS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REMAINING IS ACTIVITY INVOF CDR...WHICH APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXTENDS WSWWD ACROSS PORTIONS NRN GOSHEN COUNTY WY...WHICH MAY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO SIOUX COUNTY NEB AND INTERACTS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE AIR MASS ACROSS REGION IS BECOMING MORE STABLE WITH COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...AND LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING. LARGE MULTICELL COMPLEX ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN AND CENTRAL NEB WILL REMAIN SE OF VALID WW COUNTIES. ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 41090070 41060383 44990655 44970306 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 02:56:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 21:56:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260307.j5Q37onb001924@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260307 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-260800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1475 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NV / SWRN UT / NWRN AZ CONCERNING...WIND SHIFT VALID 260307Z - 260800Z A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO WLY THEN NWLY LATER THIS EVENING. ABRUPT DIRECTIONAL CHANGE OF 30-40 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY...WITH WINDS FINALLY BECOMING LIGHT NWLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NV WITH CLOUD SHIELD EXPANDING EWD. AT THE SURFACE...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXIST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. GIVEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN COOLER AIR MASS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOUD COVER/VORT MAX AND SFC THERMAL TROUGH OVER ERN NV...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND SPEEDS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE STRONG WITH THIS WIND SHIFT...AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS BEGINS TO DECOUPLE. HOWEVER...VEERING WINDS MAY CAUSE TROUBLE IN VICINITY OF ONGOING FIRES. ..JEWELL.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF... 37961347 36661357 36251442 36801502 37871482 38301458 38181397 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 03:09:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 22:09:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260321.j5Q3LJpo006854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260320 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-260445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1476 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN MT...WRN ND...EXTREME NWRN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 527... VALID 260320Z - 260445Z CONVECTION ACROSS E-CENTRAL/NERN MT HAS EVOLVED INTO MCS THAT WILL MOVE INTO WRN ND DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND DURING PAST 1-2 HORUS. TORNADO WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OR BOW ECHO MESOCYCLONE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS...ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND -- SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION. INCREASING SBCINH IS LOWERING PROBABILITIES FOR ADDITIONAL/DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN SD/SERN MT BUT AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MOIST AXIS NEAR ONL...PIR...DIK..SDY LINE. MODIFIED GGW RAOB...AND RUC SOUNDINGS FROM NWRN SD ACROSS MT/ND BORDER AREA INDICATE LOW 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS 40-50 KT. STORM-RELATIVE INFLOWS 25-35 KT ARE INDICATED FOR VARIOUS EWD-NEWD MOTIONS OBSERVED OVER PAST 1-2 HOURS. SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER WRN PORTIONS WW WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HAVE STABILIZED AIR MASS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 44970295 44980781 48980575 48990045 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 04:27:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 23:27:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260438.j5Q4cogu032427@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260438 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260437 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-260600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1477 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN IL...IA WITHIN ABOUT 80-90 NM N OF I-80. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 260437Z - 260600Z POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO HEAVY PRECIP CHARACTER...WITHIN BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM EXTREME NRN IL WWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND W-CENTRAL IA. BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF THREAT APPEARS TO BECOME MORE SUSTAINED...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST INFLOW WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT PRECIP GENERATION AND LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN RATES LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR...PARTICULARLY IN CORES OF SLOW MOVING HP STORMS. VWP DATA AND RUC HODOGRAPHS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...RESULTING FROM STRONG VEERING IN LOWEST 3 KM AGL WIND PROFILES. SRH VALUES OF AROUND 150 J/KG ARE EVIDENT IN 0-1 KM LAYER...ACCOUNTING FOR BULK OF SRH IN ENTIRE PROFILE. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK -- GENERALLY 15-20 KT AROUND 500 MB -- BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTRIBUTES TO AROUND 40 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHEN USING EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCEL. RIGHTWARD MOVING STORMS -- TURNING GENERALLY SWD IN THIS KINEMATIC PROFILE -- WILL HAVE 20-30 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WITH BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCH PW. MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG ARE EVIDENT BASED ON MODIFIED OAX RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42218880 41878962 41599059 41789320 41789556 42299534 42579446 42879309 42879249 42569185 42279084 42419030 42678859 42388846 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 04:38:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 23:38:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260449.j5Q4nvU4003096@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260449 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260449 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-260645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1478 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 527... VALID 260449Z - 260645Z SQLN WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E ACROSS WRN ND IN WW 527. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REQUIRE A SMALL ADDITIONAL WATCH E OF WW 527 IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. COMPOSITE RADAR DATA SHOW APEX OF BOW-SHAPED MCS MOVING ENE AT 45 KTS INVOF ISN IN NW ND. TRAILING SWRN PART OF COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE. THE SRN PART OF THE LINE HAS UNDERGONE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN THE PAST 1-2 HRS. IN CONTRAST...THE NRN PART OF THE COMPLEX HAS REMAINED VERY STRONG AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERSECT EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTED ENE/WSW ACROSS NW ND. LATEST SURFACE AND VWP DATA SHOW AXIS OF GREATEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ EXTENDING FROM NEAR ISN SEWD TO NEAR BIS. THIS CORRIDOR ALSO CORRESPONDS TO AXIS OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW...WITH 0-1 KM SSELY FLOW OF 25-30 KTS. GIVEN THIS SETUP...PART OF THE WRN ND MCS MAY SOON TURN SOMEWHAT MORE E OR ESE ALONG INSTABILITY/INFLOW GRADIENT TOWARD CNTRL ND. GIVEN THE PREVAILING INSTABILITY/SHEAR...SUCH MOTION MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL E OF WW 527 EARLY SUNDAY. ..CORFIDI.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45900121 45900238 45880342 45940416 46260457 46690474 47440437 48010399 48730348 48930241 48970074 48939953 48489897 47469852 46529890 45980003 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 08:48:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 03:48:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506260859.j5Q8xa4I027755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260858 NDZ000-261030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1479 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528... VALID 260858Z - 261030Z THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IN OVERALL INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. UNLESS STORMS REINTENSIFY...ANOTHER WW E OF 528 IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF DEVILS LAKE SWWD TO N OF BISMARK. NRN PORTION OF LINE IS MOVING THE FASTEST AT AROUND 35 KT AND WILL BEGIN MOVING E OF WW 528 BY 0945Z. OVERALL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NWD INTO SRN CANADA DURING THE MORNING WHERE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN SASKATCHEWAN EXISTS. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE WITH TIME WHICH...IN CONCERT WITH THE RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD MAINTAIN A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AS A NON-SEVERE MCS. STORMS ON THE SRN END OF THE MCS MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN ND. ..DIAL.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46960066 47969923 48859862 48759773 47839766 46610018 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 15:39:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 10:39:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506261551.j5QFp8tM023181@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261550 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261550 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-261745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NERN SD...WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261550Z - 261745Z STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN ND AND NERN SD LATE THIS MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION APPEARS SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM GRADUALLY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WITHIN CAPPED AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL MAY INCREASE IF ACTIVITY CAN PERSIST NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SCALE MID LEVEL VORT CENTER APPEARS TO BE DRIVING AN INCREASE IN TSTMS ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN ND INTO NERN SD LATE THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WOULD APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL FROM A FEW OF THESE CELLS. HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE FURTHER AS UPSTREAM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AND FUELS STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45629628 45359753 45369867 45929931 46579935 46859915 47479853 47999781 48159710 48049591 47759518 46689512 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 16:40:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 11:40:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506261652.j5QGq4eg018191@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261651 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-261915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...PARTS OF MA/CT/RI/SRN NH AND SWRN ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261651Z - 261915Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM ERN NY INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF STORM COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE INCREASES. SFC TEMPS HAVE HEATED QUICKLY TO AROUND 90F BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM THE LWR HUDSON VLY ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. THIS HEATING...COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF STALLED/RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH...HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG/. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE WHITE AND GREEN MTNS...ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS HAS ALLOWED WEAK CAP TO BE OVERCOME THESE LOCATIONS WITH STORM INITIATION NOW OCCURRING. IN ADDITION TO THIS CONVECTION DRIFTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...TROUGH...AND NEAR SEA BREEZES SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE WITH A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. STORM AND/OR BOUNDARY MERGERS AND COLLISIONS COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT SPREADING INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER PARTS OF MA AND SRN NH BY LATE AFTERNOON. IF A CORRIDOR OF MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY CAN BE ANTICIPATED...THEN A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED OVER THE PARTS OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... 42077183 41877317 41887376 41927442 42337450 42777429 43147408 43717417 43737415 44187392 44147375 43837319 43737232 44067140 44647028 44776961 44236951 43787033 42927092 42247112 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 17:50:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 12:50:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506261801.j5QI1jHw014747@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261800 COZ000-NMZ000-262000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CO AND NERN/NCENTRAL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261800Z - 262000Z ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN/CENTRAL COLORADO IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY UNDER MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. FURTHER EAST...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO...NERN NM. DMGG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS EXPECTED IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING QUICKLY OVER THE MTNS OF NCENTRAL NM...WRN/CENTRAL CO WHERE MLCAPES WERE FROM 500-700 J/KG. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER ERN UT...AFFECTS OF MODERATE WIND FIELDS /30-40 KTS AT 500 MB PER RECENT AZTEC NM PROFILER/ ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY DEEP MIXED /INVERTED-V/ ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS WITH THIS CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO WIND FIELD OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO AND NERN NM SHOULD INITIALLY LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF STORM MVMNT AND SVR THREAT INTO THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...TRENDS IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DIMINISHING MLCINH OVER THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH BASED STORMS TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA AFTER 20Z. FARTHER EAST...LEE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER FAR ERN CO MAY PROVIDE A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR ISO SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z...WHEN CINH WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY. AGAIN HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION IN THIS AREA DUE TO 30+ DWPT SPREADS AND SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FAVOR DMGG WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT... 40900501 40750649 40290773 39060849 38150861 37080805 36320703 36090689 36110519 36300404 36980309 37710226 38820210 39570225 40230256 40840370 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 18:19:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 13:19:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506261830.j5QIUSgn026098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261829 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-262030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NERN SD...WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261829Z - 262030Z A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN. SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND ABR 18Z RAOB WERE SUGGESTING CAP IS QUICKLY ERODING FROM ABR AREA NWD ACROSS ERN ND...AND ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS WRN MN. CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND ALONG WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR NEAR SFC-BASED STORM INCITATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND WARM FRONT AND 30-45KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL FURTHER PROMOTE INTENSE STORM UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED MESOCYCLONES. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS TRACK NEAR/ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..CARBIN.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46339314 45769634 44890089 47080176 48459334 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 18:27:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 13:27:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506261839.j5QId9q0030138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261838 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261838 NMZ000-262045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/CENTRAL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261838Z - 262045Z CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE GALLINAS AND SAN MATEO MTNS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY...AND ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS BY 20Z. A GREATER SVR THREAT MAY OCCUR AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS EWD INTO THE ERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LAST NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS SENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVER CENTRAL NM. 12Z SOUNDING FROM ABQ INDICATED MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG/ WOULD BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN AS DEEP MIXING CONTINUES TO OCCUR. LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF NM AS PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF WRN NM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AROUND 30 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW...COMBINED WITH SELY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OVER THE ECENTRAL/SERN NM HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER WEST...VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AID IN GREATER MIXING. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD FAVOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AS THE MOST LIKELY SVR THREAT OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. ..CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 35040739 35840718 36500508 36300396 35680322 34450336 33090358 32990409 32960562 33970735 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 19:19:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 14:19:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506261931.j5QJVGak019925@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261930 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-262200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SERN MT...WRN ND/SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261930Z - 262200Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF ERN WY/MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS MAY NEED TO BE COVERED WITH A WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RADAR AND LIGHTNING TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM WY INTO SERN MT THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF A SFC LOW OVER NWRN SD WILL CONTINUE TO AID AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FROM NWRN SD TO NEAR MT/ND BORDER. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WY/MT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AS CAPPING IS OVERCOME BY SFC HEATING AND FORCING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. A S-N BAND OF 30-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT CELLS AND STORM CLUSTERS. HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A LARGER-SCALE MCS LATER THIS EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW... 45090257 44350506 44620666 46250572 46830509 47930386 48240245 47920140 47290172 46290209 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 20:21:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 15:21:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506262033.j5QKX1dH013259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262030 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-262230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ID...SMALL PARTS OF WRN MT/WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262030Z - 262230Z MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/SERN ID...WRN MT AND WRN WY THROUGH THE EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY BEING PLANNED. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BENEATH MID LEVEL COLD POOL FROM SRN ID INTO WRN WY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...PERSISTENT ASCENT WITHIN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/DESTABILIZATION...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS. A FEW CELLS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN LOWER FREEZING LEVELS UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL. IN ADDITION...STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ..CARBIN.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... 42141117 42101309 42021397 41981519 42131576 42511630 42791650 43311639 43701579 43951536 44691387 45111253 45081101 44351012 42671034 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 20:37:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 15:37:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506262048.j5QKmrGJ020430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262048 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-262215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS...WRN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 529... VALID 262048Z - 262215Z ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 529 AND MAY REMAIN A THREAT INTO NERN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. FARTHER WEST...NEW CG LTG STRIKE WAS NOTED WITHIN BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING NORTH ACROSS EDMUNDS AND MCPHERSON COUNTIES IN NCNTRL SD. THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY CLOSE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FOCUSED NEAR THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN STORMS WAS TRAILING WWD INTO EXTREME SERN ND. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPUR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA INTO THE EVENING. SITUATION APPEARS QUITE VOLATILE WITH LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL POTENTIAL UNFOLDING GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. ..CARBIN.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46449472 44580151 47190169 48359741 48879484 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 20:48:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 15:48:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506262059.j5QKxstr024843@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262059 KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-262300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1488 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...NERN CO...WRN NEB AND SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262059Z - 262300Z HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF LEE TROUGH MAY INTENSIFY AND POSE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT AS IT MOVES EWD INTO GREATER INSTABILITY OVER NWRN KS NWD INTO SWRN SD. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG LEE TROUGH. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 23Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL SD. A SFC LEE TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS SWRN SD...WRN NEB/INTO FAR NWRN KS AND ECENTRAL CO. CONVECTION IN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER NERN CO AND ERN WY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 25-30 KTS INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN WY/NERN CO. DESPITE SOMEWHAT VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW...EVEN EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH...MODERATE MID LVL WIND FIELDS FROM 30-40 KTS PER REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION AS STORMS ENCOUNTER HIGHER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG/ EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH OVER WRN KS....WRN NEB AND SWRN SD. THUS LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 44130388 44390168 42530093 41130049 40180016 38919994 38770130 38730196 40430254 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 22:18:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 17:18:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506262230.j5QMUEkC027278@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262229 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-270030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO..SWRN KS...WRN OK PANHANDLE...NERN/ECENTRAL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 530... VALID 262229Z - 270030Z SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WW 530 THROUGH 00Z. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE GREATEST OVER ECENTRAL NM...WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT HIGHEST OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS...WRN OK PANHANDLE AND NERN NM. CONVECTION OVER NERN NM/SERN CO WAS MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE AND GIVEN VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEVELOPING COLD POOL OVER NERN NM WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER ECENTRAL/SERN NM. ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM GUADALUPE COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO DE BACA COUNTY AND OUT OF WW 530 IN THE NEXT HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STG-SVR STORM MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS EWD INTO WRN CHAVES COUNTY THROUGH 00Z. DESPITE SOME SVR THREAT SOUTH OF WW 530...OVERALL LIMITED SPATIAL THREAT DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE A NEW WW ISSUANCE. ADDITIONAL SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DRY LINE INTERSECTION OVER SWRN PORTION OF WW 530 TO THE ESE OF ABQ /TORRANCE COUNTY/. ..CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 38320307 35060687 34800715 34810447 38330035 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 02:48:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 21:48:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506270259.j5R2xSKX030793@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270258 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-270430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0958 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN ND...N-CENTRAL/EXTREME NERN SD... CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533... VALID 270258Z - 270430Z MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...EVIDENT AT 230Z FROM CORSON COUNTY SD NNEWD THROUGH ROLETTE COUNTY ND AND INTO SWRN MB. ADDITIONALLY...PORTIONS NWRN MN E OF WW 533 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR WW IN ADVANCE OF SEVERE CONVECTION MOVING NEWD FROM SARGENT/RANSOM COUNTIES IN SERN ND. SQUALL LINE THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER SERN MT/NWRN SD HAS MERGED WITH EARLIER SUPERCELLS ACROSS GRANT COUNTY ND...FORMING BOW ECHO THAT SHOULD CROSS SRN PORTIONS BIS AREA MOVING 40-45 KT. ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY EXTEND DOWNSHEAR ACROSS A CORRIDOR EXTENDING ENEWD TOWARD JMS...DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS. AIR MASS OVER ERN ND IS GRADUALLY BECOMING DECOUPLED AT SFC BECAUSE OF DIABATIC COOLING...BUT STABLE LAYER WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW TO ALLOW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH SFC RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS OVER PRE-STORM AIR MASS IN ND...NERN SD AND NWRN MN INDICATE 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG SUPPORTED BY RICH MOISTURE IN SFC 850 MB LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45309641 44660148 48430154 49049641 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 03:10:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 22:10:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506270321.j5R3LgZp006804@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270320 MNZ000-270515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270320Z - 270515Z SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z ACROSS NRN MN...PRIMARILY FROM E OF FAR NEWD TOWARD WRN BOUNDARY WATERS REGION AND NWD TOWARD MB BORDER. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. RICHLAND COUNTY SD TSTMS ARE SHOWING DECREASING TREND...BUT FOREGOING AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE OVER ERN PORTIONS WW 533 AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF NWRN MN NOT IN WW. WELL ORGANIZED LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS ALSO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD FROM RED RIVER REGION AFTER 5Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THAT ACTIVITY. ZONALLY ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION -- EVIDENT AT 315Z FROM E-CENTRAL ND ACROSS BJI AREA...MAY FILL IN AND EXPAND EWD AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD CANADIAN BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING N OF SFC WARM FRONT...IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WAA...AND ATOP INCREASINGLY DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT MOIST 30-40 KT LLJ TO SUPPORT STRENGTHENING OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE EVIDENT IN 00Z MPX RAOB SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED MUCAPES INCREASING TO 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE...WITH 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 48319244 47839251 47359320 47289358 46709417 46509595 46659641 49019644 48989512 49389510 49359493 49329482 48919469 48799467 48729451 48719435 48689423 48659417 48619381 48529379 48529348 48609345 48629322 48619299 48519262 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 03:14:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 22:14:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506270325.j5R3PUcv008143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270324 COR MNZ000-270515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270324Z - 270515Z CORRECTED FOR TYPO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z ACROSS NRN MN...PRIMARILY FROM E OF FAR NEWD TOWARD WRN BOUNDARY WATERS REGION AND NWD TOWARD MB BORDER. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. RICHLAND COUNTY ND TSTMS ARE SHOWING DECREASING TREND...BUT FOREGOING AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE OVER ERN PORTIONS WW 533 AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF NWRN MN NOT IN WW. WELL ORGANIZED LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS ALSO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD FROM RED RIVER REGION AFTER 5Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THAT ACTIVITY. ZONALLY ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION -- EVIDENT AT 315Z FROM E-CENTRAL ND ACROSS BJI AREA...MAY FILL IN AND EXPAND EWD AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD CANADIAN BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING N OF SFC WARM FRONT...IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WAA...AND ATOP INCREASINGLY DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT MOIST 30-40 KT LLJ TO SUPPORT STRENGTHENING OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE EVIDENT IN 00Z MPX RAOB SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED MUCAPES INCREASING TO 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE...WITH 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 48319244 47839251 47359320 47289358 46709417 46509595 46659641 49019644 48989512 49389510 49359493 49329482 48919469 48799467 48729451 48719435 48689423 48659417 48619381 48529379 48529348 48609345 48629322 48619299 48519262 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 06:41:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 01:41:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506270652.j5R6qbZm013874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270652 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270651 MNZ000-NDZ000-270745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN ND THROUGH EXTREME WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533... VALID 270651Z - 270745Z STORMS CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH EXTREME WRN MN AND WILL MOVE E OF THE REMAINING PARTS OF 533 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEREFORE WW 533 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 08Z. ..DIAL.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF... 46199678 47769687 48909723 48799619 46289633 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 07:50:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 02:50:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506270802.j5R827Uu005564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270759 MNZ000-270900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534... VALID 270759Z - 270900Z THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH SQUALL LINE OVER NRN MN...BUT OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN MOVING E OF WW 534 AROUND 0930Z... BUT IT APPEARS MOST OF THE STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO SRN CANADA AFTER THIS TIME. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WW E OF 534 WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. EARLY THIS MORNING...SQUALL LINE OVER NWRN MN CONTINUES ENEWD AT 45 KT. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST HOUR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN END OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN LIMITED DUE TO PRESENCE OF A STRONGER CAP. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME OVER CNTRL AND SWRN MN AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT LIFTING NEWD INTO CANADA...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MUCH FARTHER SWD. THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS STORMS LIFT NEWD TOWARD A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DIAL.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 47019519 47739487 48659479 48689415 48369321 46939468 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 15:24:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 10:24:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506271535.j5RFZY6r002337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271534 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271534 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-271730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 271534Z - 271730Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS. LITTLE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY. THIS APPEARS TO BE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...NOW ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. WITH FURTHER HEATING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND CATSKILLS...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COULD ENHANCE ISOLATED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES. ..KERR.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... 43227523 43517404 44527337 44807254 44877123 43347131 42467217 41907282 41727376 41797474 42247547 42647551 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 17:18:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 12:18:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506271730.j5RHUGng013591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271729 MNZ000-271930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1499 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271729Z - 271930Z THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKELY TO INCREASE/INTENSIFY NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN NARROW TONGUE. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE NOW ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG...WITH INHIBITION GRADUALLY WEAKENING. MODELS SUGGEST DEFORMATION OF WEAK CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...FORCING MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL AREA...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 19-21Z. OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP/BECOME FOCUSED ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...NORTH OF BRAINERD INTO AREAS EAST OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS. THOUGH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 48039104 46949221 45429345 44469437 44039455 44579595 45369620 46539563 47989383 48599291 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 17:25:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 12:25:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506271736.j5RHaj9D017321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271735 GAZ000-SCZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-271930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY...ERN/MIDDLE TN...ERN/NRN AL...NRN GA...FAR SWRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271735Z - 271930Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS/MERGERS THAT OCCUR OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SVR EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 20Z. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS EXISTED OVER THE AREA TODAY THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED SVR WET MICROBURSTS. ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED DRY AIR POCKET FROM 700-500 MB THAT HAS BEEN BROUGHT NWD INTO THE REGION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WRN TN BEGINS TO LIFTS NWD. AXIS OF LOW-MID 70S DEWPTS EXTENDING NNW FROM CENTRAL/SRN GA INTO THE SCENTRAL KY BENEATH THIS DRY AIR LAYER SUPPORTED DELTA THETA-E VALUES FROM 25-30 DEGREES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS FROM NRN GA...NRN/ERN AL NWD INTO CENTRAL KY. IN ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES/1000 MUCAPE IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER ABOVE THE DRY AIR SHOULD FAVOR STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AS WELL. KINEMATICALLY...A UNIDIRECTIONAL AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE OVER THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL FAVOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 15-20 KT OF 1-2 KM WINDS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL VWPS IN ADDITION TO DOWNDRAFT GENERATED WINDS. WHERE CELL MERGERS OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF NWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP...WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH... 37168462 35988407 35158346 33788267 32938324 33008457 33648697 34718720 36038720 37118730 37438564 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 17:42:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 12:42:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506271754.j5RHs9h1027897@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271753 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-272000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN NEB INTO WRN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271753Z - 272000Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. IN THE WAKE OF WEAK IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...ZONE OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE OMAHA AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD WITH FORCING EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...AND ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WITH FURTHER HEATING/WEAKENING INHIBITION...CAPE FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS GRADUALLY BECOME ROOTED IN THIS LAYER. SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID... 41359737 42069679 43329574 43299384 42419310 41419371 40669488 40219646 40349753 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 18:04:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 13:04:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506271815.j5RIFmPi008753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271814 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-272015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL WI INTO UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271814Z - 272015Z AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. SURFACE HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKENING CAP/INCREASING CAPE...WHICH WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG ACROSS MOST AREAS BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD IS EVIDENT IN CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC NEXT FEW HOURS...INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY. AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET...NOW SHIFTING INTO ONTARIO...BUT 20 TO 30 KT FLOW FIELDS WILL ENHANCE STORM PROPAGATION...AND POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX... 46598737 46068765 45378808 44328869 43668918 43198977 43039132 44539033 45189001 45759025 46818957 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 18:57:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 13:57:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506271909.j5RJ98HW012938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271908 ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-272115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1503 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...CENTRAL/SERN MO AND SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271908Z - 272115Z ISOLATED WET MICRORBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAKLY ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP 0-1 KM LAPSE RATES FROM 8-9 DEG C...BENEATH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG/ WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR MICROBURST WINDS MOST LIKELY WHERE STORM MERGERS OCCUR. DESPITE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAINS COOL /-8 TO -9 DEG C AT 500 MB/ AND COOL SFC DOWNDRAFT AIR IN THE LOWER 70S MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. ..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 38829244 37039350 35869356 35069284 35059161 35589057 37048921 38098910 39348999 39339186 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 19:50:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 14:50:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506272002.j5RK2FgS015447@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272001 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-272200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/NERN CO....NWRN KS SWD INTO SERN NM/SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272001Z - 272200Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE BY 22Z. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE AND GENERALLY UNORGANIZED SVR THREAT EXPECTED. BROAD SWLY FLOW WILL AID IN CONTINUED SLOW EWD SHIFT OF DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH TO AN AXIS FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE NERN CO/NWRN KS BORDER SSWWD TO NEAR CIMARRON COUNTY OK THEN SWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM FROM CAO TO THE SACRAMENTO MTN FOOTHILLS OF SERN NM BY 22Z. AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH...MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG /HIGHEST VALUES OVER WRN KS AND THE WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES/ WILL EXIST. MLCINH SHOULD DECREASE SUFFICIENTLY BY 21-22Z...THAT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF ALREADY DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER SERN NM HIGH PLAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST...GIVEN GENERALLY SLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH AND 20-30 KTS OF MID WLY FLOW. ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SERN NM WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED AND MID LEVEL FLOW WAS WNWLY. THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE FARTHER NORTH OVER NWRN KS/NERN CO...WHERE BACKED FLOW EXISTS NORTH OF SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER THAN FARTHER SOUTH /30 KTS PER RECENT PLT PROFILER DATA/. IN BOTH THESE AREAS...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...EPZ... 34880447 34250492 33020520 32460487 32110382 32110331 35610164 37320019 38999965 39730014 40060200 40410267 39980325 38410173 36910257 36250343 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 19:58:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 14:58:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506272009.j5RK9ZQg021250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272008 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-272215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SW SD...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272008Z - 272215Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL BACK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS BECOMING FOCUSED FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO EAST CENTRAL/ NORTHEAST WYOMING. THIS IS IN WAKE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE IMPULSE ALREADY LIFTING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND NOT WELL HANDLED BY 12Z NAM/GFS. AS LEAD SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON... INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MOISTENING AND HEATING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS. AS LEADING EDGE OF MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 21-23Z. ..KERR.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... 44070599 44640591 44900450 44520366 43700287 42980225 42590147 41900161 41610223 41670346 41990423 42810530 43410571 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 20:27:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 15:27:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506272039.j5RKdJ1q007464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272037 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-272200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MN...IA...WRN WI...IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 535...536... VALID 272037Z - 272200Z RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS WWS 535 AND 536. NEW WW MAY STILL BE NEEDED TO THE EAST...ACROSS WISCONSIN/PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. EVOLUTION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH INTENSE LEADING EDGE OF STORMS JUST EAST OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM NEAR BRAINERD INTO AREAS EAST OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS. PROXIMITY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO 35-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO ONTARIO WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS WEST THROUGH NORTH OF DULUTH INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FOCUSED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SUPPORTS CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE. BEST POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE IN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NOW SPREADING EAST OF OMAHA INTO THE DES MOINES AREA THROUGH 22-23Z. HOWEVER...INCREASING CONVECTION IS EVIDENT WEST OF MINNEAPOLIS MN...WHERE AIR MASS IS MODIFYING IN WAKE OF EARLY BAND OF STORMS. ..KERR.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX... 41869638 43439650 45599543 47059428 48259328 48069053 47098774 43549071 41549227 40779497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 21:00:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 16:00:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506272111.j5RLBaDp027134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272110 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272110 MTZ000-WYZ000-272315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN SEWD INTO SERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272110Z - 272315Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ARE POSSIBLE OVER NWRN/WCENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED AMPLE HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER CENTRAL/SCENTRAL/SERN MT MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE SCT SVR THREAT. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER WRN MT AS IT MOVES INTO INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW WBZ HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER SE...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SERN ID...SWRN MT AND NWRN WY MTNS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ID WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SCENTRAL MT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG/ DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GREATER WLY COMPONENT TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS OVER SCENTRAL/CENTRAL MT GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. ..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... 44930621 45210954 46241248 47291405 47681418 48381380 48801326 48931174 48541002 46740638 45250509 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 21:37:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 16:37:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506272148.j5RLmPjU015455@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272147 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-272345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...NERN CO AND SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272147Z - 272345Z ISOLATED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA BY 23Z. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING ALONG LEE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTION /NOTED ON GLD RADAR NEAR BURLINGTON CO/ NWD TO JUST EAST OF AKRON AND CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY. AREA REMAINS ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WITH PLT PROFILER INDICATING 35 KTS AT 5-6 KM. EAST OF THE DRYLINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL AUGMENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO OVER 40 KTS THUS SUPPORTING SUPERCELL STORM TYPE. EVEN IF NO OTHER STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...IT IS LIKELY THAT ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER BANNER COUNTY NEB IN THE PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SEWD OUT OF WW 537 IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS INTO INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS SWRN NEB/FAR NERN CO. RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... 40830339 39960314 39490317 39140238 39130110 39290019 40319987 40970000 40990290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 22:49:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 17:49:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506272301.j5RN14Ri018120@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272300 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-280030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1509 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0600 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...WRN SD...FAR ERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537... VALID 272300Z - 280030Z ALL OF WW 537 WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z. ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER BANNER/MORRILL COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD AROUND 15 KTS INTO CHEYENNE COUNTY THROUGH 00Z. BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS STORM...BUT VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY. ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS OVER THE NWRN NEB PANHANDLE WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER NORTH...THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER ECENTRAL/NERN WY AHEAD OF DRYLINE. CLUSTER OF STG STORMS OVER CAMPBELL/WESTON AND CROOK COUNTIES WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THREAT FOR SVR OVER WRN SD MAY BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO THIS AREA AFTER 00Z...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS MAINTAINED OVER 100 J/KG OF MLCINH. ..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... 40830339 39960314 39490317 39140238 39130110 39290019 40319987 40970000 40990290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 22:52:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 17:52:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506272303.j5RN3fsA019451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272302 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1510 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN MN...IA...W-CENTRAL/SWRN WI...EXTREME NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536... VALID 272302Z - 280100Z CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF IA CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY AHEAD OF SFC FRONT OVER MN. CONVECTIVE/OUTFLOW TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR EXTENSION OF THREAT EWD OVER ERN IA AND ACROSS MS RIVER...AND NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LATTER AREA IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE IS ANALYZED FROM MEEKER COUNTY CONVECTION SEWD THROUGH FARIBAULT COUNTY AT 23Z. MOST MN ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS LINE...W OF WHICH SFC FLOW VEERS AND CONVERGENCE WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY. CLUSTERS OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS OVER NRN AND SRN EXTREMES OF WW WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH REMAINDER LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND...AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. SRN CLUSTER IS WELL DEFINED AS BOW ECHO INVOF DSM...MOVING EWD 30-35 KT. INFLOW-LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY DISTANCE FROM SFC-BASED INFLOW...SINCE LATEST REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE GUST FRONT CONSISTENTLY 10-15 NM AHEAD OF REFLECTIVITY CORES. ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- FROM ACTIVITY ACROSS HARDIN/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IA...INTERSECTS SRN GUST FRONT OVER STORY COUNTY AS OF 23Z. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z INVOF THAT BOUNDARY INTERSECTION AS IT PROPAGATES EWD/ESEWD OVER PORTIONS MARSHALL/TAMA COUNTIES. AIR MASS AHEAD OF GUST FRONTS REMAINS FAVORABLY UNSTABLE -- WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING MLCAPES APCHG 3000 J/KG AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS SUPPORTING BOTH INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW SURGES MAY RESULT IN WEAKENING OF EXISTING CONVECTION...AND NECESSITY OF NEW DEVELOPMENT BEFORE ANOTHER WW IS NECESSARY. ..EDWARDS.. 06/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 40969507 41359480 41509437 41539417 41969416 42249395 42619398 44439529 45479409 45449154 45159131 43339046 42449018 41999007 40959074 40669217 40869459 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 00:18:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 19:18:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280029.j5S0TlEh022294@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280028 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN MN...NRN WI...WRN/CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...SRN/CENTRAL LS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538...540... VALID 280028Z - 280230Z MAINTAIN WWS ALONG/E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH TSTM COMPLEX OVER SERN MN/NWRN WI. AREA S OF WW 538 IN WI MAY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WW BEFORE 02Z EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 540. GUST FRONT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION NW OF MSP METRO HAS SURGED SEWD AND UNDERCUT MUCH OF PREVIOUSLY SEVERE ACTIVITY OVER METRO AREA. MEANWHILE SEVERE BOWING SEGMENT CONTINUES TO SURGE NEWD INTO WRN WI...AFTER PRODUCING MEASURED SEVERE GUST OF 51 KT AT STATION OEO. PORTIONS WASHBURN/BARRON/SAWYER/RUSK COUNTIES WI MAY EXPERIENCE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS BOW PASSES DURING NEXT COUPLE HOURS. DISCRETE TSTMS E AND S OF BOW AND GUST FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH VERY FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F SUPPORTING ROUGHLY 3000 J/KG MLCAPES...USING MODIFIED 00Z MPX RAOB. ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN PORTIONS WW 540 INTO WRN WW 538...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION INCREASING FROM ONTONAGON COUNTY MI SWWD ACROSS NRN WI. OVER LS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADATE FROM MIXTURE OF WIND AND HAIL TO JUST HAIL...WITH NWD EXTENT. COLD/STABLE AIR MASS DEEPENS WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS LAKE...REDUCING DCAPE AND LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS GENERATED ALOFT TO BE MAINTAINED TO SFC. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA ATOP MARINE LAYER WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED CONVECTION -- SOME WITH STRONG GUSTS SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL -- AMIDST 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44709325 45529290 46179198 46989085 47678891 47708782 46968573 45228574 45288833 44368925 43298948 42809091 44279172 44699166 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 00:19:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 19:19:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280030.j5S0UrWU022714@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280030 MTZ000-280230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539... VALID 280030Z - 280230Z BROKEN LINE OF SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT THROUGH 02Z...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SVR THREAT OVER SERN MT APPEARS TO BE WANING...AND THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WW 539 EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENEWD INTO CENTRAL/NCENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MT. A 50-75 MILE WIDE NW-SE ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY ACROSS NCENTRAL/CENTRAL INTO SERN MT THROUGH THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SVR THREAT WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY POSE A BRIEF SVR THREAT NORTH OF WW 539 NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OF NCENTRAL MT...00Z GGW SOUNDING INDICATES THAT LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER NERN MT SHOULD PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT SPATIAL AREA FOR A NEW WW NNE OF WW 539. FARTHER SE...CIRRUS CANOPY OF SERN MT MAY LIMIT ANY SVR THREAT IN THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED...AND IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS PRIOR TO 02Z...THEN THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED FROM WW 539. ..CROSBIE.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47881197 48991064 48850922 48260808 47440802 45060427 45020878 46590973 47511110 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 00:19:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 19:19:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280030.j5S0Uw9v022767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280028 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN MN...NRN WI...WRN/CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...SRN/CENTRAL LS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538...540... VALID 280028Z - 280230Z MAINTAIN WWS ALONG/E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH TSTM COMPLEX OVER SERN MN/NWRN WI. AREA S OF WW 538 IN WI MAY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WW BEFORE 02Z EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 540. GUST FRONT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION NW OF MSP METRO HAS SURGED SEWD AND UNDERCUT MUCH OF PREVIOUSLY SEVERE ACTIVITY OVER METRO AREA. MEANWHILE SEVERE BOWING SEGMENT CONTINUES TO SURGE NEWD INTO WRN WI...AFTER PRODUCING MEASURED SEVERE GUST OF 51 KT AT STATION OEO. PORTIONS WASHBURN/BARRON/SAWYER/RUSK COUNTIES WI MAY EXPERIENCE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS BOW PASSES DURING NEXT COUPLE HOURS. DISCRETE TSTMS E AND S OF BOW AND GUST FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH VERY FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F SUPPORTING ROUGHLY 3000 J/KG MLCAPES...USING MODIFIED 00Z MPX RAOB. ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN PORTIONS WW 540 INTO WRN WW 538...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION INCREASING FROM ONTONAGON COUNTY MI SWWD ACROSS NRN WI. OVER LS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADATE FROM MIXTURE OF WIND AND HAIL TO JUST HAIL...WITH NWD EXTENT. COLD/STABLE AIR MASS DEEPENS WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS LAKE...REDUCING DCAPE AND LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS GENERATED ALOFT TO BE MAINTAINED TO SFC. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA ATOP MARINE LAYER WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED CONVECTION -- SOME WITH STRONG GUSTS SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL -- AMIDST 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44709325 45529290 46179198 46989085 47678891 47708782 46968573 45228574 45288833 44368925 43298948 42809091 44279172 44699166  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 00:21:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 19:21:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280033.j5S0XEwd023905@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280030 MTZ000-280230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539... VALID 280030Z - 280230Z BROKEN LINE OF SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT THROUGH 02Z...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SVR THREAT OVER SERN MT APPEARS TO BE WANING...AND THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WW 539 EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENEWD INTO CENTRAL/NCENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MT. A 50-75 MILE WIDE NW-SE ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY ACROSS NCENTRAL/CENTRAL INTO SERN MT THROUGH THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SVR THREAT WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY POSE A BRIEF SVR THREAT NORTH OF WW 539 NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OF NCENTRAL MT...00Z GGW SOUNDING INDICATES THAT LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER NERN MT SHOULD PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT SPATIAL AREA FOR A NEW WW NNE OF WW 539. FARTHER SE...CIRRUS CANOPY OF SERN MT MAY LIMIT ANY SVR THREAT IN THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED...AND IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS PRIOR TO 02Z...THEN THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED FROM WW 539. ..CROSBIE.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47881197 48991064 48850922 48260808 47440802 45060427 45020878 46590973 47511110  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 00:42:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 19:42:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280053.j5S0rpDM032728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280053 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-280300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCENTRAL SD...ERN WY AND WRN NEB....NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537... VALID 280053Z - 280300Z ISOLATED SUPERCELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF WW 537 AND ACROSS LOGAN COUNTY IN NERN CO THROUGH 02Z WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAINING POSSIBLE. A NEW WW SOUTH OF WW 537 IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED TO ONE OR TWO COUNTIES SOUTH OF WW 537 BEFORE STORM DISSIPATES. FARTHER NORTH...CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER SWRN SD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS SCENTRAL SD AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. GIVEN LIMITED INFLOW EXPECTED INTO SCENTRAL SD THIS EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL JET AXIS PROGGED TO REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH INTO SERN NEB...AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING CINH...A NEW WW EAST OF WW 537 DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SVR THREAT AND ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER FAR ECENTRAL/NERN WY AND FAR SWRN SD ALONG OUTFLOW AND DRYLINE BOUNDARIES AND AHEAD OF WRN WY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ..CROSBIE.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 45010199 42210053 41069997 40770316 41150366 44930591 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 01:05:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 20:05:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280117.j5S1HIJc009736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280116 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280116 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-280315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1514 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NEB...S-CENTRAL/SERN SD...WRN IA. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280116Z - 280315Z SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA DURING NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SEVERAL SOURCES. WW LIKELY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCHING SWWD FROM ERN IA MCS ACROSS EXTREME N-CENTRAL MO TO CASS COUNTY NEB. THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS TO WARM FRONT AND WIND SHIFT LINE WWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL NEB TO NEAR GRI...THEN SWWD TO NEAR MCK. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS QUITE STRONGLY HEATED WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SUITABLE FOR MAINTAINING DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL IN ANY ACTIVITY WHICH USES THAT AIR MASS FOR INFLOW DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS INCLUDES TSTMS DEVELOPING JUST S-SW OMA...AND ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF KS/NEB BORDER BETWEEN MCK-CNK. THEREAFTER...BOUNDARY LAYER ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY WILL DECOUPLE AND THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION N OF BOUNDARY. SUCH CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB...OR WRN NEB/SWRN ND...IN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG OVER WRN PART OF AREA...INCREASING TO 4000 J/KG NEAR MO RIVER WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATER. EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE EVENTUALLY OVER ERN NEB. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 40879507 40419541 40119652 40090002 41109996 43880139 43919900 42969635 41699465 41029456 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 02:31:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 21:31:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280242.j5S2gUq1014172@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280239 NEZ000-SDZ000-280345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1515 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NRN NEB AND SRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537... VALID 280239Z - 280345Z SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS FAR SRN SD AND NRN NEB. A REPLACEMENT SEVERE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON DOWNSTREAM OF WW 537. CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS TODD COUNTY SD/CHERRY CO NEB...HIGHLIGHTED BY SRN EXTENT SUPERCELL APPROX 35 SW OF VALENTINE NEB AT 0230Z. GIVEN EWD PROPAGATION/INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET...NEW REPLACEMENT SEVERE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON DOWNSTREAM ACROSS FAR SRN SD AND NRN NEB. ..GUYER.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43320099 43529927 43599762 42939686 42179698 41859861 41870040  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 03:58:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 22:58:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280409.j5S49dWu019492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280409 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280408 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1516 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN WI...WRN/CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...SRN LS...EXTREME NWRN LM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542... VALID 280408Z - 280545Z MAIN CONVECTIVE CONCERN IS BROADLY ARCHING SQUALL LINE -- EVIDENT AT 4Z FROM EXTREME SERN GOGEBIC COUNTY MI SWWD THROUGH AUW AREA TO ABOUT 50 WNW RST. DAMAGING WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT ACTIVITY GENERALLY IS WEAKENING AS GUST FRONT SURGES AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE CORES. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 8Z EXPIRATION...HOWEVER...SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR TIME BEING ALONG/AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE. AIR MASS AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR SEVERE...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER E-CENTRAL UPPER MI TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN SWRN WI. WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER FLOWS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WITH EWD EXTENT...HOWEVER...INDICATES DIMINISHING PROBABILITY FOR ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG/AHEAD OF GUST FRONT BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN OPTIMALLY UNSTABLE INFLOW WITHOUT BEING UNDERCUT QUICKLY BY OUTFLOW CURRENT. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43439124 45019227 47308738 45688632 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 04:26:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 23:26:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280438.j5S4c64K031348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280437 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280437 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-280600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NEB...EXTREME S-CENTRAL SD...S-CENTRAL/SWRN IA...EXTREME NRN MO...N-CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 541...543... VALID 280437Z - 280600Z WEAKENING TREND NOTED WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ALONG SD/NEB BORDER...AND LACK OF REINTENSIFICATION OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS MAY PROMPT CANCELLATION OF WW 543 BEFORE SCHEDULED 9Z EXPIRATION. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS IN AND NEAR WWS AS OF 415Z...WITH ELEVATED BUOYANCY SUFFICIENT ACROSS MOST OF REGION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SEVERE POTENTIAL. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER IA MCS NOW EXTENDING FROM NWRN IL ACROSS N-CENTRAL MO NWWD INTO VICINITY OF CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER CASS COUNTY NEB FOR SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD REPORTS AS WELL AS AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS WARM FRONT AND WIND SHIFT LINE THERE...WITH FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD ACROSS NWRN KS. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN N OF FRONT WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS STRONGEST ON NRN PORTION OF BROAD/30-40 KT LLJ. THAT REGIME IS RELATIVELY MOIST...SUPPORTING ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AS DETERMINED FROM MODIFIED RAOBS...RUC SOUNDINGS AND PROFILER DATA. MUCAPE DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT INTO SRN IA ATOP OUTFLOW POOL...HOWEVER ELEVATED WAA MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS. ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM OVER SRN IA. STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER PORTIONS N-CENTRAL KS BETWEEN RSL-HLC-CNK...IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS ENTERING WRN PORTIONS WW 541 MAY MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF S-CENTRAL NEB GIVEN FAVORABLE AIR MASS IN FOREGOING INFLOW REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD... 40419522 40249671 39919700 39099743 38889766 38759804 38799875 39469966 40060028 40660142 41130114 41800087 43450070 43459815 41969832 42159520 42119437 41909337 41559286 40979259 40369278 40319422 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 07:47:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 02:47:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506280758.j5S7wo5P011587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280757 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-280930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1518 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB THROUGH WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 541...544... VALID 280757Z - 280930Z THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS FROM ERN NEB INTO WRN IA...BUT OVERALL TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN MN SWWD THROUGH NERN AND SWRN NEB. A MYRIAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXISTS S OF THE FRONT INCLUDING A STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN IA NWWD THROUGH ERN NEB. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SURGING EWD THROUGH S CNTRL NEB. ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLY NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THESE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS RESERVOIR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY FROM NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA IS EXHAUSTED NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID... 41779506 40529566 40309702 40379799 41179780 42269751 42979616 43419491 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 16:58:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 11:58:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281710.j5SH9x4f019457@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281708 MIZ000-281915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1519 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MICHIGAN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 281708Z - 281915Z SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH ISSUANCE. COLD FRONT NEAR APN WSWWD ACROSS LWR MI PENINSULA TO VICINITY MBL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE S. AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT HAS NOW BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE REMAINING CIN AS MLCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WITH ABOUT 20KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVOLVE INTO MULTI-CLUSTER CONVECTION. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. ADDITIONALLY THE STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH THAT SOME TRAINING COULD OCCUR WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..HALES.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 43898631 44388564 45098365 44608339 42958339 42228465 42548627 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 16:59:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 11:59:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281710.j5SHAfxf019800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281710 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281709 NDZ000-MTZ000-281915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1520 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MT...NW/N CNTRL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281709Z - 281915Z WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST THROUGH NORTH OF WOLF POINT MT APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO ZONE OF STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT... ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FORCING WILL DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 21Z. CAPE FOR PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WEAK...BUT BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DEW POINTS NEAR 60F...HAS BEEN ADVECTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MONTANA BORDER AREA PAST FEW HOURS. CONTINUED NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THIS AIR MASS APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. STORMS WILL BE BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...BUT RISK FOR AT LEAST LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... 48330586 48920472 48700313 48790153 48710087 48080021 47320062 47250211 47480404 47540521 47770582 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 17:38:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 12:38:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281749.j5SHnjCY012291@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281749 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281748 COZ000-WYZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-281815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1521 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN UT...WRN CO...NE AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281748Z - 281815Z WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER REMAINS STRONG AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES 50+ KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ON SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF JET... AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS...HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LEE OF THE WASATCH PAST FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO INCREASINGLY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN UTAH...WHERE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS. WITH FURTHER HEATING AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...POTENTIAL FOR BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE AS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND APPROACHES THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER AREA BY AROUND 21Z. ..KERR.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC... 37821267 38711258 40661072 40980978 41100888 40530805 39570849 38180868 37150912 36580967 36491054 37131098 37181165 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 17:38:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 12:38:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281750.j5SHo7X9012517@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281708 MIZ000-281915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1519 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MICHIGAN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 281708Z - 281915Z SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH ISSUANCE. COLD FRONT NEAR APN WSWWD ACROSS LWR MI PENINSULA TO VICINITY MBL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE S. AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT HAS NOW BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE REMAINING CIN AS MLCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WITH ABOUT 20KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVOLVE INTO MULTI-CLUSTER CONVECTION. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. ADDITIONALLY THE STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH THAT SOME TRAINING COULD OCCUR WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..HALES.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 43898631 44388564 45098365 44608339 42958339 42228465 42548627  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 17:39:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 12:39:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281750.j5SHoZov012822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281710 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281709 NDZ000-MTZ000-281915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1520 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MT...NW/N CNTRL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281709Z - 281915Z WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST THROUGH NORTH OF WOLF POINT MT APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO ZONE OF STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT... ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FORCING WILL DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 21Z. CAPE FOR PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WEAK...BUT BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DEW POINTS NEAR 60F...HAS BEEN ADVECTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MONTANA BORDER AREA PAST FEW HOURS. CONTINUED NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THIS AIR MASS APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. STORMS WILL BE BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...BUT RISK FOR AT LEAST LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... 48330586 48920472 48700313 48790153 48710087 48080021 47320062 47250211 47480404 47540521 47770582  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 18:05:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 13:05:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281817.j5SIH8fM030563@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281749 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281748 COZ000-WYZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-281815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1521 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN UT...WRN CO...NE AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281748Z - 281815Z WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER REMAINS STRONG AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES 50+ KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ON SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF JET... AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS...HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LEE OF THE WASATCH PAST FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO INCREASINGLY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN UTAH...WHERE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS. WITH FURTHER HEATING AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...POTENTIAL FOR BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE AS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND APPROACHES THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER AREA BY AROUND 21Z. ..KERR.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC... 37821267 38711258 40661072 40980978 41100888 40530805 39570849 38180868 37150912 36580967 36491054 37131098 37181165  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 18:25:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 13:25:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281837.j5SIbGnV011298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281836 MTZ000-WYZ000-282030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1522 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL MT/N CNTRL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281836Z - 282030Z ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING SOUTH/EAST OF LEWISTOWN...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITHIN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT CAPPING MID- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MORE SPECIFICALLY NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THE BIG HORNS. THIS IS WHERE STRONG DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW IS BECOMING FOCUSED...DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. OROGRAPHIC FORCING SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL STORMS BY 20-21Z...WHEN MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG. GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 46471005 47030939 47140812 46230660 45430601 44500623 44300706 44360803 44700890 45200976 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 19:17:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 14:17:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281929.j5SJTEKj015723@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281918 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-282115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1523 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IND/OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281918Z - 282115Z ...TSTMS MAY PERIODICALLY PRODUCE PULSE TYPE SEVERE WEATHER...BUT MORE ORGANIZED THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED... CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS IND/OH SO FAR HAS BEEN RATHER DISORGANIZED AS EVIDENCED BY PULSE NATURE OF STORMS NOTED ON LOCAL RADARS AND MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THERE IS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE RATHER COOL...AROUND -9C FROM THE 12Z WILMINGTON SOUNDING...WHICH SUPPORTS STEEP LAPSE RATES. FLOW ALOFT THOUGH IS WEAK...WHICH WILL TEND TO DISCOURAGE STORM ORGANIZATION. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-2500 J/KG...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS...THOUGH SHORT LIVED...UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A COLD POOL...THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WOULD DEVELOP...AND A WATCH WOULD BE CONSIDERED. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. ..TAYLOR.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 39628660 40578705 41138670 40478455 40708272 41008082 39968056 39138156 38568260 38908441 38728531  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 19:22:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 14:22:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506281933.j5SJXibd019049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281932 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281932 NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-282130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1524 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281932Z - 282130Z TIMING OF INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WWS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG... WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. INHIBITION APPEARS WEAKEST WHERE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE IS ENHANCED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...AND THIS TERRAIN FEATURE MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. JETLET IN BELT OF FLOW EXTENDING OUT OF TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS ALREADY PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE BLACK HILLS AREA...WITH ANOTHER JET STREAK UPSTREAM NOSING ACROSS THE WYOMING/COLORADO FRONT RANGE. FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES COULD SUPPORT INITIATION OF ACTIVITY AS EARLY AS 21-22Z. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 45270390 44500203 43830091 43380028 43000201 42490258 41860251 41570341 43070393 44620455 44980445 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 19:51:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 14:51:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506282002.j5SK2cPa005137@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282001 KSZ000-COZ000-282100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282001Z - 282100Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. ZONE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/ASCENT EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT BASIN TROUGH. THIS ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...NEAR CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FORCING HAS SUPPORTED RECENT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...TO THE NORTHWEST OF LIBERAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND DEVELOP NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME. CAPE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS MAY LIMIT VIGOR OF UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100F...VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...AND POSSIBLY EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF LARGER SCALE COLD POOL WITH STRONG WIND THREAT. ..KERR.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... 37800191 38200122 39280125 39900066 39749940 38839896 37919957 37430016 37090107 37060253 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 21:40:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 16:40:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506282151.j5SLpNRJ012287@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282150 COZ000-WYZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-282315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1526 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AZ...WRN CO...CENTRAL/ERN UT...PORTIONS EXTREME SRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 545... VALID 282150Z - 282315Z CONVECTIVE WIND DAMAGE THREAT HAS SPREAD EWD INTO PORTIONS WRN CO ...ACROSS ERN COUNTIES OF WW 545. AREA FARTHER NE OVER W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL CO IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NOW OVER PORTIONS W-CENTRAL AND SERN CO WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OVER MORE OF N-CENTRAL AND W-CENTRAL CO DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINTAINING DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL. MEASURED SEVERE GUST OF 54 KT HIT GJT WITHIN PAST HOUR...WITH DAMAGE AND HIGHER PUBLIC ESTIMATES NEARBY...AND 48 KT GUST WAS CLOCKED AT CNY. BROAD PLUME OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW EJECTING NEWD FROM AZ. AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...PRIOR STRONG SFC INSOLATION HAS RESULTED IN WEAK CINH AND FAVORABLY STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS REGION. VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW...ALONG WITH WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS. THIS WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLY DAMAGING GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FROM VALLEY BOTTOMS UP WWD OR SWWD FACING SLOPES. MEANWHILE...SYNOPTIC DRYING HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF NRN AZ...AND THAT AREA HAS BEEN CLEARED FROM WW PER COORDINATION W/FGZ. OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS DRYING WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION INTO SERN UT/SWRN CO...REDUCING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC... 39331211 40791181 41201098 41720824 41670678 41030606 39990561 38330623 37150797 36970902 36780995 37051193 38681214 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 22:05:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 17:05:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506282216.j5SMGp5C027314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282213 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-282345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN CO...SERN WY...SRN NEB PANHANDLE...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282213Z - 282345Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRYLINE FROM WRN-MOST NEB PANHANDLE TO BETWEEN SNY-AKO...THEN SWD ALONG KS/CO BORDER AREA...THROUGH HEAT LOW OVER SERN CO. QUASISTATIONARY CONFLUENCE LINE IS EVIDENT IN SFC WINDS AND GLD REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY...FROM INVOF SCOTT/WALLACE COUNTIES KS NWWD...CROSSING DRYLINE OVER KIT CARSON COUNTY CO AND EXTENDING FARTHER NW TO NEAR AKO. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED BOTH OVER SERN WY INVOF CYS...AND BETWEEN AKO-GXY OVER NERN CO. AS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS DRYLINE AND INTO LARGER SBCAPE...INTENSIFICATION TO SEVERE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE. DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY OCCUR ALONG CONFLUENCE/DRY LINES. HOT SFC TEMPS AND VERY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE EVIDENT E OF DRYLINE -- BOTH N AND S OF CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY...THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS GREATEST N OF LATTER BOUNDARY WHERE SFC FLOW IS ELY-NELY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...AND BACKED FLOW FROM EXTREME NWRN KS NNWWD OVER NEB PANHANDLE IS CONTRIBUTING TO 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR. THIS INDICATES SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS SUSTAINED TO SFC THROUGH SUCH A WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42020085 41200074 40180095 38650095 39130275 40080431 41360486 41950427 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 23:16:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 18:16:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506282327.j5SNRxHT030188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282326 SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-290100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1528 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SD...N-CENTRAL NEB AND NRN NEB PANHANDLE...SWRN ND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 547... VALID 282326Z - 290100Z CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN SD...PRIMARILY IN BROKEN LINE FROM ERN BUTTE COUNTY SEWD TO NEAR PHP...THEN SWD THROUGH JACKSON COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH FULL RANGE OF SEVERE POSSIBLE. ALSO...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING INVOF SFC WARM FRONT/CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDING SEWD FROM W-CENTRAL SD ACROSS CHARLES MIX COUNTY REGION. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM SHERIDAN COUNTY NEB NEWD TO PORTIONS BENNETT COUNTY SD SHOULD MOVE EWD OVER CHERRY COUNTY AND AREAS JUST N OF NEB/SD BORDER. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR BOTH BOW AND SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FROM MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS N-CENTRAL NEB AND CENTRAL/SRN SD SHOW WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUITABLE FOR MAINTAINING SEVERE HAIL/DOWNDRAFTS TO SFC...BENEATH 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. CINH MIN IS EVIDENT INVOF BOUNDARY OVER SRN SD. ACCORDINGLY...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE TSTMS IS POSSIBLE FROM PHP ESEWD ACROSS CHARLES MIX COUNTY...WHERE TCU ARE EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY. MID 60S TO LOW 70S DEW POINTS IN FROM MO RIVER EWD CONTRIBUTE TO NEARLY 4000 J/KG MLCAPE. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ALONG AND N OF BOUNDARY BY BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...RESULTING IN 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM AGL LAYER...AS WELL AS 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...GGW... 42040083 42030335 47050411 47030147 46110101 45079895 44299694 42919685 42749838 42139961 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 23:39:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 18:39:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506282350.j5SNonU0006164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282349 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-290145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 546... VALID 282349Z - 290145Z PRIND CONVECTION NOW OVER E-CENTRAL/SERN MT WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF REMAINDER LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE STILL IN MT. THEREFORE REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION OF WW 546. BROKEN BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 2345Z FROM ERN PETROLEUM/GARFIELD COUNTIES SSEWD ACROSS TREASURE/ERN BIG HORN COUNTIES -- WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEVERE GUSTS/HAIL AND RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES. SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES EACH ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCH DIAMETER IN BIG HORN COUNTY DURING PAST HOUR. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGER WITH ACTIVITY OVER SRN PORTION OF BAND...WHERE COMBINATION OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS GREATEST. ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEE-SIDE SFC LOW -- ANALYZED OVER N-CENTRAL WY -- WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN STRONG ELY SFC WND COMPONENT OVER SERN MT...ENLARGING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 25-35 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES 2500-3000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF E-CENTRAL/SERN MT INVOF SFC MOIST AXIS...WHERE DEW POINTS REACH INTO MID 60S F. ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 45240397 45040846 48790848 49020395 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 00:34:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 19:34:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506290046.j5T0k3k0030486@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290044 COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-290145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1530 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN UT AND WRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 545... VALID 290044Z - 290145Z DEEP-LAYER DRYING HAD MOVED ACROSS MORE OF SRN UT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION INTO SWRN CO AND SERN UT. THIS PROCESS WILL END SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM SW-NE. AHEAD OF DRYING...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE STABILIZED BY CLOUDS/PRECIP FROM PAST AND PRESENT CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS FACING SW...SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY OVER ERN UT AND WRN CO FROM REMAINING ACTIVITY. THEREFORE...WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION. ..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...SLC... 40720669 40080627 39410612 38340614 37290665 36960748 37250948 38591020 40431063 40900930 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 01:38:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 20:38:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506290149.j5T1nrWp027321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290148 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-290345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1531 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0848 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...NRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290148Z - 290345Z TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SWATH FROM W-CENTRAL KS TO NWRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE EVENING. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM SRN ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES...PRIND LARGEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE WITH TSTMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS WRN KS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ACTIVITY IS FCST TO SPREAD/MOVE NEWD INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...AND INTO STRENGTHENING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SUPPORTED BY 30-40 KT LLJ. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES 7.5-8.5 DEG C/KM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER REGION. INFLOW-LAYER BUOYANCY WILL TRANSITION FROM SFC-BASED WITH CONSIDERABLE CINH -- AS EVIDENT IN 00Z DDC RAOB -- TO ELEVATED MUCAPES APCHG 1500 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RAOB AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. DEEP-LAYER ABSOLUTE SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER WEAK - I.E. 25-30 KT 0-6 KM LAYER SHEAR...HOWEVER EFFECTIVE SHEARS MAY REACH INTO 30-40 KT RANGE. PRESENCE OF LARGE CINH INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE SOON...PERHAPS CONSOLIDATING INTO DOMINANT MULTICELL CLUSTER. ..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35630302 36480269 37230176 38130149 39050172 39390172 39890116 39980050 39939991 39349934 38889891 38469887 37939887 37249936 36879977 36310046 35470247 35270277 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 03:05:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 22:05:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506290317.j5T3HA83003375@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290315 SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-290415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL SD...N-CENTRAL/NWRN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547...549... VALID 290315Z - 290415Z REPLACEMENT SEVERE TSTM WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT HOUR FOR MUCH OF AREA COVERED BY WW 547...AS WELL AS WRN PORTIONS WW 549 -- GENERALLY W OF MO RIVER. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING...AND RESULTANT FORMATION/DEEPENING OF NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER. SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING GUST THREAT CONTINUES WITH ANY NEW CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER WW AREA. SAME WITH EXISTING CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN NEB PANHANDLE...AND WITH ISOLATED CLUSTER OF TSTMS BACKBUILDING ACROSS PORTIONS ZIEBACH COUNTY. SFC AND 850 MB ANALYSES INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS REMAINING ALIGNED SE-NW...DIAGONALLY ACROSS SD FROM YKN-2WX. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE...RICH MOISTURE AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BUOYANCY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES COMMONLY 2000-3000 J/KG. ROUGHLY 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INDICATED AS WELL...BASED ON MODIFIED LBF/RAP RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL CINH OVER AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF FORCED ASCENT ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SURGES. ..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42060262 42720288 43300244 43730215 44860243 45270315 45410348 45710370 45920326 45980183 45940114 45550028 44889908 44279868 43619825 43089856 42599968 42210056 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 03:23:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 22:23:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506290335.j5T3Z20e011618@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290334 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290334 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-290500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN NEB...NERN CO...SERN PANHANDLE OF NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 548... VALID 290334Z - 290500Z INITIAL SEVERE TSTMS OVER LOGAN COUNTY CO DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO MORE UNSTABLE/MOIST AIR MASS...BUT ALSO MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MODIFIED LBF RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 2000-3000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT ALSO STRONG CINH. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUSLY SEVERE FRONT RANGE CONVECTION IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS KIMBALL COUNTY NEB...EXTREME WRN LOGAN/ERN MORGAN COUNTIES CO AS OF 315Z. GLACIATING CONVECTIVE TOWERS HAVE BEEN INDICATED OVER MORGAN COUNTY ON IR IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN WW IS NONEXISTENT ATTM...HOWEVER AIR MASS ACROSS WW AREA REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE FROM ANY CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THEREFORE WRN PORTION WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR TIME BEING. HOWEVER...SUCH CONVECTION WOULD NOT REACH ERN COUNTIES OF WW BEFORE SCHEDULED 5Z EXPIRATION...FROM HITCHCOCK NWD TO MCPHERSON AND FARTHER E...AND THOSE AREAS MAY BE CLEARED FROM THIS WW. ..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 39979988 39960273 41900318 41890028 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 04:02:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 23:02:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506290414.j5T4E0eR028325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290411 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-290545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1534 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN/CENTRAL ND...EXTREME NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550... VALID 290411Z - 290545Z MAINTAIN CURRENT WW ALONG/AHEAD OF SERN MT MCS. ADDITIONALLY...PORTIONS ND E OF WW 550 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ANOTHER SEVERE TSTM WW. ARCHING BAND OF TSTMS WITH HISTORY OF NUMEROUS SEVERE WIND/HAIL REPORTS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOVING NEWD ACROSS SERN MT INTO SWRN ND. NRN PORTION OF COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS OVER NERN MT/NWRN ND. HOWEVER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE ACROSS REMAINDER SERN MT AND WRN/CENTRAL ND...BOTH FOR MCS AND FOR NEWER DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC FORCING ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN ND. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN ID/WRN MT -- HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE EWD. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES...FOREGOING PRESSURE/HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE...NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN PORTIONS WY/MT BORDER...LIFTING NEWD INTO SWRN ND. ASSOCIATED BACKING/STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL YIELD STRONG STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR...ABOVE STABLE SFC LAYER. LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS -- INITIALLY ALIGNED FROM SERN SD NWWD TO SERN MT -- SHOULD SHIFT NWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL ND NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WAA/MOIST ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BOOST ELEVATED MUCAPES INTO 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE OVER MUCH OF SRN/WRN ND. THEREFORE...EXPECT MCS TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF THAT REGION...WITH THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 49010006 48669967 47639931 46889934 46619951 46269996 46080044 46020111 45540283 45280408 45130494 45270548 45480557 45810499 46270480 47140495 47890545 48990674 48980404 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 06:20:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 01:20:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506290631.j5T6Vg9l017707@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290630 NEZ000-SDZ000-290800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1535 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB AND SRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290630Z - 290800Z THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH STORMS MOVING THROUGH CHERRY COUNTY NEB...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO EXTREME SRN SD. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO GRADUAL WEAKENING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NEXT HOUR OR SO AS STORMS MOVE EWD THROUGH CHERRY COUNTY. EARLY THIS MORNING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CHERRY COUNTY IN WRN NEB SSWWD INTO NERN CO. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ON THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER CHERRY COUNTY MOVING EWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. STRONG INSTABILITY PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS WITH MUCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC AND NAM OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML EXISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS AND SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE PROLONGED SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...UNR... 41920124 43210116 43199938 42359897 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 07:37:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 02:37:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506290748.j5T7mH27013657@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290747 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290747 SDZ000-290915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1536 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 551... VALID 290747Z - 290915Z CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER N CNTRL SD MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE NEWD NEXT HOUR OR TWO. STORMS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING E OF WW 551 INTO NERN SD...BUT ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION N OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL SD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. WITH A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP E OF WW 551 INTO PARTS OF NERN SD NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS SUGGESTS A WW E OF WW 551 WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED. ..DIAL.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... 44439842 45020070 45670062 45939871 45329774 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 08:52:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 03:52:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506290904.j5T940IE017464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290903 NDZ000-291030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0403 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 552... VALID 290903Z - 291030Z MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS PERSISTS WITH LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL ND. OTHER STORMS MAY MOVE INTO SERN ND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH A THREAT OF PRODUCING MAINLY LARGE HAIL. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS TROUGH CNTRL ND FROM MINOT SWD TO BISMARK. THE PORTION OF THE LINE OVER CNTRL ND IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 25 KT. THE LINE REMAINS SEMI-ORGANIZED WITH A ROTATING COMMA HEAD OBSERVED NEAR MINOT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY PRESENCE OF A COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION OVER NERN SD AND WILL LIKELY LIFT NEWD INTO SERN ND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 47709897 46169787 46009972 46220063 47320022 48150044 48600036 48819967 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 15:51:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 10:51:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506291602.j5TG2M7U021600@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291601 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291601 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-291700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291601Z - 291700Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. WARM SECTOR SOUTHEAST OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IS VERY MOIST AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE HEATING. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRENGTH OF CAP FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS IS STILL A CONCERN...BUT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF DEEPENING LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THIS. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF ABERDEEN...JUST AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DRYING...NOSING INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THAT...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD THE JAMESTOWN/FARGO ND AND ALEXANDRIA MN AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS...STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 18-20Z...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS LIKELY. ..KERR.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 45789932 46659878 46599685 46319535 45459513 44789539 44219632 44439752 44619827 44999910 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 16:04:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 11:04:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506291615.j5TGFUVm031019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291614 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291614 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-291815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1539 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO CNTRL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291614Z - 291815Z ...STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO CNTRL PA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN...ISOLD SVR THREAT PERSISTS AND A WATCH MAY BE POSSIBLE... CURRENT WV IMAGES SUGGEST MCV APPROACHING SRN VT WITH A MORE WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL OH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOW/MID 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/ . THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT NOW EXTENDING ACROSS SERN ONTARIO/NRN NY WILL BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR STORMS THIS AFTN. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM GRAY ME AND ALBANY INDICATE ABOUT 20-25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 IN...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH TRAINING/MERGING CELLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT...SO DOWNDRAFT CAPE WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THOSE AREAS WHERE INSOLATION IS GREATEST. WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH ONGOING STORMS DEVELOPING FROM ERN PA THROUGH SERN NY...OR POSSIBLY LATER THIS AFTN IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH IN OH VALLEY REGION. ..TAYLOR.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 43916979 41977098 40537433 39637755 41167766 42687600 43747360 44057268 44507105 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 17:46:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 12:46:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506291757.j5THvN3W001681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291756 INZ000-ILZ000-292000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1540 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN IL INTO CNTRL IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291756Z - 292000Z ...THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NRN/ERN IL INTO CNTRL IND... DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF DBQ NEAR FEP/JOT IN NRN IL AND THEN INTO NRN IND WITH A LAKE BREEZE EVIDENT ACROSS EXTREME NERN IL WEST OF ORD. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NERN IL AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH VERY MOIST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 18Z SOUNDING FROM DAVENPORT IA SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 25 KT...SO ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE FAVORED GIVEN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ..TAYLOR.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 39148503 39438823 41528976 42068972 42068886 41398730 40958517 39878492 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 18:42:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 13:42:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506291853.j5TIrgFL005380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291852 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1541 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND...ERN SD...WRN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 553... VALID 291852Z - 292045Z CONTINUE WW. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...IS ONGOING NEAR ABERDEEN SD. THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN. STRONGER 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOW FOCUSED ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF LOW INTO AREAS OF MINNESOTA EAST OF FARGO. ...AND NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATION OF SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. WARM FRONT...JUST EAST OF LOW...WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. NEW STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY 20-21Z...ALONG PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHEAST OF LOW...AS IT SHIFTS INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MINNESOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS PIVOTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...WITH STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 45489922 46089865 46199760 46039662 44809578 43909640 43959716 44539786 44619836 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 19:35:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 14:35:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506291946.j5TJkiIZ008636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291946 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291945 MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1542 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...KS/SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291945Z - 292145Z ...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BEING MONITORED ACROSS KS AND SERN NEB. WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY WITHIN AN HOUR... LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM GARDEN CITY TO JUST NORTH OF HAYS AND THEN INTO SERN NEB. FIRST SIGNS OF SFC BASED CUMULUS ARE NOTED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...COINCIDENT WITH DEEPER MIXING. AIRMASS IS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S TO AROUND 100 AT RUSSELL. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 KT OF FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE TSTMS ONCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS COMPLETELY ERODED. IN ADDITION 18Z NAM SUGGESTS A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..TAYLOR.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 37349826 37000191 38290198 38680070 39229934 40869681 40539568 38319628 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 20:27:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 15:27:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506292038.j5TKck9V012902@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292037 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1543 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 553... VALID 292037Z - 292130Z SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING NORTHEAST/EAST OF WW 553. WW 553 IS BEING REPLACED WITH NEW TORNADO WW 554. CONSOLIDATION OF ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...CONTINUES FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER SYSTEM IS NOW UNDERWAY...WITH LOW CENTER NOW BELOW 1000 MB EAST/NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN SD. SHEAR PROFILES ALONG STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET EAST OF CYCLONE HAVE BECOME STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF MINNESOTA...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY AS MOIST WARM SECTOR ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF SURFACE LOW...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT INCREASING/INTENSIFYING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER. GIVEN FAVORABLE FORCING...LARGE SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE THIS EVENING ACROSS MINNESOTA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING HOW FAST TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FROM ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT...BUT THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT RISK FOR TORNADOES...BEFORE BROADER SCALE WIND THREAT BECOMES PREDOMINANT LATER THIS EVENING ..KERR.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 46299765 47429702 47429473 45969404 44219478 43539602 43909664 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 23:26:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 18:26:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506292337.j5TNbsHe011235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292337 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-300100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1544 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MN/NWRN IA/WRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 554... VALID 292337Z - 300100Z PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN PARTS OF MN...WITH MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EVIDENT OVER SWRN MN COUNTIES OF RENVILLE...REDWOOD...COTTONWOOD...JACKSON. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WHERE FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ PERSISTS. THE WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...AND FAVORABLE CLOCKWISE TURNING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH AT MPX WITH 0-1 KM SRH GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2 SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD AT 30-40 KT REACHING THE ERN EDGE OF WW 554 IN THE 0030-0130Z TIME FRAME. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE COOL TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE STRONG EAST/WEST THERMAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF DLH. THUS...NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF MN AND WRN WI WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO EAST OF CURRENT WW. ..WEISS.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... 47029411 47119356 46559234 45639192 43809123 43499193 43529311 43849367 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 23:39:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 18:39:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506292351.j5TNp67H016959@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292350 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/WRN IA/CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 555... VALID 292350Z - 300115Z ...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN... A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST OF FORT DODGE IA SWWD TO HAYS KS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 60-70 MPH. SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH PERIODIC LARGE HAIL. THE AIRMASS ACROSS IA AND SERN NEB IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S/70S. FARTHER SOUTHWEST...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DEEPLY MIXED WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S. WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS FAR SOUTHWEST...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ACROSS SE NEB WHERE ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. ..TAYLOR.. 06/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 39099568 37879843 37789970 38570020 39479798 41529693 41719589 41709396 41619410 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 01:50:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 20:50:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506300201.j5U21wdo005088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300159 IAZ000-300330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1546 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0859 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 300159Z - 300330Z MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE INTO REMAINDER OF CNTRL/ERN IA EAST OF EXISTING WW 555...WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. PRIMARY HAZARD EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. MULTIPLE SEVERE TSTM CLUSTERS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE ONGOING AT 0145Z FROM NEAR WEBSTER CITY/FORT DODGE VICINITIES...INTO SW IA NEAR SHENANDOAH/RED OAK AREAS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE /REF 00Z DVN OBSERVED RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS/. WITH CONTINUAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...IT APPEARS STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD INTO ERN IA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FROM I-80 NORTHWARD. DES MOINES WSR-88D VAD/SLATER IA PROFILER FEATURE VERY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED/ISOLD TORNADOES /0-1 KM BULK SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KTS/. WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. ..GUYER.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43399261 43399173 43349131 42269143 40729243 40709330 40689439 41539398 42529347 43229314 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 02:13:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 21:13:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506300224.j5U2OKNP014995@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300223 MNZ000-IAZ000-300430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1547 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL IA/S CNTRL MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 554... VALID 300223Z - 300430Z A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN MN WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING INTO N CNTRL IA. MN STORMS HAVE OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITED SIGNS OF ROTATION...AND LATEST MPX VAD PROFILE MAINTAINS WELL-DEFINED CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPH WITH SRH EXCEEDING 400 M2/S2 IN THE LOWEST 1-3 KM. CONTINUED FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD ACROSS SRN MN SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT /INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES/ WILL PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ENEWD 35 KT INTO THE WRN PARTS OF WW 557 IN THE 03-04Z PERIOD INDICATING WW 554 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 04Z. ..WEISS.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX... 42959460 43669478 44719479 45709458 46319410 45719388 44599364 43659361 42949382 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 03:18:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 22:18:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506300330.j5U3U65Z011053@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300328 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1548 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE NEB/NE KS/FAR NW MO INTO WCNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 555... VALID 300328Z - 300430Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF SEVERE WATCH 555 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 04Z. ONGOING CONVECTION /AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT/ IN SW IA/WCNTRL IA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT EWD OUT OF WW 555 AT THIS TIME...WHILE STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR NW MO SHORTLY. FURTHER SW ACROSS FAR SE NEB/NE KS...TSTMS ONGOING NORTH OF CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT. IN THIS AREA...COMBINATION OF LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/GLANCING DYNAMIC ASCENT SUGGESTS DOWNWARD CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TREND WILL CONTINUE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH EPISODIC LARGE HAIL MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN NE KS. ..GUYER.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39819791 40099613 41319533 41349488 40639449 39909440 39139535 39089841 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 04:12:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 23:12:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506300424.j5U4O47C031912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300423 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300423 WIZ000-300530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1549 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 300423Z - 300530Z SMALL BOW ECHO SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OVER EXTREME NERN IA MOVING ENEWD 50-60 KT TOWARD VERNON AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN WI...WITH SEPARATE BOWING SEGMENTS INDICATED OVER EXTREME WEST CENTRAL WI. THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST OF WWS 557 AND 558 WITHIN THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES...AND A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF THIS AREA INTO CNTRL WI. ..WEISS.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43699061 44859109 45609111 46039040 46058960 45528901 43988882 43088889 42608935 42539006 42809042 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 04:44:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 23:44:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506300455.j5U4tqAU010939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300455 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300454 WIZ000-MNZ000-300700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN/NWRN WI/WRN ALS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 556... VALID 300454Z - 300700Z CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING NEWD INTO NWRN WI IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. EAST/WEST QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM SRN AITKIN COUNTY MN INTO BAYFIELD COUNTY WI IS EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE NRN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT...WITH STORMS GENERALLY WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER/STABLE AIR MASS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO NWRN WI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..WEISS.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... 45929318 46389296 46729217 47079170 47169116 46759062 46029064 45679085 45649204 45799283 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 12:17:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 07:17:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506301228.j5UCSd1G032149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301227 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-301430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LOWER MI...NRN IND THROUGH NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301227Z - 301430Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND IF A GENERAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS OBSERVED...A WW MIGHT BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MORNING A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM WRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO NWRN IND. THE LINE IS MOVING EWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. STORMS WITHIN THE LINE APPEAR TO BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...AND LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FROM ERN LOWER MI INTO OH. THEREFORE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING...AND STORMS MIGHT UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. ..DIAL.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41438614 42528502 43528402 42928288 41218402 41008554 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 15:23:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 10:23:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506301535.j5UFZ8Kq020677@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301534 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301533 MIZ000-OHZ000-301730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1552 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561... VALID 301533Z - 301730Z LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ADVANCED EWD EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM WRN OAKLAND COUNTY SWWD INTO WRN LENAWEE COUNTY IN MI...THRU FULTON...HENRY...PUTNAM...NWRN ALLEN AND MERCER COUNTIES IN OH. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG. SLIGHT PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS NRN OHIO. THUS...WITH CONTINUED HEATING AHEAD OF THE LINE...THE AREA EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STEEPENING LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THEREFORE WILL NEED TO MONITOR NRN HALF OF OHIO FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41158474 41378468 41598459 41908458 42168453 42558404 42748376 42808363 42828322 42818294 42828244 42698240 42438257 41828284 41488302 40978323 40758333 40778357 40758420 40758476 40938478 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 17:38:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 12:38:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506301750.j5UHo7gL013214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301747 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301746 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-301945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1553 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...KS/NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301746Z - 301945Z ...AREA OF STORMS ACROSS NERN KS/NRN MO IS BEING MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION... SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW IN ERN OK PANHANDLE THROUGH CNTRL KS AND SRN IA. HOWEVER...AREA OF CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS NE KS/NRN MO HAS RESULTED IN A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...WHICH LIES IN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION JUST NORTH OF SALINA AND EMPORIA. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING. SOUTH OF THE KS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 90S...CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. RECENT VAD WIND DATA FROM TOPEKA AS WELL AS KS PROFILER DATA SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 35-40 KT. INITIAL THREAT WITH ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT AS STORMS BECOME MORE DEEPLY ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. WATCH WILL BE LIKELY BY AROUND 21Z. ..TAYLOR.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 38939168 38259446 37869805 38799865 40079858 40839735 40979505 41019281 40819146 40439110 39629099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 18:17:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 13:17:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506301828.j5UISUfI006107@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301827 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-302030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN OH INTO NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562... VALID 301827Z - 302030Z LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTEND FROM THE CLE AREA SWWD ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...THEN SWD THRU THE CMH AREA THEN JUST N OF CINCINNATI. ACTIVITY IS WITHIN AREA OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...AND RAIN-COOLED AIR IS PRESSING ACTIVITY SEWD THRU CENTRAL OH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39818373 40118339 40738279 41398207 41838140 41898076 41907976 41737979 41258001 40888018 40328051 39918069 39628085 39668212 39598283 39618347 39638380 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 18:59:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 13:59:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506301910.j5UJAYUa031539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301909 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301909 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-302045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MI SWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL INDIANA AND EAST CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301909Z - 302045Z MONITORING SWRN LOWER MI...NRN/CENTRAL INDIANA AND EAST CENTRAL IL FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SKIES CLEARED BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 90 DEGREES...RESULTING IN MLCAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LAKE MI SWD INTO EXTREME NWRN INDIANA AND THEN SWD INTO CENTRAL. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS EWD MOVING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS SPEED MAX IN IA SHIFTS EWD AND STRENGTHENS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH AREA MAY STILL BE EXPERIENCING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MCS IN OH...EXPECT SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...WW WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ..IMY.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX... 39488884 41198724 43008608 42898510 42088459 41578462 38188526 37918665 38548819 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 19:33:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 14:33:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506301944.j5UJirF0021504@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301943 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301943 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-302045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1556 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO AND SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301943Z - 302045Z ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ACROSS SRN MO/SRN IL MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND/HAIL...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME DOWNDRAFT DOMINATED...WITH SHORT LIVED WIND/HAIL THREATS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION STRETCHED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR 50 S SZL TO TBN TO MVN. THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. WEAK NLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND SLY TO THE SOUTH HAS RESULTED IN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. GIVEN WEAK CAP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD STORMS TO DEVELOP NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AN ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD MERGE...REDUCING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..IMY.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 37919423 37719245 37819079 38348910 38398833 37778737 36748926 36369137 36669331 37189439 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 20:18:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 15:18:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506302029.j5UKTYKL016591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302028 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-302230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1557 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS/NW OK/EXTREME NERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302028Z - 302230Z ...AREA BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE WW... SFC LOW IS DEEPENING ACROSS SW KS BETWEEN PTT AND DDC...WITH SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD TO GUYMON AND FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EWD FROM GCK TO NORTH OF EMP. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INDICATIVE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/DEEPER MIXING. STORMS SOUTH OF P28 ARE STILL ELEVATED ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST STRONG UPDRAFTS. AIRMASS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. 18Z SOUNDING FROM LAMONT OK SHOWED JUST A WEAK CAP AROUND 700 MB...AND WITH SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE INHIBITION IS ERODED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GETTING STRONGER AS WELL...WITH KS PROFILERS INDICATING VALUES AROUND 40 KT. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS LIKELY TO FORM LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. ..TAYLOR.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36329762 35889975 35980080 36810135 37930107 38500013 38649892 38149799 37299746 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 20:37:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 15:37:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506302048.j5UKmBvm027813@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302047 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-302215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1558 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KY/EXTREME SRN OH AND WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564... VALID 302047Z - 302215Z STRONG/SEVERE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SSEWD AT 30 KT THROUGH WW 564. AT 2045Z...STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM 30 E LEX TO 30 NW CRW TO PKB. ALTHOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED DURING THE PAST HOUR...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH A HOT AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GIVEN THE ORGANIZED COLD POOL/BUBBLE HIGH... DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..IMY.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 38748412 39558099 39668015 38368032 37688166 36998350 37258411 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 21:04:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 16:04:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506302115.j5ULFhvq013571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302114 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-302315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0414 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302114Z - 302315Z ...STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO FOOTHILLS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING... UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME HAS BEGUN ACROSS ERN CO/NERN NM...WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 50S IN SE CO. SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING OUT OF NERN MN IS INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO AROUND 40-50 KT PER ERN CO PROFILER DATA. WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT...SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS DEWPOINTS AND WIND FIELDS RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS AFTN...WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE CO FOOTHILLS/ERN PLAINS. ..TAYLOR.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36300280 36520496 39490591 40660540 40840450 40680310 39610262 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 22:35:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 17:35:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506302246.j5UMkecq032020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302245 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-010015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1560 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...KS/WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 563... VALID 302245Z - 010015Z INSTABILITY AXIS NOW EXTENDS FROM MEDICINE LODGE TO NEAR TOPEKA WHERE MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO NEARLY 3000 J/KG. SFC BOUNDARY NOTED ON WICHITA RADAR IS MOVING SWD...AND RECENTLY HELPED TRIGGER SFC BASED STORMS EAST OF HUTCHINSON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY...AS BOTH VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS AND COMPOSITE RADAR SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER ROLLS MOVING NWD INTO SCNTRL KS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FARTHER NORTH...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS...WITH GOLFBALL HAIL RECENTLY REPORTED IN SHAWNEE COUNTY KS. UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TOWARD MANHATTAN...WHILE IT ALSO MOVES SEWD ON THE ERN FLANK ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SCNTRL MO. ..TAYLOR.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36379747 36489930 38189898 39219608 39299385 38409347 37919412 36999587 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 22:55:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 17:55:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506302306.j5UN6MTs008168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302305 VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-010030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1561 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV / PARTS OF NERN KY INTO FAR SWRN OH / WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564... VALID 302305Z - 010030Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW...THOUGH A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN AN ARC ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WRN PA SWD INTO SRN WV AND THEN WWD ACROSS ERN KY. IN THE PAST HOUR...NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG WRN EXTENSION OF THIS OUTFLOW...FROM CENTRAL KY NWD INTO FAR SWRN OH JUST W OF WW. ASIDE FROM NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WRN EXTENTION OF OUTFLOW...STORMS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. THOUGH THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...A LIMITED / LOW-END SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS AS CONVECTION MOVES SWD ACROSS ERN KY / SEWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF VA. THOUGH STORMS ALONG WRN EXTENSION OF OUTFLOW MAY ALSO POSE A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT...STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY DRIFT EWD / BECOME FURTHER UNDERCUT BY COOL OUTFLOW AIR. ATTM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ONGOING STORMS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION...WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL WW 564 PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 01/03Z EXPIRATION AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGES THROUGH REMAINING COUNTIES WITHIN WW. ..GOSS.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 39318434 38458401 37598287 37578199 38128130 39008037 39237992 38637930 38167947 37318029 36758161 36688264 36848387 37248425 38048474 39038489 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 23:05:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 18:05:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200506302316.j5UNGoGK013112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302316 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-010045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI / NRN AND CENTRAL INDIANA / WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 565... VALID 302316Z - 010045Z STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WW...ACCOMPANIED BY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP / MOVE EWD ACROSS E CENTRAL AND NERN INDIANA ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS...THUS EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. WITH CONVECTION NEARING ERN PORTIONS OF WW...NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED E OF CURRENT WW INTO WRN OH. THOUGH LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS E OF WWD-MOVING OUTFLOW WHICH NOW EXTENDS N-S ACROSS THE ERN-MOST TIER OF INDIANA COUNTIES...SEVERE THREAT -- AT LEAST IN TERMS OF HAIL -- MAY EXTEND AS FAR EWD AS THE WRN THIRD OF OH. ..GOSS.. 06/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...ILX... 42908461 42748400 41668359 40908336 39708369 39208447 39418761 40798596 WWWW