[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010000 
AZZ000-010200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1908
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO AREA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 010000Z - 010200Z

DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PHOENIX METRO AREA
DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LOCALIZED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL
PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.

AT 2350Z...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER THAT FORMED ACROSS THE SERN AZ MTNS
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WNWWD TOWARD THE LOWER ELEVATION
VALLEYS/BASINS OF S-CENTRAL AZ. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 100F AROUND PHX...CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF STORMS AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT GUST FRONT AND A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE PHX METRO AREA THROUGH 0130Z.  REMNANT
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE S-CENTRAL
AZ/MEXICO BORDER...MAY ALSO BE AIDING LOW-LEVEL SELY STEERING FLOW
AND MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD PHX.
LEADING GUST FRONT EMANATING FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOVING WWD
AT AROUND 30 KT. EVAPORATIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE
INTO DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
AROUND 40F. THIS MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PHX METRO AREA THROUGH 0130Z.

..BANACOS.. 08/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

33701237 33841205 33841168 33661141 33381111 33151107
32961107 32731131 32711172 32751203 32951235 33141250
33411252 

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