[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272144 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-272345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR/FAR NRN LA INTO NW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 272144Z - 272345Z

ISOLD PULSE-TYPE DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF
2 IN/HR CAN BE EXPECTED.

PERSISTENT COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESSIVELY EVOLVE
ACROSS SW AR AT THIS TIME. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING INVOF SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT...WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOL/MCV EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FURTHER
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/EWD EXPANSION ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SRN AR/FAR NRN LA INTO NW MS. DOWNSTREAM AMBIENT AIRMASS IS
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR/SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES OF 2
IN/HR CAN BE EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 07/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

33969320 34259271 34889170 34788935 34158920 33349022
32439323 32389424 33279439 33689369 

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