[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252334 
VAZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-260030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MD...SOUTH CENTRAL PA...NRN VA AND ERN VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683...

VALID 252334Z - 260030Z

STORM INTENSIFICATION STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN HALF OF
WW.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION FROM EARLIER BOW HAS WEAKENED AS IT HAS MOVED
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD
AND AT 2330Z EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM 25 SW AOO TO 40 E EKN TO 35 ENE
SSU. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE WW WAS VERY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 3000-4000 J/KG...WITH THE EFFECTIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35 KT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER STORMS
WILL REDEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SEWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IF SO...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE. IF STORMS DO
NOT DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED
EARLY.

..IMY.. 07/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

39397865 39917840 39957769 38587778 37807778 37757858
37757962 38097957 38707904 

WWWW