[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250328 
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-250500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1854
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA AND EXTREME ERN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 250328Z - 250500Z

MONITORING PORTIONS OF WRN PA AND EXTREME ERN OH FOR AN INCREASING
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND POSSIBLE WW LATER TONIGHT.

A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS REMAINED
QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 1-2 HOURS OVER EXTREME SWRN ONTARIO
AND INTO PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-4000
J/KG...WERE FEEDING EWD FROM NWRN OH AND LOWER MI INTO THESE STORMS.
DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE SSEWD ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS THAT STRETCHED SWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN OH/WRN PA.
WARM MID LEVEL WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT HAIL THREAT...BUT THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS LIKELY BEEN PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS...AND
SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP A COLD POOL. ONCE A COLD POOL DEVELOPS...THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT AS THE STORMS SPREAD SWD.

..IMY.. 07/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

41638129 42507921 41697876 40757876 39687915 39598085
39648133 

WWWW