[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211955 
MOZ000-KSZ000-212130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211955Z - 212130Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NE KS AND NW
MO. THE STORMS WILL MAY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS
AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE AIRMASS ACROSS NE KS AND NW
MO IS STILL SLIGHTLY CAPPED. APPARENTLY...ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED FROM ERN IA EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS MO IS
AIDING STORM INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF KANSAS CITY. THE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 65 TO 75 F. THE KANSAS CITY PROFILER
CURRENTLY SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 07/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

37539330 37739496 38329577 39149604 39549452 39749341
39089277 38159240 

WWWW