[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201609
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201609 
TXZ000-201715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL IL AND NRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201609Z - 201715Z

CONVECTIVE LINE OVER ERN IA APPEARS TO BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BDRY
LAYER...AND THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER NRN IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THE AREA SHORTLY.

REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATES 40 KT REAR INFLOW JET AROUND 2 KM OVER
ERN IA. DESPITE MARGINAL MID LEVEL WINDS...STRENGTH OF PRESSURE
RISES /2-3 MB PER HOUR/ OVER ERN IA WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL IL AND EVENTUALLY NRN
IND OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HRS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z
SOUNDING SUGGESTS LITTLE REMAINING CINH...AND OVER 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. THUS THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH
CONVECTIVE LINE BY 18Z.

..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

28109622 25699712 25699931 28109853 

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