[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201055 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-201230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1793
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN...CNTRL/SRN WI...IA...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649...

VALID 201055Z - 201230Z

NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...MUCH IF NOT ALL OF REMAINING VALID
PORTION OF WW MAY BE CLEARED/CANCELLED BEFORE 14Z EXPIRATION.

LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA WITHIN STRONG LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS
HAVE GENERALLY MERGED...AND CONGLOMERATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
ADVANCE INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

EVEN WITH ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THESE AREAS...SMALL
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL ACROSS GUST FRONT SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  WITH BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED
THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY...AND CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET
WEAKENING...MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY 13-15Z.  ACTIVITY NEAR INTERSECTION OF LOW-LEVEL JET
AXIS AND STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SIOUX CITY IA
MAY BE SLOWEST TO WEAKEN...BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE CELLS.

..KERR.. 07/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

42709580 43119354 44179315 45269316 46059214 45359045
43679010 42449086 41759284 41629490 41659621 41959675