[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200823 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-201030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...NRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649...

VALID 200823Z - 201030Z

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...AND TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBILITY OF NEW WW TO THE EAST OF WW 649.

MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER BELT OF STRONGER FLOW
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD AROUND NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.  EXIT
REGION OF THIS JET IS SLOWLY NOSING INTO AREAS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ONGOING CLUSTERS
OF STORMS IN NORTH-SOUTH BAND FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

CONSOLIDATION INTO ONE LARGE CLUSTER MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS ON NOSE OF 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE...AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS...REFLECTED BY LEADING EDGE OF 70F+ DEW POINTS...FEEDS INTO
ACTIVITY...ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE. GIVEN MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH ASSOCIATED RISK
OF STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL JET LIKELY WILL
SUPPORT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHER IOWA THROUGH DAYBREAK.

..KERR.. 07/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

44579510 44529367 44089286 43569137 42849102 42039125
42049270 42119417 42069560 42389617 43299601 44009572 

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