[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200418
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200418 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-200545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD INTO EXTREME NERN NEB...SWRN MN AND NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 200418Z - 200545Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW NEXT HOUR OR
TWO FROM PARTS OF ERN SD AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME NERN NEB...SWRN
MN AND NWRN IA.

A CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD FROM CNTRL THROUGH NERN
SD. ANOTHER STORM HAD INTENSIFIED ALONG THE NERN NEB SERN SD BORDER.
A STRONG 45+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
GRADUALLY VEER WITH TIME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES EWD
THROUGH SD. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH ERN SD AND INTO EXTREME NERN NEB OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME WARMING IN THE 1.5-3 KM LAYER
WILL ALSO OCCUR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...AND THIS MAY ACT
TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP AND SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR.
ASSUMING LIFT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME EFFECTS OF THE
CAP...MUCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 07/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

42649677 43839910 45289794 44979651 43109594 

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