[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141505
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141505 
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-141700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NY...SRN VT...WRN MA...SWRN NH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141505Z - 141700Z

SMALL FORWARD PROPAGATING TSTM LINE MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
APCHG 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA...CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE...AS
IT MOVES OVER GFL AREA AND NEARBY PORTIONS HUDSON VALLEY...SERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS.  ACTIVITY
MAY BACKBUILD INTO WRN MA AND MOVE AS FAR E AS SWRN NH.  WW NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS ACTIVITY ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THERMODYNAMICALLY MODIFIED ALY RAOB SUGGEST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND...AS
INFLOW LAYER HEATS AND MIXES AND SFC-BASED INSTABILITY INCREASES. 
TEMPS RISING INTO LOW-MID 80S F WITH CURRENTLY OBSERVED SFC DEW
POINTS WILL YIELD MLCAPES AND SBCAPES IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE BY
APPROXIMATELY 17Z...ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERTED-V PROFILE.  MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL AMBIENT FLOW OR
SHEAR...AS EVIDENT IN 10-15 KT LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS IN 12Z ALY RAOB
AND LATEST VWP.  IN SUCH WEAK AMBIENT FLOW ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE GUST
FRONT SURGE WELL AHEAD OF PARENT CORES...AND MUST MAINTAIN STRONG
FORWARD PROPAGATIONAL TENDENCY TO SUSTAIN FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW.  PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE WITH EMBEDDED
SMALL BOWS ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL-SCALE DOWNDRAFT SURGES.

..EDWARDS.. 07/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...

43467506 43577460 43707435 43837407 43837385 43667330
43467287 43227253 42957251 42777258 42657282 42767347
42937394 43347494