[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070740 
TXZ000-NMZ000-070845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX INCLUDING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616...

VALID 070740Z - 070845Z

DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS WW 616.  IF CURRENT TRENDS OF
STORM INTENSITY/NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COLD POOL GENERATION
CONTINUE...THEN A NEW WW WOULD BE REQUIRED ESE OF WW 616.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THREE MINI-BOW STRUCTURES /1.) EAST OF
CDS...2.) EXTENDING FROM HALL TO NRN CROSBY COUNTIES...AND 3.)
EXTENDING FROM SWISHER TO BAILEY COUNTIES/ TRACKING TO THE SE. THE
BOW ECHO EXTENDING FROM HALL TO NRN CROSBY COUNTIES WAS THE
STRONGEST GIVEN ITS SEWD MOVEMENT AT 35-40 KT. THUS...DAMAGING
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOST LIKELY WITH COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
BOW...REACHING COTTLE TO STONEWALL COUNTIES BY 09Z.

SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THESE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH INFLOW OF
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/SERN
TX COMBINED WITH 35 KT OF NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER WRN TX IS
RESULTING IN STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR FOR CONTINUED STORM
ORGANIZATION.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
EXTENDED ALONG A LINE FROM FOARD COUNTY TO 25 S LBB AND THEN WWD
INTO SERN NM.  25-30 KT OF SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER WRN TX WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEW STRONG AND/OR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THESE ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE COLD POOL WITH THIS MCS.

..PETERS.. 07/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

34800321 34780017 34410001 34069964 33189950 32439977
32020015 32030306 

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