[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060847 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-060945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1668
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS/SRN AND CENTRAL AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 608...

VALID 060847Z - 060945Z

THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM RELATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEWD THIS MORNING ACROSS SERN MS INTO SWRN-SRN AND CENTRAL AL...AND
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.

AT 08Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THE CENTER OF T.S. "CINDY" LOCATED
OVER FAR SERN LA /40 NNW BVE/. NHC FORECAST TRACK TAKES CINDY NEWD
ACROSS FAR SERN MS INTO SWRN AL TODAY...WITH THE FAVORABLE E AND NE
QUADRANT CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS SERN MS AND SWRN AL AND INTO
SRN/CENTRAL AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.  STRONGEST BAND OF
CONVECTION WAS ORIENTED GENERALLY N-S FROM FAR SERN MS/FAR SWRN AL
SWD TO THE NRN GULF /APPROX. 125 SE BVE/.  RADAR DATA HAS INDICATED
OCCASIONAL LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH A FEW STORMS IN THIS CONVECTIVE
BAND...WHILE LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED AN INCREASE IN STRIKES.

DRY INTRUSION EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA JUST WEST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND WOULD SUGGEST THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE WITH AND E/NE OF THIS BAND OF STORMS.  AREA WSR-88D
VADS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 300
M2/S2...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT/.  THESE SHEAR VALUES WITHIN A
VERY MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THIS THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AS SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AIDS IN DESTABILIZING THE
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS.

..PETERS.. 07/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

29998956 30878955 31618942 32378860 32688730 32508523
31048517 29658549 29538651 29458811 30038860