[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040020 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-040215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 040020Z - 040215Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF NRN OK AND SERN KS LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
WILL BE LIKELY OVER THESE AREAS.

LONG-LIVED AND VERY INTENSE HP SUPERCELL WITH DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND
EXTREME WINDS WAS CONTINUING NEAR ICT THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXTENDED WWD ACROSS SWRN KS
WHERE ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ATOP THE COLD POOL EAST OF
DDC. MEANWHILE...A MID/UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS SPREADING ESEWD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND WAS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN/SERN CO. ONE OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS
OVER SERN CO REGION WAS A SUPERCELL NOW APPEARING TO ACCELERATE
SSEWD ACROSS BACA COUNTY IN SERN CO AND STANTON COUNTY IN FAR SWRN
KS. THIS CELL MAY BE THE START OF A LARGER SCALE SEVERE MCS TO
AFFECT PARTS OF NWRN OK AND THE NERN TX PNHDL IN A FEW HOURS.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR WAVE SPREADING OUT OF CO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS SWRN/SRN KS NEXT FEW HOURS. MASS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING MCS NEAR ICT WILL ALSO TEND TO MOVE TOWARD SERN KS/SWRN
MO WITH TIME. GIVEN LARGE RESERVOIR OF EXTREME INSTABILITY SITUATED
ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND SRN KS....IN CONJUNCTION WITH WNWLY MEAN
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AND ADDITIONAL  WATCHES ARE MOST LIKELY
FORTHCOMING.

..CARBIN.. 07/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

36569469 36589290 36639220 38919331 39049426 38099444
38039636 36979663 36900226 35370130 35299455 

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