[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 022354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022354 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-030130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA AND SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579...

VALID 022354Z - 030130Z

CONTINUE WW 579. GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATCH AREA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS
NOT EXPECTED AS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LESSENS. 

AT 2344Z...SLOW MOVING BOW ECHO EXTENDING FROM 40S JAN TO 25 NW MSY
TO THE S-CENTRAL LA COAST IS SHOWING SIGNS OF GRADUAL WEAKENING AND
DECREASING ORGANIZATION PER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TRACK ESEWD AT 20KT. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE WITH
MARINE INFLUENCE RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
ALONG THE MS/SERN LA COAST...AND 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD FURTHER REDUCE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS MCS. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN LA AND SRN MS...BUT CURRENT
TRENDS SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL WATCH WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

..BANACOS.. 07/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

29999128 31989023 31588849 29478827 29568975 

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