[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020220 
NDZ000-SDZ000-020415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0920 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 575...

VALID 020220Z - 020415Z

THREAT FOR SVR WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ERN PORTIONS OF WW 575
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD
OUT OF WW 575 INTO CENTRAL ND...SO A NEW WW EAST OF WW 575 IS NOT
EXPECTED ATTM.

INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS OVER WRN ND PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. AIRMASS
DOWNSTREAM OVER CENTRAL ND SAMPLED BY 00Z BIS SOUNDING WAS
INCREASINGLY STABLE WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. THUS CONVECTION AND
SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OVER WRN ND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. ALTHOUGH SVR THREAT OVER FAR WRN ND IS LIMITED ATTM...
ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER ERN MT TO THE SOUTH OF GGW WAS MOVING EWD
AROUND 35 KTS AND SHOULD IT SURVIVE WOULD MOVE INTO WCENTRAL ND
AROUND 05Z.

..CROSBIE.. 07/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

48990091 45910120 45880393 47980385 49000220 

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