[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010948 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-011045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO/NRN AND CENTRAL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569...

VALID 010948Z - 011045Z

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SERN KS/NERN OK AND ACROSS PARTS OF NRN INTO CENTRAL AR.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A SERIES OF LINE SEGMENTS MOVING SEWD ACROSS
SERN KS TO NRN AR.  MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWED A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WITH ONE EXTENDING FROM NRN MS WWD INTO CENTRAL AR NEAR
LIT...AND A SECOND ONE EXTENDING WWD FROM CENTRAL AR TO THE S OF FSM
AND INTO CENTRAL OK /CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY/.

...NRN AND CENTRAL AR...
LEADING LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM LAWRENCE TO FAULKNER COUNTIES
AR IS MOVING SEWD AT 35 KT...BUT LIT RADAR SHOWED THE GUST FRONT
LOCATED 5-10 MILES AHEAD OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION.  LATEST RUC
SOUNDINGS ACROSS AR SUGGESTED THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ABOVE A
SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER.  FOR THIS REASON...AND BECAUSE THE GUST
FRONT IS OUT-RUNNING THE STRONGER STORMS...A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST
INSTABILITY EXTENDED FROM NWRN TO CENTRAL AR AND THEN INTO NRN MS. 
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN/SERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MCS OVER THIS REGION...BUT WITH A MORE ISOLATED
THREAT...ESPECIALLY FROM SERN PART OF WW 569 INTO EAST CENTRAL AR.

...SERN KS AND NERN OK...
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STORMS CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS
SERN KS...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM LOCATED IN NERN PORTION OF WW 570
OVER SUMNER COUNTY KS. THESE STORMS IN SERN KS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR.

..PETERS.. 07/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

36209669 37529669 37389493 37039467 36619439 36229259
36159138 35139100 34579130 35009265 35669455 

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