[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010052 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-010215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 563...

VALID 010052Z - 010215Z

...MAIN THREAT WITH WW 563 WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME ERN KS/WRN MO...

LONG LIVED SUPERCELL TSTM NOW ENTERING NEOSHO/ALLEN COUNTIES IN
EXTREME ERN KS /NEAR CHANUTE/ WILL LIKELY TRACK ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS SCNTRL PORTIONS OF MO. THIS STORM HAS
HAD A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE. LATEST RADAR
REFLECTIVITY FROM LOCAL RADARS SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL ROTATION PERSISTS
WITH THIS STORM...AND SO LARGEST SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN MO.

STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A SMALL MCS ACROSS SCNTRL MO...AND FOR
THE MOST PART ARE MOVING OUT OF THE WATCH. 00Z SOUNDING FROM
SPRINGFIELD SHOWS FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH...COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WILL
SUPPORT STORM LONGEVITY THROUGH THE EVENING. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DOWNSTREAM
MOVEMENT. MEANWHILE THE EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS.

..TAYLOR.. 07/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

36539228 37089567 38379564 37869230 

WWWW