From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 00:42:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 19:42:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507010053.j610reUw021362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010052 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-010215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 563... VALID 010052Z - 010215Z ...MAIN THREAT WITH WW 563 WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME ERN KS/WRN MO... LONG LIVED SUPERCELL TSTM NOW ENTERING NEOSHO/ALLEN COUNTIES IN EXTREME ERN KS /NEAR CHANUTE/ WILL LIKELY TRACK ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS SCNTRL PORTIONS OF MO. THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE. LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM LOCAL RADARS SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL ROTATION PERSISTS WITH THIS STORM...AND SO LARGEST SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN MO. STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A SMALL MCS ACROSS SCNTRL MO...AND FOR THE MOST PART ARE MOVING OUT OF THE WATCH. 00Z SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD SHOWS FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH...COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WILL SUPPORT STORM LONGEVITY THROUGH THE EVENING. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT. MEANWHILE THE EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 36539228 37089567 38379564 37869230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 02:59:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 21:59:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507010311.j613B3OD013020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010309 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-010445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1564 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SWRN OK / SERN IN / NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567... VALID 010309Z - 010445Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WW...THOUGH CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. BOWING LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN AND INTO CENTRAL OH ATTM. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL OH...LIKELY DUE TO MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OH IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT NOW EXISTS ACROSS FAR SERN IN / SWRN OH / NRN KY...WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN QUARTER OF WW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THIS WW PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 01/07Z EXPIRATION. ..GOSS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND... 40598278 40478242 39238278 38558300 38618493 38758541 39288542 39708478 39828423 39738340 40158298 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 03:34:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 22:34:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507010345.j613jWqI027425@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010342 TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-010515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS/SW MO/NRN AR/FAR NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568... VALID 010342Z - 010515Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568 CONTINUES UNTIL 09Z. PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINS LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CURRENTLY ONGOING IMMEDIATELY N/NE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM SE KS INTO NRN AR...WITH MOST ROBUST TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ALONG A EMPORIA KS-CHANUTE KS-JOPLIN MO CORRIDOR INTO THE HARRISON AR-FAYETTEVILLE AR VICINITIES THROUGH 06Z. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN COMMON GIVEN STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR NORTH OF BOUNDARY AND PRIMARILY ELEVATED INSTABILITY -- MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL...FAVORING THE AFOREMENTIONED CNU-JLN-FYV-HRO CORRIDOR GIVEN PROPAGATION OF MESOSCALE COLD POOLS AMIDST RELATIVELY SHALLOWER SURFACE STABLE LAYER. ..GUYER.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 38509702 38649639 38349422 37689326 37329274 36599131 36848957 35668996 35349124 35759421 36659494 37169617 37599699 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 04:22:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 23:22:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507010433.j614XKUb015004@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010432 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010432 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-010630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO/SW KS INTO THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010432Z - 010630Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL LIKELY TO DEVELOP/SHIFT SEWD OVERNIGHT INTO SW KS AND THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES. NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SUPERCELL OVER SRN PROWERS/NRN BACA COUNTIES CO AT 0430Z -- WITH HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL/ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS -- EXPECTED TO CONTINUING TRANSITIOING SEWD INTO FAR SW KS/OK PANHANDLE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS WELL. STRONG POST-FRONTAL EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50 KTS OR GREATER WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. COMBINED WITH STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG -- PER 03Z RUC SOUNDINGS -- AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF APPROX 8.0 C/KM WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT OVERNIGHT. ..GUYER.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB... 38410265 37910149 37130035 36340028 35990187 36640271 37620335 38040322 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 06:02:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 01:02:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507010613.j616DKTM020108@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010612 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-010645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1567 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN-SERN KS/SRN MO/NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568... VALID 010612Z - 010645Z NEW WW/S BEING CONSIDERED FOR NRN OK AND NRN AR. THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW 568 ACROSS SERN KS INTO SWRN MO. 05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN OK WSWWD ACROSS NRN OK TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW IN WRN TN...STRETCHED WNWWD FROM NEAR MEM TO SOUTH OF FYV IN NWRN AR TO NERN OK. 20 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM WRN TX TO NERN OK IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MCS LOCATED OVER SERN KS/SWRN MO...WITH NEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY ALONG THE SRN/ERN PERIPHERIES OF THIS COMPLEX. STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOIST/ MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW PER LLJ WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FARTHER WNW...ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN INTO NRN OK AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AS AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN KS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SIMILAR KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO AREAS FARTHER EAST SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OK. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 38349665 38259463 37959287 37039144 36139084 35409150 35389382 35509623 35829857 36009980 36340036 37230014 37669767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 08:14:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 03:14:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507010825.j618PcuP004875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010824 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-011000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE/NRN AND WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570... VALID 010824Z - 011000Z DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AS BOW ECHO MOVES SEWD INTO NWRN/WRN OK AND PARTS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 0930Z. AT 08Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM SERN CLARK COUNTY TX SWWD TO LIPSCOMB COUNTY TX...WITH THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS LINE FROM HARPER COUNTY OK TO LIPSCOMB COUNTY TX BOWING AND TRACKING TO THE SE AT 40 KT. MEASURED WIND GUSTS PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE CLOSE TO 70 MPH IN BEAVER COUNTY OK WITH THIS BOW STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST HOUR. DOWNSTREAM MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST THIS BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NWRN AND WRN OK THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z AND REACHING CUSTER TO ALFALFA COUNTIES BY THAT TIME. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 35140032 35870108 36340098 37189983 37319758 37399667 35629671 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 09:41:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 04:41:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507010952.j619qaxw009368@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010948 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-011045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0448 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO/NRN AND CENTRAL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569... VALID 010948Z - 011045Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SERN KS/NERN OK AND ACROSS PARTS OF NRN INTO CENTRAL AR. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A SERIES OF LINE SEGMENTS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN KS TO NRN AR. MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWED A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH ONE EXTENDING FROM NRN MS WWD INTO CENTRAL AR NEAR LIT...AND A SECOND ONE EXTENDING WWD FROM CENTRAL AR TO THE S OF FSM AND INTO CENTRAL OK /CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY/. ...NRN AND CENTRAL AR... LEADING LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM LAWRENCE TO FAULKNER COUNTIES AR IS MOVING SEWD AT 35 KT...BUT LIT RADAR SHOWED THE GUST FRONT LOCATED 5-10 MILES AHEAD OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS AR SUGGESTED THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ABOVE A SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR THIS REASON...AND BECAUSE THE GUST FRONT IS OUT-RUNNING THE STRONGER STORMS...A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED. STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXTENDED FROM NWRN TO CENTRAL AR AND THEN INTO NRN MS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS OVER THIS REGION...BUT WITH A MORE ISOLATED THREAT...ESPECIALLY FROM SERN PART OF WW 569 INTO EAST CENTRAL AR. ...SERN KS AND NERN OK... REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STORMS CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS SERN KS...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM LOCATED IN NERN PORTION OF WW 570 OVER SUMNER COUNTY KS. THESE STORMS IN SERN KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... 36209669 37529669 37389493 37039467 36619439 36229259 36159138 35139100 34579130 35009265 35669455 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 09:52:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 04:52:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507011003.j61A3rPA013821@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011002 OKZ000-011030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011002Z - 011030Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL OK. GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN OK WAS LOCATED FROM KINGFISHER TO KIOWA COUNTY AND MOVING TO THE SE AT 50 KT. GIVEN UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS...THIS GUST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AT THIS SPEED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WELL EWD OF ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34759868 35529818 35919794 36049635 35599535 34709558 34239606 34559826 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 12:21:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 07:21:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507011232.j61CWG9B012538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011231 OKZ000-011330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO ERN AND SERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571... VALID 011231Z - 011330Z DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LINE OF STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO ERN/SERN OK THIS MORNING. AT 1225Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A LINE OF STORMS ORIENTED IN A BOW STRUCTURE...EXTENDING FROM CREEK TO SEMINOLE COUNTIES AND THEN SWWD TO GARVIN COUNTY. THE STRONGEST STORM ALONG THIS LINE WAS LOCATED AT THE APEX OVER POTTAWATOMIE INTO PONTOTOC COUNTIES WITH A SEWD MOVEMENT AT JUST OVER 35 KT. OKC VWP DATA SHOWED A 40 KT REAR INFLOW JET WITH THE APEX OF THE LINE...WHEN THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVED ACROSS NRN CLEVELAND COUNTY. MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWED A WNW-ESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY SEWD TO S OF MLC AND INTO WEST CENTRAL/SWRN AR...AND MOVING SWD. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN/SERN OK...EAST OF THE BOW SEGMENT...REMAINED MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDING ALONG/S OF THE WNW-ESE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS BOW ECHO IS LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED ACROSS SERN OK...PER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ON VIS IMAGERY...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASED WIND THREAT BY MID MORNING. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34599759 35249711 36209696 35649450 33869451 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 14:45:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 09:45:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507011456.j61EupST030816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011455 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011455 TXZ000-OKZ000-011600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0955 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571... VALID 011455Z - 011600Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 571 MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS...MAINLY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF WEAK WAVE ALONG CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS HEATING IN BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF OUTFLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...PROSPECTS FOR CONTINUING DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEYOND THE MID DAY HOURS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FLOW/SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE WEAK...BUT RISK OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS APPROACHING AREAS NEAR/NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. ..KERR.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34189611 34669558 33709453 33229420 32989522 32939621 32639754 33599741 33999676 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 15:39:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 10:39:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507011550.j61FotoG032724@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011549 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-011745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...CENTRAL/NRN AL...FAR NWRN GA...AND CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011549Z - 011745Z A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM MIDDLE/ERN TN SWWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL AL AND INTO ERN MS. AN ISOLATED OR LOCALIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED WITH STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THIS REGION. AT 1545Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CELLS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY DECAYING MCS OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN...NRN AL...AND ERN MS...WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM INITIATION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY INSTABILITY...AS SFC-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS. ADDITIONALLY...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LAYER EVIDENT ON JAN AND BMX SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z MAY LIMIT SRN EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE IN PLACE AT BNA /850-500MB LAPSE RATE OF 7C/KM/...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND GREATER SEVERE THREAT ALONG NRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN...NRN AL...AND FAR NWRN GA. SCATTERED PULSE TYPE STORMS...OR SMALL MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...APPEAR PROBABLE WITH BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES THROUGH AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 33578961 33968896 34668781 35588695 36008673 36598608 36578498 36558379 35888413 34988481 34218545 33508601 33158651 32878674 32778745 32708934 32759031 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 17:00:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 12:00:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507011711.j61HBL5P020749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011710 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011710 TXZ000-011915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011710Z - 011915Z ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WW IS NOT PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS OF STORMS. RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED AND STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 45W ABI TO 10SE MWL TO 50E DAL WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SWD AT AROUND 20KT THROUGH REMAINDER OF N-CENTRAL AND NERN TX DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT INTERACTS WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /100MB MLCAPE VALUES 2500-3500 J/KG/. THE RELATIVE DRY LAYER APPARENT IN 12Z FTW SOUNDING FROM 750-600MB IS LIKELY ENHANCING EVAPORATION IN DOWNDRAFTS WITH DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. WEAK LOW-LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE MODEST INFLOW AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY... HOWEVER...SFC-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KT. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOCALIZED...AND ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER CORES AS THEY PROGRESS GENERALLY SSEWD WITH MOTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...SJT... 32349905 32709805 32919695 33009618 33059550 33059476 32669430 32289412 31829422 31379471 31239613 31199746 31259839 31559913 32089931 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 17:21:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 12:21:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507011732.j61HWFhj032208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011730 VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-011830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1575 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CHAMPLAIN VLY THRU ERN NY/NE PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011730Z - 011830Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/EAST OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...EAST OF A SARANAC LAKE/BINGHAMTON LINE INTO THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND VALUES MAY APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS STILL EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ONTARIO INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT BELT OF MODERATE /30-40 KT/ CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK. AS THIS REGIME DEVELOPS EASTWARD NEXT FEW HOURS...STRENGTHENING SHEAR IN DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINE EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH BY 20-21Z. ..KERR.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 44957274 44037326 43077381 42217441 41487482 41467624 42107653 42867599 44857512 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 18:07:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 13:07:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507011818.j61IINCD027049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011817 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-012015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW SD...WRN NEB...NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011817Z - 012015Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY TOPPING CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...AND AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION IS BECOMING FOCUSED NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WHERE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG...WITH FURTHER INCREASE LIKELY THROUGH PEAK HEATING. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR NOW THROUGH 21Z NEAR/EAST OF SCOTTSBLUFF...WITH A GRADUAL SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION THEREAFTER. VEERING WIND FIELDS FROM LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO MODERATE WESTERLY WITH HEIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY IN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..KERR.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 43920344 43960247 43040159 41220071 40460096 39460302 39400405 41260384 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 19:36:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 14:36:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507011947.j61JlFvi016842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011944 TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-012145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...AND THE WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011944Z - 012145Z AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OFF THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE REGION FROM SERN CO SWD THROUGH NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLES OF TX/OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AT 1915Z INDICATES ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR TAD SSWWD TO NEAR LVS. THIS REGION LIES ON SRN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE 500MB FLOW BETWEEN THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER SRN NM/AZ AND THE BAROCLINIC WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW OVER SWRN TX AND SFC LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN MT TO ERN CO SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY /100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM INTO FAR WRN TX...AND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS CONTRIBUTING TO WNWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT. THIS SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AS UPDRAFTS MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THESE FACTORS IN ADDITION TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8C/KM/ SHOULD SUPPORT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 33910364 34090500 35450529 36000531 37640444 37610233 35710213 33840212 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 19:54:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 14:54:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507012005.j61K5K9n027958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012004 VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-012200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...VT...SWD THRU ERN PA/NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572... VALID 012004Z - 012200Z CONTINUE WW 572...NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO THE EAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST COUPLE OF HOURS EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON VALLEYS...SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE. SEA BREEZE ALSO APPEARS TO BE FOCUS FOR NEW STORMS WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF NEW YORK CITY. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST/INCREASE IN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS MOSTLY LIKELY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AREA...ON TAIL END OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE/FILL IN THROUGH THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME...POSING BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT/WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT...THEREAFTER. ..KERR.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... 44027447 45047444 45277281 44167225 42997264 41797394 41827466 43087451 43737451 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 21:49:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 16:49:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507012200.j61M0ofD024375@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012159 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-012330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...ERN PA...NJ...AND WRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572... VALID 012159Z - 012330Z ...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S... WW 572 CONTINUES ACROSS ERN/NERN NY INTO WRN/NWRN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER ERN NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH QUEBEC AND SRN PERIPHERY OF ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE FORCING. MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG EXTEND EWD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE ERN EXTENT OF SVR WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT PER ALB AND BTV VAD WIND PROFILES SUGGEST CONTINUED THREAT OF LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE CELLS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND WRN MA/CT WHERE POCKETS OF UNMODIFIED...MODERATE INSTABILITY AIR REMAIN. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THEREAFTER...REMAINING INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME LIMITED AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL WANE. SEPARATE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NJ SWWD INTO THE PHI METRO AREA WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 20-25KT. AREAS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ REMAIN ACROSS S-CENTRAL NJ AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THREAT OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER IN THIS REGION...AROUND 20KT PER DIX VAD WIND PROFILE. ORIENTATION OF CONVECTION SUGGESTS HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF BURLINGTON...OCEAN...AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING CELLS. FURTHER WEST...SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS W-CENTRAL PA JUST IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY EWD. AN ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL IS POSSIBLE... HOWEVER...DECREASING INSOLATION AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ADDITIONAL WW/S ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION GIVEN EXPECTED EVOLUTION. ..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 43757525 44507487 44927450 45007336 44957148 44417174 43157198 42597217 41187319 40527365 39917396 39597422 39457491 39547528 39727565 40237605 40957619 41757608 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 22:39:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 17:39:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507012250.j61MomIk013971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012250 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012250 MTZ000-WYZ000-020015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MT / NRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012250Z - 020015Z STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED / ISOLATED...WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REMAINS FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT ACROSS MT AND VICINITY...THOUGH LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /GENERALLY 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. ABOVE THE SURFACE...FLOW REMAINS VEERED / WLY AND THUS DOWNSLOPE. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD / SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT. HAVING SAID THAT...WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING WHICH HAS EXISTED ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD...AS VORT MAX NOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND CONTINUES EWD TOWARD MT. THIS COMBINED WITH MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS ERN MT MAY ALLOW CONVECTION NOW MOVING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. WITH 35 TO 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS EXISTS. THOUGH NEGATIVE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 46491185 47331102 47500963 47310635 46950425 45010478 43840642 44821089 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 22:52:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 17:52:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507012303.j61N3j3J019777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012302 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-020030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MT / WRN ND / NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012302Z - 020030Z THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE SLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS ATTM...WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHIFTING ACROSS ERN MT WHICH SHOULD MERGE WITH LEE TROUGH SHORTLY. AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO INCREASE WITH TIME. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ATTM...WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THUS...AS WIND FIELD INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS DEVELOPS...EXPECT THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO -- TO LIKEWISE INCREASE. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..GOSS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 49030489 49110275 48990199 47820115 45240103 44820316 45070424 45710449 47200464 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 23:14:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 18:14:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507012325.j61NPb4h028215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012324 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-020130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL NC...CENTRAL SC...AND ERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 012324Z - 020130Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR NC AND SC SWWD INTO ERN GA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WHICH INITIALLY FORMED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ERN GA. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT...AND STRONG HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS HAVE RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 3500 J/KG IN REMAINING UNMODIFIED AIR MASS IN SC/GA. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN APPALACHIANS LEE TROUGH AND MODERATE WLY SHEAR IS RESULTING IN WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ALONG CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY DURING NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH WET MICROBURSTS. LARGE STORM CLUSTER NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER MOVING EWD AT 5-10KT WILL YIELD A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BANDS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTEND NNEWD INTO CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...ALONG WITH NRN EXTENT OF MOIST AXIS WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2". WSR-88D DERIVED HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES OF AROUND 3"/HR ARE EVIDENT FROM CAE AND RDU. ..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 33738335 34228239 34878094 35588019 35397814 34687853 33917908 33248010 32838094 32588149 32588223 32598281 32668318 33028350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 23:19:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 18:19:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507012330.j61NUHvF030020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012329 KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-020100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1583 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO / WRN AND CENTRAL NEB / PARTS OF WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573... VALID 012329Z - 020100Z STORMS / SEVERE THREAT CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW...AND SHOULD SHIFT SEWD WITH TIME. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED...REPLACING WW 573 AND EXTENDING EWD INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF NEB / KS. MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHERE SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE INDICATED. WITH TIME...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL / WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF SEWD-MOVING CONVECTION. WITH 30 TO 40 KT WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS...SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS. WITH TIME...MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE...POSSIBLY LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB... 37820259 38300303 40450192 41410160 43110175 43400089 42849931 41669790 40849757 38479852 37989958 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 23:35:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 18:35:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507012346.j61NkkaZ003790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012345 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-020115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO / SWRN KS / TX AND OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012345Z - 020115Z STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE / SPREAD SEWD WITH TIME OUT OF SERN CO INTO SWRN KS AND THE TX / OK PANHANDLES. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS /1000 TO 2000 J/KG/ EXTENDS ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM..WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALONG WITH CONVECTION SHIFTING SEWD OUT OF SERN CO...NEW STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ATTM ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH TIME...MCS SHOULD EVOLVE / SHIFT SEWD TOWARD WRN OK. ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 30 KT WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. THOUGH HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS MCS DEVELOPS. ..GOSS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 38470384 38550146 38330020 36799992 34880008 34930288 36430319 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 23:42:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 18:42:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507012353.j61NrJac006859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012352 TXZ000-020115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1585 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS / WRN N TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012352Z - 020115Z STORMS ARE DEVELOPING E OF WW 574. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. LATEST RADAR / SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 50 ESE TCC /DEAF SMITH COUNTY TX/ TO NEAR ABI. AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION BENEATH 30 KT WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT THESE STORMS -- AND CONVECTION NOW MOVING SEWD OUT OF ERN NM INTO W TX -- TO CONGEAL INTO A LARGE MCS. WITH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR LONG-LIVED / SEVERE STORMS...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 34680228 34330002 33479881 31909811 31399904 32160221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 01:41:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 20:41:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507020152.j621qChH019207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020151 TXZ000-NMZ000-020315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1586 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0851 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM / PARTS OF THE TX S PLAINS INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION AND FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 574... VALID 020151Z - 020315Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN 2/3 OF WW. WHILE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING EWD OUT OF WW INTO WW 577 ATTM...STORMS PERSIST WITHIN NERN QUARTER OF WW. AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF WW REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS. THOUGH WRN FRINGE OF ONGOING STORMS LIKELY MARKS THE WRN EXTENT OF GREATEST SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS INTO ERN NM BEHIND ONGOING CONVECTION. ..GOSS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34820408 34790223 31740224 31690482 32140479 33250375 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 02:00:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 21:00:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507020211.j622B97j027197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020210 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-020315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1587 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB / NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573... VALID 020210Z - 020315Z SEVERE THREAT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF REMAINDER OF WW WITHIN THE HOUR. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PERSIST IN AND NEAR NERN PORTIONS OF WW ATTM...AS WELL AS OVER SERN PORTIONS OF WATCH IN NWRN KS. MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD SHIFT SE OF WW BY 02/03Z...THUS ENDING MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE WATCH. THEREFORE...WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..GOSS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... 42090114 42009959 40059972 39189957 38470138 38550305 39520117 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 02:10:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 21:10:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507020221.j622LPZN030282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020220 NDZ000-SDZ000-020415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1588 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0920 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 575... VALID 020220Z - 020415Z THREAT FOR SVR WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ERN PORTIONS OF WW 575 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD OUT OF WW 575 INTO CENTRAL ND...SO A NEW WW EAST OF WW 575 IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM. INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS OVER WRN ND PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER CENTRAL ND SAMPLED BY 00Z BIS SOUNDING WAS INCREASINGLY STABLE WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. THUS CONVECTION AND SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OVER WRN ND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH SVR THREAT OVER FAR WRN ND IS LIMITED ATTM... ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER ERN MT TO THE SOUTH OF GGW WAS MOVING EWD AROUND 35 KTS AND SHOULD IT SURVIVE WOULD MOVE INTO WCENTRAL ND AROUND 05Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 48990091 45910120 45880393 47980385 49000220 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 03:13:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 22:13:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507020324.j623OIVU021791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020323 TXZ000-020500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1589 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 577... VALID 020323Z - 020500Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS MUCH OF WW...THOUGH CONVECTION HAS IN GENERAL REMAINED LIMITED IN INTENSITY. CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF WW 574 / INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 577 REMAIN THE MOST VIGOROUS...THOUGH A FEW STORM SPLITS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN N CENTRAL / NERN PORTIONS OF WW WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. WITH FAVORABLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF WW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL WITH MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION PERSISTS. ..GOSS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34840201 33559910 30379912 31590206 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 03:20:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 22:20:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507020331.j623VP3j023937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020329 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-020500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO / SWRN KS / TX AND OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 576... VALID 020329Z - 020500Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW. STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING SSEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND FAR SWRN KS ATTM...ALONG AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY. WITH 25 TO 30 KT SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AT AROUND 25 KT...SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE / FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER OF STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE IF COLD POOL CAN BETTER ORGANIZE. ..GOSS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 38150382 38540240 38500140 35049983 34950233 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 06:22:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 01:22:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507020633.j626XF5L026086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020632 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-020700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1591 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX AND PARTS OF WRN AND SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 576... VALID 020632Z - 020700Z PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX AND PARTS OF WRN/SWRN OK BEING CONSIDERED FOR A NEW WW BY 07Z. 06Z SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED A CONFLUENCE ZONE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BETWEEN SPS AND ABI EXTENDING NWWD TO THE TX PANHANDLE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS NEAR/ WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONFLUENCE...WITH THE SRN MOST COMPLEX OVER THROCKMORTON TO CALLAHAN COUNTIES TX APPEARING TO BE UNDERGOING RE-ORGANIZATION INTO A POTENTIAL FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. 45 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW PER AREA VAD/WIND PROFILERS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION. COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WILL SUPPORT FORWARD MOTION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH A LEADING BOW ECHO NOW LOCATED OVER THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WAS MOVING TO THE SE AT 35-40 KT...AND PRODUCED A 45 KT WIND GUST AT GUY AT 0511Z. COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS MCS COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE INFLOW ENVIRONMENT PER 35 KT SELY LLJ AT AMA AND DEEP ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OK IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SEWD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. CONCERN EXISTS AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF TX PANHANDLE BOW AFTER ITS INTERACTION WITH ONGOING STORMS BETWEEN CDS-LTS. LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF MODERATE TO STRONG WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP PERSISTENT SSELY LLJ WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN TX WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 36970328 37000194 37970050 38039999 36789916 34719885 33529815 32849721 31789676 31059739 31820047 33310082 34180149 36040328 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 09:37:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 04:37:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507020948.j629mOG9009650@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020947 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020947 TXZ000-NMZ000-021115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1592 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN TX AND FAR ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020947Z - 021115Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY WITHIN THE LBB COUNTY WARNING AREA OF WEST TX...BUT THIS THREAT MAY EXTEND WWD INTO FAR ERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWD ACROSS WRN TX. AT 0930Z...THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM JUST E OF CDS SWWD TO JUST N OF LBB AND THEN NWWD TO THE NE OF CVS. DURING THE LAST HOUR...THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED 25 MILES TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH INDICATES THIS NEW ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED. THESE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LOCATED 50-100 MILES TO THE S AND SW FROM ERN NM TO SW TX ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. A 35-40 KT SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO WRN TX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME...AT WHICH TIME THIS LLJ SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH. UNTIL THEN...MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW AIR COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 33800326 34430336 34800306 34980211 34660122 34020073 33090058 32810075 32630212 32750297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 14:56:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 09:56:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507021507.j62F7hWS006631@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021506 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021506 LAZ000-TXZ000-021700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL TX INTO W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021506Z - 021700Z A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THIS AREA SHORTLY. BOWING SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING THRU HENDERSON COUNTY AT THIS TIME. MLCAPE S OF THIS ACTIVITY RANGES FROM 1500-3000 J/KG...AND THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING EWD ALONG THE GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRESSURE RISES OF 2.4 MB/2 HOURS BEHIND THE CLUSTER INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL COLD POOL WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SPEED/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY IS ALSO MOVING ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH WILL AID IN IT CONTINUED PROPAGATION EWD INTO W CENTRAL LA. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 31649576 32089573 32779513 32669396 32479275 32129201 31729207 31369221 31029279 31349443 31459546 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 17:50:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 12:50:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507021801.j62I16Bl014710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021758 LAZ000-TXZ000-021930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL TX AND WRN/CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578... VALID 021758Z - 021930Z CONTINUE WW. SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS W-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL LA. FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE ESEWD/25-30KT ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES OF ERN TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL LA THROUGH 02/20Z. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN ADVANCE OF MCS...WITH STRONG INSOLATION RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 90F. FURTHER...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS FAR E-CENTRAL TX TO CENTRAL LA...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUATION OF MCS. ENVIRONMENT IS NOT STRONGLY SHEARED IN THE VERTICAL...WITH SFC-6KM VALUES OF ONLY 15-20KT. THEREFORE...DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED WITH WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH STRONGER CELLS. HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS AND CONVECTIVE MODE SUGGEST LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ..BANACOS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX... 30699461 30989511 31479504 32099481 32379460 32559432 32549357 32499294 32259206 31939185 31309182 30809184 30459192 30279198 30229239 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 19:25:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 14:25:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507021936.j62JaSLj021582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021933 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021933 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-022100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CENTRAL TX...CENTRAL/ERN LA... AND SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578... VALID 021933Z - 022100Z CONTINUE WW. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR AREAS EAST WW 578...TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF ERN LA AND SRN MS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BOW ECHO ACROSS W-CENTRAL LA SWWD INTO FAR E-CENTRAL TX WILL CONTINUE ESEWD AT 25-30KT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM OF MCS...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. STRONG COLD POOL AND VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUSTAIN LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT ESEWD INTO ERN LA AND SRN MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF WW 578 AREA BY 2130Z...SUGGESTING THAT AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON. ..BANACOS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 30499474 31059404 31579336 32289304 32459275 32439200 32139001 31878941 31268948 30728967 30338996 30119036 30129131  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 19:45:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 14:45:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507021956.j62JuarO030222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021955 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021954 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-022230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SERN MT INTO SWRN ND AND NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021954Z - 022230Z MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR OR SO. ELEVATED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL MT THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ANALYSIS OF RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA SHOWING LCL'S AND LFC'S BETWEEN 6K AND 7K AGL. MLCAPE CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE WITH VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE JUST ABOVE 8C/KM AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 30-35 DEG F...THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS EXISTS WITH THESE STORMS. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW... 45260960 45760952 46180909 46770755 47040577 47120307 46240224 45330207 44800216 44340267 44780442 44950784 45000946 45260964 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 20:36:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 15:36:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507022047.j62KlDmh019722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022046 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-022315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN ND AND NERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022046Z - 022315Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY SHORTLY. AIR MASS CONTINUES RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE AREA AS MLCAPE VALUES ARE NW 3500 J/KG. BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 25 KT INTO S CENTRAL ND. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT WITH CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING ACROSS ERN ND AND LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATING THAT MLCAPE WILL BE 4500 J/KG BY 2100Z...WOULD ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY OVER S CENTRAL TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE 7.8 TO 8.5C/KM INDICATING TH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL EXISTS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ACTIVITY COULD THEN BECOME PART OF EARLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN AS 60 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK COMES ACROSS SRN MT ENHANCING UVVS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45979957 46249963 46729978 47230026 47710085 48280135 48920117 48949911 48769749 47939694 47239709 46429702 45529695 44919725 44829846 45299945 45739947 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 20:49:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 15:49:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507022100.j62L0aIc025240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022058 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-022300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1598 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...ERN CO...NWRN KS...AND FAR SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022058Z - 022300Z DRY MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BASED STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATED LOCALIZED/ISOLATED NATURE OF WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES IN CO/WY WILL TRACK GENERALLY ESEWD AT 20KT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN EXTREME SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT EXTREME EVAPORATION POTENTIAL IN DOWNDRAFTS AND LOCALIZED DRY MICROBURSTS ACROSS SERN WY/ERN CO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING EWD ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR FROM LIC TO GLD AND NEWD TOWARD MCK IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP-MIXING AND INCREASING CUMULUS CONVECTION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS FROM FAR ERN CO TO SWRN NEB MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A DRY MICROBURST OR TWO. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CAPPING FURTHER EAST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST ACTIVITY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..BANACOS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38810504 39740538 40500560 41530590 42020585 42380581 42530503 42300377 40650354 40180332 40000242 40030182 40340138 40360026 40030006 39200015 38910077 38290382 38380483 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 21:34:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 16:34:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507022145.j62LjZjY010170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022144 LAZ000-MSZ000-022315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN/SERN LA AND SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578...579... VALID 022144Z - 022315Z CONTINUE WW 578...WW 579. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS WW 578 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS BOW ECHO CONTINUES ESEWD INTO ERN/SERN LA AND SRN MS. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AT 2135Z...BOW ECHO EXTENDING FROM FRANKLIN PARISH LA TO WILKINSON COUNTY MS SWWD TO FAR SWRN LA CONTINUES TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATELY STRONG MESOSCALE COLD POOL. CURRENT LINE MOTION OF 280/30-35KT NEAR BOW APEX SHOULD MAINTAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS FAR SRN MS INTO SERN LA DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN MCS...WITH MINIMAL CINH AND 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. FORWARD SPEED OF SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE THREAT OF LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS WITH STRONGER CELLS ALONG FORWARD EDGE OF BOW ECHO. CONTINUED STABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL LA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...CONCLUDING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 578. ..BANACOS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30469305 31989236 32239211 32349178 31768934 29768941 29848984 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 22:20:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 17:20:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507022231.j62MV9gX027740@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022230 MNZ000-NDZ000-030030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022230Z - 030030Z CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER PARTS OF NRN/WRN AND CNTRL ND THIS EVENING. SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEST-EAST BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN ND HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS NWRN ND WHERE THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS SW-NE ORIENTED LEE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM CNTRL MT. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS CROSBY COUNTY IN EXTREME NWRN ND...AND A VERY INTENSE CELL WAS TRACKING ESEWD TOWARD THE BORDER FROM SERN SASKATCHEWAN...ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS INTO THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AXIS OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOCUSED ALONG THE WEST-EAST BOUNDARY MIGHT ENHANCE THE THREAT OF A TORNADO WITH ANY CELL TRACKING EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN ND AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE...SHEAR...AND FORCING ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS NERN ND AND NWRN MN MAY ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THIS REGION IF ACTIVITY BEGINS TO INCREASE/INTENSIFY. ..CARBIN.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48960394 48999677 47849659 46090089 45980372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 23:16:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 18:16:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507022327.j62NRHYF015377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022326 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-030100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT AND WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 580...581... VALID 022326Z - 030100Z INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS WAS MOVING ACROSS POWDER RIVER COUNTY WILL MOVE EAST INTO CARTER COUNTY IN SERN MT NEXT HOUR AND THEN INTO NWRN SD /SVR WATCH 581/ AFTER 02/00Z. SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND BOWING SEGMENT WAS RECENTLY MOVING AT NEAR 50KT. A FEW SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WERE NOTED WITHIN WATCH 581 ACROSS NWRN/NCNTRL SD. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS IT MOVES TOWARD GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE WATCH AREA. ..CARBIN.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW... 43029939 43030380 45070389 44830862 46370862 46590406 45880391 45839911 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 23:44:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 18:44:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507022355.j62NtYLl024465@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022354 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-030130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA AND SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579... VALID 022354Z - 030130Z CONTINUE WW 579. GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATCH AREA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT EXPECTED AS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LESSENS. AT 2344Z...SLOW MOVING BOW ECHO EXTENDING FROM 40S JAN TO 25 NW MSY TO THE S-CENTRAL LA COAST IS SHOWING SIGNS OF GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DECREASING ORGANIZATION PER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ESEWD AT 20KT. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE WITH MARINE INFLUENCE RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE MS/SERN LA COAST...AND 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD FURTHER REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS MCS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN LA AND SRN MS...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL WATCH WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. ..BANACOS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29999128 31989023 31588849 29478827 29568975 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 01:22:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 20:22:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507030133.j631XA09024041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030131 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-030200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1603 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0831 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...FAR SRN MS AND SWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579... VALID 030131Z - 030200Z WW 579 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISORGANIZE AS IT MOVES OUT OF WW 579 ACROSS SRN MS. A BRIEF WINDOW WILL EXIST BEYOND 02Z /OUTSIDE OF WW 579/ ACROSS SRN MS AND INTO FAR SWRN AL FOR AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT AS REMNANT CONVECTIVE LINE INTERACTS AND MERGES WITH CONVECTION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN AL. OVERALL LIMITED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A NEW WW ISSUANCE. ..CROSBIE.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31658847 31748938 30638956 30208945 30318739 31548744 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 01:35:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 20:35:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507030146.j631kfa2029296@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030145 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-030345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1604 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0845 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 582...583... VALID 030145Z - 030345Z ENVIRONMENT ACROSS BOTH WATCHES 582 AND 583 REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. A LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL WITH CONTINUING TORNADIC POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE TRACKING EAST ALONG A WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ALIGNED ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER OVER ROLLETE COUNTY IN NCNTRL ND. A NEARLY STATIONARY SUPERCELL WAS LIKELY PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER OVER KITTSON COUNTY IN NWRN MN IN WATCH 583. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING ALONG WIND SHIFT/TROUGH LINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE SFC LOW TO NEAR DIK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER CNTRL AND ERN ND WILL REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...UNR... 48980309 45920319 45979890 47409877 47379453 48979457 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 02:48:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 21:48:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507030259.j632xwGO023836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030259 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030258 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-030500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0958 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... VALID 030258Z - 030500Z LONG-TRACK AND WELL-FORMED BOW ECHO COMPLEX CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD NCNTRL SD AT OVER 50KT. OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE BOW APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED BASED ON RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS MAY ONLY BE A TEMPORARY TREND AS DOWNSTREAM THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE CONVECTION. WITH 50-60KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK DIRECTED INTO THE BACK OF THE BOWING COMPLEX...AND BOWHEAD MESOLOW TAKING SHAPE WITHIN STRATIFORM RAIN REGION ACROSS NWRN SD/SWRN ND...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT A LONG-LIVED AND SEVERE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A NEW WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX...ACROSS ERN PARTS OF SD/ND WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 42960398 45910407 45949892 46809875 46769669 45939667 44069643 44199874 42989956 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 04:04:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 23:04:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507030415.j634Fcs8019593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030413 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030413 LAZ000-TXZ000-030645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030413Z - 030645Z CLUSTER OF STG-ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO A MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE HOU METRO/FAR SERN TX IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ADDITIONAL ISO SVR THREAT WILL OCCUR OVER SWRN LA ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL A MARGINAL SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED AND THUS A WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM. PALESTINE PROFILER AND FT. POLK VWP SHOWS 25-35 KTS WNWLY FLOW IN THE 4-6 KM LAYER ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN MCV OVER NERN TX. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK...BUT SELY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM UTS TO NEAR BPT TO NORTH OF LCH WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT WEAK SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WITH STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OFFSET STORM ROTATION AND THUS ONLY MARGINAL HAIL IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A SMALL MCS WHILE MOVE SEWD TOWARDS IAH/BPT AND LCH AREAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW END SVR WIND THREAT AS WELL GIVEN PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER PER THE 00Z SHV AND LCH SOUNDINGS. ..CROSBIE.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 31419558 31459618 31229647 31039656 30559625 30279601 29619537 29529439 29589365 29749267 30189240 30849395 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 04:43:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 23:43:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507030454.j634sH5t000644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030453 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-030700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1607 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 582...583... VALID 030453Z - 030700Z NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL ND AND NWRN MN LATE TONIGHT. A LARGE MCS CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS AT OVER 50KT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 582. AN WEST-EAST BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MESO LOW AND SQUALL LINE ACROSS BURLEIGH AND KIDDER COUNTIES. MESO LOW SHOULD TRACK NEAR THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. IN WATCH 583 ACROSS ERN ND AND NWRN MN...LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THAT REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS KITTSON COUNTY FOR OVER 4H...HAS FINALLY BEEN DISPLACED BY SMALL SCALE BOWING STORM MOVING OUT OF ND. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD AT 45KT INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF WATCH 583 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45910205 47600216 48520297 49000311 48969449 47409455 47379873 45969893 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 06:03:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 01:03:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507030614.j636EFQt028029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030613 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030612 MNZ000-NDZ000-030645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND INTO PARTS OF NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 583... VALID 030612Z - 030645Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON TO REPLACE WW 583. REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM BOW ECHO OVER NRN MN TO GFK AND WWD TO 20 SE DVL. MEANWHILE...STRONG BOW ECHO CONTINUED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN ND AND ERN SD AT 40-45 KT. MESO LOW ON THE NORTH END OF THIS ND/SD BOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ALONG THE NWRN MN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS. LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF 50 KT LLJ WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/N OF NWRN MN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH INSTABILITY/EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND MESO LOW TRACKING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... 47359879 48999883 49009462 48569292 47389310 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 08:17:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 03:17:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507030828.j638SIom012353@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030827 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-030900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1609 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584... VALID 030827Z - 030900Z NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF SERN SD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MN...FAR NRN IA INTO WRN WI. WELL DEFINED AND ORGANIZED COLD POOL WILL SUPPORT EWD PROPAGATION OF THE MCS NOW MOVING INTO WRN MN. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATED AN EWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOW AT 40-45 KT ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND 07Z RUC SOUNDINGS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MN. 50 KT SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO SRN AND CENTRAL MN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE BOW...WHILE 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM SD INTO MN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED MCS ORGANIZATION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE THE STABLE LAYER...WIND GUSTS AOB SEVERE LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD P0OL AND LLJ. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SRN MOST STORM AS IT TRACKS SEWD ACROSS SWRN TO SRN MN. RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATED A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE NRN PART OF THE BOW OVER THE NRN PORTION OF WW 584...WHILE THE SRN PART OF THE BOW REMAINED STRONGER AS THE LLJ IMPINGES UPON THIS REGION OF SRN MN. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE SCENARIO OF PERSISTENT AND STRONGER STORMS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SRN MN TOWARD WEST CENTRAL WI. THUS...NEW WW MAY BE ORIENTED FROM SERN SD TO WEST CENTRAL WI...WHERE STRONGER WAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 43889781 45049580 46079557 47379560 47319143 45829227 45579093 43599049 43349285 43259481 43129636 43199789 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 09:22:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 04:22:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507030933.j639XOOe007701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030932 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030932 OKZ000-KSZ000-031130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1610 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0432 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030932Z - 031130Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SWD TOWARD NRN OK BEYOND 12Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUING TO TRACK SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS NOW LOCATED OVER PAWNEE AND STAFFORD COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EARLY THIS MORNING JUST NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS TSTM COMPLEX. A 40 KT SSWLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT WAA FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THIS MCS AND SSEWD PROPAGATION TOWARD NRN OK. COLD POOL FORMATION WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL MEETING AND/OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS. LLJ IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MID MORNING RESULTING IN SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS MCS. ..PETERS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38289973 37939919 38279831 37599764 36639724 36249793 36169873 36509943 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 10:24:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 05:24:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031035.j63AZLO8032303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031034 MNZ000-031100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1611 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 585... VALID 031034Z - 031100Z WW 585 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM ERN ROSEAU COUNTY SEWD TO SRN KOOCHICHING COUNTY WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD OF WW 585 BY OR JUST AFTER 11Z. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THIS WW THUNDERSTORM INTENSITIES HAVE DECREASED AS STRONGER LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED SWD ACROSS SRN MN. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...WW 585 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z. ..PETERS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 47409501 49009618 49299483 48469160 48009003 47888984 47229141 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 11:29:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 06:29:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031140.j63BeQu5026239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031139 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-031245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1612 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN MN AND FAR WEST CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586... VALID 031139Z - 031245Z CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF WW 586. NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NRN IA. SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN MN AND FAR NRN IA WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION INTO ONE OF ELEVATED STORMS ALONG/JUST N OF SRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM FAR EAST CENTRAL MN SWWD TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NWRN IA. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE VERIFIED BY STRONGEST STORMS NOW LOCATED OVER SRN MN AND NRN IA...WITH NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN-NRN IA AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES SWD. AREA VAD/WIND PROFILER DATA INDICATED A 50 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO NRN IA/SRN MN...WITH ASCENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS JET EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING. 09Z RUC SUGGESTS THIS LLJ WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A NEW WW SOUTH OF WW 586. ..PETERS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42609612 43769499 44469501 45059581 45749448 46409333 46389232 45839200 43989183 43099199 42739354 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 12:29:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 07:29:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031240.j63Ced1b019020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031239 KSZ000-NEZ000-031345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN NEB AND PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031239Z - 031345Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PARTS OF FAR SRN NEB AND NRN/CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB...WHERE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN NEB TO SWRN NEB INTERSECTED A LEE TROUGH OVER FAR ERN CO...AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL/ ERN KS. WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A 35 KT SLY LLJ IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS TO SWRN NEB...WITH 35 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AIDING IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH THIS MORNING...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WAA REGIME EWD ACROSS FAR SRN NEB AND PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL KS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP. MODERATE MUCAPE VALUES PER DDC 12Z SOUNDING WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATED A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 38180020 38700092 40070161 40279990 40229805 38509743 38119881 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 12:59:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 07:59:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031310.j63DA10P031525@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031309 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-031415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN/NRN AND NERN IA INTO SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586... VALID 031309Z - 031415Z NEW WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED ATTM ACROSS SERN MN INTO NRN IA. HOWEVER...THIS AREA EWD INTO SWRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ADDITIONAL WW IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT. 45-50 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL/NRN IA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE WAA REGIME ALONG NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN IA FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS SERN MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN IA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE FROM MID-LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ DECREASES IN STRENGTH. UNTIL THEN...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43159427 43689421 44249373 44189192 43979069 42799052 42569195 42669401 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 15:47:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 10:47:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031558.j63Fwr1A003509@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031558 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031557 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-031830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...CENTRAL/NRN AL...AND WRN/NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031557Z - 031830Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN AXIS FROM E-CENTRAL MS ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN AL INTO WRN/NWRN GA. THREAT EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGE FROM WET MICRO BURSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES. AT 1530Z...WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY WHICH EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS NWRN MS AND TO THE GULF COAST IN VICINITY OF DECAYING MCS OFF THE SRN LA COAST. THE 12Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATED MODEST COLD POOL ACROSS MS/AL WITH TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -9C. THIS THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT ENEWD WITH BAND OF 15-25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNWIND OF REMNANT MCS CIRCULATION AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH AXIS. WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS /LOW TO MID 70S/ ACROSS CENTRAL AL ENEWD INTO NWRN GA...VERTICAL THETA-E DIFFERENCES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THIS ZONE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MORNING BHM SOUNDING INDICATED MODEST DRY LAYERS ABOVE 700MB WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 3500 J/KG ARE ALSO LIKELY DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR STRONG STORM-SCALE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. WSWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 15-25KT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STEM FROM WET MICRO BURSTS WITH STRONGER CORES AND RESULTING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY AID CELL LONGEVITY AND WBZ HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. ..BANACOS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 33328884 34418780 34918634 34918487 34598409 33798357 33348356 32498491 32388597 32168820 32078889 32798906 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 17:01:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 12:01:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031712.j63HCffA000855@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031711 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-031815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587... VALID 031711Z - 031815Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND 18Z AND A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AS OF NOON OVER DECATUR...NORTON...SHERIDAN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN NWRN KS. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS AND VAD/VWP PLOTS SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY IS LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY ASCENT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG WRN EDGE OF SSWLY 30-40 KT LLJ AXIS. MODIFICATION OF 12Z DDC FOR CURRENT OBSERVATION AT RSL INDICATES THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY STILL ELEVATED...HOWEVER PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INFLUX OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ATOP OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING MAY ALLOW SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL SPREADING EWD INTO N-CNTRL KS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO ANTICIPATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SW OF GLD TO NEAR RSL...AND EVENTUALLY SWWD ALONG TROUGH AXIS FROM INTERSECTION WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SWRN KS. ..MEAD.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 40320229 40329925 38249897 38210193 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 17:52:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 12:52:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031803.j63I3eWs021380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031802 COZ000-031930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031802Z - 031930Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEVELOPING STORMS MOVE E AND ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE DEEPENING CUMULUS/SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL CO...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS WITHIN IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULTANT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. AS STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED...DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL. THE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP EWD/SEWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER FAR ERN CO INTO WRN KS. ..MEAD.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38490581 39630526 39810417 39370312 38120293 37380356 37160418 37160503 37530567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 18:16:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 13:16:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031827.j63IRVQj031244@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031825 IAZ000-MNZ000-032100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1618 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL MN AND CENTRAL/WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031825Z - 032100Z POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXISTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO NWRN IA DURING THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AT 18Z...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR STC SWWD TO SUX...WITH LINE OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BAND. DECAYING MCS OVER ERN IA HAS RESULTED IN LARGE RAIN COOLED AREA ACROSS SERN MN AND MUCH OF N-CENTRAL/NERN IA. AIR MASS RECOVERY HAS BEEN MOST RAPID ACROSS NWRN IA WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS NARROWING NEWD JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS S-CENTRAL MN. SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING FROM OAX SUGGESTS MODERATE CINH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. ADDITIONALLY...CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM NWRN KS STORM CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING TO SOME DEGREE. THUS...TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR COLD FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...THAT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP DURING PEAK HEATING PERIOD /20-22Z/ ACROSS NWRN IA/S-CENTRAL MN. STRONG SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG OVER NWRN IA SUGGESTS CONVECTION IN THIS AREA WOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.8 C/KM AT OAX...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH IN PLACE...IN AREAS OF BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHERE SRH WILL BE ENHANCED. ..BANACOS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42459619 43459571 44209530 44679486 44949445 45429374 44779348 44129340 43159324 42339335 41789349 41299397 41349490 41359547 41799600 42179622  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 18:25:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 13:25:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031836.j63IapF1001855@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031836 KSZ000-COZ000-032000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/SWRN INTO S-CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031836Z - 032000Z SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO THE S OF WW 588 BY 20-21Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. 18Z DDC SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON TO THE S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM SUPERCELL OVER RUSH COUNTY WWD THROUGH SCOTT COUNTY AND THEN MORE NWWD INTO E-CNTRL CO /SW OF GLD/. A CONSIDERABLE CAP STILL EXISTS...HOWEVER CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEVERAL OTHER OBSERVED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM CNTRL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS S OF WW 588. ..MEAD.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...PUB... 38050273 37919780 37009774 37020265 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 18:44:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 13:44:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031855.j63ItXGh009492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031854 SCZ000-GAZ000-032130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL SC WWD TO NERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 031854Z - 032130Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL /IN EXCESS OF 2IN/HR/ SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FROM E-CENTRAL SC WWD TO NERN GA. LOCALIZED NATURE OF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. COVERAGE OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH PEAK HEATING FROM NERN SC TO NERN GA. LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS FOCUSING CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NERN SC WSWWD THROUGH CAE TO FAR NERN GA. POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXIST AROUND ONGOING TSTMS WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CINH. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR GENERATION OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODERATE SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT EXISTS PER GSP AND CAE VAD WIND PROFILES. THIS SUGGESTS A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS OR MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS SUGGEST MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY. LASTLY...PW VALUES REMAIN AOA 2 IN. SMALL ANGLE BETWEEN E-W CONVERGENCE ZONE AND GENERAL ENEWD MOTION OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACTIVITY JUST SOUTH OF CAE AND ALSO WITH OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER WRN SC/FAR NERN GA. ..BANACOS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34798323 35078270 34828193 34338112 34168026 34077922 33847880 33467890 33067933 33037990 32978042 32938094 32998153 33258218 33598281 34508344 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 20:30:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 15:30:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507032041.j63Kfi8n018887@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032039 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-032215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OK PNHDL/NRN TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032039Z - 032215Z SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD INCREASING OVER THE WRN OK AND NWRN TX PNHDLS WITHIN HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED POST-DRYLINE AIR MASS. CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING E OF DRYLINE SHOULD SUPPORT EWD DEVELOPMENT OF THESE DEEPER CONVECTIVE CIRCULATIONS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO EVENTUAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. TUCUMCARI PROFILER HAS SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR NOW MARGINAL SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS. LARGE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. ..MEAD.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36550255 37000175 37009925 36809901 36439909 35999988 35840108 36090230  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 21:53:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 16:53:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507032204.j63M42au016772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032202 MOZ000-KSZ000-040000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032202Z - 040000Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND WRN MO SHORTLY. SCATTERED INTENSE STORMS WERE INCREASING ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF SCNTRL KS MCS. ENVIRONMENT IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE BUT GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO BE LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...GIVEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION FROM NEB/IA...AND GENERAL EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SEVERE MCS ACROSS SCNTRL KS...STORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AND STRENGTH OF MESOSCALE FORCING MAY COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO PROMOTE NUMEROUS MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. A WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR THIS SITUATION. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37559403 37669609 39919608 39959511 40539440 39499260 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 22:12:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 17:12:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507032223.j63MNjmG024781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032222 NEZ000-COZ000-040015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO AND SWRN NEB/SRN NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032222Z - 040015Z A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING ACROSS NERN CO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE/SWRN NEB. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SOON. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING EWD FROM THE FRONT RANGE. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS SRN NEB...NEAR I-80 CORRIDOR. AIR MASS HAS GRADUALLY RECOVERED ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN NEB AS CLOUD REMNANTS FROM MORNING MCS HAVE ADVECTED EAST OF THE REGION. GIVEN 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS SWRN NEB AND MINIMAL CINH...ONGOING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT ACROSS SWRN NEB DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SUGGEST THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER STORMS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND MARGINALLY LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD MINIMIZE TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..BANACOS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41240362 40330375 40050215 40159883 41399874 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 22:53:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 17:53:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507032304.j63N46NK006401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032302 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-040100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1624 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN....SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032302Z - 040100Z STORMS MAY INCREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN IA AND SRN MN...WAS WELL AS SWRN WI...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WATCH. ISOLATED STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS WORTH COUNTY IN NCNTRL IA. THIS CELL APPEARS TO BE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN IA WAS FEEDING INTO THIS ACTIVITY AND ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD FORM ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS WIND MAX NOTED IN PROFILER DATA OVER NEB MOVES EAST. WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT HAVE LIMITED DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT FORCING AND SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS OVER A SMALL CORRIDOR. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AND APPEAR TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY...A SMALL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 41779406 43659334 44369303 45009077 42199162 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 22:57:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 17:57:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507032308.j63N82AM007943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032307 KSZ000-040000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL KS INCLUDING WICHITA METRO AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589... VALID 032307Z - 040000Z ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT WICHITA AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST DURING THE NEXT HOUR. WW 589 CONTINUES IN EFFECT. VERY LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE SUPERCELL LOCATED OVER SRN RENO COUNTY KS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD AT 20-25KT. CURRENT MOTION BRINGS THIS STORM ACROSS ERN KINGMAN AND CENTRAL/WRN SEDGWICK COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT 60 TO 90 MINUTES. BROAD MESOCYCLONE WITH LARGE REGION OF 70+ VIL PER ICT 88D IMAGERY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS /IN EXCESS OF 64KT/ AND LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF BASEBALL SIZE. ALSO...INTENSITY AND AREA OF 50+KT INFLOW INTO THIS CELL HAS INCREASED...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME DAMAGE FROM HIGH WINDS AND POSSIBLY VERY LARGE WIND-DRIVEN HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...BROAD NATURE OF MESOCYCLONE SUGGESTS AN ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS IS LIKELY THE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS ICT AND AREAS NORTH/WEST. ..BANACOS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... 37899851 38349843 38539791 38659733 38669678 38069662 37469658 37159686 37149730 37169809 37299835 37439843 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 00:10:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 19:10:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040021.j640KxCi032450@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040020 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-040215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040020Z - 040215Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NRN OK AND SERN KS LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL BE LIKELY OVER THESE AREAS. LONG-LIVED AND VERY INTENSE HP SUPERCELL WITH DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND EXTREME WINDS WAS CONTINUING NEAR ICT THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXTENDED WWD ACROSS SWRN KS WHERE ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ATOP THE COLD POOL EAST OF DDC. MEANWHILE...A MID/UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND WAS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN/SERN CO. ONE OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS OVER SERN CO REGION WAS A SUPERCELL NOW APPEARING TO ACCELERATE SSEWD ACROSS BACA COUNTY IN SERN CO AND STANTON COUNTY IN FAR SWRN KS. THIS CELL MAY BE THE START OF A LARGER SCALE SEVERE MCS TO AFFECT PARTS OF NWRN OK AND THE NERN TX PNHDL IN A FEW HOURS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR WAVE SPREADING OUT OF CO SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN/SRN KS NEXT FEW HOURS. MASS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING MCS NEAR ICT WILL ALSO TEND TO MOVE TOWARD SERN KS/SWRN MO WITH TIME. GIVEN LARGE RESERVOIR OF EXTREME INSTABILITY SITUATED ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND SRN KS....IN CONJUNCTION WITH WNWLY MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THESE SYSTEMS AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE MOST LIKELY FORTHCOMING. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36569469 36589290 36639220 38919331 39049426 38099444 38039636 36979663 36900226 35370130 35299455 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 01:36:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 20:36:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040147.j641lKcD029799@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040144 KSZ000-COZ000-040215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0844 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588...589... VALID 040144Z - 040215Z GIVEN 02Z EXPIRATIONS OF SEVERE WATCHES 588 AND 589...REPLACEMENT SEVERE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SW/SCNTRL KS TO REPLACE WW 589. GIVEN EXPECTED DIMINISHING SEVERE TREND ACROSS NW/CNTRL KS...WW 588 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED 02Z. ..GUYER.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... 39840102 39529808 37029721 37150046 37080171 38500242 39620243  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 01:46:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 20:46:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040157.j641v3x0000854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040156 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-040300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1628 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590... VALID 040156Z - 040300Z SERIES OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG LEADING EDGES OF LARGE MCS COLD POOL HAVE MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF WATCH 590. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...MUCH OF NERN KS AND NWRN MO WILL BE CLEARED FROM THE WATCH IN NEXT STATUS MESSAGE. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 38099457 38099643 40509593 40499410 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 02:38:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 21:38:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040249.j642neXV017768@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040249 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040248 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1629 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0948 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO AND SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591... VALID 040248Z - 040415Z OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE OUTRUN CONVECTION OVER CNTRL MO LATE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG CELLS REMAIN NEAR THE OUTFLOW MOVING FROM SALINE COUNTY TO CHARITON COUNTY MO ATTM. MEANWHILE...EXTENSIVE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCS SWD THEN WWD TO INTERSECT AN INTENSE CELL TRACKING EAST ACROSS ALLEN COUNTY IN SERN KS. ENHANCED INFLOW OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND AS THIS STORM MOVES TOWARD BOURBON COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... 36629225 36539449 37099480 37039598 37659592 37939509 38009410 39169400 39319249 38009206 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 04:15:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 23:15:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040425.j644PuJ4018420@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040425 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040425 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-040600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1630 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS/NRN AND CNTRL OK/FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593...594... VALID 040425Z - 040600Z SEVERE TSTM WATCH 593 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NRN/CNTRL OK AND ERN TX PANHANDLE UNTIL 09Z...WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL INCREASING ACROSS NRN HALF OF OK. VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 594 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN KS UNTIL 06Z. SEVERE TSTMS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ONGOING ACROSS SRN KS INTO FAR NRN OK...WITH HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. VARIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SWD THROUGH NRN OK...AHEAD OF 1) INTENSE STORMS FROM CHANUTE KS TO NEAR PONCA CITY OK AND 2) LINE ROUGHLY ALONG HUTCHINSON KS-MEDICINE LODGE KS-GAGE OK CORRIDOR SURGING SEWD AT 35 KTS. AFOREMENTIONED STORMS IN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE TULSA METRO AREA AS EARLY AS 05Z-0530Z TIMEFRAME. LATTER MENTIONED LINE OF STORMS /HUT-P28-GAG AT 04Z/ EXPECTED TO IMPACT NW/NCNTRL INTO CNTRL OK OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO THE OKC METRO AREA BETWEEN 06Z-07Z...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY FURTHER LINE ACCELERATION. OVERALL SCENARIO OF STEADILY INCREASING SEWD PROPAGATION INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUPPORTED BY CONTINUAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT /WITH 3-5 MB PER 2-HR RISES AT 04Z/ AND INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT IN REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VADS. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WW 594/SRN KS...NORTH OF CONGLOMERATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO LARGE HAIL OWING TO REMNANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..GUYER.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37759916 37669716 37389667 36709495 35889460 35349519 35229716 35599935 36160025 37120024 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 04:51:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 23:51:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040502.j6452oRm001467@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040502 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040501 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-040630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO...NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040501Z - 040630Z A VERY LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND OK LATE TONIGHT. A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX...FROM EXTREME SWRN MO INTO NWRN AR...WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. A VERY LARGE AND INTENSE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SERN KS WITH A PAIR OF SEVERE SQUALL LINES EXTENDING SWD/SWWD ACROSS PARTS OF NERN OK AND NWRN OK ATTM. AIRMASS FEEDING INTO THIS COMPLEX REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE. LATEST TRENDS IN PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND WILL MAINTAIN STRONG MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT...FROM NRN OK EWD INTO NWRN AR. OVERALL PATTERN AND SYSTEM MOTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT A SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY EXPAND EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WOULD BRING SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO PARTS OF AR AND SWRN MO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...A NEW WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPMENT IN ABOUT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... 35139450 35749449 37579456 37569241 35149238 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 06:31:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 01:31:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040644.j646hg7f002352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040640 ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1632 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE/SRN HALF OF OK/NRN TX/WRN AR/SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591...593... VALID 040640Z - 040715Z STRONGEST BOW ECHO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 593 DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS...WITH WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT REACHING FAR ERN OK TO ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER BY 09Z. HAIL...WITH LESS OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED ATTM TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND PARTS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE SOUTH OF WW 593. WELL ORGANIZED BOW ECHO CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM SERN KS /50 NNW BVO/ TO JUST NORTH OF THE OKC METRO AREA...WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING WEST THEN WNWWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. A LEAD LINE OF STORMS ALSO MOVING ESE EXTENDED FROM SERN KS TO AROUND TUL. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE PRIMARY BOW ECHO SEWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK TO WRN AR AND NRN-NERN TX. THIS AXIS...GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND 40-45 KT SLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL OK...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A MORE PERSISTENT WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT. WEST OF THIS REGION INTO WRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND POTENTIALLY NWRN TX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HAVE ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOCATED ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 45-50 KT SLY LLJ LOCATED FROM WRN TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK WILL MAINTAIN WAA REGIME FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. 45-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY BOW. ..PETERS.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA... 36460104 37070032 37149898 36569796 36829687 37599655 37249539 36759380 34569341 33349425 33029590 33319882 33799984 35490100 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 07:43:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 02:43:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040754.j647siRQ027868@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040753 MIZ000-WIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-040930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN-ERN WI AND LAKE MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040753Z - 040930Z ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL AND NEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A TROUGH MOVING EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SSWWD TO SWRN WI AND THEN INTO CENTRAL IA TO ERN/SERN NEB. 30 KT SWLY LLJ LOCATED EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY AND NOSING INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA ACROSS THIS AREA. ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT OF A 35 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND THE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. INFLOW TO THESE THUNDERSTORMS PER SWLY LLJ IS ORIGINATING FROM IA WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS REMAINED MODERATELY UNSTABLE. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK SUGGESTING STORMS WILL TEND TO BE PULSE WITH ISOLATED HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 41188748 40418888 41019107 41419205 42419240 43299144 44389006 45548833 45568701 44498591 42918647 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 07:50:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 02:50:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040801.j6481jNx030141@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040800 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-041000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1634 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB/NW KS/FAR NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040800Z - 041000Z POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARY THREAT OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST/DEVELOP S/SE ACROSS SW NEB/FAR NE CO INTO NW KS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WATCH. PERSISTENT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX -- LOCATED BETWEEN SIDNEY AND IMPERIAL NEB AT 08Z -- CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND S/SE...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE OVER THE PAST HOUR. COMPLEX MAY BE AIDED BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SRN WY/NRN CO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP S/SE OVERNIGHT INVOF ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. 06Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AS MUCH AS 750-1000 J/KG MUCAPE FOR ELEVATED PARCELS. AMPLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS EXISTS OVER THE REGION PER PROFILER NETWORK/LOCAL WSR-88D VADS IN ACCORDANCE WITH RUC GUIDANCE. SRN EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT/POTENTIAL SEVERITY APPEARS QUESTIONABLE PROGRESSIVELY SWD INTO ECNTRL CO/WCNTRL KS GIVEN OVERTURNED NATURE OF AIRMASS VIA EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. ..GUYER.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41500215 41570104 40890011 40220005 38790031 38820245 39750303 40910294 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 08:18:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 03:18:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040829.j648Tfeg008813@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040828 OKZ000-TXZ000-040900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL OK AND FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593... VALID 040828Z - 040900Z WW 593 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ISOLATED THREAT SUGGESTS A NEW WW SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE BOW ECHO EXTENDED FROM NERN OK SWWD TO FAR SERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OK...WITH THE OUTFLOW THEN TRAILING WSWWD INTO SWRN OK NEAR LTS AND THEN ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. STRONGEST INFLOW OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS INTO ERN/ SERN OK SUGGESTING STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE IN WW 595 THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VALID PORTION OF WW 593 AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS A 45 KT SWLY LLJ NOSES INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK SUPPORTING STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA ATOP COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF THE BOW. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WEAKER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA... 35280076 36460028 36849944 36389660 35509752 34759864 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 10:02:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 05:02:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507041013.j64ADKcs018540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041012 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-041115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN 2/3 OF OK INTO NWRN AR/FAR SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595... VALID 041012Z - 041115Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF OK. TRENDS IN RADAR DATA INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE BOW ECHO INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR AND ERN OK DURING THE LAST HOUR. THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THIS BOW EXTENDED WSWWD ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL-SWRN OK ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN SWWD TO NEAR LBB. STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE EARLY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA REGIME ALONG THE NOSE OF A 45 KT SSWLY LLJ AND ATOP THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLIER BOW ECHO. THIS NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS...GIVEN 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34509966 34909946 35479906 36089952 36289924 36119808 36149705 35919554 36009504 36919489 36849250 35159400 34099476 33849581 34129893 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 16:05:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 11:05:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507041616.j64GG9n1007386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041614 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041613 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-041745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1637 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL SWWD INTO E-CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041613Z - 041745Z SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 1557Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM APPROXIMATELY 35 SE DBQ TO 25 NNW STL...WITH MORE ISOLATED CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP AS FAR S AS 35 W OF CGI. MODIFICATION OF 12Z ILX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OF DEVELOPING STORMS YIELDS SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP. DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS MO WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. RECENT TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW VEERING SURFACE WINDS WHICH IS RESULTING IN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE PROFILE /PER LOCAL VWPS/VADS/. NONETHELESS... STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR DEVELOPING TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39439073 41039002 41728933 42158827 42128764 41558726 40628763 39168875 38398930 38168996 38189055 38829098 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 16:25:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 11:25:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507041636.j64GaXKo016106@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041635 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-041800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1638 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR SWWD INTO NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041635Z - 041800Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW DEEPENING CUMULUS/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING FROM NEAR ELD SWWD TO W OF TYR ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER SRN OK. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS WARMED THROUGH THE 80S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...SUPPORTING VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS...IT APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /PER LOCAL PROFILERS/ WILL BE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..MEAD.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD... 32309683 32799587 33549413 34209301 34869262 34919212 34119158 32979226 32159326 31669474 31379642 31659698 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 17:12:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 12:12:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507041722.j64HMwUO005194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041722 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041721 MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-041845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO INTO N-CNTRL/NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041721Z - 041845Z AN INCREASING THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ALONG COLD FRONT FROM W OF STL TO SSE OF TBN WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ AIR MASS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PLAN VIEW VAD/VWP FIELDS INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF 40-45 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN MO...FROM NERN OK/SWRN MO INTO CNTRL IL...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD/NEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM STL SWD TO ALONG NRN EXTENSION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NERN AR /NEAR OR W OF ARG/. THIS COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LINE SEGMENTS AND STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 38309123 38479096 38489020 37258977 35419065 35189201 35509240 36869219 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 17:15:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 12:15:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507041726.j64HQBaB006852@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041725 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041724 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-041930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1640 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...ERN/NERN CO...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041724Z - 041930Z FOOTHILLS OF SERN WY SWD ALONG CO FRONT RANGE ARE BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WW WITHIN NEXT 2-4 HOURS. ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-BORDER REGION OF CO/WY/NEB THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AT 17Z...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN KS WNWWD TO JUST SOUTH OF AKO TO ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES FROM CYS/CPR. SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND SFC ANTICYCLONE AND NORTH OF FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS NWWD ACROSS NERN CO INTO SERN WY THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL STATUS DISSIPATES ACROSS SERN WY THIS AFTERNOON...INSOLATION SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS LIKELY HOLDING IN THE MID 50S IN FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE UPPER DYNAMIC FEATURES APPEAR DIFFUSE UPSTREAM...MODELS MAINTAIN BAND OF 30-35KT 500MB FLOW ACROSS SERN WY/NERN CO THROUGH 03/00Z. ALSO...500MB TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY COOL FOR JULY WITH -12C ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SPREADING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN WY/NERN CO DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...PROFILES WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS /SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT/ WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. SFC T-TD SPREADS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY LARGE FOR TORNADOES DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. GREATEST THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD BE WITHIN PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND IN AREAS OF BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED ACROSS NERN CO INTO THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SERN WY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 39730446 41190522 42480603 42880572 42880415 42780366 42130280 41040218 39320213 38750214 38770330 38750426 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 18:11:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 13:11:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507041822.j64IM9fq022885@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041821 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041821 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-041945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1641 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS/W-CNTRL INTO NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041821Z - 041945Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 1810Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SPIRAL-SHAPED CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM NEAR HSV WWD TO TUP AND THEN SEWD TO S OF TCL ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. WHILE OKOLONA MS PROFILER INDICATES QUITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING NEWD AROUND VORTICITY MAX WILL SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING/STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH WBZH OF 11.5-12.5 KFT WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE MELTING OF ANY HAIL STONES. STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD OUT OF NERN MS ACROSS NRN AL AND INTO SRN MIDDLE TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...WITHIN REGION OF STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER DISTURBANCE. ..MEAD.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 33438924 34248912 34978826 35488779 35798679 35498611 34918604 34388628 33658649 32978679 32618737 32848870 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 19:08:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 14:08:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507041919.j64JJgOQ014135@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041919 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041918 MIZ000-INZ000-042045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1642 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI INTO NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041918Z - 042045Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS REGION AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD/DEVELOPING TSTMS FROM CNTRL LOWER MI INTO N-CNTRL IND ALONG/E OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT EXTENDING FROM N OF LAN SWWD TO JUST E OF SBN. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. FARTHER N...PERSISTENT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION HAVE ESTABLISHED A W-E ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ACROSS CNTRL LOWER MI...WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING RAPIDLY N OF THIS BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40-45 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST: 1) WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED ALONG ALONG THE WIND SHIFT OR ALONG/S OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...AND/OR 2) IF CURRENT STRONG/SEVERE STORM NE OF CHI CAN MAINTAIN IT/S INTENSITY WHILE MOVING ACROSS SRN LAKE MI. ..MEAD.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41428605 41748674 42638628 43268477 43468377 43028271 42018323 41778457 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 19:54:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 14:54:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507042005.j64K545L001964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042003 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-042200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1643 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX AND FAR E-CENTRAL/NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042003Z - 042200Z ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS...AND IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR E-CENTRAL/NERN NM. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. A WW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY BE MARGINAL. AT 1930Z...MAF 88D SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THERMAL LOW OVER SWRN TX WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE EXTENDING E-W FROM 40NE HOB TO 30N ABI PER VIS SATELLITE AND WEST TX MESONET OBS. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED WWD INTO LBB AREA NEAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG FROM NEAR LBB SSEWD TO SJT. BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THIS REGION...AND IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE S-SE OF LBB. REMAINING CAPPING AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE INHIBITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH-BASED TOWERING CU SPREADING OFF THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN ROCKIES MAY SEPARATELY DEVELOP INTO ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS FAR E-CENTRAL/NERN NM AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS WNWWD. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 20KT SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS OR SMALL MULTICELLULAR STORM CLUSTERS. STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS MAY ALSO SUPPORT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS DCAPE VALUES INCREASE WITH CONTINUED DEEPENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ..BANACOS.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 32119921 31729907 31489922 31300000 31350044 32060109 32930223 33990365 35040457 35860488 36490494 36860472 37000436 36930307 35230260 34120050 33749987 33369955 32779936 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 20:13:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 15:13:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507042024.j64KOfsZ010438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042022 INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-042145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1644 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL SWWD INTO SERN MO AND NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596...597... VALID 042022Z - 042145Z THROUGH 22-23Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FROM E-CNTRL IL SWWD THROUGH SRN IL INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL. AS OF 2004Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN ISOLATED STORM OVER MOULTRIE COUNTY IN CNTRL IL WITH A MORE CONTINUOUS LINE OF TSTMS FROM ST. CLAIR COUNTY IL SWWD INTO IZARD COUNTY IN N-CNTRL AR. THE MOULTRIE COUNTY STORM IS MOVING 240/30-35 KTS AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH ERN EDGE OF WW 596 BY AROUND 2130Z. MEANWHILE...NRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER ST. CLAIR COUNTY IL HAS EVOLVED INTO A BOWING STRUCTURE AND ACCELERATED EWD AT 30-35 KTS. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM VICINITY OF THE ST. CLAIR COUNTY STORM SWWD INTO NERN AR WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG. FARTHER N OVER CNTRL AND ERN IL...AIR MASS IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ OWING TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND COMPARATIVELY LESS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND VAD/VWP DISPLAYS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL MO SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. THROUGH 22-23Z...EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO REMAIN CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOULTRIE COUNTY STORM WILL APPROACH ERN EDGE OF WW 596 BY 2130Z...SO CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW INTO CNTRL IND. ..MEAD.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 42098832 42038691 38218789 38248839 35049008 35189285 38259130 38339021 40318978 40418928  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 03:57:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 22:57:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507050408.j6548ZSZ021105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050406 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050405 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-050500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601... VALID 050405Z - 050500Z LATEST RADAR AND OTHER OBSERVATIONAL DATA WERE INDICATING A SEWD MOVING COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW MOVING ACROSS DDC AREA. A 55KT WIND GUST WAS OBSERVED AT GCK EARLIER BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM DDC...AS WELL AS VIL TRENDS...WOULD SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DECAY...A NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 37030003 36990207 37550205 37610044 39410029 39389998 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 06:38:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 01:38:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507050649.j656nfkn012397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050649 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050648 TXZ000-NMZ000-050715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1654 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050648Z - 050715Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TX INTO FAR SERN NM. STRONG WIND GUSTS...SOME PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE...WILL BE LIKELY WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY SINCE 06Z WITH A BOW STRUCTURE CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM ERN LAMB COUNTY TX SWWD TO NRN LEA COUNTY NM. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS REMAINED MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVELY UN-TURNED...WITH THIS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY EXTENDING SSEWD TO A LINE FROM INK-MAF-50 W ABI. AIR MASS S AND E OF THIS LINE HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED...AND THUS SHOULD PROVIDE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP A MOIST SELY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. ..PETERS.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF... 34230183 34180075 33110065 32240082 32020153 31840236 31790308 32730359 33120355 33490233 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 08:17:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 03:17:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507050828.j658SiRG019316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050827 OKZ000-051000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 050827Z - 051000Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NWRN OK...MOVING SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN OK. FARTHER S...ZONE OF TRAINING STORMS LOCATED W-E FROM SRN CADDO AND COMANCHE COUNTIES TO SERN OK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR. ...NWRN INTO NRN/CENTRAL OK... SRN EXTENT OF BOW ECHO WHICH EXTENDED FROM SRN KS /20 E HUT/ SWWD INTO NWRN OK /45 NNE CSM/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO NRN AND CENTRAL OK...LIKELY REACHING THE OKC METRO AREA BETWEEN 10-12Z. WEAK ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOW STRUCTURE WILL INHIBIT STORM RELATIVE INFLOW FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL AND 50 KT OF NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR PROPAGATION TOWARD THE SE. SRN PORTION OF THIS BOW ACROSS NWRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONGEST AS THIS PART MOVES SEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT...WITH CURRENT FORWARD MOVEMENT OF 25-30 KT EXPECTED TO PERSIST. ...SRN OK... REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SRN CADDO/COMANCHE COUNTIES EWD TO SERN OK...WITH THIS ACTIVITY TRAINING EWD. 25 KT SLY LLJ PER WSR-88D VADS AND WIND PROFILERS IS NOSING INTO THE WRN EXTENT OF THESE STORMS. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING GENERALLY E-W ACROSS NRN TX...WITH THE NEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL OK SUPPORTED BY MOIST/UNSTABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA WITH THE LLJ. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST 1 IN/HOUR RAINFALL RATES. STRONGEST EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SWRN-WRN OK ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND AS A 50 KT NWLY MID LEVEL JET SPREADS INTO THIS AREA. THUS...A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN... 36939811 36759706 36149646 35779574 35119544 34529501 34029507 34159653 34439788 34379868 34579902 35389937 35989951 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 08:48:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 03:48:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507050859.j658xKoD032764@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050858 TXZ000-NMZ000-051000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1656 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX AND FAR SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604... VALID 050858Z - 051000Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE TX PORTION OF WW 604. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THE GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX HAS MOVED WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY NEW STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV NOW LOCATED NEAR LBB. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE AIR MASS ACROSS WRN TX REMAINED MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. THUS...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE MCV TRACKS TOWARD THE SSE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..PETERS.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... 32830023 31390293 33050400 34500131 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 16:16:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 11:16:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507051627.j65GRMs2008135@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051626 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-051800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OH INTO WRN PORTIONS OF PA/NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051626Z - 051800Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 1615Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING ALONG COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL OH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN/CNTRL OH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS INTENSIFICATION. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS ERN OH INTO WRN PA/NY IS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION THUS FAR TODAY. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER SERN OH INTO SWRN PA AND OVER WRN NY SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING. WHEN COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS. SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH 25-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR /PER LOCAL VWPS/ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. ..MEAD.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 40738236 41528141 42128033 42957886 42247766 40747830 39667980 39368153 39238231 39918263 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 16:45:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 11:45:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507051656.j65GuHff027394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051655 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051655 VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-051830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1658 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051655Z - 051830Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH INTENSIFYING STORMS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS INTENSIFYING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM 30 SW OF MSS SWD TO NEAR MSV. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN A WEAKLY FORCED LARGE-SCALE ENVIR0NMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP TROPOSPHERIC SWLY FLOW. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IT APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT BECOMES APPARENT A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...A WW WOULD NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. ..MEAD.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF... 41807498 44547564 45007475 45017241 41677293 41247394 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 17:30:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 12:30:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507051741.j65HfbQT022722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051740 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-052015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / SRN MS / SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051740Z - 052015Z WE ARE MONITORING THE AREA FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FEEDING NWD E OF LOW CENTER...WITH DEWPOINTS OF 75-80. IN ADDITION...SOME HEATING WAS OCCURRING AT MIDDAY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN AL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR OF 15-25 KTS...AND 0-1 SRH VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25-50 M2/S2 ONSHORE. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES ARE LIKELY STRONGER FARTHER SW CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS TROPICAL LOW CENTER NEARS THE COAST. IF WIND PROFILES INCREASE...A TORNADO WATCH WOULD BE LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30458711 31208721 31328824 31118941 30439039 30079032 28908928 29308878 29768795 29808696 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 17:53:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 12:53:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507051804.j65I4nF0003949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051801 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-051930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...VA/NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051801Z - 051930Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. APPEARS TWO REGIMES MAY FOCUS CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE FIRST IS ALONG AND E OF A PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF MRB TO W OF RIC TO E OF RWI. A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED E OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY FROM NEAR RIC TO W OF ORF TO E OF RWI. MOREOVER...MORE SLY SURFACE WINDS OVER ERN VA/NC WHEN COUPLED WITH MODEST /I.E. 20-25 KT/ WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...RELATIVELY HIGH WBZH OF 12-13 KFT WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE MELTING. THE SECOND REGIME IS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN VA/NC EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ERN KY/TN. WHILE DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY ARE COMPARATIVELY LOWER THAN POINTS TO THE E...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP FOCUS INCREASING STORM COVERAGE INTO THE PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT A GREATER THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL WITH THESE STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP... 35468160 36638141 37867980 38127851 38217716 37297630 35827657 34867699 34097831 34847992  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 18:24:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 13:24:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507051835.j65IZibW021494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051834 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-051930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO INTO NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051834Z - 051930Z POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AND A WW WILL BE REQUIRED BY 20Z. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE SWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE IN NRN NM. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN WNWLY MEAN FLOW IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS WRN INTO CNTRL CO...WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. MODIFICATION OF 18Z DEN SOUNDING FOR SURFACE CONDITIONS AT LIC YIELDS SBCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP. GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS ON LOCAL VADS/VWPS...EXPECT DEVELOPING STORMS TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 40930571 40990260 35770268 35890560 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 18:43:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 13:43:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507051854.j65IsRoq032429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051853 NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-COZ000-052030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1662 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY INTO WRN SD AND THE NEB PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051853Z - 052030Z APPEARS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A WW WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE 20Z. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS WITH ADDITIONAL DEEPENING CUMULUS ALONG LEE TROUGH NE OF CPR SWD TO CYS. 18Z RAP SOUNDING SHOWS THAT AIR MASS OVER WRN SD HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ WITH LIKELY A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WWD INTO ERN WY. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER ERN WY INTO WRN SD. MODEST /20-25 KT/ WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SLY/SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..MEAD.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 45010632 45000250 41020246 41000624 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 22:56:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 17:56:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507052307.j65N7b6s005622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052306 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-060030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1663 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0606 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052306Z - 060030Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES...WITHIN THE HOUR. A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CRESTING THE BROAD UPR RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS HAS AGAIN SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS ERN CO THIS EVENING. A MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION RESULTING FROM NUMEROUS STORM MERGERS FROM WRN CHEYENNE COUNTY SWWD TO PUEBLO COUNTY CO WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A DEEPENING COLD POOL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ESEWD TOWARD KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE COLD POOL COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER FLOW FOR FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WITH THIS COMPLEX. THEREFORE...A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 35800006 35810218 39340202 39259986 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 00:05:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 19:05:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507060016.j660GhRL000878@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060013 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-060215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0713 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...WRN SD...NEB PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606... VALID 060013Z - 060215Z A NUMBER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WRN SD AND THE NEB PNHDL THIS EVENING. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WAS NOTED OVER ERN WY. MOST PERSISTENT STORM CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER DAWES COUNTY NEB. THIS CONVECTION WAS DRIFTING SOUTH INTO A POCKET OF STRONG INSTABILITY. OTHER VIGOROUS STORMS WERE OCCURRING ON AND NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT...FROM THE NERN PART OF WATCH 606...OVER WRN SD...EWD ACROSS SCNTRL SD. FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM PASSING MID LEVEL IMPULSE...COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY... SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SEVERE HAIL AND WIND INTO THE EVENING. A SMALL MCS OR TWO MAY NOW BE EVOLVING FROM THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEVELOPMENT LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SEVERE POTENTIAL CAN PERSIST ACROSS WRN NEB. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IF IT APPEARS STORMS CAN MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. ..CARBIN.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ... 40970193 40930495 44950608 44910286  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 00:39:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 19:39:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507060050.j660o5rw014014@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060047 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-060245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1665 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / SRN MS / SRN AL / FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 607... VALID 060047Z - 060245Z AREA VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE THAT SHEAR MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ABOUT 100 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH NOTED ON LIX RADAR. HOWEVER...FLOW DECREASES WITH HEIGHT ABOVE 3-4 KM AND SUGGESTS MINIMAL THREAT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. FARTHER E...MOB VAD INDICATES STRENGTHENING FLOW. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES STRENGTHENING FLOW AS WELL...WITH HODOGRAPHS BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AFTER ABOUT 04Z. HOWEVER...RUC DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW LOCATION. THE NAM DEPICTS THE LOW LOCATION WELL...BUT THE WIND PROFILES FORECAST BY THIS MODEL ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE. GIVEN INCREASING FLOW ON MOB VWP AND APPROACHING CYCLONE CENTER...THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES DEVELOPING...WHERE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR. ..JEWELL.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... 30858907 31308745 31328532 29588477 29658601 29478837 30348876  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 02:47:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 21:47:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507060258.j662w7JD001224@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060257 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-060430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0957 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...ERN CO...WRN KS...NERN NM AND TX/OK PNHDLS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605...606... VALID 060257Z - 060430Z SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 605 AND 606 WILL EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. WHILE A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS COULD EXPERIENCE SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR A SUSTAINED THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE THE TX PNHDL...AND PERHAPS A SMALL PORTION OF WRN NEB. A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...WAS WITHIN AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FROM NERN NM INTO THE TX AND OK PNHDLS. THIS BAND OF INTENSE STORMS CONTINUES NEWD TO A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRATIFORM RAIN REGION OF A SMALL MCS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SWRN KS. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SEWD ALONG RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE INTO NWRN OK. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE KS MCS APPEARS LIMITED BY DECREASING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING INHIBITION. STORMS WITHIN THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PNHDLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS ERN NM AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF HAIL AND OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS. FARTHER NORTH...A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT OF STORMS WAS MOVING INTO NWRN KS AND INTO CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR MASS WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS EXPANDING ALONG A SEWD MOVING ARC ACROSS NRN NEB...OVER CHERRY COUNTY. INSTABILITY AND INFLOW INTO THIS COMPLEX COULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ALONG THIS LINE AS IT SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE REST OF NEB TONIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 34560309 34660500 36220522 37640260 39570360 41120367 41930347 43070197 43089984 42949918 40899903 37039899 35400073 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 07:06:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 02:06:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507060716.j667GuAo006802@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060716 TXZ000-060745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1667 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL AND NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060716Z - 060745Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL INTO NWRN TX... PRIMARILY THE LUBBOCK FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BOW STRUCTURE WITH ASSOCIATED COLD POOL OVER WRN TX...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOW CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CASTRO TO YOAKUM COUNTIES. INSTABILITY REMAINED FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT...WITH 30 KT OF SELY LOW LEVEL INFLOW RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF ESE MOVEMENT. VAD DATA FROM CVS 88D IN ERN NM INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS ERN NM AROUND 05Z...WITH A BAND OF 35-40 KT WNWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE NOW SPREADING INTO WRN TX. MOIST INFLOW COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE WNWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE BOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 33090274 33660233 34460216 34470093 34349969 33419949 32430030 32680261 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 08:39:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 03:39:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507060850.j668oBRM014198@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060847 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060847 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-060945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1668 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS/SRN AND CENTRAL AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 608... VALID 060847Z - 060945Z THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM RELATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD THIS MORNING ACROSS SERN MS INTO SWRN-SRN AND CENTRAL AL...AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. AT 08Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THE CENTER OF T.S. "CINDY" LOCATED OVER FAR SERN LA /40 NNW BVE/. NHC FORECAST TRACK TAKES CINDY NEWD ACROSS FAR SERN MS INTO SWRN AL TODAY...WITH THE FAVORABLE E AND NE QUADRANT CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS SERN MS AND SWRN AL AND INTO SRN/CENTRAL AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. STRONGEST BAND OF CONVECTION WAS ORIENTED GENERALLY N-S FROM FAR SERN MS/FAR SWRN AL SWD TO THE NRN GULF /APPROX. 125 SE BVE/. RADAR DATA HAS INDICATED OCCASIONAL LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH A FEW STORMS IN THIS CONVECTIVE BAND...WHILE LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED AN INCREASE IN STRIKES. DRY INTRUSION EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA JUST WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND WOULD SUGGEST THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE WITH AND E/NE OF THIS BAND OF STORMS. AREA WSR-88D VADS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 300 M2/S2...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT/. THESE SHEAR VALUES WITHIN A VERY MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AIDS IN DESTABILIZING THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29998956 30878955 31618942 32378860 32688730 32508523 31048517 29658549 29538651 29458811 30038860  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 09:34:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 04:34:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507060945.j669jaER004527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060944 OKZ000-TXZ000-061045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1669 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609... VALID 060944Z - 061045Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN/SERN PARTS OF WW 609 FOR THE NEXT HOUR...WHILE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD POOL REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER GARZA AND KENT COUNTIES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE VALUES /47 KT GUST IN GARZA COUNTY NEAR 09Z/. THIS PORTION OF THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...WHICH EXTENDED FROM COTTLE COUNTY TO KENT COUNTY...SHOULD REACH NERN FISHER TO STONEWALL COUNTIES BY 10Z. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED WEAKER DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY /EAST OF WW 609/...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS...BOTH OF WHICH SUGGEST A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE COLD POOL REGION ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT BURST TYPE WIND GUSTS. THESE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE RESULT OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THIS REGION AIDING IN AN INCREASE IN DOWNWARD VERTICAL ACCELERATION WITH POCKETS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB... 32990273 34640211 34599999 34409969 32990030 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 12:39:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 07:39:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507061250.j66CoDoY020825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061248 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-061345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1670 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS/CENTRAL AND SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SWRN AND WRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 610... VALID 061248Z - 061345Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 610 THIS MORNING. RADAR/ SATELLITE TRENDS WITH T.S. CINDY SUGGEST A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF WRN/SWRN GA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A SERIES OF DISCRETE STORMS ALONG THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF T.S. CINDY...WITH THIS BAND EXTENDING FROM MONROE COUNTY AL SWD ACROSS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NRN GULF. RADAR DATA ALSO SHOWED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH EACH OF THESE STORMS. THE NRN MOST STORMS WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE BAND HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK NWD INTO THE EXTENSIVE RAIN SHIELD SPREADING INLAND IN ADVANCE OF CINDY. HOWEVER...TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...AND INLAND ACROSS SRN AL THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR T.S. TORNADOES. VIS IMAGERY INDICATED THE STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING/BEST REGION FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FL PANHANDLE NWD ACROSS SERN AL INTO SWRN GA. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND....WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING TREND FOR TORNADOES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30238856 30998869 31788864 32368841 32628795 32738601 32578508 31478487 30598494 29708519 29818665 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 14:05:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 09:05:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507061416.j66EGcRD007566@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061414 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-061515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1671 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0914 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 610... VALID 061414Z - 061515Z POTENTIAL FOR MINI SUPERCELL AND INHERENT TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND NO REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. CINDY HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG FROM JUST E/NE OF CIRCULATION EWD THROUGH TAE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THIS SAME AREA IS LIMITING ANY AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. A NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER TODAY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS REGION OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ..MEAD.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 32348844 32348535 30198554 30168857 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 16:38:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 11:38:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507061649.j66GnXqa006428@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061648 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061648 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-061815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1672 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN INTO E-CNTRL AL AND W-CNTRL/SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061648Z - 061815Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS AREA AND WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY PRIOR TO 18Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS REMNANT CINDY CIRCULATION N OF MOB AND W OF GZH WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE FROM THIS LOW E THROUGH DHN AND THEN NEWD TO S OF MCN. A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE HAVE ALLOWED AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. LOCAL VWPS FROM EGLIN AFB...FT. RUCKER AND MAXWELL AFB INDICATE RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PERSISTING E OF THE LOW WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. APPEARS GREATEST THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH MINI SUPERCELLS AS THEY CROSS WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ..MEAD.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31218731 32158747 32978565 33328475 33068394 31658384 30898560 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 17:53:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 12:53:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507061804.j66I4gRv020384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061804 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061803 COZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-061930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1673 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO INTO NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061803Z - 061930Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 19-20Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS/SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE SWD THROUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE IN NERN NM. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE ALLOWED IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES OF NOW AROUND 1000 J/KG. FURTHER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS ERN CO INTO ERN NM WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG. LOCAL VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE WEAKER MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST S OR SSELY STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH TIME...STORM PROPAGATION ALONG ANY ORGANIZING COLD POOLS MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ERN CO AND NERN NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ..MEAD.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 41010585 40990282 35770306 35750567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 18:13:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 13:13:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507061824.j66IO3Z3001770@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061823 LAZ000-TXZ000-062030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1674 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061823Z - 062030Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WWD ACROSS SERN TX WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THE AIR MASS HAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND MAY DESTABILIZE FURTHER WITH HEATING. WITH NO CIN PRESENT...STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR WITHIN DEEPENING SFC TROUGH. AREA PROFILERS INDICATE WEAK SHEAR PROFILES...THUS PULSE TYPE CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS GIVEN VERY WARM AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER. ..JEWELL.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 29699382 29369485 29209555 29069706 29089819 29509876 30119917 30369796 30839706 31249673 31839673 32239730 32829726 33069706 32749534 32239421 31689420 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 18:42:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 13:42:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507061853.j66IqvgH019346@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061851 NMZ000-TXZ000-062015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1675 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL INTO SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061851Z - 062015Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WITH ADDITIONAL DEEPENING CUMULUS E OF 4CR. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. PROFILERS FROM TUCUMCARI AND WHITE SANDS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES CONSIDERABLY WITH SWD EXTENT...SUGGESTING STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR AND GENERALLY DISORGANIZED. THE STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OWING TO THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. ..MEAD.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 32030575 33930570 34880552 35060492 34840385 33340377 31940417 31850488 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 19:01:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 14:01:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507061911.j66JBndu031396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061910 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-062015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1676 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AL INTO W-CNTRL GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 611... VALID 061910Z - 062015Z A HEIGHTENED THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM MGM TO CSG. AS OF 1901Z...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN LARGER PRECIPITATION REGION OVER ELMORE...MONTGOMERY AND MACON COUNTIES IN AL. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED INVOF A WARM FRONT OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE EXTENDING FROM REMNANT CINDY CIRCULATION SW OF SEM ENEWD TO N OF MCN. ENVIRONMENT ALONG/JUST N OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2 /PER LOCAL VWPS/. EXPECT THIS FAVORABLE REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP NNEWD WITH TIME IN ADVANCE OF MIGRATORY CIRCULATION...POSSIBLY REQUIRING AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH OVER NERN AL INTO NWRN GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. ..MEAD.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 33228616 33418418 30878418 30678624 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 20:29:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 15:29:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507062039.j66Kdswv020642@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062037 MTZ000-062200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1677 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL INTO NERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062037Z - 062200Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AND AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD FROM AROUND GTF EWD THROUGH LWT WITHIN A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SHIFTING EWD THROUGH WA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. WHILE LOCAL AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE HIGH-BASED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ..MEAD.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 49021123 49000695 46700723 46641165  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 21:41:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 16:41:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507062152.j66LqPXn030186@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062151 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-062315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1678 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062151Z - 062315Z SEVERE WIND MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY N OF LBB. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE TX PANHANDLE SWD TO EAST OF MAF...WITH CU FIELDS EVIDENT ON MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY. CHARACTER OF THE CU SUGGEST SOME CAPPING REMAINS. GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR...HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS NOW OVER NERN NM...WHICH WILL MOVE S AND SEWD INTO THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 33870297 32590210 32000139 31890049 32240056 32890084 34090058 35460088 36700119 36730249 36310349 34930333 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 23:02:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 18:02:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507062313.j66NDI7P002957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062311 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-062345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1679 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN GA...ERN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 611...612...613... VALID 062311Z - 062345Z CENTER OF REMNANT CINDY WAS OVER PERRY COUNTY AL AT 23Z AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ALONG PRESSURE FALL AXIS INTO NERN AL THROUGH THE EVENING. A COUPLE BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY THROUGH ERN AL AND WRN GA. STRONGEST STORMS ARE FAVORING WRN GA WHERE AIR MASS IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. BUT...STRONG TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED VCNTY THE LOW CORE OVER COOSA COUNTY AL SINCE 2230Z. VWPS SHOWING 0-1KM SHEARS IN EXCESS OF 30-35 KTS IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF REMNANT CINDY. GIVEN RADAR PRESENTATION OF SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL COUPLETS...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL PROBABLY LAST BEYOND THE 00Z EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCHES 611/613. AS A RESULT...A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF WRN GA/ERN AL. ..RACY.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... 30848522 31848518 32458581 32998659 34098626 34368458 34308419 32898423 31038426 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 00:26:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 19:26:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507070037.j670bAvA006538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070032 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-070230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1680 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEBRASKA / FAR ERN CO / NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070032Z - 070230Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MOVE EWD INTO NEBRASKA AND KS. SEVERE STORMS OVER WASHINGTON AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN CO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL EWD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE STORM SPLITS. 00Z LBF SOUNDING SHOWS VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH NO CAP...AND ALSO VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. DDC SOUNDING IS ALSO FAVORABLE BUT A SMALL CAP EXISTS. IN EITHER CASE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS AND WITH STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. ..JEWELL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU... 39550276 40150278 40880127 41220067 39160017 38310005 38800281 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 02:13:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 21:13:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507070224.j672OMvX024435@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070223 OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-070300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1681 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND EXTREME WRN TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 612...615... VALID 070223Z - 070300Z STRONGER TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS NERN NM EWD INTO THE TX PNHDL THIS EVENING AND APPEAR TO BE GAINING A STRONGER COLD POOL WITH TIME. FARTHER N ACROSS ERN CO...TSTMS HAVE DIMINISHED. LATEST RUC/NAM HAVE BEEN ALLUDING TO AN INCREASE IN THE LLJ ACROSS WRN TX THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND LATEST VWP/PROFILERS ARE BEARING THIS OUT WITH 25-35 KT SELY FLOW AT LBB/AMA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SSEWD PROPAGATION TO THE MATURING MCS...INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALONG THE OLD FRONT SITUATED NW-SE ACROSS THE TX PNHDL. THIS WILL BRING ENHANCED THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE AMA-LBB-CVS CORRIDOR BETWEEN 0245-0400Z. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 612 EXPIRES AT 03Z. BUT...A FEW COUNTIES IN THE FAR WRN TX PNHDL COUNTIES MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND 03Z PENDING STORM EVOLUTION. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE WS 615. ..RACY.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 39290271 36910253 36580163 36349995 33910036 33830278 34130436 34430464 36620426 37430447 38070473 38890415 39250360 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 02:44:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 21:44:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507070255.j672thtA006556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070253 GAZ000-ALZ000-070500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1682 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0953 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL/GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 614... VALID 070253Z - 070500Z ...TORNADO THREAT PERSISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 614 SOUTH AND EAST OF ATLANTA. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS NEAR RANDOLPH COUNTY... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM ATLANTA INDICATES SEVERAL VERY STRONG LONG LIVED ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES NOTED IN SRM VELOCITY DATA. AS OF 0245...THERE WERE SEVERAL MESOCYCLONES NOTED IN DATA FROM BUTTS COUNTY NWD THROUGH ROCKDALE COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ATLANTA SOUNDING WAS NOT AVAILABLE...BIRMINGHAM SOUNDING HAD AROUND 60 KT NELY FLOW OBSERVED AT ABOUT 500 M AGL AND VAD WIND DATA FROM LOCAL RADARS SUGGEST STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION...WITH GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OBSERVED AT MACON. GREATEST SHORT TERM THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED BETWEEN I-85 AND I-75. WATCH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF STORMS CONTINUE TO MAKE EWD PROGRESS...ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. ..TAYLOR.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX... 34408378 34008615 31928617 32398378 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 04:04:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 23:04:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507070415.j674FLro010466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070413 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070413 OKZ000-TXZ000-070545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1683 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615... VALID 070413Z - 070545Z COLD POOL IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NOW WITH STORMS MOVING SSEWD AT AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS THE TX PNHDL. TSTMS SHOULD FAVOR THE N-S ORIENTED INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED ACROSS THE SRN TX PNHDL INTO THE S PLAINS OF W TX AFTER 06Z. IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT THE STORMS TO REMAIN STRONG AS THEY MOVE SWD WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND LARGE HAIL. THE CORRIDOR FROM KCDS-KLBB SHOULD SEE THE STORMS BY 06Z...WITH LOCATIONS S OF THERE EXPERIENCING POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AFTER 06Z. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY TO INCLUDE THE TX S PLAINS. ..RACY.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 33930039 32550049 32090098 32060226 32380289 33900266 36480201 36499991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 05:37:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 00:37:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507070547.j675lmFX015567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070547 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070547 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-070615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1684 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA/WRN SC/SWRN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 614... VALID 070547Z - 070615Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN GA INTO WRN SC AND SWRN NC. REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATED LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH A COUPLE OF STORMS IN NERN GA...AND ALSO SWD INTO CENTRAL GA WITH THE LEADING CONVECTIVE BAND. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS T.D. CINDY IS PROGGED TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS NRN GA OVERNIGHT. 35-40 KT LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL/NRN GA ATTM IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EWD TOWARD WRN SC/SWRN NC BY 12Z. NELY SURFACE WINDS...ALTHOUGH WEAK... ACROSS WRN SC WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS THE LLJ NOSES INTO NRN GA/WRN SC OVERNIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL INHIBIT THE THREAT FOR HAIL...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH T.D. CINDY. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... 32298463 34368510 35168430 35388196 35038069 33818135 32758264 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 07:30:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 02:30:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507070740.j677ewsW028170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070740 TXZ000-NMZ000-070845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX INCLUDING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616... VALID 070740Z - 070845Z DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS WW 616. IF CURRENT TRENDS OF STORM INTENSITY/NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COLD POOL GENERATION CONTINUE...THEN A NEW WW WOULD BE REQUIRED ESE OF WW 616. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THREE MINI-BOW STRUCTURES /1.) EAST OF CDS...2.) EXTENDING FROM HALL TO NRN CROSBY COUNTIES...AND 3.) EXTENDING FROM SWISHER TO BAILEY COUNTIES/ TRACKING TO THE SE. THE BOW ECHO EXTENDING FROM HALL TO NRN CROSBY COUNTIES WAS THE STRONGEST GIVEN ITS SEWD MOVEMENT AT 35-40 KT. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN MOST LIKELY WITH COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOW...REACHING COTTLE TO STONEWALL COUNTIES BY 09Z. SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THESE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH INFLOW OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/SERN TX COMBINED WITH 35 KT OF NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER WRN TX IS RESULTING IN STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR FOR CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXTENDED ALONG A LINE FROM FOARD COUNTY TO 25 S LBB AND THEN WWD INTO SERN NM. 25-30 KT OF SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER WRN TX WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEW STRONG AND/OR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THESE ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE STRENGTHENING OF THE COLD POOL WITH THIS MCS. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34800321 34780017 34410001 34069964 33189950 32439977 32020015 32030306 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 08:54:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 03:54:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507070905.j67953Ed001527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070903 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-071000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1686 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0403 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616... VALID 070903Z - 071000Z WW 616 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10Z. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW 616 AND EAST OF THIS WW EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST WITH THE LEADING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...NOW EXTENDING FROM WICHITA COUNTY WSWWD TO LUBBOCK COUNTY. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO DECREASING...GIVEN WEAKENING TREND IN ONGOING STORMS. THUS...WW 616 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10Z...WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW DOWNSTREAM WW UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34060321 34270183 34840149 34739990 34329926 33969826 33509794 32919856 32539975 32040020 32060300 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 09:34:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 04:34:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507070945.j679jg1f018920@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070944 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-071115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1687 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA/UPSTATE SC/WRN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 617... VALID 070944Z - 071115Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAINS LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAVE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. AT 09Z...T.D. CINDY WAS LOCATED ABOUT 30 NW ATL WITH A CONTINUED TRACK TO THE NE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM CINDY ACROSS NRN GA...AND THEN NEWD ACROSS UPSTATE SC INTO WRN NC. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR REMAIN VERY STRONG ACROSS NERN GA INTO WRN NC...SUPPORTING A TORNADO THREAT. BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES RESULTING IN A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AREA WSR-88D VWP DATA CONTINUED TO INDICATE LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS DOWNSTREAM OF CINDY...WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES CLOSE TO 300 M2/S2 AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN LOW LEVEL ROTATION IN THE BAND OF STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SWRN PART OF WW 617. WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED...WITH THE GREATEST SHORT-TERM TORNADO LIKELIHOOD FROM NERN GA NEWD TO SWRN/WRN NC ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... 33478364 35048360 36248043 34648033 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 12:33:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 07:33:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507071243.j67ChvZs002575@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071243 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-071315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN GA INTO WRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SC/NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 617... VALID 071243Z - 071315Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON TO REPLACE VALID PORTION OF WW 617 AND EXTEND ENE INTO NC. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS COMBINED WITH SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTED THE CENTER OF T.D. CINDY WAS LOCATED OVER NRN GA /TO THE N OF ATL/ WITH A CONTINUED NEWD TRACK EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS FAR WRN NC. A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM CINDY TO WRN SC NEAR ANDERSON... AND THEN EXTENDED NEWD ALONG THE PIEDMONT REGION OF SC/NC INTO CENTRAL VA. AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS UNDER WAY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SC INTO PARTS OF NC...GENERALLY ALONG/E OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH 55 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS...SUPPORTING STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASING TREND IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER SC/NC. DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM OF CINDY INTO NC FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC... 33288174 33118236 33328310 34118287 34848284 35188303 35578215 36258112 36588025 36507891 36007858 34557954 33348087 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 14:23:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 09:23:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507071433.j67EXnut004389@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071433 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071433 TXZ000-071630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1689 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0933 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071433Z - 071630Z STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP ESEWD THROUGH E CNTRL TX. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS MORNING A SMALL MCS WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL TX JUST W OF THE DALLAS AREA. ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM DALLAS SWWD TO NEAR LLANO. ACTIVITY IS MOVING ESEWD AT AROUND 30 KT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV ACCOMPANYING THE MCS. VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WEAK AMBIENT FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...VWP DATA SUGGEST A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV OVER N CNTRL TX. MULTICELL CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DIAL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30929758 31359741 32039694 32749658 32489524 31189507 30489596 30519709 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 16:26:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 11:26:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507071637.j67Gaxst021139@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071633 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071633 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-071830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1690 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SC THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL NC AND SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 618... VALID 071633Z - 071830Z THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL EXPECTED FROM WRN/W CNTRL NC THROUGH SW VA NEXT FEW HOURS. LATE THIS MORNING A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF T.S. CINDY WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN NC AND IS MOVING SLOWLY NEWD. WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NCNTRL NC. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS WRN NC INTO SWRN VA JUST NE OF THE LOW CENTER ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FROM WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE BACKED TO ELY. THIS AXIS OF STRONG SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO N CNTRL NC AND S CNTRL VA. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WRN NC SWD THROUGH WRN SC. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH STORMS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE AS STORMS LIFT NWD AND INTERACT WITH THE ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SPREADING NWD THROUGH MUCH OF CNTRL NC E OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND. INCREASED SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP... 36938023 36587907 35638042 34798191 35368230 36368135 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 17:09:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 12:09:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507071720.j67HKawx016197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071718 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071717 NCZ000-VAZ000-071845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1691 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC THROUGH SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071717Z - 071845Z SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN NC THROUGH SERN VA THIS AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM SERN VA INTO NERN NC IN VICINITY OF A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...BUT WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES MAY IMPROVE FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS REMNANTS OF CINDY CONTINUE NEWD. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 36007536 36417664 37077826 35847797 35497546  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 18:52:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 13:52:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507071902.j67J2u2v019877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071902 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071901 SDZ000-WYZ000-072030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1692 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WY AND SD BLACK HILLS REGION / WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071901Z - 072030Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY...WITH A LESSER THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW MAY BE NEEDED NEXT COUPLE HOURS. TCU DEVELOPING OVER BLACK HILLS WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. MODIFIED RAP SOUNDING INDICATES CAPPING IS GONE...SUGGESTING STORMS MAY PERSIST AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. MORNING LBF SOUNDING INDICATES LARGER MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN RAP WITH 850 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 13C. GIVEN CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION...SURFACE HEATING...AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW SLOW STORM MOTIONS...WITH SPLITTING CELLS POSSIBLE. DECREASING SUB-CLOUD LAYER RH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL. ..JEWELL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR... 44560433 45430355 45490231 43100123 43060212 43110365 43680390 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 19:53:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 14:53:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507072003.j67K3nnM027636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072001 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-072200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1693 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...ERN NM AND THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072001Z - 072200Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH SERN CO AND ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND CO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IS DESTABILIZING WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. TENDENCY FOR UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD HAS RESULTED IN SOMEWHAT WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW WITH A MORE NLY COMPONENT AND MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. THEREFOR...STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-30 KT. MULTICELL STORMS STRUCTURES SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STORM TYPE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO. ..DIAL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 32750506 35180433 38450386 38160251 32830325  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 19:59:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 14:59:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507072010.j67KAMnc031958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072008 WYZ000-MTZ000-072215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1694 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SWRN MT / EXTREME NWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072008Z - 072215Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER SWRN MT AND NWRN WY. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SW AND CENTRAL MT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE LOWER 50S WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING AND 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS IN PLACE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. BILLINGS VWP INDICATES STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS AS WELL...SUGGESTING SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ..JEWELL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 45760751 43670705 43810757 44380899 45121164 45741185 46741081 47251044 47480999 47370906 47330851 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 20:37:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 15:37:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507072048.j67KmNNP022183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072047 VAZ000-NCZ000-072245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1695 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC THROUGH SERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 619... VALID 072047Z - 072245Z STORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED OVER WW 619. HOWEVER...THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD EVENING... ESPECIALLY OVER WRN PARTS OF 619. RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER NERN NC AND SERN VA. HOWEVER...PRIMARY RAINBAND ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF CINDY IS MOVING NEWD THROUGH W CNTRL NC AT 20-25 KT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 619 AFTER 23Z. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO SHIFT NEWD TOWARD E CNTRL NC THROUGH SRN VA AS THE REMNANTS OF CINDY CONTINUES NEWD. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF THE E-W BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NRN NC. ..DIAL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH... 36097781 36867848 37737819 36547689 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 21:51:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 16:51:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507072202.j67M2LQY000827@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072201 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-MDZ000-072300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC AND SRN/ERN VA AND PORTIONS OF SRN MD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 619...620... VALID 072201Z - 072300Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW OVER WRN NC WITH MAIN SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NEWD ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA. THETA-E AXIS EXTENDS NWD FROM NC TO ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOB 70F. A CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS VCNTY THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO SWRN VA AND THE BLACKSBURG VWP SHOWS 0-1KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXTENDS EWD ALONG THE MAIN WARM FRONT INTO SRN VA/NRN NC. TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS NC AND MOVE NEWD INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. MANY CELLS ARE EXHIBITING LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD FARTHER NEWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN VA AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS PARTS OF MD. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT WHERE THE REMNANTS OF CINDY MOVED OVER AL/GA. BUT...VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MAGNITUDE OF CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS N OF THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCHES. AS SUCH...MORE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED. ..RACY.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MHX... 36258117 37727857 35917861 34528111 37757848 36937548 35187554 36007846 36897953 37467849 37417767 37127708 36727705 36477746 36237822 35837926 36338000 38157862 38647814 39047767 38687701 38167682 37457718 37737869 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 22:37:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 17:37:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507072248.j67Mm8Nk023262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072247 NDZ000-080045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1697 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072247Z - 080045Z WE ARE MONITORING THE AREA FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. A WW WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXISTS AT THE SURFACE BUT STORMS HAVE NOT YET FORMED DESPITE LACK OF CIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC OA FIELDS SUGGEST SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAY BE COMING OUT CURRENTLY. THUS...STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOON WITHIN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. VWP AND PROFILER DATA SHOW ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VEERING LOW LEVELS AND ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..JEWELL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 47010330 49010290 49009921 47039952 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 23:38:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 18:38:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507072349.j67NnBxg019441@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072348 SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-080115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1698 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN ND / WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621... VALID 072348Z - 080115Z VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH HAIL AND AN OCCASIONAL DOWNBURST LIKELY. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY EVOLVE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...INCREASING CIN AND THE LACK OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..JEWELL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42990108 43000400 46960401 46970105 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 00:08:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 19:08:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507080019.j680JcEk000456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080018 KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-080115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1699 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM / WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622... VALID 080018Z - 080115Z ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOW OF EXISTING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN SELY 20-25 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND EXISTENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC AND NAM MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP ANY PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z AND 00Z AMA SOUNDING SHOWS CAP. THEREFORE...WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..JEWELL.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 33610476 37050427 37030203 33590267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 00:42:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 19:42:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507080052.j680qmUU015763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080051 NCZ000-VAZ000-080145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1700 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NC AND CNTRL ERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 619...620... VALID 080051Z - 080145Z TORNADO WATCHES 619/620 ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. WAKEFIELD VWP CONTINUES TO SHOW 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 230 M2/S2 VCNTY SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS EWD ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM WITHIN THIS ZONE AND EXHIBIT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO ERN VA AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH LATE EVENING AND ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED PENDING THE LONGEVITY OF THE CURRENT STORMS AND COORDINATION WITH LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. MEANWHILE...TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FRONTAL WAVE SWD INTO CNTRL NC HAS BEEN AIDING IN MORE LINEAR BAND OF STORMS FROM THE KRDU VCNTY SWD TO THE NC/SC BORDER AROUND ROCKINGHAM/HAMLET. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY MOVE EWD TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISOLD TORNADOES COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCATED FARTHER N IN VA. ..RACY.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 35058028 36537955 37257944 37777836 36917549 35227551 35917853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 02:47:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 21:47:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507080258.j682waSK006439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080256 NDZ000-080430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1701 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0956 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 623... VALID 080256Z - 080430Z ...THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND ISOLD TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL ND FROM JUST NW OF BISMARCK TO WEST OF DEVILS LAKE... STORMS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AFTER STORM INITIATION BEGAN A COUPLE HOURS AGO. NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS OBSERVED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS...WITH TOPS TO 62000 FEET. AIRMASS BECAME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KT OBSERVED FROM THE 00Z BISMARCK SOUNDING IN ADDITION TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30-35 KT / SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL TSTMS. STRONGEST STORM AS OF 0230Z IS NEAR MERCER COUNTY...ROUGHLY 40-50 MILES NW OF BIS. THIS STORM HAS A STRONG PERSISTENT MESOCYCLONE NOTED IN SRM VELOCITY NOW TRACKING INTO ECNTRL MERCER COUNTY...WITH RECENT REPORTS OF A TORNADO FROM SPOTTERS. LEFT SPLIT FROM PARENT SUPERCELL MOVED INTO WARD CO...AND WILL MOVE INTO MCHENRY CO SHORTLY...WITH THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. NRN STRONGER STORM IN BOTTINEAU CO RECENTLY HAD BASEBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED WITH IT. THREAT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A STRONG MCS. FOR NOW...TORNADO THREAT WILL BE PRESENT WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL OR WIND GUSTS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46809944 46750145 46860211 47840164 49010090 49039892 48199903  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 03:49:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 22:49:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507080400.j6840DbM000931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080356 MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-080530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL NC...SRN MD...ERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 624... VALID 080356Z - 080530Z BROAD FRONTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH SCNTRL VA WITH WARM CONVEYOR PCPN BAND FROM SRN MD TO ERN NC. HODOGRAPH BASED ON WAKEFIELD VWP CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CURVATURE WITH 0-1KM SHEAR AOA 30 KTS. THE WIND PROFILE HAS ALSO IMPROVED SOMEWHAT AS FAR NORTH AS STERLING. RADAR LOOPS SEEM TO SHOW A SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE CIRCULATION VCNTY KRIC AND THE STRONGER TSTMS SEEM TO BE FAVORING THIS FEATURE. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THESE STORMS MOVING UP THE ROUTE 360 CORRIDOR TOWARD SRN MD/MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC THROUGH 06Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN VA AND SRN MD THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE DECREASING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SCNTRL VA AS THE FLOW REGIME VEERS WITH TIME. ..RACY.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH... 35967896 38287741 38297526 35837707 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 04:08:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 23:08:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507080419.j684JRE2009115@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080415 NDZ000-080545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080415Z - 080545Z STRONGEST TSTMS OVER ND APPEAR TO BE FAVORING NRN PORTIONS OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 623 AND HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING SINCE 04Z. THE STORMS APPROACHING THE BISMARK VCNTY ALSO APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/LLJ AXIS SHOULD SHIFT/TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING A HIGHER RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL NORTH OF THE BORDER. FARTHER S...THE STORMS HAVE YET TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL AND DO NOT SEEM TO BE ACCELERATING TO THE E OR SE ATTM. NONETHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES DEPICT SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTMS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT OVER AT LEAST CNTRL ND THROUGH 07Z. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW INTENSE/SEVERE THE MCS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD INTO ERN ND. IF IT MAINTAINS INTENSITY...ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM. BUT ATTM...THE SHORT TERM SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE CONFINED WITHIN THE CURRENT WW. ..RACY.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46900176 48960109 49039852 48109730 46249807 46100077 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 17:44:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 12:44:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507081755.j68HtGZ7028149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081754 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081754 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-082000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI/NE IND AND NRN/CNTRL OH INTO NW PA/EXTREME WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081754Z - 082000Z ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NE IND AND NRN/CNTRL OH INTO NW PA/EXTREME WRN NY. A SEVERE WATCH SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED. 12Z UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS DEPICT COLD CORE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER FAR SRN ONTARIO/ERN GREAT LAKES...CHARACTERIZED BY -15/-16 C TEMPS AT 500 MB. ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING SWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI. GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION...AIRMASS IS ALREADY UNCAPPED ACROSS THE REGION BASED UPON MODIFIED 12Z DTX/BUF RAOBS. A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 2000 J/KG MUCAPE. IN SPITE OF MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /20 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OR LESS/ OWING TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW...COLD TEMPS ALOFT/DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT PULSE-TYPE ISOLD SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE OF SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... 43588292 42318212 42508076 42757911 41837894 40348053 39878227 40148460 40998545 41798555 43408439 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 18:45:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 13:45:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507081855.j68IthKZ030914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081854 FLZ000-082100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1705 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA KEYS/FAR SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081854Z - 082100Z WITH THREAT FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS/FAR SRN FL PENINSULA WITHIN THE HOUR. TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS/FAR SRN FL PENINSULA THE EVENING WITH APPROACH OF OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DENNIS. 18Z KEY WEST SOUNDING DEPICTS INCREASINGLY DEEP ELY FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SINCE THIS MORNING...WITH APPROX 15-20 KTS OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN 18Z EYW RAOB/KEY WEST WSR-88D VAD DATA. AMIDST A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE/SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... 26528232 26688186 26268011 25018008 24488100 24528219 25688214 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 19:41:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 14:41:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507081952.j68Jq1LO031261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081950 TXZ000-NMZ000-082145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN THROUGH FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081950Z - 082145Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IF THEY CAN DEVELOP EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND IF IT APPEARS STORMS MAY SURVIVE EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM THROUGH W TX. THE ATMOSPHERE E OF HIGHER TERRAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE CAPPED. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NM IS RESULTING IN WEAK MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT. AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WEAK DUE TO THE MODEST MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY AT 6 KM IS RESULTING IN 25 TO 30 KT DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE WEAK UPPER FLOW AND PRESENCE OF CAP SUGGEST STORMS MAY INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WITH TIME STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING FARTHER EWD AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ..DIAL.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 29590324 31580482 33270559 33930489 33050395 32030297 30630167 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 20:06:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 15:06:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507082017.j68KH8Me013911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082013 COR TXZ000-NMZ000-082145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM THROUGH FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082013Z - 082145Z CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IF THEY CAN DEVELOP EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND IF IT APPEARS STORMS MAY SURVIVE EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM THROUGH W TX. THE ATMOSPHERE E OF HIGHER TERRAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE CAPPED. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NM IS RESULTING IN WEAK MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT. AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WEAK DUE TO THE MODEST MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY AT 6 KM IS RESULTING IN 25 TO 30 KT DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE WEAK UPPER FLOW AND PRESENCE OF CAP SUGGEST STORMS MAY INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WITH TIME STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING FARTHER EWD AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ..DIAL.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 29590324 31580482 33270559 33930489 33050395 32030297 30630167  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 20:21:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 15:21:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507082031.j68KVkb0022821@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082029 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1707 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD EXTREME ERN WY AND NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082029Z - 082230Z THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SD AS WELL AS FARTHER SWD WITH STORMS SPREADING EWD OUT OF WY. THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THREAT SUGGESTS A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SD AND ERN WY AS CAP WEAKENS AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC FORCING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. HOWEVER...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY 15 KT AOA 4 KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 25 TO 30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY MULTICELL STORMS AND ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS... 42160441 44850377 44770277 43900251 42000339 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 00:15:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 19:15:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507090026.j690QOMB002830@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090025 FLZ000-090230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA KEYS/SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 625... VALID 090025Z - 090230Z TORNADO WATCH 625 CONTINUES UNTIL 09Z FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS/SRN FAR FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH MINI-SUPERCELL/ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL INCREASING REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. AS HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NW FROM WRN CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...OUTER BAND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS/ISOLD TORNADOES EXPECTED TO INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND SRN FL PENINSULA. MIAMI/KEY WEST WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES REFLECT A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL ELY FLOW SINCE THE AFTERNOON...WITH 50-65 KTS ALREADY EVIDENT IN 1-4 KM LAYER AS OF 00Z. IN CONJUNCTION WITH 00Z MFL /MIAMI/ AND EYW /KEY WEST/ RAOBS...0-1 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 625. ALTHOUGH VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA HAS ONLY SHOWN LIMITED INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION AS OF EARLY EVENING...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR/CONFLUENCE WITHIN OUTER BANDS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION/ISOLD TORNADOES REMAINDER OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR TRENDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR NECESSITY OF NORTHWARD EXPANSION/REISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN FL PENINSULA. ..GUYER.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... 25057999 24428091 24368203 25388235 26378258 26818226 26878162 26167962 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 15:40:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 10:40:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507091551.j69FpUrm019670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091550 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091550 FLZ000-091745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1709 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 627... VALID 091550Z - 091745Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA. THE GREATEST THREAT NEXT FEW HOURS APPEARS TO BE OVER SRN AND CNTRL FL...BUT THE GREATER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATE THIS MORNING THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED ABOUT 160 MI OFF THE S FL COAST AND IS MOVING NWWD AT AROUND 12 KT. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR MORE INFORMATION ON DENNIS. OUTER RAINBANDS FROM DENNIS ARE LIFTING NWD THROUGH SRN AND S CNTRL FL AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO CNTRL FL THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS NE OF THE CENTER OVER MUCH OF SRN FL WITH ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING AND INCREASING TO 50+ KT THROUGH 1 KM. SATELLITE DATA IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS BETWEEN THE BANDS WHICH WILL AID IN SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. STORMS MAY THEREFORE UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... 24748114 25918164 27218256 27958257 28008176 25817982 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 16:11:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 11:11:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507091621.j69GLj13001220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091621 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091620 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-091815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1710 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...CNTRL AND ERN PA THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091620Z - 091815Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN NY THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN PA AND NRN AND CNTRL NJ. ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW. THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NY DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS FEATURE. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 6 KM FROM -14 TO -16 C IN VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM NWRN PA THROUGH SRN NY...AND ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD TOWARD THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY AND GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR HAIL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41847754 41837590 41787356 40747367 39827462 39897708 40737800 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 19:57:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 14:57:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507092008.j69K8RBH002455@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092007 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-092200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S CNTRL MT AND A SMALL PART OF ERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092007Z - 092200Z ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL MT MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT WHERE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED IN VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM AN EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HEATING IS PROMOTING DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER SWRN-SCNTRL MT WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. A BAND OF 50+ KT MID LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE 40+ KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR... SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE STORMS WITH INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION MAY ALSO AUGMENT THE THREAT FOR HAIL. WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND TENDENCY FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO MIX OUT WITH TIME MAY SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS. ..DIAL.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 46700839 46321133 44441356 44121255 44881088 45080944 45110703 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 20:10:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 15:10:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507092021.j69KLCdP007252@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092020 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-092145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1712 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092020Z - 092145Z ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NM AND SERN CO. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM/SERN CO. WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY THESE STORMS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WELL MIXED AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IS PRESENT ACROSS THE PLAINS AREA...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE AROUND 50F. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST. ..IMY.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... 33000559 34840572 36800504 37960433 37810292 35980281 33460439 32840495 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 20:32:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 15:32:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507092043.j69KhU60017084@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092042 NDZ000-MTZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT AND EXTREME WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092042Z - 092245Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER S CNTRL MT THIS AFTERNOON THEN NEWD THROUGH ERN MT AND PARTS OF WRN ND THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN MT SWWD INTO SERN AND S CNTRL MT JUST N OF BILLINGS. SRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING SWD WHILE THE NRN PORTION CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD THROUGH ERN MT. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S N OF THE FRONT...AND AS THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES SWD...MOIST NLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER S CNTRL MT. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING UPSLOPE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S CNTRL MT. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS PROMOTING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. FARTHER NE ACROSS ERN MT THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR REMAINS CAPPED...BUT THE CAP SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR EXCEED 100F. THE WEAKENING CAP AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT OVER ERN MT DURING THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO WRN ND. ..DIAL.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 46800793 47420624 48810499 48950403 48350363 47010423 45860548 45250726 45940915 46420914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 20:45:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 15:45:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507092056.j69KuFXU022490@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092054 TXZ000-092230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1714 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CAPROCK VICINITY OF NW TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 092054Z - 092230Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/PULSE-TYPE SEVERE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...INVOF CAPROCK REGION OF NW TEXAS REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. REMNANT MCV EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SOUTH OF AMARILLO TO LUBBOCK IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS NW TX AT THIS TIME. OWING TO AMPLE INSOLATION AND LOW/MID 90S F SFC TEMPS...DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS INVOF CAPROCK HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CU FIELD DEEPENING OVER THE PAST HOUR. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH. IN SPITE OF AMPLE INSTABILITY...JAYTON TX PROFILER DEPICTS RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /15 KTS 0-6 KM/. A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/PULSE-TYPE SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN WEAK SHEAR/SLOW STORM MOTIONS. ..GUYER.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 35310112 35340024 34300001 32259945 32009995 32470083 32680126 33130156 33430154 34520127 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 21:59:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 16:59:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507092209.j69M9ctx018353@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092208 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-100015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1715 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW SD INTO WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092208Z - 100015Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SURFACE HEATING APPEAR TO HAVE BECOME MAXIMIZED EAST OF THERMAL LOW. ONGOING ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BASED IN HOT...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE DEW POINTS SPREADS. HOWEVER...PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSE ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...ACTIVITY WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE. SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE IN THE 70S...CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SHEAR PROFILES MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW... 45890372 47080409 48290353 48770226 48110135 46510145 45310134 44600325 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 22:04:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 17:04:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507092214.j69MEhtd020077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092213 FLZ000-100015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 628... VALID 092213Z - 100015Z TORNADO WATCH 628 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...WITH MINI-SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL LIKELY INCREASING THIS EVENING. HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NW/RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH OUTER BANDS EXTENDING INTO MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA/KEYS. AS OF 2215Z/615 PM EDT...VOLUMETRIC RADAR/SATELLITE DATA IN CONJUCTION WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR SHOW A DISTINCT CHARACTER CHANGE/INTENSIFICATION OF OUTER BAND CONVECTION ARCING SE-NW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...ROUGHLY ALONG A VERO BEACH-ORLANDO TO WEST OF OCALA/GAINESVILLE CORRIDOR. THIS IS LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE HURRICANE...AS WELL AS INCREASE IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION INTO THE E/NE PERIPHERY OF DENNIS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS/ISOLD TORNADOES PER WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES...WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS /OR GREATER/ MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA. GIVEN 03Z EXPIRATION...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REISSUED LATER THIS EVENING. BEFORE THEN...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY NECESSARY NWD EXPANSION/REORIENTATION OF TORNADO WATCH. ..GUYER.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX...TAE... 30048486 30698435 30458277 29118175 27048097 25388036 24648068 24568147 27468308 29298393 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 16:59:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 11:59:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507101709.j6AH9nEc002108@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101708 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101708 FLZ000-GAZ000-101815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL AND NWRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 631... VALID 101708Z - 101815Z TORNADO WATCH 631 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH BEFORE 18Z THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR TAMPA NWD THROUGH MUCH OF NRN FL AND INTO SERN GA. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HURRICANE DENNIS WAS NEARING LANDFALL NEAR THE EXTREME WRN FL PANHANDLE. SEE LATEST DISCUSSION FROM NHC ON DENNIS. OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS CONTINUE LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN FL PENINSULA. LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW SOME EMBEDDED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITHIN THESE BANDS ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE...BUT WITH TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INLAND. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DRYER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE OUTER SERN QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE AND INTO THE NERN GULF. THIS MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING AND SOME INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. TORNADO THREAT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NWD AS DENNIS CONTINUES INLAND ON A NNWWD TRACK. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX... 31928155 28618171 28058262 28658284 31558285 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 17:38:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 12:38:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507101749.j6AHnQfW018098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101748 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101748 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-101845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1718 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN AL...MUCH OF THE FL PANHANDLE...W CNTRL THROUGH SWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 630... VALID 101748Z - 101845Z TORNADO WATCH 630 WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH BEFORE 19Z THAT WILL INCLUDE THE FL PANHANDLE...CNTRL AND SRN AL THROUGH W CNTRL AND SW GA. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NWD FARTHER INTO AL AND GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HURRICANE DENNIS MOVES INLAND ON A NNWWD TRACK. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC ON DENNIS. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS TYPICALLY WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS. CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST RAINBANDS WITH SOME DISCRETE STORM STRUCTURES EXIST E OF THE CENTER AND ARE LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE ERN FL PANHANDLE. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INLAND AWAY FROM THE WARM GULF WATERS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME DRY AIR SPREADING NWD THROUGH THE NERN GULF...AND THIS MIGHT ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL AND SWRN GA. OTHERWISE... WIDESPREAD STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WILL PERSIST N AND E OF THE CENTER...EXPANDING NWD AS DENNIS MOVES INLAND. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30008388 29928512 30468651 30368812 32598827 33488718 32688342 30898310 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 20:16:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 15:16:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507102026.j6AKQhZr024755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102025 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-102230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1719 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE MT/FAR NE WY INTO WRN ND/WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102025Z - 102230Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FROM FAR ERN MT/NE WY INTO THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS...A SEVERE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS LEADING EDGE OF DYNAMIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SPREADING ENE ACROSS ERN MT/NCNTRL WY AT THIS TIME. AS THIS FEATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SE MT/NE WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. GIVEN APPROACHING IMPULSE AND WARM SECTOR CAPPING INVERSION/STRONG CINH EAST OF WCNTRL DAKOTAS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INITIAL/PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED INVOF AND WEST OF SFC REFLECTION OF FRONT ACROSS WRN/WCNTRL ND AND WRN SD. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ALREADY FEATURES INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SW SD INVOF BLACK HILLS...WITH CU FIELD SLOWLY EVOLVING NEWD INTO NCNTRL ND. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS/RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE WITHIN RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIRMASS ALONG/JUST WEST OF SFC FRONT. STRONGEST EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS POST-FRONTAL PER WSR-88D VAD PROFILES/RUC SOUNDINGS...RANGING FROM 25-30 KTS INVOF SFC FRONT TO GREATER THAN 40 KTS ACROSS THE FAR WRN ND/NW SD. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A SEVERE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GUYER.. 07/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 49060282 49090127 48959954 47159985 44610053 43270172 43180300 44170575 45750555 48280329 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 20:48:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 15:48:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507102059.j6AKxWVC005259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102057 TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1720 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE CO/ERN NM/SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102057Z - 102300Z ISOLD SEVERE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE CO/ERN NM INTO SW TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE/SPREAD SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR SE CO/ERN NM REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE ERN NM PLAINS INTO SW TX. IN ADDITION TO THE DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OTHER ISOLD TSTMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR INVOF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/TRANSPECOS REGION NEAR MIDLAND. ALTHOUGH ONLY MODEST W/NW FLOW IS PRESENT IN MID LEVELS...MODERATE S/SE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS PER TUCUMCARI NM PROFILER/RUC SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS. ISOLD NATURE OF SCENARIO SUGGESTS A SEVERE WATCH IS UNLIKELY. ..GUYER.. 07/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... 37310382 37360241 35310269 33840275 32730263 32530072 31130069 30170263 31170477 33150547 35250517 37300434  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 22:13:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 17:13:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507102223.j6AMNwtH006298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102222 SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-FLZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-110015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...AL...GA ...NE MS...SRN TN...WRN NC AND SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 632...633... VALID 102222Z - 110015Z RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING... TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WW TO THE NORTH OF 632 AND 633. STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS IS NOW INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTH/NORTHEAST OF MOBILE. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST IS VERY MOIST/NEAR SATURATED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR OR ABOVE 70F. THUS...EVEN WITH WEAKENING LIKELY AS SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING...LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN BROAD SWATH ON ITS NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY. TORNADO THREAT MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AS RISK GRADUALLY INCREASES NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. ..KERR.. 07/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 34918879 35058803 35258671 35128435 35378326 35158212 34138160 33398157 32468128 31398209 30618307 30528478 31628606 32008783 32508880 33168937 33738964 34308934 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 23:16:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 18:16:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507102326.j6ANQdZe029543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102324 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-110130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE/FAR NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102324Z - 110130Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS/PULSE-TYPE LARGE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ON SRN PERIPHERY OF NRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...IN PRESENCE OF HOT/WELL-MIXED AIRMASS...TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OF SE WY/NEB PANHANDLE INTO FAR NE CO. AMBIENT AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS/MODIFIED 12Z LBF RAOB SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME NE CO. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WLYS ARE WEAK...SELY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE CONTRIBUTING TO VERTICAL SHEAR PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KTS. DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS WITH DCAPE OF 1200-1500 J/KG SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/ISOLD DAMAGING GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PULSE-TYPE LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. LARGELY DIURNALLY ENHANCED...THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AROUND/SOON AFTER SUNSET. ..GUYER.. 07/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42830328 42850162 42010128 40050234 39980304 41160412 41740428 42610430 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 00:44:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 19:44:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507110055.j6B0tT95028591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110054 NDZ000-SDZ000-110230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1723 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND AND CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634... VALID 110054Z - 110230Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 634 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS/ISOLD SUPERCELLS -- WITH ONLY LIMITED E/NE MOVEMENT -- CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANGLING NNE-SSW ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. AMBIENT AIRMASS INVOF/AHEAD OF THE STORMS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE...HIGHLIGHTED BY EXTREME 5000 J/KG MUCAPE OBSERVED IN 00Z BISMARK RAOB. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO/MAXIMIZED WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH CONTINUAL QUICK EVOLUTION OF LINEAR SEGMENTS EXPECTED. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET /40 KTS/ ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS DURING THE 03Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. THIS INCREASING LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME AND DEVELOPMENT OF MESOSCALE COLD POOLS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A GRADUAL EWD EXPANSION OF ACTIVITY THROUGH REMAINDER OF WW 634 INTO ERN ND/THROUGH CNTRL SD. ..GUYER.. 07/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 48470066 48929937 48859809 48059792 47199807 46179871 44969902 44329929 43230010 43290120 44130159 46170127 47130129 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 02:59:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 21:59:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507110310.j6B3AMFY017514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110308 GAZ000-ALZ000-110415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AL/GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 632...633... VALID 110308Z - 110415Z PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. AN ISOLATED TORNADO TONIGHT IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT RISK APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OF DENNIS...NOW SOUTHWEST OF SELMA AL...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD TREK ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NEAR CIRCULATION ARE STILL LARGE...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS POSSIBLE MITIGATING EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH...GIVEN NEAR SATURATED/MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES THROUGH THE MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERE...IS MINIMIZING BUOYANCY OF BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS. IT SEEMS ANY APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON RETURN OF MID/UPPER 70S DEW POINTS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW. THIS COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LOW...NORTH OF MONTGOMERY THROUGH THE BIRMINGHAM/TUSCALOOSA AREAS...WHERE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE. HOWEVER...PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING MAY BE TOO LOW TO CONTINUE A TORNADO WATCH. ..KERR.. 07/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB... 34088770 34028654 33508569 33058503 31968562 31978641 32368724 33468825 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 03:42:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 22:42:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507110353.j6B3rEwi001693@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110351 NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-110515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634... VALID 110351Z - 110515Z POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS/HAIL MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND WW EXPIRATION ...BUT NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BROKEN LINE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION...IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR NORTHERN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...HAS BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES... AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...INFLUENCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND STRENGTHENING INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS ALREADY APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO DIMINISHING TRENDS TO ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. STORMS ARE SLOWER TO DIMINISH WHERE LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS STRONGEST...NORTH NORTHEAST OF WEAKENING...ELONGATED SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BY 06Z...MOST INTENSE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST/NORTHWEST OF GRAND FORKS...BEFORE DIMINISHING/ DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ..KERR.. 07/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS... 48939751 47709817 45799888 44349913 43080009 41940065 40950172 41540297 42860280 43750196 44770083 46350107 47320102 49030037 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 15:04:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 10:04:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507111515.j6BFF3hX020076@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111514 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111513 SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-111615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN AL/CENTRAL AND NRN GA/UPSTATE SC/FAR SWRN NC/SRN AND SERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111513Z - 111615Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN GA/FAR ERN AL AND NWD TO UPSTATE SC TO PARTS OF SRN-SERN TN. A WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS OVER FAR NERN MS ALONG THE TN BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS SRN TN INTO FAR WRN NC. SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS/ZONES OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDED SEWD FROM THE CENTER OF DENNIS ACROSS SRN/SERN TN INTO ERN GA AND SWD JUST E OF THE AL/GA BORDER. SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN...WHERE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. AREA VWPS PER WSR-88DS SHOW STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS FROM CENTRAL/NRN GA INTO TN WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 300 M2/S2...SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL ROTATION... ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND WARM FRONT. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS ERN AL INTO WRN/NRN GA AND MIDDLE/ERN TN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 07/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN... 35938424 35758322 35338235 34648183 33568210 32278280 31598383 31448476 31998532 32918550 34338579 35998682 36098539 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 18:52:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 13:52:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507111902.j6BJ2f9W012134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111900 MEZ000-112030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1727 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111900Z - 112030Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SSW ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN ME THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN ISOLATED THREAT AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...WW IS NOT EXPECTED. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ORIENTED NEARLY N-S ALONG THE ERN ME/CANADIAN BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT/COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE EXTENT OF THE ME COAST. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SWD OVER NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ME IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS OVER ME IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED...BUT A 50 KT NNWLY SPEED MAX WITH THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT BOTH LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. THUS...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..PETERS.. 07/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 43527008 44766991 45896908 46126783 45596741 44816694 44436736 43986889 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 19:15:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 14:15:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507111926.j6BJQWTr028144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111924 MNZ000-NDZ000-112130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1728 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111924Z - 112130Z ISOLD SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW/NCNTRL MN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WATCH. ON GLANCING INFLUENCE OF MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO SHORTWAVE TROUGH...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW/NCNTRL MN. AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...AMPLE INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL THROUGH THE 80S/LOWER 90S F...AMIDST MOIST UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS. MODIFIED 12Z INTERNATIONAL FALLS/ABERDEEN RAOBS IN CONJUNCTION WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS AIRMASS IS NOW RELATIVELY UNCAPPED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /20-25 KTS/ LARGELY ORIENTED WITH THE COLD FRONT...STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS RATHER QUICKLY AS THEY PROGRESS NEWD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. ..GUYER.. 07/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 47889714 48929702 49109590 49079475 48479310 46679392 46699466 46509503 46799699  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 20:25:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 15:25:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507112036.j6BKaWlq008048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112034 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-112230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE/ECNTRL CO AND SE WY/WRN NEB/FAR NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112034Z - 112230Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF FRONT RANGE/HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD SSEWD REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SWD ACROSS WRN NEB AND FAR SE WY/FAR NE CO...INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SUPPORT EXPANDING TSTM COVERAGE FROM THE SE WY/CO FRONT RANGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN NEB REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AMBIENT AIRMASS IS NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS/LATEST MESOANALYSIS...WITH AS MUCH AS 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN MODEST NWLY FLOW PRESENT ALOFT...ELY COMPONENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH POSSIBILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..GUYER.. 07/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 41150532 41960516 43150484 43640292 41660203 39840184 39200269 38800336 38840470 39500511  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 20:51:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 15:51:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507112101.j6BL1oDW024127@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112058 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-112230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL/SW MN INTO FAR NW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112058Z - 112230Z AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WCNTRL/SW MN INTO FAR NW IA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR NECESSITY OF SEVERE WATCH. TSTMS DEVELOPING INVOF NNE-SSW ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH FAR WRN MN/FAR NW IA. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMBIENT AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ORIENTED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT. WOOD LAKE MN PROFILER AND SIOUX FALLS WSR-88D VWP SUGGEST ONLY 20-25 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW. NEVERTHELESS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 07/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR... 46159590 46219412 44789406 42539538 41949671 42339692 43579661  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 00:24:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 19:24:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507120035.j6C0ZXgO002138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120033 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-120230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0733 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB/ERN CO/WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 635... VALID 120033Z - 120230Z CONTINUE WW. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STORMS SEEM TO BE FORMING PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IS SUPPORTING A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH 25-30 KT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS LIMITED MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER...CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION INTO AT LEAST A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON NOSE OF 25-30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK /BY 02-03Z/. IF THIS OCCURS...ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME... EAST OF SOUTHWESTERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS IN LOWER LEVELS PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND SURFACE COLD POOL EVOLUTION WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUING RISK OF LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 07/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38700423 39750402 41720349 43170309 43200034 38730158  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 17:12:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 12:12:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507121723.j6CHNTiC022699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121720 MSZ000-ARZ000-121845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN AND SERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121720Z - 121845Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS DEVELOPING AND TRACKING TO THE ESE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN INTO SERN AR THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN AR...WITH THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE ESE INTO SERN AR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED SWWD FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF DENNIS ACROSS AR FROM NE-SW AND THEN WWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE IN THE 70S WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL MAINTAIN THIS INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS HEATING WILL SUPPORT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AIDING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS TO THE ESE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SERN AR...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP. ..PETERS.. 07/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 34809358 34919251 34629078 33549110 33619256 34009400  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 17:34:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 12:34:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507121744.j6CHibnM002979@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121744 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121743 OKZ000-KSZ000-122015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1733 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS AND NCENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121743Z - 122015Z CLUSTER OF STG STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ASSOCIATED WITH A SWD MOVING MCV FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS IN NEB MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE SWD AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS SCENTRAL KS AND EVENTUALLY NCENTRAL OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STG STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS /ELLSWORTH AND SALINE COUNTIES/ HAS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED A SMALL COLD POOL. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE KSN WEATHERLAB WHICH INDICATED 40 MPH NLY WINDS RECENTLY AT ELLSWORTH HIGH SCHOOL WITH A TEMP AROUND 71 F WHILE LINCOLN JR/SR HIGH INDICATED SLY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH WITH TEMP AROUND 72 F. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GUST FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM INITIAL STG STORMS. GIVEN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 20-25 KT NLY FLOW THROUGH THE 850-500 MB LAYER AND LITTLE IF ANY SLY COMPONENT IN THE NEAR SFC LAYER...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO KEEP CONVECTION SUSTAINING ITSELF ALONG 25 KT SWD MOVING GUST FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SCENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED. HOWEVER...WITH A SMALL COLD POOL BEGINNING TO BE ESTABLISHED...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GUST FRONT FOR NEW CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AND GRADUALLY INCREASING /ALBEIT MARGINAL/ SVR WIND THREAT SWD INTO SCENTRAL KS AND EVENTUALLY NCENTRAL OK...ESPECIALLY IF INDIVIDUAL ISOLATED CELLS MERGE WITH THE GUST FRONT. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH MID LEVEL DRY POCKET PER 12Z UA ANALYSIS/SOUNDINGS AND 2000-2500 MLCAPE AXIS EXTENDING N-S FROM SCENTRAL KS INTO NCENTRAL OK. ..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38849769 38779840 37999866 36739857 36299849 36139837 36049709 36509648 38069670 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 17:58:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 12:58:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507121809.j6CI9VVE019090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121808 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-122015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PARTS OF MS/AL INTO NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 121808Z - 122015Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL MS/AL INTO NRN GA. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1.5-2 INCHES PER HOUR... WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE SRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE REMNANT FLOW REGIME OF DENNIS FROM AR TO TN TO ERN KY/OH. SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NERN GA SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AL INTO CENTRAL MS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S. GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP 20-25 KT WSWLY WINDS...STORM MODE WILL BE LINEAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATES WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT...WITH PRE-EXISTING MOISTURE LADEN SOIL CONDITIONS SUGGESTING A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR THESE GUSTS TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. HIGH PW VALUES /1.75 TO 2 INCH/ PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. ..PETERS.. 07/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN... 34668407 34968341 34258278 33148389 32258622 31978840 32208950 32588963 33188704 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 18:14:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 13:14:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507121825.j6CIPHPG029547@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121823 NYZ000-122030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN...CENTRAL AND ERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121823Z - 122030Z ISOLATED DMGG WINDS GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY MOVE GENERALLY SWWD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO CANADA JUST NORTH OF U.S BORDER. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDED SE FROM THIS LOW INTO SERN NY. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY WARM/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AXIS WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...REGION REMAINS ON THE WLY FRINGE OF MODERATE NLY FLOW ALOFT AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR HAIL AS WELL. UNLESS CONVECTION CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH STORM SCALE PROCESSES...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 44797441 43927371 42327365 41797393 41877475 42197558 42177619 42997616 44267594  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 20:00:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 15:00:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507122011.j6CKBF6f001689@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122010 COZ000-NMZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122010Z - 122215Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL SFC BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OF THE MORE WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER NRN EL PASO COUNTY NEWD TO JUST WEST OF AKRON. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOW IT/S WWD ADVANCEMENT AND LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A PRE-EXISTING PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE SFC LOW. THIS SHOULD AID IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED TSTM INITIATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DEN METRO AREA BY 22Z. AN ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SERN CO MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS FROM THE RATON RIDGE NEWD TO NEAR LA JUNTA. A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISO DMGG WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...NLY FLOW AROUND 25-30 KTS AS OBSERVED BY PROFILER/VWP DATA BENEATH SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ISOLATED SVR HAIL AS WELL. UNLESS BETTER ORGANIZATION BECOMES EVIDENT...OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT ANTICIPATED WILL PRECLUDE A WW. ..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 40660325 39900479 39000540 38000515 37160453 36980313 37750237 39700226 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 17:27:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 12:27:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507131737.j6DHbsQs010212@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131735 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131735 SCZ000-GAZ000-131900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA / SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131735Z - 131900Z ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN GA INTO MUCH OF SC THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NERN GA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING THIS FEATURE CONTINUING TO TRACK SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO SC. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN AIR MASS THAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK /WSWLY AOB 20 KT/...BUT GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...STORMS WILL TEND TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS ALREADY INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADARS. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE VERY MOIST /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS...WITH ANY COLD POOL GENERATION ENHANCING THIS THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 33778289 34708269 34918209 34798108 34568016 33937914 33417908 32707999 32258079 31838137 32408240 32868285  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 17:44:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 12:44:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507131755.j6DHtCS2022320@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131754 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131754 NCZ000-132030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 131754Z - 132030Z ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES WSWWD AROUND 10-15 KTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HRLY RATES FROM 1-2 IN. WILL BE POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS SERN NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HALIFAX SWD INTO CATARET COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WSWWD AROUND 10 KTS ACROSS ERN NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SUPPORTED BY A STG CONVECTION AND A MODEST COLD POOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S OVER THE SRN OUTER BANKS REGION. FARTHER WEST...ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN AN INCREASING WAA REGIME AHEAD OF CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA CONVECTIVE LINE...EVIDENT BY RECENT CAE VWP AND SFC ANALYSIS. AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WSWWD INTO SERN NC... EXPECT BOUNDARY/ISOLATED CELL COLLISIONS TO ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS 10 KT ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH 20 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THUS UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DMGG MICROBURSTS WITH CELL/BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. ALSO...AS CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SC MOVES ENEWD AROUND 20 KTS...IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF FAR SERN NC AFTER 20Z...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWWD AND ENHANCE THE STRONG/ISO DMGG WIND THREAT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME OVER. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR THREAT...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND TRAINING CELLS EAST OF THE GUST FRONT AND LINE MERGERS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT HRLY RAINFALL RATES ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR. ..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 35277671 36327744 36297810 35287878 34757906 34387905 33897858 33867803 34507742 34717658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 17:49:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 12:49:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507131759.j6DHxdxZ025190@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131757 NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-131900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY AND VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131757Z - 131900Z THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NY AND VT WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED. MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE WW. COMPLEX OF ELEVATED STORMS BETWEEN ART AND PBG HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED AS DOWNDRAFTS HAVE CONGEALED AND STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LATER. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS HAVE RESULTED IN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THAT STRETCHED FROM NEAR PBG TO UCA AND SYR. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL STORMS WITH SOME HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. STRONGER FORCING WILL REMAIN ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WHETHER THE COVERAGE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW. ..IMY.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43247633 43487507 44037389 45167308 44877172 43357231 42147469 42417562  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 17:51:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 12:51:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507131801.j6DI1cYM026746@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131800 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131759 COR NCZ000-132030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 131759Z - 132030Z CORRECTED FOR END OF MIDDLE PARAGRAPH ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES WSWWD AROUND 10-15 KTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HRLY RATES FROM 1-2 IN. WILL BE POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS SERN NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HALIFAX SWD INTO CATARET COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WSWWD AROUND 10 KTS ACROSS ERN NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SUPPORTED BY A STG CONVECTION AND A MODEST COLD POOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S OVER THE SRN OUTER BANKS REGION. FARTHER WEST...ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN AN INCREASING WAA REGIME AHEAD OF CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA CONVECTIVE LINE...EVIDENT BY RECENT CAE VWP AND SFC ANALYSIS. AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WSWWD INTO SERN NC... EXPECT BOUNDARY/ISOLATED CELL COLLISIONS TO ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS 10 KT ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH 20 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THUS UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DMGG MICROBURSTS WITH CELL/BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. ALSO...AS CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SC MOVES ENEWD AROUND 20 KTS...IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF FAR SERN NC AFTER 20Z...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWWD AND ENHANCE THE STRONG/ISO DMGG WIND THREAT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME OVER SERN NC. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR THREAT...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND TRAINING CELLS EAST OF THE GUST FRONT AND LINE MERGERS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT HRLY RAINFALL RATES ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR. ..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 35277671 36327744 36297810 35287878 34757906 34387905 33897858 33867803 34507742 34717658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 18:19:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 13:19:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507131830.j6DIUEu5012846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131827 VAZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-NYZ000-132000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN PA AND NRN VA/MD AND WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 131827Z - 132000Z ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN PA SWD INTO NRN VA/MD AND WV PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. AT 18Z...A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR FKL TO CHO. NUMEROUS STORMS HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THESE STORMS...WITH WEAK...BUT DEEP SLY FLOW LOCATED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS... WHICH MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE GREATER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINS GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...P/WS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. ALSO STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NWD AND SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE TRAINING OF STORMS FOR AN HOUR OR MORE. ..IMY.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE... 38217858 39257937 41378023 42138001 42047944 40487829 39507789 38407756 38207776  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 18:28:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 13:28:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507131839.j6DIdQ0h019178@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131837 MTZ000-132100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131837Z - 132100Z ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NCENTRAL MT MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BNDRY LAYER AND BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES INTO NERN MT IN THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 21Z. RECENT TRENDS IN NLDN SHOWS INCREASING AMT OF COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING OVER NCENTRAL MT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BNDRY LAYER. DESPITE TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOWER-MID 90S OVER NERN MT WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S...RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT AROUND 100-150 J/KG OF MLCINH REMAINED AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEG F BEFORE CINH BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME ROOTED. HOWEVER...ENOUGH STORM SCALE EFFECTS MAY OCCUR TO OFFSET THE CINH AND AID IN QUICKER BOUNDARY LAYER ROOTING OF THE CONVECTION. GIVEN VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER UP TO 650 MB ALONG WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ABOVE THIS LAYER...AND 30-35 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW...AT LEAST ISOLATED DMGG WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE. GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED TO AOB 35 KTS. UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL BE LIMITED AND MORE MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR STORM MODE CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL LATER WHEN STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THUS ISOLATED DMGG WINDS APPEAR THE MOST LIKELY THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX... 49030737 48560849 47700927 47120911 46980722 47110447 48930407 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 19:33:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 14:33:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507131943.j6DJhsiP029986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131940 MTZ000-IDZ000-132215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL MT AND CENTRAL MTNS OF ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131940Z - 132215Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS OF ID INTO SWRN MT BY 22Z. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED INTO SCENTRAL/CENTRAL MT AND THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 21Z. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO NEWD INTO SWRN MT AND OVER THE BEARTOOTH MTNS. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND ONLY 25-50 J/KG OF MLCINH REMAINING AS LOWER 50S DEWPTS HAVE REMAINED DESPITE DEEP MIXING. GIVEN MODERATE MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH 50-55 KTS OF FLOW AT 4 KM...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AOA 40 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN RELATIVELY SMALL AND NARROW AXIS OVER CENTRAL ID/SWRN MT...A WW FOR THIS AREA IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...AS STG-ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION MOVES/DEVELOPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SWRN MT AND EVENTUALLY INTO SCENTRAL/CENTRAL MT AFTER 21Z...GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG/ AND GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF SVR THREAT SUGGESTS THAT A WW IS POSSIBLE BY 21Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 45351038 45011139 44631266 44101400 44911447 46171326 46751245 47711091 47690942 46530842 45740910  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 21:08:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 16:08:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507132119.j6DLJWBx024503@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132118 PAZ000-140015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0418 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 132118Z - 140015Z TSTM LINES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL/SCENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DMGG WINDS. OVERALL THE SVR THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER ECENTRAL PA WILL MOVE SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN PA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AROUND 10 KTS...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG/ AND WEAKLY ORGANIZED NATURE OF CONVECTIVE LINE. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS OVER NRN VA/WV HAS DEVELOPED A WEAK COLD POOL AND THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS SHOULD MOVE NWD INTO SCENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY THE OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MERGE OVER CENTRAL/SCENTRAL PA /TO THE SOUTH OF UNV/ AROUND 01Z...WITH HVY RAIN THE DOMINANT THREAT OVER THIS AREA GIVEN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW/S AROUND 1.7 INCHES. ..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP... 41257673 40957837 40477864 40097856 39837816 39847772 39907694 40087614 40487576 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 22:01:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 17:01:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507132211.j6DMBvKv023457@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132210 GAZ000-140115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN GA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS....HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 132210Z - 140115Z CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL MERGE WITH ONGOING ISOLATED CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER ECENTRAL/SERN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE SVR THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SAVANNAH NWWD TO JEFFERSON AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SC. CONVECTIVE LINE OVER CENTRAL GA WAS MOVING EWD AROUND 25 KTS...AND IS SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG/ DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY...IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WINDS AS IT MOVES INTO ECENTRAL/SERN GA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AS THIS CONVECTIVE LINE MERGES WITH ISOLATED TSTMS AND/OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY MODEST ELY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE OUTFLOW/SEE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...STORM MOTIONS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH AS MERGERS OCCUR AND HVY RAINFALL WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR. ..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 32278119 33168197 33008277 31828255 31688149 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 23:11:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 18:11:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507132322.j6DNM59E020614@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132321 MTZ000-140045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1745 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636... VALID 132321Z - 140045Z SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM SWRN MT NEWD INTO NERN MT -- WITHIN WW 636. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS INDICATED OVER CENTRAL MT ATTM...ALONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN MT SWWD INTO SWRN MT. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW OVER CENTRAL MT INVOF LOW...WHERE AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WITH VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED /NEAR 50 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION/...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THREAT FOR HAIL WITH STRONGER / ROTATING STORMS. THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. ..GOSS.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 48940426 45000899 45001276 48300882 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 01:33:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 20:33:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507140145.j6E1jTdc017546@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140144 NDZ000-MTZ000-140315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0844 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NERN MT / NWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636... VALID 140144Z - 140315Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NERN MT...AND SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD EWD OUT OF WW INTO PARTS OF NWRN ND. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED E OF CURRENT WW. LATEST SURFACE / OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS NERN MT / NWRN ND ATTM...E OF CURRENT WW. MEANWHILE...STORMS CONTINUE FURTHER W INTO CENTRAL MT...INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING NE-SW ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE STATE. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE / SPREAD EWD WITH TIME AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING FROM W TO E AND THUS SLOWLY ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH TIME...EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE...LIKELY REQUIRING NEW WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 07/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 48560838 49130107 46430359 45360933 45391210 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 03:47:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 22:47:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507140359.j6E3xcaE005806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140355 NDZ000-MTZ000-140500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT / NWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636...637... VALID 140355Z - 140500Z THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MT...BUT REMAIN STRONG / SEVERE OVER NERN MT / NWRN ND. THOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 14/05Z...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PARTS OF ERN MT AND WRN ND FOR POTENTIAL THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND 14/05Z. LATEST DATA SHOWS THAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS ERN MT / NWRN ND...THOUGH AIRMASS STABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS WRN AND INTO CENTRAL ND. AS UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS EWD ACROSS WRN AND INTO CENTRAL MT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING OUT OF WW 636 / INTO WW 637. EVENTUALLY...CONVECTION WILL ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS W CENTRAL ND. IN THE MEAN TIME...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 637...WHERE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH HAVE BEEN RECENTLY OBSERVED. THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR...BEYOND WHICH NEW WW OR LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW 637 MAY BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 07/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 46910765 48000644 48960553 49000183 46720427 46700645 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 14:56:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 09:56:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507141508.j6EF88Of006380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141505 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141505 NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-141700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NY...SRN VT...WRN MA...SWRN NH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141505Z - 141700Z SMALL FORWARD PROPAGATING TSTM LINE MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS APCHG 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA...CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE...AS IT MOVES OVER GFL AREA AND NEARBY PORTIONS HUDSON VALLEY...SERN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD INTO WRN MA AND MOVE AS FAR E AS SWRN NH. WW NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS ACTIVITY ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THERMODYNAMICALLY MODIFIED ALY RAOB SUGGEST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND...AS INFLOW LAYER HEATS AND MIXES AND SFC-BASED INSTABILITY INCREASES. TEMPS RISING INTO LOW-MID 80S F WITH CURRENTLY OBSERVED SFC DEW POINTS WILL YIELD MLCAPES AND SBCAPES IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE BY APPROXIMATELY 17Z...ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERTED-V PROFILE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL AMBIENT FLOW OR SHEAR...AS EVIDENT IN 10-15 KT LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS IN 12Z ALY RAOB AND LATEST VWP. IN SUCH WEAK AMBIENT FLOW ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE GUST FRONT SURGE WELL AHEAD OF PARENT CORES...AND MUST MAINTAIN STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATIONAL TENDENCY TO SUSTAIN FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE WITH EMBEDDED SMALL BOWS ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL-SCALE DOWNDRAFT SURGES. ..EDWARDS.. 07/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY... 43467506 43577460 43707435 43837407 43837385 43667330 43467287 43227253 42957251 42777258 42657282 42767347 42937394 43347494  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 17:19:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 12:19:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507141731.j6EHVf3X030136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141729 SCZ000-GAZ000-141930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1749 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL GA...SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141729Z - 141930Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER ECENTRAL GA SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO SC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE LIKELY POSING AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SC MAY ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WINDS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SUBTLE MCV OVER CENTRAL GA. RECENT MONTGOMERY VWP INDICATED AROUND 20-25 KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS ECENTRAL GA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GRADUALLY INCREASING WAA AHEAD OF THE MCV SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTMS OVER SC ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT AND OTHER WEAKER SFC TROUGHS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED WIND FIELDS SPREADING EWD ACROSS SC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..CROSBIE.. 07/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34567966 34688060 34848174 33958260 33048273 32598273 32248244 32218118 32708033 33707904  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 18:16:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 13:16:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507141828.j6EIS4WF031173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141827 TXZ000-142130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 141827Z - 142130Z CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OVER THE HILL COUNTY OF TX WHILE POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. HOWEVER...HVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 2 INCHES. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER NWRN TX THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LBB VWP DATA INDICATED AROUND 30 KTS OF NLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE MOVING TOWARDS THE WRN HILL COUNTRY. INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN HILL COUNTRY ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR SJT TO TPL TO PSN. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AOA 3500 J/KG...COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME PULSE SVR WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WRN HILL COUNTY WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS. FARTHER EAST...WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLOWER EWD STM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT HVY RAINFALL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE ERN HILL COUNTRY/I-35 CORRIDOR FROM AUS TO ACT AND EVENTUALLY EWD TO NEAR CLL. ..CROSBIE.. 07/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31719714 31719919 31210003 30390013 29889944 29679863 29659726 29839653 30359607 30819593 31639673 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 19:11:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 14:11:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507151923.j6FJNRE7006056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151922 ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-152045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE OK/NE TX/NRN LA AND CNTRL/SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 151922Z - 152045Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/NE TX INTO CNTRL/SRN AR AND NRN LA. A SEVERE WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED. ON PERIPHERY OF ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AND REMNANT MCV ACROSS NE TX...WSW-ENE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH EXISTS FROM ALONG THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK/NRN TX INTO CNTRL AR. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH UPPER/SFC TROUGH AND MCV MAY PROVIDE AN INITIAL FOCUS...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIMITED BY WEAK /10-15 KTS OR LESS/ LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS PER DEQUEEN AR PROFILER/REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...PERHAPS UP TO 2 IN/HR. ..GUYER.. 07/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32329164 32189380 32559443 32969503 33099622 33059743 33509795 33959801 34849625 35509424 35409198 35439073 34509064 33189125 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 19:33:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 14:33:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507151945.j6FJj0TF015247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151943 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151943 WIZ000-MNZ000-152145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NERN MN...EXTREME NERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151943Z - 152145Z CAP IS BREAKING INVOF COLD FRONT OVER AREA BETWEEN DLH-BRD...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW TOWARD NRN PORTION MN/SD BORDER. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WHILE CELLS STILL ARE RELATIVELY DISCRETE. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM HIB...BRD...30 W ATY...MOVING ESE AT 10-15 KT. WEAK THERMAL BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT S AND SW OF LAKE BREEZE...FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY WI SWWD ACROSS PINE COUNTY MN...THEN NWWD TO INTERSECTION WITH FRONT OVER CENTRAL AITKIN COUNTY MN...WHERE ISOLATED MULTICELL TSTM HAS DEVELOPED. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT HAS DESTABILIZED CONSIDERABLY WITH SFC HEATING INTO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S F...AND DEW POINTS LOW 70S...CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 3000-4000 J/KG. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER THIS AREA -- 10-20 KT BELOW 400 MB AS EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR TO REMAIN WEAK OVER REGION...LIMITING ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IN SUCH STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STORM-SCALE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS PROVIDING LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT...A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS OR HAIL REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 07/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 45649612 46319441 46959303 47699157 47609119 47449134 47149184 46829190 46609157 46419151 46139209 45479385 44999604 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 19:41:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 14:41:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507151953.j6FJrOdb019398@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151949 COR WIZ000-MNZ000-152145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NERN MN...EXTREME NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151949Z - 152145Z CORRECTED FOR DIRECTIONAL TYPO CAP IS BREAKING INVOF COLD FRONT OVER AREA BETWEEN DLH-BRD...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW TOWARD NRN PORTION MN/SD BORDER. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WHILE CELLS STILL ARE RELATIVELY DISCRETE. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM HIB...BRD...30 W ATY...MOVING ESE AT 10-15 KT. WEAK THERMAL BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT S AND SW OF LAKE BREEZE...FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY WI SWWD ACROSS PINE COUNTY MN...THEN NWWD TO INTERSECTION WITH FRONT OVER CENTRAL AITKIN COUNTY MN...WHERE ISOLATED MULTICELL TSTM HAS DEVELOPED. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT HAS DESTABILIZED CONSIDERABLY WITH SFC HEATING INTO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S F...AND DEW POINTS LOW 70S...CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 3000-4000 J/KG. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER THIS AREA -- 10-20 KT BELOW 400 MB AS EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR TO REMAIN WEAK OVER REGION...LIMITING ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IN SUCH STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STORM-SCALE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS PROVIDING LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT...A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS OR HAIL REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 07/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 45649612 46319441 46959303 47699157 47609119 47449134 47149184 46829190 46609157 46419151 46139209 45479385 44999604  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 13:59:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 08:59:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507161411.j6GEBT42016512@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161410 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161410 NDZ000-161615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1759 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OPTIONS CENTRAL/WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161410Z - 161615Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY ENEWD 20-25 KT ACROSS MO RIVER AREA SW MOT AND ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL ND WSW BIS. OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY 7-8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. 12Z 850 MB CHART SAMPLED STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME OVER REGION. THIS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES AMIDST PLUME OF INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE LOCATED ABOVE SFC. THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ND...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY COUPLES AND RESULTS IN SLIGHT WEAKENING OF 25-30 KT LLJ. BIS RAOB AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1500-2000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE...HOWEVER VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT -- IN MID/UPPER LEVELS OF CLOUD-BEARING LAYER -- WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. ..EDWARDS.. 07/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS... 45960264 48990400 49000131 45969973 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 19:31:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 14:31:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507161943.j6GJhTc9025412@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161942 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-162115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN MT...EXTREME NERN WY...WRN ND...NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161942Z - 162115Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WIND SHIFT LINE AND DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW JUST SE BIL...ENEWD TO BETWEEN MLS AND BROADUS...THEN ESEWD ACROSS HARDING/PERKINS/ZIEBACH COUNTIES SD. THIS DENOTES NRN PERIPHERY OF MOST INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/DRYING...AND SHOULD SHIFT NWD THROUGH BHK AND SWRN ND DURING NEXT FEW HOURS AS INTENSE HEATING CONTINUES. MIDLEVEL CONVECTION -- EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY OVER NERN MT -- IS OCCURRING IN ZONE OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT IS SHIFTING EWD TOWARD WRN ND. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SFC-BASED AND INTENSIFY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AS INSOLATION N OF PRESENT DRYLINE POSITION CONTINUES TO ERODE SBCINH...WITH MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG IN RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR 60S SFC DEW POINTS OBSERVED AROUND GDV/BHK/SDY. DEW POINT AT DIK HAS RISEN ABOVE 70 F. STRONG AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL FLOWS ARE EVIDENT IN VWP...WITH BACKED SFC FLOW N OF DRYLINE ENLARGING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARS INDICATE BOTH BOWS AND SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. FARTHER S...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING INVOF MT/WY BORDER WILL MOVE EWD ATOP VERY WELL MIXED LAYER...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS GIVEN STRENGTHENING FLOWS. ..EDWARDS.. 07/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45060612 45700699 46860672 47960479 48480288 48350168 47330128 45950118 44950109 44860307 44800531 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 02:23:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 21:23:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507170235.j6H2Zavk030560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170234 MNZ000-NDZ000-170400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1762 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0934 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND THROUGH NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170234Z - 170400Z STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH NERN ND AND EVENTUALLY FAR NWRN MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. FORCING FOR ASCENT N OF WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD MAINTAIN SUPPORT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH NRN ND AND EVENTUALLY NWRN MN NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING STORMS OVER NERN ND AND NWRN MN WITH MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY POSE A LIMITING FACTOR. NEVERTHELESS...FORCING MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT NEXT FEW HOURS FOR STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH NERN ND AND FAR NWRN MN. ..DIAL.. 07/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48249619 47869719 47739920 48329969 48959883 48929616 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 06:01:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 01:01:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507170612.j6H6Cljg012006@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170611 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170610 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-170715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1763 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...NW SD...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 641... VALID 170610Z - 170715Z MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...AND LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY...POSSIBLY WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO. STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...DOWNSTREAM OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...APPEARS TO RAPIDLY BE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS IS WHERE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...IN FAVORABLE MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG CAPPING THERMAL RIDGE. SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME CONFINED TO MOIST POST-SURFACE FRONTAL REGIME...WHERE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING WEAKENS INHIBITION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING OVERNIGHT. MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT...BUT STRONGEST STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. ..KERR.. 07/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46830452 47540337 48510198 48700063 48389962 46850062 46230160 45320277 44900407 44560537 45280584 46180499 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 16:43:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 11:43:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507171655.j6HGtPiu026889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171652 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-171845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1764 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN MN...EXTREME ERN SD...EXTREME SERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171652Z - 171845Z POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM INVOF MN/ND BORDER SSWWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN SD...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD INTO WRN AND NWRN MN. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. 16Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NEAR LINE FROM HCO...GFK...MHE. FRONT SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS AREA OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PRECEDED BY WIND SHIFT/CONFLUENCE LINE NOW EVIDENT OVER EXTREME WRN MN AND NWRN IA. PREFRONTAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HEAT DIABATICALLY AND DESTABILIZE NEAR SFC. AS TEMPS REACH LOW-MID 90S F...SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. TSTMS FORMING ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT MAY CATCH UP WITH CONFLUENCE LINE OVER WRN MN. ACTIVITY MOVING INTO AREA OF RELATIVELY BACKED FLOW FARTHER E WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ENHANCED STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN WARM SECTOR WILL INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT...WITH UP TO 50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR CANADIAN BORDER AND ONLY 20-30 KT OVER SERN SD. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE...HOWEVER FILLING OF THAT LINE MAY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN PRONOUNCED STABLE LAYER AND CINH EVIDENT IN 600-700 MB LAYER FROM 12Z BIS RAOB...EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN MN IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 07/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 48589339 46779405 45589456 44159553 43319754 45329692 46989671 49009630 49009515 49399515 49369502 49369491 49329484 49179480 48899468 48769469 48719454 48699428 48639422 48629384 48519379 48519352  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 19:34:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 14:34:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507171946.j6HJk97D018176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171943 AZZ000-172145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1765 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171943Z - 172145Z OVER NEXT FEW HOURS...TSTMS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING...AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...ALONG MOGOLLON RIM FROM NEAR FLG SEWD TOWARD NM BORDER. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE GENERALLY SWD OFF RIM INTO LOWER DESERTS AND PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING OUTFLOWS. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IN 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...AND IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR RIM CONVECTION TO MOVE SWD TO SSWWD WHILE PRODUCING STRONG-SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS. OUTFLOWS FROM INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY COALESCE AND FORM A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM. VWP AND RUC SOUNDING WINDS INDICATE DEEP LAYER OF NLY TO NNELY FLOW DIRECTED AWAY FROM OROGRAPHIC INITIATION AREA INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER PHX-TUS CORRIDOR...LOW-MID 40S EWD TOWARD SAD. EVEN CONSIDERING LOW LEVEL HEATING/MIXING...DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY RICH OVER THIS REGION WITH 1-1.5 INCH PW INDICATED IN MODIFIED RAOBS...RUC SOUNDINGS AND GPS-DERIVED OUTPUT. EXPECT 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE ATOP VERY DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND ACCELERATION OF DOWNDRAFTS. ..EDWARDS.. 07/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 35091160 34991142 34571121 34251097 34051062 33970991 33590936 33180916 32500933 32070966 31731027 31711081 32031139 32911255 34801178 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 22:07:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 17:07:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507172218.j6HMIsQW029133@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172218 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-180015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1766 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS AND SRN/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172218Z - 180015Z CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST WITH INITIATION OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH. MID LEVEL CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS HAS HINDERED HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF ERN/SRN NEB INTO WRN IA FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CAP AROUND 700 MB SEEMINGLY INHIBITING SFC BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION THUS FAR PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WCNTRL/NRN KS...SUB-SYNOPTIC SFC LOW ANALYZED ALONG COLD FRONT INVOF HLC/HILL CITY KS...WHERE TEMPS HAVE BREACHED 100 F OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEGREE OF DEEP MIXING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY YET LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SFC BASED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING FROM NW/WCNTRL KS INTO SCNTRL/SE NEB...WITH MOST RECENT VIS SATELLITE TRENDS REFLECTING SOME ENHANCED CU INVOF THE FRONT. PROVIDED INITIATION...REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS PORTRAY MODEST 20-25 KTS VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE SFC PORTION OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CNTRL/SW NEB. RELATIVELY GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY COME LATER THIS EVENING...AS MODEST SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH SWD SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE. ..GUYER.. 07/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 38430121 38820175 39700158 41169871 42469713 42499680 42519552 41219521 39689752 38919938 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 23:36:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 18:36:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507172348.j6HNm9Ov020932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172345 MNZ000-WIZ000-180145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1767 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172345Z - 180145Z STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING FROM CNTRL THROUGH NERN MN DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE STRONGER STORMS MIGHT POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. UNLESS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OR ORGANIZATION...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL MN SWWD THROUGH SWRN MN AND WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS STRONGER FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS IS FINALLY OVERTAKING THE FRONT. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER N CNTRL MN THIS EVENING. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KT IN VICINITY OF FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT TO ROTATE. WARM MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL HAIL POTENTIAL. ..DIAL.. 07/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... 47749068 46219246 44689382 44649455 46709459 48469305  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 02:10:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 21:10:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507180222.j6I2MIRi026246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180220 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-180415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0920 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS THROUGH SERN NEB AND NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642... VALID 180220Z - 180415Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS..PRIMARILY ACROSS SRN AND ERN NEB AND EVENTUALLY INTO EXTREME NRN KS. A WW E OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642 IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND W OF A COLD FRONT FROM SERN MN THROUGH IA AND INTO SRN/SERN NEB NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY OVER NEB HAS TENDED TO REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL REGION WHERE LIFT IS DEEP ENOUGH TO OVERCOME EFFECTS OF APPARENT STRONGER CAP IN THAT REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS STRONGEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE POST FRONTAL STORMS OVER NEB HAVE SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZATION THAN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN IA. DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE ACROSS IA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES THAN FARTHER W. THIS IN ADDITION TO THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO EXTREME NRN KS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD. ..DIAL.. 07/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 41509378 40089843 40000079 40709964 41399797 42349565 43289438 44459342 43989209 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 04:01:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 23:01:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507180413.j6I4DLZM021327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180411 NEZ000-KSZ000-180515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1769 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND SERN NEB THROUGH NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642... VALID 180411Z - 180515Z WW 642 WILL EXPIRE AT 05Z. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY PERSIST A COUPLE HOURS BEYOND THIS TIME...BUT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN POST FRONTAL ZONE FROM NWRN KS THROUGH SRN NEB WHERE LIFT IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN FARTHER EAST...POSSIBLY DUE IN PART TO THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS GRADUALLY SPREADING SEWD THROUGH SRN NEB AND NRN KS. HOWEVER... INTENSITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E SOURCE REGION ACROSS KS CONTINUES TO COOL. ..DIAL.. 07/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD... 40189726 39160024 39730069 40889805 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 14:23:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 09:23:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507181435.j6IEZBOs025169@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181434 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181434 MIZ000-181630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0934 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181434Z - 181630Z STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OVER NWRN LOWER MI. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI WITHIN THE HOUR. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ON LAND/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MI. IN ADDITION...MORNING RAOB DATA AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NEWD THRU WI AT THIS TIME INITIATING UPWARD ASCENT ACROSS THIS AREA. MORNING RAOBS ALSO INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT OVER LOWER MI WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S. THUS...MLCAPE HAS ALREADY REACHED 1500-2000 J/KG. SOUNDINGS VERIFY FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR STORMS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY... LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /USING THE APX RAOB/ ARE NEAR 7.0C/KM INDICATING THAT MANY OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41868334 41798424 41818538 42078666 43008668 44348621 45168579 45968454 44988265 43648221 42568244 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 16:20:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 11:20:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507181631.j6IGVtCx022389@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181629 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-181830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1771 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL IL...NRN/CENTRAL IND...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181629Z - 181830Z MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY ACROSS THIS AREA AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EWD ACROSS NERN AND CENTRAL IL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE INTO THE LOW 80S WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S GIVING MLCAPE VALUES AT OR JUST ABOVE 2000 J/KG. ANALYSIS OF RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM ARE JUST ABOVE 7C/KM INDICATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 41808759 41348818 40748902 39849006 39508817 39618616 39738517 39908480 40398412 41388348 41638403 41798586 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 20:47:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 15:47:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507182059.j6IKxJSC013672@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182057 NMZ000-AZZ000-182300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1775 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE/SCNTRL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182057Z - 182300Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS SE INTO SCNTRL AZ AS STORMS MOVE SWWD ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS. DRIER AIR OVER NRN AZ HAS SEEMINGLY CONTRIBUTED TO A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NRN/CNTRL AZ THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY EVOLVING ON THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF SE AZ...AS WELL AS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. ADDITIONALLY...REMNANT MCV OVER THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME SE AZ IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING WESTWARD AROUND UPPER RIDGE. THIS FEATURE MAY FURTHER FOCUS CONVECTION INTO THE TUCSON AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z RAOB FROM TUCSON/PHOENIX FEATURED SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THIS MORNING TO YESTERDAY...WITH LATEST GPS PRECIP WATER MEASUREMENTS CONFIRMING SIMILAR PRECIP WATER VALUES TO YESTERDAY ACROSS SRN AZ. GIVEN ENOUGH CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/SUFFICIENT COLD POOL CONGLOMERATION...15-20 KTS OF STEERING NELY FLOW PER RUC SOUNDINGS AND PHOENIX/TUCSON WSR-88D VWPS WOULD SUPPORT SWWD PROPAGATION ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. HOT TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 100 F AND DEEPLY MIXED PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 07/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 33961120 33771027 32840915 32270871 31340887 31581099 32031190 33071246 34111209  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 22:25:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 17:25:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507182237.j6IMbGEZ026244@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182236 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-182330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1776 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN LOWER MI...IND...OH AND SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643...644... VALID 182236Z - 182330Z WW 643 WILL EXPIRE AT 23Z AND WW 644 WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER WW FOR THIS AREA IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A SQUALL LINE FROM SERN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH CNTRL IND AND SRN IL CONTINUES EWD AT AROUND 30 KT. UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW OF 30-40 KT EXISTS BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 6 KM...BUT WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. STORMS WITHIN THE LINE APPEAR POORLY ORGANIZED...BUT MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD UNDERGO AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 07/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 40098642 41668352 40908162 38388850 38658951 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 14:58:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 09:58:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507191509.j6JF9tGb002276@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191507 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191507 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-191630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1777 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 191507Z - 191630Z THE LATEST DATA ANALYSIS APPEARS TO SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...THE OUTLOOK IS BEING UPGRADED TO SLIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED IN ERN NY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ERN NY...VT...CT AND WRN ME WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY INCREASE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES TO AROUND 25 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 07/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 44907346 44997125 46017016 47266882 46816789 44786721 43506983 43187019 41887001 41127123 41067311 42047410 43327417  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 16:47:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 11:47:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507191659.j6JGx7wo032567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191658 TXZ000-191900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191658Z - 191900Z OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE EMILY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INITIALLY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL BY MID-AFTERNOON. THUS A TORNADO WW IS POSSIBLE BY 19Z. RECENT 88-D IMAGERY FROM BROWNSVILLE INDICATES PRIMARY OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES EAST OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND MOVING WWD AROUND 30 KTS. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT/FCST MOTION WILL TAKE THIS BAND INTO SOUTH PADRE AROUND 1745Z...AND INTO BRO/HARLINGEN AREAS BETWEEN 18-19Z. ALTHOUGH VWP AT BRO SHOWS VERY LITTLE TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM ATTM...SRH FROM 50-75 M2/S2...STRONGER AND MORE VEERED /ELY/ 1 KM WINDS ARE FCST TO MOVE INLAND BETWEEN 19-21Z ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE MAIN OUTER BAND. MEANWHILE...AS EMILY APPROACHES THE NERN MX COAST THIS AFTERNOON...SFC WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WILL VEER FROM NLY TO NELY WHILE GRADUALLY INCREASING. THE OVERALL NET RESULT SHOULD BE INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH RECENT RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING AROUND 100 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH BY 20Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 27679724 27419840 26509879 26179833 26019718 27009737 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 18:47:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 13:47:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507191859.j6JIxOab032107@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191857 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191856 AZZ000-192030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1780 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191856Z - 192030Z SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER ERN AZ AND SW NM. THE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING WWD ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE WHITE MTNS AND MOGOLLON RIM DUE TO SFC HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AIRMASS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PLATEAU IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH LIFTED INDICES RANGING FROM -2 TO -6 C. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 20 TO 25 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE-TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ESPECIALLY AS THE CELLS PROPAGATE WWD INTO THE DESERTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 07/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 34091295 35021231 34611077 33410919 31560925 31380995 32091291  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 19:40:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 14:40:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507191952.j6JJq1LW027783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191951 VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-192145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN VA...SWRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191951Z - 192145Z ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTIVE LINES TRY TO ORGANIZE WHILE MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN VA AND SWRN MD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL/ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST REGIONAL VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION OVER WRN VA WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A 30 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AT 5 KM MOVING ACROSS WV. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG. GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAK LINEAR ORGANIZATION ALREADY OBSERVED...ALONG WITH MODERATE MID LEVELS WINDS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE LEAD OR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE LINES AS THEY MOVE OUT OF WV/WRN VA INTO THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL/ERN VA AND SWRN MD. HIGHER TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS OVER ERN VA...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S ...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CELL/LINE MERGERS SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SVR WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... 38647733 38437810 38207867 37437958 36597921 36547819 36527646 36597601 37817585 38627648 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 19:56:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 14:56:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507192007.j6JK7bqi003045@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192006 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192006 KSZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1782 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192006Z - 192200Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PULSE LIKE NATURE OF CONVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE GREATER ORGANIZATION. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR SLN SEWD TO NEAR CFV. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. GIVEN FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND LITTLE REMAINING CINH...ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS VERY POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS BY 22Z. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE REGION PER VWP/PROFILER DATA...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS AROUND 25 DEG F SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED DMGG WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THUS GENERALLY SLOW NWD MOVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED. ..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID... 37329581 38649633 39409797 39479900 38939899 38259837 37549736 37219636 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 20:16:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 15:16:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507192028.j6JKSGPr014052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192026 SDZ000-NDZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL ND/NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192026Z - 192200Z STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING IN SCNTRL ND AND NRN SD. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NWD ACROSS NCNTRL ND WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM CNTRL ND INTO SE MT. TWO SMALL MESOLOWS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT IN SW ND AND FAR NW SD. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOWS AND FRONT IS ENHANCING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SUGGESTS STORMS INITIATE NEAR BISMARK AND EXPAND EWD/SEWD ACROSS SERN ND AND NCNTRL SD WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING IN SRN ND AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE...MOVING EWD TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN SERN ND WITH THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 07/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46400165 45870274 45390263 44910111 45549899 46079733 46589770 47279882 47629984 47020095 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 21:20:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 16:20:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507192132.j6JLWP7J014886@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192131 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-192330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1784 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0431 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN ME...NH...ERN VT AND MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192131Z - 192330Z THREAT FOR SVR STORMS APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF WW 645 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WW VALID TIME /00Z/. ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY OCCUR TO THE E-NE OF WW 645 ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE...BUT OVERALL LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL WW. SEMI-ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM WRN ME SWD INTO CENTRAL MA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AROUND 25 KTS. RECENT OBS AT MT. WASHINGTON INDICATED A GUST TO 52 KTS. THUS...DMGG WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW 645 DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. CURRENT MOTIONS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL REACH THE EDGE OF WW 645 AROUND 23Z. UPSTREAM OF THIS LINE THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO HAVE STABILIZED SUFFICIENTLY THAT ADDITIONAL SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY AND THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WW 645 IN THE NEXT STATUS MESSAGE. OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...THREAT FOR SVR MAY MOVE OUT OF WW 645 INTO THE AREA BY 00Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED AREAL/TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. ..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX... 45326814 45197018 45147048 41997180 41947082 43826972 44756701 45326728 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 22:20:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 17:20:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507192232.j6JMWJg3011674@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192231 TXZ000-200030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1785 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 646... VALID 192231Z - 200030Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVER WW 646 THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX ALONG AND A FEW COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MEXICAN BORDER...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY. CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY AT 2230Z WAS ROUGHLY 125 MILES SE OF BRO. PLEASE SEE ADDITIONAL NHC FORECASTS FOR UP TO DATE DETAILS ON STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF EMILY. EMILY REMAINS FAIRLY COMPACT...AND ADDITIONAL OUTER BANDS OF EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EWD INTO WW 646 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG LOW LEVEL ELY JET MOVING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS SPEED MAX WAS LIKELY 50-75 MILES OFFSHORE AT 22Z...AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST BETWEEN 00-02Z. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE ALREADY...RECENT VWP AT BRO INDICATING AROUND 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH...STRONGER AND MORE ELY COMPONENT TO THE 1 KM WINDS SHOULD AID IN AN INCREASE OF THIS 0-1 KM SRH TO AROUND 300 M2/S2. MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH THE NEXT CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WILL RESIDE IN THIS INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS IT MOVES WWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW 646 AFTER 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 28109622 25699712 25699931 28109853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 00:30:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 19:30:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507200042.j6K0gDaw024445@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200039 NEZ000-SDZ000-200245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1786 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD THROUGH N CNTRL AND NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200039Z - 200245Z STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FROM CNTRL SD INTO NWRN AND N CNTRL NEB MIGHT POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND MICROBURSTS NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THE THREAT IN THIS REGION...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM W CNTRL SD INTO NWRN NEB. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WHERE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...MIXING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED THE CAP. STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG THE THETA-E AXIS DOWNSTREAM FROM WHERE THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. A FEW STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AND POSE A SEVERE THREAT AS THEY MOVE EWD AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT SUGGESTS SOME STORMS MAY DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD ENCOUNTER A STRONGER CAP AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. ..DIAL.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR... 41080212 42580127 44120066 45020028 44869938 42939995 41180128  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 02:50:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 21:50:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507200302.j6K32AUR005397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200301 TXZ000-200430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1787 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 646... VALID 200301Z - 200430Z TORNADO WATCH 646 REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH 6Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE EMILY. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SYSTEM AFFECTS THE NERN COAST OF MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TX. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY IS WELL WITHIN RANGE OF BROWNSVILLE RADAR WITH NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 3Z ADVISORY POSITION 120 STATUTE MILES SE OF BROWNSVILLE WITH MOVEMENT WNWWD AT 6KT. EARLIER SPIRAL BAND ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF SRN TX HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASED MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE LOW DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS UNTIL INTERIOR BANDS OF THE HURRICANE IMPACT THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL CELLULAR ACTIVITY EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHERNMOST BAND SE OF BROWNSVILLE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO ACTIVITY AS SYSTEM MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE NERN COAST OF MEXICO. VAD WIND PROFILE FROM BRO REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH CELLS...GIVEN ROUGHLY 35DEG OF VEERING AND 40KT SHEAR IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. ..BANACOS.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 28109622 25699712 25699931 28109853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 03:33:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 22:33:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507200345.j6K3j1Cx019184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200343 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-200515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1043 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL SD THROUGH ERN ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647... VALID 200343Z - 200515Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM N CNTRL SD...ERN ND INTO NWRN MN. A WW E OF WW 647 IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LATE THIS EVENING SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE FROM N CNTRL SD...ERN ND INTO NWRN MN. OVERALL TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SD AND SERN ND TO WEAKEN AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO NERN SD WHERE THE CAP CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. STORMS DEVELOPING FROM E CNTRL ND INTO NWRN MN ALONG NERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT...WITH THE STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET PROMOTING SOME SWWD BACKBUILDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN ND NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... 48579416 45799828 45909950 48759632 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 04:07:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 23:07:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507200419.j6K4JHWA030122@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200418 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-200545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1789 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD INTO EXTREME NERN NEB...SWRN MN AND NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200418Z - 200545Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW NEXT HOUR OR TWO FROM PARTS OF ERN SD AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME NERN NEB...SWRN MN AND NWRN IA. A CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD FROM CNTRL THROUGH NERN SD. ANOTHER STORM HAD INTENSIFIED ALONG THE NERN NEB SERN SD BORDER. A STRONG 45+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND GRADUALLY VEER WITH TIME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES EWD THROUGH SD. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH ERN SD AND INTO EXTREME NERN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME WARMING IN THE 1.5-3 KM LAYER WILL ALSO OCCUR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...AND THIS MAY ACT TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP AND SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. ASSUMING LIFT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME EFFECTS OF THE CAP...MUCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ..DIAL.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... 42649677 43839910 45289794 44979651 43109594 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 06:18:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 01:18:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507200629.j6K6Thkp006274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200628 MIZ000-MNZ000-200700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1790 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647... VALID 200628Z - 200700Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...AND NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ...EMBEDDED WITHIN PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/ U.S. BORDER. SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA BY 08-09Z...BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ...BUT ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY DEVELOPING INTO/ABOVE COLDER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ..KERR.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...FGF... 47768570 47398853 47369181 47649415 47879505 48589336 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 08:13:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 03:13:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507200825.j6K8PKRm008904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200823 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-201030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649... VALID 200823Z - 201030Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...AND TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF NEW WW TO THE EAST OF WW 649. MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. HOWEVER...ANOTHER BELT OF STRONGER FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD AROUND NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IS SLOWLY NOSING INTO AREAS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STORMS IN NORTH-SOUTH BAND FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CONSOLIDATION INTO ONE LARGE CLUSTER MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ON NOSE OF 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE...AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...REFLECTED BY LEADING EDGE OF 70F+ DEW POINTS...FEEDS INTO ACTIVITY...ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. GIVEN MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH ASSOCIATED RISK OF STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL JET LIKELY WILL SUPPORT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHER IOWA THROUGH DAYBREAK. ..KERR.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 44579510 44529367 44089286 43569137 42849102 42039125 42049270 42119417 42069560 42389617 43299601 44009572 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 09:06:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 04:06:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507200918.j6K9I478027173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200916 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200915 TXZ000-201015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1792 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0415 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 648... VALID 200915Z - 201015Z RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES SEEMS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CAMERON/WILLACY/HIDALGO COUNTIES. TO THE NORTH OF CIRCULATION CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MAKE LANDFALL NEXT FEW HOURS...SIGNIFICANT OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND HAS ROTATED INLAND...ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE CIRCULATIONS ARE EVIDENT...EMBEDDED WITHIN CELLS COMPRISING BAND...AND WILL PROVIDE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH DAYBREAK...MOSTLY NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE. ..KERR.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BRO... 26749733 26799823 26599870 26329882  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 10:45:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 05:45:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201057.j6KAvDV3022777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201055 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-201230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1793 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN...CNTRL/SRN WI...IA...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649... VALID 201055Z - 201230Z NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...MUCH IF NOT ALL OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE CLEARED/CANCELLED BEFORE 14Z EXPIRATION. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA WITHIN STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS HAVE GENERALLY MERGED...AND CONGLOMERATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EVEN WITH ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THESE AREAS...SMALL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL ACROSS GUST FRONT SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY...AND CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENING...MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 13-15Z. ACTIVITY NEAR INTERSECTION OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS AND STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SIOUX CITY IA MAY BE SLOWEST TO WEAKEN...BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE CELLS. ..KERR.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42709580 43119354 44179315 45269316 46059214 45359045 43679010 42449086 41759284 41629490 41659621 41959675  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 14:14:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 09:14:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201425.j6KEPTaN012756@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201424 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201424 TXZ000-201600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1794 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0924 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 648... VALID 201424Z - 201600Z A TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TX AS HURRICANE EMILY MOVES INLAND TODAY. AS A RESULT...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REISSUED ACROSS SOUTH TX. VAD WIND PROFILES IN BROWNSVILLE CONTINUE TO SHOW 50 TO 70 KT OF ELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS THE RAINBANDS MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTH TX. ..BROYLES.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 25799774 26449902 27649950 28069876 27889766 26889721 25899710 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 15:58:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 10:58:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201610.j6KGASTq002313@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201609 TXZ000-201715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL IL AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201609Z - 201715Z CONVECTIVE LINE OVER ERN IA APPEARS TO BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BDRY LAYER...AND THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER NRN IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA SHORTLY. REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATES 40 KT REAR INFLOW JET AROUND 2 KM OVER ERN IA. DESPITE MARGINAL MID LEVEL WINDS...STRENGTH OF PRESSURE RISES /2-3 MB PER HOUR/ OVER ERN IA WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL IL AND EVENTUALLY NRN IND OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HRS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS LITTLE REMAINING CINH...AND OVER 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUS THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE LINE BY 18Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 28109622 25699712 25699931 28109853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 16:16:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 11:16:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201627.j6KGReLm011823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201627 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201626 MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-201800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1796 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN AND SRN IA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 201626Z - 201800Z A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS ONGOING JUST EAST OF OMAHA NEB. A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE CLUSTER MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN IA. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS FAR WRN IA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS SW IA WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB AS SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS COMBINED WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE RUC MODEL SHOWS THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AS THE STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AS THE STORMS REACH THE VICINITY OF DES MOINES BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID... 41599756 42479729 42499614 42269445 41699301 40569327 40709552 41099724 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 16:22:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 11:22:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201633.j6KGXZdA015083@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201632 OHZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-201730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL IL AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201632Z - 201730Z CONVECTIVE LINE OVER ERN IA APPEARS TO BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BDRY LAYER...AND THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER NRN IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA SHORTLY. REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATES 40 KT REAR INFLOW JET AROUND 2 KM OVER ERN IA. DESPITE MARGINAL MID LEVEL WINDS...STRENGTH OF PRESSURE RISES /2-3 MB PER HOUR/ OVER ERN IA WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL IL AND EVENTUALLY NRN IND OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HRS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS LITTLE REMAINING CINH...AND OVER 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUS THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE LINE BY 18Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41778661 42328816 42348946 41779033 41139100 40829112 40439096 40139049 39938841 39788711 39848560 40528476 41628481 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 16:25:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 11:25:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201636.j6KGaRpg016546@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201627 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201626 MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-201800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1796 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN AND SRN IA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 201626Z - 201800Z A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS ONGOING JUST EAST OF OMAHA NEB. A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE CLUSTER MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN IA. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS FAR WRN IA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS SW IA WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB AS SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS COMBINED WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE RUC MODEL SHOWS THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AS THE STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AS THE STORMS REACH THE VICINITY OF DES MOINES BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID... 41599756 42479729 42499614 42269445 41699301 40569327 40709552 41099724  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 16:29:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 11:29:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201640.j6KGexJT019130@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201632 OHZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-201730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL IL AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201632Z - 201730Z CONVECTIVE LINE OVER ERN IA APPEARS TO BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BDRY LAYER...AND THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER NRN IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA SHORTLY. REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATES 40 KT REAR INFLOW JET AROUND 2 KM OVER ERN IA. DESPITE MARGINAL MID LEVEL WINDS...STRENGTH OF PRESSURE RISES /2-3 MB PER HOUR/ OVER ERN IA WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL IL AND EVENTUALLY NRN IND OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HRS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS LITTLE REMAINING CINH...AND OVER 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUS THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE LINE BY 18Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41778661 42328816 42348946 41779033 41139100 40829112 40439096 40139049 39938841 39788711 39848560 40528476 41628481  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 16:57:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 11:57:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201709.j6KH9K0E002592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201708 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201707 TXZ000-201900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1797 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TEXAS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 201707Z - 201900Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST NORTH OF WW 650 ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM VICTORIA WWD TO NEAR/SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST NUMEROUS CELLS DEVELOPING IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUTER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE EMILY CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF MCALLEN TX. MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...0-1 KM SRH AROUND 100-150 M2/S2...EXISTS FROM THE LATITUDE OF VICTORIA SWD TO THE NRN EDGE OF WW 650. CONVECTIVE CELLS WEST OF VICTORIA WERE SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL ROTATION... INDICATING THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. RECENT SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AREA...EAST OF SAN ANTONIO AND EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE SWD INTO WW 650 BY MID AFTERNOON. THUS GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT TERM THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED NORTH OF WW 650 A WW MAY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... 29689760 29389856 28809933 27919934 27949814 27909706 28439650 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 17:31:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 12:31:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201742.j6KHgqsR019177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201742 TXZ000-201945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1797 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 650... VALID 201742Z - 201945Z ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST WITHIN EMBEDDED CELLS ALONG OUTER CIRCULATION BANDS OF HURRICANE EMILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY 20Z ACROSS FAR SERN PORTION OF WW 650...BRO/HRL METRO AREA...AND THUS THIS PORTION OF WW 650 SHOULD BE CLEARED BY THEN. LATEST VWP DATA FROM KBRO SHOWED MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WAS IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX...WITH SAMPLED 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 400 M2/S2. VALUES DECREASE NWD FROM BRO...BUT STILL SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH OUTER BAND CONVECTIVE CELLS. ONE CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING FROM SRN KENEDY COUNTY WWD TO NRN ZAPATA COUNTY IN PARTICULAR WILL LIKELY BE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. SOUTH OF THIS BAND...A SECONDARY BAND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED IN IT AS WELL AS IT ROTATES WWD ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 27879702 27909947 25749947 25719702 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 21:07:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 16:07:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507202119.j6KLJ2th005815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202118 AZZ000-202315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1799 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0418 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202118Z - 202315Z CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS OF CENTRAL/ECENTRAL AZ DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE AS CONVECTION MOVES WWD INTO LOWER FOOTHILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY AS CONVECTION REACHES LOWER DESERTS AN ORGANIZED SVR WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP...AND A WE WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WW FOR THIS AREA BY 00Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS HIGHER TODAY VERSUS 24 HRS AGO...WITH DEWPTS AVERAGING 2-4 DEGREES C HIGHER. CONSEQUENT SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FOR CINH TO REMAIN MODERATE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS...AROUND 100 J/KG OF MLCINH PER MODIFIED 18Z PHX/TUS SOUNDING BASED ON 21Z OBS. THUS...A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO MOVE WSWWD INTO LOWER FOOTHILLS/DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...18Z SOUNDING FROM FGZ INDICATES THAT GIVEN LITTLE CINH AND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WINDS OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH COLD POOL DRIVEN OUTFLOW AND WEAKENING CINH...SHOULD CARRY CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED SVR WINDS POTENTIAL INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 35551176 35161282 33901299 33161209 32341099 32281034 33090936 33840980 34771108 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 21:57:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 16:57:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507202209.j6KM91l9030770@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202208 TXZ000-210015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TEXAS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 650... VALID 202208Z - 210015Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WWD ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 650 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WW 650 AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY WEST OF WW 650 THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL/TEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IN THESE AREAS AND THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 650 BEYOND THE EXPIRATION TIME 00Z...A REPLACEMENT WW WILL BE UNLIKELY. T.S. EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE MTNS OF NERN MX /REF OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST/. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STRENGTH IN EMILY AND CONSEQUENT WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR OVER SOUTH TX. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST...AS EVIDENT BY VWP DATA FROM BRO WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE 100-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. THROUGH 00Z...THE THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 650 AND SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST OF WW 650 AS OUTER BAND CELLULAR CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PRIOR TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WEAKENING OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 27929710 28589781 28559852 28589954 28099991 27579959 25819949 25779827 26969789 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 22:01:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 17:01:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507202213.j6KMDdVN032724@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202212 SDZ000-NEZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1801 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202212Z - 202345Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH INTENSIFYING STORM NEAR RAP. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 2202Z...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN INTENSIFYING TSTM NEAR RAP MOVING 295/20-25 KTS. WHILE RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED...LOCALLY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OVER THE BLACK HILLS COUPLED WITH MESOSCALE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT HAS LIKELY ALLOWED FOR THE INITIATION OF THIS STORM. CURRENT RAP VWP INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS GIVEN ENELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW BENEATH 40-45 KT WLY WINDS IN THE 4-6 KM AGL LAYER. GIVEN ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER ONGOING STORM WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF AND/OR WHETHER ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER AND STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ONGOING TSTM. IF IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT THAT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED. ..MEAD.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 43640371 44300358 44670291 44480175 44080092 43500089 43040111 42640201 43070319 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 22:05:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 17:05:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507202217.j6KMH6ul001622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202208 TXZ000-210015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TEXAS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 650... VALID 202208Z - 210015Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WWD ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 650 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WW 650 AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY WEST OF WW 650 THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL/TEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IN THESE AREAS AND THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 650 BEYOND THE EXPIRATION TIME 00Z...A REPLACEMENT WW WILL BE UNLIKELY. T.S. EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE MTNS OF NERN MX /REF OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST/. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STRENGTH IN EMILY AND CONSEQUENT WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR OVER SOUTH TX. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST...AS EVIDENT BY VWP DATA FROM BRO WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE 100-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. THROUGH 00Z...THE THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 650 AND SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST OF WW 650 AS OUTER BAND CELLULAR CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PRIOR TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WEAKENING OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 27929710 28589781 28559852 28589954 28099991 27579959 25819949 25779827 26969789  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 22:12:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 17:12:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507202224.j6KMOZZ4004844@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202212 SDZ000-NEZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1801 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202212Z - 202345Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH INTENSIFYING STORM NEAR RAP. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 2202Z...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN INTENSIFYING TSTM NEAR RAP MOVING 295/20-25 KTS. WHILE RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED...LOCALLY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OVER THE BLACK HILLS COUPLED WITH MESOSCALE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT HAS LIKELY ALLOWED FOR THE INITIATION OF THIS STORM. CURRENT RAP VWP INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS GIVEN ENELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW BENEATH 40-45 KT WLY WINDS IN THE 4-6 KM AGL LAYER. GIVEN ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER ONGOING STORM WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF AND/OR WHETHER ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER AND STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ONGOING TSTM. IF IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT THAT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED. ..MEAD.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 43640371 44300358 44670291 44480175 44080092 43500089 43040111 42640201 43070319  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 22:33:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 17:33:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507202245.j6KMjmB9012713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202244 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1802 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0544 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD INTO NRN/CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 651... VALID 202244Z - 202345Z IN THE SHORT-TERM...A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER NRN IL WILL BE MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION. AS OF 2230Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED QUASI-LINEAR MCS WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK BOOKEND VORTEX FROM CLINTON COUNTY IN CNTRL LOWER MI SWD INTO DEFIANCE AND PAULDING COUNTIES IN FAR NWRN OH. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME DEGREE OF A COLD POOL...DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER SERN LOWER MI INTO N-CNTRL OH IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. FARTHER TO THE W...ZONALLY ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS FROM WHITESIDE EWD INTO COOK AND WILL COUNTIES IL CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM AFOREMENTIONED MCS. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WI CAN INTERACT WITH THIS AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY...ALLOWING FOR ONGOING STORMS TO INTENSIFY. WW 651 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 23Z...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS NRN IL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..MEAD.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... 39659015 41568747 43078598 41398484 39048984 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 22:44:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 17:44:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507202256.j6KMueZ3016394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202256 CAZ000-210130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1803 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 202256Z - 210130Z TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO/SAN DIEGO MTNS OF SRN CA THROUGH 00Z. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IF CONVECTION CAN MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS PRIOR TO WEAKENING. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO CTY MTNS NWD INTO THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE LOW-MID LEVEL ELY FLOW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES EVIDENT BY REGIONAL VWP/S SUGGESTS VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST SEVERAL HRS AFTER CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GIVEN HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES PER GOES PW IMAGERY...THREAT FOR HVY RAIN WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE GREATER MOIST UNSTABLE INFLOW WILL EXIST. WEAKENING CINH PER RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SLOWLY PROPAGATE ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER DESERTS OF SRN CA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WINDS GIVEN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX... 32681627 33581664 34141718 34471718 34701750 34841684 34431632 33711598 32681567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 02:35:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 21:35:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507210247.j6L2lSXl024396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210246 NEZ000-SDZ000-210415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1804 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652... VALID 210246Z - 210415Z POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF WW 562 THROUGH 04Z. ADDITIONAL WW WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY. UPSCALE GROWTH OF MORE DISCRETE STORMS INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING FROM TRIPP COUNTY SD SWD INTO KEYA PAHA AND BROWN COUNTIES OF N-CNTRL NEB. SRN FLANK OF THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM /WHICH HAS EXHIBITED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED A WIND GUSTS TO 69 KTS AT VTN AND 61 KTS AT ANW. GIVEN CURRENT MOTION OF 290-300/30-40KTS...LEADING EDGE OF MCS WILL MOVE OUT OF WW 562 BETWEEN 0300-0330Z. GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS N-CNTRL NEB...IT APPEARS THAT MCS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SHOULD MCS BEGIN TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE/ACCELERATE...A MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BECOME LIKELY INTO PORTIONS OF NERN NEB. ..MEAD.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 42590049 43539935 42479694 41409727 41700012 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 04:21:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 23:21:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507210433.j6L4XSxI025362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210432 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210432 NEZ000-210530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1805 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210432Z - 210530Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING TO THE S AND SW OF WW 653. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TRAILING PORTIONS OF NERN NEB MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH ODX TO N OF LBF. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER GARFIELD AND VALLEY COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NOTED OVER CUSTER AND DAWSON COUNTIES. TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS AS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES SWD AND COLLIDES WITH SYNOPTIC STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL NEB ENEWD TO JUST N OF OMA AND DSM. WHILE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS COMPARABLY WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...PRESENCE OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. ..MEAD.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 41410077 41640007 41539897 41539819 41399756 40919733 40739837 40689947 40980065 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 06:06:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 01:06:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507210618.j6L6Iotp024953@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210618 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210617 IAZ000-NEZ000-210715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1806 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 653... VALID 210617Z - 210715Z CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 653 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 09Z EXPIRATION...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF NEW WW DOWNSTREAM. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...AROUND NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SOUTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...INHIBITION NOW APPEARS TOO STRONG FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG GUST FRONT SURGING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME CONFINED TO THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG/NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHERE CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGEST ASCENT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST WILL WEAKEN BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z. IF THIS OCCURS...ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY BASED AT MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...EVEN FOR PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION AT MID-LEVELS...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE APPEARS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG...WHICH MAY MAINTAIN AT LEAST RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. ..KERR.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 43159619 43399524 43479401 43139277 42799169 41849189 41369341 41279507 41609619 42229624 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 10:17:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 05:17:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211029.j6LATnrT011247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211028 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-211200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1807 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN...SW WI...ERN IA...NW IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654... VALID 211028Z - 211200Z CONTINUE WW. SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...STILL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. HOWEVER...GRAVITY WAVE IS AIDING LIFT OF MOIST POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR AS IT SURGES TOWARD THE EASTERN IOWA BORDER. DESPITE PRESENCE OF RADIATIONAL/WEAK FRONTAL INVERSION AHEAD OF BOW SHAPED CONVECTIVE LINE...EVAPORATIVE COOLING HAS BEEN AIDING DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 30 TO 50 KT JET INTO REAR OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THIS LIKELY WILL REMAIN THE CASE...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE...AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO THE LA CROSSE WI/DUBUQUE AND DAVENPORT IA AREAS BY THE 12-13Z TIME FRAME ..KERR.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43419287 44099363 44649218 43869028 42638999 41589003 41029044 40889169 41409232 42699228 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 11:17:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 06:17:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211129.j6LBTOSv030576@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211127 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-211330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1808 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN IA...CENTRAL/NRN IL...AND SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211127Z - 211330Z LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE...NOCTURNAL MCS EXTENDING AT 11Z FROM 30S MSP TO CID TO IRK WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY EWD AT 40-45KT THROUGH ERN/SERN IA INTO IL. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES SYSTEM INTO CHICAGO AND MILWAUKEE METRO AREAS BETWEEN 15-16Z. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM ONGOING MCS OVER IA/MN/NRN MO ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER AND ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER MI. MOISTURE POOLING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ALONG BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN E-W INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG CURRENTLY. ALOFT...700-500MB FLOW BENDS SEWD ACROSS WI/IL ON NERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. THIS SUGGESTS ONGOING MCS MAY GRADUALLY TURN SEWD THROUGH MID-MORNING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE CINH...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL CURRENTLY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC MESO HIGH...MODERATE WNWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MCS MAINTENENCE. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER EWD/SEWD PROGRESSION OF MCS INTO SRN WI AND NRN/CENTRAL IL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX... 41389172 42369176 42649139 42738933 42728789 41788767 40468771 39758790 39528836 39598934 39819037 40099095 40399145 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 15:16:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 10:16:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211527.j6LFRt4r012911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211527 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211527 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-211600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI...NERN IL...SRN LOWER MI AND NRN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655... VALID 211527Z - 211600Z STORMS MAY MOVE INTO LAKE MI BEFORE STORMS HAVE TIME TO INTENSIFY AND WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. HOWEVER...WW MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF LWR MI AND NRN IL. AT 15Z...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING EWD AT 30-40 KT AND EXTENDED FROM WEST OF OSH TO BETWEEN RFD AND ORD. THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...THE LINE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE STORMS WILL REINTENSIFY BEFORE THEY REACH THE LAKE. ONCE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO LAKE MI...WW WILL BE CANCELED. ..IMY.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...MKX... 41158800 42448847 43458873 43968839 42918456 40598489 40498675 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 15:19:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 10:19:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211530.j6LFUwtR014416@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211530 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211530 COR MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-211600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI...NERN IL...SRN LOWER MI AND NRN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655... VALID 211530Z - 211600Z CORRECTED TO CHANGE IL TO IN IN FIRST PARAGRAPH STORMS MAY MOVE INTO LAKE MI BEFORE STORMS HAVE TIME TO INTENSIFY AND WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. HOWEVER...WW MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF LWR MI AND NRN IN. AT 15Z...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING EWD AT 30-40 KT AND EXTENDED FROM WEST OF OSH TO BETWEEN RFD AND ORD. THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...THE LINE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE STORMS WILL REINTENSIFY BEFORE THEY REACH THE LAKE. ONCE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO LAKE MI...WW WILL BE CANCELED. ..IMY.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...MKX... 41158800 42448847 43458873 43968839 42918456 40598489 40498675 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 17:34:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 12:34:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211746.j6LHkZPi022770@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211746 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211745 VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-211945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV/MUCH OF VA...WRN/CENTRAL MD AND NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211745Z - 211945Z ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AS CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS THAT PROGRESS ESEWD THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A SLIGHT RISK/WEATHER WATCH ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MCV LOCATED OVER SWRN PA MOVING ESEWD. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN WV AND NRN VA HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AT 17Z. FARTHER EAST OVER MUCH OF MD...DEEP MOISTURE WAS NOT AS PREVALENT...AS EVIDENT BY THE 16Z ADG SOUNDING AND SFC DEWPTS THAT HAVE MIXED INTO THE 60S. HOWEVER...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WRN MD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SWLY 10-20 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. BY 21Z...MOST OF WRN AND CENTRAL MD SHOULD HAVE MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE FOR FOCUS FOR SOME LINEAR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS 25-30 KT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS/CELL MERGERS. FARTHER SOUTH...UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER SRN VA/NRN NC...BUT SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG/ AND SUBTLE FORCING AHEAD OF MCV FURTHER NORTH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 38837657 39417712 39687804 39627872 38997980 38568047 37908117 37258137 36438111 36168078 36128003 36037882 36077814 36187712 36827633 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 17:36:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 12:36:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211748.j6LHmZaS023488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211748 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211747 NDZ000-SDZ000-211915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND...WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211747Z - 211915Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY AS CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN ND AND WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ENDS UP BE GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO FAR ERN MT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE 60S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE IN THE BLACK HILLS WITH ANOTHER POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE MT/ND STATE-LINE. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING AS ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BECAUSE OF THIS...IT APPEARS INITIATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE BLACK HILLS AND WEST OF MINOT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 43630306 44050363 47330297 48030247 48060144 47830052 47270038 45310086 43600150 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 17:36:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 12:36:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211748.j6LHmgCk023561@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211746 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211745 VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-211945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV/MUCH OF VA...WRN/CENTRAL MD AND NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211745Z - 211945Z ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AS CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS THAT PROGRESS ESEWD THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A SLIGHT RISK/WEATHER WATCH ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MCV LOCATED OVER SWRN PA MOVING ESEWD. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN WV AND NRN VA HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AT 17Z. FARTHER EAST OVER MUCH OF MD...DEEP MOISTURE WAS NOT AS PREVALENT...AS EVIDENT BY THE 16Z ADG SOUNDING AND SFC DEWPTS THAT HAVE MIXED INTO THE 60S. HOWEVER...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WRN MD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SWLY 10-20 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. BY 21Z...MOST OF WRN AND CENTRAL MD SHOULD HAVE MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE FOR FOCUS FOR SOME LINEAR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS 25-30 KT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS/CELL MERGERS. FARTHER SOUTH...UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER SRN VA/NRN NC...BUT SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG/ AND SUBTLE FORCING AHEAD OF MCV FURTHER NORTH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 38837657 39417712 39687804 39627872 38997980 38568047 37908117 37258137 36438111 36168078 36128003 36037882 36077814 36187712 36827633  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 17:40:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 12:40:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211752.j6LHqYqd025880@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211748 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211747 NDZ000-SDZ000-211915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND...WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211747Z - 211915Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY AS CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN ND AND WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ENDS UP BE GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO FAR ERN MT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE 60S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE IN THE BLACK HILLS WITH ANOTHER POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE MT/ND STATE-LINE. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING AS ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BECAUSE OF THIS...IT APPEARS INITIATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE BLACK HILLS AND WEST OF MINOT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 43630306 44050363 47330297 48030247 48060144 47830052 47270038 45310086 43600150  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 19:45:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 14:45:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211957.j6LJv4Vi024041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211955 MOZ000-KSZ000-212130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211955Z - 212130Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NE KS AND NW MO. THE STORMS WILL MAY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE AIRMASS ACROSS NE KS AND NW MO IS STILL SLIGHTLY CAPPED. APPARENTLY...ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED FROM ERN IA EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS MO IS AIDING STORM INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF KANSAS CITY. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 65 TO 75 F. THE KANSAS CITY PROFILER CURRENTLY SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37539330 37739496 38329577 39149604 39549452 39749341 39089277 38159240 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 21:52:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 16:52:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507212204.j6LM4beA027164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212200 SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-212330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1815 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN ND AND WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212200Z - 212330Z THREAT OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN ND...NAMELY SLOPE AND ADAMS COUNTIES. MESOANALYSIS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN A REGION OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW SITUATED NEAR REJ. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S HAVE ALLOWED AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT REGION IS BENEATH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES...IT APPEARS THAT THE MESOSCALE...LOW-LEVEL FORCING IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO OVERCOME LARGER-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. CURRENT VWP FROM BIS INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN SLY SURFACE FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT 40-45 KTS IN THE MID-LEVELS. GIVEN DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS...AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH. HERE TOO...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...THOUGH OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP. SHOULD STORMS BECOME SUSTAINED...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS... 46160357 46800334 47110271 47020169 46080097 43080199 42800251 42860366 43180401 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 22:01:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 17:01:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507212213.j6LMDcmn030612@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212212 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-220045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1816 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AZ...SRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 212212Z - 220045Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NWRN MOGOLLON RIM REGION OVER NCENTRAL AZ WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NWRN AZ AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT...SO A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. RADAR IMAGERY FROM FGZ INDICATED CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER WRN COCONINO/YAVAPAI COUNTIES OF NCENTRAL AZ. SFC ANALYSIS SUPPORTED RADAR IMAGERY OF A DEVELOPING MESOHIGH/COLD POOL OVER CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER HIGH DESERTS OF NWRN AZ INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/SRN NEVADA WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DCAPES AROUND 1800 J/KG. GIVEN ORGANIZED COLD POOL/GUST FRONT DEVELOPING...ISOLATED DMGG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE WNW TOWARDS SFC PRESSURE TROUGH/HOTTER TEMPERATURES ALONG LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IF CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE MORE...SLIGHTLY FASTER LINE MOTION WOULD CARRY ISOLATED SVR THREAT INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AROUND 01Z. GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER 1.25 INCHES...THREAT FOR HVY RAINFALL MAY ENSUE LATER THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE LINE BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF LAS VEGAS WHICH SHOULD AID IN SLOWER FORWARD LINE MOVEMENT. ..CROSBIE/HORGAN.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF... 35591295 35151317 34981443 35561559 36251542 36661411 36271321 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 22:22:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 17:22:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507212234.j6LMYa4n005521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212233 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-220000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO E-CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656... VALID 212233Z - 220000Z THROUGH 00Z...PRIMARILY AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS FAR S-CNTRL LOWER MI...NERN IND AND POSSIBLY INTO NWRN OH. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MATURE MCS IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND AHEAD OF WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WI AND IL. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME FORWARD-PROPAGATION WITH A SHORT BOWING SEGMENT FROM ST. JOSEPH AND BRANCH COUNTIES IN SRN LOWER MI INTO LAGRANGE...STEUBEN...NOBLE AND DE KALB COUNTIES IN NERN IND. FARTHER S...GUST FRONT HAS OUTRUN REMAINING PORTION OF MCS...LEADING TO A GENERAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE TOWERS. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS SERN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN EWD PROGRESSION OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT BOWING SEGMENT. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ANY DAMAGING WIND THREAT E OF WW 656 WILL REMAIN SPATIALLY SMALL AND AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..MEAD.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... 39438960 42088670 42038378 40688373 40508424 40168606 39348705 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 22:39:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 17:39:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507212251.j6LMpc7j011277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212250 ORZ000-CAZ000-220045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL ORE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212250Z - 220045Z ONGOING TSTMS OVER SWRN ORE SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE INTO WCENTRAL ORE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL STG/ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN ORE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...AS COMPACT UPPER VORT CENTER APPROACHES THE NRN CA COAST AND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. ELEVATED CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SWRN ORE PRODUCED SUFFICIENT PRECIP TO ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN DEWPTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE LAST 2 HOURS. ALTHOUGH RENEWED HEATING SHOULD AID IN MIXING OUT MOST OF THE INCREASE IN DEWPTS THAT HAS OCCURRED...INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THE REGION BY 00Z. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF AFTERNOON...WITH 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR LIKELY. THUS ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND DMGG WINDS GIVEN HIGH TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER SWRN ORE WILL MOVE NEWD INTO CENTRAL ORE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED DMGG WINDS REMAINING POSSIBLE. GIVEN RELATIVELY LIMITED INSTABILITY...A GREATER SVR THREAT AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ..CROSBIE.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR... 43812274 43672327 43102415 42132389 41952331 42092215 42672138 42922111 43392143 43912196 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 00:12:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 19:12:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507220024.j6M0OINA010066@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220023 SDZ000-220130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1819 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657... VALID 220023Z - 220130Z APPEARS THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP S OF WW 657 BY 01Z AND A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. AS OF 0015Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES OVER PERKINS COUNTY MOVING 340/35 KTS. MODIFICATION OF 00Z RAP SOUNDING FOR HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN INFLOW AIR MASS YIELDS MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING SWWD INTO NERN BUTTE COUNTY SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE COLD POOL GENERATION...ALLOWING STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THEREFORE...THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AS SYSTEM MOVES/PROPAGATES SEWD TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. ..MEAD.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 45110324 45100017 43730051 43700359 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 00:22:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 19:22:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507220034.j6M0YIn4013233@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220032 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-220230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN IND...ERN IL AND WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656... VALID 220032Z - 220230Z CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ECENTRAL IL/WCENTRAL IND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN SVR AT LEAST THROUGH 03Z /WW 656 EXPIRATION TIME/ AND POSSIBLY SEVERE HRS BEYOND. THUS A REPLACEMENT WW THAT WOULD INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN IND INTO WRN OH APPEARS POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN. NEW CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IND WWD INTO ECENTRAL IL. REGION REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS AS MODERATE NWLY FLOW /35-40 KTS/ SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWP/S WAS PRESENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN MCV CENTERED OVER WRN MI. COUPLED WITH VERY HIGH INSTABILITY...MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG...THE SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPTS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW TO AROUND 20 KTS PER 00Z ILX SOUNDING SHOULD OFFSET THE LIMITED CINH THAT WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IF CELL MERGERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN NUMBER OVER ECENTRAL IL/WCENTRAL IND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND SEWD MOVEMENT OF AN MCS WOULD RESULT THAT WOULD TAKE SVR THREAT INTO SRN IND AND POSSIBLY SWRN OH LATER THIS EVENING AND BEYOND THE 03Z WW 656 EXPIRATION TIME. THUS A NEW WW OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS AREA PRIOR TO 03Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 41288590 40998785 40968840 40538864 39888834 39378741 39008567 39438472 39598443 40498417 40818449 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 02:05:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 21:05:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507220217.j6M2HdRg018411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220216 NDZ000-SDZ000-220345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1821 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0916 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CNTRL ND INTO WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657...658... VALID 220216Z - 220345Z THROUGH 04Z...GREATEST THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS CNTRL AND POSSIBLY SRN PORTIONS OF WW 658. AS OF 0205Z...RAP RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN INTENSE TSTM CLUSTER WITH AT LEAST ONE EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OVER SERN MEADE...NERN PENNINGTON...SRN ZIEBACH AND NRN HAAKON COUNTIES MOVING 330/30-35 KTS. IT APPEARS THAT ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT HAS STARTED TO SURGE AHEAD OF PARENT STORMS...AT LEAST ALONG WRN PORTION OF COMPLEX. INFLOW AIR MASS REMAINS WARM AND MOIST...SUGGESTING THAT CAP LIKELY HAS NOT STRENGTHENED TOO SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARY FAILURE MODE OF SYSTEM WOULD BE IF GUST FRONT CONTINUES TO OUTRUN STORM CLUSTER. GIVEN THE EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH COMPLEX AS IT MOVES ACROSS I-90. FARTHER TO THE N...SEVERAL LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS EVENING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. CURRENTLY...THE MOST INTENSE STORM IS LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELL OVER SRN SHERIDAN COUNTY ND WHICH IS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. AIR MASS ACROSS ND PORTION OF WW 657 HAS COOLED INTO THE 70S...LARGELY AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE STABILIZING BOUNDARY-LAYER. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 04Z. ..MEAD.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 47660237 47659917 45100009 45140045 43570048 43610294 45150295 45160325 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 02:56:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 21:56:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507220308.j6M38NIq003708@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220307 INZ000-ILZ000-220430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1822 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL IND AND FAR ERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 659... VALID 220307Z - 220430Z THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES WITH CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING 320/35KT THROUGH CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL IND AND FAR ERN IL. WW 659 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 22/07Z. IND 88D IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH HAS ACCELERATED SEWD DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING COLD POOL. NARROW WEAK ECHO CHANNELS INTO REAR OF STORMS AND LEADING OUTFLOW NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH STRONG FORWARD REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE...AIDED BY EXTREME SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SOUTH OF ONGOING ACTIVITY. MODERATE WNWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO HELP MAINTAIN SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX... 38548707 38378828 39188845 39908831 40188715 40438520 39968505 39148509 38838549 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 04:14:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 23:14:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507220425.j6M4PuKF030492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220425 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220425 SDZ000-220530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1823 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658... VALID 220425Z - 220530Z THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY PERSIST BEYOND 05Z...HOWEVER A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTM HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED OVER W-CNTRL JACKSON COUNTY ON WRN EDGE OF SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. CLOSE INSPECTION OF RADAR DATA SHOWS THAT ATTENDANT GUST FRONT HAS SURGED S OF THIS INTENSIFYING STORM BY 15-20 MILES. MOREOVER AMBIENT WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY-LAYER HAS SLOWLY COOLED INTO THE 70S WITH RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGESTING THAT CAP IS INTENSIFYING ACROSS INFLOW AIR MASS. WHILE THE THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY PERSIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS BEYOND 05Z...IT APPEARS THAT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED AND A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..MEAD.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 43540299 43770295 43980199 44030096 43710078 43360081 43060135 43040228 43290282 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 06:09:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 01:09:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507220621.j6M6LlIm001372@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220621 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220620 OHZ000-KYZ000-220745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OH THROUGH NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 660... VALID 220620Z - 220745Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 660. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES SEWD...AND ANOTHER WW DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING STORMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED. EARLY THIS MORNING A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SWRN OH SWWD THROUGH NRN KY MOVING SEWD AT 25 KT. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE SEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT NEXT COUPLE HOURS...SUPPORTED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE GUST FRONT SURGING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AND AS STORM MOVE SEWD...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. THESE TRENDS IN ADDITION TO THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. NEVERTHELESS...THE STRONGER STORMS WITHIN THE LINE MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..DIAL.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK... 37798640 38258502 39258427 39988449 39588354 38318372 37158533 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 16:23:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 11:23:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507221635.j6MGZ9Ac019729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221634 NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-221800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1825 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NY...NRN PA...VT...NH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221634Z - 221800Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS NY...VT...NH AND NRN PA. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NE TO SW ACROSS NRN VT...CNTRL NY INTO WRN PA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND SFC HEATING IS HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS IN NRN AND WRN NY. THE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. A MINI-SUPERCELL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 43127266 41357650 41627829 42627830 45017419 45107211 44217137 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 17:15:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 12:15:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507221727.j6MHRQeA016878@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221726 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221726 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-221900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1826 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...VA...NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221726Z - 221900Z CONVECTION IS STARTING TO INITIATE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VA AND NC. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW STRONG ASCENT MOVING INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE AS EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ANALYZED OVER NRN VA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING INTO VA FROM THE WEST. THE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE ENHANCED SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... 38288051 37668179 36588217 35558092 35907814 36957687 37937692 38587766 38657861 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 17:28:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 12:28:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507221740.j6MHer2g023013@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221739 TXZ000-221945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1827 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221739Z - 221945Z ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER ERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AND PROPAGATE SWWD INTO THE HOUSTON VICINITY. GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR. RADAR INDICATES ECHO TOPS IN EXCESS OF 55000 FT AT 1730Z. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST PRESSURE RISES WITHIN COLD POOL GENERATED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WITH STEADY PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THUS...THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN...AND ESPECIALLY IF COLD POOL BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. ..JEWELL.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30879384 29709401 29219501 29139749 30829715 31729561 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 20:18:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 15:18:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507222030.j6MKUU29006559@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222029 WYZ000-222200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1828 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222029Z - 222200Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN ERN WY OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING WWD ACROSS WRN NEB AND NWWD INTO ERN WY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 F AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2500 J/KG. CELLS HAVE INITIATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO HIGHER INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK AROUND THE UPPER-RIDGE CENTERED IN NE CO. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 30 KT ACROSS ECNTRL AND NERN WY SUGGESTING ENOUGH SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. FOR THIS REASON...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 41820464 41630541 42620607 43950671 44580686 44920529 43460435 42240413 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 22:06:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 17:06:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507222218.j6MMIVLx023110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222217 MTZ000-IDZ000-230015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1829 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID / WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222217Z - 230015Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OUT OF WA INTO NWRN ID...WITH STRONG FALLS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER NRN ID AND WRN MT. HIGHER THETA-E AIR HAS BEEN RETURNING NWD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY OVER WRN MT LAST COUPLE HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX... 44971615 46161566 47581635 48371451 48961239 46981219 45451260 45181438 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 22:11:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 17:11:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507222223.j6MMNNp6025745@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222222 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-222345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1830 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ME WWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND INTO CNTRL NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 661... VALID 222222Z - 222345Z THROUGH 00Z...GREATEST THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FROM E-CNTRL NY EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF VT/NH. ANTECEDENT TSTM ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED INTO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF GFL EWD TO S OF RUT TO JUST N OF CON. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS PERSISTING ALONG OR JUST N OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NW OF RUT EWD INTO SWRN ME WHERE INFLUX OF MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS SW OF ALB WILL ALSO REMAIN CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS COMPLEX MOVES ESEWD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY...POSSIBLY INTO WRN MA. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES OBSERVED ON AREA VWPS SHOULD SUPPORT A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING STORMS SW OF ALB. ALONG/N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...STORMS MAY TEND TO REMAIN MORE CELLULAR AND MAY PERIODICALLY EXHIBIT SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION OWING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILE. ..MEAD.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 44987408 44956903 42647156 42727646 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 23:11:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 18:11:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507222323.j6MNNJPT015543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222322 TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-230045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1831 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR AND WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222322Z - 230045Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING TSTMS THROUGH 01-03Z. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NWRN TN WITHIN HOT AND MOIST AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 2500-3500 J/KG. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS AND LOCAL VWPS INDICATE N-NE WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH ROUGHLY 20-30 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE STRONG OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. HOWEVER...IF ONGOING STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATION CHARACTERISTICS...A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED. ..MEAD.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... 36149063 36349029 36408835 36218787 35588797 35118846 35068954 35159021 35489069 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 23:53:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 18:53:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507230005.j6N05nkR028638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230004 MTZ000-WYZ000-230130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1832 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230004Z - 230130Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS NERN WY AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SUSTAINED SELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BIG HORNS HAS RECENTLY INITIATED A TSTM OVER ERN JOHNSON COUNTY. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING WITH A NW-SE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE VICINITY OF THE BIG HORNS SEWD INTO THE NEB PNHDL. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT INTO THE BLACK HILLS...SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LARGE SPATIALLY THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS GIVEN AN ANTICIPATED EWD STORM MOTION. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..MEAD.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 44130673 44760683 45140640 45270552 45100457 44360439 43590448 43220491 43120538 43390646 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 07:45:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 02:45:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507230756.j6N7uslc029592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230756 NDZ000-231000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ND INTO W CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230756Z - 231000Z ISOLATED HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ND. AT THIS TIME OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER CNTRL AND SRN ND. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHERE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE ABILITY OF STORMS TO TAP INTO THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR BELOW 3 KM. HOWEVER... DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING A 40+ KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS BASED AROUND 3 KM. LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD SERN ND WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKER MUCIN. ..DIAL.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46069921 46160180 47880163 47099703 45969675 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 14:36:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 09:36:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507231448.j6NEmLx2030769@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231447 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231447 WIZ000-MNZ000-231615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1834 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0947 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...WCNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662... VALID 231447Z - 231615Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 662 OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A NEW WW EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 1500Z AND 1530Z AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WRN WI. A WELL-ORGANIZED BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SCNTRL MN AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE CNTRL US UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE BOW IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70 F AND MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 1500 J/KG. DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOW AS SFC HEATING OCCURS THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW THE BOW TO REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO WRN WI OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A FORWARD SPEED OF 50 KT SHOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE BOW. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 45039111 44478941 43898946 43349004 43769243 44369477 45209480 45669429 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 16:45:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 11:45:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507231657.j6NGvihW014167@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231657 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231656 NDZ000-231830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1835 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231656Z - 231830Z NUMEROUS STORMS ARE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING ACROSS CNTRL ND. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL ND WITH 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD ACROSS THE REGION. ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...A CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. AS A RESULT...THE CONVECTION IN CNTRL ND WITH ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS SWRN ND AND SERN MT. THE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM INITIATION WITH THE STORMS GRADUALLY BECOMING CLOSER TO SFC-BASED AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM SHOULD RESULT IN A HAIL THREAT. AS THE STORMS BECOME ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SFC...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48829761 47359698 46449786 46390020 47200135 48770038 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 16:56:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 11:56:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507231708.j6NH8UqY018345@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231708 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231707 ARZ000-OKZ000-231900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1836 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231707Z - 231900Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WRN AR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. MORNING SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA INDICATE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...FROM 6.5 TO 7.5 C/KM. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL THUS BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW PULSE SEVERE. GIVEN WEAK ELY FLOW AROUND SRN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE...STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY WWD...AND MAY MOVE INTO ERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..JEWELL.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... 36189323 35849287 34969279 34369327 34239424 34649538 35259588 35659574 36249442 36389363 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 16:59:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 11:59:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507231711.j6NHBjkj019704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231710 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231710 COR ARZ000-OKZ000-231900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1836 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AR / ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231710Z - 231900Z CORRECTED FOR LOCATION HEADER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WRN AR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. MORNING SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA INDICATE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...FROM 6.5 TO 7.5 C/KM. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL THUS BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW PULSE SEVERE. GIVEN WEAK ELY FLOW AROUND SRN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE...STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY WWD...AND MAY MOVE INTO ERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..JEWELL.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... 36189323 35849287 34969279 34369327 34239424 34649538 35259588 35659574 36249442 36389363 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 17:13:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 12:13:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507231725.j6NHPMF7024797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231724 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231724 WIZ000-MNZ000-231900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1837 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN/SRN AND CNTR WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663... VALID 231724Z - 231900Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS A BOW ECHO MOVES THROUGH THE ERN PART OF WW 663. THE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO CNTRL WI AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF THE CURRENT WW. A BOWING MCS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WRN WI AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS NRN MN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT IN PLACE FROM SE MN EXTENDING SSEWD INTO NRN IL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. AS THE BOW ECHO MOVES ESEWD AT 50 KT...THE FORWARD SPEED COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SHOULD MAINTAIN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME MARGINAL ACROSS ERN WI WHERE INSTABILITY WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY. ..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 43008825 44159220 45479187 44298767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 04:17:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 23:17:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507240429.j6O4TfZV017024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232149 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI THRU NERN IL INTO NWRN INDIANA... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 665...666... VALID 232149Z - 232315Z LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS DERECHO CONTINUES TO MOVE SSEWD AT 35-40 KT. DATA ALSO SHOWS WELL DEFINED PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET OVER THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PRESS FALLS CENTERED OVER THE CHICAGO IL/GARY IN AREA OF 2.4MB THE LAST TWO HOURS. THUS...WOULD EXPECT BOW ECHO SIGNATURE TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS EFFECTING THE WRN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO INTO COOK...DUPAGE...WILL AND KANKAKEE COUNTIES. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX... 42618938 42888879 43048759 42488716 41018685 40738748 40998843  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 04:17:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 23:17:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507240429.j6O4Tg9W017027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232010 ILZ000-WIZ000-232145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1838 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...NRN IL...SRN LAKE MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 664... VALID 232010Z - 232145Z A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING QUICKLY SEWD WILL LIKELY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A NEW WW IS BEING ISSUED ACROSS SERN WI AND FAR NE IL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NNWWD FROM WRN IL INTO ERN IA. A FAST MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING QUICKLY SEWD ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE...THE SHEAR WILL LIKELY HELP SUSTAIN THE LINE AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO FAR SE WI...SRN LAKE MI AND NE IL OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. CONSIDERING THE SPEED OF THE LINE IS NEAR 50 KT...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... 43338971 43918834 43418727 43028692 42048717 41668859 42278977  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 04:17:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 23:17:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507240429.j6O4Te7H017018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232010 ILZ000-WIZ000-232145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1838 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...NRN IL...SRN LAKE MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 664... VALID 232010Z - 232145Z A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING QUICKLY SEWD WILL LIKELY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A NEW WW IS BEING ISSUED ACROSS SERN WI AND FAR NE IL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NNWWD FROM WRN IL INTO ERN IA. A FAST MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING QUICKLY SEWD ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE...THE SHEAR WILL LIKELY HELP SUSTAIN THE LINE AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO FAR SE WI...SRN LAKE MI AND NE IL OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. CONSIDERING THE SPEED OF THE LINE IS NEAR 50 KT...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... 43338971 43918834 43418727 43028692 42048717 41668859 42278977  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 06:46:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 01:46:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507240658.j6O6wOOC017871@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240657 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240657 MIZ000-WIZ000-240900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1841 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...UPPER MI AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667... VALID 240657Z - 240900Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS NRN WI THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL UPPER MI. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY ALSO INCREASE OVER CNTRL AND NRN LOWER MI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL MN SEWD THROUGH N CNTRL WI. STRONGEST LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ACCOMPANYING THE 50+ KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY FROM NRN WI...WRN UPPER MI AND INTO LAKE MI WHERE ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER CAP AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES. IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR THAT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS INTO SWRN PARTS OF WW 667 IS UNLIKELY DUE TO PRESENCE OF STRONGER CAP. INSTABILITY IS WEAKER WITH ERN EXTENT INTO LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY VEER THIS MORNING...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION EWD WITH TIME. THIS SUGGESTS STRONGER STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP FARTHER EWD INTO LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. ALSO SOME OF THE STORMS WITHIN THE MCS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...DLH... 46879031 46178603 43328385 42598582 45318839 46489179 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 08:03:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 03:03:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507240815.j6O8FFJ3005994@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240814 SDZ000-240945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1842 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240814Z - 240945Z STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH SERN SD. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON. EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN SD SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB. HIGHER THETA-E AIR WITH 3000+ MU CAPE N OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP. THIS SUGGESTS PRIMARY AREA OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN N OF THE FRONT AND ALONG/BEHIND A N-S ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL IS DEEP AND STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS. STORMS ARE MOVING ENEWD AT AROUND 35 KT. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH MID LEVEL FLOW 25 TO 30 KT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 44129699 43159882 43000019 43729999 44219852 44599726 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 09:47:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 04:47:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507240959.j6O9xpju004348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240959 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240959 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-241130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1843 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN WI THROUGH LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667...668... VALID 240959Z - 241130Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667 WILL EXPIRE AT 11Z. THE SEVERE STORMS WILL HAVE MOVED SEWD BEYOND NERN WI AFTER ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND MOVING SEWD THROUGH LOWER MI AND WW 668 WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONGER STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP SWD INTO SRN LOWER MI LATER THIS MORNING...AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN WI SEWD THROUGH SWRN LOWER MI. FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR IS PRESENTLY OVER WRN AND NRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO VEER TO WLY...DESTABILIZATION INTO SRN LOWER MI IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM SRN LOWER MI INTO NWRN OH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM WITH THE ONSET OF SUNRISE. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SEWD MOVEMENT ALONG THE NW-SE ORIENTED INSTABILITY GRADIENT. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR SHOW SOME STORMS HAVE BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING WITH BOW ECHO STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB... 41208489 43738659 45728920 46328790 44598379 41608255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 10:10:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 05:10:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507241022.j6OAMqv1010609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241022 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-241145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 669... VALID 241022Z - 241145Z ...WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF WEAKENING TRENDS CONTINUE... DECAYING MCS OVER SD BEGAN AS AN INTENSE BOW ECHO...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL SEVERE WIND REPORTS INCLUDING A 61 KT GUST AT THE SFD /WINNER SD/ ASOS AROUND 09Z. NOW...LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS...AND LIGHTNING ALSO APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. COLD FRONT REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW IS NOW MOVING INTO NW IA AND NCNTRL NEB. STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR HURON ARE STRUGGLING...LIKELY BECAUSE STORMS ARE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..TAYLOR.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43489622 42649948 43959962 44789626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 14:11:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 09:11:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507241423.j6OENFmS013605@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241422 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241422 OHZ000-MIZ000-241515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1845 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0922 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI...NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 668...670... VALID 241422Z - 241515Z WW 668 HAS RECENTLY BEEN CANCELLED. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...WEST OF CLEVELAND...BY 16-18Z. BUT IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 670 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 18Z EXPIRATION. ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR/EAST OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR TRAVERSE CITY MI SOUTHWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF FINDLAY OH...BUT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD...LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY 18-19Z. STRONG MID-LEVEL WARMING APPEARS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN CAPPING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WEST OF WARM FRONT. WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME CONFINED TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND AREAS TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE. THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL BE BASED AT MID-LEVELS...WITH SEVERE THREAT MOSTLY LIMITED TO ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..KERR.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...DTX...APX...GRR... 44648444 44598328 43188096 41858078 40988087 40328198 40898338 41778384 43098455 43898480 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 15:22:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 10:22:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507241534.j6OFY5rb000966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241533 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-241730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1846 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB...SE SD...NRN IA...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241533Z - 241730Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. SURFACE FEATURES ARE WEAK...WITH LITTLE READILY EVIDENT LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...WEAK IMPULSE MIGRATING AROUND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID/ UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR HURON SD INTO THE VICINITY OF AINSWORTH NEB. ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS BASED ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION...BUT WITH CONTINUED HEATING/WEAKENING INHIBITION...MODELS SUGGEST STORMS LIKELY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER BY THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 2000...AND MAY INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG THROUGH PEAK HEATING...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS IN STORM CLUSTERS. THIS MAY BE ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE FLOW EAST OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41930045 42509972 43359889 43889766 44199539 44539310 44079216 42789178 42519473 41749837 41110071 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 19:04:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 14:04:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507241916.j6OJGRDw008420@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241915 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241914 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-242115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1847 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN ND / NWRN SD / EXTREME NERN WY AND SERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241914Z - 242115Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FIELD INCREASING WITH ISOLATED STORMS NOW OVER SWRN ND WITHIN WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK WIND PROFILES BELOW 500 MB SUGGEST RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED STORMS WITH MAXIMUM HAIL DIAMETERS UP TO 1.50 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN DECREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP MIXING LAYERS...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. ..JEWELL.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 45690018 43830137 43860387 45450469 46430424 46770378 47090201 47160061 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 19:19:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 14:19:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507241931.j6OJVl8x012840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241930 COR SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-242115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1847 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN ND / NWRN SD / EXTREME NERN WY AND SERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241930Z - 242115Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FIELD INCREASING WITH ISOLATED STORMS NOW OVER SWRN ND WITHIN WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK WIND PROFILES BELOW 500 MB SUGGEST RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED STORMS WITH MAXIMUM HAIL DIAMETERS UP TO 1.50 INCHES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER TODAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. GIVEN DECREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP MIXING LAYERS...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. ..JEWELL.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 45690018 43830137 43860387 45450469 46430424 46770378 47090201 47160061 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 20:35:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 15:35:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507242047.j6OKll99000940@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242046 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-242245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1848 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI...PARTS OF NRN IND AND NW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242046Z - 242245Z CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. WITH PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT...SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE SURGED INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY CLIMBED INTO THE 90S...CONTRIBUTING TO EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING AROUND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CAPPING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME IS UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH COULD AID INITIATION OF STORMS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...IN BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME PERSISTS AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS...WHICH COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 22-00Z. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY EAST OF LANSING...AND WEST/NORTHWEST OF DETROIT...POSSIBLY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN INDIANA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO. ..KERR.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41868242 41388337 41328562 42188585 43358549 44088460 44178350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 20:59:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 15:59:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507242111.j6OLBDvQ007444@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242110 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242110 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-242245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1849 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NRN AND CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242110Z - 242245Z STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED FOR HAIL AND WIND. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WI ACROSS IA AND NEBRASKA...COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL OCCUR. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS ERODED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DUE TO INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL JET...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN NEBRASKA. THUS...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN WEAK...INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW HELICITY TO INCREASE...WITH WIND PROFILES/HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING VERY SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS BY EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NEBRASKA. ..JEWELL.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 43229540 43299346 43379229 43329158 42259111 41979338 41319623 40589853 40629911 41360030 41920048 42180027 42699955 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 23:15:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 18:15:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507242327.j6ONRqGR012924@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242327 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242326 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1850 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242326Z - 250030Z STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY SLOWLY SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD INTO PORTIONS OF NERN IA AND SWRN WI...EAST OF WW 672. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH SRN WI AND NRN IA. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE FRONT NEAR MCW. EVEN THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WLY...WINDS ARE NOT THAT STRONG SO STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE EWD. ALSO...STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL IA ALONG THE FRONT ARE BACKBUILDING WWD INTO THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND THIS WILL SLOW THE EWD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK ACROSS NERN IA/SRN WI...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY...IF STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF CURRENT WW...A NEW WW LIKELY WOULD BE NEEDED. ..IMY.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43419258 43418957 43018948 42299043 42169223 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 00:03:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 19:03:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507250015.j6P0F7gZ024790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250013 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-250215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1851 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0713 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SD / SRN ND / EXTREME SERN MT AND NERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671... VALID 250013Z - 250215Z SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS SELY LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NWWD. STORMS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO MOVE EWD OUT OF WW 671 THUS FAR BUT THIS MAY CHANGE LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTS MORE UNSTABLE AIR NWWD. IF STORMS CAN PRODUCE A COLD POOL...THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS SD GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS. ..JEWELL.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 44020232 44050520 45120414 45930393 46610396 46600106 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 01:15:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 20:15:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507250127.j6P1R7Z9010465@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250126 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1852 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...AND NRN/WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 672... VALID 250126Z - 250300Z SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW IN IA. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE OVER FOR EXTREME SERN SD...STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN NEB...AND A NEW WW IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF AREA LATER TONIGHT. A CLUSTER OF STORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE WW...BASICALLY W AND N OF ALO. THESE STORMS SEEM TO HAVE DEVELOPED A WEAK COLD POOL AND ARE PUSHING EWD. ONCE THESE STORMS MOVE EWD OUT OF THE WW...ONLY A WEAKENING SUPERCELL WAS LOCATED ABOUT 85 WNW OF DSM. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WAS VERY UNSTABLE...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE INHIBITING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN NEB. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVENING AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN NEB AND WRN IA. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG... MLCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY HAIL. ..IMY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... 41669546 41129825 42569818 43019725 42789464 43299269 42179256 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 02:42:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 21:42:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507250254.j6P2s3d2002944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250253 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-250400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0953 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW SD/NE WY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 250253Z - 250400Z ...NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SW SD/NE WY... SOME STRONGER STORMS HAVE FORMED WEST OF RAP AND ARE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF WW #671. STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH AMPLE DIRECTIONAL/DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA ATTM...WITH TIME IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. CONTINUING WAA COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE...A SMALL SVR WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SW SD AND NE WY. ..TAYLOR.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS... 42980472 44040527 43980357 44130126 43010118 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 03:18:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 22:18:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507250330.j6P3UlMx012580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250328 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-250500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1854 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA AND EXTREME ERN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250328Z - 250500Z MONITORING PORTIONS OF WRN PA AND EXTREME ERN OH FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND POSSIBLE WW LATER TONIGHT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 1-2 HOURS OVER EXTREME SWRN ONTARIO AND INTO PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-4000 J/KG...WERE FEEDING EWD FROM NWRN OH AND LOWER MI INTO THESE STORMS. DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE SSEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS THAT STRETCHED SWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN OH/WRN PA. WARM MID LEVEL WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT HAIL THREAT...BUT THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS LIKELY BEEN PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS...AND SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP A COLD POOL. ONCE A COLD POOL DEVELOPS...THE STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE STORMS SPREAD SWD. ..IMY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 41638129 42507921 41697876 40757876 39687915 39598085 39648133 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 04:00:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 23:00:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507250412.j6P4C250025779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250411 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250411 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-250515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1855 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA///EXTREME NWRN IL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673... VALID 250411Z - 250515Z SEVERE THREAT MAINLY EXISTS FOR EXTREME SWRN WI... ONE STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME SWRN WI AND WAS MOVING ENEWD AT 40-45 KT. THIS STORM HAS A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ONCE THIS STORM MOVES EWD OUT OF THE WATCH OR DISSIPATES...THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE OVER. WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLIER THAN SCHEDULED 0600Z EXPIRATION TIME. ..IMY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42309144 43199086 43238989 43108961 42618963 42378982 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 04:12:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 23:12:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507250424.j6P4Odww029098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250424 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250423 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-250530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1856 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY AND SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675... VALID 250423Z - 250530Z SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS EXTREME NERN WY AND SWRN SD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERATING ACROSS THE WW AREA AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STORM INTENSITY. ..IMY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... 44660495 44530126 42960124 43190508 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 04:34:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 23:34:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507250446.j6P4kmmT003187@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250445 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250445 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-250545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1857 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/NWRN IA AND SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674... VALID 250445Z - 250545Z ISOLATED HAIL THREAT REMAINS ACROSS WW...THOUGH GREATER THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS ERN NEB...PROVIDING STRONG LIFT OVER QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...THAT STRETCHED E-W ACROSS NERN NEB AND NRN IA. THIS LIFT WAS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WW AREA. DESPITE SOMEWHAT WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS...THE LOW LEVEL JET WAS SUPPLYING A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE STORMS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM SO ONLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT EXISTS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVE SLOWLY. THUS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM YKN TO OTG. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. ..IMY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... 44079850 44139489 42819488 42799848 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 07:28:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 02:28:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507250740.j6P7eVGW019551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250739 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-250945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1858 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NWRN SD THROUGH SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250739Z - 250945Z AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM SERN MT THROUGH SWRN ND AND NWRN SD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER STORMS MIGHT POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FROM SERN MT THROUGH SRN ND THIS MORNING CONCURRENT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD THROUGH S CNTRL MT. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER SD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM SRN ND INTO NWRN SD AS THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS SEWD THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR HAIL. ..DIAL.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 46709910 45310151 44590407 46100553 47020249 47799958 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 13:43:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 08:43:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507251355.j6PDtGre016053@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251353 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-251530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1859 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0853 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...EXTREME SRN LWR MI...NRN IND AND NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251353Z - 251530Z PLAN VIEW PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE THAT THE LLJ HAS VEERED TO WSWLY WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET IMPINGING ON THE FRONT SITUATED FROM THE CHICAGO AREA EWD INTO NRN OH. RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION HAS LIKELY BEEN THE IMPETUS FOR INCREASING TSTMS FROM NRN IL INTO NCNTRL IND SINCE 13Z. VSBL SATL SHOWS THAT THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WAS ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM RAPIDLY THROUGH EARLY AFTN ALONG/S OF THE FRONT. 12Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE/ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THEY MOVE EWD. PRESENCE OF 30-35 KTS OF FLOW IN THE 4-6KM LAYER AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO A BOW ECHO AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP/MOVE EWD FROM NRN IL/NRN IND INTO EXTREME SRN LWR MI AND NRN OH THROUGH LATE MORNING. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON. ..RACY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 40778846 41218938 42018893 42378667 42308487 42148328 41888176 41368086 40838116 40388210 40398268 40438352 40458515 40538701 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 21:29:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 16:29:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507252158.j6PLwfaU032040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252153 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-252300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1868 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0453 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEBRASKA / SWRN IA / NERN KS / FAR NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252153Z - 252300Z STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. A VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES E OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE AS 30-40 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTS. VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WITH MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT INTO KS...WITH LARGE HAIL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROBABLE FARTHER N INTO IA. ..JEWELL.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... 40439440 39599586 39459812 39589887 40249862 40759830 41979647 42429476 42129352 41189356  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 21:52:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 16:52:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507252222.j6PMM1rW008849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252221 PAZ000-WVZ000-252245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1869 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...SWRN PA...WV PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN MARYLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 679... VALID 252221Z - 252245Z BOW ECHO IS MOVING EWD AT 35 KT THROUGH ERN PORTION OF WW IN SWRN PA AND THE WV PANHANDLE/NWRN MD. SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR ERN OH...AND WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY AS BOW SHOULD MOVE SEWD OUT OF WW 679 BY 23Z...WITH SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING IN WW/S 681 AND 682. ..IMY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ... 39628051 40397999 40877974 40817891 39847944 39437962 39568033 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 22:40:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 17:40:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507252310.j6PNA03c024479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252309 VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1870 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH...WV...AND A SMALL PART OF WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 681... VALID 252309Z - 260015Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS SERN OH AND NRN HALF OF WV...BEHIND SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDED FROM NEAR HTS TO CRW TO 30 S EKN...MOVING SWD AT 30-35 KT. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENT SPEED OF LINE WOULD PUSH LEADING EDGE OF STORMS SWD OUT OF THE WW BY 01Z. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF CURRENT WW APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY AS STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS AND COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LESSEN EFFECTS OF COLD POOL. ..IMY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...ILN... 38758269 38628192 38598058 38588000 38397960 37377994 37368072 38118264 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 23:06:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 18:06:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507252335.j6PNZShn031720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252334 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252334 VAZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-260030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MD...SOUTH CENTRAL PA...NRN VA AND ERN VIRGINIA PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683... VALID 252334Z - 260030Z STORM INTENSIFICATION STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN HALF OF WW. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION FROM EARLIER BOW HAS WEAKENED AS IT HAS MOVED INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AND AT 2330Z EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM 25 SW AOO TO 40 E EKN TO 35 ENE SSU. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE WW WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 3000-4000 J/KG...WITH THE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35 KT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER STORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IF SO...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE. IF STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED EARLY. ..IMY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 39397865 39917840 39957769 38587778 37807778 37757858 37757962 38097957 38707904 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 23:28:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 18:28:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507252357.j6PNv7D0007220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252356 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-260130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1872 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN / NRN IA / WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 680...682... VALID 252356Z - 260130Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HOT AIR WITH LITTLE CIN HAS SPREAD UP TO THE MN BORDER. CELLS APPROACHING THIS AREA WHICH REMAIN CELLULAR MAY STILL PRODUCE A TORNADO...GIVEN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE THAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...AS STORMS EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING. THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING OVER SERN MN ALONG COLD FRONT / WARM FRONT INTERSECTION. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER NWRN PARTS OF WW 682 AS WELL AS WW 680 WHERE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION PREVAILS. ..JEWELL.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42458717 42469173 45549292 45508813 43218744 42448721 42459175 42679180 42659149 44549148 44529360 44139364 42969579 42569577 42679186 42459169 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 23:42:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 18:42:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507260011.j6Q0BoO6011439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260010 IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-260115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...CENTRAL AND WRN IA...EXTREME NWRN MO AND NORTH CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684... VALID 260010Z - 260115Z NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SERN NEB AND WRN IA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH 01Z WILL PERSIST WITHIN AN AREA FROM WEST OF BIE NEWD TO NEAR FOD. A FEW STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE WW ACROSS EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KS. A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER..DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S...WAS RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS IA...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG. DESPITE THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ...THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE IA STORMS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SERN NEB IS MUCH WARMER...TEMPERATURES IN MID AND UPPER 90S...THAN ACROSS IA...AND DEWPOINT SPREADS 30-35F. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SERN NEB...AND EVEN INTO EXTREME NRN KS...ARE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND STRONG MICROBURSTS...EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS ARE ONLY MOVING ENEWD AT 20 KT. ..IMY.. 07/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...TOP...GID... 39489806 40969682 41349629 42059530 42489404 41609472 40369630 39349783 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 01:40:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 20:40:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507260209.j6Q29jYC013913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260209 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-260415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1875 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...FAR SERN MN AND SRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 680...682... VALID 260209Z - 260415Z THREAT FOR SVR WILL BE OVER ACROSS SERN MN/NERN IA WW 680 BY EXPIRATION TIME /03Z/. FARTHER EAST...GREATEST SVR THREAT WILL EXIST OVER SRN WI AS BOW ECHO MOVES SEWD AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH 04Z. ECHOES TRAINING WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING NRN SAUK COUNTY ESEWD TO JUST NORTH OF MKE METRO AREA...WHERE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. BOW ECHO OVER WCENTRAL WI TO THE SOUTH OF LSE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AROUND 40 KTS AND CURRENT EXTRAPOLATED STORM MOTION WOULD TAKE THE GREATEST SVR THREAT TOWARDS MSN AREA BETWEEN 03-04Z. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BOW HEAD STRUCTURE...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE GREATER. FURTHER SW...ACROSS SWRN WI /WW 682/ AND FAR ERN PORTION OF WW 680 /NERN IA/...OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN TO MOVE EAST OF CONVECTIVE LINE. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ANOTHER WW SOUTH OF WW 682 INTO ECENTRAL IA/NRN IL WOULD NOT BE NECESSARY. ..CROSBIE.. 07/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43648768 44018879 43999055 43429162 42949234 42649243 42429178 42538790 42498741 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 01:52:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 20:52:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507260221.j6Q2L9Mm017300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260220 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-260315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1876 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0920 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...EXTREME NWRN MO...WRN/CENTRAL IA AND NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684... VALID 260220Z - 260315Z SEVERE THREAT HAS MOSTLY ENDED ACROSS NEB AND IS DECREASING ACROSS IA AND EXTREME NWRN MO...SO WW LIKELY WILL BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED WATCH EXPIRATION TIME OF 05Z. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE WW AREA AND OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAS STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE EXTREME ERN PORTION OF THE WATCH AND A LOW THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST DURING THE NEXT HOUR. ONCE THIS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN COOLED...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN NRN KS WHERE A WARMER AIR MASS EXISTS. ..IMY.. 07/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 39999644 41199545 41869448 42539378 42639260 40659485 39999550 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 06:03:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2005 01:03:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507260632.j6Q6WAE3023834@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260631 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260631 MIZ000-260800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1877 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685... VALID 260631Z - 260800Z THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER CNTRL LOWER MI NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT OVER PARTS OF SERN LOWER MI LATER THIS MORNING. A SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD INTO S CNTRL LAKE MI MOVING EWD AT 35 TO 40 KT. RESERVOIR OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER WRN AND SWRN LOWER MI WITH LESS UNSTABLE AIR PRESENT OVER ERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER....A STRONG WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST...CONTRIBUTING TO WARM ADVECTION AND EWD DESTABILIZATION NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS WITH TIME...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY FARTHER EAST INTO PARTS OF SERN LOWER MI. KINEMATIC PROFILES AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 07/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 42428414 43428433 44168372 43678289 42768265 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 08:05:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2005 03:05:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507260834.j6Q8Y8OA030420@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260833 MIZ000-261000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0333 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SERN LOWER MI- CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685... VALID 260833Z - 261000Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST OVER CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE E OF WW 685 AND INTO NRN PARTS OF SERN LOWER MI. WW 685 WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEARED FROM THE W AS STORMS SHIFT EWD. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST AS STORMS MOVE INTO SERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW. THIS MORNING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD INTO SWRN MI MOVING EWD AT 40 TO 45 KT. INSTABILITY REMAINS INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH ERN EXTENT INTO SERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING A 50 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS RESULTED IN SOME EWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME...AND STORMS MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN SOME OF THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUE EWD. THE STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILES AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS WILL POSE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE EWD. HOWEVER...THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO SERN LOWER MI MAY SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS. ..DIAL.. 07/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX... 42508387 43368417 44168372 43708270 42718269 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 21:31:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2005 16:31:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507262200.j6QM0V3o023156@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262159 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-262300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL ACROSS NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 686... VALID 262159Z - 262300Z WW 686 EXPIRES AT 23Z AND A REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY FROM S OF MMO TO S OF PIA...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 50-55 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. MOVING INTO NWRN IL. MEANWHILE...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM S OF SBN TO NEAR LOCATION OF AFOREMENTIONED STORMS OVER IL TO NEAR SZL. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO IN PROGRESS ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND FROM 40 SW SBN TO 35 WSW TOL. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF COLD FRONT REMAINS HOT AND MOIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG. INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX FROM THE W...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... 40508900 41298826 41828624 41868234 38788903 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 22:48:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2005 17:48:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507262317.j6QNHUFw017720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262316 PAZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-270045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1885 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN PA...POSSIBLY INTO MD/WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262316Z - 270045Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF WW/S 687 AND 689 BY 00Z AND A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED. A BOWING STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED THIS EVENING FROM E OF ROC TO E OF BFD TO S OF FKL WITH A SYSTEM MOTION OF 325/35 KTS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR PIT WITH MORE OF A ESEWD MOTION. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG...OWING TO HOT AND MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS. GIVEN THAT AFOREMENTIONED BOW HAS ESTABLISHED AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL...SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING S OF WW/S 687 AND 689 BY 00Z. ..MEAD.. 07/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 39597982 40097967 41107755 41447619 41237517 40007522 39277712 38837880 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 15:27:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 10:27:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507271556.j6RFuoHF011697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271556 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271555 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-271800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1888 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND/ERN NY SWD INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271555Z - 271800Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18-20Z FROM ERN NY SWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS/DELMARVA REGION. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING NEWD ACROSS OH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OH VLY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. THOUGH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION...A LEE-TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN NY SWD INTO ERN VA. AIR MASS VCNTY THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE OWING TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARM /MINUS 4-6C AT H5/...BUT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARRIVES...TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INITIAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM OVER CNTRL PA/ERN NY EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH LATER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH FROM SCNTRL/SERN PA SWD INTO ERN VA. MODEST WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PROMOTE A SLOW EVOLUTION INTO SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...THOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. ONE OR MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE REGION. ..RACY.. 07/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 38597569 37937635 37577706 37807787 38327865 39297919 40207880 41077782 41807612 42617514 43357408 43727362 43857266 43627199 42897205 42047265 41307321 40187419 39417510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 18:25:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 13:25:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507271854.j6RIs5fV003109@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271852 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-272045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1889 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/FAR NE SD/NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271852Z - 272045Z THREAT FOR ISOLD/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SE ND/FAR NE SD INTO NRN MN. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. AIDED BY SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSES PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INVOF COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT FROM SE ND/FAR NE SD INTO NW/NCNTRL MN. IN SPITE OF MARGINAL BUOYANCY PER 12Z RAOBS/RUC SOUNDINGS...MODEST HEATING AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16C TO -18C AT 500 MB/ COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION TO PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS...MODERATE/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES MAY ALSO SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS...REFERENCE 30-35 KT 2-6 KM WLYS IN GRAND FORKS WSR-88D VWP. ..GUYER.. 07/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 48639493 48669404 48329238 47619237 45969455 45189819 46029941 46809958 47669713 48219591 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 18:40:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 13:40:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507271909.j6RJ9IWi010955@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271908 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-272115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1890 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND AND ERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 692... VALID 271908Z - 272115Z 18Z ALBANY SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THE WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2330 J/KG AND NO INHIBITION. PRIMARY CONVERGENCE AXIS REMAINS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH SITUATED FROM CNTRL NH ACROSS SRN VT AND INTO NERN PA. TSTMS REMAIN COINCIDENT WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT OTHER STORMS WILL FORM FARTHER E ACROSS NRN NJ...SERN NY...NWRN CT AND WRN MA THROUGH 20Z. THE ALBANY SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL...BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AND ERN NY...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND. TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MAY EVOLVE INTO SMALL LEWPS/BOWS AS THEY HEAD EWD INTO SRN NH...CNTRL/WRN MA...CT AND THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA THROUGH LATE AFTN/EVE. ..RACY.. 07/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... 41717555 45067181 44386889 40637242 41107365 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 19:07:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 14:07:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507271937.j6RJb37M024961@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271935 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-272130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1891 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 693... VALID 271935Z - 272130Z LATEST VWP PLOTS AND THE 18Z ABERDEEN MARYLAND SOUNDING INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR/H5 FLOW EXIST N OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. BUT...THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND ALMOST NON-EXISTENT INHIBITION OVER ALL OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. VSBL SATELLITE SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THE CU FIELD ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/VCNTY SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES IS BEGINNING TO SPROUT AND TSTM INITIATION IS LIKELY FROM SCNTRL PA SWD INTO WRN VA BY 20Z. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM CONVECTION WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST MAY AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ACROSS ERN PA AND NJ MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. FARTHER S...DESPITE WEAKER WIND FIELDS...THE WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME AND LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS TO BOW...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE HARRISBURG AND BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AREAS BETWEEN 21-23Z. ..RACY.. 07/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 38057973 40837708 40757333 37937605 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 21:14:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 16:14:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507272143.j6RLhMGd021588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272142 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272142 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-272315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1892 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0442 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CT...MA...ME...NH...NJ...NY...PA...RI...VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 692... VALID 272142Z - 272315Z BROKEN PREFRONTAL LINE OF INTENSE STORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF STRONG/SEVERE CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE OVER HARTFORD COUNTY CT AND WORCESTER COUNTY MA. LARGE SCALE FRONTAL FORCING SPREADING EAST INTO THE AXIS OF HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FROM NRN NJ NEWD TO EXTREME SERN NH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 07/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 40957206 40967535 43007312 44367132 44386885 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 21:17:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 16:17:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507272146.j6RLkEq6022868@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272144 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-272345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR/FAR NRN LA INTO NW MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 272144Z - 272345Z ISOLD PULSE-TYPE DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 2 IN/HR CAN BE EXPECTED. PERSISTENT COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESSIVELY EVOLVE ACROSS SW AR AT THIS TIME. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING INVOF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOL/MCV EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FURTHER FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/EWD EXPANSION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN AR/FAR NRN LA INTO NW MS. DOWNSTREAM AMBIENT AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR/SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES OF 2 IN/HR CAN BE EXPECTED. ..GUYER.. 07/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33969320 34259271 34889170 34788935 34158920 33349022 32439323 32389424 33279439 33689369 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 22:04:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 17:04:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507272233.j6RMXqdB008800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272232 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-280000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1894 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0532 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DC...DE...MD...NJ...PA...VA...WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 693... VALID 272232Z - 280000Z PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING ALONG A SW-NE AXIS FROM CHO THROUGH DCA TO EWR/NYC. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE CURRENT SPEED OF THE LINE...EAST AT 30KT...WOULD BRING THE LINE TO COASTAL NJ AROUND 0100Z. FARTHER SOUTH...THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS MOST OF NRN AND CNTRL CHESAPEAKE BAY BETWEEN 0100Z AND 0300Z. ..CARBIN.. 07/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 37937587 37907947 38917746 40257575 40917404 40937292 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 23:02:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 18:02:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507272331.j6RNVNGA026854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272330 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-280000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1895 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CT...MA...ME...NH...NJ...NY...NJ...NY...PA...RI...VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 692... VALID 272330Z - 280000Z DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS STORMS INGEST COOLER AND MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR MASS NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND WATCH 692 WILL EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 07/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX... 40897208 40977376 43037114 43617008 43526972 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 20:19:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 15:19:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507282048.j6SKmgVn013687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282047 WIZ000-MNZ000-282245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE/SCNTRL MN AND WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282047Z - 282245Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS SE MN/WRN WI. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. TSTMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS NW WI ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WHERE CU FIELD IS ALREADY AGITATED...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SCNTRL/SE MN AND WCNTRL WI. ALTHOUGH OVERALL BUOYANCY IS MARGINAL PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS/TAMDAR DATA...MODEST INSOLATION/HEATING COMBINED WITH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12C TO -16C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. RELATIVELY STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL AMBIENT WIND FIELDS PER BLUE RIVER WI PROFILER/AREA WSR-88D VWPS WILL LEAD TO ORGANIZED/SE MOVING MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 07/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43759444 44329429 45299279 45809017 45468977 44688981 43709112 43549342 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 22:37:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 17:37:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507282306.j6SN6o62009683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282306 NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-290100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0606 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD AND WRN/CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282306Z - 290100Z SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM FAR SE MT/FAR NE WY/WRN SD INTO WRN/NCNTRL NEB. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WATCH. HIGH BASED TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM FAR SE MT/FAR NE WY/WRN SD INTO WRN/NCNTRL NEB INVOF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY UNCAPPED ATTRIBUTABLE TO AMPLE SFC HEATING AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...MAXIMIZED ACROSS SW SD/WRN NEB. MERRIMAN NEB PROFILER FEATURES DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS STORMS PROPAGATE SEWD. THE DEGREE OF SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY/VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WHILE RELATIVELY DRY/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..GUYER.. 07/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 46080431 44860260 41969821 40919886 40910069 41640276 43460460 45360491 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 23:57:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 18:57:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507290026.j6T0QRkl003976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290024 NCZ000-290200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1898 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290024Z - 290200Z A NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HIGH WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE NC PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. AN ARC OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING NEWD AT 25-30KT FROM ALEXANDER COUNTY TO DAVIDSON COUNTY TO MONTGOMERY COUNTY NC THIS EVENING. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS UNDERGONE UPSCALE ORGANIZATION ALONG A DEEPENING CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOL FROM LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ORIGINALLY INITIATING OVER THE CLT AREA. WHILE RECENT VIL TRENDS WOULD INDICATE A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN INTENSITY ALONG THE LINE...SUFFICIENT DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE INT/GSO AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTING THE LINE SOUTH OF ASHEBORO. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE/INFLOW INTO THIS PART OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD ENHANCE STORM INTENSITY THIS AREA. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AND MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE RDU AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..CARBIN.. 07/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP... 35437872 35257989 35868023 35988142 36408111 36438019 36377912 36217856 35937841 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 07:08:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 02:08:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507290737.j6T7b0OQ032685@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290736 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290736Z - 290900Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO WW IS ANTICIPATED. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OVER PORTIONS OF SERN SD...NAMELY MCCOOK SEWD INTO TURNER AND UNION COUNTIES. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG ERN EDGE OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WAA OCCURRING N OF STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WHICH STRETCHES FROM N-CNTRL NEB EWD ACROSS NRN IA. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW FIELDS INDICATE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN AN AXIS FROM NWRN SD SEWD INTO NWRN IA. CORRESPONDING VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS NEAR THE LIFTED PARCEL LEVEL INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. STORMS OVER SERN SD MAY TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY MOVE SEWD OUT OF REGION OF STRONGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR. STRONGER UPSTREAM FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL SD...WHERE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 07/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 44790247 45050135 43699569 42539542 42139632 42899978 43350163 43870249 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 17:30:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 12:30:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507291759.j6THxEaS006432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291758 SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-291930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN GA...CNTRL/ERN SC...FL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 291758Z - 291930Z ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...IS WARMING INTO THE 90S...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THUS...DESPITE WEAKLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...POSSIBLY SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL... IN STRONGER STORMS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR OUTFLOWS/SEA BREEZES...PERHAPS SURFACE FRONT...SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AND BEYOND THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. ..KERR.. 07/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 32918449 33328307 33548176 33918090 34388011 34007940 33287961 32648065 32058140 31028165 30068162 29098126 28688094 27698054 26688090 25838082 26088142 26828182 27528201 28228217 28988247 30258330 30458435 30318473 30908525 31618459 32388454 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 22:22:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 17:22:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507292251.j6TMpMGi000711@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292250 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292250 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-300115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1901 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CA...AZ...NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292250Z - 300115Z STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH WINDS... HAIL... AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY. A WATCH IS NOT IMMINENT BASED ON SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND RANDOM NATURE OF ONGOING CONVECTION. VIGOROUS MULTICELLULAR STORMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN CA AND NRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK ELY WAVE WAS TRANSLATING WNWWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE DESERTS OF SRN AZ. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY REVEALS A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/SHEAR ZONE. AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE BENEATH THIS WEAK SHEAR AXIS AND THIS COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND/OR SUSTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION DRIFTING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING ELY WAVE COMPLEX COULD ENHANCE BOTH DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD RESULT IN HIGH WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST OVER PARTS OF SW AZ ALONG I-8 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MORE ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL FROM BLYTHE NWD TO LAKE HAVASU CITY TO KINGMAN THROUGH THE EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 07/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 32131319 33621538 34161574 35041613 35661565 36111538 36251448 36021371 34721301 34341248 33831172 33341135 32591146 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 18:44:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 13:44:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507301913.j6UJDZws023360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301912 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-302145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR SRN CA AND FAR SRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 301912Z - 302145Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE IMPERIAL VALLEY OF CA AND THE ADJACENT MTNS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOTION OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...EXTENDS NNNWD FROM GULF OF CA INTO THE IMPERIAL VALLEY OF CA AND ERN SLOPES OF THE COASTAL RANGES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE NWD INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT AND FAR SRN NV. AT 19Z...STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SRN CA. CONTINUED INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE DURING THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING. SYNOPTIC-FORCING IS NOT STRONG...HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES OF SRN CA AT 19Z...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR DESERTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...WITH SFC-6KM VALUES RANGING FROM 10-20KT. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL EXHIBIT PULSE CHARACTERISTICS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 2.0" IN THE IMPERIAL VALLEY...AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. ..BANACOS.. 07/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX... 32681653 32971676 33571697 33721718 34201754 34611786 35251798 35741770 35991705 36301628 36621588 36501521 35951474 35091460 34301454 33631462 33321473 32781471 32711521 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 19:39:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 14:39:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507302008.j6UK8Dkq009494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302007 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-302200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE MN...NRN WI...INTO PARTS OF WRN UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302007Z - 302200Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. WARM ADVECTION REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS SUGGESTS THIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED WHERE LOW-LEVEL JET INTERSECTS DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING...AND WITH FURTHER HEATING/MOISTURE ADVECTION...MIXED LAYER CAPE SEEMS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHORTLY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO STRENGTH OF CAPPING...BUT INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AS EARLY AS THE 30/22-31/00Z TIME FRAME. THIS MAY BE AIDED BY INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES PROGRESSING THROUGH MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...AND SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS... PRIMARILY WITH A LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT. ..KERR.. 07/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46089272 46579306 47149313 46929204 46909062 46648921 46168796 45268791 44658842 44598944 44919114 45489217 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 20:09:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 15:09:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507302038.j6UKcB0g018608@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302036 NDZ000-302230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1904 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302036Z - 302230Z UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING STRENGTH OF INHIBITION EXIST...BUT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW. IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING CAP SOUTH AND EAST OF BROAD/WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TOWARD 100F ACROSS THIS REGION...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME DEEPLY MIXED...WITH MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARS TO BE FORMING WEST/SOUTH OF BISMARCK...AND...AS THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD IN FAVORABLE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...THIS COULD BE FAIRLY RAPID...WITH MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. ..KERR.. 07/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48550145 48819992 47749841 46789767 46179961 46990074 47610142 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 22:45:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 17:45:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507302314.j6UNEJWd028033@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302313 SDZ000-310115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302313Z - 310115Z ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO W-CENTRAL SD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOCALIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED NATURE OF THREAT SUGGESTS THAT WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED IN THIS AREA. AT 30/23Z...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSWWD FROM WEAK CYCLONE CENTER /1010MB/ NEAR BIS INTO W-CENTRAL NEB. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME DEEPLY-MIXED ACROSS MUCH OF SD ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ROUGHLY DRY ADIABATIC. THIS HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA WHERE MUCH OF THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN FOCUSED DURING THE PAST HOUR. RAPID CITY VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 40F SUGGEST LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNDRAFTS FROM THESE STORMS AS THEY TRACK ESEWD AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST CORES...HOWEVER...LOW DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH FOR MUCH SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION FROM THESE CELLS. WEAK SYNOPTIC SUPPORT SUGGESTS SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO COOL. ..BANACOS.. 07/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 43150243 43480328 44000388 44450398 44910378 45100318 45170231 45110096 45110006 44879984 44379962 43819946 43559966 43400023 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 05:44:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 00:44:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507310613.j6V6DDN9025307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310612 MNZ000-310745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1906 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310612Z - 310745Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW OVER NERN ND /APPROXIMATELY 60 NE DVL/ WITH ATTENDANT WAVY WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM SURFACE LOW ACROSS FAR SERN MANITOBA AND THEN GENERALLY SEWD THROUGH NERN MN INTO NWRN WI. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS 50-60 WNW RRT HAVE STARTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP MORE SEWD OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR WITH EXTRAPOLATION PLACING LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS TO INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 07Z. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS S OF WARM FRONT INDICATE THAT AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY. CURRENT GRAND FORKS AND DULUTH VWPS INDICATE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT A SUSTAINED AND ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MN. ..MEAD.. 07/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 48979711 48989516 48519276 47899257 47589341 47409441 47739535 48459693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 08:18:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 03:18:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507310846.j6V8kqia031000@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310846 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310846 MNZ000-310945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1907 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 694... VALID 310846Z - 310945Z ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND WW 694 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT TSTMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR. RELATIVELY STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS WW AREA MAY WELL BE INHIBITING STRONG CIRCULATIONS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT/COLD POOL...WITH A RESULTANT DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY. SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 694 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..MEAD.. 07/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 49129432 48969275 47499284 47739580 48509574 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 23:33:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 18:33:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508010001.j7101k08015927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010000 AZZ000-010200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1908 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010000Z - 010200Z DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PHOENIX METRO AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LOCALIZED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE. AT 2350Z...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER THAT FORMED ACROSS THE SERN AZ MTNS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WNWWD TOWARD THE LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS/BASINS OF S-CENTRAL AZ. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 100F AROUND PHX...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF STORMS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT GUST FRONT AND A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE PHX METRO AREA THROUGH 0130Z. REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE S-CENTRAL AZ/MEXICO BORDER...MAY ALSO BE AIDING LOW-LEVEL SELY STEERING FLOW AND MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD PHX. LEADING GUST FRONT EMANATING FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOVING WWD AT AROUND 30 KT. EVAPORATIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE INTO DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 40F. THIS MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PHX METRO AREA THROUGH 0130Z. ..BANACOS.. 08/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... 33701237 33841205 33841168 33661141 33381111 33151107 32961107 32731131 32711172 32751203 32951235 33141250 33411252 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 00:42:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 19:42:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507010053.j610reUw021362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010052 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-010215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 563... VALID 010052Z - 010215Z ...MAIN THREAT WITH WW 563 WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME ERN KS/WRN MO... LONG LIVED SUPERCELL TSTM NOW ENTERING NEOSHO/ALLEN COUNTIES IN EXTREME ERN KS /NEAR CHANUTE/ WILL LIKELY TRACK ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS SCNTRL PORTIONS OF MO. THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE. LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM LOCAL RADARS SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL ROTATION PERSISTS WITH THIS STORM...AND SO LARGEST SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN MO. STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A SMALL MCS ACROSS SCNTRL MO...AND FOR THE MOST PART ARE MOVING OUT OF THE WATCH. 00Z SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD SHOWS FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH...COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WILL SUPPORT STORM LONGEVITY THROUGH THE EVENING. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT. MEANWHILE THE EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 36539228 37089567 38379564 37869230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 02:59:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 21:59:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507010311.j613B3OD013020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010309 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-010445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1564 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SWRN OK / SERN IN / NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567... VALID 010309Z - 010445Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WW...THOUGH CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. BOWING LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN AND INTO CENTRAL OH ATTM. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL OH...LIKELY DUE TO MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OH IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT NOW EXISTS ACROSS FAR SERN IN / SWRN OH / NRN KY...WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN QUARTER OF WW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THIS WW PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 01/07Z EXPIRATION. ..GOSS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND... 40598278 40478242 39238278 38558300 38618493 38758541 39288542 39708478 39828423 39738340 40158298 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 03:34:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 22:34:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507010345.j613jWqI027425@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010342 TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-010515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS/SW MO/NRN AR/FAR NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568... VALID 010342Z - 010515Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568 CONTINUES UNTIL 09Z. PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINS LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CURRENTLY ONGOING IMMEDIATELY N/NE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM SE KS INTO NRN AR...WITH MOST ROBUST TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ALONG A EMPORIA KS-CHANUTE KS-JOPLIN MO CORRIDOR INTO THE HARRISON AR-FAYETTEVILLE AR VICINITIES THROUGH 06Z. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN COMMON GIVEN STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR NORTH OF BOUNDARY AND PRIMARILY ELEVATED INSTABILITY -- MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL...FAVORING THE AFOREMENTIONED CNU-JLN-FYV-HRO CORRIDOR GIVEN PROPAGATION OF MESOSCALE COLD POOLS AMIDST RELATIVELY SHALLOWER SURFACE STABLE LAYER. ..GUYER.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 38509702 38649639 38349422 37689326 37329274 36599131 36848957 35668996 35349124 35759421 36659494 37169617 37599699 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 04:22:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 23:22:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507010433.j614XKUb015004@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010432 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010432 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-010630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO/SW KS INTO THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010432Z - 010630Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL LIKELY TO DEVELOP/SHIFT SEWD OVERNIGHT INTO SW KS AND THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES. NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SUPERCELL OVER SRN PROWERS/NRN BACA COUNTIES CO AT 0430Z -- WITH HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL/ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS -- EXPECTED TO CONTINUING TRANSITIOING SEWD INTO FAR SW KS/OK PANHANDLE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS WELL. STRONG POST-FRONTAL EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50 KTS OR GREATER WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. COMBINED WITH STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG -- PER 03Z RUC SOUNDINGS -- AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF APPROX 8.0 C/KM WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT OVERNIGHT. ..GUYER.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB... 38410265 37910149 37130035 36340028 35990187 36640271 37620335 38040322 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 06:02:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 01:02:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507010613.j616DKTM020108@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010612 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-010645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1567 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN-SERN KS/SRN MO/NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568... VALID 010612Z - 010645Z NEW WW/S BEING CONSIDERED FOR NRN OK AND NRN AR. THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW 568 ACROSS SERN KS INTO SWRN MO. 05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN OK WSWWD ACROSS NRN OK TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW IN WRN TN...STRETCHED WNWWD FROM NEAR MEM TO SOUTH OF FYV IN NWRN AR TO NERN OK. 20 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM WRN TX TO NERN OK IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MCS LOCATED OVER SERN KS/SWRN MO...WITH NEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY ALONG THE SRN/ERN PERIPHERIES OF THIS COMPLEX. STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOIST/ MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW PER LLJ WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FARTHER WNW...ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN INTO NRN OK AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AS AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN KS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SIMILAR KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO AREAS FARTHER EAST SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OK. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 38349665 38259463 37959287 37039144 36139084 35409150 35389382 35509623 35829857 36009980 36340036 37230014 37669767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 08:14:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 03:14:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507010825.j618PcuP004875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010824 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-011000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE/NRN AND WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570... VALID 010824Z - 011000Z DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AS BOW ECHO MOVES SEWD INTO NWRN/WRN OK AND PARTS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 0930Z. AT 08Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM SERN CLARK COUNTY TX SWWD TO LIPSCOMB COUNTY TX...WITH THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS LINE FROM HARPER COUNTY OK TO LIPSCOMB COUNTY TX BOWING AND TRACKING TO THE SE AT 40 KT. MEASURED WIND GUSTS PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE CLOSE TO 70 MPH IN BEAVER COUNTY OK WITH THIS BOW STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST HOUR. DOWNSTREAM MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST THIS BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NWRN AND WRN OK THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z AND REACHING CUSTER TO ALFALFA COUNTIES BY THAT TIME. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 35140032 35870108 36340098 37189983 37319758 37399667 35629671 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 09:41:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 04:41:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507010952.j619qaxw009368@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010948 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-011045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0448 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO/NRN AND CENTRAL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569... VALID 010948Z - 011045Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SERN KS/NERN OK AND ACROSS PARTS OF NRN INTO CENTRAL AR. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A SERIES OF LINE SEGMENTS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN KS TO NRN AR. MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWED A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH ONE EXTENDING FROM NRN MS WWD INTO CENTRAL AR NEAR LIT...AND A SECOND ONE EXTENDING WWD FROM CENTRAL AR TO THE S OF FSM AND INTO CENTRAL OK /CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY/. ...NRN AND CENTRAL AR... LEADING LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM LAWRENCE TO FAULKNER COUNTIES AR IS MOVING SEWD AT 35 KT...BUT LIT RADAR SHOWED THE GUST FRONT LOCATED 5-10 MILES AHEAD OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS AR SUGGESTED THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ABOVE A SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR THIS REASON...AND BECAUSE THE GUST FRONT IS OUT-RUNNING THE STRONGER STORMS...A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED. STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXTENDED FROM NWRN TO CENTRAL AR AND THEN INTO NRN MS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS OVER THIS REGION...BUT WITH A MORE ISOLATED THREAT...ESPECIALLY FROM SERN PART OF WW 569 INTO EAST CENTRAL AR. ...SERN KS AND NERN OK... REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STORMS CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS SERN KS...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM LOCATED IN NERN PORTION OF WW 570 OVER SUMNER COUNTY KS. THESE STORMS IN SERN KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... 36209669 37529669 37389493 37039467 36619439 36229259 36159138 35139100 34579130 35009265 35669455 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 09:52:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 04:52:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507011003.j61A3rPA013821@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011002 OKZ000-011030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011002Z - 011030Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL OK. GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN OK WAS LOCATED FROM KINGFISHER TO KIOWA COUNTY AND MOVING TO THE SE AT 50 KT. GIVEN UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS...THIS GUST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AT THIS SPEED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WELL EWD OF ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34759868 35529818 35919794 36049635 35599535 34709558 34239606 34559826 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 12:21:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 07:21:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507011232.j61CWG9B012538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011231 OKZ000-011330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO ERN AND SERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571... VALID 011231Z - 011330Z DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LINE OF STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO ERN/SERN OK THIS MORNING. AT 1225Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A LINE OF STORMS ORIENTED IN A BOW STRUCTURE...EXTENDING FROM CREEK TO SEMINOLE COUNTIES AND THEN SWWD TO GARVIN COUNTY. THE STRONGEST STORM ALONG THIS LINE WAS LOCATED AT THE APEX OVER POTTAWATOMIE INTO PONTOTOC COUNTIES WITH A SEWD MOVEMENT AT JUST OVER 35 KT. OKC VWP DATA SHOWED A 40 KT REAR INFLOW JET WITH THE APEX OF THE LINE...WHEN THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVED ACROSS NRN CLEVELAND COUNTY. MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWED A WNW-ESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY SEWD TO S OF MLC AND INTO WEST CENTRAL/SWRN AR...AND MOVING SWD. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN/SERN OK...EAST OF THE BOW SEGMENT...REMAINED MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDING ALONG/S OF THE WNW-ESE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS BOW ECHO IS LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED ACROSS SERN OK...PER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ON VIS IMAGERY...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASED WIND THREAT BY MID MORNING. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34599759 35249711 36209696 35649450 33869451 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 14:45:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 09:45:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507011456.j61EupST030816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011455 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011455 TXZ000-OKZ000-011600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0955 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571... VALID 011455Z - 011600Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 571 MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS...MAINLY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF WEAK WAVE ALONG CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS HEATING IN BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF OUTFLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...PROSPECTS FOR CONTINUING DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEYOND THE MID DAY HOURS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FLOW/SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE WEAK...BUT RISK OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS APPROACHING AREAS NEAR/NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. ..KERR.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34189611 34669558 33709453 33229420 32989522 32939621 32639754 33599741 33999676 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 15:39:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 10:39:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507011550.j61FotoG032724@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011549 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-011745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...CENTRAL/NRN AL...FAR NWRN GA...AND CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011549Z - 011745Z A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM MIDDLE/ERN TN SWWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL AL AND INTO ERN MS. AN ISOLATED OR LOCALIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED WITH STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THIS REGION. AT 1545Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CELLS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY DECAYING MCS OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN...NRN AL...AND ERN MS...WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM INITIATION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY INSTABILITY...AS SFC-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS. ADDITIONALLY...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LAYER EVIDENT ON JAN AND BMX SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z MAY LIMIT SRN EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE IN PLACE AT BNA /850-500MB LAPSE RATE OF 7C/KM/...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND GREATER SEVERE THREAT ALONG NRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN...NRN AL...AND FAR NWRN GA. SCATTERED PULSE TYPE STORMS...OR SMALL MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...APPEAR PROBABLE WITH BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES THROUGH AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 33578961 33968896 34668781 35588695 36008673 36598608 36578498 36558379 35888413 34988481 34218545 33508601 33158651 32878674 32778745 32708934 32759031 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 17:00:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 12:00:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507011711.j61HBL5P020749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011710 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011710 TXZ000-011915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011710Z - 011915Z ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WW IS NOT PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS OF STORMS. RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED AND STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 45W ABI TO 10SE MWL TO 50E DAL WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SWD AT AROUND 20KT THROUGH REMAINDER OF N-CENTRAL AND NERN TX DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT INTERACTS WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /100MB MLCAPE VALUES 2500-3500 J/KG/. THE RELATIVE DRY LAYER APPARENT IN 12Z FTW SOUNDING FROM 750-600MB IS LIKELY ENHANCING EVAPORATION IN DOWNDRAFTS WITH DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. WEAK LOW-LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE MODEST INFLOW AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY... HOWEVER...SFC-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KT. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOCALIZED...AND ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER CORES AS THEY PROGRESS GENERALLY SSEWD WITH MOTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...SJT... 32349905 32709805 32919695 33009618 33059550 33059476 32669430 32289412 31829422 31379471 31239613 31199746 31259839 31559913 32089931 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 17:21:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 12:21:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507011732.j61HWFhj032208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011730 VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-011830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1575 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CHAMPLAIN VLY THRU ERN NY/NE PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011730Z - 011830Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/EAST OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...EAST OF A SARANAC LAKE/BINGHAMTON LINE INTO THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND VALUES MAY APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS STILL EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ONTARIO INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT BELT OF MODERATE /30-40 KT/ CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK. AS THIS REGIME DEVELOPS EASTWARD NEXT FEW HOURS...STRENGTHENING SHEAR IN DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINE EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH BY 20-21Z. ..KERR.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 44957274 44037326 43077381 42217441 41487482 41467624 42107653 42867599 44857512 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 18:07:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 13:07:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507011818.j61IINCD027049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011817 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-012015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW SD...WRN NEB...NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011817Z - 012015Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY TOPPING CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...AND AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION IS BECOMING FOCUSED NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WHERE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG...WITH FURTHER INCREASE LIKELY THROUGH PEAK HEATING. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR NOW THROUGH 21Z NEAR/EAST OF SCOTTSBLUFF...WITH A GRADUAL SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION THEREAFTER. VEERING WIND FIELDS FROM LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO MODERATE WESTERLY WITH HEIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY IN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..KERR.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 43920344 43960247 43040159 41220071 40460096 39460302 39400405 41260384 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 19:36:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 14:36:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507011947.j61JlFvi016842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011944 TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-012145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...AND THE WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011944Z - 012145Z AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OFF THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE REGION FROM SERN CO SWD THROUGH NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLES OF TX/OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AT 1915Z INDICATES ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR TAD SSWWD TO NEAR LVS. THIS REGION LIES ON SRN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE 500MB FLOW BETWEEN THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER SRN NM/AZ AND THE BAROCLINIC WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW OVER SWRN TX AND SFC LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN MT TO ERN CO SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY /100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM INTO FAR WRN TX...AND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS CONTRIBUTING TO WNWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT. THIS SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AS UPDRAFTS MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THESE FACTORS IN ADDITION TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8C/KM/ SHOULD SUPPORT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 33910364 34090500 35450529 36000531 37640444 37610233 35710213 33840212 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 19:54:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 14:54:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507012005.j61K5K9n027958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012004 VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-012200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...VT...SWD THRU ERN PA/NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572... VALID 012004Z - 012200Z CONTINUE WW 572...NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO THE EAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST COUPLE OF HOURS EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON VALLEYS...SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE. SEA BREEZE ALSO APPEARS TO BE FOCUS FOR NEW STORMS WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF NEW YORK CITY. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST/INCREASE IN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS MOSTLY LIKELY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AREA...ON TAIL END OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE/FILL IN THROUGH THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME...POSING BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT/WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT...THEREAFTER. ..KERR.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... 44027447 45047444 45277281 44167225 42997264 41797394 41827466 43087451 43737451 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 21:49:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 16:49:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507012200.j61M0ofD024375@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012159 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-012330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...ERN PA...NJ...AND WRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572... VALID 012159Z - 012330Z ...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S... WW 572 CONTINUES ACROSS ERN/NERN NY INTO WRN/NWRN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER ERN NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH QUEBEC AND SRN PERIPHERY OF ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE FORCING. MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG EXTEND EWD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE ERN EXTENT OF SVR WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT PER ALB AND BTV VAD WIND PROFILES SUGGEST CONTINUED THREAT OF LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE CELLS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND WRN MA/CT WHERE POCKETS OF UNMODIFIED...MODERATE INSTABILITY AIR REMAIN. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THEREAFTER...REMAINING INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME LIMITED AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL WANE. SEPARATE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NJ SWWD INTO THE PHI METRO AREA WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 20-25KT. AREAS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ REMAIN ACROSS S-CENTRAL NJ AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THREAT OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER IN THIS REGION...AROUND 20KT PER DIX VAD WIND PROFILE. ORIENTATION OF CONVECTION SUGGESTS HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF BURLINGTON...OCEAN...AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING CELLS. FURTHER WEST...SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS W-CENTRAL PA JUST IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY EWD. AN ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL IS POSSIBLE... HOWEVER...DECREASING INSOLATION AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ADDITIONAL WW/S ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION GIVEN EXPECTED EVOLUTION. ..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 43757525 44507487 44927450 45007336 44957148 44417174 43157198 42597217 41187319 40527365 39917396 39597422 39457491 39547528 39727565 40237605 40957619 41757608 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 22:39:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 17:39:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507012250.j61MomIk013971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012250 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012250 MTZ000-WYZ000-020015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MT / NRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012250Z - 020015Z STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED / ISOLATED...WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REMAINS FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT ACROSS MT AND VICINITY...THOUGH LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /GENERALLY 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. ABOVE THE SURFACE...FLOW REMAINS VEERED / WLY AND THUS DOWNSLOPE. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD / SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT. HAVING SAID THAT...WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING WHICH HAS EXISTED ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD...AS VORT MAX NOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND CONTINUES EWD TOWARD MT. THIS COMBINED WITH MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS ERN MT MAY ALLOW CONVECTION NOW MOVING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. WITH 35 TO 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS EXISTS. THOUGH NEGATIVE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 46491185 47331102 47500963 47310635 46950425 45010478 43840642 44821089 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 22:52:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 17:52:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507012303.j61N3j3J019777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012302 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-020030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MT / WRN ND / NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012302Z - 020030Z THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE SLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS ATTM...WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHIFTING ACROSS ERN MT WHICH SHOULD MERGE WITH LEE TROUGH SHORTLY. AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO INCREASE WITH TIME. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ATTM...WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THUS...AS WIND FIELD INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS DEVELOPS...EXPECT THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO -- TO LIKEWISE INCREASE. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..GOSS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 49030489 49110275 48990199 47820115 45240103 44820316 45070424 45710449 47200464 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 23:14:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 18:14:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507012325.j61NPb4h028215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012324 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-020130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL NC...CENTRAL SC...AND ERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 012324Z - 020130Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR NC AND SC SWWD INTO ERN GA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WHICH INITIALLY FORMED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ERN GA. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT...AND STRONG HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS HAVE RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 3500 J/KG IN REMAINING UNMODIFIED AIR MASS IN SC/GA. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN APPALACHIANS LEE TROUGH AND MODERATE WLY SHEAR IS RESULTING IN WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ALONG CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY DURING NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH WET MICROBURSTS. LARGE STORM CLUSTER NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER MOVING EWD AT 5-10KT WILL YIELD A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BANDS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTEND NNEWD INTO CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...ALONG WITH NRN EXTENT OF MOIST AXIS WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2". WSR-88D DERIVED HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES OF AROUND 3"/HR ARE EVIDENT FROM CAE AND RDU. ..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 33738335 34228239 34878094 35588019 35397814 34687853 33917908 33248010 32838094 32588149 32588223 32598281 32668318 33028350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 23:19:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 18:19:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507012330.j61NUHvF030020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012329 KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-020100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1583 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO / WRN AND CENTRAL NEB / PARTS OF WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573... VALID 012329Z - 020100Z STORMS / SEVERE THREAT CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW...AND SHOULD SHIFT SEWD WITH TIME. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED...REPLACING WW 573 AND EXTENDING EWD INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF NEB / KS. MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHERE SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE INDICATED. WITH TIME...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL / WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF SEWD-MOVING CONVECTION. WITH 30 TO 40 KT WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS...SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS. WITH TIME...MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE...POSSIBLY LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB... 37820259 38300303 40450192 41410160 43110175 43400089 42849931 41669790 40849757 38479852 37989958 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 23:35:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 18:35:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507012346.j61NkkaZ003790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012345 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-020115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO / SWRN KS / TX AND OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012345Z - 020115Z STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE / SPREAD SEWD WITH TIME OUT OF SERN CO INTO SWRN KS AND THE TX / OK PANHANDLES. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS /1000 TO 2000 J/KG/ EXTENDS ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM..WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALONG WITH CONVECTION SHIFTING SEWD OUT OF SERN CO...NEW STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ATTM ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH TIME...MCS SHOULD EVOLVE / SHIFT SEWD TOWARD WRN OK. ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 30 KT WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. THOUGH HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS MCS DEVELOPS. ..GOSS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 38470384 38550146 38330020 36799992 34880008 34930288 36430319 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 23:42:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 18:42:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507012353.j61NrJac006859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012352 TXZ000-020115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1585 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS / WRN N TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012352Z - 020115Z STORMS ARE DEVELOPING E OF WW 574. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. LATEST RADAR / SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 50 ESE TCC /DEAF SMITH COUNTY TX/ TO NEAR ABI. AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION BENEATH 30 KT WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT THESE STORMS -- AND CONVECTION NOW MOVING SEWD OUT OF ERN NM INTO W TX -- TO CONGEAL INTO A LARGE MCS. WITH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR LONG-LIVED / SEVERE STORMS...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 07/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 34680228 34330002 33479881 31909811 31399904 32160221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 01:41:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 20:41:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507020152.j621qChH019207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020151 TXZ000-NMZ000-020315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1586 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0851 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM / PARTS OF THE TX S PLAINS INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION AND FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 574... VALID 020151Z - 020315Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN 2/3 OF WW. WHILE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING EWD OUT OF WW INTO WW 577 ATTM...STORMS PERSIST WITHIN NERN QUARTER OF WW. AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF WW REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS. THOUGH WRN FRINGE OF ONGOING STORMS LIKELY MARKS THE WRN EXTENT OF GREATEST SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS INTO ERN NM BEHIND ONGOING CONVECTION. ..GOSS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34820408 34790223 31740224 31690482 32140479 33250375 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 02:00:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 21:00:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507020211.j622B97j027197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020210 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-020315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1587 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB / NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573... VALID 020210Z - 020315Z SEVERE THREAT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF REMAINDER OF WW WITHIN THE HOUR. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PERSIST IN AND NEAR NERN PORTIONS OF WW ATTM...AS WELL AS OVER SERN PORTIONS OF WATCH IN NWRN KS. MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD SHIFT SE OF WW BY 02/03Z...THUS ENDING MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE WATCH. THEREFORE...WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..GOSS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... 42090114 42009959 40059972 39189957 38470138 38550305 39520117 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 02:10:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 21:10:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507020221.j622LPZN030282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020220 NDZ000-SDZ000-020415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1588 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0920 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 575... VALID 020220Z - 020415Z THREAT FOR SVR WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ERN PORTIONS OF WW 575 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD OUT OF WW 575 INTO CENTRAL ND...SO A NEW WW EAST OF WW 575 IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM. INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS OVER WRN ND PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER CENTRAL ND SAMPLED BY 00Z BIS SOUNDING WAS INCREASINGLY STABLE WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. THUS CONVECTION AND SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OVER WRN ND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH SVR THREAT OVER FAR WRN ND IS LIMITED ATTM... ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER ERN MT TO THE SOUTH OF GGW WAS MOVING EWD AROUND 35 KTS AND SHOULD IT SURVIVE WOULD MOVE INTO WCENTRAL ND AROUND 05Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 48990091 45910120 45880393 47980385 49000220 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 03:13:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 22:13:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507020324.j623OIVU021791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020323 TXZ000-020500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1589 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 577... VALID 020323Z - 020500Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS MUCH OF WW...THOUGH CONVECTION HAS IN GENERAL REMAINED LIMITED IN INTENSITY. CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF WW 574 / INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 577 REMAIN THE MOST VIGOROUS...THOUGH A FEW STORM SPLITS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN N CENTRAL / NERN PORTIONS OF WW WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. WITH FAVORABLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF WW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL WITH MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION PERSISTS. ..GOSS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34840201 33559910 30379912 31590206 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 03:20:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 22:20:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507020331.j623VP3j023937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020329 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-020500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO / SWRN KS / TX AND OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 576... VALID 020329Z - 020500Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW. STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING SSEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND FAR SWRN KS ATTM...ALONG AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY. WITH 25 TO 30 KT SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AT AROUND 25 KT...SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE / FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER OF STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE IF COLD POOL CAN BETTER ORGANIZE. ..GOSS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 38150382 38540240 38500140 35049983 34950233 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 06:22:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 01:22:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507020633.j626XF5L026086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020632 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-020700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1591 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX AND PARTS OF WRN AND SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 576... VALID 020632Z - 020700Z PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX AND PARTS OF WRN/SWRN OK BEING CONSIDERED FOR A NEW WW BY 07Z. 06Z SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED A CONFLUENCE ZONE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BETWEEN SPS AND ABI EXTENDING NWWD TO THE TX PANHANDLE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS NEAR/ WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONFLUENCE...WITH THE SRN MOST COMPLEX OVER THROCKMORTON TO CALLAHAN COUNTIES TX APPEARING TO BE UNDERGOING RE-ORGANIZATION INTO A POTENTIAL FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. 45 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW PER AREA VAD/WIND PROFILERS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION. COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WILL SUPPORT FORWARD MOTION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH A LEADING BOW ECHO NOW LOCATED OVER THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WAS MOVING TO THE SE AT 35-40 KT...AND PRODUCED A 45 KT WIND GUST AT GUY AT 0511Z. COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS MCS COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE INFLOW ENVIRONMENT PER 35 KT SELY LLJ AT AMA AND DEEP ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OK IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SEWD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. CONCERN EXISTS AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF TX PANHANDLE BOW AFTER ITS INTERACTION WITH ONGOING STORMS BETWEEN CDS-LTS. LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF MODERATE TO STRONG WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP PERSISTENT SSELY LLJ WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN TX WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 36970328 37000194 37970050 38039999 36789916 34719885 33529815 32849721 31789676 31059739 31820047 33310082 34180149 36040328 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 09:37:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 04:37:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507020948.j629mOG9009650@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020947 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020947 TXZ000-NMZ000-021115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1592 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN TX AND FAR ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020947Z - 021115Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY WITHIN THE LBB COUNTY WARNING AREA OF WEST TX...BUT THIS THREAT MAY EXTEND WWD INTO FAR ERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWD ACROSS WRN TX. AT 0930Z...THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM JUST E OF CDS SWWD TO JUST N OF LBB AND THEN NWWD TO THE NE OF CVS. DURING THE LAST HOUR...THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED 25 MILES TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH INDICATES THIS NEW ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED. THESE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LOCATED 50-100 MILES TO THE S AND SW FROM ERN NM TO SW TX ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. A 35-40 KT SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO WRN TX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME...AT WHICH TIME THIS LLJ SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH. UNTIL THEN...MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW AIR COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 33800326 34430336 34800306 34980211 34660122 34020073 33090058 32810075 32630212 32750297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 14:56:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 09:56:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507021507.j62F7hWS006631@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021506 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021506 LAZ000-TXZ000-021700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL TX INTO W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021506Z - 021700Z A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THIS AREA SHORTLY. BOWING SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING THRU HENDERSON COUNTY AT THIS TIME. MLCAPE S OF THIS ACTIVITY RANGES FROM 1500-3000 J/KG...AND THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING EWD ALONG THE GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRESSURE RISES OF 2.4 MB/2 HOURS BEHIND THE CLUSTER INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL COLD POOL WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SPEED/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY IS ALSO MOVING ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH WILL AID IN IT CONTINUED PROPAGATION EWD INTO W CENTRAL LA. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 31649576 32089573 32779513 32669396 32479275 32129201 31729207 31369221 31029279 31349443 31459546 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 17:50:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 12:50:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507021801.j62I16Bl014710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021758 LAZ000-TXZ000-021930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL TX AND WRN/CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578... VALID 021758Z - 021930Z CONTINUE WW. SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS W-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL LA. FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE ESEWD/25-30KT ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES OF ERN TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL LA THROUGH 02/20Z. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN ADVANCE OF MCS...WITH STRONG INSOLATION RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 90F. FURTHER...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS FAR E-CENTRAL TX TO CENTRAL LA...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUATION OF MCS. ENVIRONMENT IS NOT STRONGLY SHEARED IN THE VERTICAL...WITH SFC-6KM VALUES OF ONLY 15-20KT. THEREFORE...DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED WITH WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH STRONGER CELLS. HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS AND CONVECTIVE MODE SUGGEST LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ..BANACOS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX... 30699461 30989511 31479504 32099481 32379460 32559432 32549357 32499294 32259206 31939185 31309182 30809184 30459192 30279198 30229239 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 19:25:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 14:25:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507021936.j62JaSLj021582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021933 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021933 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-022100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CENTRAL TX...CENTRAL/ERN LA... AND SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578... VALID 021933Z - 022100Z CONTINUE WW. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR AREAS EAST WW 578...TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF ERN LA AND SRN MS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BOW ECHO ACROSS W-CENTRAL LA SWWD INTO FAR E-CENTRAL TX WILL CONTINUE ESEWD AT 25-30KT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM OF MCS...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. STRONG COLD POOL AND VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUSTAIN LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT ESEWD INTO ERN LA AND SRN MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF WW 578 AREA BY 2130Z...SUGGESTING THAT AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON. ..BANACOS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 30499474 31059404 31579336 32289304 32459275 32439200 32139001 31878941 31268948 30728967 30338996 30119036 30129131  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 19:45:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 14:45:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507021956.j62JuarO030222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021955 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021954 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-022230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SERN MT INTO SWRN ND AND NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021954Z - 022230Z MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR OR SO. ELEVATED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL MT THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ANALYSIS OF RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA SHOWING LCL'S AND LFC'S BETWEEN 6K AND 7K AGL. MLCAPE CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE WITH VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE JUST ABOVE 8C/KM AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 30-35 DEG F...THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS EXISTS WITH THESE STORMS. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW... 45260960 45760952 46180909 46770755 47040577 47120307 46240224 45330207 44800216 44340267 44780442 44950784 45000946 45260964 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 20:36:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 15:36:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507022047.j62KlDmh019722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022046 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-022315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN ND AND NERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022046Z - 022315Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY SHORTLY. AIR MASS CONTINUES RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE AREA AS MLCAPE VALUES ARE NW 3500 J/KG. BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 25 KT INTO S CENTRAL ND. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT WITH CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING ACROSS ERN ND AND LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATING THAT MLCAPE WILL BE 4500 J/KG BY 2100Z...WOULD ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY OVER S CENTRAL TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE 7.8 TO 8.5C/KM INDICATING TH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL EXISTS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ACTIVITY COULD THEN BECOME PART OF EARLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN AS 60 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK COMES ACROSS SRN MT ENHANCING UVVS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45979957 46249963 46729978 47230026 47710085 48280135 48920117 48949911 48769749 47939694 47239709 46429702 45529695 44919725 44829846 45299945 45739947 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 20:49:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 15:49:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507022100.j62L0aIc025240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022058 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-022300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1598 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...ERN CO...NWRN KS...AND FAR SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022058Z - 022300Z DRY MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BASED STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATED LOCALIZED/ISOLATED NATURE OF WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES IN CO/WY WILL TRACK GENERALLY ESEWD AT 20KT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN EXTREME SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT EXTREME EVAPORATION POTENTIAL IN DOWNDRAFTS AND LOCALIZED DRY MICROBURSTS ACROSS SERN WY/ERN CO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING EWD ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR FROM LIC TO GLD AND NEWD TOWARD MCK IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP-MIXING AND INCREASING CUMULUS CONVECTION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS FROM FAR ERN CO TO SWRN NEB MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A DRY MICROBURST OR TWO. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CAPPING FURTHER EAST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST ACTIVITY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..BANACOS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38810504 39740538 40500560 41530590 42020585 42380581 42530503 42300377 40650354 40180332 40000242 40030182 40340138 40360026 40030006 39200015 38910077 38290382 38380483 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 21:34:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 16:34:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507022145.j62LjZjY010170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022144 LAZ000-MSZ000-022315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN/SERN LA AND SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578...579... VALID 022144Z - 022315Z CONTINUE WW 578...WW 579. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS WW 578 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS BOW ECHO CONTINUES ESEWD INTO ERN/SERN LA AND SRN MS. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AT 2135Z...BOW ECHO EXTENDING FROM FRANKLIN PARISH LA TO WILKINSON COUNTY MS SWWD TO FAR SWRN LA CONTINUES TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATELY STRONG MESOSCALE COLD POOL. CURRENT LINE MOTION OF 280/30-35KT NEAR BOW APEX SHOULD MAINTAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS FAR SRN MS INTO SERN LA DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN MCS...WITH MINIMAL CINH AND 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. FORWARD SPEED OF SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE THREAT OF LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS WITH STRONGER CELLS ALONG FORWARD EDGE OF BOW ECHO. CONTINUED STABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL LA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...CONCLUDING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 578. ..BANACOS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30469305 31989236 32239211 32349178 31768934 29768941 29848984 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 22:20:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 17:20:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507022231.j62MV9gX027740@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022230 MNZ000-NDZ000-030030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022230Z - 030030Z CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER PARTS OF NRN/WRN AND CNTRL ND THIS EVENING. SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEST-EAST BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN ND HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS NWRN ND WHERE THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS SW-NE ORIENTED LEE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM CNTRL MT. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS CROSBY COUNTY IN EXTREME NWRN ND...AND A VERY INTENSE CELL WAS TRACKING ESEWD TOWARD THE BORDER FROM SERN SASKATCHEWAN...ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS INTO THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AXIS OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOCUSED ALONG THE WEST-EAST BOUNDARY MIGHT ENHANCE THE THREAT OF A TORNADO WITH ANY CELL TRACKING EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN ND AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE...SHEAR...AND FORCING ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS NERN ND AND NWRN MN MAY ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THIS REGION IF ACTIVITY BEGINS TO INCREASE/INTENSIFY. ..CARBIN.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48960394 48999677 47849659 46090089 45980372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 23:16:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 18:16:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507022327.j62NRHYF015377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022326 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-030100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT AND WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 580...581... VALID 022326Z - 030100Z INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS WAS MOVING ACROSS POWDER RIVER COUNTY WILL MOVE EAST INTO CARTER COUNTY IN SERN MT NEXT HOUR AND THEN INTO NWRN SD /SVR WATCH 581/ AFTER 02/00Z. SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND BOWING SEGMENT WAS RECENTLY MOVING AT NEAR 50KT. A FEW SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WERE NOTED WITHIN WATCH 581 ACROSS NWRN/NCNTRL SD. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS IT MOVES TOWARD GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE WATCH AREA. ..CARBIN.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW... 43029939 43030380 45070389 44830862 46370862 46590406 45880391 45839911 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 23:44:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 18:44:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507022355.j62NtYLl024465@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022354 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-030130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA AND SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579... VALID 022354Z - 030130Z CONTINUE WW 579. GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATCH AREA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT EXPECTED AS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LESSENS. AT 2344Z...SLOW MOVING BOW ECHO EXTENDING FROM 40S JAN TO 25 NW MSY TO THE S-CENTRAL LA COAST IS SHOWING SIGNS OF GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DECREASING ORGANIZATION PER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ESEWD AT 20KT. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE WITH MARINE INFLUENCE RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE MS/SERN LA COAST...AND 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD FURTHER REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS MCS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN LA AND SRN MS...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL WATCH WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. ..BANACOS.. 07/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29999128 31989023 31588849 29478827 29568975 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 01:22:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 20:22:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507030133.j631XA09024041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030131 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-030200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1603 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0831 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...FAR SRN MS AND SWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579... VALID 030131Z - 030200Z WW 579 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISORGANIZE AS IT MOVES OUT OF WW 579 ACROSS SRN MS. A BRIEF WINDOW WILL EXIST BEYOND 02Z /OUTSIDE OF WW 579/ ACROSS SRN MS AND INTO FAR SWRN AL FOR AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT AS REMNANT CONVECTIVE LINE INTERACTS AND MERGES WITH CONVECTION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN AL. OVERALL LIMITED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A NEW WW ISSUANCE. ..CROSBIE.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31658847 31748938 30638956 30208945 30318739 31548744 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 01:35:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 20:35:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507030146.j631kfa2029296@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030145 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-030345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1604 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0845 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 582...583... VALID 030145Z - 030345Z ENVIRONMENT ACROSS BOTH WATCHES 582 AND 583 REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. A LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL WITH CONTINUING TORNADIC POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE TRACKING EAST ALONG A WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ALIGNED ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER OVER ROLLETE COUNTY IN NCNTRL ND. A NEARLY STATIONARY SUPERCELL WAS LIKELY PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER OVER KITTSON COUNTY IN NWRN MN IN WATCH 583. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING ALONG WIND SHIFT/TROUGH LINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE SFC LOW TO NEAR DIK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER CNTRL AND ERN ND WILL REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...UNR... 48980309 45920319 45979890 47409877 47379453 48979457 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 02:48:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 21:48:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507030259.j632xwGO023836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030259 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030258 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-030500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0958 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... VALID 030258Z - 030500Z LONG-TRACK AND WELL-FORMED BOW ECHO COMPLEX CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD NCNTRL SD AT OVER 50KT. OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE BOW APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED BASED ON RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS MAY ONLY BE A TEMPORARY TREND AS DOWNSTREAM THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE CONVECTION. WITH 50-60KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK DIRECTED INTO THE BACK OF THE BOWING COMPLEX...AND BOWHEAD MESOLOW TAKING SHAPE WITHIN STRATIFORM RAIN REGION ACROSS NWRN SD/SWRN ND...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT A LONG-LIVED AND SEVERE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A NEW WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX...ACROSS ERN PARTS OF SD/ND WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 42960398 45910407 45949892 46809875 46769669 45939667 44069643 44199874 42989956 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 04:04:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 23:04:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507030415.j634Fcs8019593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030413 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030413 LAZ000-TXZ000-030645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030413Z - 030645Z CLUSTER OF STG-ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO A MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE HOU METRO/FAR SERN TX IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ADDITIONAL ISO SVR THREAT WILL OCCUR OVER SWRN LA ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL A MARGINAL SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED AND THUS A WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM. PALESTINE PROFILER AND FT. POLK VWP SHOWS 25-35 KTS WNWLY FLOW IN THE 4-6 KM LAYER ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN MCV OVER NERN TX. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK...BUT SELY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM UTS TO NEAR BPT TO NORTH OF LCH WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT WEAK SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WITH STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OFFSET STORM ROTATION AND THUS ONLY MARGINAL HAIL IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A SMALL MCS WHILE MOVE SEWD TOWARDS IAH/BPT AND LCH AREAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW END SVR WIND THREAT AS WELL GIVEN PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER PER THE 00Z SHV AND LCH SOUNDINGS. ..CROSBIE.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 31419558 31459618 31229647 31039656 30559625 30279601 29619537 29529439 29589365 29749267 30189240 30849395 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 04:43:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 23:43:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507030454.j634sH5t000644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030453 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-030700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1607 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 582...583... VALID 030453Z - 030700Z NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL ND AND NWRN MN LATE TONIGHT. A LARGE MCS CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS AT OVER 50KT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 582. AN WEST-EAST BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MESO LOW AND SQUALL LINE ACROSS BURLEIGH AND KIDDER COUNTIES. MESO LOW SHOULD TRACK NEAR THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. IN WATCH 583 ACROSS ERN ND AND NWRN MN...LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THAT REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS KITTSON COUNTY FOR OVER 4H...HAS FINALLY BEEN DISPLACED BY SMALL SCALE BOWING STORM MOVING OUT OF ND. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD AT 45KT INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF WATCH 583 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45910205 47600216 48520297 49000311 48969449 47409455 47379873 45969893 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 06:03:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 01:03:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507030614.j636EFQt028029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030613 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030612 MNZ000-NDZ000-030645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND INTO PARTS OF NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 583... VALID 030612Z - 030645Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON TO REPLACE WW 583. REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM BOW ECHO OVER NRN MN TO GFK AND WWD TO 20 SE DVL. MEANWHILE...STRONG BOW ECHO CONTINUED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN ND AND ERN SD AT 40-45 KT. MESO LOW ON THE NORTH END OF THIS ND/SD BOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ALONG THE NWRN MN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS. LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF 50 KT LLJ WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/N OF NWRN MN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH INSTABILITY/EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND MESO LOW TRACKING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... 47359879 48999883 49009462 48569292 47389310 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 08:17:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 03:17:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507030828.j638SIom012353@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030827 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-030900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1609 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584... VALID 030827Z - 030900Z NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF SERN SD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MN...FAR NRN IA INTO WRN WI. WELL DEFINED AND ORGANIZED COLD POOL WILL SUPPORT EWD PROPAGATION OF THE MCS NOW MOVING INTO WRN MN. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATED AN EWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOW AT 40-45 KT ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND 07Z RUC SOUNDINGS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MN. 50 KT SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO SRN AND CENTRAL MN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE BOW...WHILE 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM SD INTO MN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED MCS ORGANIZATION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE THE STABLE LAYER...WIND GUSTS AOB SEVERE LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD P0OL AND LLJ. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SRN MOST STORM AS IT TRACKS SEWD ACROSS SWRN TO SRN MN. RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATED A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE NRN PART OF THE BOW OVER THE NRN PORTION OF WW 584...WHILE THE SRN PART OF THE BOW REMAINED STRONGER AS THE LLJ IMPINGES UPON THIS REGION OF SRN MN. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE SCENARIO OF PERSISTENT AND STRONGER STORMS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SRN MN TOWARD WEST CENTRAL WI. THUS...NEW WW MAY BE ORIENTED FROM SERN SD TO WEST CENTRAL WI...WHERE STRONGER WAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 43889781 45049580 46079557 47379560 47319143 45829227 45579093 43599049 43349285 43259481 43129636 43199789 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 09:22:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 04:22:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507030933.j639XOOe007701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030932 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030932 OKZ000-KSZ000-031130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1610 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0432 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030932Z - 031130Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SWD TOWARD NRN OK BEYOND 12Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUING TO TRACK SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS NOW LOCATED OVER PAWNEE AND STAFFORD COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EARLY THIS MORNING JUST NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS TSTM COMPLEX. A 40 KT SSWLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT WAA FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THIS MCS AND SSEWD PROPAGATION TOWARD NRN OK. COLD POOL FORMATION WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL MEETING AND/OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS. LLJ IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MID MORNING RESULTING IN SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS MCS. ..PETERS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38289973 37939919 38279831 37599764 36639724 36249793 36169873 36509943 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 10:24:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 05:24:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031035.j63AZLO8032303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031034 MNZ000-031100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1611 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 585... VALID 031034Z - 031100Z WW 585 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM ERN ROSEAU COUNTY SEWD TO SRN KOOCHICHING COUNTY WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD OF WW 585 BY OR JUST AFTER 11Z. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THIS WW THUNDERSTORM INTENSITIES HAVE DECREASED AS STRONGER LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED SWD ACROSS SRN MN. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...WW 585 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z. ..PETERS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 47409501 49009618 49299483 48469160 48009003 47888984 47229141 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 11:29:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 06:29:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031140.j63BeQu5026239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031139 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-031245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1612 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN MN AND FAR WEST CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586... VALID 031139Z - 031245Z CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF WW 586. NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NRN IA. SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN MN AND FAR NRN IA WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION INTO ONE OF ELEVATED STORMS ALONG/JUST N OF SRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM FAR EAST CENTRAL MN SWWD TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NWRN IA. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE VERIFIED BY STRONGEST STORMS NOW LOCATED OVER SRN MN AND NRN IA...WITH NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN-NRN IA AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES SWD. AREA VAD/WIND PROFILER DATA INDICATED A 50 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO NRN IA/SRN MN...WITH ASCENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS JET EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING. 09Z RUC SUGGESTS THIS LLJ WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A NEW WW SOUTH OF WW 586. ..PETERS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42609612 43769499 44469501 45059581 45749448 46409333 46389232 45839200 43989183 43099199 42739354 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 12:29:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 07:29:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031240.j63Ced1b019020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031239 KSZ000-NEZ000-031345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN NEB AND PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031239Z - 031345Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PARTS OF FAR SRN NEB AND NRN/CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB...WHERE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN NEB TO SWRN NEB INTERSECTED A LEE TROUGH OVER FAR ERN CO...AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL/ ERN KS. WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A 35 KT SLY LLJ IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS TO SWRN NEB...WITH 35 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AIDING IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH THIS MORNING...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WAA REGIME EWD ACROSS FAR SRN NEB AND PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL KS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP. MODERATE MUCAPE VALUES PER DDC 12Z SOUNDING WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATED A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 38180020 38700092 40070161 40279990 40229805 38509743 38119881 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 12:59:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 07:59:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031310.j63DA10P031525@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031309 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-031415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN/NRN AND NERN IA INTO SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586... VALID 031309Z - 031415Z NEW WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED ATTM ACROSS SERN MN INTO NRN IA. HOWEVER...THIS AREA EWD INTO SWRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ADDITIONAL WW IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT. 45-50 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL/NRN IA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE WAA REGIME ALONG NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN IA FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS SERN MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN IA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE FROM MID-LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ DECREASES IN STRENGTH. UNTIL THEN...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43159427 43689421 44249373 44189192 43979069 42799052 42569195 42669401 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 15:47:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 10:47:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031558.j63Fwr1A003509@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031558 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031557 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-031830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...CENTRAL/NRN AL...AND WRN/NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031557Z - 031830Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN AXIS FROM E-CENTRAL MS ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN AL INTO WRN/NWRN GA. THREAT EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGE FROM WET MICRO BURSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES. AT 1530Z...WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY WHICH EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS NWRN MS AND TO THE GULF COAST IN VICINITY OF DECAYING MCS OFF THE SRN LA COAST. THE 12Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATED MODEST COLD POOL ACROSS MS/AL WITH TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -9C. THIS THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT ENEWD WITH BAND OF 15-25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNWIND OF REMNANT MCS CIRCULATION AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH AXIS. WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS /LOW TO MID 70S/ ACROSS CENTRAL AL ENEWD INTO NWRN GA...VERTICAL THETA-E DIFFERENCES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THIS ZONE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MORNING BHM SOUNDING INDICATED MODEST DRY LAYERS ABOVE 700MB WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 3500 J/KG ARE ALSO LIKELY DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR STRONG STORM-SCALE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. WSWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 15-25KT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STEM FROM WET MICRO BURSTS WITH STRONGER CORES AND RESULTING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY AID CELL LONGEVITY AND WBZ HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. ..BANACOS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 33328884 34418780 34918634 34918487 34598409 33798357 33348356 32498491 32388597 32168820 32078889 32798906 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 17:01:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 12:01:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031712.j63HCffA000855@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031711 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-031815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587... VALID 031711Z - 031815Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND 18Z AND A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AS OF NOON OVER DECATUR...NORTON...SHERIDAN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN NWRN KS. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS AND VAD/VWP PLOTS SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY IS LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY ASCENT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG WRN EDGE OF SSWLY 30-40 KT LLJ AXIS. MODIFICATION OF 12Z DDC FOR CURRENT OBSERVATION AT RSL INDICATES THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY STILL ELEVATED...HOWEVER PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INFLUX OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ATOP OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING MAY ALLOW SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL SPREADING EWD INTO N-CNTRL KS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO ANTICIPATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SW OF GLD TO NEAR RSL...AND EVENTUALLY SWWD ALONG TROUGH AXIS FROM INTERSECTION WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SWRN KS. ..MEAD.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 40320229 40329925 38249897 38210193 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 17:52:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 12:52:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031803.j63I3eWs021380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031802 COZ000-031930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031802Z - 031930Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEVELOPING STORMS MOVE E AND ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE DEEPENING CUMULUS/SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL CO...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS WITHIN IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULTANT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. AS STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED...DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL. THE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP EWD/SEWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER FAR ERN CO INTO WRN KS. ..MEAD.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38490581 39630526 39810417 39370312 38120293 37380356 37160418 37160503 37530567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 18:16:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 13:16:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031827.j63IRVQj031244@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031825 IAZ000-MNZ000-032100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1618 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL MN AND CENTRAL/WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031825Z - 032100Z POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXISTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO NWRN IA DURING THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AT 18Z...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR STC SWWD TO SUX...WITH LINE OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BAND. DECAYING MCS OVER ERN IA HAS RESULTED IN LARGE RAIN COOLED AREA ACROSS SERN MN AND MUCH OF N-CENTRAL/NERN IA. AIR MASS RECOVERY HAS BEEN MOST RAPID ACROSS NWRN IA WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS NARROWING NEWD JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS S-CENTRAL MN. SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING FROM OAX SUGGESTS MODERATE CINH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. ADDITIONALLY...CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM NWRN KS STORM CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING TO SOME DEGREE. THUS...TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR COLD FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...THAT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP DURING PEAK HEATING PERIOD /20-22Z/ ACROSS NWRN IA/S-CENTRAL MN. STRONG SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG OVER NWRN IA SUGGESTS CONVECTION IN THIS AREA WOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.8 C/KM AT OAX...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH IN PLACE...IN AREAS OF BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHERE SRH WILL BE ENHANCED. ..BANACOS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42459619 43459571 44209530 44679486 44949445 45429374 44779348 44129340 43159324 42339335 41789349 41299397 41349490 41359547 41799600 42179622  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 18:25:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 13:25:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031836.j63IapF1001855@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031836 KSZ000-COZ000-032000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/SWRN INTO S-CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031836Z - 032000Z SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO THE S OF WW 588 BY 20-21Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. 18Z DDC SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON TO THE S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM SUPERCELL OVER RUSH COUNTY WWD THROUGH SCOTT COUNTY AND THEN MORE NWWD INTO E-CNTRL CO /SW OF GLD/. A CONSIDERABLE CAP STILL EXISTS...HOWEVER CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEVERAL OTHER OBSERVED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM CNTRL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS S OF WW 588. ..MEAD.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...PUB... 38050273 37919780 37009774 37020265 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 18:44:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 13:44:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507031855.j63ItXGh009492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031854 SCZ000-GAZ000-032130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL SC WWD TO NERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 031854Z - 032130Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL /IN EXCESS OF 2IN/HR/ SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FROM E-CENTRAL SC WWD TO NERN GA. LOCALIZED NATURE OF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. COVERAGE OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH PEAK HEATING FROM NERN SC TO NERN GA. LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS FOCUSING CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NERN SC WSWWD THROUGH CAE TO FAR NERN GA. POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXIST AROUND ONGOING TSTMS WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CINH. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR GENERATION OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODERATE SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT EXISTS PER GSP AND CAE VAD WIND PROFILES. THIS SUGGESTS A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS OR MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS SUGGEST MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY. LASTLY...PW VALUES REMAIN AOA 2 IN. SMALL ANGLE BETWEEN E-W CONVERGENCE ZONE AND GENERAL ENEWD MOTION OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACTIVITY JUST SOUTH OF CAE AND ALSO WITH OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER WRN SC/FAR NERN GA. ..BANACOS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34798323 35078270 34828193 34338112 34168026 34077922 33847880 33467890 33067933 33037990 32978042 32938094 32998153 33258218 33598281 34508344 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 20:30:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 15:30:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507032041.j63Kfi8n018887@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032039 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-032215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OK PNHDL/NRN TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032039Z - 032215Z SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD INCREASING OVER THE WRN OK AND NWRN TX PNHDLS WITHIN HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED POST-DRYLINE AIR MASS. CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING E OF DRYLINE SHOULD SUPPORT EWD DEVELOPMENT OF THESE DEEPER CONVECTIVE CIRCULATIONS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO EVENTUAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. TUCUMCARI PROFILER HAS SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR NOW MARGINAL SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS. LARGE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. ..MEAD.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36550255 37000175 37009925 36809901 36439909 35999988 35840108 36090230  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 21:53:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 16:53:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507032204.j63M42au016772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032202 MOZ000-KSZ000-040000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032202Z - 040000Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND WRN MO SHORTLY. SCATTERED INTENSE STORMS WERE INCREASING ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF SCNTRL KS MCS. ENVIRONMENT IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE BUT GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO BE LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...GIVEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION FROM NEB/IA...AND GENERAL EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SEVERE MCS ACROSS SCNTRL KS...STORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AND STRENGTH OF MESOSCALE FORCING MAY COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO PROMOTE NUMEROUS MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. A WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR THIS SITUATION. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37559403 37669609 39919608 39959511 40539440 39499260 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 22:12:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 17:12:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507032223.j63MNjmG024781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032222 NEZ000-COZ000-040015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO AND SWRN NEB/SRN NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032222Z - 040015Z A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING ACROSS NERN CO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE/SWRN NEB. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SOON. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING EWD FROM THE FRONT RANGE. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS SRN NEB...NEAR I-80 CORRIDOR. AIR MASS HAS GRADUALLY RECOVERED ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN NEB AS CLOUD REMNANTS FROM MORNING MCS HAVE ADVECTED EAST OF THE REGION. GIVEN 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS SWRN NEB AND MINIMAL CINH...ONGOING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT ACROSS SWRN NEB DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SUGGEST THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER STORMS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND MARGINALLY LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD MINIMIZE TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..BANACOS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41240362 40330375 40050215 40159883 41399874 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 22:53:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 17:53:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507032304.j63N46NK006401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032302 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-040100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1624 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN....SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032302Z - 040100Z STORMS MAY INCREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN IA AND SRN MN...WAS WELL AS SWRN WI...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WATCH. ISOLATED STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS WORTH COUNTY IN NCNTRL IA. THIS CELL APPEARS TO BE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN IA WAS FEEDING INTO THIS ACTIVITY AND ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD FORM ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS WIND MAX NOTED IN PROFILER DATA OVER NEB MOVES EAST. WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT HAVE LIMITED DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT FORCING AND SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS OVER A SMALL CORRIDOR. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AND APPEAR TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY...A SMALL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 41779406 43659334 44369303 45009077 42199162 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 22:57:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 17:57:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507032308.j63N82AM007943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032307 KSZ000-040000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL KS INCLUDING WICHITA METRO AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589... VALID 032307Z - 040000Z ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT WICHITA AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST DURING THE NEXT HOUR. WW 589 CONTINUES IN EFFECT. VERY LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE SUPERCELL LOCATED OVER SRN RENO COUNTY KS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD AT 20-25KT. CURRENT MOTION BRINGS THIS STORM ACROSS ERN KINGMAN AND CENTRAL/WRN SEDGWICK COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT 60 TO 90 MINUTES. BROAD MESOCYCLONE WITH LARGE REGION OF 70+ VIL PER ICT 88D IMAGERY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS /IN EXCESS OF 64KT/ AND LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF BASEBALL SIZE. ALSO...INTENSITY AND AREA OF 50+KT INFLOW INTO THIS CELL HAS INCREASED...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME DAMAGE FROM HIGH WINDS AND POSSIBLY VERY LARGE WIND-DRIVEN HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...BROAD NATURE OF MESOCYCLONE SUGGESTS AN ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS IS LIKELY THE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS ICT AND AREAS NORTH/WEST. ..BANACOS.. 07/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... 37899851 38349843 38539791 38659733 38669678 38069662 37469658 37159686 37149730 37169809 37299835 37439843 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 00:10:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 19:10:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040021.j640KxCi032450@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040020 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-040215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040020Z - 040215Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NRN OK AND SERN KS LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL BE LIKELY OVER THESE AREAS. LONG-LIVED AND VERY INTENSE HP SUPERCELL WITH DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND EXTREME WINDS WAS CONTINUING NEAR ICT THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXTENDED WWD ACROSS SWRN KS WHERE ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ATOP THE COLD POOL EAST OF DDC. MEANWHILE...A MID/UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND WAS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN/SERN CO. ONE OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS OVER SERN CO REGION WAS A SUPERCELL NOW APPEARING TO ACCELERATE SSEWD ACROSS BACA COUNTY IN SERN CO AND STANTON COUNTY IN FAR SWRN KS. THIS CELL MAY BE THE START OF A LARGER SCALE SEVERE MCS TO AFFECT PARTS OF NWRN OK AND THE NERN TX PNHDL IN A FEW HOURS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR WAVE SPREADING OUT OF CO SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN/SRN KS NEXT FEW HOURS. MASS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING MCS NEAR ICT WILL ALSO TEND TO MOVE TOWARD SERN KS/SWRN MO WITH TIME. GIVEN LARGE RESERVOIR OF EXTREME INSTABILITY SITUATED ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND SRN KS....IN CONJUNCTION WITH WNWLY MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THESE SYSTEMS AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE MOST LIKELY FORTHCOMING. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36569469 36589290 36639220 38919331 39049426 38099444 38039636 36979663 36900226 35370130 35299455 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 01:36:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 20:36:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040147.j641lKcD029799@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040144 KSZ000-COZ000-040215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0844 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588...589... VALID 040144Z - 040215Z GIVEN 02Z EXPIRATIONS OF SEVERE WATCHES 588 AND 589...REPLACEMENT SEVERE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SW/SCNTRL KS TO REPLACE WW 589. GIVEN EXPECTED DIMINISHING SEVERE TREND ACROSS NW/CNTRL KS...WW 588 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED 02Z. ..GUYER.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... 39840102 39529808 37029721 37150046 37080171 38500242 39620243  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 01:46:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 20:46:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040157.j641v3x0000854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040156 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-040300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1628 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590... VALID 040156Z - 040300Z SERIES OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG LEADING EDGES OF LARGE MCS COLD POOL HAVE MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF WATCH 590. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...MUCH OF NERN KS AND NWRN MO WILL BE CLEARED FROM THE WATCH IN NEXT STATUS MESSAGE. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 38099457 38099643 40509593 40499410 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 02:38:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 21:38:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040249.j642neXV017768@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040249 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040248 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1629 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0948 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO AND SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591... VALID 040248Z - 040415Z OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE OUTRUN CONVECTION OVER CNTRL MO LATE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG CELLS REMAIN NEAR THE OUTFLOW MOVING FROM SALINE COUNTY TO CHARITON COUNTY MO ATTM. MEANWHILE...EXTENSIVE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCS SWD THEN WWD TO INTERSECT AN INTENSE CELL TRACKING EAST ACROSS ALLEN COUNTY IN SERN KS. ENHANCED INFLOW OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND AS THIS STORM MOVES TOWARD BOURBON COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... 36629225 36539449 37099480 37039598 37659592 37939509 38009410 39169400 39319249 38009206 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 04:15:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 23:15:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040425.j644PuJ4018420@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040425 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040425 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-040600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1630 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS/NRN AND CNTRL OK/FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593...594... VALID 040425Z - 040600Z SEVERE TSTM WATCH 593 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NRN/CNTRL OK AND ERN TX PANHANDLE UNTIL 09Z...WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL INCREASING ACROSS NRN HALF OF OK. VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 594 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN KS UNTIL 06Z. SEVERE TSTMS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ONGOING ACROSS SRN KS INTO FAR NRN OK...WITH HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. VARIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SWD THROUGH NRN OK...AHEAD OF 1) INTENSE STORMS FROM CHANUTE KS TO NEAR PONCA CITY OK AND 2) LINE ROUGHLY ALONG HUTCHINSON KS-MEDICINE LODGE KS-GAGE OK CORRIDOR SURGING SEWD AT 35 KTS. AFOREMENTIONED STORMS IN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE TULSA METRO AREA AS EARLY AS 05Z-0530Z TIMEFRAME. LATTER MENTIONED LINE OF STORMS /HUT-P28-GAG AT 04Z/ EXPECTED TO IMPACT NW/NCNTRL INTO CNTRL OK OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO THE OKC METRO AREA BETWEEN 06Z-07Z...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY FURTHER LINE ACCELERATION. OVERALL SCENARIO OF STEADILY INCREASING SEWD PROPAGATION INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUPPORTED BY CONTINUAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT /WITH 3-5 MB PER 2-HR RISES AT 04Z/ AND INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT IN REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VADS. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WW 594/SRN KS...NORTH OF CONGLOMERATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO LARGE HAIL OWING TO REMNANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..GUYER.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37759916 37669716 37389667 36709495 35889460 35349519 35229716 35599935 36160025 37120024 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 04:51:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 23:51:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040502.j6452oRm001467@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040502 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040501 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-040630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO...NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040501Z - 040630Z A VERY LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND OK LATE TONIGHT. A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX...FROM EXTREME SWRN MO INTO NWRN AR...WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. A VERY LARGE AND INTENSE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SERN KS WITH A PAIR OF SEVERE SQUALL LINES EXTENDING SWD/SWWD ACROSS PARTS OF NERN OK AND NWRN OK ATTM. AIRMASS FEEDING INTO THIS COMPLEX REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE. LATEST TRENDS IN PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND WILL MAINTAIN STRONG MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT...FROM NRN OK EWD INTO NWRN AR. OVERALL PATTERN AND SYSTEM MOTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT A SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY EXPAND EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WOULD BRING SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO PARTS OF AR AND SWRN MO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...A NEW WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPMENT IN ABOUT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... 35139450 35749449 37579456 37569241 35149238 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 06:31:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 01:31:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040644.j646hg7f002352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040640 ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1632 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE/SRN HALF OF OK/NRN TX/WRN AR/SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591...593... VALID 040640Z - 040715Z STRONGEST BOW ECHO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 593 DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS...WITH WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT REACHING FAR ERN OK TO ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER BY 09Z. HAIL...WITH LESS OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED ATTM TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND PARTS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE SOUTH OF WW 593. WELL ORGANIZED BOW ECHO CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM SERN KS /50 NNW BVO/ TO JUST NORTH OF THE OKC METRO AREA...WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING WEST THEN WNWWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. A LEAD LINE OF STORMS ALSO MOVING ESE EXTENDED FROM SERN KS TO AROUND TUL. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE PRIMARY BOW ECHO SEWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK TO WRN AR AND NRN-NERN TX. THIS AXIS...GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND 40-45 KT SLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL OK...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A MORE PERSISTENT WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT. WEST OF THIS REGION INTO WRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND POTENTIALLY NWRN TX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HAVE ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOCATED ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 45-50 KT SLY LLJ LOCATED FROM WRN TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK WILL MAINTAIN WAA REGIME FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. 45-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY BOW. ..PETERS.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA... 36460104 37070032 37149898 36569796 36829687 37599655 37249539 36759380 34569341 33349425 33029590 33319882 33799984 35490100 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 07:43:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 02:43:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040754.j647siRQ027868@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040753 MIZ000-WIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-040930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN-ERN WI AND LAKE MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040753Z - 040930Z ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL AND NEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A TROUGH MOVING EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SSWWD TO SWRN WI AND THEN INTO CENTRAL IA TO ERN/SERN NEB. 30 KT SWLY LLJ LOCATED EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY AND NOSING INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA ACROSS THIS AREA. ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT OF A 35 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND THE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. INFLOW TO THESE THUNDERSTORMS PER SWLY LLJ IS ORIGINATING FROM IA WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS REMAINED MODERATELY UNSTABLE. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK SUGGESTING STORMS WILL TEND TO BE PULSE WITH ISOLATED HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 41188748 40418888 41019107 41419205 42419240 43299144 44389006 45548833 45568701 44498591 42918647 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 07:50:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 02:50:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040801.j6481jNx030141@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040800 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-041000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1634 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB/NW KS/FAR NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040800Z - 041000Z POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARY THREAT OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST/DEVELOP S/SE ACROSS SW NEB/FAR NE CO INTO NW KS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WATCH. PERSISTENT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX -- LOCATED BETWEEN SIDNEY AND IMPERIAL NEB AT 08Z -- CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND S/SE...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE OVER THE PAST HOUR. COMPLEX MAY BE AIDED BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SRN WY/NRN CO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP S/SE OVERNIGHT INVOF ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. 06Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AS MUCH AS 750-1000 J/KG MUCAPE FOR ELEVATED PARCELS. AMPLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS EXISTS OVER THE REGION PER PROFILER NETWORK/LOCAL WSR-88D VADS IN ACCORDANCE WITH RUC GUIDANCE. SRN EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT/POTENTIAL SEVERITY APPEARS QUESTIONABLE PROGRESSIVELY SWD INTO ECNTRL CO/WCNTRL KS GIVEN OVERTURNED NATURE OF AIRMASS VIA EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. ..GUYER.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41500215 41570104 40890011 40220005 38790031 38820245 39750303 40910294 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 08:18:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 03:18:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507040829.j648Tfeg008813@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040828 OKZ000-TXZ000-040900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL OK AND FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593... VALID 040828Z - 040900Z WW 593 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ISOLATED THREAT SUGGESTS A NEW WW SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE BOW ECHO EXTENDED FROM NERN OK SWWD TO FAR SERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OK...WITH THE OUTFLOW THEN TRAILING WSWWD INTO SWRN OK NEAR LTS AND THEN ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. STRONGEST INFLOW OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS INTO ERN/ SERN OK SUGGESTING STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE IN WW 595 THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VALID PORTION OF WW 593 AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS A 45 KT SWLY LLJ NOSES INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK SUPPORTING STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA ATOP COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF THE BOW. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WEAKER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA... 35280076 36460028 36849944 36389660 35509752 34759864 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 10:02:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 05:02:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507041013.j64ADKcs018540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041012 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-041115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN 2/3 OF OK INTO NWRN AR/FAR SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595... VALID 041012Z - 041115Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF OK. TRENDS IN RADAR DATA INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE BOW ECHO INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR AND ERN OK DURING THE LAST HOUR. THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THIS BOW EXTENDED WSWWD ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL-SWRN OK ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN SWWD TO NEAR LBB. STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE EARLY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA REGIME ALONG THE NOSE OF A 45 KT SSWLY LLJ AND ATOP THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLIER BOW ECHO. THIS NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS...GIVEN 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34509966 34909946 35479906 36089952 36289924 36119808 36149705 35919554 36009504 36919489 36849250 35159400 34099476 33849581 34129893 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 16:05:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 11:05:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507041616.j64GG9n1007386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041614 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041613 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-041745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1637 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL SWWD INTO E-CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041613Z - 041745Z SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 1557Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM APPROXIMATELY 35 SE DBQ TO 25 NNW STL...WITH MORE ISOLATED CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP AS FAR S AS 35 W OF CGI. MODIFICATION OF 12Z ILX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OF DEVELOPING STORMS YIELDS SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP. DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS MO WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. RECENT TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW VEERING SURFACE WINDS WHICH IS RESULTING IN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE PROFILE /PER LOCAL VWPS/VADS/. NONETHELESS... STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR DEVELOPING TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39439073 41039002 41728933 42158827 42128764 41558726 40628763 39168875 38398930 38168996 38189055 38829098 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 16:25:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 11:25:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507041636.j64GaXKo016106@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041635 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-041800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1638 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR SWWD INTO NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041635Z - 041800Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW DEEPENING CUMULUS/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING FROM NEAR ELD SWWD TO W OF TYR ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER SRN OK. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS WARMED THROUGH THE 80S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...SUPPORTING VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS...IT APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /PER LOCAL PROFILERS/ WILL BE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..MEAD.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD... 32309683 32799587 33549413 34209301 34869262 34919212 34119158 32979226 32159326 31669474 31379642 31659698 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 17:12:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 12:12:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507041722.j64HMwUO005194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041722 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041721 MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-041845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO INTO N-CNTRL/NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041721Z - 041845Z AN INCREASING THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ALONG COLD FRONT FROM W OF STL TO SSE OF TBN WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ AIR MASS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PLAN VIEW VAD/VWP FIELDS INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF 40-45 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN MO...FROM NERN OK/SWRN MO INTO CNTRL IL...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD/NEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM STL SWD TO ALONG NRN EXTENSION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NERN AR /NEAR OR W OF ARG/. THIS COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LINE SEGMENTS AND STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 38309123 38479096 38489020 37258977 35419065 35189201 35509240 36869219 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 17:15:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 12:15:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507041726.j64HQBaB006852@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041725 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041724 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-041930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1640 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...ERN/NERN CO...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041724Z - 041930Z FOOTHILLS OF SERN WY SWD ALONG CO FRONT RANGE ARE BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WW WITHIN NEXT 2-4 HOURS. ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-BORDER REGION OF CO/WY/NEB THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AT 17Z...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN KS WNWWD TO JUST SOUTH OF AKO TO ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES FROM CYS/CPR. SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND SFC ANTICYCLONE AND NORTH OF FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS NWWD ACROSS NERN CO INTO SERN WY THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL STATUS DISSIPATES ACROSS SERN WY THIS AFTERNOON...INSOLATION SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS LIKELY HOLDING IN THE MID 50S IN FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE UPPER DYNAMIC FEATURES APPEAR DIFFUSE UPSTREAM...MODELS MAINTAIN BAND OF 30-35KT 500MB FLOW ACROSS SERN WY/NERN CO THROUGH 03/00Z. ALSO...500MB TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY COOL FOR JULY WITH -12C ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SPREADING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN WY/NERN CO DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...PROFILES WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS /SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT/ WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. SFC T-TD SPREADS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY LARGE FOR TORNADOES DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. GREATEST THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD BE WITHIN PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND IN AREAS OF BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED ACROSS NERN CO INTO THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SERN WY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 39730446 41190522 42480603 42880572 42880415 42780366 42130280 41040218 39320213 38750214 38770330 38750426 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 18:11:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 13:11:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507041822.j64IM9fq022885@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041821 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041821 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-041945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1641 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS/W-CNTRL INTO NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041821Z - 041945Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 1810Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SPIRAL-SHAPED CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM NEAR HSV WWD TO TUP AND THEN SEWD TO S OF TCL ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. WHILE OKOLONA MS PROFILER INDICATES QUITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING NEWD AROUND VORTICITY MAX WILL SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING/STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH WBZH OF 11.5-12.5 KFT WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE MELTING OF ANY HAIL STONES. STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD OUT OF NERN MS ACROSS NRN AL AND INTO SRN MIDDLE TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...WITHIN REGION OF STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER DISTURBANCE. ..MEAD.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 33438924 34248912 34978826 35488779 35798679 35498611 34918604 34388628 33658649 32978679 32618737 32848870 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 19:08:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 14:08:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507041919.j64JJgOQ014135@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041919 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041918 MIZ000-INZ000-042045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1642 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI INTO NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041918Z - 042045Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS REGION AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD/DEVELOPING TSTMS FROM CNTRL LOWER MI INTO N-CNTRL IND ALONG/E OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT EXTENDING FROM N OF LAN SWWD TO JUST E OF SBN. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. FARTHER N...PERSISTENT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION HAVE ESTABLISHED A W-E ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ACROSS CNTRL LOWER MI...WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING RAPIDLY N OF THIS BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40-45 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST: 1) WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED ALONG ALONG THE WIND SHIFT OR ALONG/S OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...AND/OR 2) IF CURRENT STRONG/SEVERE STORM NE OF CHI CAN MAINTAIN IT/S INTENSITY WHILE MOVING ACROSS SRN LAKE MI. ..MEAD.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41428605 41748674 42638628 43268477 43468377 43028271 42018323 41778457 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 19:54:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 14:54:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507042005.j64K545L001964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042003 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-042200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1643 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX AND FAR E-CENTRAL/NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042003Z - 042200Z ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS...AND IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR E-CENTRAL/NERN NM. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. A WW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY BE MARGINAL. AT 1930Z...MAF 88D SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THERMAL LOW OVER SWRN TX WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE EXTENDING E-W FROM 40NE HOB TO 30N ABI PER VIS SATELLITE AND WEST TX MESONET OBS. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED WWD INTO LBB AREA NEAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG FROM NEAR LBB SSEWD TO SJT. BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THIS REGION...AND IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE S-SE OF LBB. REMAINING CAPPING AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE INHIBITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH-BASED TOWERING CU SPREADING OFF THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN ROCKIES MAY SEPARATELY DEVELOP INTO ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS FAR E-CENTRAL/NERN NM AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS WNWWD. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 20KT SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS OR SMALL MULTICELLULAR STORM CLUSTERS. STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS MAY ALSO SUPPORT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS DCAPE VALUES INCREASE WITH CONTINUED DEEPENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ..BANACOS.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 32119921 31729907 31489922 31300000 31350044 32060109 32930223 33990365 35040457 35860488 36490494 36860472 37000436 36930307 35230260 34120050 33749987 33369955 32779936 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 20:13:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 15:13:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507042024.j64KOfsZ010438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042022 INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-042145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1644 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL SWWD INTO SERN MO AND NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596...597... VALID 042022Z - 042145Z THROUGH 22-23Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FROM E-CNTRL IL SWWD THROUGH SRN IL INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL. AS OF 2004Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN ISOLATED STORM OVER MOULTRIE COUNTY IN CNTRL IL WITH A MORE CONTINUOUS LINE OF TSTMS FROM ST. CLAIR COUNTY IL SWWD INTO IZARD COUNTY IN N-CNTRL AR. THE MOULTRIE COUNTY STORM IS MOVING 240/30-35 KTS AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH ERN EDGE OF WW 596 BY AROUND 2130Z. MEANWHILE...NRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER ST. CLAIR COUNTY IL HAS EVOLVED INTO A BOWING STRUCTURE AND ACCELERATED EWD AT 30-35 KTS. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM VICINITY OF THE ST. CLAIR COUNTY STORM SWWD INTO NERN AR WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG. FARTHER N OVER CNTRL AND ERN IL...AIR MASS IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ OWING TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND COMPARATIVELY LESS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND VAD/VWP DISPLAYS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL MO SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. THROUGH 22-23Z...EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO REMAIN CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOULTRIE COUNTY STORM WILL APPROACH ERN EDGE OF WW 596 BY 2130Z...SO CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW INTO CNTRL IND. ..MEAD.. 07/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 42098832 42038691 38218789 38248839 35049008 35189285 38259130 38339021 40318978 40418928  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 03:57:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 22:57:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507050408.j6548ZSZ021105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050406 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050405 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-050500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601... VALID 050405Z - 050500Z LATEST RADAR AND OTHER OBSERVATIONAL DATA WERE INDICATING A SEWD MOVING COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW MOVING ACROSS DDC AREA. A 55KT WIND GUST WAS OBSERVED AT GCK EARLIER BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM DDC...AS WELL AS VIL TRENDS...WOULD SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DECAY...A NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 37030003 36990207 37550205 37610044 39410029 39389998 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 06:38:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 01:38:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507050649.j656nfkn012397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050649 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050648 TXZ000-NMZ000-050715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1654 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050648Z - 050715Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TX INTO FAR SERN NM. STRONG WIND GUSTS...SOME PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE...WILL BE LIKELY WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY SINCE 06Z WITH A BOW STRUCTURE CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM ERN LAMB COUNTY TX SWWD TO NRN LEA COUNTY NM. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS REMAINED MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVELY UN-TURNED...WITH THIS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY EXTENDING SSEWD TO A LINE FROM INK-MAF-50 W ABI. AIR MASS S AND E OF THIS LINE HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED...AND THUS SHOULD PROVIDE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP A MOIST SELY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. ..PETERS.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF... 34230183 34180075 33110065 32240082 32020153 31840236 31790308 32730359 33120355 33490233 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 08:17:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 03:17:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507050828.j658SiRG019316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050827 OKZ000-051000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 050827Z - 051000Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NWRN OK...MOVING SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN OK. FARTHER S...ZONE OF TRAINING STORMS LOCATED W-E FROM SRN CADDO AND COMANCHE COUNTIES TO SERN OK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR. ...NWRN INTO NRN/CENTRAL OK... SRN EXTENT OF BOW ECHO WHICH EXTENDED FROM SRN KS /20 E HUT/ SWWD INTO NWRN OK /45 NNE CSM/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO NRN AND CENTRAL OK...LIKELY REACHING THE OKC METRO AREA BETWEEN 10-12Z. WEAK ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOW STRUCTURE WILL INHIBIT STORM RELATIVE INFLOW FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL AND 50 KT OF NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR PROPAGATION TOWARD THE SE. SRN PORTION OF THIS BOW ACROSS NWRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONGEST AS THIS PART MOVES SEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT...WITH CURRENT FORWARD MOVEMENT OF 25-30 KT EXPECTED TO PERSIST. ...SRN OK... REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SRN CADDO/COMANCHE COUNTIES EWD TO SERN OK...WITH THIS ACTIVITY TRAINING EWD. 25 KT SLY LLJ PER WSR-88D VADS AND WIND PROFILERS IS NOSING INTO THE WRN EXTENT OF THESE STORMS. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING GENERALLY E-W ACROSS NRN TX...WITH THE NEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL OK SUPPORTED BY MOIST/UNSTABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA WITH THE LLJ. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST 1 IN/HOUR RAINFALL RATES. STRONGEST EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SWRN-WRN OK ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND AS A 50 KT NWLY MID LEVEL JET SPREADS INTO THIS AREA. THUS...A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN... 36939811 36759706 36149646 35779574 35119544 34529501 34029507 34159653 34439788 34379868 34579902 35389937 35989951 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 08:48:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 03:48:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507050859.j658xKoD032764@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050858 TXZ000-NMZ000-051000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1656 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX AND FAR SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604... VALID 050858Z - 051000Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE TX PORTION OF WW 604. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THE GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX HAS MOVED WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY NEW STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV NOW LOCATED NEAR LBB. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE AIR MASS ACROSS WRN TX REMAINED MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. THUS...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE MCV TRACKS TOWARD THE SSE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..PETERS.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... 32830023 31390293 33050400 34500131 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 16:16:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 11:16:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507051627.j65GRMs2008135@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051626 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-051800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OH INTO WRN PORTIONS OF PA/NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051626Z - 051800Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 1615Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING ALONG COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL OH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN/CNTRL OH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS INTENSIFICATION. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS ERN OH INTO WRN PA/NY IS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION THUS FAR TODAY. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER SERN OH INTO SWRN PA AND OVER WRN NY SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING. WHEN COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS. SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH 25-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR /PER LOCAL VWPS/ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. ..MEAD.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 40738236 41528141 42128033 42957886 42247766 40747830 39667980 39368153 39238231 39918263 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 16:45:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 11:45:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507051656.j65GuHff027394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051655 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051655 VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-051830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1658 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051655Z - 051830Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH INTENSIFYING STORMS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS INTENSIFYING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM 30 SW OF MSS SWD TO NEAR MSV. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN A WEAKLY FORCED LARGE-SCALE ENVIR0NMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP TROPOSPHERIC SWLY FLOW. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IT APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT BECOMES APPARENT A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...A WW WOULD NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. ..MEAD.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF... 41807498 44547564 45007475 45017241 41677293 41247394 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 17:30:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 12:30:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507051741.j65HfbQT022722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051740 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-052015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / SRN MS / SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051740Z - 052015Z WE ARE MONITORING THE AREA FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FEEDING NWD E OF LOW CENTER...WITH DEWPOINTS OF 75-80. IN ADDITION...SOME HEATING WAS OCCURRING AT MIDDAY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN AL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR OF 15-25 KTS...AND 0-1 SRH VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25-50 M2/S2 ONSHORE. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES ARE LIKELY STRONGER FARTHER SW CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS TROPICAL LOW CENTER NEARS THE COAST. IF WIND PROFILES INCREASE...A TORNADO WATCH WOULD BE LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30458711 31208721 31328824 31118941 30439039 30079032 28908928 29308878 29768795 29808696 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 17:53:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 12:53:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507051804.j65I4nF0003949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051801 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-051930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...VA/NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051801Z - 051930Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. APPEARS TWO REGIMES MAY FOCUS CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE FIRST IS ALONG AND E OF A PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF MRB TO W OF RIC TO E OF RWI. A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED E OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY FROM NEAR RIC TO W OF ORF TO E OF RWI. MOREOVER...MORE SLY SURFACE WINDS OVER ERN VA/NC WHEN COUPLED WITH MODEST /I.E. 20-25 KT/ WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...RELATIVELY HIGH WBZH OF 12-13 KFT WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE MELTING. THE SECOND REGIME IS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN VA/NC EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ERN KY/TN. WHILE DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY ARE COMPARATIVELY LOWER THAN POINTS TO THE E...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP FOCUS INCREASING STORM COVERAGE INTO THE PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT A GREATER THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL WITH THESE STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP... 35468160 36638141 37867980 38127851 38217716 37297630 35827657 34867699 34097831 34847992  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 18:24:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 13:24:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507051835.j65IZibW021494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051834 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-051930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO INTO NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051834Z - 051930Z POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AND A WW WILL BE REQUIRED BY 20Z. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE SWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE IN NRN NM. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN WNWLY MEAN FLOW IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS WRN INTO CNTRL CO...WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. MODIFICATION OF 18Z DEN SOUNDING FOR SURFACE CONDITIONS AT LIC YIELDS SBCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP. GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS ON LOCAL VADS/VWPS...EXPECT DEVELOPING STORMS TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 40930571 40990260 35770268 35890560 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 18:43:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 13:43:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507051854.j65IsRoq032429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051853 NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-COZ000-052030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1662 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY INTO WRN SD AND THE NEB PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051853Z - 052030Z APPEARS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A WW WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE 20Z. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS WITH ADDITIONAL DEEPENING CUMULUS ALONG LEE TROUGH NE OF CPR SWD TO CYS. 18Z RAP SOUNDING SHOWS THAT AIR MASS OVER WRN SD HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ WITH LIKELY A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WWD INTO ERN WY. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER ERN WY INTO WRN SD. MODEST /20-25 KT/ WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SLY/SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..MEAD.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 45010632 45000250 41020246 41000624 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 22:56:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 17:56:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507052307.j65N7b6s005622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052306 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-060030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1663 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0606 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052306Z - 060030Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES...WITHIN THE HOUR. A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CRESTING THE BROAD UPR RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS HAS AGAIN SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS ERN CO THIS EVENING. A MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION RESULTING FROM NUMEROUS STORM MERGERS FROM WRN CHEYENNE COUNTY SWWD TO PUEBLO COUNTY CO WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A DEEPENING COLD POOL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ESEWD TOWARD KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE COLD POOL COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER FLOW FOR FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WITH THIS COMPLEX. THEREFORE...A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 35800006 35810218 39340202 39259986 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 00:05:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 19:05:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507060016.j660GhRL000878@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060013 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-060215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0713 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...WRN SD...NEB PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606... VALID 060013Z - 060215Z A NUMBER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WRN SD AND THE NEB PNHDL THIS EVENING. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WAS NOTED OVER ERN WY. MOST PERSISTENT STORM CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER DAWES COUNTY NEB. THIS CONVECTION WAS DRIFTING SOUTH INTO A POCKET OF STRONG INSTABILITY. OTHER VIGOROUS STORMS WERE OCCURRING ON AND NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT...FROM THE NERN PART OF WATCH 606...OVER WRN SD...EWD ACROSS SCNTRL SD. FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM PASSING MID LEVEL IMPULSE...COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY... SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SEVERE HAIL AND WIND INTO THE EVENING. A SMALL MCS OR TWO MAY NOW BE EVOLVING FROM THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEVELOPMENT LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SEVERE POTENTIAL CAN PERSIST ACROSS WRN NEB. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IF IT APPEARS STORMS CAN MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. ..CARBIN.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ... 40970193 40930495 44950608 44910286  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 00:39:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 19:39:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507060050.j660o5rw014014@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060047 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-060245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1665 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / SRN MS / SRN AL / FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 607... VALID 060047Z - 060245Z AREA VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE THAT SHEAR MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ABOUT 100 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH NOTED ON LIX RADAR. HOWEVER...FLOW DECREASES WITH HEIGHT ABOVE 3-4 KM AND SUGGESTS MINIMAL THREAT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. FARTHER E...MOB VAD INDICATES STRENGTHENING FLOW. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES STRENGTHENING FLOW AS WELL...WITH HODOGRAPHS BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AFTER ABOUT 04Z. HOWEVER...RUC DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW LOCATION. THE NAM DEPICTS THE LOW LOCATION WELL...BUT THE WIND PROFILES FORECAST BY THIS MODEL ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE. GIVEN INCREASING FLOW ON MOB VWP AND APPROACHING CYCLONE CENTER...THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES DEVELOPING...WHERE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR. ..JEWELL.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... 30858907 31308745 31328532 29588477 29658601 29478837 30348876  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 02:47:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 21:47:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507060258.j662w7JD001224@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060257 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-060430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0957 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...ERN CO...WRN KS...NERN NM AND TX/OK PNHDLS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605...606... VALID 060257Z - 060430Z SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 605 AND 606 WILL EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. WHILE A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS COULD EXPERIENCE SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR A SUSTAINED THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE THE TX PNHDL...AND PERHAPS A SMALL PORTION OF WRN NEB. A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...WAS WITHIN AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FROM NERN NM INTO THE TX AND OK PNHDLS. THIS BAND OF INTENSE STORMS CONTINUES NEWD TO A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRATIFORM RAIN REGION OF A SMALL MCS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SWRN KS. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SEWD ALONG RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE INTO NWRN OK. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE KS MCS APPEARS LIMITED BY DECREASING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING INHIBITION. STORMS WITHIN THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PNHDLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS ERN NM AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF HAIL AND OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS. FARTHER NORTH...A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT OF STORMS WAS MOVING INTO NWRN KS AND INTO CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR MASS WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS EXPANDING ALONG A SEWD MOVING ARC ACROSS NRN NEB...OVER CHERRY COUNTY. INSTABILITY AND INFLOW INTO THIS COMPLEX COULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ALONG THIS LINE AS IT SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE REST OF NEB TONIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 34560309 34660500 36220522 37640260 39570360 41120367 41930347 43070197 43089984 42949918 40899903 37039899 35400073 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 07:06:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 02:06:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507060716.j667GuAo006802@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060716 TXZ000-060745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1667 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL AND NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060716Z - 060745Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL INTO NWRN TX... PRIMARILY THE LUBBOCK FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BOW STRUCTURE WITH ASSOCIATED COLD POOL OVER WRN TX...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOW CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CASTRO TO YOAKUM COUNTIES. INSTABILITY REMAINED FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT...WITH 30 KT OF SELY LOW LEVEL INFLOW RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF ESE MOVEMENT. VAD DATA FROM CVS 88D IN ERN NM INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS ERN NM AROUND 05Z...WITH A BAND OF 35-40 KT WNWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE NOW SPREADING INTO WRN TX. MOIST INFLOW COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE WNWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE BOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 33090274 33660233 34460216 34470093 34349969 33419949 32430030 32680261 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 08:39:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 03:39:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507060850.j668oBRM014198@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060847 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060847 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-060945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1668 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS/SRN AND CENTRAL AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 608... VALID 060847Z - 060945Z THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM RELATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD THIS MORNING ACROSS SERN MS INTO SWRN-SRN AND CENTRAL AL...AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. AT 08Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THE CENTER OF T.S. "CINDY" LOCATED OVER FAR SERN LA /40 NNW BVE/. NHC FORECAST TRACK TAKES CINDY NEWD ACROSS FAR SERN MS INTO SWRN AL TODAY...WITH THE FAVORABLE E AND NE QUADRANT CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS SERN MS AND SWRN AL AND INTO SRN/CENTRAL AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. STRONGEST BAND OF CONVECTION WAS ORIENTED GENERALLY N-S FROM FAR SERN MS/FAR SWRN AL SWD TO THE NRN GULF /APPROX. 125 SE BVE/. RADAR DATA HAS INDICATED OCCASIONAL LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH A FEW STORMS IN THIS CONVECTIVE BAND...WHILE LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED AN INCREASE IN STRIKES. DRY INTRUSION EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA JUST WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND WOULD SUGGEST THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE WITH AND E/NE OF THIS BAND OF STORMS. AREA WSR-88D VADS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 300 M2/S2...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT/. THESE SHEAR VALUES WITHIN A VERY MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AIDS IN DESTABILIZING THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29998956 30878955 31618942 32378860 32688730 32508523 31048517 29658549 29538651 29458811 30038860  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 09:34:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 04:34:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507060945.j669jaER004527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060944 OKZ000-TXZ000-061045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1669 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609... VALID 060944Z - 061045Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN/SERN PARTS OF WW 609 FOR THE NEXT HOUR...WHILE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD POOL REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER GARZA AND KENT COUNTIES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE VALUES /47 KT GUST IN GARZA COUNTY NEAR 09Z/. THIS PORTION OF THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...WHICH EXTENDED FROM COTTLE COUNTY TO KENT COUNTY...SHOULD REACH NERN FISHER TO STONEWALL COUNTIES BY 10Z. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED WEAKER DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY /EAST OF WW 609/...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS...BOTH OF WHICH SUGGEST A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE COLD POOL REGION ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT BURST TYPE WIND GUSTS. THESE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE RESULT OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THIS REGION AIDING IN AN INCREASE IN DOWNWARD VERTICAL ACCELERATION WITH POCKETS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB... 32990273 34640211 34599999 34409969 32990030 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 12:39:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 07:39:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507061250.j66CoDoY020825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061248 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-061345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1670 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS/CENTRAL AND SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SWRN AND WRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 610... VALID 061248Z - 061345Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 610 THIS MORNING. RADAR/ SATELLITE TRENDS WITH T.S. CINDY SUGGEST A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF WRN/SWRN GA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A SERIES OF DISCRETE STORMS ALONG THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF T.S. CINDY...WITH THIS BAND EXTENDING FROM MONROE COUNTY AL SWD ACROSS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NRN GULF. RADAR DATA ALSO SHOWED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH EACH OF THESE STORMS. THE NRN MOST STORMS WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE BAND HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK NWD INTO THE EXTENSIVE RAIN SHIELD SPREADING INLAND IN ADVANCE OF CINDY. HOWEVER...TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...AND INLAND ACROSS SRN AL THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR T.S. TORNADOES. VIS IMAGERY INDICATED THE STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING/BEST REGION FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FL PANHANDLE NWD ACROSS SERN AL INTO SWRN GA. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND....WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING TREND FOR TORNADOES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30238856 30998869 31788864 32368841 32628795 32738601 32578508 31478487 30598494 29708519 29818665 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 14:05:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 09:05:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507061416.j66EGcRD007566@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061414 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-061515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1671 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0914 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 610... VALID 061414Z - 061515Z POTENTIAL FOR MINI SUPERCELL AND INHERENT TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND NO REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. CINDY HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG FROM JUST E/NE OF CIRCULATION EWD THROUGH TAE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THIS SAME AREA IS LIMITING ANY AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. A NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER TODAY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS REGION OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ..MEAD.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 32348844 32348535 30198554 30168857 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 16:38:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 11:38:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507061649.j66GnXqa006428@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061648 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061648 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-061815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1672 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN INTO E-CNTRL AL AND W-CNTRL/SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061648Z - 061815Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS AREA AND WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY PRIOR TO 18Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS REMNANT CINDY CIRCULATION N OF MOB AND W OF GZH WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE FROM THIS LOW E THROUGH DHN AND THEN NEWD TO S OF MCN. A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE HAVE ALLOWED AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. LOCAL VWPS FROM EGLIN AFB...FT. RUCKER AND MAXWELL AFB INDICATE RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PERSISTING E OF THE LOW WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. APPEARS GREATEST THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH MINI SUPERCELLS AS THEY CROSS WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ..MEAD.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31218731 32158747 32978565 33328475 33068394 31658384 30898560 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 17:53:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 12:53:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507061804.j66I4gRv020384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061804 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061803 COZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-061930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1673 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO INTO NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061803Z - 061930Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 19-20Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS/SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE SWD THROUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE IN NERN NM. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE ALLOWED IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES OF NOW AROUND 1000 J/KG. FURTHER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS ERN CO INTO ERN NM WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG. LOCAL VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE WEAKER MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST S OR SSELY STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH TIME...STORM PROPAGATION ALONG ANY ORGANIZING COLD POOLS MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ERN CO AND NERN NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ..MEAD.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 41010585 40990282 35770306 35750567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 18:13:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 13:13:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507061824.j66IO3Z3001770@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061823 LAZ000-TXZ000-062030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1674 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061823Z - 062030Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WWD ACROSS SERN TX WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THE AIR MASS HAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND MAY DESTABILIZE FURTHER WITH HEATING. WITH NO CIN PRESENT...STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR WITHIN DEEPENING SFC TROUGH. AREA PROFILERS INDICATE WEAK SHEAR PROFILES...THUS PULSE TYPE CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS GIVEN VERY WARM AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER. ..JEWELL.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 29699382 29369485 29209555 29069706 29089819 29509876 30119917 30369796 30839706 31249673 31839673 32239730 32829726 33069706 32749534 32239421 31689420 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 18:42:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 13:42:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507061853.j66IqvgH019346@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061851 NMZ000-TXZ000-062015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1675 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL INTO SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061851Z - 062015Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WITH ADDITIONAL DEEPENING CUMULUS E OF 4CR. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. PROFILERS FROM TUCUMCARI AND WHITE SANDS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES CONSIDERABLY WITH SWD EXTENT...SUGGESTING STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR AND GENERALLY DISORGANIZED. THE STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OWING TO THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. ..MEAD.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 32030575 33930570 34880552 35060492 34840385 33340377 31940417 31850488 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 19:01:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 14:01:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507061911.j66JBndu031396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061910 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-062015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1676 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AL INTO W-CNTRL GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 611... VALID 061910Z - 062015Z A HEIGHTENED THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM MGM TO CSG. AS OF 1901Z...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN LARGER PRECIPITATION REGION OVER ELMORE...MONTGOMERY AND MACON COUNTIES IN AL. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED INVOF A WARM FRONT OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE EXTENDING FROM REMNANT CINDY CIRCULATION SW OF SEM ENEWD TO N OF MCN. ENVIRONMENT ALONG/JUST N OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2 /PER LOCAL VWPS/. EXPECT THIS FAVORABLE REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP NNEWD WITH TIME IN ADVANCE OF MIGRATORY CIRCULATION...POSSIBLY REQUIRING AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH OVER NERN AL INTO NWRN GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. ..MEAD.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 33228616 33418418 30878418 30678624 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 20:29:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 15:29:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507062039.j66Kdswv020642@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062037 MTZ000-062200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1677 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL INTO NERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062037Z - 062200Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AND AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD FROM AROUND GTF EWD THROUGH LWT WITHIN A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SHIFTING EWD THROUGH WA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. WHILE LOCAL AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE HIGH-BASED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ..MEAD.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 49021123 49000695 46700723 46641165  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 21:41:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 16:41:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507062152.j66LqPXn030186@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062151 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-062315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1678 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062151Z - 062315Z SEVERE WIND MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY N OF LBB. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE TX PANHANDLE SWD TO EAST OF MAF...WITH CU FIELDS EVIDENT ON MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY. CHARACTER OF THE CU SUGGEST SOME CAPPING REMAINS. GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR...HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS NOW OVER NERN NM...WHICH WILL MOVE S AND SEWD INTO THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 33870297 32590210 32000139 31890049 32240056 32890084 34090058 35460088 36700119 36730249 36310349 34930333 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 23:02:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 18:02:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507062313.j66NDI7P002957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062311 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-062345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1679 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN GA...ERN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 611...612...613... VALID 062311Z - 062345Z CENTER OF REMNANT CINDY WAS OVER PERRY COUNTY AL AT 23Z AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ALONG PRESSURE FALL AXIS INTO NERN AL THROUGH THE EVENING. A COUPLE BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY THROUGH ERN AL AND WRN GA. STRONGEST STORMS ARE FAVORING WRN GA WHERE AIR MASS IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. BUT...STRONG TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED VCNTY THE LOW CORE OVER COOSA COUNTY AL SINCE 2230Z. VWPS SHOWING 0-1KM SHEARS IN EXCESS OF 30-35 KTS IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF REMNANT CINDY. GIVEN RADAR PRESENTATION OF SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL COUPLETS...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL PROBABLY LAST BEYOND THE 00Z EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCHES 611/613. AS A RESULT...A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF WRN GA/ERN AL. ..RACY.. 07/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... 30848522 31848518 32458581 32998659 34098626 34368458 34308419 32898423 31038426 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 00:26:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 19:26:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507070037.j670bAvA006538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070032 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-070230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1680 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEBRASKA / FAR ERN CO / NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070032Z - 070230Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MOVE EWD INTO NEBRASKA AND KS. SEVERE STORMS OVER WASHINGTON AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN CO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL EWD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE STORM SPLITS. 00Z LBF SOUNDING SHOWS VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH NO CAP...AND ALSO VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. DDC SOUNDING IS ALSO FAVORABLE BUT A SMALL CAP EXISTS. IN EITHER CASE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS AND WITH STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. ..JEWELL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU... 39550276 40150278 40880127 41220067 39160017 38310005 38800281 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 02:13:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 21:13:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507070224.j672OMvX024435@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070223 OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-070300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1681 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND EXTREME WRN TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 612...615... VALID 070223Z - 070300Z STRONGER TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS NERN NM EWD INTO THE TX PNHDL THIS EVENING AND APPEAR TO BE GAINING A STRONGER COLD POOL WITH TIME. FARTHER N ACROSS ERN CO...TSTMS HAVE DIMINISHED. LATEST RUC/NAM HAVE BEEN ALLUDING TO AN INCREASE IN THE LLJ ACROSS WRN TX THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND LATEST VWP/PROFILERS ARE BEARING THIS OUT WITH 25-35 KT SELY FLOW AT LBB/AMA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SSEWD PROPAGATION TO THE MATURING MCS...INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALONG THE OLD FRONT SITUATED NW-SE ACROSS THE TX PNHDL. THIS WILL BRING ENHANCED THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE AMA-LBB-CVS CORRIDOR BETWEEN 0245-0400Z. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 612 EXPIRES AT 03Z. BUT...A FEW COUNTIES IN THE FAR WRN TX PNHDL COUNTIES MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND 03Z PENDING STORM EVOLUTION. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE WS 615. ..RACY.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 39290271 36910253 36580163 36349995 33910036 33830278 34130436 34430464 36620426 37430447 38070473 38890415 39250360 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 02:44:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 21:44:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507070255.j672thtA006556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070253 GAZ000-ALZ000-070500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1682 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0953 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL/GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 614... VALID 070253Z - 070500Z ...TORNADO THREAT PERSISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 614 SOUTH AND EAST OF ATLANTA. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS NEAR RANDOLPH COUNTY... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM ATLANTA INDICATES SEVERAL VERY STRONG LONG LIVED ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES NOTED IN SRM VELOCITY DATA. AS OF 0245...THERE WERE SEVERAL MESOCYCLONES NOTED IN DATA FROM BUTTS COUNTY NWD THROUGH ROCKDALE COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ATLANTA SOUNDING WAS NOT AVAILABLE...BIRMINGHAM SOUNDING HAD AROUND 60 KT NELY FLOW OBSERVED AT ABOUT 500 M AGL AND VAD WIND DATA FROM LOCAL RADARS SUGGEST STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION...WITH GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OBSERVED AT MACON. GREATEST SHORT TERM THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED BETWEEN I-85 AND I-75. WATCH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF STORMS CONTINUE TO MAKE EWD PROGRESS...ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. ..TAYLOR.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX... 34408378 34008615 31928617 32398378 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 04:04:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 23:04:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507070415.j674FLro010466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070413 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070413 OKZ000-TXZ000-070545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1683 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615... VALID 070413Z - 070545Z COLD POOL IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NOW WITH STORMS MOVING SSEWD AT AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS THE TX PNHDL. TSTMS SHOULD FAVOR THE N-S ORIENTED INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED ACROSS THE SRN TX PNHDL INTO THE S PLAINS OF W TX AFTER 06Z. IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT THE STORMS TO REMAIN STRONG AS THEY MOVE SWD WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND LARGE HAIL. THE CORRIDOR FROM KCDS-KLBB SHOULD SEE THE STORMS BY 06Z...WITH LOCATIONS S OF THERE EXPERIENCING POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AFTER 06Z. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY TO INCLUDE THE TX S PLAINS. ..RACY.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 33930039 32550049 32090098 32060226 32380289 33900266 36480201 36499991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 05:37:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 00:37:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507070547.j675lmFX015567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070547 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070547 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-070615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1684 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA/WRN SC/SWRN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 614... VALID 070547Z - 070615Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN GA INTO WRN SC AND SWRN NC. REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATED LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH A COUPLE OF STORMS IN NERN GA...AND ALSO SWD INTO CENTRAL GA WITH THE LEADING CONVECTIVE BAND. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS T.D. CINDY IS PROGGED TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS NRN GA OVERNIGHT. 35-40 KT LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL/NRN GA ATTM IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EWD TOWARD WRN SC/SWRN NC BY 12Z. NELY SURFACE WINDS...ALTHOUGH WEAK... ACROSS WRN SC WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS THE LLJ NOSES INTO NRN GA/WRN SC OVERNIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL INHIBIT THE THREAT FOR HAIL...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH T.D. CINDY. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... 32298463 34368510 35168430 35388196 35038069 33818135 32758264 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 07:30:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 02:30:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507070740.j677ewsW028170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070740 TXZ000-NMZ000-070845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX INCLUDING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616... VALID 070740Z - 070845Z DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS WW 616. IF CURRENT TRENDS OF STORM INTENSITY/NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COLD POOL GENERATION CONTINUE...THEN A NEW WW WOULD BE REQUIRED ESE OF WW 616. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THREE MINI-BOW STRUCTURES /1.) EAST OF CDS...2.) EXTENDING FROM HALL TO NRN CROSBY COUNTIES...AND 3.) EXTENDING FROM SWISHER TO BAILEY COUNTIES/ TRACKING TO THE SE. THE BOW ECHO EXTENDING FROM HALL TO NRN CROSBY COUNTIES WAS THE STRONGEST GIVEN ITS SEWD MOVEMENT AT 35-40 KT. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN MOST LIKELY WITH COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOW...REACHING COTTLE TO STONEWALL COUNTIES BY 09Z. SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THESE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH INFLOW OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/SERN TX COMBINED WITH 35 KT OF NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER WRN TX IS RESULTING IN STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR FOR CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXTENDED ALONG A LINE FROM FOARD COUNTY TO 25 S LBB AND THEN WWD INTO SERN NM. 25-30 KT OF SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER WRN TX WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEW STRONG AND/OR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THESE ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE STRENGTHENING OF THE COLD POOL WITH THIS MCS. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34800321 34780017 34410001 34069964 33189950 32439977 32020015 32030306 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 08:54:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 03:54:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507070905.j67953Ed001527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070903 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-071000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1686 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0403 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616... VALID 070903Z - 071000Z WW 616 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10Z. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW 616 AND EAST OF THIS WW EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST WITH THE LEADING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...NOW EXTENDING FROM WICHITA COUNTY WSWWD TO LUBBOCK COUNTY. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO DECREASING...GIVEN WEAKENING TREND IN ONGOING STORMS. THUS...WW 616 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10Z...WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW DOWNSTREAM WW UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34060321 34270183 34840149 34739990 34329926 33969826 33509794 32919856 32539975 32040020 32060300 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 09:34:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 04:34:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507070945.j679jg1f018920@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070944 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-071115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1687 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA/UPSTATE SC/WRN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 617... VALID 070944Z - 071115Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAINS LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAVE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. AT 09Z...T.D. CINDY WAS LOCATED ABOUT 30 NW ATL WITH A CONTINUED TRACK TO THE NE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM CINDY ACROSS NRN GA...AND THEN NEWD ACROSS UPSTATE SC INTO WRN NC. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR REMAIN VERY STRONG ACROSS NERN GA INTO WRN NC...SUPPORTING A TORNADO THREAT. BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES RESULTING IN A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AREA WSR-88D VWP DATA CONTINUED TO INDICATE LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS DOWNSTREAM OF CINDY...WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES CLOSE TO 300 M2/S2 AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN LOW LEVEL ROTATION IN THE BAND OF STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SWRN PART OF WW 617. WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED...WITH THE GREATEST SHORT-TERM TORNADO LIKELIHOOD FROM NERN GA NEWD TO SWRN/WRN NC ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... 33478364 35048360 36248043 34648033 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 12:33:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 07:33:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507071243.j67ChvZs002575@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071243 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-071315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN GA INTO WRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SC/NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 617... VALID 071243Z - 071315Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON TO REPLACE VALID PORTION OF WW 617 AND EXTEND ENE INTO NC. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS COMBINED WITH SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTED THE CENTER OF T.D. CINDY WAS LOCATED OVER NRN GA /TO THE N OF ATL/ WITH A CONTINUED NEWD TRACK EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS FAR WRN NC. A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM CINDY TO WRN SC NEAR ANDERSON... AND THEN EXTENDED NEWD ALONG THE PIEDMONT REGION OF SC/NC INTO CENTRAL VA. AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS UNDER WAY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SC INTO PARTS OF NC...GENERALLY ALONG/E OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH 55 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS...SUPPORTING STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASING TREND IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER SC/NC. DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM OF CINDY INTO NC FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC... 33288174 33118236 33328310 34118287 34848284 35188303 35578215 36258112 36588025 36507891 36007858 34557954 33348087 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 14:23:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 09:23:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507071433.j67EXnut004389@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071433 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071433 TXZ000-071630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1689 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0933 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071433Z - 071630Z STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP ESEWD THROUGH E CNTRL TX. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS MORNING A SMALL MCS WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL TX JUST W OF THE DALLAS AREA. ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM DALLAS SWWD TO NEAR LLANO. ACTIVITY IS MOVING ESEWD AT AROUND 30 KT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV ACCOMPANYING THE MCS. VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WEAK AMBIENT FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...VWP DATA SUGGEST A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV OVER N CNTRL TX. MULTICELL CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DIAL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30929758 31359741 32039694 32749658 32489524 31189507 30489596 30519709 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 16:26:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 11:26:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507071637.j67Gaxst021139@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071633 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071633 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-071830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1690 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SC THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL NC AND SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 618... VALID 071633Z - 071830Z THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL EXPECTED FROM WRN/W CNTRL NC THROUGH SW VA NEXT FEW HOURS. LATE THIS MORNING A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF T.S. CINDY WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN NC AND IS MOVING SLOWLY NEWD. WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NCNTRL NC. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS WRN NC INTO SWRN VA JUST NE OF THE LOW CENTER ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FROM WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE BACKED TO ELY. THIS AXIS OF STRONG SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO N CNTRL NC AND S CNTRL VA. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WRN NC SWD THROUGH WRN SC. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH STORMS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE AS STORMS LIFT NWD AND INTERACT WITH THE ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SPREADING NWD THROUGH MUCH OF CNTRL NC E OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND. INCREASED SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP... 36938023 36587907 35638042 34798191 35368230 36368135 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 17:09:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 12:09:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507071720.j67HKawx016197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071718 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071717 NCZ000-VAZ000-071845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1691 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC THROUGH SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071717Z - 071845Z SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN NC THROUGH SERN VA THIS AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM SERN VA INTO NERN NC IN VICINITY OF A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...BUT WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES MAY IMPROVE FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS REMNANTS OF CINDY CONTINUE NEWD. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 36007536 36417664 37077826 35847797 35497546  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 18:52:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 13:52:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507071902.j67J2u2v019877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071902 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071901 SDZ000-WYZ000-072030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1692 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WY AND SD BLACK HILLS REGION / WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071901Z - 072030Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY...WITH A LESSER THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW MAY BE NEEDED NEXT COUPLE HOURS. TCU DEVELOPING OVER BLACK HILLS WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. MODIFIED RAP SOUNDING INDICATES CAPPING IS GONE...SUGGESTING STORMS MAY PERSIST AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. MORNING LBF SOUNDING INDICATES LARGER MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN RAP WITH 850 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 13C. GIVEN CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION...SURFACE HEATING...AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW SLOW STORM MOTIONS...WITH SPLITTING CELLS POSSIBLE. DECREASING SUB-CLOUD LAYER RH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL. ..JEWELL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR... 44560433 45430355 45490231 43100123 43060212 43110365 43680390 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 19:53:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 14:53:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507072003.j67K3nnM027636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072001 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-072200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1693 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...ERN NM AND THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072001Z - 072200Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH SERN CO AND ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND CO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IS DESTABILIZING WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. TENDENCY FOR UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD HAS RESULTED IN SOMEWHAT WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW WITH A MORE NLY COMPONENT AND MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. THEREFOR...STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-30 KT. MULTICELL STORMS STRUCTURES SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STORM TYPE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO. ..DIAL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 32750506 35180433 38450386 38160251 32830325  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 19:59:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 14:59:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507072010.j67KAMnc031958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072008 WYZ000-MTZ000-072215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1694 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SWRN MT / EXTREME NWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072008Z - 072215Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER SWRN MT AND NWRN WY. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SW AND CENTRAL MT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE LOWER 50S WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING AND 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS IN PLACE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. BILLINGS VWP INDICATES STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS AS WELL...SUGGESTING SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ..JEWELL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 45760751 43670705 43810757 44380899 45121164 45741185 46741081 47251044 47480999 47370906 47330851 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 20:37:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 15:37:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507072048.j67KmNNP022183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072047 VAZ000-NCZ000-072245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1695 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC THROUGH SERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 619... VALID 072047Z - 072245Z STORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED OVER WW 619. HOWEVER...THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD EVENING... ESPECIALLY OVER WRN PARTS OF 619. RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER NERN NC AND SERN VA. HOWEVER...PRIMARY RAINBAND ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF CINDY IS MOVING NEWD THROUGH W CNTRL NC AT 20-25 KT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 619 AFTER 23Z. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO SHIFT NEWD TOWARD E CNTRL NC THROUGH SRN VA AS THE REMNANTS OF CINDY CONTINUES NEWD. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF THE E-W BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NRN NC. ..DIAL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH... 36097781 36867848 37737819 36547689 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 21:51:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 16:51:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507072202.j67M2LQY000827@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072201 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-MDZ000-072300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC AND SRN/ERN VA AND PORTIONS OF SRN MD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 619...620... VALID 072201Z - 072300Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW OVER WRN NC WITH MAIN SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NEWD ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA. THETA-E AXIS EXTENDS NWD FROM NC TO ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOB 70F. A CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS VCNTY THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO SWRN VA AND THE BLACKSBURG VWP SHOWS 0-1KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXTENDS EWD ALONG THE MAIN WARM FRONT INTO SRN VA/NRN NC. TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS NC AND MOVE NEWD INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. MANY CELLS ARE EXHIBITING LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD FARTHER NEWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN VA AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS PARTS OF MD. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT WHERE THE REMNANTS OF CINDY MOVED OVER AL/GA. BUT...VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MAGNITUDE OF CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS N OF THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCHES. AS SUCH...MORE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED. ..RACY.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MHX... 36258117 37727857 35917861 34528111 37757848 36937548 35187554 36007846 36897953 37467849 37417767 37127708 36727705 36477746 36237822 35837926 36338000 38157862 38647814 39047767 38687701 38167682 37457718 37737869 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 22:37:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 17:37:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507072248.j67Mm8Nk023262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072247 NDZ000-080045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1697 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072247Z - 080045Z WE ARE MONITORING THE AREA FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. A WW WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXISTS AT THE SURFACE BUT STORMS HAVE NOT YET FORMED DESPITE LACK OF CIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC OA FIELDS SUGGEST SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAY BE COMING OUT CURRENTLY. THUS...STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOON WITHIN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. VWP AND PROFILER DATA SHOW ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VEERING LOW LEVELS AND ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..JEWELL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 47010330 49010290 49009921 47039952 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 23:38:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 18:38:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507072349.j67NnBxg019441@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072348 SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-080115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1698 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN ND / WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621... VALID 072348Z - 080115Z VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH HAIL AND AN OCCASIONAL DOWNBURST LIKELY. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY EVOLVE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...INCREASING CIN AND THE LACK OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..JEWELL.. 07/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42990108 43000400 46960401 46970105 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 00:08:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 19:08:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507080019.j680JcEk000456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080018 KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-080115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1699 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM / WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622... VALID 080018Z - 080115Z ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOW OF EXISTING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN SELY 20-25 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND EXISTENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC AND NAM MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP ANY PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z AND 00Z AMA SOUNDING SHOWS CAP. THEREFORE...WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..JEWELL.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 33610476 37050427 37030203 33590267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 00:42:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 19:42:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507080052.j680qmUU015763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080051 NCZ000-VAZ000-080145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1700 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NC AND CNTRL ERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 619...620... VALID 080051Z - 080145Z TORNADO WATCHES 619/620 ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. WAKEFIELD VWP CONTINUES TO SHOW 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 230 M2/S2 VCNTY SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS EWD ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM WITHIN THIS ZONE AND EXHIBIT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO ERN VA AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH LATE EVENING AND ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED PENDING THE LONGEVITY OF THE CURRENT STORMS AND COORDINATION WITH LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. MEANWHILE...TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FRONTAL WAVE SWD INTO CNTRL NC HAS BEEN AIDING IN MORE LINEAR BAND OF STORMS FROM THE KRDU VCNTY SWD TO THE NC/SC BORDER AROUND ROCKINGHAM/HAMLET. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY MOVE EWD TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISOLD TORNADOES COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCATED FARTHER N IN VA. ..RACY.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 35058028 36537955 37257944 37777836 36917549 35227551 35917853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 02:47:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 21:47:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507080258.j682waSK006439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080256 NDZ000-080430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1701 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0956 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 623... VALID 080256Z - 080430Z ...THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND ISOLD TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL ND FROM JUST NW OF BISMARCK TO WEST OF DEVILS LAKE... STORMS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AFTER STORM INITIATION BEGAN A COUPLE HOURS AGO. NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS OBSERVED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS...WITH TOPS TO 62000 FEET. AIRMASS BECAME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KT OBSERVED FROM THE 00Z BISMARCK SOUNDING IN ADDITION TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30-35 KT / SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL TSTMS. STRONGEST STORM AS OF 0230Z IS NEAR MERCER COUNTY...ROUGHLY 40-50 MILES NW OF BIS. THIS STORM HAS A STRONG PERSISTENT MESOCYCLONE NOTED IN SRM VELOCITY NOW TRACKING INTO ECNTRL MERCER COUNTY...WITH RECENT REPORTS OF A TORNADO FROM SPOTTERS. LEFT SPLIT FROM PARENT SUPERCELL MOVED INTO WARD CO...AND WILL MOVE INTO MCHENRY CO SHORTLY...WITH THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. NRN STRONGER STORM IN BOTTINEAU CO RECENTLY HAD BASEBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED WITH IT. THREAT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A STRONG MCS. FOR NOW...TORNADO THREAT WILL BE PRESENT WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL OR WIND GUSTS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46809944 46750145 46860211 47840164 49010090 49039892 48199903  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 03:49:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 22:49:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507080400.j6840DbM000931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080356 MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-080530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL NC...SRN MD...ERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 624... VALID 080356Z - 080530Z BROAD FRONTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH SCNTRL VA WITH WARM CONVEYOR PCPN BAND FROM SRN MD TO ERN NC. HODOGRAPH BASED ON WAKEFIELD VWP CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CURVATURE WITH 0-1KM SHEAR AOA 30 KTS. THE WIND PROFILE HAS ALSO IMPROVED SOMEWHAT AS FAR NORTH AS STERLING. RADAR LOOPS SEEM TO SHOW A SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE CIRCULATION VCNTY KRIC AND THE STRONGER TSTMS SEEM TO BE FAVORING THIS FEATURE. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THESE STORMS MOVING UP THE ROUTE 360 CORRIDOR TOWARD SRN MD/MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC THROUGH 06Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN VA AND SRN MD THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE DECREASING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SCNTRL VA AS THE FLOW REGIME VEERS WITH TIME. ..RACY.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH... 35967896 38287741 38297526 35837707 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 04:08:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 23:08:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507080419.j684JRE2009115@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080415 NDZ000-080545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080415Z - 080545Z STRONGEST TSTMS OVER ND APPEAR TO BE FAVORING NRN PORTIONS OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 623 AND HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING SINCE 04Z. THE STORMS APPROACHING THE BISMARK VCNTY ALSO APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/LLJ AXIS SHOULD SHIFT/TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING A HIGHER RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL NORTH OF THE BORDER. FARTHER S...THE STORMS HAVE YET TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL AND DO NOT SEEM TO BE ACCELERATING TO THE E OR SE ATTM. NONETHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES DEPICT SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTMS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT OVER AT LEAST CNTRL ND THROUGH 07Z. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW INTENSE/SEVERE THE MCS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD INTO ERN ND. IF IT MAINTAINS INTENSITY...ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM. BUT ATTM...THE SHORT TERM SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE CONFINED WITHIN THE CURRENT WW. ..RACY.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46900176 48960109 49039852 48109730 46249807 46100077 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 17:44:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 12:44:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507081755.j68HtGZ7028149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081754 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081754 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-082000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI/NE IND AND NRN/CNTRL OH INTO NW PA/EXTREME WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081754Z - 082000Z ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NE IND AND NRN/CNTRL OH INTO NW PA/EXTREME WRN NY. A SEVERE WATCH SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED. 12Z UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS DEPICT COLD CORE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER FAR SRN ONTARIO/ERN GREAT LAKES...CHARACTERIZED BY -15/-16 C TEMPS AT 500 MB. ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING SWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI. GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION...AIRMASS IS ALREADY UNCAPPED ACROSS THE REGION BASED UPON MODIFIED 12Z DTX/BUF RAOBS. A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 2000 J/KG MUCAPE. IN SPITE OF MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /20 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OR LESS/ OWING TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW...COLD TEMPS ALOFT/DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT PULSE-TYPE ISOLD SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE OF SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... 43588292 42318212 42508076 42757911 41837894 40348053 39878227 40148460 40998545 41798555 43408439 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 18:45:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 13:45:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507081855.j68IthKZ030914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081854 FLZ000-082100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1705 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA KEYS/FAR SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081854Z - 082100Z WITH THREAT FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS/FAR SRN FL PENINSULA WITHIN THE HOUR. TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS/FAR SRN FL PENINSULA THE EVENING WITH APPROACH OF OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DENNIS. 18Z KEY WEST SOUNDING DEPICTS INCREASINGLY DEEP ELY FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SINCE THIS MORNING...WITH APPROX 15-20 KTS OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN 18Z EYW RAOB/KEY WEST WSR-88D VAD DATA. AMIDST A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE/SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... 26528232 26688186 26268011 25018008 24488100 24528219 25688214 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 19:41:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 14:41:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507081952.j68Jq1LO031261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081950 TXZ000-NMZ000-082145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN THROUGH FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081950Z - 082145Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IF THEY CAN DEVELOP EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND IF IT APPEARS STORMS MAY SURVIVE EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM THROUGH W TX. THE ATMOSPHERE E OF HIGHER TERRAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE CAPPED. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NM IS RESULTING IN WEAK MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT. AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WEAK DUE TO THE MODEST MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY AT 6 KM IS RESULTING IN 25 TO 30 KT DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE WEAK UPPER FLOW AND PRESENCE OF CAP SUGGEST STORMS MAY INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WITH TIME STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING FARTHER EWD AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ..DIAL.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 29590324 31580482 33270559 33930489 33050395 32030297 30630167 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 20:06:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 15:06:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507082017.j68KH8Me013911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082013 COR TXZ000-NMZ000-082145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM THROUGH FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082013Z - 082145Z CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IF THEY CAN DEVELOP EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND IF IT APPEARS STORMS MAY SURVIVE EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM THROUGH W TX. THE ATMOSPHERE E OF HIGHER TERRAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE CAPPED. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NM IS RESULTING IN WEAK MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT. AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WEAK DUE TO THE MODEST MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY AT 6 KM IS RESULTING IN 25 TO 30 KT DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE WEAK UPPER FLOW AND PRESENCE OF CAP SUGGEST STORMS MAY INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WITH TIME STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING FARTHER EWD AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ..DIAL.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 29590324 31580482 33270559 33930489 33050395 32030297 30630167  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 20:21:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 15:21:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507082031.j68KVkb0022821@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082029 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1707 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD EXTREME ERN WY AND NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082029Z - 082230Z THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SD AS WELL AS FARTHER SWD WITH STORMS SPREADING EWD OUT OF WY. THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THREAT SUGGESTS A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SD AND ERN WY AS CAP WEAKENS AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC FORCING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. HOWEVER...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY 15 KT AOA 4 KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 25 TO 30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY MULTICELL STORMS AND ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 07/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS... 42160441 44850377 44770277 43900251 42000339 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 00:15:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 19:15:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507090026.j690QOMB002830@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090025 FLZ000-090230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA KEYS/SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 625... VALID 090025Z - 090230Z TORNADO WATCH 625 CONTINUES UNTIL 09Z FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS/SRN FAR FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH MINI-SUPERCELL/ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL INCREASING REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. AS HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NW FROM WRN CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...OUTER BAND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS/ISOLD TORNADOES EXPECTED TO INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND SRN FL PENINSULA. MIAMI/KEY WEST WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES REFLECT A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL ELY FLOW SINCE THE AFTERNOON...WITH 50-65 KTS ALREADY EVIDENT IN 1-4 KM LAYER AS OF 00Z. IN CONJUNCTION WITH 00Z MFL /MIAMI/ AND EYW /KEY WEST/ RAOBS...0-1 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 625. ALTHOUGH VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA HAS ONLY SHOWN LIMITED INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION AS OF EARLY EVENING...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR/CONFLUENCE WITHIN OUTER BANDS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION/ISOLD TORNADOES REMAINDER OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR TRENDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR NECESSITY OF NORTHWARD EXPANSION/REISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN FL PENINSULA. ..GUYER.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... 25057999 24428091 24368203 25388235 26378258 26818226 26878162 26167962 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 15:40:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 10:40:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507091551.j69FpUrm019670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091550 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091550 FLZ000-091745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1709 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 627... VALID 091550Z - 091745Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA. THE GREATEST THREAT NEXT FEW HOURS APPEARS TO BE OVER SRN AND CNTRL FL...BUT THE GREATER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATE THIS MORNING THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED ABOUT 160 MI OFF THE S FL COAST AND IS MOVING NWWD AT AROUND 12 KT. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR MORE INFORMATION ON DENNIS. OUTER RAINBANDS FROM DENNIS ARE LIFTING NWD THROUGH SRN AND S CNTRL FL AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO CNTRL FL THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS NE OF THE CENTER OVER MUCH OF SRN FL WITH ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING AND INCREASING TO 50+ KT THROUGH 1 KM. SATELLITE DATA IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS BETWEEN THE BANDS WHICH WILL AID IN SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. STORMS MAY THEREFORE UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... 24748114 25918164 27218256 27958257 28008176 25817982 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 16:11:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 11:11:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507091621.j69GLj13001220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091621 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091620 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-091815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1710 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...CNTRL AND ERN PA THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091620Z - 091815Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN NY THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN PA AND NRN AND CNTRL NJ. ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW. THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NY DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS FEATURE. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 6 KM FROM -14 TO -16 C IN VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM NWRN PA THROUGH SRN NY...AND ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD TOWARD THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY AND GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR HAIL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41847754 41837590 41787356 40747367 39827462 39897708 40737800 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 19:57:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 14:57:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507092008.j69K8RBH002455@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092007 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-092200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S CNTRL MT AND A SMALL PART OF ERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092007Z - 092200Z ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL MT MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT WHERE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED IN VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM AN EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HEATING IS PROMOTING DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER SWRN-SCNTRL MT WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. A BAND OF 50+ KT MID LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE 40+ KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR... SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE STORMS WITH INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION MAY ALSO AUGMENT THE THREAT FOR HAIL. WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND TENDENCY FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO MIX OUT WITH TIME MAY SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS. ..DIAL.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 46700839 46321133 44441356 44121255 44881088 45080944 45110703 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 20:10:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 15:10:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507092021.j69KLCdP007252@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092020 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-092145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1712 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092020Z - 092145Z ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NM AND SERN CO. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM/SERN CO. WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY THESE STORMS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WELL MIXED AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IS PRESENT ACROSS THE PLAINS AREA...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE AROUND 50F. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST. ..IMY.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... 33000559 34840572 36800504 37960433 37810292 35980281 33460439 32840495 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 20:32:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 15:32:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507092043.j69KhU60017084@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092042 NDZ000-MTZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT AND EXTREME WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092042Z - 092245Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER S CNTRL MT THIS AFTERNOON THEN NEWD THROUGH ERN MT AND PARTS OF WRN ND THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN MT SWWD INTO SERN AND S CNTRL MT JUST N OF BILLINGS. SRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING SWD WHILE THE NRN PORTION CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD THROUGH ERN MT. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S N OF THE FRONT...AND AS THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES SWD...MOIST NLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER S CNTRL MT. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING UPSLOPE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S CNTRL MT. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS PROMOTING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. FARTHER NE ACROSS ERN MT THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR REMAINS CAPPED...BUT THE CAP SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR EXCEED 100F. THE WEAKENING CAP AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT OVER ERN MT DURING THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO WRN ND. ..DIAL.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 46800793 47420624 48810499 48950403 48350363 47010423 45860548 45250726 45940915 46420914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 20:45:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 15:45:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507092056.j69KuFXU022490@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092054 TXZ000-092230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1714 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CAPROCK VICINITY OF NW TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 092054Z - 092230Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/PULSE-TYPE SEVERE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...INVOF CAPROCK REGION OF NW TEXAS REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. REMNANT MCV EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SOUTH OF AMARILLO TO LUBBOCK IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS NW TX AT THIS TIME. OWING TO AMPLE INSOLATION AND LOW/MID 90S F SFC TEMPS...DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS INVOF CAPROCK HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CU FIELD DEEPENING OVER THE PAST HOUR. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH. IN SPITE OF AMPLE INSTABILITY...JAYTON TX PROFILER DEPICTS RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /15 KTS 0-6 KM/. A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/PULSE-TYPE SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN WEAK SHEAR/SLOW STORM MOTIONS. ..GUYER.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 35310112 35340024 34300001 32259945 32009995 32470083 32680126 33130156 33430154 34520127 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 21:59:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 16:59:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507092209.j69M9ctx018353@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092208 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-100015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1715 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW SD INTO WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092208Z - 100015Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SURFACE HEATING APPEAR TO HAVE BECOME MAXIMIZED EAST OF THERMAL LOW. ONGOING ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BASED IN HOT...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE DEW POINTS SPREADS. HOWEVER...PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSE ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...ACTIVITY WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE. SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE IN THE 70S...CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SHEAR PROFILES MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW... 45890372 47080409 48290353 48770226 48110135 46510145 45310134 44600325 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 22:04:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 17:04:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507092214.j69MEhtd020077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092213 FLZ000-100015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 628... VALID 092213Z - 100015Z TORNADO WATCH 628 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...WITH MINI-SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL LIKELY INCREASING THIS EVENING. HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NW/RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH OUTER BANDS EXTENDING INTO MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA/KEYS. AS OF 2215Z/615 PM EDT...VOLUMETRIC RADAR/SATELLITE DATA IN CONJUCTION WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR SHOW A DISTINCT CHARACTER CHANGE/INTENSIFICATION OF OUTER BAND CONVECTION ARCING SE-NW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...ROUGHLY ALONG A VERO BEACH-ORLANDO TO WEST OF OCALA/GAINESVILLE CORRIDOR. THIS IS LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE HURRICANE...AS WELL AS INCREASE IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION INTO THE E/NE PERIPHERY OF DENNIS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS/ISOLD TORNADOES PER WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES...WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS /OR GREATER/ MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA. GIVEN 03Z EXPIRATION...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REISSUED LATER THIS EVENING. BEFORE THEN...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY NECESSARY NWD EXPANSION/REORIENTATION OF TORNADO WATCH. ..GUYER.. 07/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX...TAE... 30048486 30698435 30458277 29118175 27048097 25388036 24648068 24568147 27468308 29298393 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 16:59:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 11:59:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507101709.j6AH9nEc002108@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101708 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101708 FLZ000-GAZ000-101815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL AND NWRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 631... VALID 101708Z - 101815Z TORNADO WATCH 631 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH BEFORE 18Z THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR TAMPA NWD THROUGH MUCH OF NRN FL AND INTO SERN GA. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HURRICANE DENNIS WAS NEARING LANDFALL NEAR THE EXTREME WRN FL PANHANDLE. SEE LATEST DISCUSSION FROM NHC ON DENNIS. OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS CONTINUE LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN FL PENINSULA. LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW SOME EMBEDDED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITHIN THESE BANDS ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE...BUT WITH TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INLAND. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DRYER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE OUTER SERN QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE AND INTO THE NERN GULF. THIS MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING AND SOME INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. TORNADO THREAT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NWD AS DENNIS CONTINUES INLAND ON A NNWWD TRACK. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX... 31928155 28618171 28058262 28658284 31558285 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 17:38:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 12:38:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507101749.j6AHnQfW018098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101748 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101748 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-101845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1718 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN AL...MUCH OF THE FL PANHANDLE...W CNTRL THROUGH SWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 630... VALID 101748Z - 101845Z TORNADO WATCH 630 WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH BEFORE 19Z THAT WILL INCLUDE THE FL PANHANDLE...CNTRL AND SRN AL THROUGH W CNTRL AND SW GA. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NWD FARTHER INTO AL AND GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HURRICANE DENNIS MOVES INLAND ON A NNWWD TRACK. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC ON DENNIS. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS TYPICALLY WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS. CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST RAINBANDS WITH SOME DISCRETE STORM STRUCTURES EXIST E OF THE CENTER AND ARE LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE ERN FL PANHANDLE. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INLAND AWAY FROM THE WARM GULF WATERS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME DRY AIR SPREADING NWD THROUGH THE NERN GULF...AND THIS MIGHT ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL AND SWRN GA. OTHERWISE... WIDESPREAD STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WILL PERSIST N AND E OF THE CENTER...EXPANDING NWD AS DENNIS MOVES INLAND. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30008388 29928512 30468651 30368812 32598827 33488718 32688342 30898310 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 20:16:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 15:16:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507102026.j6AKQhZr024755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102025 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-102230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1719 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE MT/FAR NE WY INTO WRN ND/WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102025Z - 102230Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FROM FAR ERN MT/NE WY INTO THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS...A SEVERE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS LEADING EDGE OF DYNAMIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SPREADING ENE ACROSS ERN MT/NCNTRL WY AT THIS TIME. AS THIS FEATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SE MT/NE WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. GIVEN APPROACHING IMPULSE AND WARM SECTOR CAPPING INVERSION/STRONG CINH EAST OF WCNTRL DAKOTAS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INITIAL/PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED INVOF AND WEST OF SFC REFLECTION OF FRONT ACROSS WRN/WCNTRL ND AND WRN SD. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ALREADY FEATURES INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SW SD INVOF BLACK HILLS...WITH CU FIELD SLOWLY EVOLVING NEWD INTO NCNTRL ND. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS/RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE WITHIN RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIRMASS ALONG/JUST WEST OF SFC FRONT. STRONGEST EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS POST-FRONTAL PER WSR-88D VAD PROFILES/RUC SOUNDINGS...RANGING FROM 25-30 KTS INVOF SFC FRONT TO GREATER THAN 40 KTS ACROSS THE FAR WRN ND/NW SD. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A SEVERE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GUYER.. 07/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 49060282 49090127 48959954 47159985 44610053 43270172 43180300 44170575 45750555 48280329 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 20:48:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 15:48:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507102059.j6AKxWVC005259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102057 TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1720 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE CO/ERN NM/SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102057Z - 102300Z ISOLD SEVERE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE CO/ERN NM INTO SW TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE/SPREAD SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR SE CO/ERN NM REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE ERN NM PLAINS INTO SW TX. IN ADDITION TO THE DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OTHER ISOLD TSTMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR INVOF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/TRANSPECOS REGION NEAR MIDLAND. ALTHOUGH ONLY MODEST W/NW FLOW IS PRESENT IN MID LEVELS...MODERATE S/SE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS PER TUCUMCARI NM PROFILER/RUC SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS. ISOLD NATURE OF SCENARIO SUGGESTS A SEVERE WATCH IS UNLIKELY. ..GUYER.. 07/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... 37310382 37360241 35310269 33840275 32730263 32530072 31130069 30170263 31170477 33150547 35250517 37300434  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 22:13:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 17:13:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507102223.j6AMNwtH006298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102222 SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-FLZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-110015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...AL...GA ...NE MS...SRN TN...WRN NC AND SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 632...633... VALID 102222Z - 110015Z RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING... TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WW TO THE NORTH OF 632 AND 633. STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS IS NOW INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTH/NORTHEAST OF MOBILE. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST IS VERY MOIST/NEAR SATURATED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR OR ABOVE 70F. THUS...EVEN WITH WEAKENING LIKELY AS SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING...LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN BROAD SWATH ON ITS NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY. TORNADO THREAT MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AS RISK GRADUALLY INCREASES NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. ..KERR.. 07/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 34918879 35058803 35258671 35128435 35378326 35158212 34138160 33398157 32468128 31398209 30618307 30528478 31628606 32008783 32508880 33168937 33738964 34308934 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 23:16:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 18:16:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507102326.j6ANQdZe029543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102324 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-110130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE/FAR NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102324Z - 110130Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS/PULSE-TYPE LARGE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ON SRN PERIPHERY OF NRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...IN PRESENCE OF HOT/WELL-MIXED AIRMASS...TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OF SE WY/NEB PANHANDLE INTO FAR NE CO. AMBIENT AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS/MODIFIED 12Z LBF RAOB SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME NE CO. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WLYS ARE WEAK...SELY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE CONTRIBUTING TO VERTICAL SHEAR PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KTS. DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS WITH DCAPE OF 1200-1500 J/KG SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/ISOLD DAMAGING GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PULSE-TYPE LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. LARGELY DIURNALLY ENHANCED...THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AROUND/SOON AFTER SUNSET. ..GUYER.. 07/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42830328 42850162 42010128 40050234 39980304 41160412 41740428 42610430 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 00:44:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 19:44:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507110055.j6B0tT95028591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110054 NDZ000-SDZ000-110230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1723 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND AND CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634... VALID 110054Z - 110230Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 634 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS/ISOLD SUPERCELLS -- WITH ONLY LIMITED E/NE MOVEMENT -- CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANGLING NNE-SSW ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. AMBIENT AIRMASS INVOF/AHEAD OF THE STORMS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE...HIGHLIGHTED BY EXTREME 5000 J/KG MUCAPE OBSERVED IN 00Z BISMARK RAOB. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO/MAXIMIZED WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH CONTINUAL QUICK EVOLUTION OF LINEAR SEGMENTS EXPECTED. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET /40 KTS/ ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS DURING THE 03Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. THIS INCREASING LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME AND DEVELOPMENT OF MESOSCALE COLD POOLS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A GRADUAL EWD EXPANSION OF ACTIVITY THROUGH REMAINDER OF WW 634 INTO ERN ND/THROUGH CNTRL SD. ..GUYER.. 07/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 48470066 48929937 48859809 48059792 47199807 46179871 44969902 44329929 43230010 43290120 44130159 46170127 47130129 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 02:59:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 21:59:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507110310.j6B3AMFY017514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110308 GAZ000-ALZ000-110415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AL/GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 632...633... VALID 110308Z - 110415Z PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. AN ISOLATED TORNADO TONIGHT IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT RISK APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OF DENNIS...NOW SOUTHWEST OF SELMA AL...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD TREK ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NEAR CIRCULATION ARE STILL LARGE...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS POSSIBLE MITIGATING EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH...GIVEN NEAR SATURATED/MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES THROUGH THE MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERE...IS MINIMIZING BUOYANCY OF BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS. IT SEEMS ANY APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON RETURN OF MID/UPPER 70S DEW POINTS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW. THIS COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LOW...NORTH OF MONTGOMERY THROUGH THE BIRMINGHAM/TUSCALOOSA AREAS...WHERE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE. HOWEVER...PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING MAY BE TOO LOW TO CONTINUE A TORNADO WATCH. ..KERR.. 07/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB... 34088770 34028654 33508569 33058503 31968562 31978641 32368724 33468825 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 03:42:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 22:42:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507110353.j6B3rEwi001693@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110351 NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-110515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634... VALID 110351Z - 110515Z POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS/HAIL MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND WW EXPIRATION ...BUT NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BROKEN LINE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION...IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR NORTHERN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...HAS BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES... AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...INFLUENCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND STRENGTHENING INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS ALREADY APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO DIMINISHING TRENDS TO ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. STORMS ARE SLOWER TO DIMINISH WHERE LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS STRONGEST...NORTH NORTHEAST OF WEAKENING...ELONGATED SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BY 06Z...MOST INTENSE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST/NORTHWEST OF GRAND FORKS...BEFORE DIMINISHING/ DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ..KERR.. 07/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS... 48939751 47709817 45799888 44349913 43080009 41940065 40950172 41540297 42860280 43750196 44770083 46350107 47320102 49030037 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 15:04:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 10:04:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507111515.j6BFF3hX020076@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111514 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111513 SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-111615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN AL/CENTRAL AND NRN GA/UPSTATE SC/FAR SWRN NC/SRN AND SERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111513Z - 111615Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN GA/FAR ERN AL AND NWD TO UPSTATE SC TO PARTS OF SRN-SERN TN. A WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS OVER FAR NERN MS ALONG THE TN BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS SRN TN INTO FAR WRN NC. SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS/ZONES OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDED SEWD FROM THE CENTER OF DENNIS ACROSS SRN/SERN TN INTO ERN GA AND SWD JUST E OF THE AL/GA BORDER. SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN...WHERE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. AREA VWPS PER WSR-88DS SHOW STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS FROM CENTRAL/NRN GA INTO TN WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 300 M2/S2...SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL ROTATION... ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND WARM FRONT. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS ERN AL INTO WRN/NRN GA AND MIDDLE/ERN TN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 07/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN... 35938424 35758322 35338235 34648183 33568210 32278280 31598383 31448476 31998532 32918550 34338579 35998682 36098539 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 18:52:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 13:52:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507111902.j6BJ2f9W012134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111900 MEZ000-112030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1727 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111900Z - 112030Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SSW ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN ME THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN ISOLATED THREAT AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...WW IS NOT EXPECTED. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ORIENTED NEARLY N-S ALONG THE ERN ME/CANADIAN BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT/COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE EXTENT OF THE ME COAST. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SWD OVER NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ME IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS OVER ME IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED...BUT A 50 KT NNWLY SPEED MAX WITH THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT BOTH LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. THUS...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..PETERS.. 07/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 43527008 44766991 45896908 46126783 45596741 44816694 44436736 43986889 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 19:15:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 14:15:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507111926.j6BJQWTr028144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111924 MNZ000-NDZ000-112130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1728 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111924Z - 112130Z ISOLD SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW/NCNTRL MN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WATCH. ON GLANCING INFLUENCE OF MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO SHORTWAVE TROUGH...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW/NCNTRL MN. AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...AMPLE INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL THROUGH THE 80S/LOWER 90S F...AMIDST MOIST UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS. MODIFIED 12Z INTERNATIONAL FALLS/ABERDEEN RAOBS IN CONJUNCTION WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS AIRMASS IS NOW RELATIVELY UNCAPPED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /20-25 KTS/ LARGELY ORIENTED WITH THE COLD FRONT...STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS RATHER QUICKLY AS THEY PROGRESS NEWD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. ..GUYER.. 07/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 47889714 48929702 49109590 49079475 48479310 46679392 46699466 46509503 46799699  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 20:25:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 15:25:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507112036.j6BKaWlq008048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112034 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-112230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE/ECNTRL CO AND SE WY/WRN NEB/FAR NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112034Z - 112230Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF FRONT RANGE/HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD SSEWD REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SWD ACROSS WRN NEB AND FAR SE WY/FAR NE CO...INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SUPPORT EXPANDING TSTM COVERAGE FROM THE SE WY/CO FRONT RANGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN NEB REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AMBIENT AIRMASS IS NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS/LATEST MESOANALYSIS...WITH AS MUCH AS 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN MODEST NWLY FLOW PRESENT ALOFT...ELY COMPONENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH POSSIBILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..GUYER.. 07/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 41150532 41960516 43150484 43640292 41660203 39840184 39200269 38800336 38840470 39500511  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 20:51:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 15:51:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507112101.j6BL1oDW024127@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112058 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-112230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL/SW MN INTO FAR NW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112058Z - 112230Z AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WCNTRL/SW MN INTO FAR NW IA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR NECESSITY OF SEVERE WATCH. TSTMS DEVELOPING INVOF NNE-SSW ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH FAR WRN MN/FAR NW IA. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMBIENT AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ORIENTED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT. WOOD LAKE MN PROFILER AND SIOUX FALLS WSR-88D VWP SUGGEST ONLY 20-25 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW. NEVERTHELESS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 07/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR... 46159590 46219412 44789406 42539538 41949671 42339692 43579661  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 00:24:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 19:24:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507120035.j6C0ZXgO002138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120033 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-120230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0733 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB/ERN CO/WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 635... VALID 120033Z - 120230Z CONTINUE WW. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STORMS SEEM TO BE FORMING PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IS SUPPORTING A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH 25-30 KT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS LIMITED MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER...CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION INTO AT LEAST A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON NOSE OF 25-30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK /BY 02-03Z/. IF THIS OCCURS...ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME... EAST OF SOUTHWESTERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS IN LOWER LEVELS PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND SURFACE COLD POOL EVOLUTION WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUING RISK OF LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 07/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38700423 39750402 41720349 43170309 43200034 38730158  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 17:12:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 12:12:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507121723.j6CHNTiC022699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121720 MSZ000-ARZ000-121845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN AND SERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121720Z - 121845Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS DEVELOPING AND TRACKING TO THE ESE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN INTO SERN AR THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN AR...WITH THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE ESE INTO SERN AR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED SWWD FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF DENNIS ACROSS AR FROM NE-SW AND THEN WWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE IN THE 70S WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL MAINTAIN THIS INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS HEATING WILL SUPPORT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AIDING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS TO THE ESE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SERN AR...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP. ..PETERS.. 07/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 34809358 34919251 34629078 33549110 33619256 34009400  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 17:34:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 12:34:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507121744.j6CHibnM002979@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121744 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121743 OKZ000-KSZ000-122015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1733 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS AND NCENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121743Z - 122015Z CLUSTER OF STG STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ASSOCIATED WITH A SWD MOVING MCV FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS IN NEB MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE SWD AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS SCENTRAL KS AND EVENTUALLY NCENTRAL OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STG STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS /ELLSWORTH AND SALINE COUNTIES/ HAS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED A SMALL COLD POOL. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE KSN WEATHERLAB WHICH INDICATED 40 MPH NLY WINDS RECENTLY AT ELLSWORTH HIGH SCHOOL WITH A TEMP AROUND 71 F WHILE LINCOLN JR/SR HIGH INDICATED SLY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH WITH TEMP AROUND 72 F. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GUST FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM INITIAL STG STORMS. GIVEN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 20-25 KT NLY FLOW THROUGH THE 850-500 MB LAYER AND LITTLE IF ANY SLY COMPONENT IN THE NEAR SFC LAYER...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO KEEP CONVECTION SUSTAINING ITSELF ALONG 25 KT SWD MOVING GUST FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SCENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED. HOWEVER...WITH A SMALL COLD POOL BEGINNING TO BE ESTABLISHED...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GUST FRONT FOR NEW CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AND GRADUALLY INCREASING /ALBEIT MARGINAL/ SVR WIND THREAT SWD INTO SCENTRAL KS AND EVENTUALLY NCENTRAL OK...ESPECIALLY IF INDIVIDUAL ISOLATED CELLS MERGE WITH THE GUST FRONT. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH MID LEVEL DRY POCKET PER 12Z UA ANALYSIS/SOUNDINGS AND 2000-2500 MLCAPE AXIS EXTENDING N-S FROM SCENTRAL KS INTO NCENTRAL OK. ..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38849769 38779840 37999866 36739857 36299849 36139837 36049709 36509648 38069670 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 17:58:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 12:58:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507121809.j6CI9VVE019090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121808 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-122015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PARTS OF MS/AL INTO NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 121808Z - 122015Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL MS/AL INTO NRN GA. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1.5-2 INCHES PER HOUR... WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE SRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE REMNANT FLOW REGIME OF DENNIS FROM AR TO TN TO ERN KY/OH. SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NERN GA SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AL INTO CENTRAL MS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S. GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP 20-25 KT WSWLY WINDS...STORM MODE WILL BE LINEAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATES WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT...WITH PRE-EXISTING MOISTURE LADEN SOIL CONDITIONS SUGGESTING A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR THESE GUSTS TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. HIGH PW VALUES /1.75 TO 2 INCH/ PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. ..PETERS.. 07/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN... 34668407 34968341 34258278 33148389 32258622 31978840 32208950 32588963 33188704 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 18:14:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 13:14:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507121825.j6CIPHPG029547@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121823 NYZ000-122030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN...CENTRAL AND ERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121823Z - 122030Z ISOLATED DMGG WINDS GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY MOVE GENERALLY SWWD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO CANADA JUST NORTH OF U.S BORDER. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDED SE FROM THIS LOW INTO SERN NY. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY WARM/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AXIS WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...REGION REMAINS ON THE WLY FRINGE OF MODERATE NLY FLOW ALOFT AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR HAIL AS WELL. UNLESS CONVECTION CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH STORM SCALE PROCESSES...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 44797441 43927371 42327365 41797393 41877475 42197558 42177619 42997616 44267594  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 20:00:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 15:00:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507122011.j6CKBF6f001689@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122010 COZ000-NMZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122010Z - 122215Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL SFC BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OF THE MORE WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER NRN EL PASO COUNTY NEWD TO JUST WEST OF AKRON. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOW IT/S WWD ADVANCEMENT AND LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A PRE-EXISTING PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE SFC LOW. THIS SHOULD AID IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED TSTM INITIATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DEN METRO AREA BY 22Z. AN ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SERN CO MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS FROM THE RATON RIDGE NEWD TO NEAR LA JUNTA. A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISO DMGG WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...NLY FLOW AROUND 25-30 KTS AS OBSERVED BY PROFILER/VWP DATA BENEATH SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ISOLATED SVR HAIL AS WELL. UNLESS BETTER ORGANIZATION BECOMES EVIDENT...OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT ANTICIPATED WILL PRECLUDE A WW. ..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 40660325 39900479 39000540 38000515 37160453 36980313 37750237 39700226 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 17:27:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 12:27:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507131737.j6DHbsQs010212@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131735 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131735 SCZ000-GAZ000-131900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA / SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131735Z - 131900Z ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN GA INTO MUCH OF SC THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NERN GA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING THIS FEATURE CONTINUING TO TRACK SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO SC. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN AIR MASS THAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK /WSWLY AOB 20 KT/...BUT GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...STORMS WILL TEND TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS ALREADY INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADARS. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE VERY MOIST /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS...WITH ANY COLD POOL GENERATION ENHANCING THIS THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 33778289 34708269 34918209 34798108 34568016 33937914 33417908 32707999 32258079 31838137 32408240 32868285  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 17:44:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 12:44:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507131755.j6DHtCS2022320@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131754 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131754 NCZ000-132030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 131754Z - 132030Z ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES WSWWD AROUND 10-15 KTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HRLY RATES FROM 1-2 IN. WILL BE POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS SERN NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HALIFAX SWD INTO CATARET COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WSWWD AROUND 10 KTS ACROSS ERN NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SUPPORTED BY A STG CONVECTION AND A MODEST COLD POOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S OVER THE SRN OUTER BANKS REGION. FARTHER WEST...ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN AN INCREASING WAA REGIME AHEAD OF CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA CONVECTIVE LINE...EVIDENT BY RECENT CAE VWP AND SFC ANALYSIS. AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WSWWD INTO SERN NC... EXPECT BOUNDARY/ISOLATED CELL COLLISIONS TO ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS 10 KT ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH 20 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THUS UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DMGG MICROBURSTS WITH CELL/BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. ALSO...AS CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SC MOVES ENEWD AROUND 20 KTS...IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF FAR SERN NC AFTER 20Z...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWWD AND ENHANCE THE STRONG/ISO DMGG WIND THREAT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME OVER. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR THREAT...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND TRAINING CELLS EAST OF THE GUST FRONT AND LINE MERGERS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT HRLY RAINFALL RATES ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR. ..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 35277671 36327744 36297810 35287878 34757906 34387905 33897858 33867803 34507742 34717658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 17:49:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 12:49:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507131759.j6DHxdxZ025190@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131757 NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-131900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY AND VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131757Z - 131900Z THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NY AND VT WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED. MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE WW. COMPLEX OF ELEVATED STORMS BETWEEN ART AND PBG HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED AS DOWNDRAFTS HAVE CONGEALED AND STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LATER. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS HAVE RESULTED IN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THAT STRETCHED FROM NEAR PBG TO UCA AND SYR. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL STORMS WITH SOME HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. STRONGER FORCING WILL REMAIN ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WHETHER THE COVERAGE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW. ..IMY.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43247633 43487507 44037389 45167308 44877172 43357231 42147469 42417562  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 17:51:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 12:51:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507131801.j6DI1cYM026746@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131800 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131759 COR NCZ000-132030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 131759Z - 132030Z CORRECTED FOR END OF MIDDLE PARAGRAPH ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES WSWWD AROUND 10-15 KTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HRLY RATES FROM 1-2 IN. WILL BE POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS SERN NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HALIFAX SWD INTO CATARET COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WSWWD AROUND 10 KTS ACROSS ERN NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SUPPORTED BY A STG CONVECTION AND A MODEST COLD POOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S OVER THE SRN OUTER BANKS REGION. FARTHER WEST...ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN AN INCREASING WAA REGIME AHEAD OF CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA CONVECTIVE LINE...EVIDENT BY RECENT CAE VWP AND SFC ANALYSIS. AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WSWWD INTO SERN NC... EXPECT BOUNDARY/ISOLATED CELL COLLISIONS TO ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS 10 KT ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH 20 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THUS UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DMGG MICROBURSTS WITH CELL/BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. ALSO...AS CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SC MOVES ENEWD AROUND 20 KTS...IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF FAR SERN NC AFTER 20Z...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWWD AND ENHANCE THE STRONG/ISO DMGG WIND THREAT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME OVER SERN NC. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR THREAT...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND TRAINING CELLS EAST OF THE GUST FRONT AND LINE MERGERS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT HRLY RAINFALL RATES ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR. ..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 35277671 36327744 36297810 35287878 34757906 34387905 33897858 33867803 34507742 34717658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 18:19:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 13:19:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507131830.j6DIUEu5012846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131827 VAZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-NYZ000-132000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN PA AND NRN VA/MD AND WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 131827Z - 132000Z ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN PA SWD INTO NRN VA/MD AND WV PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. AT 18Z...A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR FKL TO CHO. NUMEROUS STORMS HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THESE STORMS...WITH WEAK...BUT DEEP SLY FLOW LOCATED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS... WHICH MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE GREATER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINS GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...P/WS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. ALSO STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NWD AND SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE TRAINING OF STORMS FOR AN HOUR OR MORE. ..IMY.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE... 38217858 39257937 41378023 42138001 42047944 40487829 39507789 38407756 38207776  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 18:28:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 13:28:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507131839.j6DIdQ0h019178@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131837 MTZ000-132100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131837Z - 132100Z ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NCENTRAL MT MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BNDRY LAYER AND BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES INTO NERN MT IN THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 21Z. RECENT TRENDS IN NLDN SHOWS INCREASING AMT OF COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING OVER NCENTRAL MT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BNDRY LAYER. DESPITE TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOWER-MID 90S OVER NERN MT WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S...RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT AROUND 100-150 J/KG OF MLCINH REMAINED AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEG F BEFORE CINH BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME ROOTED. HOWEVER...ENOUGH STORM SCALE EFFECTS MAY OCCUR TO OFFSET THE CINH AND AID IN QUICKER BOUNDARY LAYER ROOTING OF THE CONVECTION. GIVEN VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER UP TO 650 MB ALONG WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ABOVE THIS LAYER...AND 30-35 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW...AT LEAST ISOLATED DMGG WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE. GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED TO AOB 35 KTS. UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL BE LIMITED AND MORE MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR STORM MODE CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL LATER WHEN STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THUS ISOLATED DMGG WINDS APPEAR THE MOST LIKELY THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX... 49030737 48560849 47700927 47120911 46980722 47110447 48930407 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 19:33:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 14:33:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507131943.j6DJhsiP029986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131940 MTZ000-IDZ000-132215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL MT AND CENTRAL MTNS OF ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131940Z - 132215Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS OF ID INTO SWRN MT BY 22Z. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED INTO SCENTRAL/CENTRAL MT AND THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 21Z. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO NEWD INTO SWRN MT AND OVER THE BEARTOOTH MTNS. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND ONLY 25-50 J/KG OF MLCINH REMAINING AS LOWER 50S DEWPTS HAVE REMAINED DESPITE DEEP MIXING. GIVEN MODERATE MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH 50-55 KTS OF FLOW AT 4 KM...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AOA 40 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN RELATIVELY SMALL AND NARROW AXIS OVER CENTRAL ID/SWRN MT...A WW FOR THIS AREA IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...AS STG-ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION MOVES/DEVELOPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SWRN MT AND EVENTUALLY INTO SCENTRAL/CENTRAL MT AFTER 21Z...GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG/ AND GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF SVR THREAT SUGGESTS THAT A WW IS POSSIBLE BY 21Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 45351038 45011139 44631266 44101400 44911447 46171326 46751245 47711091 47690942 46530842 45740910  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 21:08:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 16:08:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507132119.j6DLJWBx024503@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132118 PAZ000-140015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0418 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 132118Z - 140015Z TSTM LINES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL/SCENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DMGG WINDS. OVERALL THE SVR THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER ECENTRAL PA WILL MOVE SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN PA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AROUND 10 KTS...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG/ AND WEAKLY ORGANIZED NATURE OF CONVECTIVE LINE. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS OVER NRN VA/WV HAS DEVELOPED A WEAK COLD POOL AND THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS SHOULD MOVE NWD INTO SCENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY THE OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MERGE OVER CENTRAL/SCENTRAL PA /TO THE SOUTH OF UNV/ AROUND 01Z...WITH HVY RAIN THE DOMINANT THREAT OVER THIS AREA GIVEN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW/S AROUND 1.7 INCHES. ..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP... 41257673 40957837 40477864 40097856 39837816 39847772 39907694 40087614 40487576 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 22:01:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 17:01:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507132211.j6DMBvKv023457@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132210 GAZ000-140115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN GA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS....HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 132210Z - 140115Z CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL MERGE WITH ONGOING ISOLATED CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER ECENTRAL/SERN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE SVR THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SAVANNAH NWWD TO JEFFERSON AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SC. CONVECTIVE LINE OVER CENTRAL GA WAS MOVING EWD AROUND 25 KTS...AND IS SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG/ DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY...IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WINDS AS IT MOVES INTO ECENTRAL/SERN GA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AS THIS CONVECTIVE LINE MERGES WITH ISOLATED TSTMS AND/OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY MODEST ELY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE OUTFLOW/SEE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...STORM MOTIONS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH AS MERGERS OCCUR AND HVY RAINFALL WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR. ..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 32278119 33168197 33008277 31828255 31688149 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 23:11:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 18:11:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507132322.j6DNM59E020614@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132321 MTZ000-140045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1745 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636... VALID 132321Z - 140045Z SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM SWRN MT NEWD INTO NERN MT -- WITHIN WW 636. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS INDICATED OVER CENTRAL MT ATTM...ALONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN MT SWWD INTO SWRN MT. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW OVER CENTRAL MT INVOF LOW...WHERE AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WITH VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED /NEAR 50 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION/...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THREAT FOR HAIL WITH STRONGER / ROTATING STORMS. THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. ..GOSS.. 07/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 48940426 45000899 45001276 48300882 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 01:33:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 20:33:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507140145.j6E1jTdc017546@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140144 NDZ000-MTZ000-140315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0844 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NERN MT / NWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636... VALID 140144Z - 140315Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NERN MT...AND SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD EWD OUT OF WW INTO PARTS OF NWRN ND. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED E OF CURRENT WW. LATEST SURFACE / OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS NERN MT / NWRN ND ATTM...E OF CURRENT WW. MEANWHILE...STORMS CONTINUE FURTHER W INTO CENTRAL MT...INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING NE-SW ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE STATE. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE / SPREAD EWD WITH TIME AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING FROM W TO E AND THUS SLOWLY ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH TIME...EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE...LIKELY REQUIRING NEW WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 07/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 48560838 49130107 46430359 45360933 45391210 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 03:47:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 22:47:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507140359.j6E3xcaE005806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140355 NDZ000-MTZ000-140500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT / NWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636...637... VALID 140355Z - 140500Z THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MT...BUT REMAIN STRONG / SEVERE OVER NERN MT / NWRN ND. THOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 14/05Z...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PARTS OF ERN MT AND WRN ND FOR POTENTIAL THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND 14/05Z. LATEST DATA SHOWS THAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS ERN MT / NWRN ND...THOUGH AIRMASS STABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS WRN AND INTO CENTRAL ND. AS UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS EWD ACROSS WRN AND INTO CENTRAL MT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING OUT OF WW 636 / INTO WW 637. EVENTUALLY...CONVECTION WILL ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS W CENTRAL ND. IN THE MEAN TIME...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 637...WHERE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH HAVE BEEN RECENTLY OBSERVED. THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR...BEYOND WHICH NEW WW OR LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW 637 MAY BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 07/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 46910765 48000644 48960553 49000183 46720427 46700645 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 14:56:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 09:56:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507141508.j6EF88Of006380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141505 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141505 NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-141700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NY...SRN VT...WRN MA...SWRN NH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141505Z - 141700Z SMALL FORWARD PROPAGATING TSTM LINE MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS APCHG 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA...CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE...AS IT MOVES OVER GFL AREA AND NEARBY PORTIONS HUDSON VALLEY...SERN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD INTO WRN MA AND MOVE AS FAR E AS SWRN NH. WW NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS ACTIVITY ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THERMODYNAMICALLY MODIFIED ALY RAOB SUGGEST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND...AS INFLOW LAYER HEATS AND MIXES AND SFC-BASED INSTABILITY INCREASES. TEMPS RISING INTO LOW-MID 80S F WITH CURRENTLY OBSERVED SFC DEW POINTS WILL YIELD MLCAPES AND SBCAPES IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE BY APPROXIMATELY 17Z...ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERTED-V PROFILE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL AMBIENT FLOW OR SHEAR...AS EVIDENT IN 10-15 KT LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS IN 12Z ALY RAOB AND LATEST VWP. IN SUCH WEAK AMBIENT FLOW ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE GUST FRONT SURGE WELL AHEAD OF PARENT CORES...AND MUST MAINTAIN STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATIONAL TENDENCY TO SUSTAIN FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE WITH EMBEDDED SMALL BOWS ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL-SCALE DOWNDRAFT SURGES. ..EDWARDS.. 07/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY... 43467506 43577460 43707435 43837407 43837385 43667330 43467287 43227253 42957251 42777258 42657282 42767347 42937394 43347494  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 17:19:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 12:19:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507141731.j6EHVf3X030136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141729 SCZ000-GAZ000-141930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1749 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL GA...SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141729Z - 141930Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER ECENTRAL GA SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO SC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE LIKELY POSING AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SC MAY ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WINDS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SUBTLE MCV OVER CENTRAL GA. RECENT MONTGOMERY VWP INDICATED AROUND 20-25 KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS ECENTRAL GA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GRADUALLY INCREASING WAA AHEAD OF THE MCV SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTMS OVER SC ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT AND OTHER WEAKER SFC TROUGHS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED WIND FIELDS SPREADING EWD ACROSS SC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..CROSBIE.. 07/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34567966 34688060 34848174 33958260 33048273 32598273 32248244 32218118 32708033 33707904  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 18:16:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 13:16:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507141828.j6EIS4WF031173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141827 TXZ000-142130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 141827Z - 142130Z CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OVER THE HILL COUNTY OF TX WHILE POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. HOWEVER...HVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 2 INCHES. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER NWRN TX THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LBB VWP DATA INDICATED AROUND 30 KTS OF NLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE MOVING TOWARDS THE WRN HILL COUNTRY. INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN HILL COUNTRY ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR SJT TO TPL TO PSN. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AOA 3500 J/KG...COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME PULSE SVR WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WRN HILL COUNTY WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS. FARTHER EAST...WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLOWER EWD STM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT HVY RAINFALL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE ERN HILL COUNTRY/I-35 CORRIDOR FROM AUS TO ACT AND EVENTUALLY EWD TO NEAR CLL. ..CROSBIE.. 07/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31719714 31719919 31210003 30390013 29889944 29679863 29659726 29839653 30359607 30819593 31639673 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 19:11:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 14:11:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507151923.j6FJNRE7006056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151922 ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-152045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE OK/NE TX/NRN LA AND CNTRL/SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 151922Z - 152045Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/NE TX INTO CNTRL/SRN AR AND NRN LA. A SEVERE WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED. ON PERIPHERY OF ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AND REMNANT MCV ACROSS NE TX...WSW-ENE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH EXISTS FROM ALONG THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK/NRN TX INTO CNTRL AR. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH UPPER/SFC TROUGH AND MCV MAY PROVIDE AN INITIAL FOCUS...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIMITED BY WEAK /10-15 KTS OR LESS/ LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS PER DEQUEEN AR PROFILER/REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...PERHAPS UP TO 2 IN/HR. ..GUYER.. 07/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32329164 32189380 32559443 32969503 33099622 33059743 33509795 33959801 34849625 35509424 35409198 35439073 34509064 33189125 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 19:33:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 14:33:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507151945.j6FJj0TF015247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151943 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151943 WIZ000-MNZ000-152145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NERN MN...EXTREME NERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151943Z - 152145Z CAP IS BREAKING INVOF COLD FRONT OVER AREA BETWEEN DLH-BRD...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW TOWARD NRN PORTION MN/SD BORDER. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WHILE CELLS STILL ARE RELATIVELY DISCRETE. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM HIB...BRD...30 W ATY...MOVING ESE AT 10-15 KT. WEAK THERMAL BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT S AND SW OF LAKE BREEZE...FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY WI SWWD ACROSS PINE COUNTY MN...THEN NWWD TO INTERSECTION WITH FRONT OVER CENTRAL AITKIN COUNTY MN...WHERE ISOLATED MULTICELL TSTM HAS DEVELOPED. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT HAS DESTABILIZED CONSIDERABLY WITH SFC HEATING INTO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S F...AND DEW POINTS LOW 70S...CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 3000-4000 J/KG. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER THIS AREA -- 10-20 KT BELOW 400 MB AS EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR TO REMAIN WEAK OVER REGION...LIMITING ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IN SUCH STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STORM-SCALE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS PROVIDING LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT...A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS OR HAIL REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 07/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 45649612 46319441 46959303 47699157 47609119 47449134 47149184 46829190 46609157 46419151 46139209 45479385 44999604 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 19:41:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 14:41:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507151953.j6FJrOdb019398@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151949 COR WIZ000-MNZ000-152145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NERN MN...EXTREME NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151949Z - 152145Z CORRECTED FOR DIRECTIONAL TYPO CAP IS BREAKING INVOF COLD FRONT OVER AREA BETWEEN DLH-BRD...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW TOWARD NRN PORTION MN/SD BORDER. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WHILE CELLS STILL ARE RELATIVELY DISCRETE. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM HIB...BRD...30 W ATY...MOVING ESE AT 10-15 KT. WEAK THERMAL BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT S AND SW OF LAKE BREEZE...FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY WI SWWD ACROSS PINE COUNTY MN...THEN NWWD TO INTERSECTION WITH FRONT OVER CENTRAL AITKIN COUNTY MN...WHERE ISOLATED MULTICELL TSTM HAS DEVELOPED. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT HAS DESTABILIZED CONSIDERABLY WITH SFC HEATING INTO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S F...AND DEW POINTS LOW 70S...CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 3000-4000 J/KG. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER THIS AREA -- 10-20 KT BELOW 400 MB AS EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR TO REMAIN WEAK OVER REGION...LIMITING ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IN SUCH STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STORM-SCALE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS PROVIDING LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT...A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS OR HAIL REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 07/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 45649612 46319441 46959303 47699157 47609119 47449134 47149184 46829190 46609157 46419151 46139209 45479385 44999604  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 13:59:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 08:59:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507161411.j6GEBT42016512@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161410 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161410 NDZ000-161615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1759 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OPTIONS CENTRAL/WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161410Z - 161615Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY ENEWD 20-25 KT ACROSS MO RIVER AREA SW MOT AND ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL ND WSW BIS. OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY 7-8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. 12Z 850 MB CHART SAMPLED STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME OVER REGION. THIS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES AMIDST PLUME OF INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE LOCATED ABOVE SFC. THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ND...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY COUPLES AND RESULTS IN SLIGHT WEAKENING OF 25-30 KT LLJ. BIS RAOB AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1500-2000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE...HOWEVER VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT -- IN MID/UPPER LEVELS OF CLOUD-BEARING LAYER -- WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. ..EDWARDS.. 07/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS... 45960264 48990400 49000131 45969973 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 19:31:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 14:31:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507161943.j6GJhTc9025412@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161942 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-162115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN MT...EXTREME NERN WY...WRN ND...NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161942Z - 162115Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WIND SHIFT LINE AND DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW JUST SE BIL...ENEWD TO BETWEEN MLS AND BROADUS...THEN ESEWD ACROSS HARDING/PERKINS/ZIEBACH COUNTIES SD. THIS DENOTES NRN PERIPHERY OF MOST INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/DRYING...AND SHOULD SHIFT NWD THROUGH BHK AND SWRN ND DURING NEXT FEW HOURS AS INTENSE HEATING CONTINUES. MIDLEVEL CONVECTION -- EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY OVER NERN MT -- IS OCCURRING IN ZONE OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT IS SHIFTING EWD TOWARD WRN ND. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SFC-BASED AND INTENSIFY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AS INSOLATION N OF PRESENT DRYLINE POSITION CONTINUES TO ERODE SBCINH...WITH MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG IN RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR 60S SFC DEW POINTS OBSERVED AROUND GDV/BHK/SDY. DEW POINT AT DIK HAS RISEN ABOVE 70 F. STRONG AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL FLOWS ARE EVIDENT IN VWP...WITH BACKED SFC FLOW N OF DRYLINE ENLARGING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARS INDICATE BOTH BOWS AND SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. FARTHER S...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING INVOF MT/WY BORDER WILL MOVE EWD ATOP VERY WELL MIXED LAYER...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS GIVEN STRENGTHENING FLOWS. ..EDWARDS.. 07/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45060612 45700699 46860672 47960479 48480288 48350168 47330128 45950118 44950109 44860307 44800531 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 02:23:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 21:23:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507170235.j6H2Zavk030560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170234 MNZ000-NDZ000-170400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1762 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0934 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND THROUGH NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170234Z - 170400Z STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH NERN ND AND EVENTUALLY FAR NWRN MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. FORCING FOR ASCENT N OF WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD MAINTAIN SUPPORT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH NRN ND AND EVENTUALLY NWRN MN NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING STORMS OVER NERN ND AND NWRN MN WITH MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY POSE A LIMITING FACTOR. NEVERTHELESS...FORCING MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT NEXT FEW HOURS FOR STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH NERN ND AND FAR NWRN MN. ..DIAL.. 07/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48249619 47869719 47739920 48329969 48959883 48929616 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 06:01:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 01:01:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507170612.j6H6Cljg012006@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170611 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170610 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-170715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1763 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...NW SD...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 641... VALID 170610Z - 170715Z MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...AND LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY...POSSIBLY WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO. STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...DOWNSTREAM OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...APPEARS TO RAPIDLY BE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS IS WHERE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...IN FAVORABLE MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG CAPPING THERMAL RIDGE. SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME CONFINED TO MOIST POST-SURFACE FRONTAL REGIME...WHERE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING WEAKENS INHIBITION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING OVERNIGHT. MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT...BUT STRONGEST STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. ..KERR.. 07/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46830452 47540337 48510198 48700063 48389962 46850062 46230160 45320277 44900407 44560537 45280584 46180499 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 16:43:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 11:43:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507171655.j6HGtPiu026889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171652 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-171845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1764 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN MN...EXTREME ERN SD...EXTREME SERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171652Z - 171845Z POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM INVOF MN/ND BORDER SSWWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN SD...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD INTO WRN AND NWRN MN. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. 16Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NEAR LINE FROM HCO...GFK...MHE. FRONT SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS AREA OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PRECEDED BY WIND SHIFT/CONFLUENCE LINE NOW EVIDENT OVER EXTREME WRN MN AND NWRN IA. PREFRONTAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HEAT DIABATICALLY AND DESTABILIZE NEAR SFC. AS TEMPS REACH LOW-MID 90S F...SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. TSTMS FORMING ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT MAY CATCH UP WITH CONFLUENCE LINE OVER WRN MN. ACTIVITY MOVING INTO AREA OF RELATIVELY BACKED FLOW FARTHER E WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ENHANCED STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN WARM SECTOR WILL INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT...WITH UP TO 50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR CANADIAN BORDER AND ONLY 20-30 KT OVER SERN SD. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE...HOWEVER FILLING OF THAT LINE MAY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN PRONOUNCED STABLE LAYER AND CINH EVIDENT IN 600-700 MB LAYER FROM 12Z BIS RAOB...EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN MN IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 07/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 48589339 46779405 45589456 44159553 43319754 45329692 46989671 49009630 49009515 49399515 49369502 49369491 49329484 49179480 48899468 48769469 48719454 48699428 48639422 48629384 48519379 48519352  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 19:34:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 14:34:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507171946.j6HJk97D018176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171943 AZZ000-172145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1765 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171943Z - 172145Z OVER NEXT FEW HOURS...TSTMS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING...AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...ALONG MOGOLLON RIM FROM NEAR FLG SEWD TOWARD NM BORDER. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE GENERALLY SWD OFF RIM INTO LOWER DESERTS AND PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING OUTFLOWS. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IN 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...AND IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR RIM CONVECTION TO MOVE SWD TO SSWWD WHILE PRODUCING STRONG-SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS. OUTFLOWS FROM INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY COALESCE AND FORM A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM. VWP AND RUC SOUNDING WINDS INDICATE DEEP LAYER OF NLY TO NNELY FLOW DIRECTED AWAY FROM OROGRAPHIC INITIATION AREA INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER PHX-TUS CORRIDOR...LOW-MID 40S EWD TOWARD SAD. EVEN CONSIDERING LOW LEVEL HEATING/MIXING...DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY RICH OVER THIS REGION WITH 1-1.5 INCH PW INDICATED IN MODIFIED RAOBS...RUC SOUNDINGS AND GPS-DERIVED OUTPUT. EXPECT 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE ATOP VERY DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND ACCELERATION OF DOWNDRAFTS. ..EDWARDS.. 07/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 35091160 34991142 34571121 34251097 34051062 33970991 33590936 33180916 32500933 32070966 31731027 31711081 32031139 32911255 34801178 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 22:07:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 17:07:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507172218.j6HMIsQW029133@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172218 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-180015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1766 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS AND SRN/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172218Z - 180015Z CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST WITH INITIATION OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH. MID LEVEL CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS HAS HINDERED HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF ERN/SRN NEB INTO WRN IA FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CAP AROUND 700 MB SEEMINGLY INHIBITING SFC BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION THUS FAR PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WCNTRL/NRN KS...SUB-SYNOPTIC SFC LOW ANALYZED ALONG COLD FRONT INVOF HLC/HILL CITY KS...WHERE TEMPS HAVE BREACHED 100 F OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEGREE OF DEEP MIXING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY YET LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SFC BASED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING FROM NW/WCNTRL KS INTO SCNTRL/SE NEB...WITH MOST RECENT VIS SATELLITE TRENDS REFLECTING SOME ENHANCED CU INVOF THE FRONT. PROVIDED INITIATION...REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS PORTRAY MODEST 20-25 KTS VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE SFC PORTION OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CNTRL/SW NEB. RELATIVELY GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY COME LATER THIS EVENING...AS MODEST SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH SWD SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE. ..GUYER.. 07/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 38430121 38820175 39700158 41169871 42469713 42499680 42519552 41219521 39689752 38919938 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 23:36:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 18:36:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507172348.j6HNm9Ov020932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172345 MNZ000-WIZ000-180145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1767 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172345Z - 180145Z STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING FROM CNTRL THROUGH NERN MN DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE STRONGER STORMS MIGHT POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. UNLESS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OR ORGANIZATION...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL MN SWWD THROUGH SWRN MN AND WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS STRONGER FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS IS FINALLY OVERTAKING THE FRONT. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER N CNTRL MN THIS EVENING. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KT IN VICINITY OF FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT TO ROTATE. WARM MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL HAIL POTENTIAL. ..DIAL.. 07/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... 47749068 46219246 44689382 44649455 46709459 48469305  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 02:10:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 21:10:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507180222.j6I2MIRi026246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180220 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-180415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0920 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS THROUGH SERN NEB AND NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642... VALID 180220Z - 180415Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS..PRIMARILY ACROSS SRN AND ERN NEB AND EVENTUALLY INTO EXTREME NRN KS. A WW E OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642 IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND W OF A COLD FRONT FROM SERN MN THROUGH IA AND INTO SRN/SERN NEB NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY OVER NEB HAS TENDED TO REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL REGION WHERE LIFT IS DEEP ENOUGH TO OVERCOME EFFECTS OF APPARENT STRONGER CAP IN THAT REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS STRONGEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE POST FRONTAL STORMS OVER NEB HAVE SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZATION THAN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN IA. DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE ACROSS IA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES THAN FARTHER W. THIS IN ADDITION TO THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO EXTREME NRN KS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD. ..DIAL.. 07/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 41509378 40089843 40000079 40709964 41399797 42349565 43289438 44459342 43989209 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 04:01:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 23:01:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507180413.j6I4DLZM021327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180411 NEZ000-KSZ000-180515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1769 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND SERN NEB THROUGH NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642... VALID 180411Z - 180515Z WW 642 WILL EXPIRE AT 05Z. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY PERSIST A COUPLE HOURS BEYOND THIS TIME...BUT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN POST FRONTAL ZONE FROM NWRN KS THROUGH SRN NEB WHERE LIFT IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN FARTHER EAST...POSSIBLY DUE IN PART TO THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS GRADUALLY SPREADING SEWD THROUGH SRN NEB AND NRN KS. HOWEVER... INTENSITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E SOURCE REGION ACROSS KS CONTINUES TO COOL. ..DIAL.. 07/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD... 40189726 39160024 39730069 40889805 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 14:23:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 09:23:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507181435.j6IEZBOs025169@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181434 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181434 MIZ000-181630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0934 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181434Z - 181630Z STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OVER NWRN LOWER MI. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI WITHIN THE HOUR. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ON LAND/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MI. IN ADDITION...MORNING RAOB DATA AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NEWD THRU WI AT THIS TIME INITIATING UPWARD ASCENT ACROSS THIS AREA. MORNING RAOBS ALSO INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT OVER LOWER MI WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S. THUS...MLCAPE HAS ALREADY REACHED 1500-2000 J/KG. SOUNDINGS VERIFY FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR STORMS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY... LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /USING THE APX RAOB/ ARE NEAR 7.0C/KM INDICATING THAT MANY OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41868334 41798424 41818538 42078666 43008668 44348621 45168579 45968454 44988265 43648221 42568244 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 16:20:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 11:20:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507181631.j6IGVtCx022389@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181629 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-181830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1771 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL IL...NRN/CENTRAL IND...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181629Z - 181830Z MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY ACROSS THIS AREA AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EWD ACROSS NERN AND CENTRAL IL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE INTO THE LOW 80S WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S GIVING MLCAPE VALUES AT OR JUST ABOVE 2000 J/KG. ANALYSIS OF RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM ARE JUST ABOVE 7C/KM INDICATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 41808759 41348818 40748902 39849006 39508817 39618616 39738517 39908480 40398412 41388348 41638403 41798586 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 20:47:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 15:47:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507182059.j6IKxJSC013672@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182057 NMZ000-AZZ000-182300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1775 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE/SCNTRL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182057Z - 182300Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS SE INTO SCNTRL AZ AS STORMS MOVE SWWD ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS. DRIER AIR OVER NRN AZ HAS SEEMINGLY CONTRIBUTED TO A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NRN/CNTRL AZ THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY EVOLVING ON THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF SE AZ...AS WELL AS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. ADDITIONALLY...REMNANT MCV OVER THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME SE AZ IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING WESTWARD AROUND UPPER RIDGE. THIS FEATURE MAY FURTHER FOCUS CONVECTION INTO THE TUCSON AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z RAOB FROM TUCSON/PHOENIX FEATURED SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THIS MORNING TO YESTERDAY...WITH LATEST GPS PRECIP WATER MEASUREMENTS CONFIRMING SIMILAR PRECIP WATER VALUES TO YESTERDAY ACROSS SRN AZ. GIVEN ENOUGH CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/SUFFICIENT COLD POOL CONGLOMERATION...15-20 KTS OF STEERING NELY FLOW PER RUC SOUNDINGS AND PHOENIX/TUCSON WSR-88D VWPS WOULD SUPPORT SWWD PROPAGATION ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. HOT TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 100 F AND DEEPLY MIXED PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 07/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 33961120 33771027 32840915 32270871 31340887 31581099 32031190 33071246 34111209  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 22:25:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 17:25:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507182237.j6IMbGEZ026244@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182236 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-182330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1776 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN LOWER MI...IND...OH AND SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643...644... VALID 182236Z - 182330Z WW 643 WILL EXPIRE AT 23Z AND WW 644 WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER WW FOR THIS AREA IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A SQUALL LINE FROM SERN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH CNTRL IND AND SRN IL CONTINUES EWD AT AROUND 30 KT. UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW OF 30-40 KT EXISTS BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 6 KM...BUT WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. STORMS WITHIN THE LINE APPEAR POORLY ORGANIZED...BUT MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD UNDERGO AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 07/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 40098642 41668352 40908162 38388850 38658951 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 14:58:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 09:58:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507191509.j6JF9tGb002276@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191507 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191507 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-191630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1777 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 191507Z - 191630Z THE LATEST DATA ANALYSIS APPEARS TO SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...THE OUTLOOK IS BEING UPGRADED TO SLIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED IN ERN NY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ERN NY...VT...CT AND WRN ME WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY INCREASE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES TO AROUND 25 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 07/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 44907346 44997125 46017016 47266882 46816789 44786721 43506983 43187019 41887001 41127123 41067311 42047410 43327417  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 16:47:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 11:47:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507191659.j6JGx7wo032567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191658 TXZ000-191900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191658Z - 191900Z OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE EMILY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INITIALLY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL BY MID-AFTERNOON. THUS A TORNADO WW IS POSSIBLE BY 19Z. RECENT 88-D IMAGERY FROM BROWNSVILLE INDICATES PRIMARY OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES EAST OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND MOVING WWD AROUND 30 KTS. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT/FCST MOTION WILL TAKE THIS BAND INTO SOUTH PADRE AROUND 1745Z...AND INTO BRO/HARLINGEN AREAS BETWEEN 18-19Z. ALTHOUGH VWP AT BRO SHOWS VERY LITTLE TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM ATTM...SRH FROM 50-75 M2/S2...STRONGER AND MORE VEERED /ELY/ 1 KM WINDS ARE FCST TO MOVE INLAND BETWEEN 19-21Z ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE MAIN OUTER BAND. MEANWHILE...AS EMILY APPROACHES THE NERN MX COAST THIS AFTERNOON...SFC WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WILL VEER FROM NLY TO NELY WHILE GRADUALLY INCREASING. THE OVERALL NET RESULT SHOULD BE INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH RECENT RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING AROUND 100 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH BY 20Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 27679724 27419840 26509879 26179833 26019718 27009737 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 18:47:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 13:47:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507191859.j6JIxOab032107@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191857 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191856 AZZ000-192030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1780 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191856Z - 192030Z SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER ERN AZ AND SW NM. THE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING WWD ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE WHITE MTNS AND MOGOLLON RIM DUE TO SFC HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AIRMASS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PLATEAU IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH LIFTED INDICES RANGING FROM -2 TO -6 C. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 20 TO 25 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE-TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ESPECIALLY AS THE CELLS PROPAGATE WWD INTO THE DESERTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 07/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 34091295 35021231 34611077 33410919 31560925 31380995 32091291  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 19:40:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 14:40:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507191952.j6JJq1LW027783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191951 VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-192145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN VA...SWRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191951Z - 192145Z ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTIVE LINES TRY TO ORGANIZE WHILE MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN VA AND SWRN MD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL/ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST REGIONAL VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION OVER WRN VA WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A 30 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AT 5 KM MOVING ACROSS WV. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG. GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAK LINEAR ORGANIZATION ALREADY OBSERVED...ALONG WITH MODERATE MID LEVELS WINDS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE LEAD OR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE LINES AS THEY MOVE OUT OF WV/WRN VA INTO THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL/ERN VA AND SWRN MD. HIGHER TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS OVER ERN VA...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S ...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CELL/LINE MERGERS SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SVR WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... 38647733 38437810 38207867 37437958 36597921 36547819 36527646 36597601 37817585 38627648 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 19:56:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 14:56:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507192007.j6JK7bqi003045@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192006 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192006 KSZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1782 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192006Z - 192200Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PULSE LIKE NATURE OF CONVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE GREATER ORGANIZATION. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR SLN SEWD TO NEAR CFV. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. GIVEN FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND LITTLE REMAINING CINH...ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS VERY POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS BY 22Z. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE REGION PER VWP/PROFILER DATA...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS AROUND 25 DEG F SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED DMGG WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THUS GENERALLY SLOW NWD MOVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED. ..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID... 37329581 38649633 39409797 39479900 38939899 38259837 37549736 37219636 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 20:16:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 15:16:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507192028.j6JKSGPr014052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192026 SDZ000-NDZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL ND/NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192026Z - 192200Z STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING IN SCNTRL ND AND NRN SD. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NWD ACROSS NCNTRL ND WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM CNTRL ND INTO SE MT. TWO SMALL MESOLOWS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT IN SW ND AND FAR NW SD. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOWS AND FRONT IS ENHANCING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SUGGESTS STORMS INITIATE NEAR BISMARK AND EXPAND EWD/SEWD ACROSS SERN ND AND NCNTRL SD WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING IN SRN ND AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE...MOVING EWD TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN SERN ND WITH THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 07/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46400165 45870274 45390263 44910111 45549899 46079733 46589770 47279882 47629984 47020095 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 21:20:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 16:20:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507192132.j6JLWP7J014886@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192131 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-192330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1784 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0431 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN ME...NH...ERN VT AND MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192131Z - 192330Z THREAT FOR SVR STORMS APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF WW 645 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WW VALID TIME /00Z/. ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY OCCUR TO THE E-NE OF WW 645 ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE...BUT OVERALL LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL WW. SEMI-ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM WRN ME SWD INTO CENTRAL MA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AROUND 25 KTS. RECENT OBS AT MT. WASHINGTON INDICATED A GUST TO 52 KTS. THUS...DMGG WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW 645 DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. CURRENT MOTIONS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL REACH THE EDGE OF WW 645 AROUND 23Z. UPSTREAM OF THIS LINE THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO HAVE STABILIZED SUFFICIENTLY THAT ADDITIONAL SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY AND THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WW 645 IN THE NEXT STATUS MESSAGE. OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...THREAT FOR SVR MAY MOVE OUT OF WW 645 INTO THE AREA BY 00Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED AREAL/TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. ..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX... 45326814 45197018 45147048 41997180 41947082 43826972 44756701 45326728 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 22:20:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 17:20:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507192232.j6JMWJg3011674@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192231 TXZ000-200030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1785 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 646... VALID 192231Z - 200030Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVER WW 646 THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX ALONG AND A FEW COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MEXICAN BORDER...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY. CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY AT 2230Z WAS ROUGHLY 125 MILES SE OF BRO. PLEASE SEE ADDITIONAL NHC FORECASTS FOR UP TO DATE DETAILS ON STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF EMILY. EMILY REMAINS FAIRLY COMPACT...AND ADDITIONAL OUTER BANDS OF EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EWD INTO WW 646 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG LOW LEVEL ELY JET MOVING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS SPEED MAX WAS LIKELY 50-75 MILES OFFSHORE AT 22Z...AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST BETWEEN 00-02Z. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE ALREADY...RECENT VWP AT BRO INDICATING AROUND 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH...STRONGER AND MORE ELY COMPONENT TO THE 1 KM WINDS SHOULD AID IN AN INCREASE OF THIS 0-1 KM SRH TO AROUND 300 M2/S2. MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH THE NEXT CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WILL RESIDE IN THIS INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS IT MOVES WWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW 646 AFTER 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 28109622 25699712 25699931 28109853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 00:30:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 19:30:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507200042.j6K0gDaw024445@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200039 NEZ000-SDZ000-200245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1786 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD THROUGH N CNTRL AND NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200039Z - 200245Z STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FROM CNTRL SD INTO NWRN AND N CNTRL NEB MIGHT POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND MICROBURSTS NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THE THREAT IN THIS REGION...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM W CNTRL SD INTO NWRN NEB. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WHERE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...MIXING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED THE CAP. STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG THE THETA-E AXIS DOWNSTREAM FROM WHERE THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. A FEW STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AND POSE A SEVERE THREAT AS THEY MOVE EWD AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT SUGGESTS SOME STORMS MAY DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD ENCOUNTER A STRONGER CAP AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. ..DIAL.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR... 41080212 42580127 44120066 45020028 44869938 42939995 41180128  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 02:50:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 21:50:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507200302.j6K32AUR005397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200301 TXZ000-200430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1787 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 646... VALID 200301Z - 200430Z TORNADO WATCH 646 REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH 6Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE EMILY. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SYSTEM AFFECTS THE NERN COAST OF MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TX. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY IS WELL WITHIN RANGE OF BROWNSVILLE RADAR WITH NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 3Z ADVISORY POSITION 120 STATUTE MILES SE OF BROWNSVILLE WITH MOVEMENT WNWWD AT 6KT. EARLIER SPIRAL BAND ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF SRN TX HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASED MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE LOW DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS UNTIL INTERIOR BANDS OF THE HURRICANE IMPACT THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL CELLULAR ACTIVITY EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHERNMOST BAND SE OF BROWNSVILLE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO ACTIVITY AS SYSTEM MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE NERN COAST OF MEXICO. VAD WIND PROFILE FROM BRO REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH CELLS...GIVEN ROUGHLY 35DEG OF VEERING AND 40KT SHEAR IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. ..BANACOS.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 28109622 25699712 25699931 28109853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 03:33:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 22:33:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507200345.j6K3j1Cx019184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200343 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-200515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1043 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL SD THROUGH ERN ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647... VALID 200343Z - 200515Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM N CNTRL SD...ERN ND INTO NWRN MN. A WW E OF WW 647 IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LATE THIS EVENING SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE FROM N CNTRL SD...ERN ND INTO NWRN MN. OVERALL TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SD AND SERN ND TO WEAKEN AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO NERN SD WHERE THE CAP CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. STORMS DEVELOPING FROM E CNTRL ND INTO NWRN MN ALONG NERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT...WITH THE STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET PROMOTING SOME SWWD BACKBUILDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN ND NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... 48579416 45799828 45909950 48759632 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 04:07:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 23:07:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507200419.j6K4JHWA030122@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200418 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-200545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1789 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD INTO EXTREME NERN NEB...SWRN MN AND NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200418Z - 200545Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW NEXT HOUR OR TWO FROM PARTS OF ERN SD AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME NERN NEB...SWRN MN AND NWRN IA. A CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD FROM CNTRL THROUGH NERN SD. ANOTHER STORM HAD INTENSIFIED ALONG THE NERN NEB SERN SD BORDER. A STRONG 45+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND GRADUALLY VEER WITH TIME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES EWD THROUGH SD. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH ERN SD AND INTO EXTREME NERN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME WARMING IN THE 1.5-3 KM LAYER WILL ALSO OCCUR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...AND THIS MAY ACT TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP AND SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. ASSUMING LIFT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME EFFECTS OF THE CAP...MUCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ..DIAL.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... 42649677 43839910 45289794 44979651 43109594 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 06:18:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 01:18:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507200629.j6K6Thkp006274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200628 MIZ000-MNZ000-200700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1790 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647... VALID 200628Z - 200700Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...AND NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ...EMBEDDED WITHIN PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/ U.S. BORDER. SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA BY 08-09Z...BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ...BUT ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY DEVELOPING INTO/ABOVE COLDER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ..KERR.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...FGF... 47768570 47398853 47369181 47649415 47879505 48589336 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 08:13:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 03:13:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507200825.j6K8PKRm008904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200823 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-201030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649... VALID 200823Z - 201030Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...AND TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF NEW WW TO THE EAST OF WW 649. MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. HOWEVER...ANOTHER BELT OF STRONGER FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD AROUND NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IS SLOWLY NOSING INTO AREAS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STORMS IN NORTH-SOUTH BAND FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CONSOLIDATION INTO ONE LARGE CLUSTER MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ON NOSE OF 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE...AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...REFLECTED BY LEADING EDGE OF 70F+ DEW POINTS...FEEDS INTO ACTIVITY...ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. GIVEN MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH ASSOCIATED RISK OF STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL JET LIKELY WILL SUPPORT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHER IOWA THROUGH DAYBREAK. ..KERR.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 44579510 44529367 44089286 43569137 42849102 42039125 42049270 42119417 42069560 42389617 43299601 44009572 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 09:06:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 04:06:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507200918.j6K9I478027173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200916 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200915 TXZ000-201015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1792 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0415 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 648... VALID 200915Z - 201015Z RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES SEEMS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CAMERON/WILLACY/HIDALGO COUNTIES. TO THE NORTH OF CIRCULATION CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MAKE LANDFALL NEXT FEW HOURS...SIGNIFICANT OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND HAS ROTATED INLAND...ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE CIRCULATIONS ARE EVIDENT...EMBEDDED WITHIN CELLS COMPRISING BAND...AND WILL PROVIDE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH DAYBREAK...MOSTLY NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE. ..KERR.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BRO... 26749733 26799823 26599870 26329882  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 10:45:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 05:45:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201057.j6KAvDV3022777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201055 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-201230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1793 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN...CNTRL/SRN WI...IA...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649... VALID 201055Z - 201230Z NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...MUCH IF NOT ALL OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE CLEARED/CANCELLED BEFORE 14Z EXPIRATION. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA WITHIN STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS HAVE GENERALLY MERGED...AND CONGLOMERATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EVEN WITH ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THESE AREAS...SMALL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL ACROSS GUST FRONT SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY...AND CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENING...MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 13-15Z. ACTIVITY NEAR INTERSECTION OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS AND STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SIOUX CITY IA MAY BE SLOWEST TO WEAKEN...BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE CELLS. ..KERR.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42709580 43119354 44179315 45269316 46059214 45359045 43679010 42449086 41759284 41629490 41659621 41959675  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 14:14:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 09:14:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201425.j6KEPTaN012756@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201424 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201424 TXZ000-201600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1794 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0924 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 648... VALID 201424Z - 201600Z A TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TX AS HURRICANE EMILY MOVES INLAND TODAY. AS A RESULT...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REISSUED ACROSS SOUTH TX. VAD WIND PROFILES IN BROWNSVILLE CONTINUE TO SHOW 50 TO 70 KT OF ELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS THE RAINBANDS MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTH TX. ..BROYLES.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 25799774 26449902 27649950 28069876 27889766 26889721 25899710 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 15:58:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 10:58:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201610.j6KGASTq002313@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201609 TXZ000-201715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL IL AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201609Z - 201715Z CONVECTIVE LINE OVER ERN IA APPEARS TO BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BDRY LAYER...AND THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER NRN IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA SHORTLY. REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATES 40 KT REAR INFLOW JET AROUND 2 KM OVER ERN IA. DESPITE MARGINAL MID LEVEL WINDS...STRENGTH OF PRESSURE RISES /2-3 MB PER HOUR/ OVER ERN IA WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL IL AND EVENTUALLY NRN IND OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HRS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS LITTLE REMAINING CINH...AND OVER 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUS THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE LINE BY 18Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 28109622 25699712 25699931 28109853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 16:16:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 11:16:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201627.j6KGReLm011823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201627 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201626 MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-201800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1796 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN AND SRN IA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 201626Z - 201800Z A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS ONGOING JUST EAST OF OMAHA NEB. A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE CLUSTER MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN IA. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS FAR WRN IA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS SW IA WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB AS SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS COMBINED WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE RUC MODEL SHOWS THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AS THE STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AS THE STORMS REACH THE VICINITY OF DES MOINES BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID... 41599756 42479729 42499614 42269445 41699301 40569327 40709552 41099724 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 16:22:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 11:22:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201633.j6KGXZdA015083@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201632 OHZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-201730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL IL AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201632Z - 201730Z CONVECTIVE LINE OVER ERN IA APPEARS TO BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BDRY LAYER...AND THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER NRN IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA SHORTLY. REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATES 40 KT REAR INFLOW JET AROUND 2 KM OVER ERN IA. DESPITE MARGINAL MID LEVEL WINDS...STRENGTH OF PRESSURE RISES /2-3 MB PER HOUR/ OVER ERN IA WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL IL AND EVENTUALLY NRN IND OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HRS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS LITTLE REMAINING CINH...AND OVER 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUS THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE LINE BY 18Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41778661 42328816 42348946 41779033 41139100 40829112 40439096 40139049 39938841 39788711 39848560 40528476 41628481 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 16:25:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 11:25:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201636.j6KGaRpg016546@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201627 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201626 MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-201800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1796 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN AND SRN IA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 201626Z - 201800Z A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS ONGOING JUST EAST OF OMAHA NEB. A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE CLUSTER MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN IA. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS FAR WRN IA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS SW IA WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB AS SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS COMBINED WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE RUC MODEL SHOWS THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AS THE STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AS THE STORMS REACH THE VICINITY OF DES MOINES BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID... 41599756 42479729 42499614 42269445 41699301 40569327 40709552 41099724  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 16:29:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 11:29:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201640.j6KGexJT019130@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201632 OHZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-201730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL IL AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201632Z - 201730Z CONVECTIVE LINE OVER ERN IA APPEARS TO BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BDRY LAYER...AND THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER NRN IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA SHORTLY. REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATES 40 KT REAR INFLOW JET AROUND 2 KM OVER ERN IA. DESPITE MARGINAL MID LEVEL WINDS...STRENGTH OF PRESSURE RISES /2-3 MB PER HOUR/ OVER ERN IA WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL IL AND EVENTUALLY NRN IND OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HRS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS LITTLE REMAINING CINH...AND OVER 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUS THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE LINE BY 18Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41778661 42328816 42348946 41779033 41139100 40829112 40439096 40139049 39938841 39788711 39848560 40528476 41628481  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 16:57:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 11:57:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201709.j6KH9K0E002592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201708 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201707 TXZ000-201900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1797 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TEXAS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 201707Z - 201900Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST NORTH OF WW 650 ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM VICTORIA WWD TO NEAR/SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST NUMEROUS CELLS DEVELOPING IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUTER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE EMILY CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF MCALLEN TX. MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...0-1 KM SRH AROUND 100-150 M2/S2...EXISTS FROM THE LATITUDE OF VICTORIA SWD TO THE NRN EDGE OF WW 650. CONVECTIVE CELLS WEST OF VICTORIA WERE SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL ROTATION... INDICATING THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. RECENT SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AREA...EAST OF SAN ANTONIO AND EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE SWD INTO WW 650 BY MID AFTERNOON. THUS GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT TERM THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED NORTH OF WW 650 A WW MAY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... 29689760 29389856 28809933 27919934 27949814 27909706 28439650 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 17:31:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 12:31:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507201742.j6KHgqsR019177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201742 TXZ000-201945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1797 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 650... VALID 201742Z - 201945Z ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST WITHIN EMBEDDED CELLS ALONG OUTER CIRCULATION BANDS OF HURRICANE EMILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY 20Z ACROSS FAR SERN PORTION OF WW 650...BRO/HRL METRO AREA...AND THUS THIS PORTION OF WW 650 SHOULD BE CLEARED BY THEN. LATEST VWP DATA FROM KBRO SHOWED MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WAS IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX...WITH SAMPLED 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 400 M2/S2. VALUES DECREASE NWD FROM BRO...BUT STILL SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH OUTER BAND CONVECTIVE CELLS. ONE CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING FROM SRN KENEDY COUNTY WWD TO NRN ZAPATA COUNTY IN PARTICULAR WILL LIKELY BE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. SOUTH OF THIS BAND...A SECONDARY BAND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED IN IT AS WELL AS IT ROTATES WWD ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 27879702 27909947 25749947 25719702 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 21:07:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 16:07:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507202119.j6KLJ2th005815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202118 AZZ000-202315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1799 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0418 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202118Z - 202315Z CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS OF CENTRAL/ECENTRAL AZ DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE AS CONVECTION MOVES WWD INTO LOWER FOOTHILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY AS CONVECTION REACHES LOWER DESERTS AN ORGANIZED SVR WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP...AND A WE WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WW FOR THIS AREA BY 00Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS HIGHER TODAY VERSUS 24 HRS AGO...WITH DEWPTS AVERAGING 2-4 DEGREES C HIGHER. CONSEQUENT SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FOR CINH TO REMAIN MODERATE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS...AROUND 100 J/KG OF MLCINH PER MODIFIED 18Z PHX/TUS SOUNDING BASED ON 21Z OBS. THUS...A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO MOVE WSWWD INTO LOWER FOOTHILLS/DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...18Z SOUNDING FROM FGZ INDICATES THAT GIVEN LITTLE CINH AND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WINDS OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH COLD POOL DRIVEN OUTFLOW AND WEAKENING CINH...SHOULD CARRY CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED SVR WINDS POTENTIAL INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 35551176 35161282 33901299 33161209 32341099 32281034 33090936 33840980 34771108 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 21:57:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 16:57:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507202209.j6KM91l9030770@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202208 TXZ000-210015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TEXAS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 650... VALID 202208Z - 210015Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WWD ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 650 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WW 650 AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY WEST OF WW 650 THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL/TEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IN THESE AREAS AND THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 650 BEYOND THE EXPIRATION TIME 00Z...A REPLACEMENT WW WILL BE UNLIKELY. T.S. EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE MTNS OF NERN MX /REF OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST/. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STRENGTH IN EMILY AND CONSEQUENT WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR OVER SOUTH TX. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST...AS EVIDENT BY VWP DATA FROM BRO WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE 100-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. THROUGH 00Z...THE THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 650 AND SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST OF WW 650 AS OUTER BAND CELLULAR CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PRIOR TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WEAKENING OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 27929710 28589781 28559852 28589954 28099991 27579959 25819949 25779827 26969789 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 22:01:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 17:01:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507202213.j6KMDdVN032724@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202212 SDZ000-NEZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1801 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202212Z - 202345Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH INTENSIFYING STORM NEAR RAP. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 2202Z...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN INTENSIFYING TSTM NEAR RAP MOVING 295/20-25 KTS. WHILE RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED...LOCALLY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OVER THE BLACK HILLS COUPLED WITH MESOSCALE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT HAS LIKELY ALLOWED FOR THE INITIATION OF THIS STORM. CURRENT RAP VWP INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS GIVEN ENELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW BENEATH 40-45 KT WLY WINDS IN THE 4-6 KM AGL LAYER. GIVEN ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER ONGOING STORM WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF AND/OR WHETHER ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER AND STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ONGOING TSTM. IF IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT THAT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED. ..MEAD.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 43640371 44300358 44670291 44480175 44080092 43500089 43040111 42640201 43070319 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 22:05:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 17:05:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507202217.j6KMH6ul001622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202208 TXZ000-210015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TEXAS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 650... VALID 202208Z - 210015Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WWD ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 650 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WW 650 AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY WEST OF WW 650 THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL/TEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IN THESE AREAS AND THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 650 BEYOND THE EXPIRATION TIME 00Z...A REPLACEMENT WW WILL BE UNLIKELY. T.S. EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE MTNS OF NERN MX /REF OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST/. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STRENGTH IN EMILY AND CONSEQUENT WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR OVER SOUTH TX. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST...AS EVIDENT BY VWP DATA FROM BRO WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE 100-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. THROUGH 00Z...THE THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 650 AND SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST OF WW 650 AS OUTER BAND CELLULAR CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PRIOR TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WEAKENING OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 27929710 28589781 28559852 28589954 28099991 27579959 25819949 25779827 26969789  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 22:12:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 17:12:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507202224.j6KMOZZ4004844@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202212 SDZ000-NEZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1801 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202212Z - 202345Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH INTENSIFYING STORM NEAR RAP. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 2202Z...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN INTENSIFYING TSTM NEAR RAP MOVING 295/20-25 KTS. WHILE RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED...LOCALLY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OVER THE BLACK HILLS COUPLED WITH MESOSCALE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT HAS LIKELY ALLOWED FOR THE INITIATION OF THIS STORM. CURRENT RAP VWP INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS GIVEN ENELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW BENEATH 40-45 KT WLY WINDS IN THE 4-6 KM AGL LAYER. GIVEN ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER ONGOING STORM WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF AND/OR WHETHER ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER AND STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ONGOING TSTM. IF IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT THAT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED. ..MEAD.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 43640371 44300358 44670291 44480175 44080092 43500089 43040111 42640201 43070319  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 22:33:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 17:33:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507202245.j6KMjmB9012713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202244 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1802 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0544 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD INTO NRN/CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 651... VALID 202244Z - 202345Z IN THE SHORT-TERM...A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER NRN IL WILL BE MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION. AS OF 2230Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED QUASI-LINEAR MCS WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK BOOKEND VORTEX FROM CLINTON COUNTY IN CNTRL LOWER MI SWD INTO DEFIANCE AND PAULDING COUNTIES IN FAR NWRN OH. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME DEGREE OF A COLD POOL...DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER SERN LOWER MI INTO N-CNTRL OH IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. FARTHER TO THE W...ZONALLY ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS FROM WHITESIDE EWD INTO COOK AND WILL COUNTIES IL CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM AFOREMENTIONED MCS. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WI CAN INTERACT WITH THIS AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY...ALLOWING FOR ONGOING STORMS TO INTENSIFY. WW 651 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 23Z...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS NRN IL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..MEAD.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... 39659015 41568747 43078598 41398484 39048984 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 22:44:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 17:44:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507202256.j6KMueZ3016394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202256 CAZ000-210130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1803 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 202256Z - 210130Z TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO/SAN DIEGO MTNS OF SRN CA THROUGH 00Z. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IF CONVECTION CAN MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS PRIOR TO WEAKENING. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO CTY MTNS NWD INTO THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE LOW-MID LEVEL ELY FLOW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES EVIDENT BY REGIONAL VWP/S SUGGESTS VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST SEVERAL HRS AFTER CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GIVEN HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES PER GOES PW IMAGERY...THREAT FOR HVY RAIN WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE GREATER MOIST UNSTABLE INFLOW WILL EXIST. WEAKENING CINH PER RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SLOWLY PROPAGATE ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER DESERTS OF SRN CA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WINDS GIVEN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/. ..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX... 32681627 33581664 34141718 34471718 34701750 34841684 34431632 33711598 32681567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 02:35:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 21:35:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507210247.j6L2lSXl024396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210246 NEZ000-SDZ000-210415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1804 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652... VALID 210246Z - 210415Z POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF WW 562 THROUGH 04Z. ADDITIONAL WW WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY. UPSCALE GROWTH OF MORE DISCRETE STORMS INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING FROM TRIPP COUNTY SD SWD INTO KEYA PAHA AND BROWN COUNTIES OF N-CNTRL NEB. SRN FLANK OF THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM /WHICH HAS EXHIBITED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED A WIND GUSTS TO 69 KTS AT VTN AND 61 KTS AT ANW. GIVEN CURRENT MOTION OF 290-300/30-40KTS...LEADING EDGE OF MCS WILL MOVE OUT OF WW 562 BETWEEN 0300-0330Z. GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS N-CNTRL NEB...IT APPEARS THAT MCS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SHOULD MCS BEGIN TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE/ACCELERATE...A MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BECOME LIKELY INTO PORTIONS OF NERN NEB. ..MEAD.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 42590049 43539935 42479694 41409727 41700012 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 04:21:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 23:21:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507210433.j6L4XSxI025362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210432 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210432 NEZ000-210530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1805 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210432Z - 210530Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING TO THE S AND SW OF WW 653. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TRAILING PORTIONS OF NERN NEB MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH ODX TO N OF LBF. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER GARFIELD AND VALLEY COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NOTED OVER CUSTER AND DAWSON COUNTIES. TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS AS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES SWD AND COLLIDES WITH SYNOPTIC STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL NEB ENEWD TO JUST N OF OMA AND DSM. WHILE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS COMPARABLY WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...PRESENCE OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. ..MEAD.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 41410077 41640007 41539897 41539819 41399756 40919733 40739837 40689947 40980065 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 06:06:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 01:06:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507210618.j6L6Iotp024953@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210618 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210617 IAZ000-NEZ000-210715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1806 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 653... VALID 210617Z - 210715Z CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 653 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 09Z EXPIRATION...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF NEW WW DOWNSTREAM. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...AROUND NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SOUTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...INHIBITION NOW APPEARS TOO STRONG FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG GUST FRONT SURGING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME CONFINED TO THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG/NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHERE CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGEST ASCENT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST WILL WEAKEN BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z. IF THIS OCCURS...ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY BASED AT MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...EVEN FOR PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION AT MID-LEVELS...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE APPEARS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG...WHICH MAY MAINTAIN AT LEAST RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. ..KERR.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 43159619 43399524 43479401 43139277 42799169 41849189 41369341 41279507 41609619 42229624 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 10:17:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 05:17:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211029.j6LATnrT011247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211028 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-211200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1807 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN...SW WI...ERN IA...NW IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654... VALID 211028Z - 211200Z CONTINUE WW. SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...STILL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. HOWEVER...GRAVITY WAVE IS AIDING LIFT OF MOIST POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR AS IT SURGES TOWARD THE EASTERN IOWA BORDER. DESPITE PRESENCE OF RADIATIONAL/WEAK FRONTAL INVERSION AHEAD OF BOW SHAPED CONVECTIVE LINE...EVAPORATIVE COOLING HAS BEEN AIDING DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 30 TO 50 KT JET INTO REAR OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THIS LIKELY WILL REMAIN THE CASE...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE...AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO THE LA CROSSE WI/DUBUQUE AND DAVENPORT IA AREAS BY THE 12-13Z TIME FRAME ..KERR.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43419287 44099363 44649218 43869028 42638999 41589003 41029044 40889169 41409232 42699228 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 11:17:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 06:17:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211129.j6LBTOSv030576@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211127 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-211330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1808 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN IA...CENTRAL/NRN IL...AND SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211127Z - 211330Z LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE...NOCTURNAL MCS EXTENDING AT 11Z FROM 30S MSP TO CID TO IRK WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY EWD AT 40-45KT THROUGH ERN/SERN IA INTO IL. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES SYSTEM INTO CHICAGO AND MILWAUKEE METRO AREAS BETWEEN 15-16Z. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM ONGOING MCS OVER IA/MN/NRN MO ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER AND ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER MI. MOISTURE POOLING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ALONG BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN E-W INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG CURRENTLY. ALOFT...700-500MB FLOW BENDS SEWD ACROSS WI/IL ON NERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. THIS SUGGESTS ONGOING MCS MAY GRADUALLY TURN SEWD THROUGH MID-MORNING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE CINH...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL CURRENTLY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC MESO HIGH...MODERATE WNWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MCS MAINTENENCE. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER EWD/SEWD PROGRESSION OF MCS INTO SRN WI AND NRN/CENTRAL IL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX... 41389172 42369176 42649139 42738933 42728789 41788767 40468771 39758790 39528836 39598934 39819037 40099095 40399145 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 15:16:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 10:16:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211527.j6LFRt4r012911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211527 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211527 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-211600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI...NERN IL...SRN LOWER MI AND NRN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655... VALID 211527Z - 211600Z STORMS MAY MOVE INTO LAKE MI BEFORE STORMS HAVE TIME TO INTENSIFY AND WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. HOWEVER...WW MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF LWR MI AND NRN IL. AT 15Z...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING EWD AT 30-40 KT AND EXTENDED FROM WEST OF OSH TO BETWEEN RFD AND ORD. THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...THE LINE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE STORMS WILL REINTENSIFY BEFORE THEY REACH THE LAKE. ONCE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO LAKE MI...WW WILL BE CANCELED. ..IMY.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...MKX... 41158800 42448847 43458873 43968839 42918456 40598489 40498675 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 15:19:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 10:19:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211530.j6LFUwtR014416@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211530 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211530 COR MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-211600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI...NERN IL...SRN LOWER MI AND NRN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655... VALID 211530Z - 211600Z CORRECTED TO CHANGE IL TO IN IN FIRST PARAGRAPH STORMS MAY MOVE INTO LAKE MI BEFORE STORMS HAVE TIME TO INTENSIFY AND WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. HOWEVER...WW MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF LWR MI AND NRN IN. AT 15Z...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING EWD AT 30-40 KT AND EXTENDED FROM WEST OF OSH TO BETWEEN RFD AND ORD. THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...THE LINE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE STORMS WILL REINTENSIFY BEFORE THEY REACH THE LAKE. ONCE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO LAKE MI...WW WILL BE CANCELED. ..IMY.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...MKX... 41158800 42448847 43458873 43968839 42918456 40598489 40498675 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 17:34:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 12:34:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211746.j6LHkZPi022770@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211746 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211745 VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-211945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV/MUCH OF VA...WRN/CENTRAL MD AND NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211745Z - 211945Z ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AS CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS THAT PROGRESS ESEWD THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A SLIGHT RISK/WEATHER WATCH ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MCV LOCATED OVER SWRN PA MOVING ESEWD. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN WV AND NRN VA HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AT 17Z. FARTHER EAST OVER MUCH OF MD...DEEP MOISTURE WAS NOT AS PREVALENT...AS EVIDENT BY THE 16Z ADG SOUNDING AND SFC DEWPTS THAT HAVE MIXED INTO THE 60S. HOWEVER...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WRN MD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SWLY 10-20 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. BY 21Z...MOST OF WRN AND CENTRAL MD SHOULD HAVE MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE FOR FOCUS FOR SOME LINEAR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS 25-30 KT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS/CELL MERGERS. FARTHER SOUTH...UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER SRN VA/NRN NC...BUT SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG/ AND SUBTLE FORCING AHEAD OF MCV FURTHER NORTH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 38837657 39417712 39687804 39627872 38997980 38568047 37908117 37258137 36438111 36168078 36128003 36037882 36077814 36187712 36827633 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 17:36:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 12:36:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211748.j6LHmZaS023488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211748 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211747 NDZ000-SDZ000-211915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND...WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211747Z - 211915Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY AS CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN ND AND WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ENDS UP BE GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO FAR ERN MT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE 60S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE IN THE BLACK HILLS WITH ANOTHER POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE MT/ND STATE-LINE. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING AS ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BECAUSE OF THIS...IT APPEARS INITIATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE BLACK HILLS AND WEST OF MINOT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 43630306 44050363 47330297 48030247 48060144 47830052 47270038 45310086 43600150 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 17:36:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 12:36:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211748.j6LHmgCk023561@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211746 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211745 VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-211945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV/MUCH OF VA...WRN/CENTRAL MD AND NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211745Z - 211945Z ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AS CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS THAT PROGRESS ESEWD THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A SLIGHT RISK/WEATHER WATCH ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MCV LOCATED OVER SWRN PA MOVING ESEWD. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN WV AND NRN VA HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AT 17Z. FARTHER EAST OVER MUCH OF MD...DEEP MOISTURE WAS NOT AS PREVALENT...AS EVIDENT BY THE 16Z ADG SOUNDING AND SFC DEWPTS THAT HAVE MIXED INTO THE 60S. HOWEVER...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WRN MD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SWLY 10-20 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. BY 21Z...MOST OF WRN AND CENTRAL MD SHOULD HAVE MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE FOR FOCUS FOR SOME LINEAR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS 25-30 KT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS/CELL MERGERS. FARTHER SOUTH...UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER SRN VA/NRN NC...BUT SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG/ AND SUBTLE FORCING AHEAD OF MCV FURTHER NORTH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 38837657 39417712 39687804 39627872 38997980 38568047 37908117 37258137 36438111 36168078 36128003 36037882 36077814 36187712 36827633  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 17:40:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 12:40:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211752.j6LHqYqd025880@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211748 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211747 NDZ000-SDZ000-211915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND...WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211747Z - 211915Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY AS CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN ND AND WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ENDS UP BE GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO FAR ERN MT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE 60S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE IN THE BLACK HILLS WITH ANOTHER POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE MT/ND STATE-LINE. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING AS ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BECAUSE OF THIS...IT APPEARS INITIATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE BLACK HILLS AND WEST OF MINOT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 43630306 44050363 47330297 48030247 48060144 47830052 47270038 45310086 43600150  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 19:45:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 14:45:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507211957.j6LJv4Vi024041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211955 MOZ000-KSZ000-212130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211955Z - 212130Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NE KS AND NW MO. THE STORMS WILL MAY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE AIRMASS ACROSS NE KS AND NW MO IS STILL SLIGHTLY CAPPED. APPARENTLY...ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED FROM ERN IA EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS MO IS AIDING STORM INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF KANSAS CITY. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 65 TO 75 F. THE KANSAS CITY PROFILER CURRENTLY SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37539330 37739496 38329577 39149604 39549452 39749341 39089277 38159240 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 21:52:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 16:52:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507212204.j6LM4beA027164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212200 SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-212330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1815 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN ND AND WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212200Z - 212330Z THREAT OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN ND...NAMELY SLOPE AND ADAMS COUNTIES. MESOANALYSIS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN A REGION OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW SITUATED NEAR REJ. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S HAVE ALLOWED AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT REGION IS BENEATH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES...IT APPEARS THAT THE MESOSCALE...LOW-LEVEL FORCING IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO OVERCOME LARGER-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. CURRENT VWP FROM BIS INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN SLY SURFACE FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT 40-45 KTS IN THE MID-LEVELS. GIVEN DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS...AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH. HERE TOO...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...THOUGH OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP. SHOULD STORMS BECOME SUSTAINED...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS... 46160357 46800334 47110271 47020169 46080097 43080199 42800251 42860366 43180401 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 22:01:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 17:01:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507212213.j6LMDcmn030612@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212212 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-220045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1816 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AZ...SRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 212212Z - 220045Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NWRN MOGOLLON RIM REGION OVER NCENTRAL AZ WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NWRN AZ AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT...SO A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. RADAR IMAGERY FROM FGZ INDICATED CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER WRN COCONINO/YAVAPAI COUNTIES OF NCENTRAL AZ. SFC ANALYSIS SUPPORTED RADAR IMAGERY OF A DEVELOPING MESOHIGH/COLD POOL OVER CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER HIGH DESERTS OF NWRN AZ INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/SRN NEVADA WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DCAPES AROUND 1800 J/KG. GIVEN ORGANIZED COLD POOL/GUST FRONT DEVELOPING...ISOLATED DMGG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE WNW TOWARDS SFC PRESSURE TROUGH/HOTTER TEMPERATURES ALONG LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IF CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE MORE...SLIGHTLY FASTER LINE MOTION WOULD CARRY ISOLATED SVR THREAT INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AROUND 01Z. GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER 1.25 INCHES...THREAT FOR HVY RAINFALL MAY ENSUE LATER THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE LINE BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF LAS VEGAS WHICH SHOULD AID IN SLOWER FORWARD LINE MOVEMENT. ..CROSBIE/HORGAN.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF... 35591295 35151317 34981443 35561559 36251542 36661411 36271321 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 22:22:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 17:22:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507212234.j6LMYa4n005521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212233 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-220000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO E-CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656... VALID 212233Z - 220000Z THROUGH 00Z...PRIMARILY AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS FAR S-CNTRL LOWER MI...NERN IND AND POSSIBLY INTO NWRN OH. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MATURE MCS IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND AHEAD OF WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WI AND IL. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME FORWARD-PROPAGATION WITH A SHORT BOWING SEGMENT FROM ST. JOSEPH AND BRANCH COUNTIES IN SRN LOWER MI INTO LAGRANGE...STEUBEN...NOBLE AND DE KALB COUNTIES IN NERN IND. FARTHER S...GUST FRONT HAS OUTRUN REMAINING PORTION OF MCS...LEADING TO A GENERAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE TOWERS. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS SERN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN EWD PROGRESSION OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT BOWING SEGMENT. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ANY DAMAGING WIND THREAT E OF WW 656 WILL REMAIN SPATIALLY SMALL AND AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..MEAD.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... 39438960 42088670 42038378 40688373 40508424 40168606 39348705 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 22:39:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 17:39:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507212251.j6LMpc7j011277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212250 ORZ000-CAZ000-220045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL ORE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212250Z - 220045Z ONGOING TSTMS OVER SWRN ORE SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE INTO WCENTRAL ORE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL STG/ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN ORE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...AS COMPACT UPPER VORT CENTER APPROACHES THE NRN CA COAST AND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. ELEVATED CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SWRN ORE PRODUCED SUFFICIENT PRECIP TO ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN DEWPTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE LAST 2 HOURS. ALTHOUGH RENEWED HEATING SHOULD AID IN MIXING OUT MOST OF THE INCREASE IN DEWPTS THAT HAS OCCURRED...INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THE REGION BY 00Z. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF AFTERNOON...WITH 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR LIKELY. THUS ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND DMGG WINDS GIVEN HIGH TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER SWRN ORE WILL MOVE NEWD INTO CENTRAL ORE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED DMGG WINDS REMAINING POSSIBLE. GIVEN RELATIVELY LIMITED INSTABILITY...A GREATER SVR THREAT AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ..CROSBIE.. 07/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR... 43812274 43672327 43102415 42132389 41952331 42092215 42672138 42922111 43392143 43912196 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 00:12:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 19:12:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507220024.j6M0OINA010066@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220023 SDZ000-220130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1819 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657... VALID 220023Z - 220130Z APPEARS THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP S OF WW 657 BY 01Z AND A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. AS OF 0015Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES OVER PERKINS COUNTY MOVING 340/35 KTS. MODIFICATION OF 00Z RAP SOUNDING FOR HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN INFLOW AIR MASS YIELDS MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING SWWD INTO NERN BUTTE COUNTY SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE COLD POOL GENERATION...ALLOWING STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THEREFORE...THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AS SYSTEM MOVES/PROPAGATES SEWD TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. ..MEAD.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 45110324 45100017 43730051 43700359 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 00:22:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 19:22:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507220034.j6M0YIn4013233@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220032 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-220230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN IND...ERN IL AND WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656... VALID 220032Z - 220230Z CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ECENTRAL IL/WCENTRAL IND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN SVR AT LEAST THROUGH 03Z /WW 656 EXPIRATION TIME/ AND POSSIBLY SEVERE HRS BEYOND. THUS A REPLACEMENT WW THAT WOULD INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN IND INTO WRN OH APPEARS POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN. NEW CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IND WWD INTO ECENTRAL IL. REGION REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS AS MODERATE NWLY FLOW /35-40 KTS/ SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWP/S WAS PRESENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN MCV CENTERED OVER WRN MI. COUPLED WITH VERY HIGH INSTABILITY...MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG...THE SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPTS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW TO AROUND 20 KTS PER 00Z ILX SOUNDING SHOULD OFFSET THE LIMITED CINH THAT WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IF CELL MERGERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN NUMBER OVER ECENTRAL IL/WCENTRAL IND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND SEWD MOVEMENT OF AN MCS WOULD RESULT THAT WOULD TAKE SVR THREAT INTO SRN IND AND POSSIBLY SWRN OH LATER THIS EVENING AND BEYOND THE 03Z WW 656 EXPIRATION TIME. THUS A NEW WW OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS AREA PRIOR TO 03Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 41288590 40998785 40968840 40538864 39888834 39378741 39008567 39438472 39598443 40498417 40818449 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 02:05:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 21:05:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507220217.j6M2HdRg018411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220216 NDZ000-SDZ000-220345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1821 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0916 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CNTRL ND INTO WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657...658... VALID 220216Z - 220345Z THROUGH 04Z...GREATEST THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS CNTRL AND POSSIBLY SRN PORTIONS OF WW 658. AS OF 0205Z...RAP RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN INTENSE TSTM CLUSTER WITH AT LEAST ONE EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OVER SERN MEADE...NERN PENNINGTON...SRN ZIEBACH AND NRN HAAKON COUNTIES MOVING 330/30-35 KTS. IT APPEARS THAT ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT HAS STARTED TO SURGE AHEAD OF PARENT STORMS...AT LEAST ALONG WRN PORTION OF COMPLEX. INFLOW AIR MASS REMAINS WARM AND MOIST...SUGGESTING THAT CAP LIKELY HAS NOT STRENGTHENED TOO SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARY FAILURE MODE OF SYSTEM WOULD BE IF GUST FRONT CONTINUES TO OUTRUN STORM CLUSTER. GIVEN THE EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH COMPLEX AS IT MOVES ACROSS I-90. FARTHER TO THE N...SEVERAL LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS EVENING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. CURRENTLY...THE MOST INTENSE STORM IS LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELL OVER SRN SHERIDAN COUNTY ND WHICH IS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. AIR MASS ACROSS ND PORTION OF WW 657 HAS COOLED INTO THE 70S...LARGELY AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE STABILIZING BOUNDARY-LAYER. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 04Z. ..MEAD.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 47660237 47659917 45100009 45140045 43570048 43610294 45150295 45160325 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 02:56:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 21:56:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507220308.j6M38NIq003708@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220307 INZ000-ILZ000-220430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1822 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL IND AND FAR ERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 659... VALID 220307Z - 220430Z THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES WITH CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING 320/35KT THROUGH CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL IND AND FAR ERN IL. WW 659 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 22/07Z. IND 88D IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH HAS ACCELERATED SEWD DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING COLD POOL. NARROW WEAK ECHO CHANNELS INTO REAR OF STORMS AND LEADING OUTFLOW NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH STRONG FORWARD REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE...AIDED BY EXTREME SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SOUTH OF ONGOING ACTIVITY. MODERATE WNWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO HELP MAINTAIN SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX... 38548707 38378828 39188845 39908831 40188715 40438520 39968505 39148509 38838549 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 04:14:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 23:14:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507220425.j6M4PuKF030492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220425 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220425 SDZ000-220530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1823 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658... VALID 220425Z - 220530Z THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY PERSIST BEYOND 05Z...HOWEVER A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTM HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED OVER W-CNTRL JACKSON COUNTY ON WRN EDGE OF SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. CLOSE INSPECTION OF RADAR DATA SHOWS THAT ATTENDANT GUST FRONT HAS SURGED S OF THIS INTENSIFYING STORM BY 15-20 MILES. MOREOVER AMBIENT WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY-LAYER HAS SLOWLY COOLED INTO THE 70S WITH RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGESTING THAT CAP IS INTENSIFYING ACROSS INFLOW AIR MASS. WHILE THE THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY PERSIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS BEYOND 05Z...IT APPEARS THAT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED AND A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..MEAD.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 43540299 43770295 43980199 44030096 43710078 43360081 43060135 43040228 43290282 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 06:09:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 01:09:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507220621.j6M6LlIm001372@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220621 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220620 OHZ000-KYZ000-220745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OH THROUGH NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 660... VALID 220620Z - 220745Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 660. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES SEWD...AND ANOTHER WW DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING STORMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED. EARLY THIS MORNING A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SWRN OH SWWD THROUGH NRN KY MOVING SEWD AT 25 KT. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE SEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT NEXT COUPLE HOURS...SUPPORTED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE GUST FRONT SURGING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AND AS STORM MOVE SEWD...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. THESE TRENDS IN ADDITION TO THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. NEVERTHELESS...THE STRONGER STORMS WITHIN THE LINE MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..DIAL.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK... 37798640 38258502 39258427 39988449 39588354 38318372 37158533 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 16:23:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 11:23:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507221635.j6MGZ9Ac019729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221634 NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-221800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1825 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NY...NRN PA...VT...NH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221634Z - 221800Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS NY...VT...NH AND NRN PA. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NE TO SW ACROSS NRN VT...CNTRL NY INTO WRN PA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND SFC HEATING IS HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS IN NRN AND WRN NY. THE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. A MINI-SUPERCELL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 43127266 41357650 41627829 42627830 45017419 45107211 44217137 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 17:15:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 12:15:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507221727.j6MHRQeA016878@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221726 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221726 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-221900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1826 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...VA...NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221726Z - 221900Z CONVECTION IS STARTING TO INITIATE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VA AND NC. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW STRONG ASCENT MOVING INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE AS EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ANALYZED OVER NRN VA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING INTO VA FROM THE WEST. THE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE ENHANCED SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... 38288051 37668179 36588217 35558092 35907814 36957687 37937692 38587766 38657861 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 17:28:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 12:28:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507221740.j6MHer2g023013@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221739 TXZ000-221945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1827 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221739Z - 221945Z ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER ERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AND PROPAGATE SWWD INTO THE HOUSTON VICINITY. GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR. RADAR INDICATES ECHO TOPS IN EXCESS OF 55000 FT AT 1730Z. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST PRESSURE RISES WITHIN COLD POOL GENERATED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WITH STEADY PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THUS...THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN...AND ESPECIALLY IF COLD POOL BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. ..JEWELL.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30879384 29709401 29219501 29139749 30829715 31729561 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 20:18:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 15:18:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507222030.j6MKUU29006559@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222029 WYZ000-222200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1828 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222029Z - 222200Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN ERN WY OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING WWD ACROSS WRN NEB AND NWWD INTO ERN WY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 F AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2500 J/KG. CELLS HAVE INITIATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO HIGHER INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK AROUND THE UPPER-RIDGE CENTERED IN NE CO. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 30 KT ACROSS ECNTRL AND NERN WY SUGGESTING ENOUGH SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. FOR THIS REASON...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 41820464 41630541 42620607 43950671 44580686 44920529 43460435 42240413 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 22:06:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 17:06:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507222218.j6MMIVLx023110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222217 MTZ000-IDZ000-230015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1829 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID / WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222217Z - 230015Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OUT OF WA INTO NWRN ID...WITH STRONG FALLS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER NRN ID AND WRN MT. HIGHER THETA-E AIR HAS BEEN RETURNING NWD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY OVER WRN MT LAST COUPLE HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX... 44971615 46161566 47581635 48371451 48961239 46981219 45451260 45181438 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 22:11:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 17:11:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507222223.j6MMNNp6025745@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222222 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-222345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1830 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ME WWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND INTO CNTRL NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 661... VALID 222222Z - 222345Z THROUGH 00Z...GREATEST THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FROM E-CNTRL NY EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF VT/NH. ANTECEDENT TSTM ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED INTO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF GFL EWD TO S OF RUT TO JUST N OF CON. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS PERSISTING ALONG OR JUST N OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NW OF RUT EWD INTO SWRN ME WHERE INFLUX OF MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS SW OF ALB WILL ALSO REMAIN CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS COMPLEX MOVES ESEWD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY...POSSIBLY INTO WRN MA. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES OBSERVED ON AREA VWPS SHOULD SUPPORT A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING STORMS SW OF ALB. ALONG/N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...STORMS MAY TEND TO REMAIN MORE CELLULAR AND MAY PERIODICALLY EXHIBIT SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION OWING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILE. ..MEAD.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 44987408 44956903 42647156 42727646 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 23:11:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 18:11:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507222323.j6MNNJPT015543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222322 TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-230045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1831 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR AND WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222322Z - 230045Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING TSTMS THROUGH 01-03Z. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NWRN TN WITHIN HOT AND MOIST AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 2500-3500 J/KG. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS AND LOCAL VWPS INDICATE N-NE WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH ROUGHLY 20-30 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE STRONG OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. HOWEVER...IF ONGOING STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATION CHARACTERISTICS...A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED. ..MEAD.. 07/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... 36149063 36349029 36408835 36218787 35588797 35118846 35068954 35159021 35489069 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 23:53:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 18:53:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507230005.j6N05nkR028638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230004 MTZ000-WYZ000-230130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1832 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230004Z - 230130Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS NERN WY AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SUSTAINED SELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BIG HORNS HAS RECENTLY INITIATED A TSTM OVER ERN JOHNSON COUNTY. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING WITH A NW-SE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE VICINITY OF THE BIG HORNS SEWD INTO THE NEB PNHDL. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT INTO THE BLACK HILLS...SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LARGE SPATIALLY THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS GIVEN AN ANTICIPATED EWD STORM MOTION. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..MEAD.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 44130673 44760683 45140640 45270552 45100457 44360439 43590448 43220491 43120538 43390646 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 07:45:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 02:45:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507230756.j6N7uslc029592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230756 NDZ000-231000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ND INTO W CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230756Z - 231000Z ISOLATED HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ND. AT THIS TIME OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER CNTRL AND SRN ND. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHERE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE ABILITY OF STORMS TO TAP INTO THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR BELOW 3 KM. HOWEVER... DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING A 40+ KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS BASED AROUND 3 KM. LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD SERN ND WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKER MUCIN. ..DIAL.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46069921 46160180 47880163 47099703 45969675 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 14:36:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 09:36:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507231448.j6NEmLx2030769@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231447 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231447 WIZ000-MNZ000-231615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1834 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0947 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...WCNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662... VALID 231447Z - 231615Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 662 OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A NEW WW EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 1500Z AND 1530Z AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WRN WI. A WELL-ORGANIZED BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SCNTRL MN AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE CNTRL US UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE BOW IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70 F AND MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 1500 J/KG. DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOW AS SFC HEATING OCCURS THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW THE BOW TO REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO WRN WI OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A FORWARD SPEED OF 50 KT SHOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE BOW. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 45039111 44478941 43898946 43349004 43769243 44369477 45209480 45669429 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 16:45:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 11:45:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507231657.j6NGvihW014167@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231657 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231656 NDZ000-231830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1835 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231656Z - 231830Z NUMEROUS STORMS ARE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING ACROSS CNTRL ND. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL ND WITH 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD ACROSS THE REGION. ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...A CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. AS A RESULT...THE CONVECTION IN CNTRL ND WITH ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS SWRN ND AND SERN MT. THE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM INITIATION WITH THE STORMS GRADUALLY BECOMING CLOSER TO SFC-BASED AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM SHOULD RESULT IN A HAIL THREAT. AS THE STORMS BECOME ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SFC...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48829761 47359698 46449786 46390020 47200135 48770038 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 16:56:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 11:56:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507231708.j6NH8UqY018345@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231708 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231707 ARZ000-OKZ000-231900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1836 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231707Z - 231900Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WRN AR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. MORNING SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA INDICATE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...FROM 6.5 TO 7.5 C/KM. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL THUS BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW PULSE SEVERE. GIVEN WEAK ELY FLOW AROUND SRN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE...STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY WWD...AND MAY MOVE INTO ERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..JEWELL.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... 36189323 35849287 34969279 34369327 34239424 34649538 35259588 35659574 36249442 36389363 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 16:59:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 11:59:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507231711.j6NHBjkj019704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231710 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231710 COR ARZ000-OKZ000-231900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1836 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AR / ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231710Z - 231900Z CORRECTED FOR LOCATION HEADER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WRN AR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. MORNING SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA INDICATE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...FROM 6.5 TO 7.5 C/KM. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL THUS BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW PULSE SEVERE. GIVEN WEAK ELY FLOW AROUND SRN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE...STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY WWD...AND MAY MOVE INTO ERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..JEWELL.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... 36189323 35849287 34969279 34369327 34239424 34649538 35259588 35659574 36249442 36389363 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 17:13:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 12:13:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507231725.j6NHPMF7024797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231724 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231724 WIZ000-MNZ000-231900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1837 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN/SRN AND CNTR WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663... VALID 231724Z - 231900Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS A BOW ECHO MOVES THROUGH THE ERN PART OF WW 663. THE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO CNTRL WI AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF THE CURRENT WW. A BOWING MCS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WRN WI AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS NRN MN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT IN PLACE FROM SE MN EXTENDING SSEWD INTO NRN IL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. AS THE BOW ECHO MOVES ESEWD AT 50 KT...THE FORWARD SPEED COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SHOULD MAINTAIN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME MARGINAL ACROSS ERN WI WHERE INSTABILITY WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY. ..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 43008825 44159220 45479187 44298767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 04:17:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 23:17:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507240429.j6O4TfZV017024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232149 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI THRU NERN IL INTO NWRN INDIANA... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 665...666... VALID 232149Z - 232315Z LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS DERECHO CONTINUES TO MOVE SSEWD AT 35-40 KT. DATA ALSO SHOWS WELL DEFINED PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET OVER THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PRESS FALLS CENTERED OVER THE CHICAGO IL/GARY IN AREA OF 2.4MB THE LAST TWO HOURS. THUS...WOULD EXPECT BOW ECHO SIGNATURE TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS EFFECTING THE WRN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO INTO COOK...DUPAGE...WILL AND KANKAKEE COUNTIES. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX... 42618938 42888879 43048759 42488716 41018685 40738748 40998843  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 04:17:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 23:17:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507240429.j6O4Tg9W017027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232010 ILZ000-WIZ000-232145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1838 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...NRN IL...SRN LAKE MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 664... VALID 232010Z - 232145Z A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING QUICKLY SEWD WILL LIKELY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A NEW WW IS BEING ISSUED ACROSS SERN WI AND FAR NE IL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NNWWD FROM WRN IL INTO ERN IA. A FAST MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING QUICKLY SEWD ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE...THE SHEAR WILL LIKELY HELP SUSTAIN THE LINE AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO FAR SE WI...SRN LAKE MI AND NE IL OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. CONSIDERING THE SPEED OF THE LINE IS NEAR 50 KT...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... 43338971 43918834 43418727 43028692 42048717 41668859 42278977  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 04:17:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 23:17:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507240429.j6O4Te7H017018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232010 ILZ000-WIZ000-232145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1838 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...NRN IL...SRN LAKE MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 664... VALID 232010Z - 232145Z A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING QUICKLY SEWD WILL LIKELY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A NEW WW IS BEING ISSUED ACROSS SERN WI AND FAR NE IL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NNWWD FROM WRN IL INTO ERN IA. A FAST MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING QUICKLY SEWD ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE...THE SHEAR WILL LIKELY HELP SUSTAIN THE LINE AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO FAR SE WI...SRN LAKE MI AND NE IL OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. CONSIDERING THE SPEED OF THE LINE IS NEAR 50 KT...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... 43338971 43918834 43418727 43028692 42048717 41668859 42278977  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 06:46:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 01:46:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507240658.j6O6wOOC017871@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240657 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240657 MIZ000-WIZ000-240900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1841 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...UPPER MI AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667... VALID 240657Z - 240900Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS NRN WI THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL UPPER MI. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY ALSO INCREASE OVER CNTRL AND NRN LOWER MI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL MN SEWD THROUGH N CNTRL WI. STRONGEST LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ACCOMPANYING THE 50+ KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY FROM NRN WI...WRN UPPER MI AND INTO LAKE MI WHERE ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER CAP AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES. IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR THAT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS INTO SWRN PARTS OF WW 667 IS UNLIKELY DUE TO PRESENCE OF STRONGER CAP. INSTABILITY IS WEAKER WITH ERN EXTENT INTO LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY VEER THIS MORNING...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION EWD WITH TIME. THIS SUGGESTS STRONGER STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP FARTHER EWD INTO LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. ALSO SOME OF THE STORMS WITHIN THE MCS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...DLH... 46879031 46178603 43328385 42598582 45318839 46489179 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 08:03:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 03:03:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507240815.j6O8FFJ3005994@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240814 SDZ000-240945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1842 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240814Z - 240945Z STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH SERN SD. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON. EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN SD SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB. HIGHER THETA-E AIR WITH 3000+ MU CAPE N OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP. THIS SUGGESTS PRIMARY AREA OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN N OF THE FRONT AND ALONG/BEHIND A N-S ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL IS DEEP AND STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS. STORMS ARE MOVING ENEWD AT AROUND 35 KT. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH MID LEVEL FLOW 25 TO 30 KT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 44129699 43159882 43000019 43729999 44219852 44599726 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 09:47:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 04:47:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507240959.j6O9xpju004348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240959 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240959 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-241130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1843 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN WI THROUGH LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667...668... VALID 240959Z - 241130Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667 WILL EXPIRE AT 11Z. THE SEVERE STORMS WILL HAVE MOVED SEWD BEYOND NERN WI AFTER ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND MOVING SEWD THROUGH LOWER MI AND WW 668 WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONGER STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP SWD INTO SRN LOWER MI LATER THIS MORNING...AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN WI SEWD THROUGH SWRN LOWER MI. FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR IS PRESENTLY OVER WRN AND NRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO VEER TO WLY...DESTABILIZATION INTO SRN LOWER MI IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM SRN LOWER MI INTO NWRN OH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM WITH THE ONSET OF SUNRISE. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SEWD MOVEMENT ALONG THE NW-SE ORIENTED INSTABILITY GRADIENT. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR SHOW SOME STORMS HAVE BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING WITH BOW ECHO STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB... 41208489 43738659 45728920 46328790 44598379 41608255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 10:10:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 05:10:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507241022.j6OAMqv1010609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241022 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-241145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 669... VALID 241022Z - 241145Z ...WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF WEAKENING TRENDS CONTINUE... DECAYING MCS OVER SD BEGAN AS AN INTENSE BOW ECHO...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL SEVERE WIND REPORTS INCLUDING A 61 KT GUST AT THE SFD /WINNER SD/ ASOS AROUND 09Z. NOW...LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS...AND LIGHTNING ALSO APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. COLD FRONT REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW IS NOW MOVING INTO NW IA AND NCNTRL NEB. STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR HURON ARE STRUGGLING...LIKELY BECAUSE STORMS ARE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..TAYLOR.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43489622 42649948 43959962 44789626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 14:11:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 09:11:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507241423.j6OENFmS013605@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241422 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241422 OHZ000-MIZ000-241515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1845 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0922 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI...NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 668...670... VALID 241422Z - 241515Z WW 668 HAS RECENTLY BEEN CANCELLED. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...WEST OF CLEVELAND...BY 16-18Z. BUT IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 670 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 18Z EXPIRATION. ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR/EAST OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR TRAVERSE CITY MI SOUTHWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF FINDLAY OH...BUT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD...LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY 18-19Z. STRONG MID-LEVEL WARMING APPEARS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN CAPPING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WEST OF WARM FRONT. WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME CONFINED TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND AREAS TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE. THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL BE BASED AT MID-LEVELS...WITH SEVERE THREAT MOSTLY LIMITED TO ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..KERR.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...DTX...APX...GRR... 44648444 44598328 43188096 41858078 40988087 40328198 40898338 41778384 43098455 43898480 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 15:22:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 10:22:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507241534.j6OFY5rb000966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241533 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-241730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1846 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB...SE SD...NRN IA...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241533Z - 241730Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. SURFACE FEATURES ARE WEAK...WITH LITTLE READILY EVIDENT LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...WEAK IMPULSE MIGRATING AROUND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID/ UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR HURON SD INTO THE VICINITY OF AINSWORTH NEB. ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS BASED ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION...BUT WITH CONTINUED HEATING/WEAKENING INHIBITION...MODELS SUGGEST STORMS LIKELY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER BY THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 2000...AND MAY INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG THROUGH PEAK HEATING...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS IN STORM CLUSTERS. THIS MAY BE ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE FLOW EAST OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41930045 42509972 43359889 43889766 44199539 44539310 44079216 42789178 42519473 41749837 41110071 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 19:04:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 14:04:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507241916.j6OJGRDw008420@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241915 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241914 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-242115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1847 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN ND / NWRN SD / EXTREME NERN WY AND SERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241914Z - 242115Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FIELD INCREASING WITH ISOLATED STORMS NOW OVER SWRN ND WITHIN WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK WIND PROFILES BELOW 500 MB SUGGEST RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED STORMS WITH MAXIMUM HAIL DIAMETERS UP TO 1.50 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN DECREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP MIXING LAYERS...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. ..JEWELL.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 45690018 43830137 43860387 45450469 46430424 46770378 47090201 47160061 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 19:19:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 14:19:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507241931.j6OJVl8x012840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241930 COR SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-242115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1847 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN ND / NWRN SD / EXTREME NERN WY AND SERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241930Z - 242115Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FIELD INCREASING WITH ISOLATED STORMS NOW OVER SWRN ND WITHIN WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK WIND PROFILES BELOW 500 MB SUGGEST RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED STORMS WITH MAXIMUM HAIL DIAMETERS UP TO 1.50 INCHES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER TODAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. GIVEN DECREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP MIXING LAYERS...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. ..JEWELL.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 45690018 43830137 43860387 45450469 46430424 46770378 47090201 47160061 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 20:35:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 15:35:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507242047.j6OKll99000940@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242046 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-242245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1848 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI...PARTS OF NRN IND AND NW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242046Z - 242245Z CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. WITH PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT...SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE SURGED INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY CLIMBED INTO THE 90S...CONTRIBUTING TO EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING AROUND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CAPPING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME IS UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH COULD AID INITIATION OF STORMS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...IN BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME PERSISTS AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS...WHICH COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 22-00Z. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY EAST OF LANSING...AND WEST/NORTHWEST OF DETROIT...POSSIBLY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN INDIANA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO. ..KERR.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41868242 41388337 41328562 42188585 43358549 44088460 44178350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 20:59:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 15:59:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507242111.j6OLBDvQ007444@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242110 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242110 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-242245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1849 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NRN AND CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242110Z - 242245Z STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED FOR HAIL AND WIND. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WI ACROSS IA AND NEBRASKA...COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL OCCUR. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS ERODED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DUE TO INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL JET...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN NEBRASKA. THUS...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN WEAK...INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW HELICITY TO INCREASE...WITH WIND PROFILES/HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING VERY SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS BY EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NEBRASKA. ..JEWELL.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 43229540 43299346 43379229 43329158 42259111 41979338 41319623 40589853 40629911 41360030 41920048 42180027 42699955 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 23:15:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 18:15:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507242327.j6ONRqGR012924@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242327 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242326 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1850 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242326Z - 250030Z STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY SLOWLY SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD INTO PORTIONS OF NERN IA AND SWRN WI...EAST OF WW 672. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH SRN WI AND NRN IA. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE FRONT NEAR MCW. EVEN THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WLY...WINDS ARE NOT THAT STRONG SO STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE EWD. ALSO...STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL IA ALONG THE FRONT ARE BACKBUILDING WWD INTO THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND THIS WILL SLOW THE EWD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK ACROSS NERN IA/SRN WI...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY...IF STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF CURRENT WW...A NEW WW LIKELY WOULD BE NEEDED. ..IMY.. 07/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43419258 43418957 43018948 42299043 42169223 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 00:03:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 19:03:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507250015.j6P0F7gZ024790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250013 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-250215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1851 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0713 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SD / SRN ND / EXTREME SERN MT AND NERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671... VALID 250013Z - 250215Z SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS SELY LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NWWD. STORMS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO MOVE EWD OUT OF WW 671 THUS FAR BUT THIS MAY CHANGE LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTS MORE UNSTABLE AIR NWWD. IF STORMS CAN PRODUCE A COLD POOL...THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS SD GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS. ..JEWELL.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 44020232 44050520 45120414 45930393 46610396 46600106 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 01:15:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 20:15:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507250127.j6P1R7Z9010465@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250126 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1852 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...AND NRN/WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 672... VALID 250126Z - 250300Z SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW IN IA. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE OVER FOR EXTREME SERN SD...STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN NEB...AND A NEW WW IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF AREA LATER TONIGHT. A CLUSTER OF STORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE WW...BASICALLY W AND N OF ALO. THESE STORMS SEEM TO HAVE DEVELOPED A WEAK COLD POOL AND ARE PUSHING EWD. ONCE THESE STORMS MOVE EWD OUT OF THE WW...ONLY A WEAKENING SUPERCELL WAS LOCATED ABOUT 85 WNW OF DSM. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WAS VERY UNSTABLE...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE INHIBITING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN NEB. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVENING AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN NEB AND WRN IA. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG... MLCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY HAIL. ..IMY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... 41669546 41129825 42569818 43019725 42789464 43299269 42179256 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 02:42:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 21:42:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507250254.j6P2s3d2002944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250253 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-250400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0953 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW SD/NE WY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 250253Z - 250400Z ...NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SW SD/NE WY... SOME STRONGER STORMS HAVE FORMED WEST OF RAP AND ARE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF WW #671. STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH AMPLE DIRECTIONAL/DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA ATTM...WITH TIME IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. CONTINUING WAA COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE...A SMALL SVR WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SW SD AND NE WY. ..TAYLOR.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS... 42980472 44040527 43980357 44130126 43010118 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 03:18:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 22:18:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507250330.j6P3UlMx012580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250328 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-250500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1854 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA AND EXTREME ERN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250328Z - 250500Z MONITORING PORTIONS OF WRN PA AND EXTREME ERN OH FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND POSSIBLE WW LATER TONIGHT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 1-2 HOURS OVER EXTREME SWRN ONTARIO AND INTO PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-4000 J/KG...WERE FEEDING EWD FROM NWRN OH AND LOWER MI INTO THESE STORMS. DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE SSEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS THAT STRETCHED SWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN OH/WRN PA. WARM MID LEVEL WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT HAIL THREAT...BUT THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS LIKELY BEEN PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS...AND SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP A COLD POOL. ONCE A COLD POOL DEVELOPS...THE STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE STORMS SPREAD SWD. ..IMY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 41638129 42507921 41697876 40757876 39687915 39598085 39648133 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 04:00:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 23:00:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507250412.j6P4C250025779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250411 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250411 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-250515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1855 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA///EXTREME NWRN IL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673... VALID 250411Z - 250515Z SEVERE THREAT MAINLY EXISTS FOR EXTREME SWRN WI... ONE STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME SWRN WI AND WAS MOVING ENEWD AT 40-45 KT. THIS STORM HAS A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ONCE THIS STORM MOVES EWD OUT OF THE WATCH OR DISSIPATES...THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE OVER. WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLIER THAN SCHEDULED 0600Z EXPIRATION TIME. ..IMY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42309144 43199086 43238989 43108961 42618963 42378982 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 04:12:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 23:12:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507250424.j6P4Odww029098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250424 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250423 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-250530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1856 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY AND SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675... VALID 250423Z - 250530Z SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS EXTREME NERN WY AND SWRN SD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERATING ACROSS THE WW AREA AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STORM INTENSITY. ..IMY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... 44660495 44530126 42960124 43190508 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 04:34:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 23:34:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507250446.j6P4kmmT003187@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250445 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250445 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-250545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1857 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/NWRN IA AND SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674... VALID 250445Z - 250545Z ISOLATED HAIL THREAT REMAINS ACROSS WW...THOUGH GREATER THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS ERN NEB...PROVIDING STRONG LIFT OVER QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...THAT STRETCHED E-W ACROSS NERN NEB AND NRN IA. THIS LIFT WAS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WW AREA. DESPITE SOMEWHAT WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS...THE LOW LEVEL JET WAS SUPPLYING A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE STORMS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM SO ONLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT EXISTS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVE SLOWLY. THUS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM YKN TO OTG. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. ..IMY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... 44079850 44139489 42819488 42799848 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 07:28:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 02:28:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507250740.j6P7eVGW019551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250739 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-250945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1858 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NWRN SD THROUGH SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250739Z - 250945Z AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM SERN MT THROUGH SWRN ND AND NWRN SD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER STORMS MIGHT POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FROM SERN MT THROUGH SRN ND THIS MORNING CONCURRENT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD THROUGH S CNTRL MT. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER SD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM SRN ND INTO NWRN SD AS THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS SEWD THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR HAIL. ..DIAL.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 46709910 45310151 44590407 46100553 47020249 47799958 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 13:43:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 08:43:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507251355.j6PDtGre016053@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251353 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-251530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1859 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0853 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...EXTREME SRN LWR MI...NRN IND AND NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251353Z - 251530Z PLAN VIEW PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE THAT THE LLJ HAS VEERED TO WSWLY WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET IMPINGING ON THE FRONT SITUATED FROM THE CHICAGO AREA EWD INTO NRN OH. RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION HAS LIKELY BEEN THE IMPETUS FOR INCREASING TSTMS FROM NRN IL INTO NCNTRL IND SINCE 13Z. VSBL SATL SHOWS THAT THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WAS ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM RAPIDLY THROUGH EARLY AFTN ALONG/S OF THE FRONT. 12Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE/ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THEY MOVE EWD. PRESENCE OF 30-35 KTS OF FLOW IN THE 4-6KM LAYER AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO A BOW ECHO AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP/MOVE EWD FROM NRN IL/NRN IND INTO EXTREME SRN LWR MI AND NRN OH THROUGH LATE MORNING. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON. ..RACY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 40778846 41218938 42018893 42378667 42308487 42148328 41888176 41368086 40838116 40388210 40398268 40438352 40458515 40538701 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 21:29:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 16:29:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507252158.j6PLwfaU032040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252153 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-252300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1868 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0453 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEBRASKA / SWRN IA / NERN KS / FAR NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252153Z - 252300Z STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. A VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES E OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE AS 30-40 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTS. VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WITH MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT INTO KS...WITH LARGE HAIL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROBABLE FARTHER N INTO IA. ..JEWELL.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... 40439440 39599586 39459812 39589887 40249862 40759830 41979647 42429476 42129352 41189356  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 21:52:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 16:52:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507252222.j6PMM1rW008849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252221 PAZ000-WVZ000-252245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1869 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...SWRN PA...WV PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN MARYLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 679... VALID 252221Z - 252245Z BOW ECHO IS MOVING EWD AT 35 KT THROUGH ERN PORTION OF WW IN SWRN PA AND THE WV PANHANDLE/NWRN MD. SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR ERN OH...AND WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY AS BOW SHOULD MOVE SEWD OUT OF WW 679 BY 23Z...WITH SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING IN WW/S 681 AND 682. ..IMY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ... 39628051 40397999 40877974 40817891 39847944 39437962 39568033 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 22:40:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 17:40:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507252310.j6PNA03c024479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252309 VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1870 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH...WV...AND A SMALL PART OF WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 681... VALID 252309Z - 260015Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS SERN OH AND NRN HALF OF WV...BEHIND SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDED FROM NEAR HTS TO CRW TO 30 S EKN...MOVING SWD AT 30-35 KT. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENT SPEED OF LINE WOULD PUSH LEADING EDGE OF STORMS SWD OUT OF THE WW BY 01Z. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF CURRENT WW APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY AS STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS AND COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LESSEN EFFECTS OF COLD POOL. ..IMY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...ILN... 38758269 38628192 38598058 38588000 38397960 37377994 37368072 38118264 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 23:06:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 18:06:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507252335.j6PNZShn031720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252334 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252334 VAZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-260030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MD...SOUTH CENTRAL PA...NRN VA AND ERN VIRGINIA PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683... VALID 252334Z - 260030Z STORM INTENSIFICATION STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN HALF OF WW. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION FROM EARLIER BOW HAS WEAKENED AS IT HAS MOVED INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AND AT 2330Z EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM 25 SW AOO TO 40 E EKN TO 35 ENE SSU. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE WW WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 3000-4000 J/KG...WITH THE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35 KT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER STORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IF SO...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE. IF STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED EARLY. ..IMY.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 39397865 39917840 39957769 38587778 37807778 37757858 37757962 38097957 38707904 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 23:28:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 18:28:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507252357.j6PNv7D0007220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252356 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-260130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1872 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN / NRN IA / WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 680...682... VALID 252356Z - 260130Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HOT AIR WITH LITTLE CIN HAS SPREAD UP TO THE MN BORDER. CELLS APPROACHING THIS AREA WHICH REMAIN CELLULAR MAY STILL PRODUCE A TORNADO...GIVEN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE THAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...AS STORMS EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING. THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING OVER SERN MN ALONG COLD FRONT / WARM FRONT INTERSECTION. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER NWRN PARTS OF WW 682 AS WELL AS WW 680 WHERE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION PREVAILS. ..JEWELL.. 07/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42458717 42469173 45549292 45508813 43218744 42448721 42459175 42679180 42659149 44549148 44529360 44139364 42969579 42569577 42679186 42459169 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 23:42:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 18:42:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507260011.j6Q0BoO6011439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260010 IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-260115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...CENTRAL AND WRN IA...EXTREME NWRN MO AND NORTH CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684... VALID 260010Z - 260115Z NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SERN NEB AND WRN IA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH 01Z WILL PERSIST WITHIN AN AREA FROM WEST OF BIE NEWD TO NEAR FOD. A FEW STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE WW ACROSS EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KS. A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER..DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S...WAS RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS IA...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG. DESPITE THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ...THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE IA STORMS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SERN NEB IS MUCH WARMER...TEMPERATURES IN MID AND UPPER 90S...THAN ACROSS IA...AND DEWPOINT SPREADS 30-35F. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SERN NEB...AND EVEN INTO EXTREME NRN KS...ARE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND STRONG MICROBURSTS...EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS ARE ONLY MOVING ENEWD AT 20 KT. ..IMY.. 07/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...TOP...GID... 39489806 40969682 41349629 42059530 42489404 41609472 40369630 39349783 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 01:40:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 20:40:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507260209.j6Q29jYC013913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260209 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-260415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1875 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...FAR SERN MN AND SRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 680...682... VALID 260209Z - 260415Z THREAT FOR SVR WILL BE OVER ACROSS SERN MN/NERN IA WW 680 BY EXPIRATION TIME /03Z/. FARTHER EAST...GREATEST SVR THREAT WILL EXIST OVER SRN WI AS BOW ECHO MOVES SEWD AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH 04Z. ECHOES TRAINING WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING NRN SAUK COUNTY ESEWD TO JUST NORTH OF MKE METRO AREA...WHERE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. BOW ECHO OVER WCENTRAL WI TO THE SOUTH OF LSE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AROUND 40 KTS AND CURRENT EXTRAPOLATED STORM MOTION WOULD TAKE THE GREATEST SVR THREAT TOWARDS MSN AREA BETWEEN 03-04Z. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BOW HEAD STRUCTURE...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE GREATER. FURTHER SW...ACROSS SWRN WI /WW 682/ AND FAR ERN PORTION OF WW 680 /NERN IA/...OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN TO MOVE EAST OF CONVECTIVE LINE. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ANOTHER WW SOUTH OF WW 682 INTO ECENTRAL IA/NRN IL WOULD NOT BE NECESSARY. ..CROSBIE.. 07/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43648768 44018879 43999055 43429162 42949234 42649243 42429178 42538790 42498741 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 01:52:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 20:52:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507260221.j6Q2L9Mm017300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260220 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-260315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1876 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0920 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...EXTREME NWRN MO...WRN/CENTRAL IA AND NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684... VALID 260220Z - 260315Z SEVERE THREAT HAS MOSTLY ENDED ACROSS NEB AND IS DECREASING ACROSS IA AND EXTREME NWRN MO...SO WW LIKELY WILL BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED WATCH EXPIRATION TIME OF 05Z. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE WW AREA AND OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAS STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE EXTREME ERN PORTION OF THE WATCH AND A LOW THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST DURING THE NEXT HOUR. ONCE THIS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN COOLED...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN NRN KS WHERE A WARMER AIR MASS EXISTS. ..IMY.. 07/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 39999644 41199545 41869448 42539378 42639260 40659485 39999550 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 06:03:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2005 01:03:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507260632.j6Q6WAE3023834@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260631 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260631 MIZ000-260800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1877 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685... VALID 260631Z - 260800Z THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER CNTRL LOWER MI NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT OVER PARTS OF SERN LOWER MI LATER THIS MORNING. A SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD INTO S CNTRL LAKE MI MOVING EWD AT 35 TO 40 KT. RESERVOIR OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER WRN AND SWRN LOWER MI WITH LESS UNSTABLE AIR PRESENT OVER ERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER....A STRONG WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST...CONTRIBUTING TO WARM ADVECTION AND EWD DESTABILIZATION NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS WITH TIME...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY FARTHER EAST INTO PARTS OF SERN LOWER MI. KINEMATIC PROFILES AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 07/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 42428414 43428433 44168372 43678289 42768265 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 08:05:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2005 03:05:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507260834.j6Q8Y8OA030420@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260833 MIZ000-261000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0333 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SERN LOWER MI- CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685... VALID 260833Z - 261000Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST OVER CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE E OF WW 685 AND INTO NRN PARTS OF SERN LOWER MI. WW 685 WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEARED FROM THE W AS STORMS SHIFT EWD. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST AS STORMS MOVE INTO SERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW. THIS MORNING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD INTO SWRN MI MOVING EWD AT 40 TO 45 KT. INSTABILITY REMAINS INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH ERN EXTENT INTO SERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING A 50 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS RESULTED IN SOME EWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME...AND STORMS MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN SOME OF THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUE EWD. THE STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILES AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS WILL POSE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE EWD. HOWEVER...THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO SERN LOWER MI MAY SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS. ..DIAL.. 07/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX... 42508387 43368417 44168372 43708270 42718269 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 21:31:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2005 16:31:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507262200.j6QM0V3o023156@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262159 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-262300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL ACROSS NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 686... VALID 262159Z - 262300Z WW 686 EXPIRES AT 23Z AND A REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY FROM S OF MMO TO S OF PIA...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 50-55 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. MOVING INTO NWRN IL. MEANWHILE...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM S OF SBN TO NEAR LOCATION OF AFOREMENTIONED STORMS OVER IL TO NEAR SZL. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO IN PROGRESS ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND FROM 40 SW SBN TO 35 WSW TOL. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF COLD FRONT REMAINS HOT AND MOIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG. INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX FROM THE W...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... 40508900 41298826 41828624 41868234 38788903 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 22:48:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2005 17:48:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507262317.j6QNHUFw017720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262316 PAZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-270045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1885 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN PA...POSSIBLY INTO MD/WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262316Z - 270045Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF WW/S 687 AND 689 BY 00Z AND A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED. A BOWING STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED THIS EVENING FROM E OF ROC TO E OF BFD TO S OF FKL WITH A SYSTEM MOTION OF 325/35 KTS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR PIT WITH MORE OF A ESEWD MOTION. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG...OWING TO HOT AND MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS. GIVEN THAT AFOREMENTIONED BOW HAS ESTABLISHED AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL...SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING S OF WW/S 687 AND 689 BY 00Z. ..MEAD.. 07/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 39597982 40097967 41107755 41447619 41237517 40007522 39277712 38837880 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 15:27:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 10:27:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507271556.j6RFuoHF011697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271556 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271555 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-271800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1888 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND/ERN NY SWD INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271555Z - 271800Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18-20Z FROM ERN NY SWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS/DELMARVA REGION. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING NEWD ACROSS OH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OH VLY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. THOUGH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION...A LEE-TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN NY SWD INTO ERN VA. AIR MASS VCNTY THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE OWING TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARM /MINUS 4-6C AT H5/...BUT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARRIVES...TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INITIAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM OVER CNTRL PA/ERN NY EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH LATER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH FROM SCNTRL/SERN PA SWD INTO ERN VA. MODEST WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PROMOTE A SLOW EVOLUTION INTO SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...THOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. ONE OR MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE REGION. ..RACY.. 07/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 38597569 37937635 37577706 37807787 38327865 39297919 40207880 41077782 41807612 42617514 43357408 43727362 43857266 43627199 42897205 42047265 41307321 40187419 39417510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 18:25:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 13:25:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507271854.j6RIs5fV003109@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271852 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-272045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1889 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/FAR NE SD/NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271852Z - 272045Z THREAT FOR ISOLD/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SE ND/FAR NE SD INTO NRN MN. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. AIDED BY SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSES PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INVOF COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT FROM SE ND/FAR NE SD INTO NW/NCNTRL MN. IN SPITE OF MARGINAL BUOYANCY PER 12Z RAOBS/RUC SOUNDINGS...MODEST HEATING AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16C TO -18C AT 500 MB/ COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION TO PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS...MODERATE/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES MAY ALSO SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS...REFERENCE 30-35 KT 2-6 KM WLYS IN GRAND FORKS WSR-88D VWP. ..GUYER.. 07/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 48639493 48669404 48329238 47619237 45969455 45189819 46029941 46809958 47669713 48219591 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 18:40:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 13:40:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507271909.j6RJ9IWi010955@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271908 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-272115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1890 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND AND ERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 692... VALID 271908Z - 272115Z 18Z ALBANY SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THE WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2330 J/KG AND NO INHIBITION. PRIMARY CONVERGENCE AXIS REMAINS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH SITUATED FROM CNTRL NH ACROSS SRN VT AND INTO NERN PA. TSTMS REMAIN COINCIDENT WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT OTHER STORMS WILL FORM FARTHER E ACROSS NRN NJ...SERN NY...NWRN CT AND WRN MA THROUGH 20Z. THE ALBANY SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL...BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AND ERN NY...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND. TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MAY EVOLVE INTO SMALL LEWPS/BOWS AS THEY HEAD EWD INTO SRN NH...CNTRL/WRN MA...CT AND THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA THROUGH LATE AFTN/EVE. ..RACY.. 07/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... 41717555 45067181 44386889 40637242 41107365 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 19:07:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 14:07:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507271937.j6RJb37M024961@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271935 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-272130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1891 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 693... VALID 271935Z - 272130Z LATEST VWP PLOTS AND THE 18Z ABERDEEN MARYLAND SOUNDING INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR/H5 FLOW EXIST N OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. BUT...THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND ALMOST NON-EXISTENT INHIBITION OVER ALL OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. VSBL SATELLITE SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THE CU FIELD ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/VCNTY SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES IS BEGINNING TO SPROUT AND TSTM INITIATION IS LIKELY FROM SCNTRL PA SWD INTO WRN VA BY 20Z. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM CONVECTION WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST MAY AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ACROSS ERN PA AND NJ MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. FARTHER S...DESPITE WEAKER WIND FIELDS...THE WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME AND LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS TO BOW...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE HARRISBURG AND BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AREAS BETWEEN 21-23Z. ..RACY.. 07/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 38057973 40837708 40757333 37937605 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 21:14:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 16:14:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507272143.j6RLhMGd021588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272142 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272142 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-272315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1892 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0442 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CT...MA...ME...NH...NJ...NY...PA...RI...VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 692... VALID 272142Z - 272315Z BROKEN PREFRONTAL LINE OF INTENSE STORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF STRONG/SEVERE CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE OVER HARTFORD COUNTY CT AND WORCESTER COUNTY MA. LARGE SCALE FRONTAL FORCING SPREADING EAST INTO THE AXIS OF HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FROM NRN NJ NEWD TO EXTREME SERN NH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 07/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 40957206 40967535 43007312 44367132 44386885 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 21:17:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 16:17:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507272146.j6RLkEq6022868@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272144 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-272345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR/FAR NRN LA INTO NW MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 272144Z - 272345Z ISOLD PULSE-TYPE DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 2 IN/HR CAN BE EXPECTED. PERSISTENT COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESSIVELY EVOLVE ACROSS SW AR AT THIS TIME. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING INVOF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOL/MCV EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FURTHER FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/EWD EXPANSION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN AR/FAR NRN LA INTO NW MS. DOWNSTREAM AMBIENT AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR/SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES OF 2 IN/HR CAN BE EXPECTED. ..GUYER.. 07/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33969320 34259271 34889170 34788935 34158920 33349022 32439323 32389424 33279439 33689369 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 22:04:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 17:04:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507272233.j6RMXqdB008800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272232 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-280000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1894 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0532 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DC...DE...MD...NJ...PA...VA...WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 693... VALID 272232Z - 280000Z PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING ALONG A SW-NE AXIS FROM CHO THROUGH DCA TO EWR/NYC. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE CURRENT SPEED OF THE LINE...EAST AT 30KT...WOULD BRING THE LINE TO COASTAL NJ AROUND 0100Z. FARTHER SOUTH...THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS MOST OF NRN AND CNTRL CHESAPEAKE BAY BETWEEN 0100Z AND 0300Z. ..CARBIN.. 07/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 37937587 37907947 38917746 40257575 40917404 40937292 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 23:02:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 18:02:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507272331.j6RNVNGA026854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272330 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-280000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1895 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CT...MA...ME...NH...NJ...NY...NJ...NY...PA...RI...VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 692... VALID 272330Z - 280000Z DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS STORMS INGEST COOLER AND MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR MASS NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND WATCH 692 WILL EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 07/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX... 40897208 40977376 43037114 43617008 43526972 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 20:19:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 15:19:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507282048.j6SKmgVn013687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282047 WIZ000-MNZ000-282245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE/SCNTRL MN AND WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282047Z - 282245Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS SE MN/WRN WI. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. TSTMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS NW WI ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WHERE CU FIELD IS ALREADY AGITATED...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SCNTRL/SE MN AND WCNTRL WI. ALTHOUGH OVERALL BUOYANCY IS MARGINAL PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS/TAMDAR DATA...MODEST INSOLATION/HEATING COMBINED WITH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12C TO -16C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. RELATIVELY STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL AMBIENT WIND FIELDS PER BLUE RIVER WI PROFILER/AREA WSR-88D VWPS WILL LEAD TO ORGANIZED/SE MOVING MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 07/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43759444 44329429 45299279 45809017 45468977 44688981 43709112 43549342 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 22:37:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 17:37:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507282306.j6SN6o62009683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282306 NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-290100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0606 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD AND WRN/CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282306Z - 290100Z SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM FAR SE MT/FAR NE WY/WRN SD INTO WRN/NCNTRL NEB. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WATCH. HIGH BASED TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM FAR SE MT/FAR NE WY/WRN SD INTO WRN/NCNTRL NEB INVOF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY UNCAPPED ATTRIBUTABLE TO AMPLE SFC HEATING AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...MAXIMIZED ACROSS SW SD/WRN NEB. MERRIMAN NEB PROFILER FEATURES DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS STORMS PROPAGATE SEWD. THE DEGREE OF SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY/VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WHILE RELATIVELY DRY/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..GUYER.. 07/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 46080431 44860260 41969821 40919886 40910069 41640276 43460460 45360491 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 23:57:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 18:57:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507290026.j6T0QRkl003976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290024 NCZ000-290200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1898 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290024Z - 290200Z A NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HIGH WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE NC PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. AN ARC OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING NEWD AT 25-30KT FROM ALEXANDER COUNTY TO DAVIDSON COUNTY TO MONTGOMERY COUNTY NC THIS EVENING. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS UNDERGONE UPSCALE ORGANIZATION ALONG A DEEPENING CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOL FROM LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ORIGINALLY INITIATING OVER THE CLT AREA. WHILE RECENT VIL TRENDS WOULD INDICATE A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN INTENSITY ALONG THE LINE...SUFFICIENT DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE INT/GSO AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTING THE LINE SOUTH OF ASHEBORO. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE/INFLOW INTO THIS PART OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD ENHANCE STORM INTENSITY THIS AREA. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AND MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE RDU AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..CARBIN.. 07/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP... 35437872 35257989 35868023 35988142 36408111 36438019 36377912 36217856 35937841 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 07:08:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 02:08:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507290737.j6T7b0OQ032685@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290736 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290736Z - 290900Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO WW IS ANTICIPATED. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OVER PORTIONS OF SERN SD...NAMELY MCCOOK SEWD INTO TURNER AND UNION COUNTIES. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG ERN EDGE OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WAA OCCURRING N OF STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WHICH STRETCHES FROM N-CNTRL NEB EWD ACROSS NRN IA. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW FIELDS INDICATE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN AN AXIS FROM NWRN SD SEWD INTO NWRN IA. CORRESPONDING VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS NEAR THE LIFTED PARCEL LEVEL INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. STORMS OVER SERN SD MAY TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY MOVE SEWD OUT OF REGION OF STRONGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR. STRONGER UPSTREAM FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL SD...WHERE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 07/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 44790247 45050135 43699569 42539542 42139632 42899978 43350163 43870249 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 17:30:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 12:30:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507291759.j6THxEaS006432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291758 SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-291930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN GA...CNTRL/ERN SC...FL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 291758Z - 291930Z ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...IS WARMING INTO THE 90S...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THUS...DESPITE WEAKLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...POSSIBLY SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL... IN STRONGER STORMS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR OUTFLOWS/SEA BREEZES...PERHAPS SURFACE FRONT...SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AND BEYOND THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. ..KERR.. 07/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 32918449 33328307 33548176 33918090 34388011 34007940 33287961 32648065 32058140 31028165 30068162 29098126 28688094 27698054 26688090 25838082 26088142 26828182 27528201 28228217 28988247 30258330 30458435 30318473 30908525 31618459 32388454 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 22:22:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 17:22:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507292251.j6TMpMGi000711@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292250 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292250 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-300115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1901 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CA...AZ...NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292250Z - 300115Z STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH WINDS... HAIL... AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY. A WATCH IS NOT IMMINENT BASED ON SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND RANDOM NATURE OF ONGOING CONVECTION. VIGOROUS MULTICELLULAR STORMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN CA AND NRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK ELY WAVE WAS TRANSLATING WNWWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE DESERTS OF SRN AZ. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY REVEALS A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/SHEAR ZONE. AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE BENEATH THIS WEAK SHEAR AXIS AND THIS COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND/OR SUSTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION DRIFTING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING ELY WAVE COMPLEX COULD ENHANCE BOTH DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD RESULT IN HIGH WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST OVER PARTS OF SW AZ ALONG I-8 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MORE ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL FROM BLYTHE NWD TO LAKE HAVASU CITY TO KINGMAN THROUGH THE EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 07/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 32131319 33621538 34161574 35041613 35661565 36111538 36251448 36021371 34721301 34341248 33831172 33341135 32591146 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 18:44:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 13:44:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507301913.j6UJDZws023360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301912 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-302145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR SRN CA AND FAR SRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 301912Z - 302145Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE IMPERIAL VALLEY OF CA AND THE ADJACENT MTNS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOTION OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...EXTENDS NNNWD FROM GULF OF CA INTO THE IMPERIAL VALLEY OF CA AND ERN SLOPES OF THE COASTAL RANGES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE NWD INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT AND FAR SRN NV. AT 19Z...STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SRN CA. CONTINUED INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE DURING THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING. SYNOPTIC-FORCING IS NOT STRONG...HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES OF SRN CA AT 19Z...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR DESERTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...WITH SFC-6KM VALUES RANGING FROM 10-20KT. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL EXHIBIT PULSE CHARACTERISTICS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 2.0" IN THE IMPERIAL VALLEY...AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. ..BANACOS.. 07/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX... 32681653 32971676 33571697 33721718 34201754 34611786 35251798 35741770 35991705 36301628 36621588 36501521 35951474 35091460 34301454 33631462 33321473 32781471 32711521 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 19:39:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 14:39:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507302008.j6UK8Dkq009494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302007 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-302200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE MN...NRN WI...INTO PARTS OF WRN UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302007Z - 302200Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. WARM ADVECTION REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS SUGGESTS THIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED WHERE LOW-LEVEL JET INTERSECTS DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING...AND WITH FURTHER HEATING/MOISTURE ADVECTION...MIXED LAYER CAPE SEEMS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHORTLY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO STRENGTH OF CAPPING...BUT INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AS EARLY AS THE 30/22-31/00Z TIME FRAME. THIS MAY BE AIDED BY INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES PROGRESSING THROUGH MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...AND SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS... PRIMARILY WITH A LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT. ..KERR.. 07/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46089272 46579306 47149313 46929204 46909062 46648921 46168796 45268791 44658842 44598944 44919114 45489217 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 20:09:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 15:09:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507302038.j6UKcB0g018608@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302036 NDZ000-302230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1904 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302036Z - 302230Z UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING STRENGTH OF INHIBITION EXIST...BUT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW. IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING CAP SOUTH AND EAST OF BROAD/WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TOWARD 100F ACROSS THIS REGION...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME DEEPLY MIXED...WITH MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARS TO BE FORMING WEST/SOUTH OF BISMARCK...AND...AS THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD IN FAVORABLE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...THIS COULD BE FAIRLY RAPID...WITH MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. ..KERR.. 07/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48550145 48819992 47749841 46789767 46179961 46990074 47610142 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 22:45:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 17:45:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507302314.j6UNEJWd028033@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302313 SDZ000-310115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302313Z - 310115Z ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO W-CENTRAL SD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOCALIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED NATURE OF THREAT SUGGESTS THAT WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED IN THIS AREA. AT 30/23Z...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSWWD FROM WEAK CYCLONE CENTER /1010MB/ NEAR BIS INTO W-CENTRAL NEB. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME DEEPLY-MIXED ACROSS MUCH OF SD ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ROUGHLY DRY ADIABATIC. THIS HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA WHERE MUCH OF THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN FOCUSED DURING THE PAST HOUR. RAPID CITY VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 40F SUGGEST LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNDRAFTS FROM THESE STORMS AS THEY TRACK ESEWD AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST CORES...HOWEVER...LOW DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH FOR MUCH SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION FROM THESE CELLS. WEAK SYNOPTIC SUPPORT SUGGESTS SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO COOL. ..BANACOS.. 07/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 43150243 43480328 44000388 44450398 44910378 45100318 45170231 45110096 45110006 44879984 44379962 43819946 43559966 43400023 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 05:44:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 00:44:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507310613.j6V6DDN9025307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310612 MNZ000-310745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1906 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310612Z - 310745Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW OVER NERN ND /APPROXIMATELY 60 NE DVL/ WITH ATTENDANT WAVY WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM SURFACE LOW ACROSS FAR SERN MANITOBA AND THEN GENERALLY SEWD THROUGH NERN MN INTO NWRN WI. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS 50-60 WNW RRT HAVE STARTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP MORE SEWD OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR WITH EXTRAPOLATION PLACING LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS TO INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 07Z. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS S OF WARM FRONT INDICATE THAT AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY. CURRENT GRAND FORKS AND DULUTH VWPS INDICATE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT A SUSTAINED AND ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MN. ..MEAD.. 07/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 48979711 48989516 48519276 47899257 47589341 47409441 47739535 48459693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 08:18:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 03:18:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200507310846.j6V8kqia031000@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310846 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310846 MNZ000-310945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1907 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 694... VALID 310846Z - 310945Z ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND WW 694 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT TSTMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR. RELATIVELY STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS WW AREA MAY WELL BE INHIBITING STRONG CIRCULATIONS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT/COLD POOL...WITH A RESULTANT DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY. SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 694 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..MEAD.. 07/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 49129432 48969275 47499284 47739580 48509574 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 23:33:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 18:33:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508010001.j7101k08015927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010000 AZZ000-010200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1908 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010000Z - 010200Z DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PHOENIX METRO AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LOCALIZED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE. AT 2350Z...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER THAT FORMED ACROSS THE SERN AZ MTNS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WNWWD TOWARD THE LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS/BASINS OF S-CENTRAL AZ. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 100F AROUND PHX...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF STORMS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT GUST FRONT AND A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE PHX METRO AREA THROUGH 0130Z. REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE S-CENTRAL AZ/MEXICO BORDER...MAY ALSO BE AIDING LOW-LEVEL SELY STEERING FLOW AND MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD PHX. LEADING GUST FRONT EMANATING FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOVING WWD AT AROUND 30 KT. EVAPORATIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE INTO DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 40F. THIS MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PHX METRO AREA THROUGH 0130Z. ..BANACOS.. 08/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... 33701237 33841205 33841168 33661141 33381111 33151107 32961107 32731131 32711172 32751203 32951235 33141250 33411252 WWWW