[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290622 
TNZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-SCZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-291215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTR AND ERN TN/NERN AL/NRN GA/WRN NC

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 290622Z - 291215Z

SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT IS UNFOLDING WITH ICING
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZING
RAIN RATES OF 0.05 TO .10 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY.  

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH A FRESHLY INJECTED ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE AS FAR SOUTH AS SRN GA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW NOW
OVER NE OK WILL REACH THE MO OZARKS BY 12Z...WITH A BROAD AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO SPREAD EWD. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 60 KT BETWEEN 06-12Z...REINFORCING THE WARM
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC EVIDENT IN 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BIRMINGHAM
AND ATLANTA. ISENTROPIC LIFT...PARTICULARLY STRONG WITHIN THE
294-297K LAYER...WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION. 

06Z SPECIAL SOUNDING FROM NASHVILLE SHOWS SEVERAL CHANGES FROM THE
00Z SOUNDING...INCLUDING STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING. NEARLY 40KT OF SLY FLOW IS PRESENT BELOW
850MB...INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING JET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...SO ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...EVAPORATIVE COOLING
WILL CAUSE SFC TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. MOST LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY BELOW FREEZING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC FREEZING LINE AT 06Z
ACTUALLY EXTENDS WELL INTO ECNTRL AL THROUGH SW/CNTRL GA...AND THIS
LINE WILL SAG SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS GA. 

HEAVIEST ICING NEXT 4-6 HOURS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED OVER NRN 
GA/E CNTRL AL GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS OVER CNTRL AL. ENHANCEMENT
NOTED IN IR IMAGERY OVER CNTRL AL SUGGESTS STRONGER LIFT IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...TRANSLATING INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. 

OVER FAR WRN NC...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AFTER 09-10Z AS
SNOW OR SLEET GIVEN SUBFREEZING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.

..TAYLOR.. 01/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...

35778310 36148227 36558223 36718333 36438438 36008656
34628697 32918720 31968634 32058340 32818269 34078280
35478348 

WWWW