[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211216 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-211645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ND / NRN AND ERN SD / WRN MN

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 211216Z - 211645Z

FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER SRN ND AS WELL AS NRN AND ERN SD
WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 0.05 IN. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW FARTHER NE WITH HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR
DEVELOPING FROM ERN ND INTO SWRN MN.

PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS MORNING ACROSS ND IN
RESPONSE TO BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. VERTICAL
MOTION FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
SEWD AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.  ORIENTATION OF THERMAL GRADIENT
AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WITHIN A NW-SE ORIENTED CORRIDOR.  

12Z BIS AND ABR RAOBS INDICATE SLEET PROFILES WITH WARM NOSE AROUND
800 MB.  AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES...A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN
OVER NERN SD WITH ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. FARTHER E INTO ERN ND
AND WRN MN...PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SNOW.

..JEWELL.. 01/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

43909675 44259819 45460129 46640180 47580231 47990299
48310318 49010315 49020190 49019864 48999741 46149492
44879439 44019486 

WWWW