[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170515
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170515 
MEZ000-MAZ000-RIZ000-170915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL MA AND COASTAL ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 170515Z - 170915Z

A CONTINUATION OF LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL MA THROUGH 10Z...WITH SNOW RATES DIMINISHING
THEREAFTER. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NNEWD FROM THE GULF OF
ME INTO THE MID-COAST AND DOWNEAST REGIONS OF ME BETWEEN
06-08Z...PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. 

AT 5Z...SURFACE CYCLONE ESTIMATED 200NM SE OF ACK WILL PASS WELL
EAST OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND TRACKING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
JUST SE OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 17/12Z. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE
FORCING WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...MODERATE 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE PERIODS OF SW-NE ORIENTED
MESOSCALE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTH SHORE OF BOS AND CAPE COD
THROUGH 10 UTC. A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS LIKELY
THEREAFTER AS FORCING MOVES NE OF THE AREA AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC
COLD ADVECTION REGIME MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BACK TO NLY AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH GUSTS AT COASTAL POINTS TO 35KT LIKELY. GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-35KT HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS FAR SERN MA...THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SUGGEST BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR ARE LIKELY IN NARROW...HEAVIER BANDS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 

MEANWHILE...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FROM THE MID-COAST REGION
OF ME EWD ACROSS DOWNEAST ME BETWEEN 6-9Z AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
IN 700-500MB LAYER TRANSLATES NNEWD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS AND EXTREMELY DEEP DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER APPROACHING
10KFT PER 3Z RUC SHOULD MAXIMIZE SNOW TO LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATIOS
ALLOWING FOR LOCALIZED 1-1.5 IN/HR SNOWFALL DURING THE 6-12Z PERIOD.

..BANACOS.. 01/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...

44056948 44856854 45306768 45226714 44966691 44416735
43056866 41296976 40937023 40937131 41657108 42547076
43506999 

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