[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080544 
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-080715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...SWRN/CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1...

VALID 080544Z - 080715Z

05Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1014 MB LOW VCNTY BOWLING GREEN KY WITH
STRONGEST 2-HRLY PRESSURE FALL AXIS SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE MID-OH
VLY.  STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE
NEWD THROUGH THE TN VLY AND THE MORE INTENSE BRANCH OF THE SWLY LLJ
SHOULD START TO MIGRATE NWD OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.  

STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTING THE NRN PART OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.  WARM SECTOR HAS EXPANDED INTO NRN AL...AND BIRMINGHAM
RADAR HAS SHOWN THAT TSTM CELLS ACROSS CNTRL AL WERE EXHIBITING SOME
BRIEF TENDENCIES FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.  THUS...AN ISOLD TORNADO OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD OCCUR...BUT OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.


FARTHER S...WARM SECTOR IS MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS EXTREME SRN MS
AND SWRN AL.  BUT...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD
WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES OFF TO THE NORTH.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES.

..RACY.. 01/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...

31068890 34068667 33988524 31038764 

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