[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080028 
PAZ000-080430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 080028Z - 080430Z

A MIX OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PA FROM SW-NE TOWARD 08/06Z. FREEZING RAIN
RATES OF 0.05-0.1 IN/HR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT.

AT 08/00Z...A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXISTED OVER CENTRAL MS WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN. LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES HAVE
ALLOWED MOIST AIR MASS TO STREAM NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF OF
MEXICO NWD TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50KT EVIDENT IN
VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL PROPAGATE NEWD TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 06Z. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF MOBILE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE SRN PLAINS TRACKING TOWARD THE
MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE INTO CENTRAL PA TOWARD 06Z TONIGHT ON WRN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NERN U.S. COAST. SHALLOW LAYER OF SUB-ZERO
WET BULB TEMPERATURES EXISTED AT 00Z AND SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL PA.

THE 18Z ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS GRADUALLY
SATURATE AND BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SURFACE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM
OF FREEZING RAIN AROUND 05Z AT STATE COLLEGE AND AROUND 07Z AT
WILLIAMSPORT. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN PRESENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT REGION OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY MOVING NEWD AT 30-35KT. UPSTREAM
PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE OHIO VALLEY HAVE BEEN AROUND
0.1"/HR...AND SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN RATES
BETWEEN 0.05"-0.1"/HR ACROSS CENTRAL PA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS PRECIPITATION ZONE GRADUALLY MOVES NEWD.

..BANACOS.. 01/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...

40437604 40287628 40187706 40167776 40307890 40457915
40917929 41317912 41497874 41617807 41697765 41667711
41597661 41527619 41417594 41027591 40847590 

WWWW