[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060047 
PAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-060645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST WED JAN 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IN...NRN OH...NW PA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 060047Z - 060645Z

FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE GLAZE RATES OF UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR OVER
THE THREAT AREA.

STRONG WARM TEMPERATURE ADVECTION NORTH OF THE 850MB WARM FRONT AND
NEAR THE NOSE OF A SWLY LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATION OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.  SWLY WINDS OF 50KT IN THE LVX
VWP AT 00Z CAPTURE THE CORE OF THE LLJ MAXIMUM WHICH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD.  AS A RESULT...HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECT TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CONTRIBUTES TO ANOTHER HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION SURGE AFTER 07Z. 
THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD WITH A DEEP WARM LAYER EVIDENT IN
800MB TO 650MB ILN AND DTX SOUNDINGS.  ALTHOUGH 00Z DTX LAYER IS SUB
FREEZING...THE EAST WEST 700MB CONFLUENCE AXIS IS LOCATED NORTH OF
LAKE ERIE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRANSITION ZONE WILL CONTINUE ITS
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION.

..SCHNEIDER.. 01/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...

41088495 41468408 41798308 41798193 41768057 41607957
41637867 41567816 41067797 40967894 40967998 40808158
40658352 40458552 

WWWW