[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 050112
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050111 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-050615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...NW OK...SWRN THROUGH E CNTRL
KS

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET 

VALID 050111Z - 050615Z

PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM PARTS OF THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES NEWD THROUGH NW OK INTO SRN AND CNTRL KS. FREEZING RAIN
RATES FROM .05 TO .1 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY. LOCALLY HIGHER
RATES FROM .15 TO .2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR...GENERALLY AOB 1000 M DEEP...REMAINS
OVER MUCH OF CNTRL/S KS AND SWD INTO OK AND NW TX WITH THE FREEZING
LINE FROM NERN KS SWWD THROUGH NW OK INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE.
ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER...PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ALONG A
30-40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL WARM
NOSE...AND THIS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS. A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS KS AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MIGRATES
TOWARD THE MS VALLEY.

THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER KS WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SWD MOVING
ARCTIC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SW THROUGH NE KS. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD THROUGH W TX. THE
PERSISTENT STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
COMBINE TO ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION AND PRECIPITATION RATES/COVERAGE
FROM THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES NEWD INTO SRN AND CNTRL KS. A MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW MAY OCCUR FROM PARTS OF THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES THROUGH SW AND CNTRL KS LATER TONIGHT.

..DIAL.. 01/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

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