[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042348 
TXZ000-NMZ000-050145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH PARTS OF W TX INTO EXTREME
ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042348Z - 050145Z

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF W TX INTO THE
TX PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY ERN NM THIS EVENING. ISOLATED MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. THE THREAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW.

EARLY THIS EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM PARTS OF SERN OK
SWWD THROUGH W TX TO THE N OF BIG SPRINGS AND MIDLAND. THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF
AND N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND MODEST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NEWD TOWARD W TX AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING DEEP LAYER
ASCENT NEAR AND N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
DEVELOPING OVER W TX THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
SUCH THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT N OF THE BOUNDARY AND BECOME
ELEVATED SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION. SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS THROUGH
THE CLOUD LAYER FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION AND MODEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 01/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

32150118 32560288 33710360 34930272 35180142 34200000
32799952 32230011 

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