[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011901 
MNZ000-WIZ000-NDZ000-020000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NRN MN AND FAR NWRN WI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 011901Z - 020000Z

MOD-HVY SNOW WITH HRLY ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1-2 IN WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ENEWD FROM CENTRAL ND INTO ERN ND...NRN MN AND FAR NWRN
WI...OR ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AXIS FROM FAR TO BRD TO HYR
THROUGH 00Z.

INCREASING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN ND/SD. REGIONAL
VWP/PROFILERS INDICATE INCREASING SELY COMPONENT OF MID LVL WINDS
ACROSS SRN MN SOUTH OF MID LEVEL FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL
AID IN CONTINUED ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ACROSS ERN ND INTO NWRN WI
THROUGH 00Z. A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN THE -14
TO -18 DEG C RANGE IN THIS LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH. ADDITIONALLY...AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER  OF -3 TO 8 DEG C
CENTERED AROUND 800 MB WILL SUPPORT AGGREGATION. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7 DEG C/KM FROM 600-500 MB ALONG WITH HIGH
SNOW-LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATIOS OF 20-30:1 DUE TO GROUND TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WILL SUPPORT HRLY SNOWFALL RATES ABOVE 1
INCH WITHIN THE HEAVIEST E-W SNOW BANDS AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 00Z.

..CROSBIE.. 01/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS...

48839515 49029848 48790084 47790107 46369948 46239713
45829476 45699368 45479203 46499079 48008978 

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