[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011832 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-012330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SERN SD...CENTRAL/SRN MN AND WRN/CENTRAL
WI

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET 

VALID 011832Z - 012330Z

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION
OF SLEET IS ANTICIPATED FROM PORTIONS OF WCENTRAL/SWRN MN NEWD INTO
WCENTRAL WI THROUGH 00Z...WITH STEADY MODERATE FREEZING RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM FAR SERN SD/NWRN IA INTO NCENTRAL IA/FAR SCENTRAL
MN. IN BOTH AREAS...HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
0.10-0.15 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT ICE/SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS BY 00Z. 

PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER NWRN KS AT 18Z
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO SERN NEB BY 00Z. DIURNAL AFFECTS
HAVE LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN
IA. BACKING 850-700 MB FLOW JET EVIDENT ON REGIONAL VWP/S OVER THE
LAST 2-3 HOURS COMBINED WITH INCREASED FRONTAL SLOPE WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION OVER NWRN IA/SERN SD AND SWRN
MN THROUGH 20Z BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL MN/WCENTRAL WI BY 00Z.
MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BENEATH LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS OVER SERN SD/NWRN IA AND SWRN
MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ENEWD INTO NCENTRAL
IA/CENTRAL MN AND EVENTUALLY WCENTRAL WI THOUGH 00Z. FCST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FAVORING HVY
ACCUMULATIONS. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DELINEATION OF THE SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN LINE IS DIFFICULT TO FCST...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
ANTICIPATION OF NWD MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LINE THOUGH
THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THAT  THERMO PROFILES WILL FAVOR SLEET OVER
MOST OF SRN/CENTRAL MN AND WCENTRAL WI...WITH FREEZING RAIN THE
PREDOMINATE PTYPE OVER NWRN/NCENTRAL IA AND EXTREME SERN MN.

..CROSBIE.. 01/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...

45649272 45529638 44519743 43149692 42749554 42589453
42789238 43419099 44149028 45559118 

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