[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011248 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-011645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN HALF OF IA / CENTRAL AND SRN MN / EXTREME WRN
WI

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 011248Z - 011645Z

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS IA INTO MN
AND WRN WI.  HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05 - 0.10 IN ARE
EXPECTED.

A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD ON SWLY
LOW LEVEL JET...WHILE SUB FREEZING AIR REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. BAND
OF FREEZING RAIN OVER CENTRAL IA AT 1230Z IS COINCIDENT WITH STRONG
THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND 850 MB AND WILL SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME INTO
SRN MN AND SWRN WI.  FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 850 TO 700 MB WILL
STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR EVENTUAL SATURATION OF AIR MASS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL NW-SE ORIENTED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION.

FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE TYPE OVER IA...CHANGING TO
SLEET FARTHER N INTO MN AND WRN WI.  12Z MPX RAOB SHOWS DEEP SUB
FREEZING LAYER ABOUT 4000 FT DEEP BELOW 850 WARM NOSE WHICH IS
FAVORABLE FOR SLEET. BY THE END OF THE MD PERIOD...HEAVY SNOW MAY BE
IN PROGRESS W OF MPX...IN THE ALEXANDRIA VICINITY.

..JEWELL.. 01/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

41719164 41479187 41799294 42039364 42449462 43349494
44109531 44949556 45769548 45889490 45159280 44469150
43799052 43549039 43109054 42239112 

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