From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 12:47:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 07:47:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501011249.j01CnMGQ015963@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011248 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-011645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN HALF OF IA / CENTRAL AND SRN MN / EXTREME WRN WI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 011248Z - 011645Z FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS IA INTO MN AND WRN WI. HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05 - 0.10 IN ARE EXPECTED. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD ON SWLY LOW LEVEL JET...WHILE SUB FREEZING AIR REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. BAND OF FREEZING RAIN OVER CENTRAL IA AT 1230Z IS COINCIDENT WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND 850 MB AND WILL SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME INTO SRN MN AND SWRN WI. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 850 TO 700 MB WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EVENTUAL SATURATION OF AIR MASS AND DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL NW-SE ORIENTED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE TYPE OVER IA...CHANGING TO SLEET FARTHER N INTO MN AND WRN WI. 12Z MPX RAOB SHOWS DEEP SUB FREEZING LAYER ABOUT 4000 FT DEEP BELOW 850 WARM NOSE WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR SLEET. BY THE END OF THE MD PERIOD...HEAVY SNOW MAY BE IN PROGRESS W OF MPX...IN THE ALEXANDRIA VICINITY. ..JEWELL.. 01/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 41719164 41479187 41799294 42039364 42449462 43349494 44109531 44949556 45769548 45889490 45159280 44469150 43799052 43549039 43109054 42239112 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 13:24:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 08:24:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501011326.j01DQ21a025656@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011325 MNZ000-NDZ000-011730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN ND / NWRN MN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 011325Z - 011730Z SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NRN AND ERN ND AND WILL DEVELOP INTO NWRN MN BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 - 1.5 IN / HR APPEAR LIKELY. 12Z BIS RAOB SATURATED UP TO ABOUT 500 MB WITH FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH BETWEEN 700 AND 550 MB. CONTINUED THETA-E ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN AFOREMENTIONED 700-550 LAYER SHIFTING EWD WITH TIME INTO ERN ND AND NWRN MN. ..JEWELL.. 01/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 47400056 47430122 47590207 48280239 49010244 49019784 49009652 48089565 47549520 46789555 46769686 47299903 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 18:31:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 13:31:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501011833.j01IXtLN023465@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011832 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-012330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SERN SD...CENTRAL/SRN MN AND WRN/CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 011832Z - 012330Z FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION OF SLEET IS ANTICIPATED FROM PORTIONS OF WCENTRAL/SWRN MN NEWD INTO WCENTRAL WI THROUGH 00Z...WITH STEADY MODERATE FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING FROM FAR SERN SD/NWRN IA INTO NCENTRAL IA/FAR SCENTRAL MN. IN BOTH AREAS...HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.10-0.15 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT ICE/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS BY 00Z. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER NWRN KS AT 18Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO SERN NEB BY 00Z. DIURNAL AFFECTS HAVE LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA. BACKING 850-700 MB FLOW JET EVIDENT ON REGIONAL VWP/S OVER THE LAST 2-3 HOURS COMBINED WITH INCREASED FRONTAL SLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION OVER NWRN IA/SERN SD AND SWRN MN THROUGH 20Z BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL MN/WCENTRAL WI BY 00Z. MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BENEATH LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS OVER SERN SD/NWRN IA AND SWRN MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ENEWD INTO NCENTRAL IA/CENTRAL MN AND EVENTUALLY WCENTRAL WI THOUGH 00Z. FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FAVORING HVY ACCUMULATIONS. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DELINEATION OF THE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LINE IS DIFFICULT TO FCST...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND ANTICIPATION OF NWD MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LINE THOUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THAT THERMO PROFILES WILL FAVOR SLEET OVER MOST OF SRN/CENTRAL MN AND WCENTRAL WI...WITH FREEZING RAIN THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE OVER NWRN/NCENTRAL IA AND EXTREME SERN MN. ..CROSBIE.. 01/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 45649272 45529638 44519743 43149692 42749554 42589453 42789238 43419099 44149028 45559118 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 18:47:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 13:47:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501011849.j01InTtf028898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011845 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011845 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-012245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IA...SRN WI AND PORTIONS OF NRN IL CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 011845Z - 012245Z A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AFTERNOON...WITH DEVELOPMENT INTO SCENTRAL WI AND NRN IL THROUGH 21Z. HRLY ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE FROM 0.05-0.10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL ADVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN WEAKER THAN FARTHER NORTH THUS EXPECT OVERALL LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THAN ACROSS FAR NRN IA/MN AND CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND COMBINED WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MUCAPES FROM 50-150 J/KG ...WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. AN EARLIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN IA INTO SWRN WI HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT SATURATION SO THAT ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE EFFICIENT IN REACHING THE GROUND. LOW LEVEL WAA WILL LEAD TO NWD MOVEMENT OF THE SFC FREEZING LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE SFC LOW MVMNT WILL BE ENEWD INTO SERN NEB AND WET-BULB EFFECTS WILL BE OCCURRING...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT THE SFC FREEZING LINE WILL MOVE MUCH NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH 00Z. OVER SCENTRAL WI/NRN IL WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS NOT FALLEN MUCH TODAY...A DELAY IN LOW-MID LEVEL SATURATION SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SLEET AS THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF ONSET OF PRECIP. PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE IMMEDIATE CHI METRO AREA...WHERE NELY WINDS OFF LK MI SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. ..CROSBIE.. 01/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43689076 42909326 42199377 41679346 41259186 41119084 41118952 41298867 41818767 43488808 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 19:04:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 14:04:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501011906.j01J67k3001306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011901 MNZ000-WIZ000-NDZ000-020000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NRN MN AND FAR NWRN WI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 011901Z - 020000Z MOD-HVY SNOW WITH HRLY ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1-2 IN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM CENTRAL ND INTO ERN ND...NRN MN AND FAR NWRN WI...OR ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AXIS FROM FAR TO BRD TO HYR THROUGH 00Z. INCREASING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN ND/SD. REGIONAL VWP/PROFILERS INDICATE INCREASING SELY COMPONENT OF MID LVL WINDS ACROSS SRN MN SOUTH OF MID LEVEL FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL AID IN CONTINUED ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ACROSS ERN ND INTO NWRN WI THROUGH 00Z. A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN THE -14 TO -18 DEG C RANGE IN THIS LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. ADDITIONALLY...AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER OF -3 TO 8 DEG C CENTERED AROUND 800 MB WILL SUPPORT AGGREGATION. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7 DEG C/KM FROM 600-500 MB ALONG WITH HIGH SNOW-LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATIOS OF 20-30:1 DUE TO GROUND TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WILL SUPPORT HRLY SNOWFALL RATES ABOVE 1 INCH WITHIN THE HEAVIEST E-W SNOW BANDS AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS... 48839515 49029848 48790084 47790107 46369948 46239713 45829476 45699368 45479203 46499079 48008978 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 00:20:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 19:20:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501020022.j020MCdD004189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020021 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-020615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NCNTRL/NERN IA...MUCH OF WI...FAR NRN IL AND MUCH OF LOWER MI/SRN UPPER MI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 020021Z - 020615Z SIGNIFICANT ICE/SLEET EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WHILE PROGRESSING ENEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE WRN/NRN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH 06Z. TWO CORRIDORS OF HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. ONE AXIS IS ANTICIPATED TO EXTEND FROM NCNTRL/NERN IA NEWD ACROSS SERN MN...CENTRAL/NERN WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI. THE OTHER AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCENTRAL WI EWD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI. IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS...ISOLATED 0.15 TO 0.25 IN/HR LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION RATES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LVL JET MAX ROTATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF WRN KS/NEB. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET HAS ALREADY ENHANCED CLOUD TOP COOLING ON IR IMAGERY OVER WRN IA/SWRN MN AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS. AS THE UPPER JET MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD...IT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEWD ENHANCEMENT OF ALREADY MODERATE TO STRONG LIFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NRN JET MAX OVER THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT BOUNDARY. THUS A DEEP LAYER OF VERTICAL MOTION WILL EXTEND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONTAL TRACK FROM NCENTRAL IA NEWD INTO NCENTRAL WI THROUGH 06Z. THE TRANSITION ZONE FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THIS REGION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THUS A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE. STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL EXIST FROM NCENTRAL IA NEWD INTO NCENTRAL WI/WRN U.P OF MI THROUGH 06Z. ELSEWHERE...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD INTO SERN MN THROUGH 06Z...THE SFC FREEZING LINE IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT NWD TO A ALO TO MSN TO MKE LINE BY 06Z. THUS FREEZING RAIN OVER ERN IA/FAR NRN IL AND FAR SRN WI WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTH/NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FARTHER ENE...A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN A SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET OVER MUCH OF ECENTRAL WI THROUGH 02Z AND WRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI THROUGH 03Z. WELL REMOVED FROM THE SFC LOW DRY ELY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE SFC FREEZING ISOTHERM BEFORE AND AFTER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI. INITIAL PRECIPITATION OVER ECENTRAL WI EWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE FORM OF SLEET DUE TO THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE HEELS OF A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET/SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY AIDING IN MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER ERN IA/WRN IL WILL AID IN QUICK SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM SW-NE FROM 02-06Z. COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...MUCAPES FROM 100-300 J/KG...MODERATE TO HVY FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION BETWEEN 02-06Z. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GIVEN CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION WILL REACH A JXN TO HTL LINE BY 06Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 46119001 46188721 45658586 44888475 44258404 43428350 42588355 42338420 42208600 41888777 41859080 42389303 42889359 43719385 45219321 45699205 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 00:52:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 19:52:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501020054.j020sJse014227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020053 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-020600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN ND...NRN MN...FAR NWRN WI/WRN U.P OF MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 020053Z - 020600Z HVY SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVER FAR NERN ND...NWRN MN THROUGH 03Z...WHILE DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS FAR NWRN WI AND THE WRN U.P OF MI DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. HRLY ACCUMULATION IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NERN MN/FAR NWRN WI/WRN U.P OF MI REGION WHERE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NNEWD ACROSS ERN SD/SERN ND. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...MODERATE TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT W-E ORIENTED HVY SNOW BANDS ACROSS NRN MN AND FAR NERN ND FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS BEFORE VERTICAL MOTION DIMINISHES RAPIDLY WITH NWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE DRY SLOT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS NERN MN/FAR NWRN WI...STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER COINCIDENT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT HVY SNOWFALL EWD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S WILL SUPPORT 20:1 SNOW/WATER RATIOS. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 LAYER SUPPORTING A DEEP AGGREGATE ZONE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN HRLY SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH EWD INTO THE FAR WRN U.P. OF MI. AS THE UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD...HVY SNOW SHOULD END OVER NERN MN/FAR NWRN WI BETWEEN 03-06Z AND OVER THE WRN U.P. OF MI SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ..CROSBIE.. 01/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...FGF... 48489304 48979540 49079899 48049916 47889719 47809540 46579297 46369199 46109029 46388914 47038828 47438778 47958946 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 06:07:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 01:07:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501020609.j0269JPF019900@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020608 MIZ000-WIZ000-021015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI / UP OF MI / CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 020608Z - 021015Z SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER NRN LOWER MI...EXTREME NERN WI...AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL UP OF MI. HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.05 - 0.15 IN WILL BE LIKELY. SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE OVER THE UP OF MI...WITH HRLY ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1.00 IN. BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FEED MOISTURE NWD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FREEZING LINE IS MOVING NWD WITH AXIS OF WARM AIR ACROSS ERN WI / LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SHORT AROUND GREEN BAY WI...SEWD INTO MUSKEGON MI. THE HEAVIEST ICING WILL BE FARTHER N WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S F WILL ALLOW FOR LONGER DURATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION RATES LOCALLY WITH HRLY RATES AROUND 0.15 IN. ..JEWELL.. 01/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB... 44028371 43868395 43648359 44038292 43728267 42998248 42458385 42498452 43048525 43358573 43668620 44058653 44818745 44868829 44718874 45938896 46978916 47528791 46838518 46538420 46088400 45228327 44428323 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 12:12:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 07:12:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501021214.j02CEsmQ024188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021214 MIZ000-021415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 021214Z - 021415Z FREEZING RAIN...MIXED WITH SOME SLEET AND SNOW...WILL END BY 1400/1430Z ACROSS THE NERN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AT 12Z...A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION STRETCHED FROM NEAR HTL SWWD TO NEAR MKG AND WAS MOVING ENEWD AT 45 KT. THIS CURRENT MOTION WOULD PUSH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EAST OF MI BY 14Z. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF LOWER MI...WITH MID AND UPPER 40S LOCATED ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE AND WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS AIDED IN SHIFTING THE FREEZING LINE NEWD. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING AS THE HEAVIER WINTER PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FROM NEAR MBS TO HTL TO OSC. THE STRONG WARMING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RAISE READINGS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REST OF NERN LOWER MI WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT COMING TO AN END BY 1430Z. ..IMY.. 01/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 44428539 45158334 44678327 43728386 43788526 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 15:31:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 10:31:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501021533.j02FXRFD016816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021525 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021524 VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-022000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0924 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NY...NCENTRAL/NERN PA...WRN VT...AND FAR WRN MA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 021524Z - 022000Z SLEET MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO INTO NRN NY AND NWRN VT THROUGH 20Z. ADDITIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL END ACROSS SCENTRAL NY/NCENTRAL PA THROUGH 17Z...WHILE DEVELOPING EWD INTO FAR NERN PA...ECENTRAL/SERN NY...SWRN VT AND FAR WRN MA BETWEEN 17-20Z. HIGHEST ACCUMULATION RATES WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY...WHERE HRLY AMTS OF 0.05-0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 17-20Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SFC FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM FAR WRN NY SEWD INTO NRN NJ AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MOST QUICKLY OVER WRN NY. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH MDT THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER OVER SCENTRAL NY/NCENTRAL PA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AROUND 30 KTS. COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE MID 30S...THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END OVER THIS AREA BY 17Z. FARTHER NE...DRIER AIR OVER ERN/NRN NY AND WRN VT/FAR WRN MA WILL SUPPORT SLEET AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP AS STRONG ELEVATED WAA OCCURS BENEATH SLOWLY SATURATING SFC-850 MB LAYER. DEGREE OF WAA WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER PRECIP RATES OVER NRN NY INTO NWRN VT WITH PRECIP RATES UP TO 0.10 IN/HR POSSIBLE FROM 17-20Z. EVENTUALLY THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED WARMING...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION...WILL SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER FROM SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN FROM W-E ACROSS NRN/ERN NY THROUGH 20Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 44807506 45017247 44047264 42657305 41767396 41677690 42627700 43327658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 19:14:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 14:14:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501021916.j02JGMwU025396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021908 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-022345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN NY...WRN/CENTRAL MA...MOST OF VT/NH AND ME CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 021908Z - 022345Z A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH 00Z. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH ERN ME BY 00Z. SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE OVER NRN/CENTRAL ME...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER NRN NY...NRN VT/NRN NH INTO MUCH OF SRN ME...WHERE HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATION RATES FROM 0.05-0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH OVER ECENTRAL NY...SRN VT/NH AND WRN/CNTRL MA...LESSER HRLY AMOUNTS FROM 0.01-0.05 INCH WILL OCCUR. RECENT VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD DECK IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE EWD IN A STRONG WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA/ERN GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER MIXED PRECIP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA...WHERE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAKER...AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE ONSET AND DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION. FURTHER NORTH...THE DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGH 700 MB COMBINED WITH STRONGER MID LVL DEFORMATION WILL SUPPORT HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ONCE LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS. IN BOTH AREAS...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS BENEATH ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SLEET. AS LOW LEVEL SATURATION ENSUES...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...PTYPE WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT SFC TEMP AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF ACCUMULATING SLEET WILL BEGIN OVER NH/SRN ME AND CNTRL MA BY 22Z...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FROM SW-NE OVER VT AND WRN MA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. AS LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES UPSTREAM...A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/ERN NY IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL ME...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL WAA WILL ENHANCE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO NRN ME BETWEEN 20-22Z....PROMOTING MDT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR HVY SNOW WILL BE THE NECESSARY SATURATION IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER AND OVERALL MODEST MID LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS...SNOW/WATER RATIOS OF 20:1 WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 IN/HR RATES IN THE MDT SNOWFALL. ..CROSBIE.. 01/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 47086822 45226883 44176939 42827130 42717339 43337550 44947501 45117139 47176944  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 00:18:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 19:18:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501030019.j030JwMh004971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030019 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-030545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0619 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY...VT/NH...MUCH OF ME...NCENTRAL MA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 030019Z - 030545Z SLEET OVER PORTIONS OF NRN NH/SRN ME WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 06Z...WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF VT...SRN NH AND FAR NCENTRAL MA. HRLY ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.10 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP BANDS THROUGH 06Z. FARTHER NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN ME...EXPECT SNOW TO CHANGE OVER SLEET BETWEEN 03-06Z WITH SIMILAR LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATION RATES. SECONDARY ISENTROPICALLY GENERATED PRECIPITATION BAND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ERN QUEBEC UPPER JET MAX WILL AID IN PROGRESSIVE MVMNT OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 06Z. CONTINUED WAA IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER WILL AID IN A CHANGE OF PTYPE OVER MUCH OF NRN NH/SRN ME FROM SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 03Z...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET NORTH OF THIS REGION ACROSS ERN/CENTRAL ME. AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT...EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NERN NY/NWRN VT THROUGH 02Z AND OVER SRN VT/SRN NH AND NCENTRAL MA BETWEEN 02-05Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 42847078 42517207 42737278 43567337 44077394 44607394 44957358 45227110 46277005 46086762 44786718 43617012 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 01:01:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 20:01:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501030103.j0313a7w019283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030102 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-030500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN OK...MUCH OF KS...FAR SCENTRAL/SERN NEB...SCENTRAL/SERN IA AND NCENTRAL MO CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 030102Z - 030500Z FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NCNTRL MO...SCNTRL/SERN IA THROUGH 05Z...WITH LIGHT TO MDT FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CURRENT SFC WET-BULB FREEZING LINE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN OK PANHANDLE/FAR NWRN OK NEWD TO THE KC METRO AREA DURING THE 02Z-06Z TIME FRAME. HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES AROUND 0.05 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A DEVELOPING LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT PRECIPITATION OVER ECENTRAL/NERN NM AHEAD OF EJECTING CENTRAL NM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD...LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/DEEP GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN/CENTRAL OK...AIDED BY BACKED FLOW IN THE 850 MB LAYER EVIDENT REGIONAL VWP/S AND PROFILER DATA...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT NWD FROM WRN OK INTO MUCH OF KS. HOWEVER...VRY DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS SEEN ON THE 00Z DDC/TOP SOUNDING WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE STEADIER/MDT PRECIPITATION RATES CAN DEVELOP. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE THIS OCCUR THROUGH 04Z WILL BE FROM SWRN KS ENEWD INTO NCENTRAL KS/FAR SCENTRAL NEB WHERE STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DUE TO AN INCREASING DEFORMATION OF THE PREEXISTING MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OCCURS. AS PRECIPITATION OCCURS IN THIS BAND...IT IS LIKELY TO START OUT AS SLEET DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LAYER BELOW THE STRONG MID LEVEL FORCED LAYER. BUT AS SATURATION OCCURS...DEPTH OF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER /100 MB/ WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF W-E BANDS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THIS REGION BETWEEN 04-06Z. OTHERWISE...FORCING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE BELOW DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER INITIALLY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT INITIAL SLEET FALL. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT CURRENT FALLING TRENDS IN DEWPTS ALONG WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF COLD AIRMASS AND WET BULB EFFECTS OF PRECIPITATION...THAT THE FREEZING LINE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH 06Z. FARTHER NE...AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN KS CONTINUES TO LIFT ENE ACROSS MO...ELEVATED WAA/LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MDT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NCENTRAL MO INTO SCENTRAL/SERN IA. ..CROSBIE.. 01/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 39970040 38240142 37020074 36759969 36809881 37219777 38459579 39419447 39969292 40219184 40969139 41249326 40599659 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 05:20:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 00:20:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501030522.j035MWdo016531@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030521 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030521 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-030945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF E CENTRAL / NRN KS...SERN NEBRASKA...NWRN MO CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 030521Z - 030945Z FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF KS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING NEWD INTO SERN NEBRASKA AND NWRN MO. HRLY RATES OF 0.05-0.10 WILL BE LIKELY...WITH HEAVIER RATES LOCALLY UP TO 0.25 IN. PERSISTENT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY BRINGING WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD INTO KS...WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING NW OF A ICT TO EMP TO TOP LINE. MODELS INDICATE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH FORCING STRONGEST OVER E CENTRAL KS IN THE SLN/EMP/EWK VICINITY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER S CENTRAL KS...AND SEEMS TO BE CORRELATED WELL WITH RUC 850 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. EXPECT HRLY PRECIPITATION RATES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 0.10 IN/HR...WITH STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING UP TO 0.25 IN/HR FZRA RATES OVER E CENTRAL KS. FARTHER N...FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.10 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY INTO NRN KS AND SERN NEBRASKA WHERE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DECREASES. FORCING WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO NRN MO WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SWLY. ..JEWELL.. 01/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 40709581 40289514 40139460 39789424 39589438 39279487 39049560 38339588 37959637 37639742 37369852 38259893 38759980 39499982 40169932 40569826 40889716 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 06:00:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 01:00:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501030602.j0362odU030200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030602 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030601 CAZ000-031000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL RANGE IN SRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 030601Z - 031000Z SNOW RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH HRLY RATES AROUND 2 IN BEFORE 12Z. INCREASING DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND COOLING MID LEVELS WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOWFALL ABOVE 4500-5000 FT MSL. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE TOWARDS MORNING WHEN SELY LOW LEVEL JET AND UPSLOPE IS STRONGEST. ..JEWELL.. 01/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX... 34451901 34571954 34782001 35002000 34931925 34911906 34751857 34491768 34131773 34151806 34341867 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 12:40:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 07:40:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501031242.j03Cg7S3001100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031241 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-031645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS / SERN NEBRASKA / NRN MO / SRN IA / EXTREME NWRN IL CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 031241Z - 031645Z MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL SHIFT NEWD OUT OF KS INTO IA MO AND NRN IL. HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.10-0.20 IN WILL BE LIKELY. WEAK VORT MAX NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN PROFILER DATA NOW MOVING ACROSS NERN KS HELPING TO FOCUS ZONE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 0.20 IN NOTED LAST FEW HOURS OVER ERN KS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY ENEWD...AND WILL CAUSE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ZONE WITHIN 850-700 MB LAYER TO SHIFT ENEWD AS WELL AS WINDS VEER IN THIS LAYER. BY 15Z...MAIN FORCING SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER NRN MO / SRN IA...WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. 12Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWS SLEET PROFILE AND ICE PELLETS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER SERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...WITH TOPEKA RAOB SHOWING A SOLID FREEZING RAIN PROFILE WITH ABOUT 130 MUCAPE. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF DEEP FRONTAL ZONE...SLEET WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IA...MIXING WITH AND TURNING TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN SWD INTO NRN MO. PRECIPITATION MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. PRECIPITATION TYPE FCST A BIT LESS CERTAIN OVER NRN IL AS STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES BY 18Z. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL ASSUMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING. ..JEWELL.. 01/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 38379625 38279680 38999658 39669658 40499666 40999630 41739490 42109314 42309202 42529071 42508856 42098817 41898899 41599037 40509145 40009216 39439480 39309582 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 17:52:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 12:52:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501031753.j03HrvOs000368@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031753 MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-032300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA/FAR NERN MO...PORTIONS OF NRN IL/SRN WI AND CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 031753Z - 032300Z A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ERN IA/NERN MO...NRN IL AND FAR SRN WI THROUGH 21Z. FARTHER EAST...A MIX OF SLEET AND MODERATE/POSSIBLY HVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN MI FROM 20-00Z. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING WILL LIMIT SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION. HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES UP TO 0.15 IN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA/FAR NERN MO INTO FAR NRN IL THROUGH 20Z. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD INDICATIVE OF CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SLEET/ICE EVENT OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC ASCENT DUE TO COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AREA AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A REFLECTION OF THE STRONG MID/UPPER LIFT WITH A NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROUGH OVER WRN IL AT 17Z. THE SFC FREEZING LINE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT EXTENDING FROM NEAR IRK NEWD TO THE NRN CHICAGO SUBURBS. QUICK CESSATION OF VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD W-E AND AID IN RAPID DIMINISHMENT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MI DURING THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. THUS...DESPITE RECENT RISE OF TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT WILL AID IN HVY SNOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID LEVELS AND PRECIPITATION FALL/WET-BULB EFFECTS /CURRENT DEWPTS NEAR 30/...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO COOL THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR A 1-2 HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HVY SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-96 CORRIDOR DURING THE 20-00Z PERIOD. ..CROSBIE.. 01/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN... 43078794 42628953 42459049 42079120 41209162 40419183 39999162 40349075 41029027 41638952 42208793 42488581 42428370 42878294 43328325 43488481 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 18:24:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 13:24:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501031826.j03IQVXw018906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031825 CAZ000-032330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CST MON JAN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MTN OF SRN CA...SRN SIERRA NEVADA CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 031825Z - 032330Z HVY SNOW OVER SAN GABRIEL MTNS OF SRN CA ABOVE 4000 FT WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THROUGH 20Z...WITH HVY SNOW DIMINISHING OVER THE SAN GABRIEL AND SAN DIEGO CTY MTNS ABOVE 5000 FT BETWEEN 20-22Z. HRLY ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THESE TIMES. FARTHER NORTH...HVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE KERN COUNTY MTNS AND SRN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 00Z. HOURLY ACCUMULATION ON SOUTH FACING SLOPES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. DOUBLE BARRELED UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A LEAD TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN A WELL DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION AREA OVER SRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CA. STRONG CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HVY SNOWFALL OVER THE MTNS OF SRN CA THROUGH 20-22Z TIME. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH EVIDENT BY RECENT KVTX VWP DATA AND SAT TRENDS INDICATE THAT FOCUSED CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER INLAND OVER THE HIGH DESERT AND SRN SIERRA NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM AROUND 4000 FT IN THE NRN SAN GABRIEL MTNS TO AROUND 5000 FT IN THE MTNS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY SHOULD FALL SLIGHTLY AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE. FARTHER NORTH...AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE HIGH DESERT AND SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...EXPECT HVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SRN SIERRA NEVADA/KERN COUNTY MTNS ABOVE 4000 FT. DEEP/MODERATE SSELY FLOW WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO VERTICAL MOTION AND 2 IN/HR RATES ON S/SE FACING SLOPES. AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SLOWLY OFF THE CA COAST...THE SRN SIERRA NV IS LIKELY TO BE THE LOCATION OF A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. THUS...THERE EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED 1-2 IN/HR HVY SNOW EVENT WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 01/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX... 32891667 32861687 34081792 34491887 34711945 35041908 35581879 36361911 36881954 37201959 37561900 36721821 35521798 34911853 34371768 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 00:51:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 19:51:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501040053.j040qxQN025766@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040052 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040051 NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-040615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST MON JAN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL AND SW UT...NRN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 040051Z - 040615Z HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR AND OCCASIONAL 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN LIKELY FROM OVER AZ...GENERALLY ALONG THE RIM THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SW UT AND ALSO W AND SW NM. HEAVIEST SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY ABOVE 7000 FT...LOWERING TO 6000-6500 FT LATER TONIGHT FROM NW AZ INTO SWRN UT. AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CA COAST WILL CONTINUE SEWD TONIGHT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ARE EJECTING NEWD INTO THE SWRN STATES. ONE SUCH FEATURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SWRN AZ. DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW AND ADVECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NWD INTO PARTS OF AZ...NM AND UT. MOREOVER...THIS DEEP MOIST SLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SWD FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM W/SW NM THROUGH NRN AZ AND INTO SW UT. THE VERTICAL MOTION ACCOMPANYING THE NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVES IN THE PRESENCE OF MOIST OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EWD...COOLING ALOFT MAY ENHANCE LAPSE RATES AND LOWER SNOW ELEVATIONS FROM W TO E. SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW ENHANCEMENT MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. ..DIAL.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...SLC...VEF... 34321149 35431312 36661381 37831353 38911244 38931130 38331074 36971155 35841138 35061043 35020925 35590768 34700697 33480791 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 06:18:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 01:18:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501040620.j046KB2O001002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040619 OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-041215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO / WRN KS / EXTREME NWRN OK CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 040619Z - 041215Z FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z FROM FAR NWRN OK ACROSS SWRN KS INTO ERN CO. MAXIMUM HRLY RATES UP TO 0.05 IN EXPECTED. BROAD AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION BETWEEN 850-700 MB WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD FREEZING RAIN PROFILES WITH ONLY SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER AT THE SURFACE. CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AS OF 06Z OVER WRN OK / NW TX EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIFT NWD INTO FAR NWRN OK WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER ERN CO AND WRN KS. FORECAST RUC AND ETA SOUNDINGS SATURATE PROFILES BETWEEN 10-12 Z W OF A DDC-GLD LINE...BUT THIS MAY OCCUR SOONER ESPECIALLY FROM SERN CO INTO NWRN OK GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ..JEWELL.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU... 39290363 39730261 39610108 38750012 37789989 36619948 36530001 36660071 36820121 37050193 38020364 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 12:55:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 07:55:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501041257.j04Cv69h014869@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041255 KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-041800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NE / MUCH OF WRN AND SRN KS / NWRN OK / EXTREME NERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 041255Z - 041800Z WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATION WILL FALL OVER NWRN OK AND SOUTHERN KS...WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND 0.05 IN. FARTHER N...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE LIKELY INTO NWRN KS...CHANGING TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW OVER SWRN NEBRASKA. ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 850 FRONT WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...FROM THE TX PANHANDLE ENEWD ACROSS NRN OK AND INTO SERN KS / SWRN MO. 12Z DDC RAOB SHOWS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850-700 MB...WHICH WHEN WET-BULBED WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EVEN WHEN SATURATED. FARTHER S...AMA AND OUN RAOBS EXHIBIT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH HRLY PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 0.05 IN...OCCASIONAL HEAVY BURSTS OF 0.10-0.20 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED OVER NWRN OK AND FAR SRN KS. FARTHER N INTO NWRN KS AND SWRN NEBRASKA...SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE LIKELY...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.50-1.00 IN/HR. ..JEWELL.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...SGF...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA... 36530119 36220057 35910005 35799969 35799907 35919859 36399824 36789779 37259692 37419559 37689497 37849597 38099650 38529717 39119863 40439938 41299958 41630048 41380187 40980188 40050188 38330189 36730153 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 13:04:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 08:04:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501041306.j04D6icC018652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041305 KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-041800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NE / MUCH OF WRN AND SRN KS / NWRN OK / EXTREME NERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 041305Z - 041800Z WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATION WILL FALL OVER NWRN OK AND SOUTHERN KS...WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND 0.05 IN. FARTHER N...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE LIKELY INTO NWRN KS...CHANGING TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW OVER SWRN NEBRASKA. ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 850 FRONT WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...FROM THE TX PANHANDLE ENEWD ACROSS NRN OK AND INTO SERN KS / SWRN MO. 12Z DDC RAOB SHOWS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850-700 MB...WHICH WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EVEN WHEN SATURATED. FARTHER S...AMA AND OUN RAOBS EXHIBIT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH HRLY PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 0.05 IN...OCCASIONAL HEAVY BURSTS OF 0.10-0.20 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED OVER NWRN OK AND FAR SRN KS. FARTHER N INTO NWRN KS AND SWRN NEBRASKA...SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE LIKELY...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.50-1.00 IN/HR. ..JEWELL.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...SGF...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA... 36530119 36220057 35910005 35799969 35799907 35919859 36399824 36789779 37259692 37419559 37689497 37849597 38099650 38529717 39119863 40439938 41299958 41630048 41380187 40980188 40050188 38330189 36730153 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 18:02:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 13:02:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501041803.j04I3x8x023781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041802 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-042300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK...MUCH OF KS...NRN MO...SRN IA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 041802Z - 042300Z SIGNIFICANT ICING...WITH GLAZE AMOUNTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1/2 INCH IN A FEW HOURS...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A SWATH FROM NWRN OK/SRN KS...SPREADING ENEWD INTO ERN KS AND WRN/SWRN MO THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS BEING MAINTAINED WITHIN LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT WAS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD FROM DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS FUELING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ATOP SUBFREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE POCKETS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDE WITH STRONG INFLUX OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SCNTRL TX. ZONE OF ASCENT...AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET...ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD FROM SRN KS INTO WRN MO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CLASSIC MDT TO HVY FREEZING RAIN SOUNDINGS...SATURATED 850MB WARM NOSE AND BELOW 0C SFC WET BULB TEMPS...ARE FORECAST IN A BAND FROM ICT TO MCI TO IRK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF UP TO 0.25 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED NEAR CONVECTION LATE THIS MORNING OVER NWRN/NRN OK AND SRN KS. EXPECT THIS HEAVY ICING TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD GRADUALLY ENEWD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH TREACHEROUS TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES RESULTING WITHIN THE CORE OF HEAVIEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS. A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF THE FREEZING RAIN AXIS...FROM CNTRL KS INTO NRN MO AND WRN IA THROUGH 00Z. ..CARBIN.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37099769 36759884 36490021 36560089 36880139 37090146 37530132 37930032 38489921 38759852 39009800 39289738 40539484 41049305 40829126 40289133 39219251 37749517 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 18:03:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 13:03:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501041805.j04I5eYr025022@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041804 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NRN AND ERN NEB...WRN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 041804Z - 050000Z FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW IN AN EXTENDED WINTER STORM EVENT WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF NERN NEB...SERN SD...AND WRN IA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL LOCALLY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER CA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER FROM THE ROCKIES EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ROTATING OUT OF STRONG WRN TROUGH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT IN A WEST-EAST SWATH ACROSS NEB/SD. THIS LIFT MAY TEND TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EWD TOWARD DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE. NONETHELESS... HEAVY SNOW...POSSIBLY OCCURRING IN ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE BANDS... WILL OCCUR WHERE STRONGEST SLOPED ASCENT WITHIN MID/UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION COINCIDES WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP SATURATED AIRMASS WITH ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN THE -12C TO -17C RANGE WILL EXIST ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN VERY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS MAY RESULT IN GREATER SNOWFALL RATES DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. SLEET/ICE PELLETS MAY INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NEB AND WRN IA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...COOLING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IN THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HEAVIER SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MO RIVER AND INTO WRN/SWRN IA AFTER 20Z. ..CARBIN.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 40639580 40559712 40639845 40910022 41640101 42680135 43420063 43539914 43249732 42779540 42559466 42179408 41419395 41019477 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 18:04:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 13:04:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501041806.j04I6gJZ025540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041802 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-042300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK...MUCH OF KS...NRN MO...SRN IA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 041802Z - 042300Z SIGNIFICANT ICING...WITH GLAZE AMOUNTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1/2 INCH IN A FEW HOURS...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A SWATH FROM NWRN OK/SRN KS...SPREADING ENEWD INTO ERN KS AND WRN/SWRN MO THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS BEING MAINTAINED WITHIN LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT WAS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD FROM DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS FUELING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ATOP SUBFREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE POCKETS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDE WITH STRONG INFLUX OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SCNTRL TX. ZONE OF ASCENT...AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET...ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD FROM SRN KS INTO WRN MO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CLASSIC MDT TO HVY FREEZING RAIN SOUNDINGS...SATURATED 850MB WARM NOSE AND BELOW 0C SFC WET BULB TEMPS...ARE FORECAST IN A BAND FROM ICT TO MCI TO IRK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF UP TO 0.25 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED NEAR CONVECTION LATE THIS MORNING OVER NWRN/NRN OK AND SRN KS. EXPECT THIS HEAVY ICING TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD GRADUALLY ENEWD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH TREACHEROUS TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES RESULTING WITHIN THE CORE OF HEAVIEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS. A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF THE FREEZING RAIN AXIS...FROM CNTRL KS INTO NRN MO AND WRN IA THROUGH 00Z. ..CARBIN.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37099769 36759884 36490021 36560089 36880139 37090146 37530132 37930032 38489921 38759852 39009800 39289738 40539484 41049305 40829126 40289133 39219251 37749517  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 18:06:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 13:06:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501041808.j04I8IqW026913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041804 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NRN AND ERN NEB...WRN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 041804Z - 050000Z FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW IN AN EXTENDED WINTER STORM EVENT WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF NERN NEB...SERN SD...AND WRN IA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL LOCALLY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER CA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER FROM THE ROCKIES EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ROTATING OUT OF STRONG WRN TROUGH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT IN A WEST-EAST SWATH ACROSS NEB/SD. THIS LIFT MAY TEND TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EWD TOWARD DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE. NONETHELESS... HEAVY SNOW...POSSIBLY OCCURRING IN ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE BANDS... WILL OCCUR WHERE STRONGEST SLOPED ASCENT WITHIN MID/UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION COINCIDES WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP SATURATED AIRMASS WITH ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN THE -12C TO -17C RANGE WILL EXIST ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN VERY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS MAY RESULT IN GREATER SNOWFALL RATES DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. SLEET/ICE PELLETS MAY INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NEB AND WRN IA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...COOLING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IN THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HEAVIER SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MO RIVER AND INTO WRN/SWRN IA AFTER 20Z. ..CARBIN.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 40639580 40559712 40639845 40910022 41640101 42680135 43420063 43539914 43249732 42779540 42559466 42179408 41419395 41019477  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 23:48:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 18:48:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501042350.j04No0vn018540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042348 TXZ000-NMZ000-050145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH PARTS OF W TX INTO EXTREME ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042348Z - 050145Z THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF W TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY ERN NM THIS EVENING. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW. EARLY THIS EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM PARTS OF SERN OK SWWD THROUGH W TX TO THE N OF BIG SPRINGS AND MIDLAND. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF AND N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD TOWARD W TX AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT NEAR AND N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER W TX THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SUCH THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT N OF THE BOUNDARY AND BECOME ELEVATED SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION. SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND MODEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..DIAL.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 32150118 32560288 33710360 34930272 35180142 34200000 32799952 32230011 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 01:01:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 20:01:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501050103.j0513Kr3019705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050102 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-050700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NW MO...SE IA...NRN IL...SRN WI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 050102Z - 050700Z FREEZING RAIN WITH ACCUMULATION RATES OF UP TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH IN ONE HOUR AND MODERATE SNOW WITH RATES APPROACHING ONE INCH AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE THREAT AREA THROUGH 06Z. PREDOMINANTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF AN AXIS FROM 25MI NW TOP TO LWD TO 30MI N OF MLI AND 10MI S OF RFD. INITIAL 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR TOP WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD AT 25KT AND CONTRIBUTE TO NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF AN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. STRONG WARM ADVECTION LAYER BETWEEN 1KM AND 3KM IS EVIDENT IN 00Z ETH WIND PROFILER OBSERVATION WITHIN THE MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AREA . REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR AND ADIABATIC COOING WITH STRONGER ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE THREAT AREA CONTRIBUTING TO A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO MODERATE SNOWFALL. WARM LAYER CURRENTLY SUPPORTING MODERATE FREEZING RAIN IS EVIDENT IN WARM ADVECTION LAYER NEAR 850MB IN 00Z TOP SOUNDING. A SHALLOW WARM LAYER IS ALSO EVIDENT IN DVN SOUNDING NEAR 800MB WHERE STRONGER ASCENT AND REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW. SOUTHERN EDGE OF SURFACE FREEZING LINE AND WET BULB ZERO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH 06Z WITHIN A STEADY NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND FIELD. EXPECT WARM LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPERATURE TO LIMIT FROZEN ACCUMULATIONS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST IL. MODELS AGREE WITH A MINORING OUT OF THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE AS IT ENTERS THE CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TRAILING SHORTWAVES LOCATED NEAR PUB AND TUS. ..SCHNEIDER.. 01/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 42268811 41868851 41318983 40709138 39669349 38719526 38979598 40229565 41319500 42019369 42319195 42639052 42788920 42838809 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 01:13:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 20:13:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501050115.j051FDT0025273@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050112 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050111 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-050615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...NW OK...SWRN THROUGH E CNTRL KS CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 050111Z - 050615Z PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM PARTS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES NEWD THROUGH NW OK INTO SRN AND CNTRL KS. FREEZING RAIN RATES FROM .05 TO .1 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY. LOCALLY HIGHER RATES FROM .15 TO .2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR...GENERALLY AOB 1000 M DEEP...REMAINS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL/S KS AND SWD INTO OK AND NW TX WITH THE FREEZING LINE FROM NERN KS SWWD THROUGH NW OK INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER...PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ALONG A 30-40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE...AND THIS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS. A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS KS AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MIGRATES TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER KS WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SWD MOVING ARCTIC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SW THROUGH NE KS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD THROUGH W TX. THE PERSISTENT STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL COMBINE TO ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION AND PRECIPITATION RATES/COVERAGE FROM THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES NEWD INTO SRN AND CNTRL KS. A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW MAY OCCUR FROM PARTS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES THROUGH SW AND CNTRL KS LATER TONIGHT. ..DIAL.. 01/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB... 37889565 36469882 35680182 36090277 36960245 38140033 38979790 39159610  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 06:01:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 01:01:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501050603.j05634j2028618@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050602 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050601 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-051030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE/NW OK/SRN AND ERN KS/WRN AND NRN MO/SE IA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 050601Z - 051030Z WINTER STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CORRIDOR FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE/NW OK INTO WRN AND NRN MO/SE IA OVERNIGHT. HOURLY FZRA/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05-0.10 IN WILL BE COMMON...WITH 0.20-0.25 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WV/IR IMAGERY AND PROFILER NETWORK DEPICTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK ADVANCING EWD ACROSS ERN NM/FAR NW TX...WHILE INTENSE SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXISTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG WARM LAYER AROUND 800-850 MB -- AS EVIDENT IN 00Z AMA/OUN/TOP/SGF RAOBS -- ABOVE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROAD CORRIDOR OF FZRA/SLEET OVERNIGHT FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE/NW OK INTO WRN/NRN MO AND SE IA. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES OVERNIGHT...AS FURTHER EVIDENCE BY CELLULAR CONVECTION/SCT CG LIGHTNING SPREADING NEWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE/NW OK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ACROSS WCNTRL/NE KS...DEEPENING COLD AIR OWING TO SWD OOZING ARCTIC FRONT SUGGESTS SNOW WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT ALONG/NW OF A P28-TOP AXIS TOWARD 12Z. ..GUYER.. 01/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 41039308 41099127 39639141 39349199 38669308 37629475 36839613 35939750 35329894 35240005 35590073 36840081 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 12:50:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 07:50:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501051252.j05CqNIv018480@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051251 PAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-051715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IL AND NRN IN/NRN OH INTO NW PA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 051251Z - 051715Z CORRIDOR OF FZRA/SLEET TO EXPAND/INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM NRN/CNTRL IL AND NRN IN INTO NRN OH/NW PA...WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10 IN POSSIBLE. BROAD WARM CONVEYOR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME CONTINUES TO ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS IL/IN/OH. AS BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING AND PRECIP RATES INCREASE...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF FZRA AND/OR SLEET FROM NRN/CNTRL IL AND NRN IN INTO NRN OH/NW PA. 12Z ILX/PIT RAOBS DEPICT +4C WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND 1.5 KM/825 MB...INDICATIVE OF FZRA POTENTIAL IN AREAS WHERE SHALLOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER IS AND/OR BECOMES SUB-FREEZING. PER 06Z ETA/09Z RUC GUIDANCE...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION OF THERMAL FIELDS THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT FZRA AND/OR SLEET FROM NRN/CNTRL IL INTO NW PA THROUGH 18Z. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR CONSIDERABLE ICE ACCUMULATION...ROUGHLY 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A PIA-FWA-FDY-FKL AXIS. ..GUYER.. 01/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41797971 41377918 40837964 40548294 39998610 39968822 39968999 41119035 41738938 41848823 41498741 41648470 41318226 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 13:14:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 08:14:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501051316.j05DGhVg023221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051315 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-051745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/ERN KS/NRN MO AND NW/WCNTRL IL CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 051315Z - 051745Z SIGNIFICANT FZRA/SLEET TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN SW-NE ORIENTED CORRIDOR FROM NRN OK/ERN KS INTO NRN MO AND NW/WCNTRL IL. HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10 IN WILL BE COMMON...WITH 0.20-0.25 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE WITHIN EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. LATEST WV IMAGERY/SRN PLAINS PROFILERS PORTRAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ADVANCING ENEWD FROM NM INTO NW TX...WITH IR IMAGERY DEPICTING COOLING CLOUD TOPS FROM FAR ERN KS INTO IL EARLY THIS MORNING. AMIDST STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WARM AIR CONTINUES TO OVERRIDE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS -- APPROX DEPTH OF 1-1.5 KM OR LESS FROM NRN OK INTO NW IL PER REGIONAL WIND PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS/12Z RAOBS. 09Z RUC/06Z ETA PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THROUGH THE MORNING...SUGGESTING FZRA/SLEET WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT IN A 150 MILE CORRIDOR FROM NRN OK INTO NRN MO/NW IL THROUGH 18Z. IN ADDITION TO STRONG BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION...WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PER REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN/NRN OK. ..GUYER.. 01/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 40759145 41059031 39729005 39249173 38619279 37459407 36739550 35339807 35939881 36919838 39709494 40479283 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 17:48:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 12:48:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501051750.j05Ho75l017253@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051744 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051744 IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-052345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN KS...SERN NEB...IA...NWRN MO CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 051744Z - 052345Z SNOW...OCCASIONALLY FALLING AT RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN A BROAD ARC FROM EXTREME NWRN KS ACROSS MUCH OF IA. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF MDT TO HVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM CNTRL TO NERN KS...EXPANDING INTO NWRN MO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC MID/UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY. WV IMAGERY AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA INDICATED THE STRONG TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD WITH ONE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN IA AND ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING NEWD FROM WRN KS. WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH EJECTING PIECEMEAL FROM THE ROCKIES...SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS APPEARS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM ERN CO NEWD TO NWRN IA. VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW MOVING NEWD FROM NWRN KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE UPWARD MOTION ALONG THIS AXIS AS DPVA DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN KS AND SRN NEB NEXT FEW HOURS. MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BANDS ACROSS IA HAVE BEEN INTENSIFYING AHEAD OF ANOTHER VORT LOBE MOVING EAST FROM ERN NEB. EXPECT MORE FAVORABLE SLOPED ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF POLAR JET TO GRADUALLY WANE ACROSS THIS REGION NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER LIFT MOVES NEWD ACROSS IA FROM KS/NEB IMPULSE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS OF MDT TO HVY SNOW WITH STRONG ASCENT OCCURRING WITHIN SATURATED MID LEVEL AIRMASS WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE. A SMALLER SCALE DEFORMATION ZONE...PERHAPS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO THE PRIMARY COMMA-HEAD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING CYCLONE...APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE FROM CNTRL TO NERN KS AT THIS TIME. INCREASING MESOSCALE ASCENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. COUPLED WITH DRAMATIC ADIABATIC COOLING AND PROXIMITY OF GREATER MOISTURE WITHIN LARGE SCALE WARM CONVEYOR BELT...AN EXPANDING AREA OF HEAVY SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN AND NERN KS...AND PERHAPS INTO WRN MO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWBURSTS WITHIN THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 06/00Z. ..CARBIN.. 01/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 38619821 38399872 38169961 38620104 39730196 41080050 42639731 43399484 43589379 43279216 42339130 40619280 40159331 39439398 37979523 37879588 38149616 38499657 38749678 38959720 38829775 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 17:58:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 12:58:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501051759.j05Hxqiu023872@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051757 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-060000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IL/IND/OH POSSIBLY INTO PA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 051757Z - 060000Z CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL IND/OH...AND POSSIBLY INTO PA. HOURLY RATES OF .05 TO .10 INCH/HOUR WILL BE COMMON WILL LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING .15 TO .20 INCH/HOUR. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRANSLATES ENEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...ATTENDANT SURFACE/850 MB LOWS WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING DOWNSTREAM BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG/JUST N OF THE OH RIVER. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT WAA ALONG NOSE OF 40-50 KT WSWLY LLJ AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD N OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SYNTHESIS OF CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST FROM NEAR CMI EWD TO MIE TO MFD WHERE .05 TO .10 INCH PER HOUR RATES WILL BE COMMON. SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SNOW...WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF IND/OH. DIRECT MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS ARISING FROM THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NARROW W-E ORIENTED PRECIPITATION BANDS WHERE HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES MAY APPROACH .15-.20 INCH/HOUR. ..MEAD.. 01/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 40438899 41198876 41828533 41938252 41787975 41487712 40737722 40418167 40008825 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 00:11:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 19:11:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501060013.j060DINo018705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060011 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 PM CST WED JAN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 060011Z - 060615Z A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A BAND ACROSS SE NEB...SRN IA...FAR NRN MO...NRN IL AND FAR SRN WI. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NERN NEB EXTENDING ENEWD TO SCNTRL WI AND FROM NCNTRL MO TO NCNTRL IL. AN UPPER-LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS WRN MO. THE JET IS CAUSING STRONG AND WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BACKED TO THE EAST FROM SE NEB EXTENDING ENE ACROSS SRN IA INTO NRN IL. THIS COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPS OF -15C TO -20 C AND SFC TEMPS THE TEENS AND 20S F WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS ZONE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY REACHING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS A DEFORMATION ZONE CURRENTLY ACROSS NE KS MOVES SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NRN MO THIS EVENING. THE SERN EXTENT OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL JET...EXTENDING NEWD FROM CNTRL MO ACROSS CNTRL IL TO SWRN LOWER MI. A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR. THE AMOUNT OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT GRADUALLY DROPS OFF ACROSS NE NEB ...NRN IA INTO SCNTRL WI. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO THE WEAKENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THIS REGION. STILL...SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE WITH SNOWFALL RATES DECREASING ACROSS NE NEB AND NWRN IA LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. ..BROYLES.. 01/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD... 43919082 43398695 43128632 42598608 42178629 41478714 40878869 39389167 38669328 38719435 38969453 39589497 39919560 40069662 39719769 39459865 39409917 39829965 40499964 41829877 43149701 43959312 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 00:47:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 19:47:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501060049.j060nBpr001681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060047 PAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-060645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST WED JAN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IN...NRN OH...NW PA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 060047Z - 060645Z FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GLAZE RATES OF UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR OVER THE THREAT AREA. STRONG WARM TEMPERATURE ADVECTION NORTH OF THE 850MB WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE NOSE OF A SWLY LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SWLY WINDS OF 50KT IN THE LVX VWP AT 00Z CAPTURE THE CORE OF THE LLJ MAXIMUM WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECT TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONTRIBUTES TO ANOTHER HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION SURGE AFTER 07Z. THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD WITH A DEEP WARM LAYER EVIDENT IN 800MB TO 650MB ILN AND DTX SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH 00Z DTX LAYER IS SUB FREEZING...THE EAST WEST 700MB CONFLUENCE AXIS IS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRANSITION ZONE WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. ..SCHNEIDER.. 01/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX... 41088495 41468408 41798308 41798193 41768057 41607957 41637867 41567816 41067797 40967894 40967998 40808158 40658352 40458552 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 05:56:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 00:56:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501060558.j065wT5f012681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060557 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060557 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-061200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST WED JAN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MIDWEST...OH VALLEY...GREAT LAKES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 060557Z - 061200Z BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES FROM ERN IA ENEWD TO LOWER MI. UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NRN IA ACROSS CNTRL WI AND NCNTRL IL TO NW OH. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR SW IA AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NEWD OVERNIGHT REACHING SRN WI BY DAYBREAK. A MID-LEVEL JET OF 100 KT IS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MO TO NW OH. THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET IS PROVIDING STRONG AND WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM NRN IND EXTENDING WNWWD ACROSS NRN IL INTO IA. HEAVY SNOWBANDS ARE LOCATED ABOUT 150 TO 200 STATUTE MILES NORTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. IN ADDITION...A LOW-LEVEL JET IS ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST FROM SRN LOWER MI TO SRN WI AND IS PROVIDING STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS NEWD OVERNIGHT...SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL SPREAD ACROSS ERN IA...NRN IL..SRN WI AND INTO CNTRL LOWER MI. SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR OVER SRN MN...SCNTRL WI AND NRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE BRIEF DUE TO DECREASING FLOW AND WEAKER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. DUE TO TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS CNTRL IL...NRN IND AND NW OH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 09Z TO 12Z ACROSS THIS ZONE AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL. ..BROYLES.. 01/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... 44139303 44858515 44308360 43108298 41848311 40638419 39828774 40188995 40869174 40689360 40469581 42749599 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 06:00:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 01:00:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501060602.j0662FVl013640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060601 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060600 NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-061100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL PA AND SRN NY/NRN NJ INTO WRN CT/WRN NH CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 060600Z - 061100Z FZRA/SLEET EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PA INTO EXTREME SRN NY OVERNIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OWING TO HOURLY RATES OF 0.05-0.10 IN. FURTHER NORTH...SLEET TO DEVELOP FROM SCNTRL NY EWD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY...WHILE SNOW REMAINS PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF CNTRL NY. WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 00Z DIAGNOSTICS PORTRAY WARM CONVEYOR CONTINUING TO SURGE NEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY 800-850 MB WARM LAYER -- AS EVIDENT IN 00Z PIT RAOB -- WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. AT 06Z...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NRN PA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80...IN ADDITION TO APPALACHIAN REGION OF CNTRL PA. AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR INCREASES ABOVE THIS SHALLOW /1 KM OR LESS PER ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN WSR-88D VADS/ COLD BOUNDARY LAYER...FZRA/SLEET EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PA INTO FAR SRN NY. IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...21Z SREF/03Z RUC PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO WITH DEPICTION THAT FZRA AND/OR SLEET WILL EXPAND NNEWD ACROSS NRN PA INTO FAR SE NY/NRN NJ THROUGH 12Z. ..GUYER.. 01/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... 42667447 42287285 41157301 40597342 40507565 40667689 40847876 41387951 42247957 42797869 42867626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 13:01:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 08:01:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501061302.j06D2rxb001534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061301 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-061800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE PA/NRN NJ AND CNTRL/ERN NY INTO SRN NH/SRN VT AND MA/CT/RI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 061301Z - 061800Z FZRA/SLEET EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS NCNTRL/NE PA AND SRN NY/NRN NJ INTO CT...WITH 0.05-0.10 IN/HR RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE GLAZE. SNOW EXPECTED TO YIELD TO FZRA/SLEET ACROSS MA/CNTRL NY THROUGH 18Z. WV/IR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS ATTENDANT 1002 MB SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS SE OH. AHEAD OF THIS CYCLONE...WARM CONVEYOR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WITH PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SRN NY/NRN PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. AS STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/UVVS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR CONTINUES TO OVERRIDE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FZRA AND/OR SLEET ACROSS NCNTRL/NE PA AND SRN NY/NRN NJ/CT THROUGH 18Z. FURTHER N/E...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN ACCORDANCE WITH 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS/PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST SNOW ACROSS CNTRL NY INTO MA WILL PROGRESSIVELY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN PRIOR TO 18Z AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER LEADS TO PARTIAL/COMPLETE MELTING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIGHT/MDT SNOW FROM NE NY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SRN VT/SRN NH...AS EVIDENT IN COLD PROFILE SEEN IN 12Z ALB RAOB. OTHERWISE... PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH/CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/DZ ACROSS SW NY/NCNTRL PA BY 18Z AS LOW LEVEL PROFILES WARM/DRY SLOT APPROACHES. ..GUYER.. 01/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 43957389 43097139 42717082 41797089 41537183 40967430 41337625 41537756 42257801 43517776 44257614 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 13:09:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 08:09:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501061311.j06DBhcv005784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061310 MIZ000-061745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 061310Z - 061745Z MDT/OCNLY HVY SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL LOWER MI THIS MORNING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION. ON NRN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE NEARING SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...WSR-88D VOLUMETRIC DATA/SFC OBSERVATIONS DEPICT DEFORMATION AXIS WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF MDT/PERIODICALLY HVY SNOW TRANSITIONING FROM ERN WI INTO LOWER MI. AS THIS EWD TREND CONTINUES...12Z APX RAOB/09Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER FOR SNOW GROWTH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLANDS/SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB REGION OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 15Z-18Z. FURTHERMORE...RUC BASED CROSS SECTIONS INDICATIVE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY PER NEGATIVE DTHETA-E/DZ IN 500-700 MB LAYER ACROSS CNTRL MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. COMBINED WITH 15:1 OR GREATER SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIOS...SNOW RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION THIS MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE 18Z AS CYCLONE/ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION BAND MOVES NEWD INTO SRN ONTARIO. ..GUYER.. 01/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45288348 44678345 44378363 44078347 43868320 43378396 43218482 43388621 43888649 44758613 45338516 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 17:31:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 12:31:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501061733.j06HXGIk024805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061731 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-062300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY...NRN VT...NH...ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 061731Z - 062300Z MDT TO OCNL HVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND PARTS OF NERN NY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WHILE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD MAKE STEADY NEWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CORE OF THE BAND COULD EXPERIENCE SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR FOR UP TO 3 HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR FOR A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND. HOWEVER...WARMER MID LEVEL AIRMASS INFILTRATING PARTS OF ERN NY AND SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND MAY RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DEPARTS SWRN SECTIONS OF THIS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION AREA...SEE UPCOMING MCD 0039 FOR MORE INFO ON MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION. PROGRESSIVE CYCLONE OF MODEST INTENSITY WILL DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER JET COUPLING MOVING FROM WRN NEW YORK TO NRN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE ZONE OF STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP SURFACE-BASED COLD DOME. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WITH BUF AND PIT MORNING RAOBS INDICATING PW VALUES AROUND 1 INCH. MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND LIFT WILL INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH THROUGH VAPOR DEPOSITION AND AGGREGATION WITH HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING IN A NW-SE ARC FROM NERN NY ACROSS NRN/CNTRL VT TO NH. THIS BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD TRANSITION ENEWD ACROSS NH AND MAINE THROUGH EVENING AS STRONGEST FORCING DEVELOPS ENEWD. GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONGEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WAS BEING INDICATED IN ETA POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN NY AND MUCH OF VT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET...OR EVEN A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET...ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION BEFORE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES THESE AREAS DURING THE EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 01/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... 44226905 43467080 44187201 44657317 44587362 44217376 44087407 44177443 44357471 44487482 44727497 44907503 45137467 45177386 45247237 45587096 46317017 46336876 45856779 45026755 44646744 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 17:38:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 12:38:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501061740.j06He92o029588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061739 MAZ000-MEZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-062345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO SRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 061739Z - 062345Z A NWD SHIFT OF FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH 0.15-0.25 INCH/HOUR AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AS OF 17Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER ERN LAKE ERIE WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WRN PA INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION. FARTHER NE...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK/NOVA SCOTIA IS MAINTAINING FEED OF COLDER...DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NE WITH 17Z FREEZING WET BULB ZERO /WBZ/ LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY 20 NE IPT TO 30 N JFK TO NEAR EWB. CURRENT VWPS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS N OF THIS LINE INDICATE THAT 35-45 KT SWLY LLJ AT 1-1.5 KM AGL IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL FORCING VIA WAA WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING OVER SRN NY INTO WRN CT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THIS FREEZING RAIN CORRIDOR EXTENDS ROUGHLY 60-90 N OF WBZ LINE...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO SLEET NEAR ALB...AND FINALLY SNOW FROM GFL EWD ACROSS NRN MA INTO SRN PORTIONS OF VT/NH. PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL ALLOW FOR NWD MOVEMENT OF WBZ LINE APPROXIMATELY 50-60 MILES BY 21-22Z...WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING OVER ERN NY GENERALLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR ALB SWD TO POU AND THEN EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL MA WHERE HOURLY LIQUID AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 0.10-0.20 INCH. EXPECT A NARROW SWATH OF SLEET N OF THIS AREA...PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING INTO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NERN NY INTO NRN VT/NH. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS ANTICIPATED HEAVIER SNOW...PLEASE SEE MCD 0038. ..MEAD.. 01/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF... 41917001 41387157 41087386 41647556 42087672 42847708 43847519 43957348 43257011 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 13:00:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 08:00:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501071302.j07D2cQ7006512@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071301 CAZ000-NVZ000-071800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SIERRAS/SISKIYOUS/KLAMATH MTNS OF CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 071301Z - 071800Z HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SIERRAS/SISKIYOUS/KLAMATH MTNS OF NRN/CNTRL CA THIS MORNING. WHILE 1.5-2.0 IN/HR RATES WILL BE COMMON...RELATIVELY HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN SIERRAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 2.0-4.0 IN/HR POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000 FT LEVEL. WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING PORTRAYS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST NEAR 35N/125W...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS/MOIST PLUME EXPANDING EWD THROUGH CNTRL CA. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG DYNAMIC ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CA THIS MORNING...WITH QUICK ONSET OF HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM THE SISKIYOUS/KLAMATH MTNS INTO THE SRN SIERRAS. CONSISTENT WITH 12Z OAK RAOB...09Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SWLY WINDS IN 1.5-4.0 KM LAYER INCREASING TO 40-65 KTS BY MID/LATE MORNING...WITH CORRESPONDING OROGRAPHIC LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UVVS. MESONET OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICT FREEZING LEVELS RANGING FROM AROUND 3000-3500 FT ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF CA TO 4500-5000 FT ACROSS THE SRN SIERRAS. 12Z OAK RAOB FEATURES MOIST PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.8 IN...INDICATIVE OF DEEP MOISTURE/DENDRITIC PROFILES WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CA THROUGH AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 01/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...MFR...STO...EKA... 40572199 40732240 40342275 39912257 39842268 39782316 40142322 40732349 41482325 41622268 41472223 40502088 39052000 37711872 36291782 35931757 35591790 35711845 36821915 37812015 38952056 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 18:25:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 13:25:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501071827.j07IR3JT006093@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071825 CAZ000-NVZ000-072230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0041 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MTNS OF CA...AND ELEVATIONS DOWN TO 1000 FT IN NRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 071825Z - 072230Z HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE SIERRA MTNS...THE COASTAL RANGES OF SRN CA...AND THE MT SHASTA REGION. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 1000 FT ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL CA BY 00Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM 2500-4000 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT 18Z...PARENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE WA COAST. WELL-DEFINED VORT CENTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE PARENT TROUGH...AND IS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ENEWD AT 30-35KT REACHING FAR WRN NV BY 08/00Z. DEEP-LAYER PVA COMBINED WITH SWLY WINDS OF 60-80KT BETWEEN 2-4KM WILL LEAD TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG MUCH OF THE SIERRA MTNS DURING THE NEXT 6 HRS. RUC 3-HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS EXCEED 0.5" ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION BETWEEN 18-21Z...AND AGAIN BETWEEN 21-00Z. CONDITIONS SUGGEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3"/HR...ESPECIALLY ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WRN SLOPES. ACROSS FAR NRN CA...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 21-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COLD POOL CURRENTLY OFFSHORE ROTATES EWD. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 1-2 KFT BY 08/00Z ACROSS THE FAR NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THE 12Z ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT RDD AROUND 23Z. FAR SRN PORTION OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND IS AFFECTING THE COASTAL MTNS OF SRN CA AT 18Z. OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN LOCAL HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 2500 FT. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN THE COASTAL BASIN AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SNOW MAY LEAD BRIEFLY TO 1-2"/HR RATES THROUGH 22Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ..BANACOS.. 01/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...MFR...STO...EKA...LOX...SGX... 40022255 39662250 39362252 39212271 39402305 39802338 40492374 41022379 41522356 41802315 41942250 41862169 41472121 40792077 39501999 38271899 37501849 36501801 35681807 35681860 36281879 37091929 37882005 38712066 39412109 40252157 40632184 40662216 40552247 40312261 34951894 34951932 34881965 34741962 34621944 34551910 34531887 34611881 34831876 34521766 34521798 34471834 34341831 34221813 34181780 34181763 34231745 34431745 34431662 34431694 34381730 34251727 34121709 34091676 34091659 34141641 34341641 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 18:28:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 13:28:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501071830.j07IU0L7008433@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071827 ILZ000-MOZ000-072330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0042 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL/ERN MO...WRN IL CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 071827Z - 072330Z MODERATE SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF MO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED BY WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THESE LIMITATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE EARLY EVENING TO SUPPORT A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET...FROM CNTRL MO INTO WRN IL. A FAST MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM TX/OK AND ACROSS MO THROUGH 08/00Z. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND MOISTENING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE AND SHOULD OVERCOME INITIAL LIMITATIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. 12Z ETA/RUC...AND LATEST 15Z RUC...SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RELATIVELY QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN A SW-TO-NE CORRIDOR ACROSS MO. BY EVENING...SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO PARTS OF IL. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS LEND SUPPORT TO THE ETA/RUC FCSTS WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING INDICATED WITHIN INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC LEAF FROM ERN OK INTO WRN MO. CLEAR-AIR MODE RADAR RETURNS ARE ALSO EXPANDING/INCREASING ALONG THE SERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC LEAF WHERE MID LEVEL ASCENT IS LIKELY STRENGTHENING. ADDITIONALLY...VORT MAX/IPV INTRUSION APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING WITH PRONOUNCED DARKENING NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER NWRN TX. AS THIS STRENGTHENING IMPULSE LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS MO THROUGH LATE TODAY...STRONG ASCENT AND ADIABATIC COOLING WILL ACT ON ELEVATED GULF COAST MOISTURE RETURN TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE SNOW. RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT DURATION OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF MO SHOULD BE SHORT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM ERN MO...ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO IL BEYOND 08/00Z. ..CARBIN.. 01/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38009146 37719224 37509298 37119380 37139440 37599452 37909424 38169382 38379337 38919260 39379174 39619093 39279025 38599026 38289076 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 18:29:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 13:29:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501071831.j07IVOW1009255@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071825 CAZ000-NVZ000-072230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0041 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MTNS OF CA...AND ELEVATIONS DOWN TO 1000 FT IN NRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 071825Z - 072230Z HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE SIERRA MTNS...THE COASTAL RANGES OF SRN CA...AND THE MT SHASTA REGION. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 1000 FT ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL CA BY 00Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM 2500-4000 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT 18Z...PARENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE WA COAST. WELL-DEFINED VORT CENTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE PARENT TROUGH...AND IS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ENEWD AT 30-35KT REACHING FAR WRN NV BY 08/00Z. DEEP-LAYER PVA COMBINED WITH SWLY WINDS OF 60-80KT BETWEEN 2-4KM WILL LEAD TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG MUCH OF THE SIERRA MTNS DURING THE NEXT 6 HRS. RUC 3-HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS EXCEED 0.5" ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION BETWEEN 18-21Z...AND AGAIN BETWEEN 21-00Z. CONDITIONS SUGGEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3"/HR...ESPECIALLY ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WRN SLOPES. ACROSS FAR NRN CA...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 21-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COLD POOL CURRENTLY OFFSHORE ROTATES EWD. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 1-2 KFT BY 08/00Z ACROSS THE FAR NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THE 12Z ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT RDD AROUND 23Z. FAR SRN PORTION OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND IS AFFECTING THE COASTAL MTNS OF SRN CA AT 18Z. OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN LOCAL HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 2500 FT. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN THE COASTAL BASIN AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SNOW MAY LEAD BRIEFLY TO 1-2"/HR RATES THROUGH 22Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ..BANACOS.. 01/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...MFR...STO...EKA...LOX...SGX... 40022255 39662250 39362252 39212271 39402305 39802338 40492374 41022379 41522356 41802315 41942250 41862169 41472121 40792077 39501999 38271899 37501849 36501801 35681807 35681860 36281879 37091929 37882005 38712066 39412109 40252157 40632184 40662216 40552247 40312261 34951894 34951932 34881965 34741962 34621944 34551910 34531887 34611881 34831876 34521766 34521798 34471834 34341831 34221813 34181780 34181763 34231745 34431745 34431662 34431694 34381730 34251727 34121709 34091676 34091659 34141641 34341641  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 18:29:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 13:29:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501071831.j07IVfM2009405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071827 ILZ000-MOZ000-072330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0042 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL/ERN MO...WRN IL CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 071827Z - 072330Z MODERATE SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF MO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED BY WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THESE LIMITATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE EARLY EVENING TO SUPPORT A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET...FROM CNTRL MO INTO WRN IL. A FAST MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM TX/OK AND ACROSS MO THROUGH 08/00Z. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND MOISTENING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE AND SHOULD OVERCOME INITIAL LIMITATIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. 12Z ETA/RUC...AND LATEST 15Z RUC...SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RELATIVELY QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN A SW-TO-NE CORRIDOR ACROSS MO. BY EVENING...SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO PARTS OF IL. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS LEND SUPPORT TO THE ETA/RUC FCSTS WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING INDICATED WITHIN INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC LEAF FROM ERN OK INTO WRN MO. CLEAR-AIR MODE RADAR RETURNS ARE ALSO EXPANDING/INCREASING ALONG THE SERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC LEAF WHERE MID LEVEL ASCENT IS LIKELY STRENGTHENING. ADDITIONALLY...VORT MAX/IPV INTRUSION APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING WITH PRONOUNCED DARKENING NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER NWRN TX. AS THIS STRENGTHENING IMPULSE LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS MO THROUGH LATE TODAY...STRONG ASCENT AND ADIABATIC COOLING WILL ACT ON ELEVATED GULF COAST MOISTURE RETURN TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE SNOW. RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT DURATION OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF MO SHOULD BE SHORT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM ERN MO...ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO IL BEYOND 08/00Z. ..CARBIN.. 01/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38009146 37719224 37509298 37119380 37139440 37599452 37909424 38169382 38379337 38919260 39379174 39619093 39279025 38599026 38289076  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 00:28:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 19:28:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501080029.j080TiDD030958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080028 PAZ000-080430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 080028Z - 080430Z A MIX OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PA FROM SW-NE TOWARD 08/06Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.1 IN/HR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. AT 08/00Z...A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXISTED OVER CENTRAL MS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN. LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES HAVE ALLOWED MOIST AIR MASS TO STREAM NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF OF MEXICO NWD TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50KT EVIDENT IN VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL PROPAGATE NEWD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 06Z. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF MOBILE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE SRN PLAINS TRACKING TOWARD THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INTO CENTRAL PA TOWARD 06Z TONIGHT ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NERN U.S. COAST. SHALLOW LAYER OF SUB-ZERO WET BULB TEMPERATURES EXISTED AT 00Z AND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL PA. THE 18Z ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE AND BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SURFACE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AROUND 05Z AT STATE COLLEGE AND AROUND 07Z AT WILLIAMSPORT. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN PRESENT RADAR TRENDS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT REGION OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY MOVING NEWD AT 30-35KT. UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE OHIO VALLEY HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.1"/HR...AND SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN RATES BETWEEN 0.05"-0.1"/HR ACROSS CENTRAL PA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS PRECIPITATION ZONE GRADUALLY MOVES NEWD. ..BANACOS.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ... 40437604 40287628 40187706 40167776 40307890 40457915 40917929 41317912 41497874 41617807 41697765 41667711 41597661 41527619 41417594 41027591 40847590 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 02:33:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 21:33:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501080235.j082ZM2h015062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080234 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-080300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0834 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AL...SERN MS AND ERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080234Z - 080300Z A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN MS AND ERN LA WITH SPORADIC REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD. EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOWED SUFFICIENT 0-3KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. BUOYANCY IS APPARENTLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. ..RACY.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29929081 33898717 33568606 29868784 29389001 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 05:43:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 00:43:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501080545.j085j4cO024139@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080544 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080544 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-080715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...SWRN/CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1... VALID 080544Z - 080715Z 05Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1014 MB LOW VCNTY BOWLING GREEN KY WITH STRONGEST 2-HRLY PRESSURE FALL AXIS SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE MID-OH VLY. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH THE TN VLY AND THE MORE INTENSE BRANCH OF THE SWLY LLJ SHOULD START TO MIGRATE NWD OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTING THE NRN PART OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WARM SECTOR HAS EXPANDED INTO NRN AL...AND BIRMINGHAM RADAR HAS SHOWN THAT TSTM CELLS ACROSS CNTRL AL WERE EXHIBITING SOME BRIEF TENDENCIES FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THUS...AN ISOLD TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD OCCUR...BUT OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER S...WARM SECTOR IS MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS EXTREME SRN MS AND SWRN AL. BUT...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES. ..RACY.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB... 31068890 34068667 33988524 31038764 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 06:40:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 01:40:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501080641.j086fumF012511@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080641 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-081115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND/NRN OH AND FAR SERN MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 080641Z - 081115Z HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES AROUND 1 INCH ONGOING OVER FAR ECENTRAL IL...NRN/CENTRAL IND WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO FAR SERN MI/NRN OH OVER THE NEXT 2-5 HOURS. HEAVY SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVER NRN IND THROUGH 10Z. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY /EVIDENT BY RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SRN OH/ AIDING IN AN OCCLUSION PROCESS FOR THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THIS DRY SLOT DEVELOPMENT/OCCLUSION CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RESULTANT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING /EVIDENT BY RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WSW-ENE ORIENTED SNOW BANDS FROM NRN IND INTO FAR SERN MI/NRN OH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCATION OF STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OF -14 TO -18 DEG C /FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH/ WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ROUGHLY 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF AN AXIS FROM HUF TO FDY TO CLE THROUGH 12Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...ILX... 42258304 41408554 40168754 39218747 39838597 40308457 40868264 41688104 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 06:44:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 01:44:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501080645.j086jkBf013975@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080644 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080644 RIZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-081245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PA/NRN NJ...SRN NY...CT/RI AND WRN MA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 080644Z - 081245Z A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. THE HEAVIEST RATES ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN PA/SRN NY THROUGH 12Z...WHERE HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES FROM 0.05-0.15 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/UPPER OHIO VALLEY WHERE A DEEP LAYER OF DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE WAS OCCURRING. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SFC FREEZING ISOTHERM EXTENDS FROM NWRN PA EWD INTO ECENTRAL PA...THEN BACK NEWD TO THE NYC METRO AREA/FAR SRN CT. LOW LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SLOW NWD PROGRESSION OF THIS LINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN PA. INITIAL MID LEVEL WAA WILL AID IN LIGHT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPMENT AS FAR NORTH AS ERN CT/RI AND WRN MA THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF A DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 150 MB AS EVIDENT BY THE 00Z OKX SOUNDING/RECENT SFC OBS...AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PRECLUDE HRLY AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS FROM EXCEEDING 0.05 INCH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE PER RECENT PRESSURE TENDENCY ANALYSES INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WAA WILL OVERSPREAD NRN PA/FAR SRN NY AND NRN NJ BETWEEN 09-12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THIS REGION INDICATE THE EXISTENCE OF AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850 MB THAT WILL SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE OVER SCENTRAL NY...NRN PA AND INLAND AREAS OF NRN NJ/SERN NY. FARTHER NE ACROSS THE REST OF SRN NY/WRN MA...CT AND RI...RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE LOW LEVELS INDICATES THAT AS SATURATION OCCURS...PTYPE WILL CHANGE FROM A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OVER TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. DESPITE INITIAL WET-BULB EFFECTS...COASTAL ARAS OF NRN NJ/SERN NY...LONG ISLAND WILL SEE A GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER FROM LIGHT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW MOVEMENT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ..CROSBIE.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 42767590 42637792 42467905 42007987 41337947 40997799 40937593 40787526 40727408 40907287 41457181 41937147 42667292 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 12:11:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 07:11:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501081213.j08CDL9K005836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081212 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-081745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NY...NRN PA...NRN NJ...CT/RI...MA AND SRN VT/NH CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 081212Z - 081745Z A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH 18Z. HEAVIEST LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AN AXIS FROM SRN NY INTO MA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHERE HRLY RATES UP TO 0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE 06Z ETA SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH PTYPE FORECAST AND HRLY AMOUNTS IN STRONG WAA REGIME CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN PA/SRN NY. STRONG 0-2 KM THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE NOTED BY 40 KT DIFFERENCE IN THE 1-2 KM WINDS BETWEEN PBZ AND BGM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAPID NEWD SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS FROM FAR SRN NY NEWD INTO ECENTRAL NY...MA...SRN VT/NH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RECENT TRENDS IN SFC PRESSURE TENDENCY ANALYSES INDICATES THAT THE SFC LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE A MORE ELY COMPONENT IN IT/S MOTION OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. THUS...EXPECT A MORE EWD TRANSLATION OF THE STRONGEST WAA PROFILE AND PRECIPITATION RATES FROM SRN NY/FAR NRN PA INTO MA/NRN CT AND FAR SRN VT/NH THROUGH 18Z. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE FREEZING ISOTHERM HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS NRN NY/FAR SERN NY AND SRN CT...WITH SLOWER PROGRESS OVER THE VALLEYS OF NRN PA. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NRN PA THROUGH 18Z...VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AID IN A CONTINUED NNWWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FREEZING LINE INLAND OVER THE REST OF NRN NJ/LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OF SERN NY...SRN CT/MOST OF RI AND SERN MA...WITH A NWD MOVEMENT OVER NRN PA JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. STRENGTH OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS THE PRIMARY PTYPES OVER MOST OF SERN NY/NRN CT AND WRN/CENTRAL MA BY 18Z...WITH A LIGHT-MDT SNOW LIKELY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...ECENTRAL NY...SRN VT/SRN NH...BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AS THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER DEEPENS AHEAD OF STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. ..CROSBIE.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 43097076 43537205 43447371 43207466 43037636 42797748 42077871 41467862 41227783 40977636 40837530 41227373 41527229 42237099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 12:13:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 07:13:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501081215.j08CFO9w006912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081214 NYZ000-PAZ000-081715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL NY...FAR NWRN PA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 081214Z - 081715Z MDT-HVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NWRN PA/SWRN NY THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE MOVING ENEWD INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACK REGION OF NY BETWEEN 15-18Z. HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN NY/NWRN PA THROUGH 15Z. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH HAS APPARENTLY REACHED MATURITY AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO PUSH RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WELL FORMED DEFORMATION ZONE WITH MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM FAR SERN MI/NRN OH INTO NWRN PA/FAR SWRN NY THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NY BY 18Z. HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES AIDED BY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE AT TIMES REACHED 2 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS APPARENTLY REACHING PEAK INTENSITY...AND THE DRYSLOT WILL FURTHER AID IN OCCLUSION AND BEGINNING OF A WEAKENING TREND...HRLY RATES AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAX SNOWFALL RATE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO SWRN/CENTRAL NY. AS LOW LEVEL COOLING OCCURS BEHIND N-S ORIENTED SFC TROUGH...AREAS OF CENTRAL/SWRN NY WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OVER TO MDT-HVY SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. ..CROSBIE.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE... 44027426 44507564 43377676 43207903 42058043 41688011 42017879 42287733 43247479 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 12:14:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 07:14:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501081215.j08CFon8007027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081212 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-081745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NY...NRN PA...NRN NJ...CT/RI...MA AND SRN VT/NH CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 081212Z - 081745Z A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH 18Z. HEAVIEST LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AN AXIS FROM SRN NY INTO MA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHERE HRLY RATES UP TO 0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE 06Z ETA SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH PTYPE FORECAST AND HRLY AMOUNTS IN STRONG WAA REGIME CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN PA/SRN NY. STRONG 0-2 KM THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE NOTED BY 40 KT DIFFERENCE IN THE 1-2 KM WINDS BETWEEN PBZ AND BGM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAPID NEWD SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS FROM FAR SRN NY NEWD INTO ECENTRAL NY...MA...SRN VT/NH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RECENT TRENDS IN SFC PRESSURE TENDENCY ANALYSES INDICATES THAT THE SFC LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE A MORE ELY COMPONENT IN IT/S MOTION OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. THUS...EXPECT A MORE EWD TRANSLATION OF THE STRONGEST WAA PROFILE AND PRECIPITATION RATES FROM SRN NY/FAR NRN PA INTO MA/NRN CT AND FAR SRN VT/NH THROUGH 18Z. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE FREEZING ISOTHERM HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS NRN NY/FAR SERN NY AND SRN CT...WITH SLOWER PROGRESS OVER THE VALLEYS OF NRN PA. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NRN PA THROUGH 18Z...VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AID IN A CONTINUED NNWWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FREEZING LINE INLAND OVER THE REST OF NRN NJ/LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OF SERN NY...SRN CT/MOST OF RI AND SERN MA...WITH A NWD MOVEMENT OVER NRN PA JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. STRENGTH OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS THE PRIMARY PTYPES OVER MOST OF SERN NY/NRN CT AND WRN/CENTRAL MA BY 18Z...WITH A LIGHT-MDT SNOW LIKELY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...ECENTRAL NY...SRN VT/SRN NH...BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AS THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER DEEPENS AHEAD OF STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. ..CROSBIE.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 43097076 43537205 43447371 43207466 43037636 42797748 42077871 41467862 41227783 40977636 40837530 41227373 41527229 42237099  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 12:15:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 07:15:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501081217.j08CH3hA007290@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081214 NYZ000-PAZ000-081715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL NY...FAR NWRN PA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 081214Z - 081715Z MDT-HVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NWRN PA/SWRN NY THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE MOVING ENEWD INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACK REGION OF NY BETWEEN 15-18Z. HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN NY/NWRN PA THROUGH 15Z. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH HAS APPARENTLY REACHED MATURITY AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO PUSH RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WELL FORMED DEFORMATION ZONE WITH MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM FAR SERN MI/NRN OH INTO NWRN PA/FAR SWRN NY THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NY BY 18Z. HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES AIDED BY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE AT TIMES REACHED 2 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS APPARENTLY REACHING PEAK INTENSITY...AND THE DRYSLOT WILL FURTHER AID IN OCCLUSION AND BEGINNING OF A WEAKENING TREND...HRLY RATES AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAX SNOWFALL RATE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO SWRN/CENTRAL NY. AS LOW LEVEL COOLING OCCURS BEHIND N-S ORIENTED SFC TROUGH...AREAS OF CENTRAL/SWRN NY WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OVER TO MDT-HVY SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. ..CROSBIE.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE... 44027426 44507564 43377676 43207903 42058043 41688011 42017879 42287733 43247479  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 18:30:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 13:30:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501081832.j08IWXVx000827@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081832 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081831 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ME / MUCH OF NH AND MA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 081831Z - 082230Z OCCASIONALLY HVY SNOW RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE OVER NERN MA AND SRN NH...AND WILL INCREASE FROM CENTRAL NH INTO SRN ME BY 21Z. HRLY LIQUID RATES OF 0.10-0.20 IN HAVE BEEN COMMON THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS LOW LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES. LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED AS COLUMN COOLS ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER N...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL PERSIST AND WILL SATURATE PROFILES...ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW FALL FROM CENTRAL NH INTO SRN ME. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INCREASING ABOVE 600 MB...COINCIDENT WITH MOST FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH. THUS A NEW AREA OF HVY SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER ERN NH INTO SRN ME THIS AFTERNOON. ..JEWELL.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX... 42327083 42217122 42137242 42567226 43837198 44277112 44546969 44226893 43886923 43497023 42917076 42627060 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 9 01:06:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 20:06:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501090108.j0918LvE026258@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090107 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090107 WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-090700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NV...SERN ID...EXTREME W-CENTRAL WY...EXTREME NWRN AND N-CENTRAL UT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 090107Z - 090700Z HEAVY SNOWS FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. RATES WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF SFC FRONT AND WWD FACING SLOPES AS DETAILED BELOW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SHARP FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR LINCOLN/TETON COUNTY BORDER IN WY...SWWD ACROSS BEAR LAKE/FRANKLIN AND SRN ONEIDA COUNTIES ID...NRN/WRN BOX ELDER COUNTY UT...TO ROUGHLY 30 S EKO. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN DRIFTING SWD INVOF ID/UT BORDER PAST 1-2 HOURS BASED ON MESOWEST/RAWS OBS...AND MAY CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO EXTREME NRN UT BECAUSE OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING/REINFORCEMENT BY ABUNDANT PRECIP TO ITS N. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SIERRA NV RANGE -- IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION ALOFT ACROSS NV...WHICH WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS REMAINDER DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. LKN RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME ABOVE FRONTAL LAYER. RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS WITH BETWEEN .25-.5 INCH PW IS PRESENT BENEATH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN 7-8 DEG C/KM RANGE...WITH VERY WEAK CAPE PRESENT IN RAOB. ACCORDINGLY...ISOLATED LIGHTNING INDICATED IN PRECIP BAND OVER NERN NV...AND IR CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ABOVE NRN NV. EXPECT SNOW RATES TO PEAK BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3Z-6Z...WITH UP TO 2-3 INCHES/HOUR IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT S OF FRONTAL ZONE...AND AT SFC FOR ALL ELEVATIONS N OF FRONT. HEAVIER SNOW RATES 3-4 INCHES/HOUR COULD OCCUR IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS -- FACING W OR SW -- ALONG AND N OF FRONT. LOCALLY EXTREME RATES NEAR 4 INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 01/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... 40751712 41721576 42771375 43521160 43591071 43211054 42431054 41801067 41641084 41601097 41661114 41841136 41981170 42001238 41891297 41411378 40791472 40331576 40061648 40411691 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 9 06:21:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 Jan 2005 01:21:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501090623.j096N2MN005879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090622 WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-091115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN ID...FAR NRN UT...SWRN/CENTRAL WY CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 090622Z - 091115Z HVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL END FROM SW TO NE ACROSS FAR SERN ID...FAR NRN UT...SWRN AND CENTRAL WY FROM 08-11Z. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AIDING IN STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT/ AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HVY SNOWFALL ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT FROM NRN UT NEWD INTO CENTRAL WY OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN SLOPES THE NRN WASATCH/WIND RIVER MTNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF SLC TO NEAR RIW MOVES SLOWLY SEWD. COMBINED WITH OTHER FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...SNOWFALL RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE FOUND IN THESE AREAS. PROGRESSION OF UPPER FORCING...AS EVIDENT BY PRESSURE FALLS MOVING NEWD INTO NRN WY/SERN MT OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHMENT OF HVY SNOWFALL FROM SW-NE FROM 08-11Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH... 43541040 41621211 40551330 40331279 40491128 40861036 41210966 41910805 43620738 43800873 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 03:56:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 22:56:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140359.j0E3xcQt017886@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140358 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-140500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0958 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 14... VALID 140358Z - 140500Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE ERN HALF OF WW. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS -- REPLACING WW 0014. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS -- AHEAD OF ADVANCING LINE OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH FEWER ISOLATED / SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EVIDENT ATTM AHEAD OF MAIN LINE...THE LINE ITSELF HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS ARE EVIDENT WITHIN THE LINE -- PRIMARILY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INVOF WEAK SURFACE LOW EVIDENT ON LATEST MESOANALYSIS. AS THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE LINE SHIFT ENEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT AN ISOLATED TORNADO / DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THIS AREA. THEREFORE...REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 36088162 36528057 36587915 35567883 32728024 32978183 34118197 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 05:31:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 00:31:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140533.j0E5Xm35031137@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140532 VAZ000-MDZ000-140700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140532Z - 140700Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN / CENTRAL VA. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. VERY STRONG WIND FIELD / FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VA -- AND THE ENTIRE MIDDLE / SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION -- AHEAD OF APPROACHING RAIN / CONVECTIVE BAND. THOUGH MODEL AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS S CENTRAL VA...PERSISTENT ROTATING STORM SURVIVED NEWD INTO ERN FRANKLIN CO VA DURING THE PAST HOUR. THIS INDICATES THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXISTS -- AT LEAST INTO SRN PORTIONS OF VA. WITH STRONG WIND FIELD IN PLACE AND SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY INDICATED ENEWD INTO CENTRAL AND SERN VA...IT APPEARS THAT A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND POTENTIAL NEED FOR WW ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 37297962 37817926 38347791 38187650 36907668 36557865 36597969 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 07:07:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 02:07:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140709.j0E79qWC005341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140709 VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-141315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH/NW INTO CNTRL PA/WRN AND CNTRL NY/NRN VT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 140709Z - 141315Z PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NY/NWRN PA OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR POSSIBLE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT FROM MSS/PEO/DSV/HLG/HTS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING 10-15 DEGREES WITHIN JUST A FEW MINUTES OF FROPA...WITH SFC PRESSURE RISES OF 1MB/HR BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MODERATE SNOW BEING REPORTED IN NERN OH/WRN NY. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATE OR EVEN HEAVY SNOW AS THE FRONT PASSES WITH RAPID COOLING OCCURRING WITHIN THE COLUMN DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICAL LIFT. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND THIS BAND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD THROUGH 12Z. IN ADDITION...STRONG UVV WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE MODELING THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WELL...INDICATING A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT BUF BETWEEN 04-05Z WHICH AGREES WITH OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUGGEST ABOUT A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW ONCE IT BEGINS...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE LAYER. SATURATED AND DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES WILL FAVOR HEAVIER SNOW RATES...LIKELY AT LEAST 1 INCH/HR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES FOR BRIEF PERIODS. ETA/RUC SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO IN THEIR DEPICTION OF PRECIPITATION RATES. SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN NERN OH/EXTREME NWRN PA AND WRN NY NEAR LAKE ERIE. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AT LOCATIONS NEAR BFD/PEO...AND IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS NEAR UCA/BGM AND AFTER 10Z ACROSS NRN VT. ..TAYLOR.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 45047462 42628035 41878075 40308079 40187971 41617578 43447331 44957171 45067324 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 07:16:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 02:16:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140718.j0E7Iv40008699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140718 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140718 NCZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-140815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140718Z - 140815Z THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL THIS MORNING. SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADOES ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL THIS MORNING WITH SRH VALUES OF 150-200 M2/S2. LIMITING FACTOR SEEMS TO BE MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER PER RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...AS UPSTREAM UPPER SPEED MAX...NOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO...APPROACHES...TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL FL/NRN FL LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA EWD. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF STORMS SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. ..RACY.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MLB...TBW...JAX... 34278076 35728030 36508019 36507805 36387741 35587736 34167811 34217919 27248279 28178281 28638194 29198186 29568142 29388092 28698047 27588094 27178158 26758221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 07:19:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 02:19:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140722.j0E7MhCb009908@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140722 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140722 COR FLZ000-140815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140722Z - 140815Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL THIS MORNING. SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADOES ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL THIS MORNING WITH SRH VALUES OF 150-200 M2/S2. LIMITING FACTOR SEEMS TO BE MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER PER RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...AS UPSTREAM UPPER SPEED MAX...NOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO...APPROACHES...TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL FL/NRN FL LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA EWD. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF STORMS SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. ..RACY.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27248279 28178281 28638194 29198186 29568142 29388092 28698047 27588094 27178158 26758221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 07:24:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 02:24:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140727.j0E7R2eD011742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140726 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140726 NCZ000-SCZ000-140900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC AND NCNTRL SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 15... VALID 140726Z - 140900Z THE TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WT 15. THREAT MAY SPREAD EWD INTO ERN NC LATER THIS MORNING AND AN ADDITIONAL WW POSSIBLE. 06Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1009 MB LOW OVER NWRN NC. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN LOCATED OVER VA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER MESOLOW MAY BE FORMING OVER SCNTRL SC. THIS WILL MOVE NEWD INTO CNTRL NC THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY AID IN THE BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. 0-1KM SRH IS ALREADY EXTREME WITH VWPS SHOWING AROUND 350-400 M2/S2 ACROSS CNTRL NC. INSTABILITY...ALBEIT LOW...IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED TSTM THREAT AND SHOULD NOT BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT. LINE OF STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO CNTRL/ERN NC AFTER 10Z AND IT IS POSSIBLE ANOTHER WW WILL BE NEEDED FARTHER EAST. ..RACY.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 34278076 35728030 36508019 36507805 36387741 35587736 34167811 34217919 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 07:34:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 02:34:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140737.j0E7bARL015344@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140736 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-140930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NY...EXTREME ERN PA...NJ...DE...NERN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140736Z - 140930Z NARROW BUT PRONOUNCED LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION -- EVIDENT INITIALLY FROM OTSEGO COUNTY NY SWWD ACROSS ERN PA THROUGH FREDERICK COUNTY MD -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD 25-30 KT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND ACCOMPANYING WIND DAMAGE. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE NARROW PLUME OF NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY -- APPROXIMATELY 30-50 NM WIDE -- AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE OVER DE VALLEY NWD ALMOST TO NJ/NY BORDER. DESPITE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC...SFC TEMPS LOW-MID 60S F AND LOW 60S DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPES 200-500 J/KG FROM NRN MD TO NRN PA/NJ BORDER...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. LOWER-THETAE AIR IS ADVECTING OFF ATLANTIC OVER MUCH OF ERN NJ AND SERN NY. HOWEVER...SLIGHT VEERING WITH TIME OF PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH WAA TO EXTEND BUOYANT CORRIDOR NEARLY TO NJ COASTLINE AND NWD INTO SOME OF SERN NY. THIS IN TURN WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFT GUSTS TO PENETRATE TO SFC...POSSIBLY OF DAMAGING INTENSITY. ..EDWARDS.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 39117725 40007651 41527544 42627494 42697447 42637399 42357366 42087354 41157360 40667378 40277401 39567440 39047486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 08:54:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 03:54:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140857.j0E8vJEd013671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140856 NCZ000-SCZ000-141000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC AND EXTREME NCNTRL SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 15... VALID 140856Z - 141000Z TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREATS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR CNTRL/ERN NC AND ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. ORIGINAL MESOLOW HAS MOVED INTO SCNTRL VA AT 08Z WITH INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL SC/SCNTRL NC. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS SATURATED WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2. APPROACH OF THE MESOLOW WILL AUGMENT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...BUT KINEMATICS AND LOW LCLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THREATS WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL...BUT RISKS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO CONSIDER ANOTHER WW. ..RACY.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE... 34298001 36487917 36507701 34207800 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 09:13:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 04:13:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140916.j0E9GiE4020892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140916 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140915 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-141045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DC...DE...SRN MD...CNTRL/ERN VA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 16... VALID 140915Z - 141045Z TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS CONTINUE. 09Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A MESOLOW BETWEEN KLYH-KCHO. BACKED WINDS INVOF THIS FEATURE HAVE AUGMENTED THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE WITH EXTREME VALUES OF 0-1KM SRH...IN EXCESS OF 600 M2/S2. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND REPORTS OF DAMAGE ACROSS CNTRL VA THIS MORNING. THE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW THROUGH 12Z WITH A NARROW BAND OF WEAK...BUT POSITIVE BUOYANCY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS ANOTHER MESOLOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING OVER SCNTRL NC. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE INTO SERN VA LATER THIS MORNING. ..RACY.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 36647896 39037705 39027381 36597562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 11:32:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 06:32:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501141135.j0EBZ1Zr008506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141134 NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-141300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...SERN NY INCLUDING PARTS OF NYC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 17... VALID 141134Z - 141300Z ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN NJ AND PARTS OF WRN LONG ISLAND THROUGH 12-13Z...BUT THE THREAT SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. WS 17 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE 14Z EXPIRATION. THE INSTABILITY AXIS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN SHRINKING AS THE SHOWERS APPROACH ERN NJ AND LONG ISLAND. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC HAS MAINTAINED A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER EAST. THUS...SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...OR...BECOME MORE DETACHED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 12-13Z WILL BE ACROSS ERN NJ AND PERHAPS WRN PARTS OF NYC. ..RACY.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI... 39347551 40507456 41497382 41507307 39307447 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 12:03:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 07:03:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501141206.j0EC6Zuu021665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141205 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-141330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN NC...ERN VA...SRN MD...SRN DE AND ADJACENT BAYS/COASTAL WATERS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...18... VALID 141205Z - 141330Z ISOLD TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE 12-14Z. MESOANALYSIS PLACES LOWS VCNTY KRIC IN ECNTRL VA AND ABOUT 30 N OF KFAY IN CNTRL NC. EACH LOW WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY EXTREME VALUES OF STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN VA INTO SRN MD/DE THROUGH 14Z. SLIGHTLY LOWER TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST OVER NERN NC AS THE SECONDARY LOW MIGRATES TOWARDS KECG. BUT...SLIGHTLY DRIER POCKET OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS ADVECTING NWD FROM COASTAL SERN NC...RESULTING IN A MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. CORE OF THE STRONGEST H85 JET IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NEWD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS ADVERTISED BY 09Z RUC. THIS WILL TEND TO LESSEN THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BEGINS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE...OR INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF DE...MD...VA...NC. ..RACY.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH... 35647837 38787629 38777418 35527561 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 15:23:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 10:23:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501141526.j0EFQ8wh011943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141524 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141523 NCZ000-141630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA...ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 18... VALID 141523Z - 141630Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 18 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 16Z. MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...WHERE IT IS JUST NOW SURGING ACROSS THE LEE SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...MOST VIGOROUS ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FOCUSED ON PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE/ WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. THIS FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY 17-18Z. UNTIL THEN...RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS DIMINISHING. ..KERR.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM... 34057790 34937731 35557662 36027628 36387589  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 15:56:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 10:56:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501141559.j0EFxCND009230@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141554 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141554 FLZ000-141830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141554Z - 141830Z POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ARE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HEATING OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS SHOULD WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENOUGH FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 18Z. CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST AND WEST OF THE KEYS...AND MAY AFFECT KEY WEST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...NEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS...BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE MIAMI/FORT LAUDERDALE/PALM BEACH AREAS BY 18-20Z. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR SEEM RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME RISK OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS NEAR MOST INTENSE CELLS. ..KERR.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... 24628176 25008131 25448104 26138076 26528069 26758048 26738030 26657999  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 12:10:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 07:10:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501151213.j0FCDW7V006055@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151211 ORZ000-WAZ000-151615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND N-CENTRAL ORE...AND FAR SRN WA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 151211Z - 151615Z COVERAGE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NWRN/N-CENTRAL ORE THROUGH 18Z WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD INTO THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY FROM EUG TO PDX...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE CASCADES OF NRN ORE EWD ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN THROUGH 15/18Z. ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS WORKED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS EVIDENCED BY 1041MB SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN. SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVELY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXIST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN WWD TO PDX. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED FROM 25 N OTH SEWD ACROSS INTERIOR SWRN ORE. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS NWRN ORE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD. SHORTWAVE 500MB RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST IS SLOWING PROGRESS OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED AT EUG SINCE 1044Z AND SHOULD DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. COLD AIR MASS IS DEEPER AND WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COLUMBIA GORGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH 18Z...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON. WET BULB COOLING AND DRAINAGE FLOW WITHIN THE RIVER BASIN SHOULD SLOW EFFECTS OF LARGE-SCALE WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. ..BANACOS.. 01/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR... 43692281 44002325 44412351 44972353 45772343 45952322 45982280 45882236 45842182 45832142 45752120 45532101 45152089 44732093 44272096 44042108 43722150 43472187 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 18:56:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 13:56:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501151859.j0FIxfxo014422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151858 ORZ000-WAZ000-152330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW/CNTRL ORE AND PORTIONS SW/CNTRL WA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 151858Z - 152330Z COMBINATION OF FZRA/SLEET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE COLUMBIA GORGE/CASCADES THROUGH 00Z...WHILE FZRA CHANGES TO RAIN IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY/WA INTERIOR VALLEY AROUND/AFTER 21Z. WV IMAGERY PORTRAYS VORT MAX OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST AROUND 43N/130W. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS ERN WA...WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN/COLUMBIA GORGE INTO NCNTRL/NE ORE. AT 18Z...MESONET OBS FEATURE FZRA REPORTS IN WILLAMETTE VALLEY/WA INTERIOR VALLEY FROM OLM-PDX-SLE WITH SFC TEMPS HOLDING AROUND 29F-31F. IN THIS CORRIDOR...15Z RUC PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN AROUND/AFTER 21Z OWING TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/WARMING SFC TEMPS. FURTHER EAST...IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE/CASCADES/ERN SLOPES...AS PRECIP SHIELD EXPANDS EWD THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO YIELD TO SLEET AND/OR FZRA AS SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED BELOW ENCROACHING WARM LAYER BASED AROUND 850-900 MB. ..GUYER.. 01/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...SEW...PQR... 46912270 47002159 46272031 45901994 45471955 45051916 44231920 43881937 43852117 44552287 45002301 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 01:19:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 20:19:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501170122.j0H1M2rq005450@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170120 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-170615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0105 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CAPE COD AND COASTAL MA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 170120Z - 170615Z OCNLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH 03Z ACROSS CAPE COD/NANTUCKET/MARTHA VINEYARD AND COASTAL AREAS OF ERN MA. SNOW RATES MAY APPROACH 1 IN/HR INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AMIDST INCREASINGLY STRONG NELY WINDS. WV/IR IMAGERY IN ACCORDANCE WITH SURFACE DIAGNOSTICS REVEALS INTENSIFYING SFC LOW CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF ACK /NANTUCKET/. RAPID PRESSURE FALLS HIGHLIGHTED BY 5.7 MB/3 HR FALLS WERE OBSERVED IN OCEAN BUOY 60 SSE OF ACK BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. WITH MARINE INFLUENCE...SFC TEMPS REMAIN AROUND/ABOVE 32F ACROSS COASTAL MA/CAPE COD INTO MARTHAS VINEYARD/NANTUCKET AT 00Z. HOWEVER 21 RUC SOUNDINGS/00Z GYX RAOB SUPPORT OCNLY HEAVY SNOW GIVEN SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS ABOVE SFC LAYER. AS CYCLONE INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AROUND/AFTER 06Z...SW-NE ORIENTED MID LEVEL /600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL TEND TO PROMOTE MULTIPLE SNOW BANDS IN A SIMILAR ORIENTATION ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF ERN/SERN MA. IN ADDITION...OWING TO STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...NELY WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AND CREATE PERIODIC WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 01/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX... 43047079 42527036 41966991 41197000 41307076 41617126 42087136 42527128 42867100 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 05:13:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 00:13:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501170516.j0H5GLEs005461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170515 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170515 MEZ000-MAZ000-RIZ000-170915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL MA AND COASTAL ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 170515Z - 170915Z A CONTINUATION OF LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL MA THROUGH 10Z...WITH SNOW RATES DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NNEWD FROM THE GULF OF ME INTO THE MID-COAST AND DOWNEAST REGIONS OF ME BETWEEN 06-08Z...PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. AT 5Z...SURFACE CYCLONE ESTIMATED 200NM SE OF ACK WILL PASS WELL EAST OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND TRACKING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO JUST SE OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 17/12Z. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...MODERATE 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE PERIODS OF SW-NE ORIENTED MESOSCALE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTH SHORE OF BOS AND CAPE COD THROUGH 10 UTC. A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS LIKELY THEREAFTER AS FORCING MOVES NE OF THE AREA AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC COLD ADVECTION REGIME MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO NLY AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH GUSTS AT COASTAL POINTS TO 35KT LIKELY. GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35KT HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS FAR SERN MA...THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SUGGEST BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR ARE LIKELY IN NARROW...HEAVIER BANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MEANWHILE...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FROM THE MID-COAST REGION OF ME EWD ACROSS DOWNEAST ME BETWEEN 6-9Z AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN 700-500MB LAYER TRANSLATES NNEWD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND EXTREMELY DEEP DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER APPROACHING 10KFT PER 3Z RUC SHOULD MAXIMIZE SNOW TO LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATIOS ALLOWING FOR LOCALIZED 1-1.5 IN/HR SNOWFALL DURING THE 6-12Z PERIOD. ..BANACOS.. 01/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX... 44056948 44856854 45306768 45226714 44966691 44416735 43056866 41296976 40937023 40937131 41657108 42547076 43506999 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 12:36:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 07:36:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501171238.j0HCcsl3009880@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171237 WAZ000-171630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CST MON JAN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR WA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 171237Z - 171630Z FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MTN PASSES OF THE WA CASCADES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EWD INTO CENTRAL WA THROUGH 18Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05"/HR ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY IN THE CASCADE MT. PASSES BY MID-LATE MORNING. LOW-LEVEL ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED EAST OF CASCADES AS EVIDENCED BY 1036MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AT 17/12Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN THE MTN PASSES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL WA...WITH ONLY SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-5F. MEANWHILE...THE 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL WA WILL TRANSLATE EWD IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST. VAD WIND PROFILE FROM NWRN WA INDICATES STRONG VEERING WINDS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 6KM WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 50-55KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LAYER. IR IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND NWRN WA...THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD SEWD ACROSS WA STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. UVV WILL BE DRIVEN BY 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION WHICH SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL WA BY 18Z...WITH LOCALLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OWING TO EXISTING SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. LIFT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES...AND MAY DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER...STRONG SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES /PW 1-1.25 IN ALONG THE WA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON/ SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL WA. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BASED ON 09Z RUC GENERALLY SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN IN THE MT. PASSES AND SLEET INITIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL WA. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR SLEET TO BECOME FREEZING RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS CONSIDERABLE WARMING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN 850-700MB LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL WA. ..BANACOS.. 01/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW... 48342143 47392150 46952151 46662150 46332139 46072070 46141950 46571885 47181869 47911866 48521884 48771925 48971960 48952053 48912106 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 19:02:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 14:02:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501171905.j0HJ53ZV007486@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171903 WAZ000-172330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CST MON JAN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR WA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 171903Z - 172330Z FZRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN MTN PASSES/ERN SLOPES OF CASCADES... WITH 0.05 IN/HR LIQUID EQUIVALENTS AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...WHILE FZRA/SLEET SPREADS EWD INTO PORTIONS OF NE WA MTNS/COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH 00Z. WSWLY PACIFIC JET/WARM CONVEYOR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM VERY MOIST AIRMASS /AS EVIDENT BY 1.08 IN PRECIP WATER IN 12Z UIL RAOB/ INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AT 18Z...SURFACE DIAGNOSTICS/MESONET OBSERVATIONS DEPICT SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS REMAINING ENTRENCHED FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES ON PERIPHERY OF 1038 MB CNTRL/SRN ID HIGH PRESSURE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MORNING...15Z BASED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CONTINUANCE OF FZRA SCENARIO IN MTN PASS AREAS/ERN SLOPES OF CASCADES WHERE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS PERSISTS BENEATH ENCROACHING ELEVATED WARM LAYER BASED AROUND 850 MB. FURTHER EAST...A RELATIVELY LIGHTER MIX OF SLEET/FZRA EXPECTED TO EXPAND EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NE WA MTNS/COLUMBIA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION/INCREASINGLY SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES. ..GUYER.. 01/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW... 48722105 48312123 47512138 46842152 46382146 46062123 46082065 46401925 46951829 47721775 48161764 48791809 48831917 48881991 48892062  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 01:22:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 20:22:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501180124.j0I1Orw0016705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180123 IDZ000-WAZ000-ORZ000-180600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0109 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 PM CST MON JAN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR WA/NRN ID CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 180123Z - 180600Z FZRA/SOME SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MTN PASS AREAS OF CREST/ERN SLOPES OF CASCADES INTO PORTIONS OF ERN WA/FAR NRN ID THROUGH 06Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD AREAS OF CONSIDERABLE ICE GLAZE AND HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF 0.05 IN OR GREATER. DEEP MOISTURE FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AMIDST 50-70 KT MID LEVEL WSWLY WINDS -- AS SAMPLED IN ACARS DATA/WSR-88D VADS ACROSS WA. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME IN 500-700 MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD ERN WA/NRN ID...INDUCING BROAD PRECIP SHIELD THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR WA/NRN ID...BARRING DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PER LATEST SURFACE DIAGNOSTICS/MESONET OBS...SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING ARCTIC AIRMASS LARGELY REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM MTN PASS AREAS/ERN SLOPES OF CASCADES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND MAJORITY OF MTN AREAS OF NE WA/FAR NRN ID. PER 00Z OTX RAOB...ELEVATED WARM LAYER /+3 DEG C/ CENTERED AROUND 800 MB HAS ALREADY SPREAD EWD THROUGH ERN WA EARLY THIS EVENING...EVIDENCE OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR FZRA WHERE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING. YIELDING TO MID LEVEL WAA...RAIN SEEMINGLY ALREADY BECOMING DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE INVOF I-90 CORRIDOR OF ECNTRL WA/NRN ID...AS EVIDENCED BY GEG AND COE /COEUR D'ALENE ID/ SFC WET BULBS WARMING ABOVE 32F OVER PAST FEW HOURS PRIOR TO 01Z. ..GUYER.. 01/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR... 48722105 48312123 47512138 46842152 46432155 46012158 45732075 45832001 45971884 46081791 46941750 47711689 48171617 48921627 48961891 48971977 48962061 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 13:13:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 08:13:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501181316.j0IDFxiR007791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181315 MNZ000-NDZ000-181715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 AM CST TUE JAN 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/N-CENTRAL MN AND NERN ND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 181315Z - 181715Z REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD ACROSS NERN ND REACHING N-CENTRAL MN BY 18Z. SNOW RATES OF 1"/HR LASTING AROUND 2 HOURS IS LIKELY...WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. AT 13Z...RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS NERN ND IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. THE LOW WILL RACE ESEWD AT 45KT REACHING NWRN ONTARIO BY 18Z. SYSTEM IS BRINGING LEADING EDGE OF PACIFIC AIR INTO THE REGION...REPLACING ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. A SWD EXTENDING CHINOOK TYPE WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AT 13Z. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL PVA WILL SUSTAIN N-S BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA ALREADY INDICATE SLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SMALL WATER CONTENT TO SNOW...CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOWFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH 18Z. FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW TO 2-3 HOURS...ALTHOUGH LOW VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS BECOME WLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. ..BANACOS.. 01/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 48939525 48889744 48789799 47819776 47569711 47529600 47289500 47169388 47649318 48039287 48359263 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 12:17:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 07:17:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501211219.j0LCJU5j028816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211216 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-211645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0111 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ND / NRN AND ERN SD / WRN MN CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 211216Z - 211645Z FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER SRN ND AS WELL AS NRN AND ERN SD WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 0.05 IN. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW FARTHER NE WITH HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR DEVELOPING FROM ERN ND INTO SWRN MN. PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS MORNING ACROSS ND IN RESPONSE TO BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. ORIENTATION OF THERMAL GRADIENT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITHIN A NW-SE ORIENTED CORRIDOR. 12Z BIS AND ABR RAOBS INDICATE SLEET PROFILES WITH WARM NOSE AROUND 800 MB. AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES...A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN OVER NERN SD WITH ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. FARTHER E INTO ERN ND AND WRN MN...PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SNOW. ..JEWELL.. 01/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 43909675 44259819 45460129 46640180 47580231 47990299 48310318 49010315 49020190 49019864 48999741 46149492 44879439 44019486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 18:59:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 13:59:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501211901.j0LJ1xuR007238@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211859 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-220000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD AND CNTRL/SRN MN INTO WRN WI/NRN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 211859Z - 220000Z SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUALLY INCREASE INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WCNTRL/CNTRL/SCNTRL MN...WITH HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SE MN/NE IA/WRN WI AFTER 21Z. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURATION. DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS LEADING MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING SEWD ACROSS BOTH ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/PROFILER NETWORK DEPICTS LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW-SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ACCORDANCE WITH VOLUMETRIC RADAR TRENDS...HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DYNAMIC ASCENT OVERSPREADS ELEVATED PORTION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. 12Z ETA/15Z RUC DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN 285K-295K LAYER ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA/WRN WI BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD INTO THIS CORRIDOR AFTER 21Z...AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR /HEAVY/ SNOW GIVEN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC PROFILES AND ABSENCE OF ELEVATED MELTING LAYER. ON PERIPHERY OF HEAVIER SNOW...AREAS OF FZRA AND/OR SLEET WILL EXIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN CORRIDOR FROM FAR ERN SD INTO NW IA /ROUGHLY ATY-SPW/ OWING TO 800-850 MB WARM LAYER -- E.G. 12Z ABR/OAX RAOBS -- ABOVE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING LAYER. ..GUYER.. 01/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 46359220 44739074 43139013 42359058 42269228 42639423 43799696 44969805 45659785 46629699 47049606 47039391 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 00:43:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 19:43:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501220045.j0M0jitm015751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220044 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-220545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE MN/NE IA...CNTRL/SRN WI...AND NRN IL/NW IN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 220044Z - 220545Z MDT/HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS FAR SE MN/NE IA AND CNTRL/SRN WI THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW INCREASING AFTER 03Z ACROSS NRN IL/NW IN. RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURATION. WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE CHANNELS PORTRAY LEADING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SE SD/WRN IA AHEAD OF SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUNGING SWD ACROSS SRN MANITOBA. AS SEEN BY STRONG WAA REGIME IN 00Z MPX/DVN RAOBS AND BLR /BLUE RIVER WI/ PROFILER...WAA/INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN 285K-295K LAYER WILL CONTINUE THE SEWD EXTRAPOLATION OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW THROUGH SRN WI/NE IA/NRN IL/NW IND THIS EVENING. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...18Z ETA/21Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF DEEPLY SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES AMIDST FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER. 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL MATERIALIZE AROUND/AFTER 03Z ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. ..GUYER.. 01/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX... 44949010 44288862 43398746 42078595 41548619 41228705 41378831 41798975 42609118 43399232 43839252 44449207 45009137 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 04:49:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 23:49:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501220451.j0M4pp9q013620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220451 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220450 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-221045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0114 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/NW MN INTO CNTRL/SE MN /NRN IA/WRN WI CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/HEAVY SNOW VALID 220450Z - 221045Z BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/W CNTRL MN WILL SPREAD EWD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA AND WRN WI WITHIN THE NEXT 1-4 HOURS. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. SFC PRESSURE RISES 2-3 MB/HR ARE ACCELERATING A COLD FRONT E/SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL MN. VERY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE SUSTAINED AT 25-40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH RECENTLY REPORTED IN SE SD/SW MN. AREA VAD WIND DATA PROFILES INDICATE 35-50 MPH WINDS IN THE LOWER 1KM. EVEN THOUGH THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS MOVED INTO SCNTRL/SE MN...GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BOUNDARY MARKED BY SHARP WIND SHIFT NOW EXTENDS FROM ALGONA IA TO JUST EAST OF NEW ULM/HUTCHINSON MN. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES EWD...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS SE MN/NE IA/WRN WI. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE ACROSS SRN MN INTO WCNTRL WI...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN AREAS. IN ADDITION TO DEVELOPING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...MOD/HEAVY SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SE MN/NE IA/WRN WI NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SNOW RATES OF 1 INCH/HR OR GREATER. ..TAYLOR.. 01/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 48639727 47419795 45059762 44379683 43469543 43129396 42939246 42989108 43919076 46729422 48609656 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 05:55:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 00:55:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501220557.j0M5vw2c005411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220557 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220556 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-221200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE AND UPPER OH VALLEY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 220556Z - 221200Z POTENTIAL FOR HOURLY SNOW RATES APPROACHING 1-1.5 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND/OH. ADDITIONALLY...POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING .05-.10 INCH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TOWARD 12Z OVER SRN OH INTO WRN WV. 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE DEEPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST WITH EMBEDDED LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT TAKING THIS LEAD FEATURE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT WHILE STRONGER...UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG/JUST N OF THE OH RIVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD DISTURBANCE. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD DOWNSTREAM FROM LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SRN WI/NRN IL INTO SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND AND NWRN OH. LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL CURRENTLY FROM JVL SEWD THROUGH THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TO NEAR SBN WHERE VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE ARE COMMON. 3-4 MB/2 HR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THIS SAME AREA /PER CURRENT MESOANALYSIS/ SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF STRONG...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL MOTION OWING TO COUPLING OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL DCVA. EXPECT AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND NRN PORTIONS OF IND/OH. HERE...PERSISTENT... DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL SUPPORT HOURLY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING 1-1.5 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG SWLY 45-55 KT LLJ AXIS MAY SUFFICIENTLY WARM 1-2 KM AGL LAYER TO SUPPORT POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 12Z OVER PORTIONS OF SERN OH INTO WRN WV. FARTHER W...SNOW RATES WILL DIMINISH OVER SRN WI/NRN IL BY 08-09Z AS STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. ..MEAD.. 01/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43928889 43348683 42208245 41648047 39758016 38758092 38398205 38728501 39208676 41739049 43469050 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 12:40:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 07:40:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501221242.j0MCgWDj017814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221241 NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-221845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI/NRN IND/PA/WRN NY/MD/NJ/DE/NRN VA/WV CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 221241Z - 221845Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE/SPREAD FROM THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WITH HOURLY RATES 1-2"/HR WITH LOCALLY 3"/HR POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH TO COLUMBUS TO DAYTON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS SHOW TWO DISTINCT UPPER CIRCULATION CENTERS...WITH THE MAIN FORCING FOR LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS FOCUSED OVER THE OH VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE NRN CYCLONIC CENTER NOW ENTERING CNTRL IL WILL BECOME DOMINANT...WITH A "DUMBBELLING" EFFECT EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE SRN CIRCULATION OVER NRN IND ROTATES CYCLONICALLY AROUND IT. SEVERAL FACTORS WILL COMBINE TODAY TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE IL JETSTREAK...WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE NOSE OF A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND STRONG PVA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS / 240 METER FALLS / BY 00Z. IN THE SHORTER TERM...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND NRN OH. LONGER RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LIKELY PIVOT TO A MORE WSW/ENE ORIENTATION IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPSTREAM WAVE. THIS WILL KEEP AREAS LIKE DETROIT...ANN ARBOR AND LANSING IN AN AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR AN EXTENDED TIME. FARTHER SOUTH IN WAA ZONE...FZRA WILL BE DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A DAYTON OH WHEELING WV TO PIT LINE. FZRA/FZDZ ARE BEING REPORTED FROM CVG/LHQ/CKB...AND WITH CONTINUING WAA AND SUBFREEZING SFC TEMPS...POTENTIAL FOR FZRA EXISTS. FINALLY...WAA PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD PA/MD WITH PRECIPITATION OCCURRING MAINLY ALOFT. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW BEGINNING BETWEEN 12-14Z ACROSS MD/ERN PA...AND ONCE SNOW STARTS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 8-12 HOURS OF MOD/HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS AND FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EXISTS...GIVEN RECENT LIGHTNING OBSERVED OVER OH...THAT SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH THE 2-3"/HR RANGE BY MID MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. ..TAYLOR.. 01/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 43278694 43848568 43477903 42317462 40117399 38127522 38007912 38888006 39148116 39258187 39248354 40398562 41178673 42428733 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 18:59:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 13:59:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501221901.j0MJ1I6r009864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221900 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-222330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/SE NY/CT/WRN MA/NJ/DE/ERN MD CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 221900Z - 222330Z HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND EWD AND INTENSIFY ACROSS SE NY/CT/WRN MA AND MUCH OF NJ/DE THROUGH 21Z-00Z. RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE. WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ESE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH DRY SLOT SURGING EWD ACROSS WRN PA/WRN MD AT 18Z. SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES 1000 MB SFC LOW INVOF THE OH/PA BORDER...WITH 2-3 MB/HR PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA...AN INITIAL SIGN OF MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. 12Z PIT/IAD RAOBS AUGMENTED BY REGIONAL WSR-88D VADS REFLECTIVE OF WAA REGIME AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...WITH 50-60 KTS OF SWLY FLOW PRESENT IN 1-4 KM LAYER. PROGRESSIVELY EWD FOCUS OF THIS STRONG WAA REGIME/285K-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUGGESTS MDT/HEAVY SNOW TO EXPAND EWD ACROSS SE NY/CT/WRN MA/NJ/DE PRIOR TO 00Z. GIVEN STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT...18Z RUC SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A QUICK/DEEP SATURATION OF VERTICAL COLUMN ACROSS MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR...WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIOS OF 20:1 OR HIGHER WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS. ACROSS FAR ERN MD/DE/SRN NJ...CONSISTENT WITH SFC OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LOW LEVEL WARMING OBSERVED BETWEEN 12Z-18Z WAL RAOBS...18Z BASED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INITIAL MDT/OCNLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN AROUND/AFTER 21Z. ..GUYER.. 01/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 39457694 40307643 41647610 42947548 43217451 43247355 42897200 42247160 40867208 40407381 39827433 39317476 38537578 38847683 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 00:55:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 19:55:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501230058.j0N0w2Lb004085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230057 MAZ000-MEZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-230600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MA/SRN VT/SRN NH/CT/RI/FAR SW ME AND NYC METRO CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 230057Z - 230600Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS MA/SRN NH/SRN VT/CT/RI/FAR SW ME. HOURLY RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH RATES AS HIGH AS 3.0 IN/HR DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z ALONG AND SE OF BDL-BOS AXIS. ADDITIONALLY...NELY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. AS UPPER TROUGH RACES EWD OVER THE NRN APPALACHIANS...JET EXIT REGION ASSOCIATED UPPER DIV COUPLED WITH INTENSE LOW-MID LEVEL WAA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING SNOWFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 06Z. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE VA/DE COAST...WITH ESTIMATED 999 MB LOW PER NEAR-SHORE OBS/OCEAN BUOYS AT 00Z. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC LOW WILL CONTINUALLY DEEPEN/PROGRESS NEWD TO AROUND 50-75 MILES OFF THE ERN LONG ISLAND COAST BY 06Z. AS BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS IN NRN QUADRANT OF CYCLONE...21Z RUC DIAGNOSTICS PORTRAY INCREASING MID LEVEL /800 MB-600 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVER SRN ENGLAND BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...WITH ELEVATED EPV REDUCTION ZONE OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN 00Z WAL RAOB AND OBSERVED CG LIGHTNING EARLY THIS EVENING. IN PRESENCE OF WEAK STATIC STABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED WEST-EAST ORIENTED MESOSCALE BANDING WILL PROGRESSIVELY EXIST TOWARD 06Z /CONTINUING OVERNIGHT/. GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIOS OF 20:1 OR GREATER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW EFFICIENCY. ADDITIONALLY...21Z RUC SUGGESTS ELY 850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50 KTS OR GREATER ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z...HEIGHTENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. ..GUYER.. 01/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 42076983 41357001 40967174 40897237 40847362 40987383 42197325 43087276 43677166 43687094 43467044 42677015 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 06:35:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 01:35:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501230638.j0N6c8NJ004616@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230637 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230636 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-231230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/MA/NH/RI/CT/SRN AND CNTRL VT/SRN COASTAL ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD VALID 230636Z - 231230Z VERY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AS INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT CONSOLIDATES ACROSS THE REGION. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NH/ME/MA/RI. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING SECONDARY LOW SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...WITH REMNANTS OF PRIMARY CYCLONE ACROSS NRN PA. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF OFFSHORE COLD FRONT ARE IN THE MIDDLE 50S AND THIS MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW. INTENSE UPPER DYNAMICS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE SPREADING FROM NERN PA/ERN NY ACROSS CNTRL NEW ENGLAND AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD. AS UPPER AND LOWER DYNAMICS CONVERGE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 12Z...MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO OVER 80KT AND TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE INLAND ATOP SURFACE-BASED ARCTIC AIRMASS. LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION AND MAINTAIN ROBUST FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN 600-700MB...WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF HEAVY SNOW BANDS. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ETA/RUC AGREE THAT 06-12Z SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING SNOWFALL INTO PARTS OF NH/ME WHERE BANDED RADAR RETURNS WERE CURRENTLY INCREASING. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-40 KT WINDS REDUCING VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. FARTHER INLAND...FROM ERN NY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN VT...AND NWRN MA...EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN FRONTOGENETIC BAND THROUGH 12Z...LIKELY IN EXCESS OF MODEL FCSTS. ..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 01/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... 44037350 43147493 41467487 40757044 40706882 42436772 44176911 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 12:57:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 07:57:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501231300.j0ND05vH006729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231259 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231259 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-231900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0120 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND/CT/RI/SRN AND CNTRL NH/MA/DOWNEAST ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD VALID 231259Z - 231900Z HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR. THE HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH 18Z WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI/ERN MA/COASTAL NH AND DOWNEAST ME. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED UPPER CIRCULATION NOW OVER NRN NJ. MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD CAPE COD BY 18Z. LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM BOSTON INDICATES 65 KT WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1KM...WITH 45-50 KT FROM THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM CHATHAM MA. LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW NEAR THE BENCHMARK BUOY NEAR 40N/70W WHERE PRESSURE IS 983 MB...AND PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING 2-3MB/HR OVER THE LAST 6-12 HOURS. LONG RADAR LOOPS SHOW MAIN BAND OF HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS FROM NRN NJ NE TO SRN ME. THE BAND IS CLEARLY PIVOTING...AND WILL LIKELY ASSUME A MORE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION AS UPPER LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. CURRENT BAND SEEMS TO ALIGN WELL WITH 700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL MAXIMUM AND AS THIS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHEAST...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD LESSEN FIRST ACROSS LONG ISLAND/WRN MA LATER THIS MORNING. RECENT SNOWFALL OBSERVATION FROM PROVIDENCE RI SHOWS 4 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE LAST HOUR...SO IT SEEMS 2-4 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. SNOW WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST ME THROUGH THE 2-3 HOURS. FINALLY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS OF MA WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 KT HAVE BEEN COMMON OVERNIGHT...AND WHERE PVC RECENTLY REPORTED A 58 KT GUST. ..TAYLOR.. 01/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... 45346714 44097037 42967271 41397387 40687398 40397299 41047000 42886860 44056680 44796647 45266650 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 19:01:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 14:01:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501231903.j0NJ3u0X017738@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231902 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-232230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL ME/COASTAL NH/COASTAL MA CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 231902Z - 232230Z DECREASING SNOW RATES EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF MA/NH THROUGH 21Z...ALTHOUGH VERY STRONG NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. OCNLY HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS COASTAL ME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW RATES OF 1.0 IN/HR POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN COASTAL ME THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z. 18Z ANALYSIS FEATURES INTENSE CYCLONE WITH 980 MB PRESSURE APPROX 100 MILES ESE OF ACK BASED ON BUOY 44008/SHIP REPORT FROM KHRK. VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA/SFC OBS DEPICT HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW ONGOING ACROSS CAPE COD. CURRENT TRENDS/18Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGEST HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 21Z AS CYCLONE PROGRESSES NEWD. HOWEVER VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COMPOUND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AREAS OF MA/NH. WSR-88D VADS AT GYX/BOX EACH PORTRAY 50 KT NELY WINDS AROUND 1 KM LEVEL...WITH HISTORY OF OBSERVED 50+ KT GUSTS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON INVOF CAPE COD. ACROSS COASTAL ME...ALTHOUGH EXHIBITING A DIMINISHING TREND...SW-NE ORIENTED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /600 MB-800 MB/ IN NRN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED BANDING INVOF IMMEDIATE COASTAL ME...ESPECIALLY THE ERN COAST WHERE 1 IN/HR RATES ARE MOST LIKELY. CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING TRENDS IN BUOYS OFFSHORE ERN ME...18Z BASED RUC SUGGESTS NELY WINDS OF 50-60 KTS AT 850 MB DEVELOPING INTO MUCH OF COASTAL ME THROUGH 21Z-00Z...COMPOUNDING ONGOING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ..GUYER.. 01/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX... 45126707 44736694 44356772 43986871 43696958 43027053 42517067 42077028 41956989 41686982 41416976 41147001 41377068 41817104 42807108 43557064 44246978 44746851 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 01:11:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2005 20:11:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501290114.j0T1EnZQ005274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290044 GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-290645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL / CENTRAL AND NWRN GA / SERN TN CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 290044Z - 290645Z FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HRLY LIQUID RATES OF 0.05 - 0.10 IN. WILL BE LIKELY. 00Z BHM AND FFC SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE AROUND 850 MB WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN THIS WARM NOSE AS PRECIPITATION FALLS. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S F AS OF 00Z. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT. BROAD ZONE OF LIFT DUE TO DEEP DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES SLOWLY EWD. PRECIPITATION RATES MAY BE ENHANCED LATER TONIGHT AS THERMAL GRADIENT NEAR 850 LEVEL TIGHTENS OVER GA AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INCREASES LIFT WITHIN NW-SE ORIENTED ZONE. ..JEWELL.. 01/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 32868273 32248332 32168460 32798558 33438610 34368673 35088656 35598534 34988437 33918309  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 06:19:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 01:19:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501290622.j0T6MmBn026753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290622 TNZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-SCZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-291215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTR AND ERN TN/NERN AL/NRN GA/WRN NC CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 290622Z - 291215Z SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT IS UNFOLDING WITH ICING ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05 TO .10 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH A FRESHLY INJECTED ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AS FAR SOUTH AS SRN GA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW NOW OVER NE OK WILL REACH THE MO OZARKS BY 12Z...WITH A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO SPREAD EWD. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 60 KT BETWEEN 06-12Z...REINFORCING THE WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC EVIDENT IN 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA. ISENTROPIC LIFT...PARTICULARLY STRONG WITHIN THE 294-297K LAYER...WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION. 06Z SPECIAL SOUNDING FROM NASHVILLE SHOWS SEVERAL CHANGES FROM THE 00Z SOUNDING...INCLUDING STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING. NEARLY 40KT OF SLY FLOW IS PRESENT BELOW 850MB...INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING JET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...SO ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL CAUSE SFC TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. MOST LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY BELOW FREEZING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC FREEZING LINE AT 06Z ACTUALLY EXTENDS WELL INTO ECNTRL AL THROUGH SW/CNTRL GA...AND THIS LINE WILL SAG SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS GA. HEAVIEST ICING NEXT 4-6 HOURS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED OVER NRN GA/E CNTRL AL GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS OVER CNTRL AL. ENHANCEMENT NOTED IN IR IMAGERY OVER CNTRL AL SUGGESTS STRONGER LIFT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...TRANSLATING INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. OVER FAR WRN NC...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AFTER 09-10Z AS SNOW OR SLEET GIVEN SUBFREEZING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. ..TAYLOR.. 01/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB... 35778310 36148227 36558223 36718333 36438438 36008656 34628697 32918720 31968634 32058340 32818269 34078280 35478348 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 07:01:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 02:01:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501290704.j0T74kdK008297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290704 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290703 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-291100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO/SCNTRL IL/SRN IN CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 290703Z - 291100Z ...MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ECNTRL MO/PORTIONS OF SRN AND CNTRL IL... LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS CNTRL MO/SRN IL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A MIX OF SNOW/FZRA BEING REPORTED AT THE SFC. CONTINUED LIFT INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CNTRL MO COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARM NOSE PRESENT ON STL SOUNDINGS THROUGH 08Z WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH DYNAMIC LIFT...AND SO MOST OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET/SNOW. HOWEVER...NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING WITHIN WAA REGIME...NEAR LOU TOWARD 12Z...SO SOME FZRA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN IN/NCNTRL KY AS WELL. ..TAYLOR.. 01/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 40238981 39999169 38719249 37749189 37868894 37488745 37638601 37888451 39598486 40038769 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 12:29:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 07:29:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501291232.j0TCWcg4023618@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291231 OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-291830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OH VALLEY CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 291231Z - 291830Z FREEZING RAIN WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING .05 TO .15"/HOUR WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD FROM N-CNTRL/ERN KY INTO SRN OH THIS MORNING. FARTHER NW...HOURLY SNOW RATES APPROACHING 1"/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN/E-CNTRL IL INTO SRN/CNTRL IND THROUGH MID MORNING. A GENERAL DECREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR THEREAFTER. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS SWRN MO...WITH LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE TAKING THIS FEATURE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATER TODAY. PRIMARY DOWNSTREAM REGION OF PRECIPITATION FROM MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO CNTRL/ERN KY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG SYSTEM WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF 40-50 KT LLJ /PER REGIONAL VWPS/. HERE...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT SURFACE WET BULB FREEZING LINE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING NEWD WITH MAIN ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING FROM ERN KY NWD/NWWD INTO SERN IND AND FAR SWRN OH. AS LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT CORRESPONDING REGION OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FORCING TO SHIFT EWD...MAINTAINING PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER ERN KY INTO SRN OH. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN WITH PRECIPITATION RATES OF .05-.15"/HOUR POSSIBLE. FARTHER W OVER CNTRL/SRN IL INTO SRN IND...DEFORMATION AXIS/COLD CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS SLOWLY LIFTED NWD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW... WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN OBSERVED OVER E-CNTRL IL INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN IND. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES OVER WRN/CNTRL KY APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON NOSE OF DRY SLOT RAPIDLY ADVANCING NEWD INTO REGION. WHILE OVERALL PRECIPITATION INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING OWING TO WEAKENING OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCALIZED SNOW BURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW FROM N OF SLO EWD TO NEAR BMG WHERE A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR. ..MEAD.. 01/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38788954 39648876 39888535 39848267 39328171 36668281 36688393 38088495 38048820 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 12:51:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 07:51:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501291253.j0TCrwOe030654@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291253 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-291900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN TN/ERN AL/NRN AND CNTRL GA/SC/WRN NC/SWRN VA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN/HEAVY SNOW VALID 291253Z - 291900Z SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH MOD/HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NC/SC. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF AT LEAST 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING AND DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILER DATA SHOW A VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH ELY SFC FLOW VEERING TO WLY ALOFT...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 50 KT NOTED ON 12Z NASHVILLE SOUNDING. THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AOA 50 KT AS IT SHIFTS EWD OVER KY/ERN TN/GA BY 18Z. THE MAIN UPPER LOW/VORT MAX IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...NOW OVER THE MO OZARKS. STRONG LIFT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY...BOTH THROUGH DEEP DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE AND THROUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS SLY FLOW TRANSPORTS HIGH THETA-E AIR OVER THE SUBFREEZING AIRMASS. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING GENERALLY EAST OF A MDQ/ANB/ALX LINE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS AL. HOWEVER...IR IMAGERY INDICATES BANDS OF CLOUD/PRECIP SO PERIODIC FZRA IS LIKELY ACROSS ECNTRL AL. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATES CLASSIC FZRA SETUP WITH A DEEP WARM LAYER /TEMPS AROUND 5C BETWEEN 800-900MB/. THROUGH 18Z ACROSS GA/SC...FZRA SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS/MACON/AUGUSTA. MOD/HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR FROM NERN GA INTO GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG AREA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NC...WHERE POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WITH A DEEP DENDRITIC ZONE FAVORING HEAVY SNOW. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 700-750MB WHICH MAY SUPPORT MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW. FZRA WILL BE DOMINANT OVER ERN TN...UNTIL AROUND 16-17Z WHEN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN MAY OCCUR AS TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 33-35F IN SOME LOCATIONS. FINALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN IN THE FORM OF SLEET/SNOW ACROSS SWRN VA AND THE NC PIEDMONT BY MID/LATE MORNING. ..TAYLOR.. 01/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN... 37258171 36598471 33828697 31978592 31578437 32148240 32718114 34547903 36507814 37067883 37397942 37548057 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 18:41:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 13:41:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501291844.j0TIi7aA001639@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291843 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-OHZ000-292245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA / SC / NC / VA / WV / EXTREME ERN TN CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 291843Z - 292245Z LOCALLY HEAVY SLEET / SNOW / FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HOURLY LIQUID RATES OF 0.05 - 0.10 IN. BAND OF PRECIPITATION NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN KY INTO SWRN VA AND CENTRAL NC IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AND WILL SHIFT EWD INTO CENTRAL VA / CENTRAL AND ERN NC BY 00Z. AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION...PRECIP. TYPE WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF WRN AND CENTRAL NC...BUT MAY REMAIN A MIX OVER N-CENTRAL NC WITHIN CENTER OF SURFACE RIDGE WHERE COLD AIR IS DEEPEST. THIS AREA EXTENDS NWD INTO CENTRAL VA WHERE SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED AS WELL. FARTHER S...SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST WITHIN BROAD WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALOFT. ALSO...RUC AND ETA MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SECONDARY INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION BETWEEN 21-00Z FROM FAR WRN NC ACROSS NWRN SC AND INTO NERN GA...JUST AHEAD OF DRY SLOT. THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY OCCUR FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE OVER NRN GA THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ..JEWELL.. 01/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... 38908197 38808108 38888033 38617955 38387867 38067806 37237793 36257781 35167821 34347885 34047930 33388019 32918089 32938135 33298226 33368262 33248385 33208447 33868483 34478483 34718438 35088347 35308318 36258302 36508267 37008205 37438189 37878205 38458235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 19:50:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 14:50:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501291953.j0TJrDo6000757@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291952 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291952 AZZ000-292215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291952Z - 292215Z ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT IS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW. THIS AFTERNOON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD THROUGH AZ. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WITH -26 C AT 6 KM IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7.5 TO 8 C/KM. IN ADDITION TO COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE 70+ KT UPPER JET ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING 0-6 KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. COLD MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 01/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 33771286 33811151 33810988 32980954 31951051 32501297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 00:00:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 19:00:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501300003.j0U03shP001203@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300002 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-GAZ000-300600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN GA / NRN SC / MUCH OF CENTRAL NC / SRN VA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 300002Z - 300600Z FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM EXTREME NERN GA ACROSS NRN SC...CENTRAL NC AND SRN VA. HRLY RATES UP TO 0.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST AND LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER SC / NC AND VA THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. SURFACE FREEZING LINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH AS WARM / MOIST AIR LIFTS ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER PORTIONS OF SC AND NC AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES BENEATH MID LEVEL COOLING. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY BURSTS OF FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL BE OVER SC AND NC...WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. LOCAL HOURLY RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ..JEWELL.. 01/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...FFC... 35168272 35638209 36348165 36938155 37218137 37568119 37868112 38298072 38297971 38237744 37997708 37097761 36407790 35867837 35387882 34987912 34837964 34168050 33838154 33718230 33728263 34188295 34778304 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 06:57:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 01:57:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501300700.j0U70nw0020067@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300700 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300659 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-301300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN SC/INTERIOR NC/VA/ERN WV/MD/SRN PA/SRN NJ/DE CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN/WINTER PRECIPITATION TRENDS VALID 300659Z - 301300Z FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS/PORTIONS OF VA OVERNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING. IN ADDITION...A MIX OF SLEET/FZRA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF MD/NJ/DE/WV. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER SHORTWAVE ACROSS ERN KY...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NW WV BY 12Z. COOLING CLOUD TYPES ON IR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE IS BEING REALIZED AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE AS NOTED ON 06Z SOUNDING FROM GSO WHICH WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH 30-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING MOIST HIGHER THETA-E NWD. AT THE SFC...WEDGE OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH SFC FREEZING LINE FROM NEAR ATLANTA TO NW OF CHARLESTON SC TO RAH/RIC. SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT SFC TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...MODERATE FZRA WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS/VA. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FOR GA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST UVV BEING FOCUSED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND CNTRL VA. SPECIAL 06Z SOUNDING FROM STERLING VA DID CHANGE A LITTLE FROM THE 02Z RUN...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING NOTED AROUND 850MB. SFC OBSERVATIONS FROM THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS AND MOST OF DE INDICATE FZRA AND/OR SLEET THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH IS AN INDICATION THAT THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT IS MELTING OR PARTIALLY MELTING FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT /PER 40 KT SW WINDS FROM 06Z STERLING SOUNDING /...THE TREND OF PRIMARILY FZRA WITH SLEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS AGREES WITH THE NCEP SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MOST LIKELY PTYPE USING THE BALDWIN ALGORITHM. 06Z SOUNDING FROM GSO SHOWS A DEEP WARM INVERSION...WHICH WILL ENSURE THAT FZRA WILL BE THE DOMINANT PTYPE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES/HOUR LIKELY. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FROM WRN MD/PA AND SRN NJ ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS MOSTLY LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SLEET. ..TAYLOR.. 01/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CAE...GSP... 40187523 40347762 40397826 40167955 39778030 39508043 39028024 38378050 36318167 34838305 33848160 35127858 37407553 38847405 39627376 39987429 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 12:36:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 07:36:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501301239.j0UCdHKV001783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301238 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-301645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0135 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/MD/SERN PA/SRN NJ/DE CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 301238Z - 301645Z FZRA WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ICING POSSIBLE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WOUND UP UPPER LOW RAPIDLY PROGRESSING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH TROUGH AXIS NOW EAST OF ROANOKE PER LATEST VAD WIND PROFILER DATA. THIS IS FASTER THAN THE 06Z ETA...SO PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END EARLIER THAN EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO ERN NC/SERN VA...WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO IT IS ALL RAIN. FARTHER NORTH IN NRN VA/MD/DE...PRECIPITATION WHICH HAD BEEN FZRA RAIN ALL NIGHT...HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW OR A SNOW/SLEET MIX. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM ROANOKE SHOWS WARM LAYER HAS BEEN ERODED...AND THE 12Z STERLING VA SOUNDING SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE 06Z RUN. LOCATIONS IN SRN NJ/ERN SHORE OF MD SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW WHEN COOLER MID LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. ASIDE FROM THE LEADING BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NOW EXTENDING FROM MD/ERN VA/ERN NC...THE ONLY OTHER THREAT FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE COMMA HEAD IT MOVES THROUGH. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING JUST EAST OF ROANOKE...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT NOTED ON IR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACCELERATED SO MUCH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-LATE MORNING. ..TAYLOR.. 01/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 40337522 39757778 38577810 37907756 37547651 37917581 38187461 39417406 40467401 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 12:50:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 07:50:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501301253.j0UCr7dD006311@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301252 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/NERN NM INTO THE OK AND NRN TX PNHDLS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 301252Z - 301845Z SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES APPROACHING 1-1.5 INCHES/HOUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WIDESPREAD EWD ALONG THE RATON MESA INTO THE WRN OK AND NWRN TX PNHDLS. CLOSED...MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NWRN NM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT TRANSLATES EWD INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR ABQ EWD ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE INTO THE TX PNHDL WHERE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT /OWING TO COUPLING OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WAA AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT/ IS OCCURRING. SNOW LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LVS TO DHT AS OF 12Z MAY TEND TO DEVELOP SWD WITH TIME AS THE STRONG ASCENT AND MELTING EFFECTS COOL VERTICAL COLUMN. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO NERN NM HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.5 C/KM OBSERVED IN THE 12Z AMA SOUNDING SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CO-LOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND SATURATION OF THAT PORTION OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAVORING DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH. THROUGH 18Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...POSSIBLY EWD ALONG THE RATON MESA WHERE HOURLY SNOW RATES COULD APPROACH 1-2 INCHES/HOUR. EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW TO ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WIDESPREAD EWD INTO THE NRN TX AND OK PNHDLS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM SLOWLY SPREADS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ..MEAD.. 01/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35750593 37020585 38500554 38620460 37870381 37250265 37040144 35990142 35480225 35290442 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 12:47:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 07:47:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501011249.j01CnMGQ015963@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011248 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-011645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN HALF OF IA / CENTRAL AND SRN MN / EXTREME WRN WI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 011248Z - 011645Z FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS IA INTO MN AND WRN WI. HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05 - 0.10 IN ARE EXPECTED. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD ON SWLY LOW LEVEL JET...WHILE SUB FREEZING AIR REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. BAND OF FREEZING RAIN OVER CENTRAL IA AT 1230Z IS COINCIDENT WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND 850 MB AND WILL SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME INTO SRN MN AND SWRN WI. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 850 TO 700 MB WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EVENTUAL SATURATION OF AIR MASS AND DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL NW-SE ORIENTED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE TYPE OVER IA...CHANGING TO SLEET FARTHER N INTO MN AND WRN WI. 12Z MPX RAOB SHOWS DEEP SUB FREEZING LAYER ABOUT 4000 FT DEEP BELOW 850 WARM NOSE WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR SLEET. BY THE END OF THE MD PERIOD...HEAVY SNOW MAY BE IN PROGRESS W OF MPX...IN THE ALEXANDRIA VICINITY. ..JEWELL.. 01/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 41719164 41479187 41799294 42039364 42449462 43349494 44109531 44949556 45769548 45889490 45159280 44469150 43799052 43549039 43109054 42239112 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 13:24:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 08:24:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501011326.j01DQ21a025656@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011325 MNZ000-NDZ000-011730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN ND / NWRN MN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 011325Z - 011730Z SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NRN AND ERN ND AND WILL DEVELOP INTO NWRN MN BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 - 1.5 IN / HR APPEAR LIKELY. 12Z BIS RAOB SATURATED UP TO ABOUT 500 MB WITH FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH BETWEEN 700 AND 550 MB. CONTINUED THETA-E ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN AFOREMENTIONED 700-550 LAYER SHIFTING EWD WITH TIME INTO ERN ND AND NWRN MN. ..JEWELL.. 01/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 47400056 47430122 47590207 48280239 49010244 49019784 49009652 48089565 47549520 46789555 46769686 47299903 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 18:31:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 13:31:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501011833.j01IXtLN023465@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011832 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-012330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SERN SD...CENTRAL/SRN MN AND WRN/CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 011832Z - 012330Z FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION OF SLEET IS ANTICIPATED FROM PORTIONS OF WCENTRAL/SWRN MN NEWD INTO WCENTRAL WI THROUGH 00Z...WITH STEADY MODERATE FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING FROM FAR SERN SD/NWRN IA INTO NCENTRAL IA/FAR SCENTRAL MN. IN BOTH AREAS...HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.10-0.15 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT ICE/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS BY 00Z. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER NWRN KS AT 18Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO SERN NEB BY 00Z. DIURNAL AFFECTS HAVE LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA. BACKING 850-700 MB FLOW JET EVIDENT ON REGIONAL VWP/S OVER THE LAST 2-3 HOURS COMBINED WITH INCREASED FRONTAL SLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION OVER NWRN IA/SERN SD AND SWRN MN THROUGH 20Z BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL MN/WCENTRAL WI BY 00Z. MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BENEATH LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS OVER SERN SD/NWRN IA AND SWRN MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ENEWD INTO NCENTRAL IA/CENTRAL MN AND EVENTUALLY WCENTRAL WI THOUGH 00Z. FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FAVORING HVY ACCUMULATIONS. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DELINEATION OF THE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LINE IS DIFFICULT TO FCST...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND ANTICIPATION OF NWD MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LINE THOUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THAT THERMO PROFILES WILL FAVOR SLEET OVER MOST OF SRN/CENTRAL MN AND WCENTRAL WI...WITH FREEZING RAIN THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE OVER NWRN/NCENTRAL IA AND EXTREME SERN MN. ..CROSBIE.. 01/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 45649272 45529638 44519743 43149692 42749554 42589453 42789238 43419099 44149028 45559118 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 18:47:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 13:47:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501011849.j01InTtf028898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011845 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011845 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-012245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IA...SRN WI AND PORTIONS OF NRN IL CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 011845Z - 012245Z A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AFTERNOON...WITH DEVELOPMENT INTO SCENTRAL WI AND NRN IL THROUGH 21Z. HRLY ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE FROM 0.05-0.10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL ADVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN WEAKER THAN FARTHER NORTH THUS EXPECT OVERALL LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THAN ACROSS FAR NRN IA/MN AND CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND COMBINED WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MUCAPES FROM 50-150 J/KG ...WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. AN EARLIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN IA INTO SWRN WI HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT SATURATION SO THAT ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE EFFICIENT IN REACHING THE GROUND. LOW LEVEL WAA WILL LEAD TO NWD MOVEMENT OF THE SFC FREEZING LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE SFC LOW MVMNT WILL BE ENEWD INTO SERN NEB AND WET-BULB EFFECTS WILL BE OCCURRING...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT THE SFC FREEZING LINE WILL MOVE MUCH NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH 00Z. OVER SCENTRAL WI/NRN IL WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS NOT FALLEN MUCH TODAY...A DELAY IN LOW-MID LEVEL SATURATION SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SLEET AS THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF ONSET OF PRECIP. PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE IMMEDIATE CHI METRO AREA...WHERE NELY WINDS OFF LK MI SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. ..CROSBIE.. 01/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43689076 42909326 42199377 41679346 41259186 41119084 41118952 41298867 41818767 43488808 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 19:04:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 14:04:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501011906.j01J67k3001306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011901 MNZ000-WIZ000-NDZ000-020000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NRN MN AND FAR NWRN WI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 011901Z - 020000Z MOD-HVY SNOW WITH HRLY ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1-2 IN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM CENTRAL ND INTO ERN ND...NRN MN AND FAR NWRN WI...OR ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AXIS FROM FAR TO BRD TO HYR THROUGH 00Z. INCREASING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN ND/SD. REGIONAL VWP/PROFILERS INDICATE INCREASING SELY COMPONENT OF MID LVL WINDS ACROSS SRN MN SOUTH OF MID LEVEL FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL AID IN CONTINUED ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ACROSS ERN ND INTO NWRN WI THROUGH 00Z. A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN THE -14 TO -18 DEG C RANGE IN THIS LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. ADDITIONALLY...AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER OF -3 TO 8 DEG C CENTERED AROUND 800 MB WILL SUPPORT AGGREGATION. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7 DEG C/KM FROM 600-500 MB ALONG WITH HIGH SNOW-LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATIOS OF 20-30:1 DUE TO GROUND TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WILL SUPPORT HRLY SNOWFALL RATES ABOVE 1 INCH WITHIN THE HEAVIEST E-W SNOW BANDS AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS... 48839515 49029848 48790084 47790107 46369948 46239713 45829476 45699368 45479203 46499079 48008978 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 00:20:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 19:20:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501020022.j020MCdD004189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020021 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-020615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NCNTRL/NERN IA...MUCH OF WI...FAR NRN IL AND MUCH OF LOWER MI/SRN UPPER MI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 020021Z - 020615Z SIGNIFICANT ICE/SLEET EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WHILE PROGRESSING ENEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE WRN/NRN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH 06Z. TWO CORRIDORS OF HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. ONE AXIS IS ANTICIPATED TO EXTEND FROM NCNTRL/NERN IA NEWD ACROSS SERN MN...CENTRAL/NERN WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI. THE OTHER AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCENTRAL WI EWD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI. IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS...ISOLATED 0.15 TO 0.25 IN/HR LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION RATES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LVL JET MAX ROTATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF WRN KS/NEB. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET HAS ALREADY ENHANCED CLOUD TOP COOLING ON IR IMAGERY OVER WRN IA/SWRN MN AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS. AS THE UPPER JET MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD...IT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEWD ENHANCEMENT OF ALREADY MODERATE TO STRONG LIFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NRN JET MAX OVER THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT BOUNDARY. THUS A DEEP LAYER OF VERTICAL MOTION WILL EXTEND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONTAL TRACK FROM NCENTRAL IA NEWD INTO NCENTRAL WI THROUGH 06Z. THE TRANSITION ZONE FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THIS REGION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THUS A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE. STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL EXIST FROM NCENTRAL IA NEWD INTO NCENTRAL WI/WRN U.P OF MI THROUGH 06Z. ELSEWHERE...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD INTO SERN MN THROUGH 06Z...THE SFC FREEZING LINE IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT NWD TO A ALO TO MSN TO MKE LINE BY 06Z. THUS FREEZING RAIN OVER ERN IA/FAR NRN IL AND FAR SRN WI WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTH/NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FARTHER ENE...A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN A SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET OVER MUCH OF ECENTRAL WI THROUGH 02Z AND WRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI THROUGH 03Z. WELL REMOVED FROM THE SFC LOW DRY ELY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE SFC FREEZING ISOTHERM BEFORE AND AFTER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI. INITIAL PRECIPITATION OVER ECENTRAL WI EWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE FORM OF SLEET DUE TO THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE HEELS OF A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET/SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY AIDING IN MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER ERN IA/WRN IL WILL AID IN QUICK SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM SW-NE FROM 02-06Z. COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...MUCAPES FROM 100-300 J/KG...MODERATE TO HVY FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION BETWEEN 02-06Z. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GIVEN CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION WILL REACH A JXN TO HTL LINE BY 06Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 46119001 46188721 45658586 44888475 44258404 43428350 42588355 42338420 42208600 41888777 41859080 42389303 42889359 43719385 45219321 45699205 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 00:52:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 19:52:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501020054.j020sJse014227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020053 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-020600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN ND...NRN MN...FAR NWRN WI/WRN U.P OF MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 020053Z - 020600Z HVY SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVER FAR NERN ND...NWRN MN THROUGH 03Z...WHILE DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS FAR NWRN WI AND THE WRN U.P OF MI DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. HRLY ACCUMULATION IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NERN MN/FAR NWRN WI/WRN U.P OF MI REGION WHERE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NNEWD ACROSS ERN SD/SERN ND. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...MODERATE TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT W-E ORIENTED HVY SNOW BANDS ACROSS NRN MN AND FAR NERN ND FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS BEFORE VERTICAL MOTION DIMINISHES RAPIDLY WITH NWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE DRY SLOT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS NERN MN/FAR NWRN WI...STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER COINCIDENT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT HVY SNOWFALL EWD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S WILL SUPPORT 20:1 SNOW/WATER RATIOS. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 LAYER SUPPORTING A DEEP AGGREGATE ZONE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN HRLY SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH EWD INTO THE FAR WRN U.P. OF MI. AS THE UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD...HVY SNOW SHOULD END OVER NERN MN/FAR NWRN WI BETWEEN 03-06Z AND OVER THE WRN U.P. OF MI SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ..CROSBIE.. 01/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...FGF... 48489304 48979540 49079899 48049916 47889719 47809540 46579297 46369199 46109029 46388914 47038828 47438778 47958946 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 06:07:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 01:07:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501020609.j0269JPF019900@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020608 MIZ000-WIZ000-021015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI / UP OF MI / CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 020608Z - 021015Z SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER NRN LOWER MI...EXTREME NERN WI...AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL UP OF MI. HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.05 - 0.15 IN WILL BE LIKELY. SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE OVER THE UP OF MI...WITH HRLY ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1.00 IN. BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FEED MOISTURE NWD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FREEZING LINE IS MOVING NWD WITH AXIS OF WARM AIR ACROSS ERN WI / LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SHORT AROUND GREEN BAY WI...SEWD INTO MUSKEGON MI. THE HEAVIEST ICING WILL BE FARTHER N WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S F WILL ALLOW FOR LONGER DURATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION RATES LOCALLY WITH HRLY RATES AROUND 0.15 IN. ..JEWELL.. 01/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB... 44028371 43868395 43648359 44038292 43728267 42998248 42458385 42498452 43048525 43358573 43668620 44058653 44818745 44868829 44718874 45938896 46978916 47528791 46838518 46538420 46088400 45228327 44428323 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 12:12:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 07:12:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501021214.j02CEsmQ024188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021214 MIZ000-021415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 021214Z - 021415Z FREEZING RAIN...MIXED WITH SOME SLEET AND SNOW...WILL END BY 1400/1430Z ACROSS THE NERN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AT 12Z...A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION STRETCHED FROM NEAR HTL SWWD TO NEAR MKG AND WAS MOVING ENEWD AT 45 KT. THIS CURRENT MOTION WOULD PUSH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EAST OF MI BY 14Z. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF LOWER MI...WITH MID AND UPPER 40S LOCATED ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE AND WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS AIDED IN SHIFTING THE FREEZING LINE NEWD. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING AS THE HEAVIER WINTER PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FROM NEAR MBS TO HTL TO OSC. THE STRONG WARMING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RAISE READINGS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REST OF NERN LOWER MI WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT COMING TO AN END BY 1430Z. ..IMY.. 01/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 44428539 45158334 44678327 43728386 43788526 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 15:31:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 10:31:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501021533.j02FXRFD016816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021525 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021524 VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-022000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0924 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NY...NCENTRAL/NERN PA...WRN VT...AND FAR WRN MA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 021524Z - 022000Z SLEET MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO INTO NRN NY AND NWRN VT THROUGH 20Z. ADDITIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL END ACROSS SCENTRAL NY/NCENTRAL PA THROUGH 17Z...WHILE DEVELOPING EWD INTO FAR NERN PA...ECENTRAL/SERN NY...SWRN VT AND FAR WRN MA BETWEEN 17-20Z. HIGHEST ACCUMULATION RATES WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY...WHERE HRLY AMTS OF 0.05-0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 17-20Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SFC FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM FAR WRN NY SEWD INTO NRN NJ AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MOST QUICKLY OVER WRN NY. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH MDT THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER OVER SCENTRAL NY/NCENTRAL PA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AROUND 30 KTS. COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE MID 30S...THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END OVER THIS AREA BY 17Z. FARTHER NE...DRIER AIR OVER ERN/NRN NY AND WRN VT/FAR WRN MA WILL SUPPORT SLEET AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP AS STRONG ELEVATED WAA OCCURS BENEATH SLOWLY SATURATING SFC-850 MB LAYER. DEGREE OF WAA WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER PRECIP RATES OVER NRN NY INTO NWRN VT WITH PRECIP RATES UP TO 0.10 IN/HR POSSIBLE FROM 17-20Z. EVENTUALLY THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED WARMING...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION...WILL SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER FROM SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN FROM W-E ACROSS NRN/ERN NY THROUGH 20Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 44807506 45017247 44047264 42657305 41767396 41677690 42627700 43327658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 19:14:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 14:14:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501021916.j02JGMwU025396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021908 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-022345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN NY...WRN/CENTRAL MA...MOST OF VT/NH AND ME CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 021908Z - 022345Z A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH 00Z. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH ERN ME BY 00Z. SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE OVER NRN/CENTRAL ME...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER NRN NY...NRN VT/NRN NH INTO MUCH OF SRN ME...WHERE HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATION RATES FROM 0.05-0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH OVER ECENTRAL NY...SRN VT/NH AND WRN/CNTRL MA...LESSER HRLY AMOUNTS FROM 0.01-0.05 INCH WILL OCCUR. RECENT VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD DECK IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE EWD IN A STRONG WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA/ERN GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER MIXED PRECIP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA...WHERE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAKER...AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE ONSET AND DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION. FURTHER NORTH...THE DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGH 700 MB COMBINED WITH STRONGER MID LVL DEFORMATION WILL SUPPORT HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ONCE LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS. IN BOTH AREAS...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS BENEATH ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SLEET. AS LOW LEVEL SATURATION ENSUES...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...PTYPE WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT SFC TEMP AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF ACCUMULATING SLEET WILL BEGIN OVER NH/SRN ME AND CNTRL MA BY 22Z...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FROM SW-NE OVER VT AND WRN MA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. AS LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES UPSTREAM...A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/ERN NY IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL ME...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL WAA WILL ENHANCE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO NRN ME BETWEEN 20-22Z....PROMOTING MDT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR HVY SNOW WILL BE THE NECESSARY SATURATION IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER AND OVERALL MODEST MID LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS...SNOW/WATER RATIOS OF 20:1 WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 IN/HR RATES IN THE MDT SNOWFALL. ..CROSBIE.. 01/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 47086822 45226883 44176939 42827130 42717339 43337550 44947501 45117139 47176944  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 00:18:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 19:18:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501030019.j030JwMh004971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030019 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-030545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0619 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY...VT/NH...MUCH OF ME...NCENTRAL MA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 030019Z - 030545Z SLEET OVER PORTIONS OF NRN NH/SRN ME WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 06Z...WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF VT...SRN NH AND FAR NCENTRAL MA. HRLY ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.10 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP BANDS THROUGH 06Z. FARTHER NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN ME...EXPECT SNOW TO CHANGE OVER SLEET BETWEEN 03-06Z WITH SIMILAR LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATION RATES. SECONDARY ISENTROPICALLY GENERATED PRECIPITATION BAND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ERN QUEBEC UPPER JET MAX WILL AID IN PROGRESSIVE MVMNT OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 06Z. CONTINUED WAA IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER WILL AID IN A CHANGE OF PTYPE OVER MUCH OF NRN NH/SRN ME FROM SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 03Z...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET NORTH OF THIS REGION ACROSS ERN/CENTRAL ME. AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT...EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NERN NY/NWRN VT THROUGH 02Z AND OVER SRN VT/SRN NH AND NCENTRAL MA BETWEEN 02-05Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 42847078 42517207 42737278 43567337 44077394 44607394 44957358 45227110 46277005 46086762 44786718 43617012 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 01:01:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 20:01:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501030103.j0313a7w019283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030102 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-030500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN OK...MUCH OF KS...FAR SCENTRAL/SERN NEB...SCENTRAL/SERN IA AND NCENTRAL MO CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 030102Z - 030500Z FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NCNTRL MO...SCNTRL/SERN IA THROUGH 05Z...WITH LIGHT TO MDT FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CURRENT SFC WET-BULB FREEZING LINE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN OK PANHANDLE/FAR NWRN OK NEWD TO THE KC METRO AREA DURING THE 02Z-06Z TIME FRAME. HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES AROUND 0.05 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A DEVELOPING LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT PRECIPITATION OVER ECENTRAL/NERN NM AHEAD OF EJECTING CENTRAL NM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD...LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/DEEP GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN/CENTRAL OK...AIDED BY BACKED FLOW IN THE 850 MB LAYER EVIDENT REGIONAL VWP/S AND PROFILER DATA...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT NWD FROM WRN OK INTO MUCH OF KS. HOWEVER...VRY DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS SEEN ON THE 00Z DDC/TOP SOUNDING WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE STEADIER/MDT PRECIPITATION RATES CAN DEVELOP. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE THIS OCCUR THROUGH 04Z WILL BE FROM SWRN KS ENEWD INTO NCENTRAL KS/FAR SCENTRAL NEB WHERE STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DUE TO AN INCREASING DEFORMATION OF THE PREEXISTING MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OCCURS. AS PRECIPITATION OCCURS IN THIS BAND...IT IS LIKELY TO START OUT AS SLEET DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LAYER BELOW THE STRONG MID LEVEL FORCED LAYER. BUT AS SATURATION OCCURS...DEPTH OF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER /100 MB/ WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF W-E BANDS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THIS REGION BETWEEN 04-06Z. OTHERWISE...FORCING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE BELOW DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER INITIALLY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT INITIAL SLEET FALL. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT CURRENT FALLING TRENDS IN DEWPTS ALONG WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF COLD AIRMASS AND WET BULB EFFECTS OF PRECIPITATION...THAT THE FREEZING LINE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH 06Z. FARTHER NE...AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN KS CONTINUES TO LIFT ENE ACROSS MO...ELEVATED WAA/LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MDT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NCENTRAL MO INTO SCENTRAL/SERN IA. ..CROSBIE.. 01/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 39970040 38240142 37020074 36759969 36809881 37219777 38459579 39419447 39969292 40219184 40969139 41249326 40599659 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 05:20:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 00:20:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501030522.j035MWdo016531@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030521 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030521 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-030945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF E CENTRAL / NRN KS...SERN NEBRASKA...NWRN MO CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 030521Z - 030945Z FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF KS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING NEWD INTO SERN NEBRASKA AND NWRN MO. HRLY RATES OF 0.05-0.10 WILL BE LIKELY...WITH HEAVIER RATES LOCALLY UP TO 0.25 IN. PERSISTENT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY BRINGING WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD INTO KS...WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING NW OF A ICT TO EMP TO TOP LINE. MODELS INDICATE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH FORCING STRONGEST OVER E CENTRAL KS IN THE SLN/EMP/EWK VICINITY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER S CENTRAL KS...AND SEEMS TO BE CORRELATED WELL WITH RUC 850 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. EXPECT HRLY PRECIPITATION RATES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 0.10 IN/HR...WITH STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING UP TO 0.25 IN/HR FZRA RATES OVER E CENTRAL KS. FARTHER N...FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.10 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY INTO NRN KS AND SERN NEBRASKA WHERE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DECREASES. FORCING WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO NRN MO WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SWLY. ..JEWELL.. 01/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 40709581 40289514 40139460 39789424 39589438 39279487 39049560 38339588 37959637 37639742 37369852 38259893 38759980 39499982 40169932 40569826 40889716 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 06:00:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 01:00:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501030602.j0362odU030200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030602 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030601 CAZ000-031000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL RANGE IN SRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 030601Z - 031000Z SNOW RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH HRLY RATES AROUND 2 IN BEFORE 12Z. INCREASING DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND COOLING MID LEVELS WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOWFALL ABOVE 4500-5000 FT MSL. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE TOWARDS MORNING WHEN SELY LOW LEVEL JET AND UPSLOPE IS STRONGEST. ..JEWELL.. 01/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX... 34451901 34571954 34782001 35002000 34931925 34911906 34751857 34491768 34131773 34151806 34341867 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 12:40:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 07:40:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501031242.j03Cg7S3001100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031241 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-031645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS / SERN NEBRASKA / NRN MO / SRN IA / EXTREME NWRN IL CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 031241Z - 031645Z MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL SHIFT NEWD OUT OF KS INTO IA MO AND NRN IL. HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.10-0.20 IN WILL BE LIKELY. WEAK VORT MAX NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN PROFILER DATA NOW MOVING ACROSS NERN KS HELPING TO FOCUS ZONE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 0.20 IN NOTED LAST FEW HOURS OVER ERN KS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY ENEWD...AND WILL CAUSE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ZONE WITHIN 850-700 MB LAYER TO SHIFT ENEWD AS WELL AS WINDS VEER IN THIS LAYER. BY 15Z...MAIN FORCING SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER NRN MO / SRN IA...WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. 12Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWS SLEET PROFILE AND ICE PELLETS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER SERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...WITH TOPEKA RAOB SHOWING A SOLID FREEZING RAIN PROFILE WITH ABOUT 130 MUCAPE. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF DEEP FRONTAL ZONE...SLEET WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IA...MIXING WITH AND TURNING TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN SWD INTO NRN MO. PRECIPITATION MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. PRECIPITATION TYPE FCST A BIT LESS CERTAIN OVER NRN IL AS STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES BY 18Z. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL ASSUMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING. ..JEWELL.. 01/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 38379625 38279680 38999658 39669658 40499666 40999630 41739490 42109314 42309202 42529071 42508856 42098817 41898899 41599037 40509145 40009216 39439480 39309582 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 17:52:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 12:52:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501031753.j03HrvOs000368@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031753 MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-032300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA/FAR NERN MO...PORTIONS OF NRN IL/SRN WI AND CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 031753Z - 032300Z A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ERN IA/NERN MO...NRN IL AND FAR SRN WI THROUGH 21Z. FARTHER EAST...A MIX OF SLEET AND MODERATE/POSSIBLY HVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN MI FROM 20-00Z. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING WILL LIMIT SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION. HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES UP TO 0.15 IN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA/FAR NERN MO INTO FAR NRN IL THROUGH 20Z. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD INDICATIVE OF CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SLEET/ICE EVENT OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC ASCENT DUE TO COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AREA AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A REFLECTION OF THE STRONG MID/UPPER LIFT WITH A NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROUGH OVER WRN IL AT 17Z. THE SFC FREEZING LINE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT EXTENDING FROM NEAR IRK NEWD TO THE NRN CHICAGO SUBURBS. QUICK CESSATION OF VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD W-E AND AID IN RAPID DIMINISHMENT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MI DURING THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. THUS...DESPITE RECENT RISE OF TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT WILL AID IN HVY SNOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID LEVELS AND PRECIPITATION FALL/WET-BULB EFFECTS /CURRENT DEWPTS NEAR 30/...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO COOL THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR A 1-2 HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HVY SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-96 CORRIDOR DURING THE 20-00Z PERIOD. ..CROSBIE.. 01/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN... 43078794 42628953 42459049 42079120 41209162 40419183 39999162 40349075 41029027 41638952 42208793 42488581 42428370 42878294 43328325 43488481 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 18:24:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 13:24:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501031826.j03IQVXw018906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031825 CAZ000-032330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CST MON JAN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MTN OF SRN CA...SRN SIERRA NEVADA CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 031825Z - 032330Z HVY SNOW OVER SAN GABRIEL MTNS OF SRN CA ABOVE 4000 FT WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THROUGH 20Z...WITH HVY SNOW DIMINISHING OVER THE SAN GABRIEL AND SAN DIEGO CTY MTNS ABOVE 5000 FT BETWEEN 20-22Z. HRLY ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THESE TIMES. FARTHER NORTH...HVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE KERN COUNTY MTNS AND SRN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 00Z. HOURLY ACCUMULATION ON SOUTH FACING SLOPES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. DOUBLE BARRELED UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A LEAD TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN A WELL DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION AREA OVER SRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CA. STRONG CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HVY SNOWFALL OVER THE MTNS OF SRN CA THROUGH 20-22Z TIME. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH EVIDENT BY RECENT KVTX VWP DATA AND SAT TRENDS INDICATE THAT FOCUSED CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER INLAND OVER THE HIGH DESERT AND SRN SIERRA NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM AROUND 4000 FT IN THE NRN SAN GABRIEL MTNS TO AROUND 5000 FT IN THE MTNS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY SHOULD FALL SLIGHTLY AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE. FARTHER NORTH...AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE HIGH DESERT AND SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...EXPECT HVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SRN SIERRA NEVADA/KERN COUNTY MTNS ABOVE 4000 FT. DEEP/MODERATE SSELY FLOW WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO VERTICAL MOTION AND 2 IN/HR RATES ON S/SE FACING SLOPES. AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SLOWLY OFF THE CA COAST...THE SRN SIERRA NV IS LIKELY TO BE THE LOCATION OF A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. THUS...THERE EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED 1-2 IN/HR HVY SNOW EVENT WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 01/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX... 32891667 32861687 34081792 34491887 34711945 35041908 35581879 36361911 36881954 37201959 37561900 36721821 35521798 34911853 34371768 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 00:51:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 19:51:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501040053.j040qxQN025766@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040052 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040051 NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-040615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST MON JAN 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL AND SW UT...NRN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 040051Z - 040615Z HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR AND OCCASIONAL 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN LIKELY FROM OVER AZ...GENERALLY ALONG THE RIM THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SW UT AND ALSO W AND SW NM. HEAVIEST SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY ABOVE 7000 FT...LOWERING TO 6000-6500 FT LATER TONIGHT FROM NW AZ INTO SWRN UT. AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CA COAST WILL CONTINUE SEWD TONIGHT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ARE EJECTING NEWD INTO THE SWRN STATES. ONE SUCH FEATURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SWRN AZ. DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW AND ADVECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NWD INTO PARTS OF AZ...NM AND UT. MOREOVER...THIS DEEP MOIST SLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SWD FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM W/SW NM THROUGH NRN AZ AND INTO SW UT. THE VERTICAL MOTION ACCOMPANYING THE NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVES IN THE PRESENCE OF MOIST OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EWD...COOLING ALOFT MAY ENHANCE LAPSE RATES AND LOWER SNOW ELEVATIONS FROM W TO E. SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW ENHANCEMENT MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. ..DIAL.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...SLC...VEF... 34321149 35431312 36661381 37831353 38911244 38931130 38331074 36971155 35841138 35061043 35020925 35590768 34700697 33480791 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 06:18:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 01:18:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501040620.j046KB2O001002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040619 OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-041215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO / WRN KS / EXTREME NWRN OK CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 040619Z - 041215Z FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z FROM FAR NWRN OK ACROSS SWRN KS INTO ERN CO. MAXIMUM HRLY RATES UP TO 0.05 IN EXPECTED. BROAD AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION BETWEEN 850-700 MB WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD FREEZING RAIN PROFILES WITH ONLY SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER AT THE SURFACE. CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AS OF 06Z OVER WRN OK / NW TX EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIFT NWD INTO FAR NWRN OK WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER ERN CO AND WRN KS. FORECAST RUC AND ETA SOUNDINGS SATURATE PROFILES BETWEEN 10-12 Z W OF A DDC-GLD LINE...BUT THIS MAY OCCUR SOONER ESPECIALLY FROM SERN CO INTO NWRN OK GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ..JEWELL.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU... 39290363 39730261 39610108 38750012 37789989 36619948 36530001 36660071 36820121 37050193 38020364 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 12:55:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 07:55:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501041257.j04Cv69h014869@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041255 KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-041800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NE / MUCH OF WRN AND SRN KS / NWRN OK / EXTREME NERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 041255Z - 041800Z WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATION WILL FALL OVER NWRN OK AND SOUTHERN KS...WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND 0.05 IN. FARTHER N...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE LIKELY INTO NWRN KS...CHANGING TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW OVER SWRN NEBRASKA. ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 850 FRONT WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...FROM THE TX PANHANDLE ENEWD ACROSS NRN OK AND INTO SERN KS / SWRN MO. 12Z DDC RAOB SHOWS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850-700 MB...WHICH WHEN WET-BULBED WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EVEN WHEN SATURATED. FARTHER S...AMA AND OUN RAOBS EXHIBIT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH HRLY PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 0.05 IN...OCCASIONAL HEAVY BURSTS OF 0.10-0.20 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED OVER NWRN OK AND FAR SRN KS. FARTHER N INTO NWRN KS AND SWRN NEBRASKA...SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE LIKELY...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.50-1.00 IN/HR. ..JEWELL.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...SGF...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA... 36530119 36220057 35910005 35799969 35799907 35919859 36399824 36789779 37259692 37419559 37689497 37849597 38099650 38529717 39119863 40439938 41299958 41630048 41380187 40980188 40050188 38330189 36730153 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 13:04:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 08:04:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501041306.j04D6icC018652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041305 KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-041800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NE / MUCH OF WRN AND SRN KS / NWRN OK / EXTREME NERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 041305Z - 041800Z WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATION WILL FALL OVER NWRN OK AND SOUTHERN KS...WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND 0.05 IN. FARTHER N...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE LIKELY INTO NWRN KS...CHANGING TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW OVER SWRN NEBRASKA. ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 850 FRONT WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...FROM THE TX PANHANDLE ENEWD ACROSS NRN OK AND INTO SERN KS / SWRN MO. 12Z DDC RAOB SHOWS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850-700 MB...WHICH WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EVEN WHEN SATURATED. FARTHER S...AMA AND OUN RAOBS EXHIBIT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH HRLY PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 0.05 IN...OCCASIONAL HEAVY BURSTS OF 0.10-0.20 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED OVER NWRN OK AND FAR SRN KS. FARTHER N INTO NWRN KS AND SWRN NEBRASKA...SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE LIKELY...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.50-1.00 IN/HR. ..JEWELL.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...SGF...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA... 36530119 36220057 35910005 35799969 35799907 35919859 36399824 36789779 37259692 37419559 37689497 37849597 38099650 38529717 39119863 40439938 41299958 41630048 41380187 40980188 40050188 38330189 36730153 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 18:02:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 13:02:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501041803.j04I3x8x023781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041802 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-042300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK...MUCH OF KS...NRN MO...SRN IA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 041802Z - 042300Z SIGNIFICANT ICING...WITH GLAZE AMOUNTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1/2 INCH IN A FEW HOURS...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A SWATH FROM NWRN OK/SRN KS...SPREADING ENEWD INTO ERN KS AND WRN/SWRN MO THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS BEING MAINTAINED WITHIN LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT WAS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD FROM DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS FUELING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ATOP SUBFREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE POCKETS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDE WITH STRONG INFLUX OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SCNTRL TX. ZONE OF ASCENT...AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET...ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD FROM SRN KS INTO WRN MO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CLASSIC MDT TO HVY FREEZING RAIN SOUNDINGS...SATURATED 850MB WARM NOSE AND BELOW 0C SFC WET BULB TEMPS...ARE FORECAST IN A BAND FROM ICT TO MCI TO IRK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF UP TO 0.25 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED NEAR CONVECTION LATE THIS MORNING OVER NWRN/NRN OK AND SRN KS. EXPECT THIS HEAVY ICING TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD GRADUALLY ENEWD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH TREACHEROUS TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES RESULTING WITHIN THE CORE OF HEAVIEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS. A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF THE FREEZING RAIN AXIS...FROM CNTRL KS INTO NRN MO AND WRN IA THROUGH 00Z. ..CARBIN.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37099769 36759884 36490021 36560089 36880139 37090146 37530132 37930032 38489921 38759852 39009800 39289738 40539484 41049305 40829126 40289133 39219251 37749517 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 18:03:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 13:03:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501041805.j04I5eYr025022@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041804 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NRN AND ERN NEB...WRN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 041804Z - 050000Z FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW IN AN EXTENDED WINTER STORM EVENT WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF NERN NEB...SERN SD...AND WRN IA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL LOCALLY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER CA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER FROM THE ROCKIES EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ROTATING OUT OF STRONG WRN TROUGH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT IN A WEST-EAST SWATH ACROSS NEB/SD. THIS LIFT MAY TEND TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EWD TOWARD DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE. NONETHELESS... HEAVY SNOW...POSSIBLY OCCURRING IN ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE BANDS... WILL OCCUR WHERE STRONGEST SLOPED ASCENT WITHIN MID/UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION COINCIDES WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP SATURATED AIRMASS WITH ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN THE -12C TO -17C RANGE WILL EXIST ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN VERY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS MAY RESULT IN GREATER SNOWFALL RATES DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. SLEET/ICE PELLETS MAY INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NEB AND WRN IA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...COOLING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IN THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HEAVIER SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MO RIVER AND INTO WRN/SWRN IA AFTER 20Z. ..CARBIN.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 40639580 40559712 40639845 40910022 41640101 42680135 43420063 43539914 43249732 42779540 42559466 42179408 41419395 41019477 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 18:04:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 13:04:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501041806.j04I6gJZ025540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041802 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-042300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK...MUCH OF KS...NRN MO...SRN IA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 041802Z - 042300Z SIGNIFICANT ICING...WITH GLAZE AMOUNTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1/2 INCH IN A FEW HOURS...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A SWATH FROM NWRN OK/SRN KS...SPREADING ENEWD INTO ERN KS AND WRN/SWRN MO THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS BEING MAINTAINED WITHIN LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT WAS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD FROM DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS FUELING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ATOP SUBFREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE POCKETS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDE WITH STRONG INFLUX OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SCNTRL TX. ZONE OF ASCENT...AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET...ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD FROM SRN KS INTO WRN MO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CLASSIC MDT TO HVY FREEZING RAIN SOUNDINGS...SATURATED 850MB WARM NOSE AND BELOW 0C SFC WET BULB TEMPS...ARE FORECAST IN A BAND FROM ICT TO MCI TO IRK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF UP TO 0.25 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED NEAR CONVECTION LATE THIS MORNING OVER NWRN/NRN OK AND SRN KS. EXPECT THIS HEAVY ICING TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD GRADUALLY ENEWD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH TREACHEROUS TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES RESULTING WITHIN THE CORE OF HEAVIEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS. A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF THE FREEZING RAIN AXIS...FROM CNTRL KS INTO NRN MO AND WRN IA THROUGH 00Z. ..CARBIN.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37099769 36759884 36490021 36560089 36880139 37090146 37530132 37930032 38489921 38759852 39009800 39289738 40539484 41049305 40829126 40289133 39219251 37749517  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 18:06:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 13:06:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501041808.j04I8IqW026913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041804 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NRN AND ERN NEB...WRN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 041804Z - 050000Z FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW IN AN EXTENDED WINTER STORM EVENT WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF NERN NEB...SERN SD...AND WRN IA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL LOCALLY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER CA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER FROM THE ROCKIES EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ROTATING OUT OF STRONG WRN TROUGH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT IN A WEST-EAST SWATH ACROSS NEB/SD. THIS LIFT MAY TEND TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EWD TOWARD DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE. NONETHELESS... HEAVY SNOW...POSSIBLY OCCURRING IN ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE BANDS... WILL OCCUR WHERE STRONGEST SLOPED ASCENT WITHIN MID/UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION COINCIDES WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP SATURATED AIRMASS WITH ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN THE -12C TO -17C RANGE WILL EXIST ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN VERY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS MAY RESULT IN GREATER SNOWFALL RATES DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. SLEET/ICE PELLETS MAY INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NEB AND WRN IA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...COOLING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IN THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HEAVIER SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MO RIVER AND INTO WRN/SWRN IA AFTER 20Z. ..CARBIN.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 40639580 40559712 40639845 40910022 41640101 42680135 43420063 43539914 43249732 42779540 42559466 42179408 41419395 41019477  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 23:48:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 18:48:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501042350.j04No0vn018540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042348 TXZ000-NMZ000-050145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH PARTS OF W TX INTO EXTREME ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042348Z - 050145Z THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF W TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY ERN NM THIS EVENING. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW. EARLY THIS EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM PARTS OF SERN OK SWWD THROUGH W TX TO THE N OF BIG SPRINGS AND MIDLAND. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF AND N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD TOWARD W TX AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT NEAR AND N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER W TX THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SUCH THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT N OF THE BOUNDARY AND BECOME ELEVATED SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION. SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND MODEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..DIAL.. 01/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 32150118 32560288 33710360 34930272 35180142 34200000 32799952 32230011 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 01:01:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 20:01:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501050103.j0513Kr3019705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050102 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-050700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NW MO...SE IA...NRN IL...SRN WI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 050102Z - 050700Z FREEZING RAIN WITH ACCUMULATION RATES OF UP TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH IN ONE HOUR AND MODERATE SNOW WITH RATES APPROACHING ONE INCH AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE THREAT AREA THROUGH 06Z. PREDOMINANTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF AN AXIS FROM 25MI NW TOP TO LWD TO 30MI N OF MLI AND 10MI S OF RFD. INITIAL 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR TOP WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD AT 25KT AND CONTRIBUTE TO NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF AN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. STRONG WARM ADVECTION LAYER BETWEEN 1KM AND 3KM IS EVIDENT IN 00Z ETH WIND PROFILER OBSERVATION WITHIN THE MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AREA . REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR AND ADIABATIC COOING WITH STRONGER ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE THREAT AREA CONTRIBUTING TO A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO MODERATE SNOWFALL. WARM LAYER CURRENTLY SUPPORTING MODERATE FREEZING RAIN IS EVIDENT IN WARM ADVECTION LAYER NEAR 850MB IN 00Z TOP SOUNDING. A SHALLOW WARM LAYER IS ALSO EVIDENT IN DVN SOUNDING NEAR 800MB WHERE STRONGER ASCENT AND REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW. SOUTHERN EDGE OF SURFACE FREEZING LINE AND WET BULB ZERO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH 06Z WITHIN A STEADY NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND FIELD. EXPECT WARM LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPERATURE TO LIMIT FROZEN ACCUMULATIONS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST IL. MODELS AGREE WITH A MINORING OUT OF THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE AS IT ENTERS THE CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TRAILING SHORTWAVES LOCATED NEAR PUB AND TUS. ..SCHNEIDER.. 01/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 42268811 41868851 41318983 40709138 39669349 38719526 38979598 40229565 41319500 42019369 42319195 42639052 42788920 42838809 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 01:13:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 20:13:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501050115.j051FDT0025273@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050112 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050111 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-050615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...NW OK...SWRN THROUGH E CNTRL KS CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 050111Z - 050615Z PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM PARTS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES NEWD THROUGH NW OK INTO SRN AND CNTRL KS. FREEZING RAIN RATES FROM .05 TO .1 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY. LOCALLY HIGHER RATES FROM .15 TO .2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR...GENERALLY AOB 1000 M DEEP...REMAINS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL/S KS AND SWD INTO OK AND NW TX WITH THE FREEZING LINE FROM NERN KS SWWD THROUGH NW OK INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER...PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ALONG A 30-40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE...AND THIS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS. A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS KS AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MIGRATES TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER KS WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SWD MOVING ARCTIC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SW THROUGH NE KS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD THROUGH W TX. THE PERSISTENT STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL COMBINE TO ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION AND PRECIPITATION RATES/COVERAGE FROM THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES NEWD INTO SRN AND CNTRL KS. A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW MAY OCCUR FROM PARTS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES THROUGH SW AND CNTRL KS LATER TONIGHT. ..DIAL.. 01/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB... 37889565 36469882 35680182 36090277 36960245 38140033 38979790 39159610  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 06:01:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 01:01:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501050603.j05634j2028618@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050602 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050601 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-051030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE/NW OK/SRN AND ERN KS/WRN AND NRN MO/SE IA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 050601Z - 051030Z WINTER STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CORRIDOR FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE/NW OK INTO WRN AND NRN MO/SE IA OVERNIGHT. HOURLY FZRA/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05-0.10 IN WILL BE COMMON...WITH 0.20-0.25 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WV/IR IMAGERY AND PROFILER NETWORK DEPICTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK ADVANCING EWD ACROSS ERN NM/FAR NW TX...WHILE INTENSE SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXISTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG WARM LAYER AROUND 800-850 MB -- AS EVIDENT IN 00Z AMA/OUN/TOP/SGF RAOBS -- ABOVE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROAD CORRIDOR OF FZRA/SLEET OVERNIGHT FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE/NW OK INTO WRN/NRN MO AND SE IA. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES OVERNIGHT...AS FURTHER EVIDENCE BY CELLULAR CONVECTION/SCT CG LIGHTNING SPREADING NEWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE/NW OK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ACROSS WCNTRL/NE KS...DEEPENING COLD AIR OWING TO SWD OOZING ARCTIC FRONT SUGGESTS SNOW WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT ALONG/NW OF A P28-TOP AXIS TOWARD 12Z. ..GUYER.. 01/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 41039308 41099127 39639141 39349199 38669308 37629475 36839613 35939750 35329894 35240005 35590073 36840081 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 12:50:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 07:50:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501051252.j05CqNIv018480@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051251 PAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-051715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IL AND NRN IN/NRN OH INTO NW PA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 051251Z - 051715Z CORRIDOR OF FZRA/SLEET TO EXPAND/INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM NRN/CNTRL IL AND NRN IN INTO NRN OH/NW PA...WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10 IN POSSIBLE. BROAD WARM CONVEYOR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME CONTINUES TO ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS IL/IN/OH. AS BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING AND PRECIP RATES INCREASE...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF FZRA AND/OR SLEET FROM NRN/CNTRL IL AND NRN IN INTO NRN OH/NW PA. 12Z ILX/PIT RAOBS DEPICT +4C WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND 1.5 KM/825 MB...INDICATIVE OF FZRA POTENTIAL IN AREAS WHERE SHALLOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER IS AND/OR BECOMES SUB-FREEZING. PER 06Z ETA/09Z RUC GUIDANCE...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION OF THERMAL FIELDS THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT FZRA AND/OR SLEET FROM NRN/CNTRL IL INTO NW PA THROUGH 18Z. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR CONSIDERABLE ICE ACCUMULATION...ROUGHLY 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A PIA-FWA-FDY-FKL AXIS. ..GUYER.. 01/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41797971 41377918 40837964 40548294 39998610 39968822 39968999 41119035 41738938 41848823 41498741 41648470 41318226 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 13:14:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 08:14:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501051316.j05DGhVg023221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051315 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-051745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/ERN KS/NRN MO AND NW/WCNTRL IL CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 051315Z - 051745Z SIGNIFICANT FZRA/SLEET TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN SW-NE ORIENTED CORRIDOR FROM NRN OK/ERN KS INTO NRN MO AND NW/WCNTRL IL. HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10 IN WILL BE COMMON...WITH 0.20-0.25 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE WITHIN EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. LATEST WV IMAGERY/SRN PLAINS PROFILERS PORTRAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ADVANCING ENEWD FROM NM INTO NW TX...WITH IR IMAGERY DEPICTING COOLING CLOUD TOPS FROM FAR ERN KS INTO IL EARLY THIS MORNING. AMIDST STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WARM AIR CONTINUES TO OVERRIDE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS -- APPROX DEPTH OF 1-1.5 KM OR LESS FROM NRN OK INTO NW IL PER REGIONAL WIND PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS/12Z RAOBS. 09Z RUC/06Z ETA PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THROUGH THE MORNING...SUGGESTING FZRA/SLEET WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT IN A 150 MILE CORRIDOR FROM NRN OK INTO NRN MO/NW IL THROUGH 18Z. IN ADDITION TO STRONG BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION...WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PER REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN/NRN OK. ..GUYER.. 01/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 40759145 41059031 39729005 39249173 38619279 37459407 36739550 35339807 35939881 36919838 39709494 40479283 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 17:48:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 12:48:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501051750.j05Ho75l017253@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051744 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051744 IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-052345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN KS...SERN NEB...IA...NWRN MO CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 051744Z - 052345Z SNOW...OCCASIONALLY FALLING AT RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN A BROAD ARC FROM EXTREME NWRN KS ACROSS MUCH OF IA. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF MDT TO HVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM CNTRL TO NERN KS...EXPANDING INTO NWRN MO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC MID/UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY. WV IMAGERY AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA INDICATED THE STRONG TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD WITH ONE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN IA AND ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING NEWD FROM WRN KS. WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH EJECTING PIECEMEAL FROM THE ROCKIES...SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS APPEARS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM ERN CO NEWD TO NWRN IA. VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW MOVING NEWD FROM NWRN KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE UPWARD MOTION ALONG THIS AXIS AS DPVA DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN KS AND SRN NEB NEXT FEW HOURS. MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BANDS ACROSS IA HAVE BEEN INTENSIFYING AHEAD OF ANOTHER VORT LOBE MOVING EAST FROM ERN NEB. EXPECT MORE FAVORABLE SLOPED ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF POLAR JET TO GRADUALLY WANE ACROSS THIS REGION NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER LIFT MOVES NEWD ACROSS IA FROM KS/NEB IMPULSE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS OF MDT TO HVY SNOW WITH STRONG ASCENT OCCURRING WITHIN SATURATED MID LEVEL AIRMASS WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE. A SMALLER SCALE DEFORMATION ZONE...PERHAPS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO THE PRIMARY COMMA-HEAD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING CYCLONE...APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE FROM CNTRL TO NERN KS AT THIS TIME. INCREASING MESOSCALE ASCENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. COUPLED WITH DRAMATIC ADIABATIC COOLING AND PROXIMITY OF GREATER MOISTURE WITHIN LARGE SCALE WARM CONVEYOR BELT...AN EXPANDING AREA OF HEAVY SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN AND NERN KS...AND PERHAPS INTO WRN MO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWBURSTS WITHIN THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 06/00Z. ..CARBIN.. 01/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 38619821 38399872 38169961 38620104 39730196 41080050 42639731 43399484 43589379 43279216 42339130 40619280 40159331 39439398 37979523 37879588 38149616 38499657 38749678 38959720 38829775 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 17:58:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 12:58:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501051759.j05Hxqiu023872@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051757 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-060000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IL/IND/OH POSSIBLY INTO PA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 051757Z - 060000Z CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL IND/OH...AND POSSIBLY INTO PA. HOURLY RATES OF .05 TO .10 INCH/HOUR WILL BE COMMON WILL LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING .15 TO .20 INCH/HOUR. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRANSLATES ENEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...ATTENDANT SURFACE/850 MB LOWS WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING DOWNSTREAM BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG/JUST N OF THE OH RIVER. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT WAA ALONG NOSE OF 40-50 KT WSWLY LLJ AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD N OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SYNTHESIS OF CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST FROM NEAR CMI EWD TO MIE TO MFD WHERE .05 TO .10 INCH PER HOUR RATES WILL BE COMMON. SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SNOW...WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF IND/OH. DIRECT MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS ARISING FROM THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NARROW W-E ORIENTED PRECIPITATION BANDS WHERE HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES MAY APPROACH .15-.20 INCH/HOUR. ..MEAD.. 01/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 40438899 41198876 41828533 41938252 41787975 41487712 40737722 40418167 40008825 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 00:11:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 19:11:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501060013.j060DINo018705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060011 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 PM CST WED JAN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 060011Z - 060615Z A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A BAND ACROSS SE NEB...SRN IA...FAR NRN MO...NRN IL AND FAR SRN WI. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NERN NEB EXTENDING ENEWD TO SCNTRL WI AND FROM NCNTRL MO TO NCNTRL IL. AN UPPER-LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS WRN MO. THE JET IS CAUSING STRONG AND WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BACKED TO THE EAST FROM SE NEB EXTENDING ENE ACROSS SRN IA INTO NRN IL. THIS COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPS OF -15C TO -20 C AND SFC TEMPS THE TEENS AND 20S F WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS ZONE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY REACHING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS A DEFORMATION ZONE CURRENTLY ACROSS NE KS MOVES SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NRN MO THIS EVENING. THE SERN EXTENT OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL JET...EXTENDING NEWD FROM CNTRL MO ACROSS CNTRL IL TO SWRN LOWER MI. A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR. THE AMOUNT OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT GRADUALLY DROPS OFF ACROSS NE NEB ...NRN IA INTO SCNTRL WI. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO THE WEAKENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THIS REGION. STILL...SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE WITH SNOWFALL RATES DECREASING ACROSS NE NEB AND NWRN IA LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. ..BROYLES.. 01/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD... 43919082 43398695 43128632 42598608 42178629 41478714 40878869 39389167 38669328 38719435 38969453 39589497 39919560 40069662 39719769 39459865 39409917 39829965 40499964 41829877 43149701 43959312 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 00:47:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 19:47:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501060049.j060nBpr001681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060047 PAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-060645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST WED JAN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IN...NRN OH...NW PA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 060047Z - 060645Z FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GLAZE RATES OF UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR OVER THE THREAT AREA. STRONG WARM TEMPERATURE ADVECTION NORTH OF THE 850MB WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE NOSE OF A SWLY LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SWLY WINDS OF 50KT IN THE LVX VWP AT 00Z CAPTURE THE CORE OF THE LLJ MAXIMUM WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECT TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONTRIBUTES TO ANOTHER HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION SURGE AFTER 07Z. THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD WITH A DEEP WARM LAYER EVIDENT IN 800MB TO 650MB ILN AND DTX SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH 00Z DTX LAYER IS SUB FREEZING...THE EAST WEST 700MB CONFLUENCE AXIS IS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRANSITION ZONE WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. ..SCHNEIDER.. 01/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX... 41088495 41468408 41798308 41798193 41768057 41607957 41637867 41567816 41067797 40967894 40967998 40808158 40658352 40458552 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 05:56:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 00:56:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501060558.j065wT5f012681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060557 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060557 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-061200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST WED JAN 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MIDWEST...OH VALLEY...GREAT LAKES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 060557Z - 061200Z BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES FROM ERN IA ENEWD TO LOWER MI. UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NRN IA ACROSS CNTRL WI AND NCNTRL IL TO NW OH. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR SW IA AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NEWD OVERNIGHT REACHING SRN WI BY DAYBREAK. A MID-LEVEL JET OF 100 KT IS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MO TO NW OH. THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET IS PROVIDING STRONG AND WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM NRN IND EXTENDING WNWWD ACROSS NRN IL INTO IA. HEAVY SNOWBANDS ARE LOCATED ABOUT 150 TO 200 STATUTE MILES NORTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. IN ADDITION...A LOW-LEVEL JET IS ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST FROM SRN LOWER MI TO SRN WI AND IS PROVIDING STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS NEWD OVERNIGHT...SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL SPREAD ACROSS ERN IA...NRN IL..SRN WI AND INTO CNTRL LOWER MI. SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR OVER SRN MN...SCNTRL WI AND NRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE BRIEF DUE TO DECREASING FLOW AND WEAKER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. DUE TO TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS CNTRL IL...NRN IND AND NW OH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 09Z TO 12Z ACROSS THIS ZONE AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL. ..BROYLES.. 01/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... 44139303 44858515 44308360 43108298 41848311 40638419 39828774 40188995 40869174 40689360 40469581 42749599 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 06:00:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 01:00:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501060602.j0662FVl013640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060601 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060600 NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-061100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL PA AND SRN NY/NRN NJ INTO WRN CT/WRN NH CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 060600Z - 061100Z FZRA/SLEET EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PA INTO EXTREME SRN NY OVERNIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OWING TO HOURLY RATES OF 0.05-0.10 IN. FURTHER NORTH...SLEET TO DEVELOP FROM SCNTRL NY EWD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY...WHILE SNOW REMAINS PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF CNTRL NY. WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 00Z DIAGNOSTICS PORTRAY WARM CONVEYOR CONTINUING TO SURGE NEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY 800-850 MB WARM LAYER -- AS EVIDENT IN 00Z PIT RAOB -- WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. AT 06Z...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NRN PA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80...IN ADDITION TO APPALACHIAN REGION OF CNTRL PA. AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR INCREASES ABOVE THIS SHALLOW /1 KM OR LESS PER ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN WSR-88D VADS/ COLD BOUNDARY LAYER...FZRA/SLEET EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PA INTO FAR SRN NY. IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...21Z SREF/03Z RUC PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO WITH DEPICTION THAT FZRA AND/OR SLEET WILL EXPAND NNEWD ACROSS NRN PA INTO FAR SE NY/NRN NJ THROUGH 12Z. ..GUYER.. 01/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... 42667447 42287285 41157301 40597342 40507565 40667689 40847876 41387951 42247957 42797869 42867626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 13:01:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 08:01:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501061302.j06D2rxb001534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061301 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-061800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE PA/NRN NJ AND CNTRL/ERN NY INTO SRN NH/SRN VT AND MA/CT/RI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 061301Z - 061800Z FZRA/SLEET EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS NCNTRL/NE PA AND SRN NY/NRN NJ INTO CT...WITH 0.05-0.10 IN/HR RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE GLAZE. SNOW EXPECTED TO YIELD TO FZRA/SLEET ACROSS MA/CNTRL NY THROUGH 18Z. WV/IR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS ATTENDANT 1002 MB SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS SE OH. AHEAD OF THIS CYCLONE...WARM CONVEYOR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WITH PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SRN NY/NRN PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. AS STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/UVVS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR CONTINUES TO OVERRIDE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FZRA AND/OR SLEET ACROSS NCNTRL/NE PA AND SRN NY/NRN NJ/CT THROUGH 18Z. FURTHER N/E...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN ACCORDANCE WITH 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS/PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST SNOW ACROSS CNTRL NY INTO MA WILL PROGRESSIVELY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN PRIOR TO 18Z AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER LEADS TO PARTIAL/COMPLETE MELTING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIGHT/MDT SNOW FROM NE NY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SRN VT/SRN NH...AS EVIDENT IN COLD PROFILE SEEN IN 12Z ALB RAOB. OTHERWISE... PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH/CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/DZ ACROSS SW NY/NCNTRL PA BY 18Z AS LOW LEVEL PROFILES WARM/DRY SLOT APPROACHES. ..GUYER.. 01/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 43957389 43097139 42717082 41797089 41537183 40967430 41337625 41537756 42257801 43517776 44257614 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 13:09:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 08:09:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501061311.j06DBhcv005784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061310 MIZ000-061745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 061310Z - 061745Z MDT/OCNLY HVY SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL LOWER MI THIS MORNING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION. ON NRN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE NEARING SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...WSR-88D VOLUMETRIC DATA/SFC OBSERVATIONS DEPICT DEFORMATION AXIS WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF MDT/PERIODICALLY HVY SNOW TRANSITIONING FROM ERN WI INTO LOWER MI. AS THIS EWD TREND CONTINUES...12Z APX RAOB/09Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER FOR SNOW GROWTH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLANDS/SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB REGION OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 15Z-18Z. FURTHERMORE...RUC BASED CROSS SECTIONS INDICATIVE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY PER NEGATIVE DTHETA-E/DZ IN 500-700 MB LAYER ACROSS CNTRL MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. COMBINED WITH 15:1 OR GREATER SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIOS...SNOW RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION THIS MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE 18Z AS CYCLONE/ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION BAND MOVES NEWD INTO SRN ONTARIO. ..GUYER.. 01/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45288348 44678345 44378363 44078347 43868320 43378396 43218482 43388621 43888649 44758613 45338516 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 17:31:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 12:31:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501061733.j06HXGIk024805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061731 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-062300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY...NRN VT...NH...ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 061731Z - 062300Z MDT TO OCNL HVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND PARTS OF NERN NY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WHILE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD MAKE STEADY NEWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CORE OF THE BAND COULD EXPERIENCE SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR FOR UP TO 3 HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR FOR A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND. HOWEVER...WARMER MID LEVEL AIRMASS INFILTRATING PARTS OF ERN NY AND SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND MAY RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DEPARTS SWRN SECTIONS OF THIS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION AREA...SEE UPCOMING MCD 0039 FOR MORE INFO ON MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION. PROGRESSIVE CYCLONE OF MODEST INTENSITY WILL DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER JET COUPLING MOVING FROM WRN NEW YORK TO NRN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE ZONE OF STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP SURFACE-BASED COLD DOME. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WITH BUF AND PIT MORNING RAOBS INDICATING PW VALUES AROUND 1 INCH. MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND LIFT WILL INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH THROUGH VAPOR DEPOSITION AND AGGREGATION WITH HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING IN A NW-SE ARC FROM NERN NY ACROSS NRN/CNTRL VT TO NH. THIS BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD TRANSITION ENEWD ACROSS NH AND MAINE THROUGH EVENING AS STRONGEST FORCING DEVELOPS ENEWD. GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONGEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WAS BEING INDICATED IN ETA POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN NY AND MUCH OF VT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET...OR EVEN A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET...ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION BEFORE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES THESE AREAS DURING THE EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 01/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... 44226905 43467080 44187201 44657317 44587362 44217376 44087407 44177443 44357471 44487482 44727497 44907503 45137467 45177386 45247237 45587096 46317017 46336876 45856779 45026755 44646744 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 17:38:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 12:38:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501061740.j06He92o029588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061739 MAZ000-MEZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-062345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO SRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 061739Z - 062345Z A NWD SHIFT OF FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH 0.15-0.25 INCH/HOUR AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AS OF 17Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER ERN LAKE ERIE WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WRN PA INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION. FARTHER NE...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK/NOVA SCOTIA IS MAINTAINING FEED OF COLDER...DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NE WITH 17Z FREEZING WET BULB ZERO /WBZ/ LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY 20 NE IPT TO 30 N JFK TO NEAR EWB. CURRENT VWPS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS N OF THIS LINE INDICATE THAT 35-45 KT SWLY LLJ AT 1-1.5 KM AGL IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL FORCING VIA WAA WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING OVER SRN NY INTO WRN CT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THIS FREEZING RAIN CORRIDOR EXTENDS ROUGHLY 60-90 N OF WBZ LINE...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO SLEET NEAR ALB...AND FINALLY SNOW FROM GFL EWD ACROSS NRN MA INTO SRN PORTIONS OF VT/NH. PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL ALLOW FOR NWD MOVEMENT OF WBZ LINE APPROXIMATELY 50-60 MILES BY 21-22Z...WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING OVER ERN NY GENERALLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR ALB SWD TO POU AND THEN EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL MA WHERE HOURLY LIQUID AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 0.10-0.20 INCH. EXPECT A NARROW SWATH OF SLEET N OF THIS AREA...PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING INTO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NERN NY INTO NRN VT/NH. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS ANTICIPATED HEAVIER SNOW...PLEASE SEE MCD 0038. ..MEAD.. 01/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF... 41917001 41387157 41087386 41647556 42087672 42847708 43847519 43957348 43257011 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 13:00:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 08:00:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501071302.j07D2cQ7006512@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071301 CAZ000-NVZ000-071800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SIERRAS/SISKIYOUS/KLAMATH MTNS OF CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 071301Z - 071800Z HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SIERRAS/SISKIYOUS/KLAMATH MTNS OF NRN/CNTRL CA THIS MORNING. WHILE 1.5-2.0 IN/HR RATES WILL BE COMMON...RELATIVELY HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN SIERRAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 2.0-4.0 IN/HR POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000 FT LEVEL. WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING PORTRAYS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST NEAR 35N/125W...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS/MOIST PLUME EXPANDING EWD THROUGH CNTRL CA. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG DYNAMIC ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CA THIS MORNING...WITH QUICK ONSET OF HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM THE SISKIYOUS/KLAMATH MTNS INTO THE SRN SIERRAS. CONSISTENT WITH 12Z OAK RAOB...09Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SWLY WINDS IN 1.5-4.0 KM LAYER INCREASING TO 40-65 KTS BY MID/LATE MORNING...WITH CORRESPONDING OROGRAPHIC LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UVVS. MESONET OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICT FREEZING LEVELS RANGING FROM AROUND 3000-3500 FT ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF CA TO 4500-5000 FT ACROSS THE SRN SIERRAS. 12Z OAK RAOB FEATURES MOIST PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.8 IN...INDICATIVE OF DEEP MOISTURE/DENDRITIC PROFILES WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CA THROUGH AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 01/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...MFR...STO...EKA... 40572199 40732240 40342275 39912257 39842268 39782316 40142322 40732349 41482325 41622268 41472223 40502088 39052000 37711872 36291782 35931757 35591790 35711845 36821915 37812015 38952056 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 18:25:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 13:25:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501071827.j07IR3JT006093@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071825 CAZ000-NVZ000-072230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0041 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MTNS OF CA...AND ELEVATIONS DOWN TO 1000 FT IN NRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 071825Z - 072230Z HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE SIERRA MTNS...THE COASTAL RANGES OF SRN CA...AND THE MT SHASTA REGION. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 1000 FT ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL CA BY 00Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM 2500-4000 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT 18Z...PARENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE WA COAST. WELL-DEFINED VORT CENTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE PARENT TROUGH...AND IS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ENEWD AT 30-35KT REACHING FAR WRN NV BY 08/00Z. DEEP-LAYER PVA COMBINED WITH SWLY WINDS OF 60-80KT BETWEEN 2-4KM WILL LEAD TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG MUCH OF THE SIERRA MTNS DURING THE NEXT 6 HRS. RUC 3-HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS EXCEED 0.5" ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION BETWEEN 18-21Z...AND AGAIN BETWEEN 21-00Z. CONDITIONS SUGGEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3"/HR...ESPECIALLY ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WRN SLOPES. ACROSS FAR NRN CA...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 21-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COLD POOL CURRENTLY OFFSHORE ROTATES EWD. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 1-2 KFT BY 08/00Z ACROSS THE FAR NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THE 12Z ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT RDD AROUND 23Z. FAR SRN PORTION OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND IS AFFECTING THE COASTAL MTNS OF SRN CA AT 18Z. OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN LOCAL HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 2500 FT. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN THE COASTAL BASIN AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SNOW MAY LEAD BRIEFLY TO 1-2"/HR RATES THROUGH 22Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ..BANACOS.. 01/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...MFR...STO...EKA...LOX...SGX... 40022255 39662250 39362252 39212271 39402305 39802338 40492374 41022379 41522356 41802315 41942250 41862169 41472121 40792077 39501999 38271899 37501849 36501801 35681807 35681860 36281879 37091929 37882005 38712066 39412109 40252157 40632184 40662216 40552247 40312261 34951894 34951932 34881965 34741962 34621944 34551910 34531887 34611881 34831876 34521766 34521798 34471834 34341831 34221813 34181780 34181763 34231745 34431745 34431662 34431694 34381730 34251727 34121709 34091676 34091659 34141641 34341641 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 18:28:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 13:28:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501071830.j07IU0L7008433@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071827 ILZ000-MOZ000-072330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0042 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL/ERN MO...WRN IL CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 071827Z - 072330Z MODERATE SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF MO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED BY WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THESE LIMITATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE EARLY EVENING TO SUPPORT A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET...FROM CNTRL MO INTO WRN IL. A FAST MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM TX/OK AND ACROSS MO THROUGH 08/00Z. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND MOISTENING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE AND SHOULD OVERCOME INITIAL LIMITATIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. 12Z ETA/RUC...AND LATEST 15Z RUC...SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RELATIVELY QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN A SW-TO-NE CORRIDOR ACROSS MO. BY EVENING...SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO PARTS OF IL. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS LEND SUPPORT TO THE ETA/RUC FCSTS WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING INDICATED WITHIN INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC LEAF FROM ERN OK INTO WRN MO. CLEAR-AIR MODE RADAR RETURNS ARE ALSO EXPANDING/INCREASING ALONG THE SERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC LEAF WHERE MID LEVEL ASCENT IS LIKELY STRENGTHENING. ADDITIONALLY...VORT MAX/IPV INTRUSION APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING WITH PRONOUNCED DARKENING NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER NWRN TX. AS THIS STRENGTHENING IMPULSE LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS MO THROUGH LATE TODAY...STRONG ASCENT AND ADIABATIC COOLING WILL ACT ON ELEVATED GULF COAST MOISTURE RETURN TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE SNOW. RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT DURATION OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF MO SHOULD BE SHORT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM ERN MO...ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO IL BEYOND 08/00Z. ..CARBIN.. 01/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38009146 37719224 37509298 37119380 37139440 37599452 37909424 38169382 38379337 38919260 39379174 39619093 39279025 38599026 38289076 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 18:29:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 13:29:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501071831.j07IVOW1009255@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071825 CAZ000-NVZ000-072230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0041 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MTNS OF CA...AND ELEVATIONS DOWN TO 1000 FT IN NRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 071825Z - 072230Z HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE SIERRA MTNS...THE COASTAL RANGES OF SRN CA...AND THE MT SHASTA REGION. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 1000 FT ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL CA BY 00Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM 2500-4000 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT 18Z...PARENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE WA COAST. WELL-DEFINED VORT CENTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE PARENT TROUGH...AND IS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ENEWD AT 30-35KT REACHING FAR WRN NV BY 08/00Z. DEEP-LAYER PVA COMBINED WITH SWLY WINDS OF 60-80KT BETWEEN 2-4KM WILL LEAD TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG MUCH OF THE SIERRA MTNS DURING THE NEXT 6 HRS. RUC 3-HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS EXCEED 0.5" ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION BETWEEN 18-21Z...AND AGAIN BETWEEN 21-00Z. CONDITIONS SUGGEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3"/HR...ESPECIALLY ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WRN SLOPES. ACROSS FAR NRN CA...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 21-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COLD POOL CURRENTLY OFFSHORE ROTATES EWD. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 1-2 KFT BY 08/00Z ACROSS THE FAR NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THE 12Z ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT RDD AROUND 23Z. FAR SRN PORTION OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND IS AFFECTING THE COASTAL MTNS OF SRN CA AT 18Z. OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN LOCAL HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 2500 FT. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN THE COASTAL BASIN AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SNOW MAY LEAD BRIEFLY TO 1-2"/HR RATES THROUGH 22Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ..BANACOS.. 01/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...MFR...STO...EKA...LOX...SGX... 40022255 39662250 39362252 39212271 39402305 39802338 40492374 41022379 41522356 41802315 41942250 41862169 41472121 40792077 39501999 38271899 37501849 36501801 35681807 35681860 36281879 37091929 37882005 38712066 39412109 40252157 40632184 40662216 40552247 40312261 34951894 34951932 34881965 34741962 34621944 34551910 34531887 34611881 34831876 34521766 34521798 34471834 34341831 34221813 34181780 34181763 34231745 34431745 34431662 34431694 34381730 34251727 34121709 34091676 34091659 34141641 34341641  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 18:29:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 13:29:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501071831.j07IVfM2009405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071827 ILZ000-MOZ000-072330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0042 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL/ERN MO...WRN IL CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 071827Z - 072330Z MODERATE SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF MO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED BY WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THESE LIMITATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE EARLY EVENING TO SUPPORT A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET...FROM CNTRL MO INTO WRN IL. A FAST MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM TX/OK AND ACROSS MO THROUGH 08/00Z. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND MOISTENING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE AND SHOULD OVERCOME INITIAL LIMITATIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. 12Z ETA/RUC...AND LATEST 15Z RUC...SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RELATIVELY QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN A SW-TO-NE CORRIDOR ACROSS MO. BY EVENING...SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO PARTS OF IL. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS LEND SUPPORT TO THE ETA/RUC FCSTS WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING INDICATED WITHIN INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC LEAF FROM ERN OK INTO WRN MO. CLEAR-AIR MODE RADAR RETURNS ARE ALSO EXPANDING/INCREASING ALONG THE SERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC LEAF WHERE MID LEVEL ASCENT IS LIKELY STRENGTHENING. ADDITIONALLY...VORT MAX/IPV INTRUSION APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING WITH PRONOUNCED DARKENING NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER NWRN TX. AS THIS STRENGTHENING IMPULSE LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS MO THROUGH LATE TODAY...STRONG ASCENT AND ADIABATIC COOLING WILL ACT ON ELEVATED GULF COAST MOISTURE RETURN TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE SNOW. RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT DURATION OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF MO SHOULD BE SHORT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM ERN MO...ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO IL BEYOND 08/00Z. ..CARBIN.. 01/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38009146 37719224 37509298 37119380 37139440 37599452 37909424 38169382 38379337 38919260 39379174 39619093 39279025 38599026 38289076  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 00:28:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 19:28:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501080029.j080TiDD030958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080028 PAZ000-080430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 080028Z - 080430Z A MIX OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PA FROM SW-NE TOWARD 08/06Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.1 IN/HR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. AT 08/00Z...A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXISTED OVER CENTRAL MS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN. LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES HAVE ALLOWED MOIST AIR MASS TO STREAM NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF OF MEXICO NWD TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50KT EVIDENT IN VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL PROPAGATE NEWD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 06Z. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF MOBILE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE SRN PLAINS TRACKING TOWARD THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INTO CENTRAL PA TOWARD 06Z TONIGHT ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NERN U.S. COAST. SHALLOW LAYER OF SUB-ZERO WET BULB TEMPERATURES EXISTED AT 00Z AND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL PA. THE 18Z ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE AND BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SURFACE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AROUND 05Z AT STATE COLLEGE AND AROUND 07Z AT WILLIAMSPORT. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN PRESENT RADAR TRENDS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT REGION OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY MOVING NEWD AT 30-35KT. UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE OHIO VALLEY HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.1"/HR...AND SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN RATES BETWEEN 0.05"-0.1"/HR ACROSS CENTRAL PA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS PRECIPITATION ZONE GRADUALLY MOVES NEWD. ..BANACOS.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ... 40437604 40287628 40187706 40167776 40307890 40457915 40917929 41317912 41497874 41617807 41697765 41667711 41597661 41527619 41417594 41027591 40847590 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 02:33:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 21:33:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501080235.j082ZM2h015062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080234 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-080300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0834 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AL...SERN MS AND ERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080234Z - 080300Z A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN MS AND ERN LA WITH SPORADIC REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD. EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOWED SUFFICIENT 0-3KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. BUOYANCY IS APPARENTLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. ..RACY.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29929081 33898717 33568606 29868784 29389001 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 05:43:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 00:43:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501080545.j085j4cO024139@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080544 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080544 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-080715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...SWRN/CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1... VALID 080544Z - 080715Z 05Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1014 MB LOW VCNTY BOWLING GREEN KY WITH STRONGEST 2-HRLY PRESSURE FALL AXIS SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE MID-OH VLY. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH THE TN VLY AND THE MORE INTENSE BRANCH OF THE SWLY LLJ SHOULD START TO MIGRATE NWD OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTING THE NRN PART OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WARM SECTOR HAS EXPANDED INTO NRN AL...AND BIRMINGHAM RADAR HAS SHOWN THAT TSTM CELLS ACROSS CNTRL AL WERE EXHIBITING SOME BRIEF TENDENCIES FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THUS...AN ISOLD TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD OCCUR...BUT OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER S...WARM SECTOR IS MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS EXTREME SRN MS AND SWRN AL. BUT...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES. ..RACY.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB... 31068890 34068667 33988524 31038764 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 06:40:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 01:40:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501080641.j086fumF012511@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080641 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-081115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND/NRN OH AND FAR SERN MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 080641Z - 081115Z HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES AROUND 1 INCH ONGOING OVER FAR ECENTRAL IL...NRN/CENTRAL IND WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO FAR SERN MI/NRN OH OVER THE NEXT 2-5 HOURS. HEAVY SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVER NRN IND THROUGH 10Z. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY /EVIDENT BY RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SRN OH/ AIDING IN AN OCCLUSION PROCESS FOR THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THIS DRY SLOT DEVELOPMENT/OCCLUSION CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RESULTANT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING /EVIDENT BY RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WSW-ENE ORIENTED SNOW BANDS FROM NRN IND INTO FAR SERN MI/NRN OH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCATION OF STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OF -14 TO -18 DEG C /FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH/ WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ROUGHLY 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF AN AXIS FROM HUF TO FDY TO CLE THROUGH 12Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...ILX... 42258304 41408554 40168754 39218747 39838597 40308457 40868264 41688104 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 06:44:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 01:44:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501080645.j086jkBf013975@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080644 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080644 RIZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-081245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PA/NRN NJ...SRN NY...CT/RI AND WRN MA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 080644Z - 081245Z A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. THE HEAVIEST RATES ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN PA/SRN NY THROUGH 12Z...WHERE HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES FROM 0.05-0.15 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/UPPER OHIO VALLEY WHERE A DEEP LAYER OF DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE WAS OCCURRING. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SFC FREEZING ISOTHERM EXTENDS FROM NWRN PA EWD INTO ECENTRAL PA...THEN BACK NEWD TO THE NYC METRO AREA/FAR SRN CT. LOW LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SLOW NWD PROGRESSION OF THIS LINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN PA. INITIAL MID LEVEL WAA WILL AID IN LIGHT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPMENT AS FAR NORTH AS ERN CT/RI AND WRN MA THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF A DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 150 MB AS EVIDENT BY THE 00Z OKX SOUNDING/RECENT SFC OBS...AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PRECLUDE HRLY AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS FROM EXCEEDING 0.05 INCH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE PER RECENT PRESSURE TENDENCY ANALYSES INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WAA WILL OVERSPREAD NRN PA/FAR SRN NY AND NRN NJ BETWEEN 09-12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THIS REGION INDICATE THE EXISTENCE OF AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850 MB THAT WILL SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE OVER SCENTRAL NY...NRN PA AND INLAND AREAS OF NRN NJ/SERN NY. FARTHER NE ACROSS THE REST OF SRN NY/WRN MA...CT AND RI...RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE LOW LEVELS INDICATES THAT AS SATURATION OCCURS...PTYPE WILL CHANGE FROM A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OVER TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. DESPITE INITIAL WET-BULB EFFECTS...COASTAL ARAS OF NRN NJ/SERN NY...LONG ISLAND WILL SEE A GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER FROM LIGHT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW MOVEMENT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ..CROSBIE.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 42767590 42637792 42467905 42007987 41337947 40997799 40937593 40787526 40727408 40907287 41457181 41937147 42667292 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 12:11:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 07:11:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501081213.j08CDL9K005836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081212 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-081745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NY...NRN PA...NRN NJ...CT/RI...MA AND SRN VT/NH CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 081212Z - 081745Z A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH 18Z. HEAVIEST LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AN AXIS FROM SRN NY INTO MA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHERE HRLY RATES UP TO 0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE 06Z ETA SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH PTYPE FORECAST AND HRLY AMOUNTS IN STRONG WAA REGIME CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN PA/SRN NY. STRONG 0-2 KM THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE NOTED BY 40 KT DIFFERENCE IN THE 1-2 KM WINDS BETWEEN PBZ AND BGM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAPID NEWD SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS FROM FAR SRN NY NEWD INTO ECENTRAL NY...MA...SRN VT/NH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RECENT TRENDS IN SFC PRESSURE TENDENCY ANALYSES INDICATES THAT THE SFC LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE A MORE ELY COMPONENT IN IT/S MOTION OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. THUS...EXPECT A MORE EWD TRANSLATION OF THE STRONGEST WAA PROFILE AND PRECIPITATION RATES FROM SRN NY/FAR NRN PA INTO MA/NRN CT AND FAR SRN VT/NH THROUGH 18Z. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE FREEZING ISOTHERM HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS NRN NY/FAR SERN NY AND SRN CT...WITH SLOWER PROGRESS OVER THE VALLEYS OF NRN PA. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NRN PA THROUGH 18Z...VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AID IN A CONTINUED NNWWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FREEZING LINE INLAND OVER THE REST OF NRN NJ/LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OF SERN NY...SRN CT/MOST OF RI AND SERN MA...WITH A NWD MOVEMENT OVER NRN PA JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. STRENGTH OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS THE PRIMARY PTYPES OVER MOST OF SERN NY/NRN CT AND WRN/CENTRAL MA BY 18Z...WITH A LIGHT-MDT SNOW LIKELY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...ECENTRAL NY...SRN VT/SRN NH...BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AS THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER DEEPENS AHEAD OF STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. ..CROSBIE.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 43097076 43537205 43447371 43207466 43037636 42797748 42077871 41467862 41227783 40977636 40837530 41227373 41527229 42237099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 12:13:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 07:13:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501081215.j08CFO9w006912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081214 NYZ000-PAZ000-081715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL NY...FAR NWRN PA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 081214Z - 081715Z MDT-HVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NWRN PA/SWRN NY THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE MOVING ENEWD INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACK REGION OF NY BETWEEN 15-18Z. HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN NY/NWRN PA THROUGH 15Z. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH HAS APPARENTLY REACHED MATURITY AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO PUSH RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WELL FORMED DEFORMATION ZONE WITH MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM FAR SERN MI/NRN OH INTO NWRN PA/FAR SWRN NY THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NY BY 18Z. HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES AIDED BY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE AT TIMES REACHED 2 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS APPARENTLY REACHING PEAK INTENSITY...AND THE DRYSLOT WILL FURTHER AID IN OCCLUSION AND BEGINNING OF A WEAKENING TREND...HRLY RATES AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAX SNOWFALL RATE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO SWRN/CENTRAL NY. AS LOW LEVEL COOLING OCCURS BEHIND N-S ORIENTED SFC TROUGH...AREAS OF CENTRAL/SWRN NY WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OVER TO MDT-HVY SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. ..CROSBIE.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE... 44027426 44507564 43377676 43207903 42058043 41688011 42017879 42287733 43247479 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 12:14:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 07:14:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501081215.j08CFon8007027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081212 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-081745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NY...NRN PA...NRN NJ...CT/RI...MA AND SRN VT/NH CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 081212Z - 081745Z A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH 18Z. HEAVIEST LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AN AXIS FROM SRN NY INTO MA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHERE HRLY RATES UP TO 0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE 06Z ETA SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH PTYPE FORECAST AND HRLY AMOUNTS IN STRONG WAA REGIME CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN PA/SRN NY. STRONG 0-2 KM THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE NOTED BY 40 KT DIFFERENCE IN THE 1-2 KM WINDS BETWEEN PBZ AND BGM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAPID NEWD SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS FROM FAR SRN NY NEWD INTO ECENTRAL NY...MA...SRN VT/NH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RECENT TRENDS IN SFC PRESSURE TENDENCY ANALYSES INDICATES THAT THE SFC LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE A MORE ELY COMPONENT IN IT/S MOTION OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. THUS...EXPECT A MORE EWD TRANSLATION OF THE STRONGEST WAA PROFILE AND PRECIPITATION RATES FROM SRN NY/FAR NRN PA INTO MA/NRN CT AND FAR SRN VT/NH THROUGH 18Z. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE FREEZING ISOTHERM HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS NRN NY/FAR SERN NY AND SRN CT...WITH SLOWER PROGRESS OVER THE VALLEYS OF NRN PA. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NRN PA THROUGH 18Z...VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AID IN A CONTINUED NNWWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FREEZING LINE INLAND OVER THE REST OF NRN NJ/LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OF SERN NY...SRN CT/MOST OF RI AND SERN MA...WITH A NWD MOVEMENT OVER NRN PA JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. STRENGTH OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS THE PRIMARY PTYPES OVER MOST OF SERN NY/NRN CT AND WRN/CENTRAL MA BY 18Z...WITH A LIGHT-MDT SNOW LIKELY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...ECENTRAL NY...SRN VT/SRN NH...BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AS THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER DEEPENS AHEAD OF STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. ..CROSBIE.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 43097076 43537205 43447371 43207466 43037636 42797748 42077871 41467862 41227783 40977636 40837530 41227373 41527229 42237099  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 12:15:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 07:15:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501081217.j08CH3hA007290@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081214 NYZ000-PAZ000-081715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL NY...FAR NWRN PA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 081214Z - 081715Z MDT-HVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NWRN PA/SWRN NY THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE MOVING ENEWD INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACK REGION OF NY BETWEEN 15-18Z. HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN NY/NWRN PA THROUGH 15Z. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH HAS APPARENTLY REACHED MATURITY AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO PUSH RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WELL FORMED DEFORMATION ZONE WITH MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM FAR SERN MI/NRN OH INTO NWRN PA/FAR SWRN NY THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NY BY 18Z. HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES AIDED BY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE AT TIMES REACHED 2 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS APPARENTLY REACHING PEAK INTENSITY...AND THE DRYSLOT WILL FURTHER AID IN OCCLUSION AND BEGINNING OF A WEAKENING TREND...HRLY RATES AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAX SNOWFALL RATE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO SWRN/CENTRAL NY. AS LOW LEVEL COOLING OCCURS BEHIND N-S ORIENTED SFC TROUGH...AREAS OF CENTRAL/SWRN NY WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OVER TO MDT-HVY SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. ..CROSBIE.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE... 44027426 44507564 43377676 43207903 42058043 41688011 42017879 42287733 43247479  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 18:30:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 13:30:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501081832.j08IWXVx000827@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081832 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081831 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ME / MUCH OF NH AND MA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 081831Z - 082230Z OCCASIONALLY HVY SNOW RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE OVER NERN MA AND SRN NH...AND WILL INCREASE FROM CENTRAL NH INTO SRN ME BY 21Z. HRLY LIQUID RATES OF 0.10-0.20 IN HAVE BEEN COMMON THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS LOW LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES. LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED AS COLUMN COOLS ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER N...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL PERSIST AND WILL SATURATE PROFILES...ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW FALL FROM CENTRAL NH INTO SRN ME. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INCREASING ABOVE 600 MB...COINCIDENT WITH MOST FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH. THUS A NEW AREA OF HVY SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER ERN NH INTO SRN ME THIS AFTERNOON. ..JEWELL.. 01/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX... 42327083 42217122 42137242 42567226 43837198 44277112 44546969 44226893 43886923 43497023 42917076 42627060 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 9 01:06:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 20:06:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501090108.j0918LvE026258@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090107 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090107 WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-090700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NV...SERN ID...EXTREME W-CENTRAL WY...EXTREME NWRN AND N-CENTRAL UT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 090107Z - 090700Z HEAVY SNOWS FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. RATES WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF SFC FRONT AND WWD FACING SLOPES AS DETAILED BELOW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SHARP FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR LINCOLN/TETON COUNTY BORDER IN WY...SWWD ACROSS BEAR LAKE/FRANKLIN AND SRN ONEIDA COUNTIES ID...NRN/WRN BOX ELDER COUNTY UT...TO ROUGHLY 30 S EKO. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN DRIFTING SWD INVOF ID/UT BORDER PAST 1-2 HOURS BASED ON MESOWEST/RAWS OBS...AND MAY CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO EXTREME NRN UT BECAUSE OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING/REINFORCEMENT BY ABUNDANT PRECIP TO ITS N. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SIERRA NV RANGE -- IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION ALOFT ACROSS NV...WHICH WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS REMAINDER DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. LKN RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME ABOVE FRONTAL LAYER. RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS WITH BETWEEN .25-.5 INCH PW IS PRESENT BENEATH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN 7-8 DEG C/KM RANGE...WITH VERY WEAK CAPE PRESENT IN RAOB. ACCORDINGLY...ISOLATED LIGHTNING INDICATED IN PRECIP BAND OVER NERN NV...AND IR CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ABOVE NRN NV. EXPECT SNOW RATES TO PEAK BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3Z-6Z...WITH UP TO 2-3 INCHES/HOUR IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT S OF FRONTAL ZONE...AND AT SFC FOR ALL ELEVATIONS N OF FRONT. HEAVIER SNOW RATES 3-4 INCHES/HOUR COULD OCCUR IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS -- FACING W OR SW -- ALONG AND N OF FRONT. LOCALLY EXTREME RATES NEAR 4 INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 01/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... 40751712 41721576 42771375 43521160 43591071 43211054 42431054 41801067 41641084 41601097 41661114 41841136 41981170 42001238 41891297 41411378 40791472 40331576 40061648 40411691 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 9 06:21:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 Jan 2005 01:21:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501090623.j096N2MN005879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090622 WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-091115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN ID...FAR NRN UT...SWRN/CENTRAL WY CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 090622Z - 091115Z HVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL END FROM SW TO NE ACROSS FAR SERN ID...FAR NRN UT...SWRN AND CENTRAL WY FROM 08-11Z. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AIDING IN STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT/ AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HVY SNOWFALL ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT FROM NRN UT NEWD INTO CENTRAL WY OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN SLOPES THE NRN WASATCH/WIND RIVER MTNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF SLC TO NEAR RIW MOVES SLOWLY SEWD. COMBINED WITH OTHER FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...SNOWFALL RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE FOUND IN THESE AREAS. PROGRESSION OF UPPER FORCING...AS EVIDENT BY PRESSURE FALLS MOVING NEWD INTO NRN WY/SERN MT OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHMENT OF HVY SNOWFALL FROM SW-NE FROM 08-11Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH... 43541040 41621211 40551330 40331279 40491128 40861036 41210966 41910805 43620738 43800873 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 03:56:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 22:56:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140359.j0E3xcQt017886@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140358 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-140500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0958 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 14... VALID 140358Z - 140500Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE ERN HALF OF WW. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS -- REPLACING WW 0014. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS -- AHEAD OF ADVANCING LINE OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH FEWER ISOLATED / SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EVIDENT ATTM AHEAD OF MAIN LINE...THE LINE ITSELF HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS ARE EVIDENT WITHIN THE LINE -- PRIMARILY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INVOF WEAK SURFACE LOW EVIDENT ON LATEST MESOANALYSIS. AS THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE LINE SHIFT ENEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT AN ISOLATED TORNADO / DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THIS AREA. THEREFORE...REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 36088162 36528057 36587915 35567883 32728024 32978183 34118197 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 05:31:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 00:31:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140533.j0E5Xm35031137@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140532 VAZ000-MDZ000-140700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140532Z - 140700Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN / CENTRAL VA. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. VERY STRONG WIND FIELD / FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VA -- AND THE ENTIRE MIDDLE / SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION -- AHEAD OF APPROACHING RAIN / CONVECTIVE BAND. THOUGH MODEL AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS S CENTRAL VA...PERSISTENT ROTATING STORM SURVIVED NEWD INTO ERN FRANKLIN CO VA DURING THE PAST HOUR. THIS INDICATES THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXISTS -- AT LEAST INTO SRN PORTIONS OF VA. WITH STRONG WIND FIELD IN PLACE AND SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY INDICATED ENEWD INTO CENTRAL AND SERN VA...IT APPEARS THAT A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND POTENTIAL NEED FOR WW ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 37297962 37817926 38347791 38187650 36907668 36557865 36597969 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 07:07:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 02:07:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140709.j0E79qWC005341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140709 VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-141315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH/NW INTO CNTRL PA/WRN AND CNTRL NY/NRN VT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 140709Z - 141315Z PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NY/NWRN PA OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR POSSIBLE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT FROM MSS/PEO/DSV/HLG/HTS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING 10-15 DEGREES WITHIN JUST A FEW MINUTES OF FROPA...WITH SFC PRESSURE RISES OF 1MB/HR BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MODERATE SNOW BEING REPORTED IN NERN OH/WRN NY. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATE OR EVEN HEAVY SNOW AS THE FRONT PASSES WITH RAPID COOLING OCCURRING WITHIN THE COLUMN DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICAL LIFT. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND THIS BAND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD THROUGH 12Z. IN ADDITION...STRONG UVV WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE MODELING THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WELL...INDICATING A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT BUF BETWEEN 04-05Z WHICH AGREES WITH OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUGGEST ABOUT A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW ONCE IT BEGINS...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE LAYER. SATURATED AND DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES WILL FAVOR HEAVIER SNOW RATES...LIKELY AT LEAST 1 INCH/HR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES FOR BRIEF PERIODS. ETA/RUC SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO IN THEIR DEPICTION OF PRECIPITATION RATES. SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN NERN OH/EXTREME NWRN PA AND WRN NY NEAR LAKE ERIE. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AT LOCATIONS NEAR BFD/PEO...AND IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS NEAR UCA/BGM AND AFTER 10Z ACROSS NRN VT. ..TAYLOR.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 45047462 42628035 41878075 40308079 40187971 41617578 43447331 44957171 45067324 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 07:16:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 02:16:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140718.j0E7Iv40008699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140718 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140718 NCZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-140815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140718Z - 140815Z THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL THIS MORNING. SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADOES ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL THIS MORNING WITH SRH VALUES OF 150-200 M2/S2. LIMITING FACTOR SEEMS TO BE MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER PER RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...AS UPSTREAM UPPER SPEED MAX...NOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO...APPROACHES...TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL FL/NRN FL LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA EWD. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF STORMS SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. ..RACY.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MLB...TBW...JAX... 34278076 35728030 36508019 36507805 36387741 35587736 34167811 34217919 27248279 28178281 28638194 29198186 29568142 29388092 28698047 27588094 27178158 26758221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 07:19:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 02:19:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140722.j0E7MhCb009908@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140722 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140722 COR FLZ000-140815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140722Z - 140815Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL THIS MORNING. SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADOES ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL THIS MORNING WITH SRH VALUES OF 150-200 M2/S2. LIMITING FACTOR SEEMS TO BE MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER PER RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...AS UPSTREAM UPPER SPEED MAX...NOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO...APPROACHES...TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL FL/NRN FL LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA EWD. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF STORMS SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. ..RACY.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27248279 28178281 28638194 29198186 29568142 29388092 28698047 27588094 27178158 26758221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 07:24:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 02:24:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140727.j0E7R2eD011742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140726 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140726 NCZ000-SCZ000-140900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC AND NCNTRL SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 15... VALID 140726Z - 140900Z THE TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WT 15. THREAT MAY SPREAD EWD INTO ERN NC LATER THIS MORNING AND AN ADDITIONAL WW POSSIBLE. 06Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1009 MB LOW OVER NWRN NC. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN LOCATED OVER VA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER MESOLOW MAY BE FORMING OVER SCNTRL SC. THIS WILL MOVE NEWD INTO CNTRL NC THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY AID IN THE BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. 0-1KM SRH IS ALREADY EXTREME WITH VWPS SHOWING AROUND 350-400 M2/S2 ACROSS CNTRL NC. INSTABILITY...ALBEIT LOW...IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED TSTM THREAT AND SHOULD NOT BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT. LINE OF STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO CNTRL/ERN NC AFTER 10Z AND IT IS POSSIBLE ANOTHER WW WILL BE NEEDED FARTHER EAST. ..RACY.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 34278076 35728030 36508019 36507805 36387741 35587736 34167811 34217919 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 07:34:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 02:34:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140737.j0E7bARL015344@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140736 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-140930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NY...EXTREME ERN PA...NJ...DE...NERN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140736Z - 140930Z NARROW BUT PRONOUNCED LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION -- EVIDENT INITIALLY FROM OTSEGO COUNTY NY SWWD ACROSS ERN PA THROUGH FREDERICK COUNTY MD -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD 25-30 KT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND ACCOMPANYING WIND DAMAGE. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE NARROW PLUME OF NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY -- APPROXIMATELY 30-50 NM WIDE -- AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE OVER DE VALLEY NWD ALMOST TO NJ/NY BORDER. DESPITE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC...SFC TEMPS LOW-MID 60S F AND LOW 60S DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPES 200-500 J/KG FROM NRN MD TO NRN PA/NJ BORDER...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. LOWER-THETAE AIR IS ADVECTING OFF ATLANTIC OVER MUCH OF ERN NJ AND SERN NY. HOWEVER...SLIGHT VEERING WITH TIME OF PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH WAA TO EXTEND BUOYANT CORRIDOR NEARLY TO NJ COASTLINE AND NWD INTO SOME OF SERN NY. THIS IN TURN WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFT GUSTS TO PENETRATE TO SFC...POSSIBLY OF DAMAGING INTENSITY. ..EDWARDS.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 39117725 40007651 41527544 42627494 42697447 42637399 42357366 42087354 41157360 40667378 40277401 39567440 39047486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 08:54:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 03:54:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140857.j0E8vJEd013671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140856 NCZ000-SCZ000-141000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC AND EXTREME NCNTRL SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 15... VALID 140856Z - 141000Z TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREATS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR CNTRL/ERN NC AND ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. ORIGINAL MESOLOW HAS MOVED INTO SCNTRL VA AT 08Z WITH INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL SC/SCNTRL NC. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS SATURATED WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2. APPROACH OF THE MESOLOW WILL AUGMENT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...BUT KINEMATICS AND LOW LCLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THREATS WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL...BUT RISKS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO CONSIDER ANOTHER WW. ..RACY.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE... 34298001 36487917 36507701 34207800 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 09:13:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 04:13:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501140916.j0E9GiE4020892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140916 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140915 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-141045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DC...DE...SRN MD...CNTRL/ERN VA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 16... VALID 140915Z - 141045Z TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS CONTINUE. 09Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A MESOLOW BETWEEN KLYH-KCHO. BACKED WINDS INVOF THIS FEATURE HAVE AUGMENTED THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE WITH EXTREME VALUES OF 0-1KM SRH...IN EXCESS OF 600 M2/S2. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND REPORTS OF DAMAGE ACROSS CNTRL VA THIS MORNING. THE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW THROUGH 12Z WITH A NARROW BAND OF WEAK...BUT POSITIVE BUOYANCY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS ANOTHER MESOLOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING OVER SCNTRL NC. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE INTO SERN VA LATER THIS MORNING. ..RACY.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 36647896 39037705 39027381 36597562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 11:32:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 06:32:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501141135.j0EBZ1Zr008506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141134 NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-141300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...SERN NY INCLUDING PARTS OF NYC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 17... VALID 141134Z - 141300Z ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN NJ AND PARTS OF WRN LONG ISLAND THROUGH 12-13Z...BUT THE THREAT SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. WS 17 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE 14Z EXPIRATION. THE INSTABILITY AXIS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN SHRINKING AS THE SHOWERS APPROACH ERN NJ AND LONG ISLAND. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC HAS MAINTAINED A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER EAST. THUS...SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...OR...BECOME MORE DETACHED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 12-13Z WILL BE ACROSS ERN NJ AND PERHAPS WRN PARTS OF NYC. ..RACY.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI... 39347551 40507456 41497382 41507307 39307447 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 12:03:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 07:03:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501141206.j0EC6Zuu021665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141205 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-141330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN NC...ERN VA...SRN MD...SRN DE AND ADJACENT BAYS/COASTAL WATERS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...18... VALID 141205Z - 141330Z ISOLD TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE 12-14Z. MESOANALYSIS PLACES LOWS VCNTY KRIC IN ECNTRL VA AND ABOUT 30 N OF KFAY IN CNTRL NC. EACH LOW WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY EXTREME VALUES OF STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN VA INTO SRN MD/DE THROUGH 14Z. SLIGHTLY LOWER TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST OVER NERN NC AS THE SECONDARY LOW MIGRATES TOWARDS KECG. BUT...SLIGHTLY DRIER POCKET OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS ADVECTING NWD FROM COASTAL SERN NC...RESULTING IN A MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. CORE OF THE STRONGEST H85 JET IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NEWD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS ADVERTISED BY 09Z RUC. THIS WILL TEND TO LESSEN THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BEGINS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE...OR INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF DE...MD...VA...NC. ..RACY.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH... 35647837 38787629 38777418 35527561 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 15:23:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 10:23:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501141526.j0EFQ8wh011943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141524 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141523 NCZ000-141630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA...ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 18... VALID 141523Z - 141630Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 18 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 16Z. MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...WHERE IT IS JUST NOW SURGING ACROSS THE LEE SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...MOST VIGOROUS ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FOCUSED ON PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE/ WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. THIS FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY 17-18Z. UNTIL THEN...RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS DIMINISHING. ..KERR.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM... 34057790 34937731 35557662 36027628 36387589  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 15:56:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 10:56:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501141559.j0EFxCND009230@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141554 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141554 FLZ000-141830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141554Z - 141830Z POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ARE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HEATING OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS SHOULD WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENOUGH FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 18Z. CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST AND WEST OF THE KEYS...AND MAY AFFECT KEY WEST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...NEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS...BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE MIAMI/FORT LAUDERDALE/PALM BEACH AREAS BY 18-20Z. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR SEEM RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME RISK OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS NEAR MOST INTENSE CELLS. ..KERR.. 01/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... 24628176 25008131 25448104 26138076 26528069 26758048 26738030 26657999  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 12:10:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 07:10:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501151213.j0FCDW7V006055@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151211 ORZ000-WAZ000-151615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND N-CENTRAL ORE...AND FAR SRN WA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 151211Z - 151615Z COVERAGE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NWRN/N-CENTRAL ORE THROUGH 18Z WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD INTO THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY FROM EUG TO PDX...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE CASCADES OF NRN ORE EWD ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN THROUGH 15/18Z. ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS WORKED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS EVIDENCED BY 1041MB SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN. SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVELY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXIST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN WWD TO PDX. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED FROM 25 N OTH SEWD ACROSS INTERIOR SWRN ORE. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS NWRN ORE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD. SHORTWAVE 500MB RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST IS SLOWING PROGRESS OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED AT EUG SINCE 1044Z AND SHOULD DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. COLD AIR MASS IS DEEPER AND WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COLUMBIA GORGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH 18Z...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON. WET BULB COOLING AND DRAINAGE FLOW WITHIN THE RIVER BASIN SHOULD SLOW EFFECTS OF LARGE-SCALE WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. ..BANACOS.. 01/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR... 43692281 44002325 44412351 44972353 45772343 45952322 45982280 45882236 45842182 45832142 45752120 45532101 45152089 44732093 44272096 44042108 43722150 43472187 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 18:56:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 13:56:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501151859.j0FIxfxo014422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151858 ORZ000-WAZ000-152330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW/CNTRL ORE AND PORTIONS SW/CNTRL WA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 151858Z - 152330Z COMBINATION OF FZRA/SLEET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE COLUMBIA GORGE/CASCADES THROUGH 00Z...WHILE FZRA CHANGES TO RAIN IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY/WA INTERIOR VALLEY AROUND/AFTER 21Z. WV IMAGERY PORTRAYS VORT MAX OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST AROUND 43N/130W. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS ERN WA...WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN/COLUMBIA GORGE INTO NCNTRL/NE ORE. AT 18Z...MESONET OBS FEATURE FZRA REPORTS IN WILLAMETTE VALLEY/WA INTERIOR VALLEY FROM OLM-PDX-SLE WITH SFC TEMPS HOLDING AROUND 29F-31F. IN THIS CORRIDOR...15Z RUC PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN AROUND/AFTER 21Z OWING TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/WARMING SFC TEMPS. FURTHER EAST...IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE/CASCADES/ERN SLOPES...AS PRECIP SHIELD EXPANDS EWD THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO YIELD TO SLEET AND/OR FZRA AS SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED BELOW ENCROACHING WARM LAYER BASED AROUND 850-900 MB. ..GUYER.. 01/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...SEW...PQR... 46912270 47002159 46272031 45901994 45471955 45051916 44231920 43881937 43852117 44552287 45002301 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 01:19:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 20:19:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501170122.j0H1M2rq005450@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170120 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-170615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0105 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CAPE COD AND COASTAL MA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 170120Z - 170615Z OCNLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH 03Z ACROSS CAPE COD/NANTUCKET/MARTHA VINEYARD AND COASTAL AREAS OF ERN MA. SNOW RATES MAY APPROACH 1 IN/HR INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AMIDST INCREASINGLY STRONG NELY WINDS. WV/IR IMAGERY IN ACCORDANCE WITH SURFACE DIAGNOSTICS REVEALS INTENSIFYING SFC LOW CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF ACK /NANTUCKET/. RAPID PRESSURE FALLS HIGHLIGHTED BY 5.7 MB/3 HR FALLS WERE OBSERVED IN OCEAN BUOY 60 SSE OF ACK BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. WITH MARINE INFLUENCE...SFC TEMPS REMAIN AROUND/ABOVE 32F ACROSS COASTAL MA/CAPE COD INTO MARTHAS VINEYARD/NANTUCKET AT 00Z. HOWEVER 21 RUC SOUNDINGS/00Z GYX RAOB SUPPORT OCNLY HEAVY SNOW GIVEN SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS ABOVE SFC LAYER. AS CYCLONE INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AROUND/AFTER 06Z...SW-NE ORIENTED MID LEVEL /600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL TEND TO PROMOTE MULTIPLE SNOW BANDS IN A SIMILAR ORIENTATION ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF ERN/SERN MA. IN ADDITION...OWING TO STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...NELY WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AND CREATE PERIODIC WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 01/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX... 43047079 42527036 41966991 41197000 41307076 41617126 42087136 42527128 42867100 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 05:13:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 00:13:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501170516.j0H5GLEs005461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170515 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170515 MEZ000-MAZ000-RIZ000-170915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL MA AND COASTAL ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 170515Z - 170915Z A CONTINUATION OF LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL MA THROUGH 10Z...WITH SNOW RATES DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NNEWD FROM THE GULF OF ME INTO THE MID-COAST AND DOWNEAST REGIONS OF ME BETWEEN 06-08Z...PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. AT 5Z...SURFACE CYCLONE ESTIMATED 200NM SE OF ACK WILL PASS WELL EAST OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND TRACKING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO JUST SE OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 17/12Z. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...MODERATE 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE PERIODS OF SW-NE ORIENTED MESOSCALE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTH SHORE OF BOS AND CAPE COD THROUGH 10 UTC. A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS LIKELY THEREAFTER AS FORCING MOVES NE OF THE AREA AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC COLD ADVECTION REGIME MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO NLY AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH GUSTS AT COASTAL POINTS TO 35KT LIKELY. GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35KT HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS FAR SERN MA...THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SUGGEST BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR ARE LIKELY IN NARROW...HEAVIER BANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MEANWHILE...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FROM THE MID-COAST REGION OF ME EWD ACROSS DOWNEAST ME BETWEEN 6-9Z AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN 700-500MB LAYER TRANSLATES NNEWD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND EXTREMELY DEEP DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER APPROACHING 10KFT PER 3Z RUC SHOULD MAXIMIZE SNOW TO LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATIOS ALLOWING FOR LOCALIZED 1-1.5 IN/HR SNOWFALL DURING THE 6-12Z PERIOD. ..BANACOS.. 01/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX... 44056948 44856854 45306768 45226714 44966691 44416735 43056866 41296976 40937023 40937131 41657108 42547076 43506999 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 12:36:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 07:36:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501171238.j0HCcsl3009880@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171237 WAZ000-171630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CST MON JAN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR WA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 171237Z - 171630Z FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MTN PASSES OF THE WA CASCADES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EWD INTO CENTRAL WA THROUGH 18Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05"/HR ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY IN THE CASCADE MT. PASSES BY MID-LATE MORNING. LOW-LEVEL ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED EAST OF CASCADES AS EVIDENCED BY 1036MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AT 17/12Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN THE MTN PASSES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL WA...WITH ONLY SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-5F. MEANWHILE...THE 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL WA WILL TRANSLATE EWD IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST. VAD WIND PROFILE FROM NWRN WA INDICATES STRONG VEERING WINDS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 6KM WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 50-55KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LAYER. IR IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND NWRN WA...THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD SEWD ACROSS WA STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. UVV WILL BE DRIVEN BY 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION WHICH SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL WA BY 18Z...WITH LOCALLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OWING TO EXISTING SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. LIFT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES...AND MAY DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER...STRONG SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES /PW 1-1.25 IN ALONG THE WA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON/ SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL WA. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BASED ON 09Z RUC GENERALLY SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN IN THE MT. PASSES AND SLEET INITIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL WA. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR SLEET TO BECOME FREEZING RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS CONSIDERABLE WARMING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN 850-700MB LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL WA. ..BANACOS.. 01/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW... 48342143 47392150 46952151 46662150 46332139 46072070 46141950 46571885 47181869 47911866 48521884 48771925 48971960 48952053 48912106 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 19:02:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 14:02:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501171905.j0HJ53ZV007486@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171903 WAZ000-172330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CST MON JAN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR WA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 171903Z - 172330Z FZRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN MTN PASSES/ERN SLOPES OF CASCADES... WITH 0.05 IN/HR LIQUID EQUIVALENTS AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...WHILE FZRA/SLEET SPREADS EWD INTO PORTIONS OF NE WA MTNS/COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH 00Z. WSWLY PACIFIC JET/WARM CONVEYOR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM VERY MOIST AIRMASS /AS EVIDENT BY 1.08 IN PRECIP WATER IN 12Z UIL RAOB/ INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AT 18Z...SURFACE DIAGNOSTICS/MESONET OBSERVATIONS DEPICT SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS REMAINING ENTRENCHED FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES ON PERIPHERY OF 1038 MB CNTRL/SRN ID HIGH PRESSURE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MORNING...15Z BASED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CONTINUANCE OF FZRA SCENARIO IN MTN PASS AREAS/ERN SLOPES OF CASCADES WHERE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS PERSISTS BENEATH ENCROACHING ELEVATED WARM LAYER BASED AROUND 850 MB. FURTHER EAST...A RELATIVELY LIGHTER MIX OF SLEET/FZRA EXPECTED TO EXPAND EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NE WA MTNS/COLUMBIA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION/INCREASINGLY SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES. ..GUYER.. 01/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW... 48722105 48312123 47512138 46842152 46382146 46062123 46082065 46401925 46951829 47721775 48161764 48791809 48831917 48881991 48892062  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 01:22:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 20:22:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501180124.j0I1Orw0016705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180123 IDZ000-WAZ000-ORZ000-180600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0109 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 PM CST MON JAN 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR WA/NRN ID CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 180123Z - 180600Z FZRA/SOME SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MTN PASS AREAS OF CREST/ERN SLOPES OF CASCADES INTO PORTIONS OF ERN WA/FAR NRN ID THROUGH 06Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD AREAS OF CONSIDERABLE ICE GLAZE AND HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF 0.05 IN OR GREATER. DEEP MOISTURE FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AMIDST 50-70 KT MID LEVEL WSWLY WINDS -- AS SAMPLED IN ACARS DATA/WSR-88D VADS ACROSS WA. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME IN 500-700 MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD ERN WA/NRN ID...INDUCING BROAD PRECIP SHIELD THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR WA/NRN ID...BARRING DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PER LATEST SURFACE DIAGNOSTICS/MESONET OBS...SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING ARCTIC AIRMASS LARGELY REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM MTN PASS AREAS/ERN SLOPES OF CASCADES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND MAJORITY OF MTN AREAS OF NE WA/FAR NRN ID. PER 00Z OTX RAOB...ELEVATED WARM LAYER /+3 DEG C/ CENTERED AROUND 800 MB HAS ALREADY SPREAD EWD THROUGH ERN WA EARLY THIS EVENING...EVIDENCE OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR FZRA WHERE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING. YIELDING TO MID LEVEL WAA...RAIN SEEMINGLY ALREADY BECOMING DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE INVOF I-90 CORRIDOR OF ECNTRL WA/NRN ID...AS EVIDENCED BY GEG AND COE /COEUR D'ALENE ID/ SFC WET BULBS WARMING ABOVE 32F OVER PAST FEW HOURS PRIOR TO 01Z. ..GUYER.. 01/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR... 48722105 48312123 47512138 46842152 46432155 46012158 45732075 45832001 45971884 46081791 46941750 47711689 48171617 48921627 48961891 48971977 48962061 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 13:13:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 08:13:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501181316.j0IDFxiR007791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181315 MNZ000-NDZ000-181715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 AM CST TUE JAN 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/N-CENTRAL MN AND NERN ND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 181315Z - 181715Z REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD ACROSS NERN ND REACHING N-CENTRAL MN BY 18Z. SNOW RATES OF 1"/HR LASTING AROUND 2 HOURS IS LIKELY...WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. AT 13Z...RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS NERN ND IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. THE LOW WILL RACE ESEWD AT 45KT REACHING NWRN ONTARIO BY 18Z. SYSTEM IS BRINGING LEADING EDGE OF PACIFIC AIR INTO THE REGION...REPLACING ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. A SWD EXTENDING CHINOOK TYPE WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AT 13Z. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL PVA WILL SUSTAIN N-S BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA ALREADY INDICATE SLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SMALL WATER CONTENT TO SNOW...CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOWFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH 18Z. FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW TO 2-3 HOURS...ALTHOUGH LOW VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS BECOME WLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. ..BANACOS.. 01/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 48939525 48889744 48789799 47819776 47569711 47529600 47289500 47169388 47649318 48039287 48359263 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 12:17:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 07:17:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501211219.j0LCJU5j028816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211216 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-211645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0111 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ND / NRN AND ERN SD / WRN MN CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 211216Z - 211645Z FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER SRN ND AS WELL AS NRN AND ERN SD WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 0.05 IN. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW FARTHER NE WITH HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR DEVELOPING FROM ERN ND INTO SWRN MN. PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS MORNING ACROSS ND IN RESPONSE TO BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. ORIENTATION OF THERMAL GRADIENT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITHIN A NW-SE ORIENTED CORRIDOR. 12Z BIS AND ABR RAOBS INDICATE SLEET PROFILES WITH WARM NOSE AROUND 800 MB. AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES...A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN OVER NERN SD WITH ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. FARTHER E INTO ERN ND AND WRN MN...PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SNOW. ..JEWELL.. 01/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 43909675 44259819 45460129 46640180 47580231 47990299 48310318 49010315 49020190 49019864 48999741 46149492 44879439 44019486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 18:59:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 13:59:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501211901.j0LJ1xuR007238@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211859 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-220000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD AND CNTRL/SRN MN INTO WRN WI/NRN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 211859Z - 220000Z SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUALLY INCREASE INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WCNTRL/CNTRL/SCNTRL MN...WITH HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SE MN/NE IA/WRN WI AFTER 21Z. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURATION. DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS LEADING MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING SEWD ACROSS BOTH ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/PROFILER NETWORK DEPICTS LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW-SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ACCORDANCE WITH VOLUMETRIC RADAR TRENDS...HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DYNAMIC ASCENT OVERSPREADS ELEVATED PORTION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. 12Z ETA/15Z RUC DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN 285K-295K LAYER ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA/WRN WI BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD INTO THIS CORRIDOR AFTER 21Z...AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR /HEAVY/ SNOW GIVEN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC PROFILES AND ABSENCE OF ELEVATED MELTING LAYER. ON PERIPHERY OF HEAVIER SNOW...AREAS OF FZRA AND/OR SLEET WILL EXIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN CORRIDOR FROM FAR ERN SD INTO NW IA /ROUGHLY ATY-SPW/ OWING TO 800-850 MB WARM LAYER -- E.G. 12Z ABR/OAX RAOBS -- ABOVE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING LAYER. ..GUYER.. 01/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 46359220 44739074 43139013 42359058 42269228 42639423 43799696 44969805 45659785 46629699 47049606 47039391 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 00:43:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 19:43:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501220045.j0M0jitm015751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220044 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-220545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE MN/NE IA...CNTRL/SRN WI...AND NRN IL/NW IN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 220044Z - 220545Z MDT/HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS FAR SE MN/NE IA AND CNTRL/SRN WI THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW INCREASING AFTER 03Z ACROSS NRN IL/NW IN. RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURATION. WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE CHANNELS PORTRAY LEADING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SE SD/WRN IA AHEAD OF SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUNGING SWD ACROSS SRN MANITOBA. AS SEEN BY STRONG WAA REGIME IN 00Z MPX/DVN RAOBS AND BLR /BLUE RIVER WI/ PROFILER...WAA/INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN 285K-295K LAYER WILL CONTINUE THE SEWD EXTRAPOLATION OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW THROUGH SRN WI/NE IA/NRN IL/NW IND THIS EVENING. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...18Z ETA/21Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF DEEPLY SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES AMIDST FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER. 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL MATERIALIZE AROUND/AFTER 03Z ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. ..GUYER.. 01/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX... 44949010 44288862 43398746 42078595 41548619 41228705 41378831 41798975 42609118 43399232 43839252 44449207 45009137 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 04:49:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 23:49:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501220451.j0M4pp9q013620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220451 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220450 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-221045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0114 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/NW MN INTO CNTRL/SE MN /NRN IA/WRN WI CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/HEAVY SNOW VALID 220450Z - 221045Z BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/W CNTRL MN WILL SPREAD EWD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA AND WRN WI WITHIN THE NEXT 1-4 HOURS. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. SFC PRESSURE RISES 2-3 MB/HR ARE ACCELERATING A COLD FRONT E/SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL MN. VERY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE SUSTAINED AT 25-40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH RECENTLY REPORTED IN SE SD/SW MN. AREA VAD WIND DATA PROFILES INDICATE 35-50 MPH WINDS IN THE LOWER 1KM. EVEN THOUGH THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS MOVED INTO SCNTRL/SE MN...GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BOUNDARY MARKED BY SHARP WIND SHIFT NOW EXTENDS FROM ALGONA IA TO JUST EAST OF NEW ULM/HUTCHINSON MN. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES EWD...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS SE MN/NE IA/WRN WI. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE ACROSS SRN MN INTO WCNTRL WI...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN AREAS. IN ADDITION TO DEVELOPING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...MOD/HEAVY SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SE MN/NE IA/WRN WI NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SNOW RATES OF 1 INCH/HR OR GREATER. ..TAYLOR.. 01/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 48639727 47419795 45059762 44379683 43469543 43129396 42939246 42989108 43919076 46729422 48609656 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 05:55:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 00:55:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501220557.j0M5vw2c005411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220557 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220556 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-221200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE AND UPPER OH VALLEY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 220556Z - 221200Z POTENTIAL FOR HOURLY SNOW RATES APPROACHING 1-1.5 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND/OH. ADDITIONALLY...POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING .05-.10 INCH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TOWARD 12Z OVER SRN OH INTO WRN WV. 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE DEEPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST WITH EMBEDDED LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT TAKING THIS LEAD FEATURE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT WHILE STRONGER...UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG/JUST N OF THE OH RIVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD DISTURBANCE. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD DOWNSTREAM FROM LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SRN WI/NRN IL INTO SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND AND NWRN OH. LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL CURRENTLY FROM JVL SEWD THROUGH THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TO NEAR SBN WHERE VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE ARE COMMON. 3-4 MB/2 HR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THIS SAME AREA /PER CURRENT MESOANALYSIS/ SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF STRONG...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL MOTION OWING TO COUPLING OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL DCVA. EXPECT AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND NRN PORTIONS OF IND/OH. HERE...PERSISTENT... DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL SUPPORT HOURLY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING 1-1.5 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG SWLY 45-55 KT LLJ AXIS MAY SUFFICIENTLY WARM 1-2 KM AGL LAYER TO SUPPORT POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 12Z OVER PORTIONS OF SERN OH INTO WRN WV. FARTHER W...SNOW RATES WILL DIMINISH OVER SRN WI/NRN IL BY 08-09Z AS STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. ..MEAD.. 01/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43928889 43348683 42208245 41648047 39758016 38758092 38398205 38728501 39208676 41739049 43469050 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 12:40:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 07:40:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501221242.j0MCgWDj017814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221241 NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-221845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI/NRN IND/PA/WRN NY/MD/NJ/DE/NRN VA/WV CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 221241Z - 221845Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE/SPREAD FROM THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WITH HOURLY RATES 1-2"/HR WITH LOCALLY 3"/HR POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH TO COLUMBUS TO DAYTON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS SHOW TWO DISTINCT UPPER CIRCULATION CENTERS...WITH THE MAIN FORCING FOR LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS FOCUSED OVER THE OH VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE NRN CYCLONIC CENTER NOW ENTERING CNTRL IL WILL BECOME DOMINANT...WITH A "DUMBBELLING" EFFECT EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE SRN CIRCULATION OVER NRN IND ROTATES CYCLONICALLY AROUND IT. SEVERAL FACTORS WILL COMBINE TODAY TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE IL JETSTREAK...WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE NOSE OF A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND STRONG PVA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS / 240 METER FALLS / BY 00Z. IN THE SHORTER TERM...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND NRN OH. LONGER RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LIKELY PIVOT TO A MORE WSW/ENE ORIENTATION IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPSTREAM WAVE. THIS WILL KEEP AREAS LIKE DETROIT...ANN ARBOR AND LANSING IN AN AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR AN EXTENDED TIME. FARTHER SOUTH IN WAA ZONE...FZRA WILL BE DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A DAYTON OH WHEELING WV TO PIT LINE. FZRA/FZDZ ARE BEING REPORTED FROM CVG/LHQ/CKB...AND WITH CONTINUING WAA AND SUBFREEZING SFC TEMPS...POTENTIAL FOR FZRA EXISTS. FINALLY...WAA PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD PA/MD WITH PRECIPITATION OCCURRING MAINLY ALOFT. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW BEGINNING BETWEEN 12-14Z ACROSS MD/ERN PA...AND ONCE SNOW STARTS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 8-12 HOURS OF MOD/HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS AND FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EXISTS...GIVEN RECENT LIGHTNING OBSERVED OVER OH...THAT SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH THE 2-3"/HR RANGE BY MID MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. ..TAYLOR.. 01/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 43278694 43848568 43477903 42317462 40117399 38127522 38007912 38888006 39148116 39258187 39248354 40398562 41178673 42428733 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 18:59:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 13:59:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501221901.j0MJ1I6r009864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221900 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-222330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/SE NY/CT/WRN MA/NJ/DE/ERN MD CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 221900Z - 222330Z HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND EWD AND INTENSIFY ACROSS SE NY/CT/WRN MA AND MUCH OF NJ/DE THROUGH 21Z-00Z. RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE. WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ESE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH DRY SLOT SURGING EWD ACROSS WRN PA/WRN MD AT 18Z. SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES 1000 MB SFC LOW INVOF THE OH/PA BORDER...WITH 2-3 MB/HR PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA...AN INITIAL SIGN OF MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. 12Z PIT/IAD RAOBS AUGMENTED BY REGIONAL WSR-88D VADS REFLECTIVE OF WAA REGIME AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...WITH 50-60 KTS OF SWLY FLOW PRESENT IN 1-4 KM LAYER. PROGRESSIVELY EWD FOCUS OF THIS STRONG WAA REGIME/285K-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUGGESTS MDT/HEAVY SNOW TO EXPAND EWD ACROSS SE NY/CT/WRN MA/NJ/DE PRIOR TO 00Z. GIVEN STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT...18Z RUC SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A QUICK/DEEP SATURATION OF VERTICAL COLUMN ACROSS MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR...WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIOS OF 20:1 OR HIGHER WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS. ACROSS FAR ERN MD/DE/SRN NJ...CONSISTENT WITH SFC OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LOW LEVEL WARMING OBSERVED BETWEEN 12Z-18Z WAL RAOBS...18Z BASED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INITIAL MDT/OCNLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN AROUND/AFTER 21Z. ..GUYER.. 01/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 39457694 40307643 41647610 42947548 43217451 43247355 42897200 42247160 40867208 40407381 39827433 39317476 38537578 38847683 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 00:55:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 19:55:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501230058.j0N0w2Lb004085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230057 MAZ000-MEZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-230600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MA/SRN VT/SRN NH/CT/RI/FAR SW ME AND NYC METRO CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 230057Z - 230600Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS MA/SRN NH/SRN VT/CT/RI/FAR SW ME. HOURLY RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH RATES AS HIGH AS 3.0 IN/HR DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z ALONG AND SE OF BDL-BOS AXIS. ADDITIONALLY...NELY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. AS UPPER TROUGH RACES EWD OVER THE NRN APPALACHIANS...JET EXIT REGION ASSOCIATED UPPER DIV COUPLED WITH INTENSE LOW-MID LEVEL WAA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING SNOWFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 06Z. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE VA/DE COAST...WITH ESTIMATED 999 MB LOW PER NEAR-SHORE OBS/OCEAN BUOYS AT 00Z. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC LOW WILL CONTINUALLY DEEPEN/PROGRESS NEWD TO AROUND 50-75 MILES OFF THE ERN LONG ISLAND COAST BY 06Z. AS BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS IN NRN QUADRANT OF CYCLONE...21Z RUC DIAGNOSTICS PORTRAY INCREASING MID LEVEL /800 MB-600 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVER SRN ENGLAND BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...WITH ELEVATED EPV REDUCTION ZONE OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN 00Z WAL RAOB AND OBSERVED CG LIGHTNING EARLY THIS EVENING. IN PRESENCE OF WEAK STATIC STABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED WEST-EAST ORIENTED MESOSCALE BANDING WILL PROGRESSIVELY EXIST TOWARD 06Z /CONTINUING OVERNIGHT/. GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIOS OF 20:1 OR GREATER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW EFFICIENCY. ADDITIONALLY...21Z RUC SUGGESTS ELY 850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50 KTS OR GREATER ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z...HEIGHTENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. ..GUYER.. 01/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 42076983 41357001 40967174 40897237 40847362 40987383 42197325 43087276 43677166 43687094 43467044 42677015 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 06:35:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 01:35:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501230638.j0N6c8NJ004616@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230637 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230636 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-231230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/MA/NH/RI/CT/SRN AND CNTRL VT/SRN COASTAL ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD VALID 230636Z - 231230Z VERY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AS INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT CONSOLIDATES ACROSS THE REGION. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NH/ME/MA/RI. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING SECONDARY LOW SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...WITH REMNANTS OF PRIMARY CYCLONE ACROSS NRN PA. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF OFFSHORE COLD FRONT ARE IN THE MIDDLE 50S AND THIS MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW. INTENSE UPPER DYNAMICS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE SPREADING FROM NERN PA/ERN NY ACROSS CNTRL NEW ENGLAND AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD. AS UPPER AND LOWER DYNAMICS CONVERGE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 12Z...MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO OVER 80KT AND TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE INLAND ATOP SURFACE-BASED ARCTIC AIRMASS. LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION AND MAINTAIN ROBUST FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN 600-700MB...WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF HEAVY SNOW BANDS. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ETA/RUC AGREE THAT 06-12Z SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING SNOWFALL INTO PARTS OF NH/ME WHERE BANDED RADAR RETURNS WERE CURRENTLY INCREASING. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-40 KT WINDS REDUCING VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. FARTHER INLAND...FROM ERN NY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN VT...AND NWRN MA...EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN FRONTOGENETIC BAND THROUGH 12Z...LIKELY IN EXCESS OF MODEL FCSTS. ..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 01/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... 44037350 43147493 41467487 40757044 40706882 42436772 44176911 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 12:57:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 07:57:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501231300.j0ND05vH006729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231259 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231259 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-231900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0120 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND/CT/RI/SRN AND CNTRL NH/MA/DOWNEAST ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD VALID 231259Z - 231900Z HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR. THE HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH 18Z WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI/ERN MA/COASTAL NH AND DOWNEAST ME. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED UPPER CIRCULATION NOW OVER NRN NJ. MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD CAPE COD BY 18Z. LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM BOSTON INDICATES 65 KT WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1KM...WITH 45-50 KT FROM THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM CHATHAM MA. LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW NEAR THE BENCHMARK BUOY NEAR 40N/70W WHERE PRESSURE IS 983 MB...AND PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING 2-3MB/HR OVER THE LAST 6-12 HOURS. LONG RADAR LOOPS SHOW MAIN BAND OF HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS FROM NRN NJ NE TO SRN ME. THE BAND IS CLEARLY PIVOTING...AND WILL LIKELY ASSUME A MORE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION AS UPPER LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. CURRENT BAND SEEMS TO ALIGN WELL WITH 700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL MAXIMUM AND AS THIS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHEAST...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD LESSEN FIRST ACROSS LONG ISLAND/WRN MA LATER THIS MORNING. RECENT SNOWFALL OBSERVATION FROM PROVIDENCE RI SHOWS 4 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE LAST HOUR...SO IT SEEMS 2-4 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. SNOW WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST ME THROUGH THE 2-3 HOURS. FINALLY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS OF MA WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 KT HAVE BEEN COMMON OVERNIGHT...AND WHERE PVC RECENTLY REPORTED A 58 KT GUST. ..TAYLOR.. 01/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... 45346714 44097037 42967271 41397387 40687398 40397299 41047000 42886860 44056680 44796647 45266650 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 19:01:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 14:01:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501231903.j0NJ3u0X017738@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231902 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-232230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL ME/COASTAL NH/COASTAL MA CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 231902Z - 232230Z DECREASING SNOW RATES EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF MA/NH THROUGH 21Z...ALTHOUGH VERY STRONG NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. OCNLY HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS COASTAL ME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW RATES OF 1.0 IN/HR POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN COASTAL ME THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z. 18Z ANALYSIS FEATURES INTENSE CYCLONE WITH 980 MB PRESSURE APPROX 100 MILES ESE OF ACK BASED ON BUOY 44008/SHIP REPORT FROM KHRK. VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA/SFC OBS DEPICT HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW ONGOING ACROSS CAPE COD. CURRENT TRENDS/18Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGEST HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 21Z AS CYCLONE PROGRESSES NEWD. HOWEVER VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COMPOUND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AREAS OF MA/NH. WSR-88D VADS AT GYX/BOX EACH PORTRAY 50 KT NELY WINDS AROUND 1 KM LEVEL...WITH HISTORY OF OBSERVED 50+ KT GUSTS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON INVOF CAPE COD. ACROSS COASTAL ME...ALTHOUGH EXHIBITING A DIMINISHING TREND...SW-NE ORIENTED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /600 MB-800 MB/ IN NRN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED BANDING INVOF IMMEDIATE COASTAL ME...ESPECIALLY THE ERN COAST WHERE 1 IN/HR RATES ARE MOST LIKELY. CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING TRENDS IN BUOYS OFFSHORE ERN ME...18Z BASED RUC SUGGESTS NELY WINDS OF 50-60 KTS AT 850 MB DEVELOPING INTO MUCH OF COASTAL ME THROUGH 21Z-00Z...COMPOUNDING ONGOING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ..GUYER.. 01/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX... 45126707 44736694 44356772 43986871 43696958 43027053 42517067 42077028 41956989 41686982 41416976 41147001 41377068 41817104 42807108 43557064 44246978 44746851 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 01:11:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2005 20:11:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501290114.j0T1EnZQ005274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290044 GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-290645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL / CENTRAL AND NWRN GA / SERN TN CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 290044Z - 290645Z FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HRLY LIQUID RATES OF 0.05 - 0.10 IN. WILL BE LIKELY. 00Z BHM AND FFC SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE AROUND 850 MB WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN THIS WARM NOSE AS PRECIPITATION FALLS. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S F AS OF 00Z. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT. BROAD ZONE OF LIFT DUE TO DEEP DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES SLOWLY EWD. PRECIPITATION RATES MAY BE ENHANCED LATER TONIGHT AS THERMAL GRADIENT NEAR 850 LEVEL TIGHTENS OVER GA AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INCREASES LIFT WITHIN NW-SE ORIENTED ZONE. ..JEWELL.. 01/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 32868273 32248332 32168460 32798558 33438610 34368673 35088656 35598534 34988437 33918309  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 06:19:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 01:19:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501290622.j0T6MmBn026753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290622 TNZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-SCZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-291215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTR AND ERN TN/NERN AL/NRN GA/WRN NC CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 290622Z - 291215Z SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT IS UNFOLDING WITH ICING ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05 TO .10 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH A FRESHLY INJECTED ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AS FAR SOUTH AS SRN GA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW NOW OVER NE OK WILL REACH THE MO OZARKS BY 12Z...WITH A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO SPREAD EWD. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 60 KT BETWEEN 06-12Z...REINFORCING THE WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC EVIDENT IN 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA. ISENTROPIC LIFT...PARTICULARLY STRONG WITHIN THE 294-297K LAYER...WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION. 06Z SPECIAL SOUNDING FROM NASHVILLE SHOWS SEVERAL CHANGES FROM THE 00Z SOUNDING...INCLUDING STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING. NEARLY 40KT OF SLY FLOW IS PRESENT BELOW 850MB...INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING JET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...SO ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL CAUSE SFC TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. MOST LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY BELOW FREEZING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC FREEZING LINE AT 06Z ACTUALLY EXTENDS WELL INTO ECNTRL AL THROUGH SW/CNTRL GA...AND THIS LINE WILL SAG SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS GA. HEAVIEST ICING NEXT 4-6 HOURS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED OVER NRN GA/E CNTRL AL GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS OVER CNTRL AL. ENHANCEMENT NOTED IN IR IMAGERY OVER CNTRL AL SUGGESTS STRONGER LIFT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...TRANSLATING INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. OVER FAR WRN NC...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AFTER 09-10Z AS SNOW OR SLEET GIVEN SUBFREEZING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. ..TAYLOR.. 01/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB... 35778310 36148227 36558223 36718333 36438438 36008656 34628697 32918720 31968634 32058340 32818269 34078280 35478348 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 07:01:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 02:01:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501290704.j0T74kdK008297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290704 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290703 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-291100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO/SCNTRL IL/SRN IN CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 290703Z - 291100Z ...MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ECNTRL MO/PORTIONS OF SRN AND CNTRL IL... LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS CNTRL MO/SRN IL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A MIX OF SNOW/FZRA BEING REPORTED AT THE SFC. CONTINUED LIFT INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CNTRL MO COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARM NOSE PRESENT ON STL SOUNDINGS THROUGH 08Z WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH DYNAMIC LIFT...AND SO MOST OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET/SNOW. HOWEVER...NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING WITHIN WAA REGIME...NEAR LOU TOWARD 12Z...SO SOME FZRA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN IN/NCNTRL KY AS WELL. ..TAYLOR.. 01/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 40238981 39999169 38719249 37749189 37868894 37488745 37638601 37888451 39598486 40038769 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 12:29:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 07:29:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501291232.j0TCWcg4023618@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291231 OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-291830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OH VALLEY CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 291231Z - 291830Z FREEZING RAIN WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING .05 TO .15"/HOUR WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD FROM N-CNTRL/ERN KY INTO SRN OH THIS MORNING. FARTHER NW...HOURLY SNOW RATES APPROACHING 1"/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN/E-CNTRL IL INTO SRN/CNTRL IND THROUGH MID MORNING. A GENERAL DECREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR THEREAFTER. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS SWRN MO...WITH LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE TAKING THIS FEATURE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATER TODAY. PRIMARY DOWNSTREAM REGION OF PRECIPITATION FROM MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO CNTRL/ERN KY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG SYSTEM WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF 40-50 KT LLJ /PER REGIONAL VWPS/. HERE...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT SURFACE WET BULB FREEZING LINE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING NEWD WITH MAIN ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING FROM ERN KY NWD/NWWD INTO SERN IND AND FAR SWRN OH. AS LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT CORRESPONDING REGION OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FORCING TO SHIFT EWD...MAINTAINING PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER ERN KY INTO SRN OH. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN WITH PRECIPITATION RATES OF .05-.15"/HOUR POSSIBLE. FARTHER W OVER CNTRL/SRN IL INTO SRN IND...DEFORMATION AXIS/COLD CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS SLOWLY LIFTED NWD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW... WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN OBSERVED OVER E-CNTRL IL INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN IND. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES OVER WRN/CNTRL KY APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON NOSE OF DRY SLOT RAPIDLY ADVANCING NEWD INTO REGION. WHILE OVERALL PRECIPITATION INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING OWING TO WEAKENING OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCALIZED SNOW BURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW FROM N OF SLO EWD TO NEAR BMG WHERE A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR. ..MEAD.. 01/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38788954 39648876 39888535 39848267 39328171 36668281 36688393 38088495 38048820 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 12:51:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 07:51:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501291253.j0TCrwOe030654@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291253 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-291900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN TN/ERN AL/NRN AND CNTRL GA/SC/WRN NC/SWRN VA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN/HEAVY SNOW VALID 291253Z - 291900Z SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH MOD/HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NC/SC. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF AT LEAST 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING AND DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILER DATA SHOW A VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH ELY SFC FLOW VEERING TO WLY ALOFT...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 50 KT NOTED ON 12Z NASHVILLE SOUNDING. THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AOA 50 KT AS IT SHIFTS EWD OVER KY/ERN TN/GA BY 18Z. THE MAIN UPPER LOW/VORT MAX IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...NOW OVER THE MO OZARKS. STRONG LIFT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY...BOTH THROUGH DEEP DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE AND THROUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS SLY FLOW TRANSPORTS HIGH THETA-E AIR OVER THE SUBFREEZING AIRMASS. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING GENERALLY EAST OF A MDQ/ANB/ALX LINE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS AL. HOWEVER...IR IMAGERY INDICATES BANDS OF CLOUD/PRECIP SO PERIODIC FZRA IS LIKELY ACROSS ECNTRL AL. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATES CLASSIC FZRA SETUP WITH A DEEP WARM LAYER /TEMPS AROUND 5C BETWEEN 800-900MB/. THROUGH 18Z ACROSS GA/SC...FZRA SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS/MACON/AUGUSTA. MOD/HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR FROM NERN GA INTO GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG AREA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NC...WHERE POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WITH A DEEP DENDRITIC ZONE FAVORING HEAVY SNOW. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 700-750MB WHICH MAY SUPPORT MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW. FZRA WILL BE DOMINANT OVER ERN TN...UNTIL AROUND 16-17Z WHEN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN MAY OCCUR AS TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 33-35F IN SOME LOCATIONS. FINALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN IN THE FORM OF SLEET/SNOW ACROSS SWRN VA AND THE NC PIEDMONT BY MID/LATE MORNING. ..TAYLOR.. 01/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN... 37258171 36598471 33828697 31978592 31578437 32148240 32718114 34547903 36507814 37067883 37397942 37548057 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 18:41:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 13:41:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501291844.j0TIi7aA001639@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291843 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-OHZ000-292245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA / SC / NC / VA / WV / EXTREME ERN TN CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 291843Z - 292245Z LOCALLY HEAVY SLEET / SNOW / FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HOURLY LIQUID RATES OF 0.05 - 0.10 IN. BAND OF PRECIPITATION NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN KY INTO SWRN VA AND CENTRAL NC IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AND WILL SHIFT EWD INTO CENTRAL VA / CENTRAL AND ERN NC BY 00Z. AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION...PRECIP. TYPE WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF WRN AND CENTRAL NC...BUT MAY REMAIN A MIX OVER N-CENTRAL NC WITHIN CENTER OF SURFACE RIDGE WHERE COLD AIR IS DEEPEST. THIS AREA EXTENDS NWD INTO CENTRAL VA WHERE SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED AS WELL. FARTHER S...SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST WITHIN BROAD WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALOFT. ALSO...RUC AND ETA MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SECONDARY INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION BETWEEN 21-00Z FROM FAR WRN NC ACROSS NWRN SC AND INTO NERN GA...JUST AHEAD OF DRY SLOT. THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY OCCUR FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE OVER NRN GA THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ..JEWELL.. 01/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... 38908197 38808108 38888033 38617955 38387867 38067806 37237793 36257781 35167821 34347885 34047930 33388019 32918089 32938135 33298226 33368262 33248385 33208447 33868483 34478483 34718438 35088347 35308318 36258302 36508267 37008205 37438189 37878205 38458235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 19:50:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 14:50:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501291953.j0TJrDo6000757@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291952 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291952 AZZ000-292215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291952Z - 292215Z ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT IS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW. THIS AFTERNOON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD THROUGH AZ. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WITH -26 C AT 6 KM IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7.5 TO 8 C/KM. IN ADDITION TO COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE 70+ KT UPPER JET ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING 0-6 KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. COLD MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 01/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 33771286 33811151 33810988 32980954 31951051 32501297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 00:00:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 19:00:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501300003.j0U03shP001203@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300002 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-GAZ000-300600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN GA / NRN SC / MUCH OF CENTRAL NC / SRN VA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 300002Z - 300600Z FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM EXTREME NERN GA ACROSS NRN SC...CENTRAL NC AND SRN VA. HRLY RATES UP TO 0.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST AND LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER SC / NC AND VA THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. SURFACE FREEZING LINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH AS WARM / MOIST AIR LIFTS ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER PORTIONS OF SC AND NC AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES BENEATH MID LEVEL COOLING. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY BURSTS OF FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL BE OVER SC AND NC...WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. LOCAL HOURLY RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ..JEWELL.. 01/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...FFC... 35168272 35638209 36348165 36938155 37218137 37568119 37868112 38298072 38297971 38237744 37997708 37097761 36407790 35867837 35387882 34987912 34837964 34168050 33838154 33718230 33728263 34188295 34778304 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 06:57:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 01:57:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501300700.j0U70nw0020067@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300700 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300659 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-301300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN SC/INTERIOR NC/VA/ERN WV/MD/SRN PA/SRN NJ/DE CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN/WINTER PRECIPITATION TRENDS VALID 300659Z - 301300Z FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS/PORTIONS OF VA OVERNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING. IN ADDITION...A MIX OF SLEET/FZRA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF MD/NJ/DE/WV. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER SHORTWAVE ACROSS ERN KY...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NW WV BY 12Z. COOLING CLOUD TYPES ON IR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE IS BEING REALIZED AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE AS NOTED ON 06Z SOUNDING FROM GSO WHICH WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH 30-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING MOIST HIGHER THETA-E NWD. AT THE SFC...WEDGE OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH SFC FREEZING LINE FROM NEAR ATLANTA TO NW OF CHARLESTON SC TO RAH/RIC. SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT SFC TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...MODERATE FZRA WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS/VA. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FOR GA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST UVV BEING FOCUSED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND CNTRL VA. SPECIAL 06Z SOUNDING FROM STERLING VA DID CHANGE A LITTLE FROM THE 02Z RUN...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING NOTED AROUND 850MB. SFC OBSERVATIONS FROM THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS AND MOST OF DE INDICATE FZRA AND/OR SLEET THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH IS AN INDICATION THAT THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT IS MELTING OR PARTIALLY MELTING FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT /PER 40 KT SW WINDS FROM 06Z STERLING SOUNDING /...THE TREND OF PRIMARILY FZRA WITH SLEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS AGREES WITH THE NCEP SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MOST LIKELY PTYPE USING THE BALDWIN ALGORITHM. 06Z SOUNDING FROM GSO SHOWS A DEEP WARM INVERSION...WHICH WILL ENSURE THAT FZRA WILL BE THE DOMINANT PTYPE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES/HOUR LIKELY. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FROM WRN MD/PA AND SRN NJ ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS MOSTLY LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SLEET. ..TAYLOR.. 01/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CAE...GSP... 40187523 40347762 40397826 40167955 39778030 39508043 39028024 38378050 36318167 34838305 33848160 35127858 37407553 38847405 39627376 39987429 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 12:36:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 07:36:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501301239.j0UCdHKV001783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301238 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-301645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0135 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/MD/SERN PA/SRN NJ/DE CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 301238Z - 301645Z FZRA WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ICING POSSIBLE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WOUND UP UPPER LOW RAPIDLY PROGRESSING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH TROUGH AXIS NOW EAST OF ROANOKE PER LATEST VAD WIND PROFILER DATA. THIS IS FASTER THAN THE 06Z ETA...SO PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END EARLIER THAN EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO ERN NC/SERN VA...WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO IT IS ALL RAIN. FARTHER NORTH IN NRN VA/MD/DE...PRECIPITATION WHICH HAD BEEN FZRA RAIN ALL NIGHT...HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW OR A SNOW/SLEET MIX. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM ROANOKE SHOWS WARM LAYER HAS BEEN ERODED...AND THE 12Z STERLING VA SOUNDING SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE 06Z RUN. LOCATIONS IN SRN NJ/ERN SHORE OF MD SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW WHEN COOLER MID LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. ASIDE FROM THE LEADING BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NOW EXTENDING FROM MD/ERN VA/ERN NC...THE ONLY OTHER THREAT FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE COMMA HEAD IT MOVES THROUGH. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING JUST EAST OF ROANOKE...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT NOTED ON IR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACCELERATED SO MUCH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-LATE MORNING. ..TAYLOR.. 01/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 40337522 39757778 38577810 37907756 37547651 37917581 38187461 39417406 40467401 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 12:50:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 07:50:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200501301253.j0UCr7dD006311@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301252 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/NERN NM INTO THE OK AND NRN TX PNHDLS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 301252Z - 301845Z SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES APPROACHING 1-1.5 INCHES/HOUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WIDESPREAD EWD ALONG THE RATON MESA INTO THE WRN OK AND NWRN TX PNHDLS. CLOSED...MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NWRN NM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT TRANSLATES EWD INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR ABQ EWD ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE INTO THE TX PNHDL WHERE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT /OWING TO COUPLING OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WAA AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT/ IS OCCURRING. SNOW LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LVS TO DHT AS OF 12Z MAY TEND TO DEVELOP SWD WITH TIME AS THE STRONG ASCENT AND MELTING EFFECTS COOL VERTICAL COLUMN. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO NERN NM HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.5 C/KM OBSERVED IN THE 12Z AMA SOUNDING SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CO-LOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND SATURATION OF THAT PORTION OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAVORING DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH. THROUGH 18Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...POSSIBLY EWD ALONG THE RATON MESA WHERE HOURLY SNOW RATES COULD APPROACH 1-2 INCHES/HOUR. EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW TO ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WIDESPREAD EWD INTO THE NRN TX AND OK PNHDLS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM SLOWLY SPREADS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ..MEAD.. 01/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35750593 37020585 38500554 38620460 37870381 37250265 37040144 35990142 35480225 35290442 WWWW