[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 282211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282210 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-010415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 PM CST MON FEB 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PA...NJ...SRN NY...CT...RI...SRN NH/SRN
VT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 282210Z - 010415Z

PERIODS OF HVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES GREATER THAN 1 INCH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD FROM SERN PA...NJ/FAR SERN NY INTO MUCH OF
NCENTRAL/NERN PA...SRN NY AND CT/RI...MA AND SRN NH/SRN VT THROUGH
04Z.

A COALESCENCE OF UPPER FORCING FROM A VORT MAX OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. DEGREE OF
FOCUSED FRONTOGENETIC LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH
LAYER.../500-600 MB LAYER/ COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5
TO 7.5 DEG C/KM WILL FAVOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES FROM NRN NJ NEWD
INTO SERN NY...CT...RI...MA AND FAR SRN VT/SRN NH THROUGH 04Z. IN
THESE LOCATIONS SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FARTHER WEST...HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
MORE COMMON AS SOMEWHAT WEAKER VERTICAL MOTION AND LESSER LAPSE
RATES WILL EXIST. AS THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FORCING PROGRESSES NEWD
THROUGH THE REGION...HVY SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END ALONG A LINE
FROM RDG TO THE NYC METRO AREA TO SRN CT BY 03Z....WHILE DEVELOPING
ACROSS MA/CT AND RI BETWEEN THROUGH 02Z. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG WAA REGIME MAY LEAD TO A MIX OR CHANGE OVER
OF THE SNOW TO SLEET/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR IN NJ AS THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES IN.

..CROSBIE.. 02/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

39507486 39997407 40587364 40837199 41437056 42237056
42497083 42647367 42247682 41017724 40007590 

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