[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 270418
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270418 
FLZ000-270615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF
FLORIDA PENINSULA

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL 

VALID 270418Z - 270615Z

INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS.  THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FIELD...AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE
IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES.

CAPE IN 27/00Z SOUNDING FROM KEY WEST IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A 1000
J/KG...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WEAK SURFACE
FRONT...WHICH DELINEATES NORTHERN FRINGE OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F.  VEERING WIND PROFILES
WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER LEVELS...THOUGH ONLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH...ARE
ENHANCING SHEAR BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME.  THIS IS
SUPPORTING ROTATION IN MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WHICH MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS.  POTENTIAL FOR A
WATERSPOUT OR BRIEF WEAK TORNADO SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO
AREAS VICINITY OF  SURFACE BOUNDARY ...FROM NEAR KEY WEST...WEST
NORTHWESTWARD. BRIEF LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS
COULD...HOWEVER...ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL AREAS OF THE PENINSULA.

TOWARD THE 08-09Z TIME FRAME...MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION TO
BROADER SCALE SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA.  AS THIS OCCURS...DEEPER CONVECTION MAY BE
SUPPRESSED AND LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY DIMINISH.

..KERR.. 02/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...

24388181 24388269 24448336 24748385 25658357 25988305
25968259 25888205 25918174 25498125 24858119 24458140 

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