[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250839 
FLZ000-251045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 250839Z - 251045Z

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
QUICKLY APPROACHING THE FL PENINSULA...PER EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SPREADING EAST. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...ACROSS THE WARMER GULF WATERS...SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM
ELEMENTS HAVE EVOLVED IN A LOOSELY ORGANIZED FASHION FROM NEAR LEVY
COUNTY...TO WELL WEST OF THE TPA REGION.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
FAVOR AN EWD MOTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BUT OBSERVED
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. 
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD CONFINE MEANINGFUL STORM ROTATION TO
THAT REGION WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE RESULTING IN ONLY A MINIMAL
THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS.

..DARROW.. 02/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...

29208298 29528209 29178185 28808219 27978248 28038283 

WWWW