[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212250 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-212345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AL INTO CENTRAL/SRN GA AND NRN FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212250Z - 212345Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AL INTO CENTRAL/SRN GA.  WW NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS REGION...WITH GREATER SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN AL/NRN HALF OF GA INTO SC.

SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE/SRN AL NEWD INTO CENTRAL GA. 
ALTHOUGH AIRMASS IS CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AT 35-40 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500 TO AROUND 1000
J/KG...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AS INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS. 
STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS PRIOR TO AIR MASS
STABILIZATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY FOR HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 02/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

31048763 31588716 32538473 33148368 32878176 31928193
31148341 30838467 30838679 

WWWW